Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Network epidemiology, landscape pathology and macroecology: three new tools for global change science


Published on

Three new tools for global change science, epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory, pathogen spread through trade

Published in: Education
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Network epidemiology, landscape pathology and macroecology: three new tools for global change science

  1. 1. Network epidemiology, landscape pathology & macro-ecology: three new tools for global change science Marco Pautasso, Division of Biology,Imperial College London, Silwood Campus, UK 7 May 2008
  2. 2. number of passengers per dayfrom: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS
  3. 3. Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory NATURALNetwork pictures from:Newman (2003) SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALModified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
  4. 4. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks SIS Model, 100 Nodes, directed networks, constant n of links p [i (x, t)] = Σ {p [s] * p [i (y, t-1)] + p [p] * p [i (x, t-1)]} 1.00p [p] local probability of persistence Epidemic develops 0.75 small-world random 0.50 scale-free 0.25 Epidemic does not develop 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 probability of transmission p [s]from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
  5. 5. Sudden Oak Death in Californiafrom Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
  6. 6. Pathogen spread through trade Trace forward/back zipcode Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site Hold releasedSource: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
  7. 7. A plant disease-human population correlation? log number of plants affected by log1010 numberof plants affected by 5 5 Erwinia amylovora (2002-2007) Erwinia amylovora (2002-2007) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 3 2 4 3 5 4 6 5 -2 log10 human population density of CH municipality (n km ) log10 human population size of CH municipality (n)from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.), N affected municipalities = 1023 (out of 2762),data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation
  8. 8. Fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland 1995 1999 2003 2007From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation
  9. 9. Fire blight persistence from year to year in Swiss municipalities (2003-2007) 4 5 n = 160, y = 0.41x + 0.41, r2 = 0.17, p < 0.0001 2 n = 163, y = 0.42x + 1.15, r = 0.16, p < 0.0001 by Erwinia amylovora (2004) by Erwinia amylovora (2005) 4log10 n plants affected log10 n plants affected 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2003) log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2004) 4 5 by Erwinia amylovora (2007) 2 2 n = 204, y = 0.45x + 0.46, r = 0.27, p < 0.0001 n = 238, y = 0.26x + 1.39, r = 0.04, p = 0.001 by Erwinia amylovora (2006) log10 n plants affected 4 log10 n plants affected 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 log 10 n plants affected by Erw inia am ylovora (2005) log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2006)from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.),data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation
  10. 10. Potential effects of climate change onthe disease trianglefrom: Jeger & Pautasso (2008) New Phytologist
  11. 11. Species-people correlation: sampling bias?from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  12. 12. Vascular plants in US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens • N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001 o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  13. 13. number of passengers per dayfrom: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS
  14. 14. Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
  15. 15. AcknowledgementsPeter Weisberg,Univ. of Nevada, Joel Ingrid Cohen, Kevin Parmentier, Reno, US Gaston, Rockefeller Univ. of Univ., US Univ. of Mike Jeger, Bruxelles, Sheffield Imperial College, Belgium Silwood Park Mike McKinney, Univ. ofHolger Kreft, Tennessee, US Ottmar Alessandro ChiarucciUniv. of California, Holdenrieder, Univ. of Siena, ItalySan Diego, US ETHZ, CH
  16. 16. ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecologyfor a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: fromgenes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L,Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology &Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development?Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling forsampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the worlds botanicgardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications forlandscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks.Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories.Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of streammacroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P.kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, andclustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
  17. 17. References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italys regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32:504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127:1-22Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. EcologicalComplexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. Jof Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M,Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology andEvolution 19, 8: 446-452