Presentation about my PhD projects.

1. Linking thoughts to flows
Integrated modeling of Social Ecological Systems
Martin Wildenberg
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 1

2. Structure of this talk
- Introduction:
- Modeling social-ecological systems (SES)
- Some examples of integrated SES models
- Modeling in LTSER Platforms
- Model of Kamorta Island, Nicobars
- Fuzzy Cognitive Modeling
- Sustainability Indicator: Integration of models
- Integrated Modeling
- Partizipation
- Process oriented modeling…
- Outlook
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 2

3. Social Ecological Systems
Complex
Adaptive
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4. We are part of them…
and that's what makes them
especially messy
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5. Let´s zoom in…
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6. Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 6

7. Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 7

8. Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 8

9. Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 9

10. Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 10

11. •Human behavior
•Communication
•Learning
•Local knowledge
Important for
formulation &
application of SES
- model
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 11

12. Modeling in LTSER platforms
LTSER:
Focus on coupled socio-ecological systems
Link biophysical processes to governance
and communication
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 12

13. SERD
(Simulation of Ecological Compatibility of Regional Development)
Veronika Gaube, Heidi Adensam, Julia Lutz, Tina Kaiser, Andreas Richter, Helmut Haberl
• Analysis links between socio-economic
dynamics and substance, material and energy
flows
• Understand reasons and impacts of long-term
changes in economic and social dimension, land
use and ecosystems.
• Contribute to local sustainable development:
Involvement and support of the local
stakeholders.
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 13

14. The Casestudy Area
LTSER Platform Eisenwurzen
•99 Municipalities
•5.740 km²
•304.762 Inhabitants
•Forest Cover = 64%
Reichraming
Eisenwurzen
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 14

15. Reichraming
The municipality:
• 103km²
• 80% Forest
• 356 m – 2000m
• National-park Kalkalpen
• 1880 people
• Decreasing Population
The farms:
• Average size: 20ha
• Family owned (extended
families)
• Greenland / milk cows
• Highly dependent on subsidies
• Decreasing number of Farms
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 15

16. Landscape I
Extensive land-use leads to:
• Small structured landscapes
• Extensive species rich meadows
• Hedgerows
• Forest on steep slopes
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17. Landscape II
Forest:
• Long (historical) period of
deforestation
• After breakdown of industry
reforestation
• Continuing today
• Mostly intensive forest: species poor
spruce monoculture
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18. Land use 1900
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19. Land use 2001
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20. Model concept
External conditions
Socio-economic / political Environmental conditions
framework e.g. climate
Agent-based module
farms Integrated stock-flow
tourism module
firms
municipality Socio-economic stocks/flows
(humans, livestock, artifacts)
Land use Ecological stocks flows
(forests, grasslands, cropland)
Land cover
Socio- Land-use Changes in material/
economic change energy flows
change Model outputs
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21. Behavior of the Farm Agents
Farms aim to
• maintain the cultivation
• achieve at least a minimum of income
• achieve at least a minimum of leisure
time
Farms percept framework conditions like
• spatial characteristics of their land
• subsidies
• product prices
• production costs
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 21

22. Behavior of the Farm Agents
Possible reactions are
• Ex- or intensification of production
• organic production
• increase/Decrease of farm size
• change of type of production
• increase/Decrease of non-agricultural labour
time
• increase/Decrease of external wage labour
• abandonment of farm
Interaction
• via land market
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 22

23. Participatory process
• Questionnaire for farmers
• 6 in-depth interviews with farmers
• 6 expert interviews
• 3 stakeholder workshops
• 2 focus groups with women of the
municipality
• 3 working groups with farmers
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24. User Interface
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25. Three Scenarios
TREND
GLOB
LOC
+ Base Run
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26. Trend Scenario
More farms
Less forestation (-15%)
Households increase: 10%
Less commuters
Highest GHG emissions &
Nitrogen loss form farms
Land-use today
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 26

27. GLOB Scenario
Less farms – extensive, high
workloads
More forestation
Households decrease
More commuters +75%
Lowest GHG & Nitrogen
emissions form farms
Land-use today
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 27

28. LOC Scenario
Less farms – extensive, high
workloads
less forestation (-15%)
Households increase
Less commuters
Medium GHG & Nitrogen
emissions form farms
Land-use today
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29. Another region, another topic, similar challenges:
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30. Waves of change
Modelling the Nicobar
Islands
in the Aftermath of the
2004 Sumatra Tsunami
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 30

31. RECOVER
(research on coping with vulnerability to environmental risk)
Simron J. Singh, Willi Haas, Marina Fischer - Kowalski
Understand how natural, cultural and institutional features
determine the resilience of local socio-ecological systems.
Explore the potential linking between functional tools and
tools dealing with meaning, human preferences and
choice.
Scientific support for the planning, implementation and
evaluation of reconstruction and development options
after the 2004 Tsunami that maintain the social and
cultural integrity of the indigenous population and the
balance of the natural environment.
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32. Workpackages of Recover
Modelling
Intervention Theory
Development
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33. 2004 Tsunami
More then 4000 dead Almost all Houses destroyed & infrastructure damaged
coconut plantations destroyed Reef & coast topology changed
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34. The Second Wave
Over 60 NGOs (in Port Blair) desperately wanting to spend millions of US$. Unrepresented inflow of money &
commodities.
The Nicobars - A badly hit region or a promising “development market”?
Some Side Effects of Aid:
Change in Family structure, Social coherence, Conflicts over land, increasing social stratification, change in Consumption
and Production patterns…
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35. Integrating different levels in RECOVER
Level Focus Target group Tools
Island Ecological constraints Tribal Council Integrated
Biophysical Administration Model
constraints NGOs
Market
Village Cooperate societies SIF (NGO) Village Planning
Production (best mix) council Tool
Cooperate societies
Household What do people Determines other Participative
want? levels Data
Cultural constraints Collection &
Lifestyle changes
Time use Participative
observation
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36. Model Components
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37. Screenshot of the Model
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38. Results I
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Presentation land-cover and land-use – 2005, 2015, 2025 and 2035.

39. Results II
Available, required and desired working times per adult. Required working
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, time for subsistence and market oriented activities.
time includes University of Maine | 39

40. Lets get softer…
a tool for integrated modelling of SES
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 40

41. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping
How does it work?
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 41

42. Experience from FCM projects
Six case studies accross
LTSER Plattforms
FCM as eductaional tool at
the PIK Summerschool
Vulnerability of Indian cities
towards extreme weather
events (ongoing)
www.FCMappers.net
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43. Structured data collection
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44. Visual comparison of maps
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45. Social Learning & Education
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46. Vulnerability to climate change
Collective Fuzzy cognitive map of professionals interviewed in Delhi
(Diana Reckien et al.)
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47. Simulation of future scenarios for the
Eisenwurzen
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 47

48. FCM Simulation in a nutshell
= value of concept Ci at iteration step k+1
Ai( k +1)
(
N = value of concept Ci at iteration step k
Ai( k +1) = Ai( k ) + ∑ A(j k ) w ji )
(k )
A i
(k )
= value of concept Cj at iteration step k
j ≠i A j
j =1
w ji = weight of the link between Ci and Cj
First iteration Seconde iteration
Interaction
Activation Matrix
Vector C1 Cn
C1 C1 C1 Cn C1
C1 C1
X = =
X
Cn
Vector contains values
Cn Cn Cn Cn …
Matrix contains weights of Vector contains values
representing the state of the
relations between concepts representing the state of the
concept
concept after one iteration

49. Again the three scenarios
TREND
GLOB
LOC
+ Base Run
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 49

50. P ro te c te d N a tu ra l P ro p e rty
N a tu ra l L a n d s c a p e
F o re s t a t io n
N o . o f F a rm s
A g ric u lt u ra l In c o m e
P o p u la t io n
Q u a lity o f L iv e
T o u ris m C o m p a n ie s
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 50
Base Run
W o rk p la c e s
In d u s t ry
N e g a t iv e
P o s itiv e

51. P ro te c te d N a tu ra l P ro p e rty
N a tu ra l L a n d s c a p e
F o re s t a t io n
N o . o f F a rm s
A g ric u ltu ra l In c o m e
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P o p u la t io n
Q u a lit y o f L iv e
T o u ris m C o m p a n ie s
Trend
W o rk p la c e s
In d u s t ry
N e g a t iv e
P o s itiv e

52. P ro te c te d N a tu ra l P ro p e rty
N a tu ra l L a n d s c a p e
F o re s t a tio n
N o . o f F a rm s
A g ric u lt u ra l In c o m e
P o p u la t io n
Q u a lit y o f L iv e
T o u ris m C o m p a n ie s
W o rk p la c e s
In d u s t ry
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 52
N e g a tiv e
P o s itiv e
Glob

53. P ro te c te d N a tu ra l P ro p e rty
N a tu ra l L a n d s c a p e
F o re s t a t io n
N o . o f F a rm s
A g ric u ltu ra l In c o m e
P o p u la tio n
Q u a lit y o f L iv e
T o u ris m C o m p a n ie s
W o rk p la c e s
In d u s t ry
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 53
N e g a tiv e
P o s it iv e
Loc

54. Comparison of results with ABM
High overlap in predicted trends
for three scenarios
Predicted trend in Farmers
income is seen in 2008
Statistical Data
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 54

55. What can Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping offer?
• Structured participative process
• Social learning
• Communication between participants
• Depict complex systems as perceived by
different stakeholders
• Mapping of complex systems
• Analysis
• Comparing qualitative data
• Modeling & scenarios
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56. Pros - Cons
• (- )No time, no quantitative
results
• (+) more process oriented
• (+) participative
• (+) faster
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57. The Sustainability-Programm of GLOBAL 2000
Objectives:
Labeling of (conventional) products which are produced more sustainable then comparable
products
Develop measurable indicators
Information for costumers
Information and recommendations for producer
Initiate progress towards sustainability
Less resource use
Less emissions
Less environmental impact
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58. Calculating indicators: Integrating MIPS with REPRO
Bilances (N,P,H)
Pest management intensity Repro-model
Energy intensity
Erosion from INL
Soil compaction
Farm Distributor Retailer
Water, abiotic, biotic, CO2 footprint, area footprint / kg product
Footprint calculation in DB
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59. Most important:
Willing participants!
So, it is not just about
collecting data and
analysing it…
It is about a PROCESS…
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60. Discussion and involvment of stakeholders:
Learning from praxis
– What are the day to day problems faced by farmers?
– What do the stakeholders perceive as sustainability problems?
– What are workable solutions?
=> Work out guidelines to progress towards sustainable production
Ensure good data quality
– Make data collection as easy as possible! This reduces workload and avoids
misunderstandings!
– Ask the stakeholders what data has to be estimated and what data they already have
measure for
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61. First results for strawberries:
Ressourcenverbrauch Erdbeeren
9000 100
8000 biotisch, g/ 1 kg 90
Produkt
abiotisch, g/ 1 kg 80
7000
Produkt
g/kg Produkt; cm²/kg Produkt
Fläche, cm²/1 kg 70
6000 Produkt
/ / kg Product
literL kg Produkt
CO2e, g/ 1 kg 60
5000 Produkt
Wasser, l/ 1 kg 50
4000 Produkt
40
3000
30
2000
20
1000 10
0 0
Freiland, At Folientunnel, Israel Folientunnel, Es Gewächshaus, At
Wildenberg – Presentation at the SSI, University of Maine | 61

62. Challenges:
• Enable win-win situation
• Programme must be applicable for the broad
market
• Transparent and scientific approach
• Workload for producers – remuneration?
• Setting of benchmarks
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63. Part III
Integrated modeling
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64. So, what is an integrated model?
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65. And how can integration be achievd?
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66. A integrated model integrates…
- two (or more) independent models
- knowledge from different disciplines
- people from different disciplines
- scientists and “other” people
- theory and praxis
- different modelling methodes (ABM,
SD, GIS)
- Different types of data (qualitative &
quantitative)
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67. Models can integrate:
• people
• topics
• knowledge
• technology
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68. Integrating people, topics and knowledge: constructing
models in iterative loops
Simulation
System model
(e.g. integrates agents
with stocks and Modeling
flows)
Formalization Scenarios
Results
Heuristic model, visualization of results
Interpretation Agents, activities
of local Stocks-flows
knowledge Landscape
Etc.
Conclusions
acceptance
Stakeholders involved in modeling process
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69. Lessons learned:
• Important to involve actors in the modeling
process right from the beginning
• Acceptance of the model among the
stakeholders very high
• Models can structures the discussion process
during the whole process
• The model helps the stakeholders to understand
“their” system better
• The model development process is an important
focus of the research
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70. The modeling process
Always iterative
Integration:
Develop methods that help
structure this process.
Use models as form of
communication
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71. Building blocks for Integration
Build common understanding of usability
Interface Similar functionalities & appearance
Common way of describing models (e.g. ODD)
Definition of interface to higher and lower scales
Formal Model Modular design
Keep other models in mind
Evaluation of basic analytic tools
Conceptual Model Typologies of SES
Development of consistent SES theory
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72. There are common
challenges in the creation of
useful SES models
To handle most of them some form of
integration is required.
To integrate between models or modelers
a common fundament is needed.
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73. Thank you!
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74. Decision finding process of each farm
Ecological
dimension
Social Economic
dimension dimension
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75. ODD
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