botanic gardens, meta-analysis, use of networks in ecology, conservation of biodiversity, species-people correlation, sudden oak death, Phytophthora ramorum, network epidemiology, geographical genetics, scale-dependence of the species-people correlation, invasion of plant pathogens, plant health and global change, sustainability,

1. Networks, plant health and
biodiversity
Marco Pautasso
FRB, Paris, 28 April 2011

2. Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(c)
(a) (c)
log10 spp richness (n)
(d) (yr)
(b)
(d)
from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

3. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

4. Global biodiversity patterns: vascular plants
from Barthlott et al. (2007) Erdkunde

5. Bird abundance surveys with indication of plot area
abundance (individuals)
(c)
Log10 assemblage
Log10 plot area (km2)
Log10 plot area (km2)
Survey year
from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005, 2006) Ecology Letters and Global Ecology & Biogeography

6. Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation
Araujo
(2003)
McKinney GEB
(2003)
Moreno-
Biol Cons
Rueda & Ding et al.
Pizarro (2008)
(2006) J
Ecol Res
Vazquez Hunter Biogeog
& Gaston (2006) & Jonzon
Biodiv & Cons (1993) CB
Balmford
et al. (2001)
Science
Real et al. Chown et al. Luck (2007)
(2003) J Diniz-Filho et al. (2003) Ecol Appl J Biogeog
Biogeog (2006) Acta Oecol
World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis
by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission

7. Random sample of 100 papers per year
on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

8. A positive species-people correlation
for vascular plants in US counties
4
log10 vascular plant spp richness (n)
2
n = 2877, r = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001
3
2
1
2 3 4 5 6 7
log10 human population size (n)
Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora

9. Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative
birds in Florence
from: Chiari et al. (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology

10. Does sampling bias explain the positive
regional species-people correlation?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

11. US counties with (•) or without (o)
Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

12. Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world
passengers
From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)

13. Some recent applications of network theory
Network pictures from: NATURAL
Newman (2003)
SIAM Review food webs
cell
metabolism
neural Food web of Little Rock
networks Lake, Wisconsin, US
ant nests sexual
partnerships
DISEASE
SPREAD
family
innovation networks
Internet flows co-authorship HIV
structure railway urban road nets spread
electrical networks networks network
power grids telephone calls
WWW
computing airport Internet E-mail
committees
grids networks software maps patterns
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

14. Examples of invasions of plant pathogens
From Brown & Hovmøller (2002) Science

15. Phytophthora
Map from www.suddenoakdeath.org ramorum in the
Kelly, UC-Berkeley
US: forest
outbreaks vs.
national risk
Hazard map from
Koch & Smith (2007)
III SOD Science
Symposium

16. from: McKelvey, Koch & Smith (2008) SOD Science Symposium III

17. Importance of trace-forward data
in networks of plant movements
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

18. Multi-scale correlation of human presence and
Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence
from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology

19. Sudden Oak Death in Sudden Larch Death
California in SW-England
from Brasier & Webber (2010) Nature

21. Phytophthora ramorum in England & Wales
Source: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

22. Network of co-occurrences at infected sites (England & Wales, 2003-2005)
of plant genera susceptible to Phytophthora ramorum
from: Pautasso et al. (2008) Proceedings of the 3rd SOD Science Symposium

23. A very short overview of network theory
Minor and Urban (2008) Conservation Biology

24. Different types of networks
local small-world
random scale-free
modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface

25. Degree distribution of nodes in a scale-free network
based on a reconstruction of
the UK foot-and mouth
disease network.
Fitted line:
y= 118.5x -1.6,
R2 = 0.87
from: Shirley & Rushton (2005) Epidemiology & Infection

26. Clustering vs. path length
local small-world random
clustering
path
length
local small-world random
modified from: Roy & Pascual (2006) Ecological Complexity

27. Biodiversity conservation at the interface between disciplines
Kiss et al. (2010) Journal of Informetrics

28. Simple model of spread and establishment in a network
pt probability of transmission
pp probability of persistence
node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100
step 1
step 2
step 3
…
step n
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

29. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks
with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
1.00
local
probability of persistence
random
0.75 small-world
scale-free (two-way)
scale-free (uncorrelated)
0.50 scale-free (one way)
0.25
0.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Epidemic probability of transmission
does not
develop Epidemic develops
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

30. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks
(unless networks are sparsely connected)
N replicates = 100;
error bars are St. Dev.;
different letters show
sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology

31. Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of
starting node increases with network connectivity
from: Pautasso
et al. (2010) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;
Ecological
Complexity different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05

32. Proportion of
producers/
wholesalers/
retailers
in networks
depending on:
a) category
definition,
b) network
structure and
c) connectance
N replicates = 100;
error bars
are St. Dev.
from:
Pautasso et al. (2010)
Journal of Applied Ecology

33. Correlation between proportion of producers (wholesalers)
and correlation between links in and out of nodes
from: Pautasso et al. Journal of Applied Ecology (2010) N replicates = 100

34. Plant health and stakeholder engagement
MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security

35. Plant health policy/governance quadrangle
e
anc
e rn
g ov values
economists policy makers
prioritisation
consultation/
is
engagement
l ys
na
im
a
pa
k
ris
ct
s
risk perception
experts publics
From Mills et al. (in press) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

36. Human inequality and biodiversity threat
from Holland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology

37. International horticultural networks
(European trade in ornamental plants)
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

38. Nurseries as hubs
Brenn et al. (2008) Mycological Research

39. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
Pinus pinea
from Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution

40. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
Taxus wallichiana
from Gao et al. (2007) Molecular Ecology

41. Acknowledgements
Diego
Kevin
Fontaneto,
Gaston,
Mike McKinney, Stockholm
Sheffield Ingrid
Knoxville
Susanne Fritz, Parmentier,
Copenhagen Bruxelles
Peter
Weisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu
London Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline Lorenzo
Reno Pecher,
Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini,
Bozen Padova
Ottmar Alessandro
Birgit & Florian Schlick- Tom
Holdenrieder, Claude Steck, Chiarucci, Harwood,
Zurich Birmensdorf Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra

42. References
Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling
artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447
Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural
industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15
Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness
patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105:
689-696
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic
threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &
Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.
Phytopathology 101: 392-403
Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,
Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189
Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human
population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340
Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness
patterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica Helvetica 117: 15-28
Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor
of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432
Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size
directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309