Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum incidence and spread in the UK

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Spatio-temporal analysis of Phytophthora ramorum cases in England and Wales, spatially-explicit simulations, plant trade network, epidemic threshold. Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests andchallenges for future plant health. Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management

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Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum incidence and spread in the UK

  1. 1. Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum incidence and spread in the UK Tom Harwood, Marco Pautasso*, Xiangming Xu, Mike W. Shaw & Mike J. Jeger* *Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, SL5 7PY, UK International Congress of Plant Pathology nr 10, Torino (Italy) August 2008
  2. 2. Phytophthora ramorum in England & Wales (2003-2006) 511 nurseries/ 168 historic gardens/ garden centres woodlands 122 85 46 426Climatic match courtesy of Outbreak maps courtesy ofRichard Baker, CSL, UK David Slawson, PHSI, DEFRA, UK
  3. 3. Spatial analysis – aggregation of nurseries & garden centres a: G arden/N ursery 2003 b: G arden/N ursery 2004 5 5 4 4 3 3g11 values 2 2 1 1 0 0 c: G arden/N ursery 2005 d: G arden/N ursery 2006 5 12 4 8 3g11 values g11 values 2 4 1 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 D istance (km ) D istance (km )
  4. 4. SimulationsLog (total numbers of infected plants after 10 years)Source of variation df MS VR PBetween locations 9 1774 694 <0.001Allowing for differences between locations R 1 18270 7147 <0.001 commerce 1 2087 817 <0.001 inspections 1 49 19 <0.001 R.commerce 1 126 49 <0.001Other interactions very small and non-significantResidual 3983 2.56
  5. 5. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
  6. 6. ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticulturalindustry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked networkand grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of PlantPathology 122: 111-126MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests andchallenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemicthreshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010)Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictorof epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-sizedirected trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen(Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516

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