Geometry Section 0-3 1112

SECTION 0-3
Simple Probability

Thursday, September 8, 2011

ESSENTIAL QUESTION

• How do you ﬁnd the probability of simple events?


VOCABULARY
1. Experiment:

2. Trial:
3. Outcome:
4. Event:
5. Probability:
6. Theoretical Probability:

7. Experimental Probability:


VOCABULARY
1. Experiment: An activity that produces data that is
observed and recorded
2. Trial:
3. Outcome:
4. Event:
5. Probability:



VOCABULARY
2. Trial: One single performance of the experiment
3. Outcome:
4. Event:
5. Probability:



VOCABULARY
3. Outcome: The result of one trial
4. Event:
5. Probability:



VOCABULARY
4. Event: A collection of outcomes of an experiment
5. Probability:



VOCABULARY
5. Probability: The likelihood that something will occur



VOCABULARY
6. Theoretical Probability: What you expect should occur in
an experiment


VOCABULARY
6. Theoretical Probability: What you expect should occur in
an experiment
7. Experimental Probability: What actually occurs when
you conduct an experiment

PROBABILITY


PROBABILITY

The likelihood that something will occur


PROBABILITY

The likelihood that something will occur

number of favorable outcomes
P(E) =
number of possible outcomes


QUESTION


QUESTION

What is the difference between theoretical and
experimental probability?


EXAMPLE 1
You roll one six-sided die. What is the probability of rolling a
number greater than 4?


EXAMPLE 1

P(# > 4)


EXAMPLE 1

2
P(# > 4) =
6


EXAMPLE 1

2 1
P(# > 4) = =
6 3


EXAMPLE 1

2 1
P(# > 4) = = or
6 3


EXAMPLE 1

2 1 1
P(# > 4) = = or 33 %
6 3 3


EXAMPLE 2
A bag of lollipops has 4 orange, 6 grape, 2 watermelon, and 5
cherry lollipops. Find the following probabilities of getting a
random lollipop.
a. P(grape) b. P(not watermelon)

c. P(orange or cherry)


EXAMPLE 2
random lollipop.
6
17


EXAMPLE 2
random lollipop.
6 15
17 17


EXAMPLE 2
random lollipop.
6 15
17 17
9
17

EXAMPLE 3
Find a coin and ﬂip it 20 times. Keep track of how many
heads and tails you ﬂip in the table. Then answer the
questions based on your results.


EXAMPLE 3

Outcome Heads Tails

Tally

Frequency


EXAMPLE 3

Outcome Heads Tails
n
ow
yo ur
Tally do nt!!!
to me
ed eri
ne xp
You e
Frequency


EXAMPLE 3
a. What percentage of heads were you expecting before you
performed your experiment?

b. What percentage of heads did you actually have in your
experiment?


EXAMPLE 3
Hopefully, you expected 50%. Why should you expect this?

experiment?


EXAMPLE 3
Hopefully, you expected 50%. Why should you expect this?

experiment?
Answers will vary. Why is that?


PROBLEM SET


PROBLEM SET

p. P9 #1-23 odd

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t
be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people’s
thinking. Don’t let the noise of other’s opinions drown out your own
inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your
heart and intuition. ey somehow already know what you truly want
to become. Everything else is secondary.” - Steve Jobs

Geometry Section 0-3 1112

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