Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility

Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility
Introduction Myriad decisions affront us every day. Each decision is decomposable into sub–decisions. For instance, consider the mental turmoil (or
apathy) required to determine whether you shall go grocery shopping. First, you determine an initial need for grocery shopping (i.e., you are out of
milk, eggs, etc.). Next, you consider what you would rather do––an evaluation of utility. This cost–benefit analysis continues until shopping or staying
is perceived with marginally greater utility. Though these calculations require a second or so in your mind, in decomposing this choice, one finds a
series of individual decisions contributing to the final. These sub–decisions may "How much is milk worth my going to the store?" or "How much
does this television show dissuade me from going to the store?" However, one can go deeper still. In answering each of the above sub–questions, you
subconsciously evaluate the options on a scale of utility. Consider this concept though: for any arbitrarily selected value on that scale, you must
subconsciously "decide" if the value is satisfactory–a boolean decision (see Fig. 1). Additionally, all but the lowest layer of sub–decisions are
considerable as independent decisions in different contexts. Accordingly, these decisions are likewise decomposable to final boolean decisions,
assuming all high level "decisions" are decomposable. Also note these boolean decisions are never consciously considered in first order as that requires
additional levels
... Get more on HelpWriting.net ...

Rationality Is A Common Good
Rationality is present all days in your life, and you don't realize it. When you wake up and choose what are you going to wear, what you are going
to have for breakfast or at what time you have to go out to work, you are using rationality. We choose depending on how coherent is our choice.
"Rationalism in philosophy consists of arriving at substantive conclusions without appealing to any data", stated Ken Binmore. This means that if we
think that something is good, meaning that it is good for everyone, we know that we are acting in a rational manner. If it is a common good, is an
objective point of view. But, if every good choice is objective, why is it that not everyone prefers the same thing? Everyone chooses according to his
or her... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
There is a reason for it to ensue and they have an explanation. Thirdly, inductivereasoning has to be present for coherence to happen. Inductive
reasoning is a type of reasoning where the premises strongly support the conclusion with several parts of evidence.
But, what does coherence mean exactly for Bayes? As said by Bayes, something coherent matches the rules of probability. These rules are informal
versions of standard axioms for elementary probability theory, which have several assumptions to be considered. Secondly, there should be coherent
preferences and they must be transitive. We can explain this as avoiding internal conflicts on the preferences. Why would we have conflicts in our
preferences? Well, there is a type called circular preferences, where you don't have a dominant option and you could always have a next choice.
Imagine that you had circular preferences, and you preferred, for example, an apple to a strawberry, a strawberry to a banana, and banana to an apple.
How would you be able to choose between the three different fruits?
In Binmore's Revealed Preference Book, he talks about the fox in Aesop's fable. This fable is about a fox that isn't able to reach the grapes on top of
the tree and he justifies himself by thinking that the upper grapes are sour. He makes that own assumption and makes his beliefs be dependent on
what is feasible for him. This makes his preference irrational and "fails to

George S T Shirts Case Analysis Essay
Case Background
George Lassiter makes t–shirts for special events such as concerts. The upcoming concert presents another opportunity for George to make and sell
t–shirts; however the question is how many t–shirts to produce. There are two fundamental case questions that must be answered:
1. What are the possible financial outcomes if Lassiter orders 5,000 T–shirts? 7,500? 10,000?
As shown in the Exhibit, a rather simple but detailed decision tree has been made which represents the various options for George. The financial
outcomes for the three different amounts of t–shirts that he can provide are presented in tabular form, in the Appendix. Table 1 shows profit outcomes
for ordering 5000 shirts, Table 2 shows profit outcomes for... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Thus, there is no actual guarantee or scenario where George would earn exactly $26,574; it is simply the weighted average of profits and their
likelihoods, if he had to make this decision a large number of times. Furthermore, the EMV for 'Order 10,000 shirts' was $26,574; this was quite
close to the EMV for 'Order 7500 shirts', which was $24,181. Added to this, the payoffs for George from choosing the different alternatives vary, and
there are possibilities for George making a loss. EMV is not a very accurate measure for George in this scenario and hence, a thorough risk analysis was
conducted.
The risk analysis immediately eliminates the 'Order 15,000 shirts' option (as did the EMV criteria) because there is a 33% chance that George makes
a loss with this option. This is a highly risky option, with a high probability of loss, but at the same time, offers much higher payoffs. Due to George's
conservative nature in the past, we can safely say that he should not consider producing 15,000 t–shirts for the concert.
Having eliminated completely the option for producing 15,000 shirts, the analysis now focuses on the remaining three options that were available to
us at the beginning. With the option of producing 10,000 shirts, the probability of making at least a profit of $6791 is 6%. Similarly, there is also a
6% probability of making a loss of $3458. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a

The Reid Technique Of Interrogation
This particular study is captivating because it narrows down the causes of wrongful convictions of innocent people, whether it's the interrogators
applying inappropriate methods of the Reid Technique, such as misclassification, coercion, psychological manipulation, and contamination. (Orlando)
"The Reid Technique of interrogation consists of essentially three steps. Custody and isolation (i.e., the suspect is detained and isolated, anxiety and
uncertainty are generated in order to weaken resistance). Confrontation (i.e., the suspect 's guilt is assumed and he or she is confronted with alleged
incriminating evidence that may or may not be genuine; denials are rejected, even if they happen to be true, and the consequence of continued denial is
emphasized), and minimization (i.e., the interrogator tries to gain the suspect 's trust and provides face–saving excuses for the crime, including
suggesting that it was an accident or that the victim deserved it) (...) During the interrogation the investigators use tactics of imbedding trust to lure
detainees to comply and achieve a legal outcome which could lead to reducing longer sentencing if the detainee confesses. Also if there are multiple
co–perpetrators investigators look to probe the detainee that someone has cast blame on the individual, so therefore they must engage with the police
and own up to their part in the crime (Douglas & Rita). The Reid Technique not only is it used illegitimately but it placing innocent individuals

Chapter 5 with Solutions
Chapter 5
A firm has three investment alternatives. Payoffs are in thousands of dollars.
a) Using the expected value approach, which decision is preferred?
b) For the lottery having a payoff of $100,000 with probability p and $0 with probability (1 – p), two decision makers expressed the following
indifference probabilities. Find the most preferred decision for each decision maker using the expected utility approach.
c) Why don't decision makers A and B select the same decision alternative?
Difference in attitude toward risk. Decision maker A tends to avoid risk, while decision maker B tends to take a risk for the opportunity (Risk taker) of
a large payoff. (Can be check by plotting the values).
Q#2. Alexander ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
(Note: The smaller times should reflect higher utilities.) Lottery: p= probability of a 45 minute travel time (best time will be 45 min =10 and the worst
time is 90 min=0 ) (1 – p)= probability of a 90 minute travel time
c) Use the lottery of part (b) and assume that the decision maker expresses indifference probabilities of | Route Open| Route Delays| Route A d1| 8.0|
6.0| Route B d2| 10.0 (45)| 0.0 (90)|
U(60)=.80*10+.20*0=8.0 and U(70)=.60*10+.30*0=6.0
What route should this decision maker select? Is the decision maker a risk taker or a risk–avoider?
Q#4.Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the following decision problem (payoff in dollars):
The indifference probabilities are as follows:
a) Plot the utility function for money for

Explain Why Your Game Is Fair Using Probability
Introduction
Project
You have three choices for the project. Each is worth the same number of points. Choose the topic that best meets your interest and learning styles.
Option 1: Design a game.
Summary: Design a game of chance and analyze the probability of each of the rounds to prove that the game is fair. If it is not fair, explain why
someone might play anyway.
Option 2: Analyze a tv game show that uses probability such as "Deal or No Deal"
Summary: Using data collected from the show, analyze the probability that the player will win the greatest possible amount at each round.
Option 3: Compare probability games.
Summary: Research 2 different lottery or probability based games to compare.
Option 1: Design a Game
Option 1: Design a ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
(For the example above, there are 72 possible outcomes.)
List the probability distribution for the outcomes.
Graph the probability distribution and identify which probability distribution meets it.
Explain why your game is fair using probability.
Option 2: Analyze a Game Show
Analyze a TV Game Show
Note: The suggested game for this assignment is "Deal or No Deal" and the assignment is written specifically for that game show. If you'd like to
analyze a different game show, discuss it with your instructor first as some game shows may not apply and some may need different requirements.
Project Summary:
Watch "Deal or No Deal", review the data, and analyze the game.
Requirements:
1.Watch 3 contestants on the show. This might be several episodes of the show so be sure it will be on at a time you can watch or record it.
2.Record the information from the show including the order when each case was selected and the offer from the banker.

3.For each round of the game (ie each time the banker calls), calculate the expected value and the standard deviation.
4.Record if the banker's offer was above the standard deviation and the probability that the highest value on the board will be

Genetic Engineering Essay example
Genetic Engineering
There are many risks involved in genetic engineering. The release of genetically altered organisms in the environment can increase human suffering,
decrease animal welfare, and lead to ecological disasters. The containment of biotechnological material in laboratories and industrial plants contributes
to the risk of accidental release, especially if the handling and storage are inadequate. The purely political dangers include intensified economic
inequality, the possibility of large–scale eugenic programs, and totalitarian control over human lives. How should the acceptability of these risks be
determined? We argue that the assessment should be left to those who can be harmed by the decisions in question. Economic... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
If, on the other hand, there is no God, we can only lose a few earthly pleasures by acting as if there was. Since the happiness and misery we encounter
if God exists are infinite, it is always, no matter how small the probability, in our own best interest to place our trust on His beneficient existence rather
than on the meagre pleasures of godless hedonism.
The ethos of Pascal's wager can be easily applied to genetic engineering. We can either believe or disbelieve that all living beings have an essence, or
nature, which must not, for fear of an unnamed but absolute horror, be tampered with. As our belief in this essence would only cost us a few
technological advances we can live without, we should not risk drawing upon ourselves the ultimate punishment by 'playing God' or by otherwise
acting 'unnaturally'. (3)
Deontological critics of biotechnology typically argue that the new gene–splicing techniques can involve acts which should never be performed,
whatever the consequences. For a proponent of this view, the dangerous element in genetic engineering is not the probability of concrete physical or
psychological harm which can ensue from its use, but the likelihood that it can lead people into performing acts which are categorically forbidden.
These acts are in some theories linked with the essence of humanity, and in others with the concept of absolute rights or

Quantitative Methods for Business
Question 1 (a)
Question 1 (b)
Revised probabilities for Survey study: | Conditional Probability| | Posterior Probability| State of Nature| P(Favourable result|State of Nature)| Prior
Probability| Joint Probability| P(State of Nature|Favourable result)| Successful Market| 0.70| Г— 0.50| = 0.35| 0.350.45=0.78| Unsuccessful Market|
0.20| Г— 0.50| = 0.10| 0.100.45=0.22| P(Favourable result) =| 0.45| 1.00|
| Conditional Probability| | Posterior Probability| State of Nature| P(Unfavourable result |State of Nature)| Prior Probability| Joint Probability| P(State of
Nature|Unfavourable result)| Successful Market| 0.30| Г— 0.50| = 0.15| ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
If more beds are acquired, Mt. Sinai Hospital will have immediate additional cost of purchasing more beds as well as additional cost in the x–ray
department as serving more patients will results in handling more x–rays. This optimal solution will use up its maximum unutilized capacity of 7,000
more x–rays.
(c) Laboratory tests: 3.1m + 2.6s в‰¤ 15000
Optimal solution: m= 2790.909, s= 2104.545
Laboratory tests: 3.1(2790.909) + 2.6(2104.545) = 14123.63в‰€ 14124
The laboratory is not utilized to its maximum capacity. The laboratory is capable of handling another 15,000 tests per year. In this optimal solution,
there will be another 14,124 lab tests only.
Hence, it is able to perform 876 more lab tests (15,000–14,124) per year.
If Mt. Sinai Hospital acquires more lab space, there will be no additional cost until it reached its maximum capacity of 15,000 additional lab tests.
However, there will be additional cost if it exceeds its maximum capacity.
(d) X–ray: 1m + 2s в‰¤ 7000
Optimal solution: m= 2790.909, s= 2104.545
X–ray: 1(2790.909) + 2(2104.545) = 7000

The x–ray facility is being used to its maximum of 7,000 x–rays in this optimal solution. The x–ray department could not perform more than additional
7,000 x–rays per year without significant additional cost. If Mt. Sinai Hospital acquires more x–ray facilities, a significant additional cost would be
incurred which is not favourable.
(e) Operating room:

Essay about Probabilist
'Probabilist' Deductive Inference in Gassendi's Logic*
ABSTRACT: In his Logic, Pierre Gassendi proposes that our inductive inferences lack the information we would need to be certain of the claims that
they suggest. Not even deductivist inference can insure certainty about empirical claims because the experientially attained premises with which we
adduce support for such claims are no greater than probable. While something is surely amiss in calling deductivist inference "probabilistic," it seems
Gassendi has hit upon a now–familiar, sensible point–namely, the use of deductive reasoning in empirical contexts, while providing certain formal
guarantees, does not insulate empirical arguments from judgment by the measure of belief which ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
All these views bear the mark of his distinctively strong empiricism. He proposes (quite reasonably) that our inductive inferences lack the information
we would need to be certain of claims they suggest, and (a bit more surprisingly) that not even deductivist inference can insure our certainty about
empirical claims because the experientially attained premises we adduce in support of such claims are no greater than probable.
We might think, on the basis of this last notion, that Gassendi has a good enough seventeenth century grasp of inductivist logic, and that it's rather
deductivist logic he doesn't fully understand. Yet, while something is surely amiss in calling deductivist inference 'probabilistic', it seems Gassendi has
hit upon a now–familiar, sensible point–that the use of deductive reasoning in empirical contexts, while providing certain formal guarantees, does not
insulate empirical arguments from judgement by the measure of belief we invest in their premises. Such a view is possible for Gassendi to begin with
because he is among those early Moderns who allow that we may have warrant for claims though we are not certain of them; this is the 'degrees of
belief' concept which figures prominently in the development of modern probability theory. The more general point, which distinguishes Gassendi
among his contemporaries, is that the strength all empirical claims share, irrespective of the way we infer them, consists in the

Enc 5050
CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance I received in its preparation is full
acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased.
I have added quotes whenever I used more than three consecutive words from another writer. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me
specifically for this course.
Student's Signature: Khanya Clark–Robinson
Khanya Clark–Robinson
Final Paper
Kahneman1, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. (1979). "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk."
1. Big Question
The big question of this article is how people make decisions under uncertainty ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Simon, Herbert A. (1978) "Rational DecisionвЂђMaking in Business Organizations."
1. Big Questions
The answer to this question is how people really make decisions and why human decision making have so many short comings. The author defines the
entire field of economics as a decision of science. Political economics involves national and international resource allocation and distribution of wealth.
He extends general economics into the fields of political science, sociology and psychology.
The authors generalizes the theory so that it can apply to economics and the above mentioned fields. 2. Background Information
The evolution of decision theory begins with the theory of rational decision making and this theory became the foundation of economics. Its main
assumption is that people making decisions have all the required information to determined the best outcomes. This theory has generated predictions
that are good enough for some situations regardless of consistently failing at predicting other situations. The theory was added by other theories.
Bounded rationality is defined as a major revision to the theory of rational decision making. It incorporated assumptions that accounted for imperfect
information, decisions under uncertainty and perceived probability. It offered two new ways to attack decision problems using science and mathematics.
3. Limitations of previous work.
The

The Un Sanctions Committee 's Guidelines Prescribe Too...
Some would say that the UN Sanctions Committee's guidelines prescribe very loose standards of evidence for their Monitoring Groups. This is often
followed with the claim that inconsistent standards of investigations and evidentiary standards can lead to poor harmonization and unfair sanctioning,
which can even go so far as discrediting of the Sanctions Committees of the Security Council. While these claims may be true to some extent, the
argument can be made that by comparing reports, Experts have already formed a degree of consensus in their evidentiary standards and due processes
of investigations. The purpose of exemplifying the high burden of proof across the Panels of Experts without a common guidelines is to demonstrate
that due... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Looking at this policy, it is clear that it would be impossible under the current framework to provide this type of due process for all individuals and
entities sanctioned by the UN. Furthermore, the Security Council would most likely not provide the resources necessary to pursue this process.
Therefore, to the standard of due process used for charging misconduct on a UN employee would not be satisfied with the due process used for
investigations and impositions of UN sanctions. While this example may not be a realistic comparison, the value in its mention is intended to shed
light on the double standards inherent in the due process of imposing UN sanctions (having detrimental effects), and the due process for imposing a
charge of misconduct on a UN staff member (having much less of an effect than targeted sanctions). This double standard perhaps signifies a need for
reform.
After viewing the evidentiary standards and investigative methods of the different Experts Panels of the Security Council Monitoring Teams/Groups–
as will be done in the remainder of this essay– it will be demonstrated that almost all Panels of Expert more or less conform to the recommendations
made in The Report of the Informal Working Group of the Security Council on General Issues of Sanctions (2006) already, without a mandate or
common standard outlined by the Security Council. This calls

3.Generation Reliability Analysis. Generation System...
3.Generation Reliability analysis
Generation system reliability deals with the relative ability of the system to supply system load considering that generation units may be out of service
when needed due to planned or unplanned outages or that the basic energy sources may be inadequate.
Generation system reliability, also known as generation system adequacy, is to be contrasted with security which deals with the relative ability of the
system to survive sudden shocks or upset such as faults or equipment failures without cascading failures or loss of stability.
Mathematically, reliability is the probability that a device would perform its required function for a specified period of time under the stated operational
conditions. The ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The generation capacity is the sum of the power that can be produces by all generator units that are available to produce electrical energy. These units
do not have to be operational but they should have the potential to be operational.[9]
Generator units may be unavailable due to failures, this is called forced unavailability",or due to preventive maintenance, this is called planned
unavailability". Both types of unavailability may be treated stochastically, but the planned unavailability is often treated deterministically.
The uncertainty in the generation capacity is then only due to failures (outages) of generator units [9]. Generating units will occasionally fail to operate
and the system operator has to make sure that enough reserve is available to be operated when this situation happens, as will be discussed in the
following subsection.
352.3Generation Reserves
Improvements in system reliability can be achieved by using better components or incorporating redundancy. Generation redundancy is attained by
providing generating capacity above that needed for maximum load demand and transfers. This spare capacity represents the reserve of generation
necessary to keep the risk of power shortages below an acceptable level.
The determination of the required amount of generation

How Did Billy Beane Use Statistics In Moneyball
When people hear anything about "probability and statistics", most people tend to zone out. They will defend themselves by stating that they will
never use statistics in their life. For some people this could be the case, but for most people their future may be changed by the use of statistics. A
good example of how the use of statistics has changed a group of people's life is the movie Moneyball. Moneyball incorporates the use of probability
and statistics with just a simple game of baseball. It follows the Oakland Athletics general manager,Billy Beane, as he uses the power of statistics in
order to create and manage his baseball team. Beane faces a problem when he is unable to re–sign three of his best players due to a limited payroll. He
... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
To ensure that the Pythagorean Expectation is that large,Peter does one over one plus runs allowed divided by runs scored.To allow the team to win
99 games,the team needs to score at least 814 runs,and can allow no more than 645 runs. This gives a runs allowed to runs scored ratio of 645
/814.He also uses an algorithm to analyze players and get everything down to one number to find value in players no one else

Gambling In The Gambler
Gambling and the unpredictability of the roulette wheel stand at the center of Fyodor Dostoevsky's The Gambler. Despite the fact that it is not a very
rational activity, gambling captures the enthusiasms of many in The Gambler, enthralling those characters that are intoxicated by the feelings of
victory. Experienced gamblers often work out strategies to ensure success, or at least a greater chance of success. Unfortunately, these types of
patterns and strategies simply do not apply in games of chance like roulette. As Jeff Love describes, there is not a "fixed constant or indubitable
ground permitting a deductive determination of the results of each turn of the wheel" in the game of roulette (Love 373). Put more simply, roulette is a
game of... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Alexei argues that in roulette, there is "not a strict order, [but] at least a certain pattern" (40). As this passage shows, Alexei craves control, but
simply cannot have it in a game like roulette. The simple reality is that the outcomes of roulette are completely random. There is no pattern or
order, but simply an erratic variety of different numbers. Alexei's desire to "challenge Fate" is highly indicative of how badly he wants to control
the truly uncontrollable (40). Just like in his relationships, Alexei cannot steer the path of the game of roulette in the direction of his choice. Alexei's
inability to control the game of roulette is what ultimately drives him to become addicted and admit that he is "a gambler" (102). Alexei's desire to
discover some sort of pattern or strategy is indicative of his desperation to prove his abilities as a gambler. Alexei cannot fathom that there is no
pattern or order that will help him understand the game better. He simply has to leave the game up to chance, which propels him to a fairly destructive
obsession with the game. Unfortunately for Alexei, the outcome of roulette is out of his direct control, which further proves that like the roulette
wheel, most parts of Alexei's life are completely

A Dirty Little Secret Of Leadership Development Essay
A dirty little secret of leadership development is there are few truly new and innovative ideas. Recently published books, tools, and concepts
repackage ideas from decades or centuries ago to address the needs of twenty–first century leaders and organizations. For example, Amazon lists
Extreme Ownership: How U.S. Navy SEALs Lead and Win by Jocko Willink and Leif Babin as the current best seller in business management and
leadership. Willink and Babin's ideas are solid and their stories are both inspiring and compelling. Nonetheless their concepts are not new.
Academicians, practitioners, and leaders have highlighted these same principles for decades: check the ego, prioritize and execute, and decisiveness
amid uncertainty, to name a select few. This is not a criticism, rather a reality of the leadership industry. Accordingly my contributions to the field are
not uniquely inventive. Rather I excel at packaging existing ideas in creative, simple, and applicable ways that address my clients' needs and inspire
impactful leadership. I recently shared a set of risk taking tools with a client that demonstrates this skill.
The executive marketing team for a specific product group in a global foods company asked me to facilitate a strategic offsite, emphasizing leadership
agility. The big players in the food industry are struggling to respond to consumer demands for products that are non–GMO, organic, gluten–free, low
to no sugar, locally sourced, and that reflect sustainable and

Probability and Distributions
Probability and Distributions
Abstract
This paper will discuss the trends and data values and how they relate to statistical terms. Also will describe the probability of different actions to the
same group of data. The data will be broke down accordingly to qualitative and quantitative data, and will be grouped and manipulated to show how
the data in each group can prove to be useful in the workplace.
Memo To: Head of American Intellectual Union From: Abby Price Date: 3/05/2014 Subject: Data analysis from within the union's surveys Dear Dr.
Common:
I will be analyzing data given to me which was taken from a survey within the union from 186 employees. I will discuss probability and how its
information is important ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In the case of the survey it is even at 50% male and 50% female, out of 186 employees there are 93 of each gender. With data it can be much easier to
look at just a portion of that data on a table rather than trying to look at the whole data set. When presenting the data, using a distribution table you can
include charts and graphs to better understand the data being presented.
Distribution of Individuals by GenderGender| Percentage| Females| 50%| Males| 50%|
Tenure with Company Distribution by Gender | Under 2 years| 2–5 Years| Over 5 years| Male| 34| 35| 24| Female| 49| 16| 28|
Percentage of the Survey Participants in Each Department Department| Percentage| Information Technology| 34%| Human Resources| 30%|
Administration| 37%|
Sample Mean for Extrinsic Value by Gender Gender| Mean Extrinsic Value| Male| 5.16| Female| 5.07|
Probabilities The first probability I will be figuring is the probability of a person being 16–21 years of age. The Second figure will show the probability
of an individual's overall satisfaction score of a 5.2 or lower. The third calculation I will be doing is finding the probability of a female working in the
human resource department. Lastly I will show the probability of a salaried employee having an intrinsic score of 5 or more.

Managerial Economics Case Study
152
Ghapter 5
Exercises
Some people are in favor of reducing federal taxes to increase consumer spending and others are against it. Two persons are selected and their opinions
are recorded. Assuming no one is undecided, list the possible outcomes.
2. A quality control inspector selects a part to be tested. The part is then declared acceptable, repairable, or scrapped. Then another part is tested. List
the possible outcomes of this experiment regarding two parts. tGE 3. A.r."y of 54 students at the Wall College of Business showed the following majors:
1.
Accounting
10
Finance
Economics
Management
Marketing
5
3
6
10

Suppose you select a student and observe his or her maior.
a. What is the probability he or she is a management major? ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
What rule of probability was applied?
14. The chair of the board of directors says, "There is a 50 percent chance this company will earn a profit, a 30 percent chance it will break even, and a
20 percent chance it will lose money next quarter."
a. Use an addition rule to find the probability the company will not lose money next
a. What
quarter.
Use the complement rule to find the probability it will not @e money next quafter.
't5. Suppose the probability you will get an A in this class is .25 and the–probability you will
b.
get a B is .50. What is the probability your grade will be above a C? coins are tossed. lf A is the event "two heads" and B is the event "two tails," are
16. Two
A and B mutually exclusive? Are they complements?
17. The probabilities of the events A and B are .20 and.30, respectively. The probability that
both A and B occur is .15. What is the probability of either A ot B occurring?
Pffi : .55 and P(y) : .35. Assume the probability that they both occur is .20. What is the probability of either X or Y occurring?
19. Suppose the two events A and B are mutually exclusive. What is the probability of their joint occurrence?
20. A student is taking two courses, history and math. The probability the student will pass the history course is .60, and the probability of passing the
math course is .70. The probability of passing both is .50. What is the probability of passing at least one?
21. A survey of grocery stores in the Southeast

Nature & Treatment of Risk
Nature & Treatment of Risk:
It is impossible to win the great prizes of life without running risks. So it's needless to say the influence of 'risk' in our daily life as well as the
business world itself. Well here are different risks and their nature briefly discussed with requisite statements.
Risk:
An acclaimed quote of Ralph Waldo Emerson about 'risk' says, ''I dip my pen in the blackest ink, because I am not afraid of falling into my inkpot.''
Without being any more rhetoric here's what Oxford English dictionary states about risk– "Risk is (Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other
adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility."
Risk may vary in different field of study! But ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Govt. also provides special condition to the given insurance like return in case of any fundamental loss like flood occurs.
Pure risk: types * Personal risk is the risk directly originated from an individual. * Property Risk is the risk affecting the owner of the property *
Liability risk involves the threat of the company or individual having to bear the consequences of damage or of breaching standards due to operations,
a product, an act or neglect Burden of risk on society:
To get rid of the burden of risk on society the size of an emergency fund must be increased. And also society is deprived of certain goods and services.
Methods of Handling Risk: Avoidance of probable event can cause probable loss. For example, the refusal to fly in the fear of crash can be considered
as Avoidance. Well sometimes it may not be very practical! Risk Retention can either be active or passive. An individual may retain all or part of a
given risk.
Noninsurance Transfers: Followed by these methods, risk can be handled * Transfer of risk by contracts * Hedging price risks * Incorporation of a
business firm Loss control: Loss control consists of 2 major parts. * Loss prevention * Loss reduction Insurance: Insurance is the most practical way
of risk handling. Here risk is transferred to another party (mainly insurer). The objective is to reduce the pure risk of

Busn311 Unit 2 Ip
Unit 2 – Probability and Distributions Leah Lopez American InterContinental University Abstract Within this email, I will cover different probabilities
within your company. This information can help you to understand whether or not your employees are satisfied with their jobs or not. Also within the
results of this survey, you will find that your employees are not distributed equally in terms of gender. Memo To: AIU From: Leah Lopez Date:
November 13, 2012 Subject: Survey of employees at American Intellectual Union Dear AIU: Within this email, I will be providing some information
from a survey that was given to your employees. This information can help you to understand how satisfied your workers are with their... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
A knowledge of bias will help you to understand which results are worth using for your business (Ayres, 2009). Distributions A distribution table can
keep all of this information (numbers, row data) handy. A person can look, and say, oh, the participants in this survey were 75% male, or 25 %
female. The managers can "see" the information and not just the raw data. Then complete the following distribution tables. Please pay attention to
whether you should present the results in terms of percentages or simple counts. Distribution of Individuals by Gender |Gender |Percentage | |Females
|50% | |Males |50% | Tenure with Company Distribution by Gender Please note that you do NOT have to convert these into percentages. You may
leave them in a count format. | |Under 2 years |2–5 Years |Over 5 years | |Male | |8 |11 | | |13 | | | |Female | |10 |3 |

Mathematics : The Joy Of Mathematics In The World
Mathematics is defined as "the abstract science of number, quantity, and space", and to many individuals, this definition is very black and white
(Definition of mathematics in English by Oxford Dictionaries). Copious people do not like mathematics, as they do not have an appreciation for it.
Before I took this class, I had a much narrower understanding and weaker background on mathematics due to how I was taught these topics
throughout my time in primary schooling. After taking The Joy of Mathematics, this course has significantly affected my appreciation of mathematics
in general application and in terms of its history and importance in our world. To begin, mathematics serves as a very universal language. Its origins
are very diverse and many nations and peoples have contributed to the beauty of math, making it even more exquisite. Mathematical writings date
back as far as 2000 B.C., with discoveries in different areas of the world. The earliest mathematical writings available are Plimpton 322, from Babylon
in 1900 BC, the Rhind Mathematical Papyrus, from Egypt in 2000–1800 BC, and the Moscow Mathematical Papyrus, also from Egypt in 1890 BC
(History of Mathematics). Since then, many diverse areas in the world have contributed to mathematics, including the Greeks, Egyptians, Babylonians,
Chinese, Indians, the Islamic Empire, and Europeans (History of Mathematics). Today, mathematics is still evolving and individuals are constantly
researching and striving to discover more

Essay about Case 1 Internal Audit
A. The key processes used by Pizza Inc. at their individual site locations: * On the job training is the primary method for employees to learn policies
and procedures. * An order will come into Pizza Inc. it will be written down on pre–numbered pads. The date, time of call, name, address, phone
number, type of crust, and toppings requested are all taken down. If mistakes are made the pre–numbered order form will be thrown out and a new
sheet will be used. * After the order is taken the employee will then calculate the pricing using hand calculators and give the customer a price and then
record it on the order form. * Shift manager then check every order to make sure that the information is complete prior to ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
* Oven temperatures may overcook and burn the pizzas. * Medium, Possible wasted ingredients and time of employees. * Pizza is intentionally
cooked wrong so employees can "snack" on the incorrect order. * Medium, Probable, wasted time and ingredients. * Central located clock that is
used as the only timer may stop working. * High, Unlikely, the whole store relies on the timer for cooking. The shop would have to stop operations
if the clock stopped working until fixed. * Wrong label is put on the pizza and it is delivered to the wrong customer. * Medium, possible, customer
satisfaction will be impaired. * The driver may get lost on the way to the customer. * Low, Remote, time of delivery will be significantly longer and
food may be cold. * The driver's car can break down in route to the customer. * Medium, Unlikely, orders will be late to the customer and potentially
cold.
K – Key LinkS – Secondary Link| Risk 1| Risk 2| Risk 3| Risk 4| Risk 5| Risk 6| Risk 7| Risk 8| Risk 9| Risk 10| Process 1| K| K| K| K| | | | | | | Process
2| K| K| | | | | | | | | Process 3| | | K| | | | | | | | Process 4| | K| K| | | | | | | | Process 5| | | | K| | | | | | | Process 6| | | | | K| | | | | | Process 7| |

Functionalist Theory On Gambling
If the functionalist theory explains why the percentage of women aged 45–64 who are problem gamblers has increased since 1998, then that would
mean women aged 45–64 are discontent with society or feel unable to reach the goals and means set up by society. Gambling, in this case being their
"harmless" expression to their current circumstance. A theory would be that women aged 45–64 are a lot more stressed out by society or circumstances
than they were during 1998, which leads to the deviance, in this case gambling, which works as the response to not being able to cope with the stress
and expectations put up by society.
One possible reason as to why women are more stressed and have higher expectations today is that more women are working today than in 1998. As
women start focusing on their careers they are still expected to do household work, as a stay at home wife would. Figure 1 which ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
Among the men, majority of the problem gamblers claimed they had poor psychological health, while majority of the female problem gamblers claimed
they had good psychological health. One argument could be that the problem gamblers use gambling to deal with their stress, so they feel like they
have a good psychological health. However, if applying the functionalist theory this argument would be weak since the functionalist theory says that the
act of deviance is a sign that the person is discontent with something, or unable to reach the goals set up to society. If the functionalist theory was
correct, that women are under more stress leading them to gamble more, then they would state that there psychological health is poor, because they
would be discontent with something. It is also important to remember that this is what the problem gamblers claim themselves, and some of them may
not want to admit how they really are doing

It is impossible to win the great prizes of life without running risks. So it's needless to say the influence of 'risk' in our daily life as well as the
business world itself. Well here are different risks and their nature briefly discussed with requisite statements.
Risk:
An acclaimed quote of Ralph Waldo Emerson about 'risk' says, ''I dip my pen in the blackest ink, because I am not afraid of falling into my inkpot.''
Without being any more rhetoric here's what Oxford English dictionary states about risk– "Risk is (Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other
adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility."
Risk may vary in different field of study! But ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Govt. also provides special condition to the given insurance like return in case of any fundamental loss like flood occurs.
Pure risk: types * Personal risk is the risk directly originated from an individual. * Property Risk is the risk affecting the owner of the property *
Liability risk involves the threat of the company or individual having to bear the consequences of damage or of breaching standards due to operations,
a product, an act or neglect Burden of risk on society:
To get rid of the burden of risk on society the size of an emergency fund must be increased. And also society is deprived of certain goods and services.
Methods of Handling Risk: Avoidance of probable event can cause probable loss. For example, the refusal to fly in the fear of crash can be considered
as Avoidance. Well sometimes it may not be very practical! Risk Retention can either be active or passive. An individual may retain all or part of a
given risk.
Noninsurance Transfers: Followed by these methods, risk can be handled * Transfer of risk by contracts * Hedging price risks * Incorporation of a
business firm Loss control: Loss control consists of 2 major parts. * Loss prevention * Loss reduction Insurance: Insurance is the most practical way
of risk handling. Here risk is transferred to another party (mainly insurer). The objective is to reduce the pure risk of

A Research On The And Collecting Literature Essay
The first part in the process of doing research is the question. You can 't do any research until you have an interesting and feasible question. You will
base your research off this question and go through the whole process with it in mind. However, there are previous components to have ready before a
question can be created for the research. These components would be: finding a topic to research, creating a theory about the topic, and collecting
literature on the topic for analysis. The question needs a passion or a curiosity about the topic. This could be a passion to further the knowledge of
a specific topic or a curiosity for a question that has been asked but not answered. Research takes time and effort making it hard to pick an adequate
topic for research. By picking a topic you are passionate about will allow you to expand on the energy you will have while researching it.
Creating a theory for a topic you have interest in, takes researching itself. It is necessary to collect literature about the chosen topic and to examine it.
Compiling literature gives you more of an awareness on your topic as well as possible examples to further expand your knowledge on it. Youwant to
add to the research that is already available on your topic as well as configure questions that are beneficial to your research. This process of finding
literature may change your topic and theory a bit before you come up with a final question. Once a practical and alluring topic is picked, literature

Essay about Rsm100 Required Readings Summaries
RSM100 Required Readings Summaries Nov. 23 – The Discipline of Teams * Teams and good performance are inseparable * Teamwork represent a
set of values that encourage listening and responding constructively to views expressed by others * Group work is NOT same as team *
Working–group focuses on individual goals * strong, clearly focused leader * group's purpose = organizational mission * individual work product *
efficient meetings * measured by influence on others (ex. financial performance) * discusses, decides, delegates * Teams require both individual and
mutual accountability * Shared leadership roles * Specific team purpose that differs from mission... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Planning and budgeting| 1. Setting a direction| 2. Organizing and staffing| 2. Aligning people| 3. Controlling and problem solving| 3. Motivating and
inspiring| 1) Setting a direction vs. planning and budgeting a. Setting a direction is more inductive (through patterns, data) i. Important for short
/long–term goal setting b. Planning works best as a complement for direction setting 2) Aligning vs. Staffing c. Aligning: getting people to understand a
vision, which leads to empowerment ii. Clear target, same direction d. Management is more about "organizing" people; structure, training, incentives 3)
Motivating vs. Controlling e. Motivation: energizes people satisfies basic human needs iii. Sense of achievement, recognition, involvement iv.
Coaching, feedback v. Reward Informal Relations are important help coordinate leadership activities. Well–led businesses tend to recognize and reward
people who successfully develop leaders. Nov. 9 – Integrative Thinking: Choices, conflict and the creative spark Feature story: Michael Lee–chin's
crisis of whether or not to sell AIC's stocks (as he supported them for many years) when they were falling dramatically. He then decided to purchase
many of one stock, Mackenzie Financial Group, one of AIC's major

Subjective Expected Utility Theory Developed By Savage Essay
Subjective expected utility theory developed by Savage, (1954) deemed a common reference in characterizing the impact of subjective risk on
individuals' behavior (Seifert, et al., 2013). The underlying assumption of this theory is that agents' actions to mitigate risks are induced by their
subjective probability of the negative and uncertain outcomes. Subjective risk, on the other hand, is defined as the intuitive judgement individuals make
about the characteristics and consequences of a specific type of hazard in the presence of uncertainty (Slovic, 1987; Slovic, 2000). Accordingly,
subjective risk is a variable that can be quantified and analyzed based on probability and consequences, where, probability "is an expression for the
state of knowledge that depends on both information and the knowledge of the individual who assigns it (Raaijmakers and van der Veen, 2008, P. 308).
Within the literature dealing with risk perceptions of environmental hazards, there is a fair level of consensus about the existence of a significant
discrepancy between perceived or subjective risk and the objective reality or experts' assessments (e.g. Visccusi, 1989; Kraus and Slovic, 1992; Breyer,
1993; Dickie and Gerking, 1996; May and Burger, 1996; Pollak,1998; SjУ§berg, 1999; Johansson–Stenman, 2008). The divergence of public's
perceptions of risk from that of experts is argued to be exacerbated in cases of low–probability events, and is attributable to several factors such as
difficulties in

Risk Based Security Strategic Assessment
Risk Assessment Introduction For this case analysis, the OCTAVE method for risk
–based security strategic assessment will be used. The OCTAVE
–S
Method which fits particularly for the company that Ann organized and is tailored to suit the needs of small enterprises. This is designed for
about 100 people or less. The Becoming Company is a full service provider for a line of developmental training and inspirational materials
including videos, music, and books called Drive Change. The company was created by Ann Roger's, who out of having her own anxiety disorder
have managed to come up with a good business that can cater and help other people with the same disorders she has. The core objective of the
business is to share her individualized means of therapy through selling the collected videos, and any other information's necessary for the therapy.
Assessment of Assets (Step 1) The Becoming Company utilized several assets to run the business. The purchase of a back computer which has a
brand of Dell OptiPlex 390 for purposes of storing files, accounting records, and all necessary sales directly from the POS system. The computer uses
a custom made program to run the business according to her needs and to make the accounting system easier and organized. She also purchased POS
from InitiaTek which has its own program to run. It contains a set of self–contained drawer and sales register and tabulation and transaction software
written in a particular program called C#NET.

Free Will And The Door For Free Action
This paper contends that Sider is wrong. With a revised interpretation of free will and internalization of weight bestowal, indeterminacy might open the
door for free action. We will discuss what this paper means by free action and indeterminacy, explore why Sider thinks indeterminacy is incompatible
with free action, object Sider's arguments using Nozick's proposal of self–subsuming weight bestowal, and investigate possible counter arguments to
Nozick's proposition.
The libertarian view requires a free action to be non–random, uncaused and 'could have been done otherwise'. However, indeterminacy suggests that a
prior event provides a clue of a range of probable future events. Thus the indeterministic version of event is not uncaused. To explore the possibility of
indeterminacy to be compatible with free action, we have to tolerate this shortcoming. Therefore in this essay, we will regard a person who acts freely
as someone who could have non–randomly chosen other than the chosen non–random event. Whether the event is caused or uncaused is driven out of
the equation.
Sider argues that an indeterministic world governed by the law of probability inherently entails decision to be made by chance. Suppose Amir has
75%, 20%, and 5% probabilities of choosing a sandwich, a burger, and an orange for his lunch respectively. Imagine one hundred parallel worlds
exist. In 75 worlds, Amir would choose a sandwich; in 25 worlds, Amir would choose a burger; in 5 worlds, Amir would choose

How Much Is Milk Worth My Going At The Store?
Introduction Myriad decisions affront us every day. Each decision is decomposable into sub–decisions. For instance, consider the mental turmoil or
apathy required to determine whether you shall go grocery shopping. First, you determine an initial need for grocery shopping (i.e., you are out of
milk, eggs, etc.). Next, you consider what you would rather (an evaluation of utility) do. This cost–benefit analysis continues until going seems to bring
greater utility or until staying does. Though these calculations require a second or so in your mind, in decomposing this choice, one finds a series of
individual decisions contributing to the final. These subdecisions may "How much is milk worth my going to the store?" or "How much does this
television show dissuade me from going to the store?" However, one can go deeper still. In answering each of the above subquestions, you
subconsciously evaluate the options on a scale of utility. Consider this concept, though: for any arbitrarily selected value on that scale, you must
subconsciously "decide" if the value is satisfactory––a boolean decision (see Fig. 1). Additionally, all but the lowest layer of subdecisions are
considerable as independent decisions in different contexts. Accordingly, these decisions are likewise decomposable to final boolean decisions,
assuming all high level "decisions" are decomposable. Also note these boolean decisions are never consciously considered in first order as that
requires additional levels of

The Drunkard's Walk Chapter 1 Summary
The chapter 6 from the book "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard is "False Positives and Positive Failures". At
first, it discusses Thomas Bayes theory of conditional probability, and there are some conspiracy theories confuse the direction of conditional. Then
it tells that Richard price created actuary science, however, the wise way is updating posterior probabilities after evidence and prior probabilities,
and it is important to ask the rate of false positives for diagnostic tests. People must know how false positive rate compares to the true prevalence of
disease, and when assessing test results need to know if u, r in a high–risk group. From the event, it is obvious that the fallacy ignores false positive rate.

Qnt 561 Complete Class Essay
QNT 561 Complete Class
Purchase here
http://homeworkonestop.com/qnt–561–complete–class
Product Description
QNT 561 (Applied Business Research and Statistics )
Week 1
Individual Week One Practice Problems
Complete the following Week One Practice Problems in MyStatLabВ®:
Ch. 2 of Statistics for Business and Economics o 2.37, 2.38, 2.44, 2.46, 2.54, 2.64, 2.68, 2.79, 2.85, 2.89, 2.93, 2.94, 2.106, and 2.108
Ch. 4 of Statistics for Business and Economics o 4.1, 4.12, 4.13, 4.21, 4.79, 4.80, 4.81, 4.89, 4.91, 4.106, and 4.124
Week 2
Individual Week Two Practice Problems
Complete the following Week Two Practice Problems in MyStatLabВ®:
Ch. 4 of Statistics for Business and Economics o 4.156, 4.164, 4.169, and ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Address the following in your paper:
Include how you applied concepts to formulate your decision.
Include appropriate probability concepts and your application to find resulting data to limit uncertainty in this decision.
Identify each outcome from your statistical analysis, providing rationale for each.
Identify tradeoffs between accuracy and precision required by various probability concepts and the effect on your data.
Include the decision you made based on statistical data.
Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines.
Learning Team Weekly Reflection

Discuss this week's objectives with your team. Your discussion should include the topics you feel comfortable with, any topics you struggled with, and
how the weekly topics relate to application in your field.
Prepare a 350– to 1,050–word paper detailing the findings of your discussion.
Week 4
Individual Week Four Practice Problems
Complete the following Week Four Practice Problems in MyStatLabВ®:
Ch. 1 of Statistics for Business and Economics o 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.14, 1.16, 1.19, 1.21, and 1.31
Learning Team Business Research Methods, Part II
Resources: Ch. 10, 12, 13, and 14 of Business Research Methods
Collect data using your sample design and appropriate collection methods to maintain data validity.
Prepare a 700– to 1400–word milestone.
Create a questionnaire or survey appropriate for your sample.
Present your data

Examples Of Blockbuster
Theory 3
"There are some routes and paths that must not be taken. There are some armies and troops that must not be assaulted." Although some of the
routes and paths may looks advantageous to us, it should not be taken lightly. This is because there might be some ambushes that cannot be found
or detected easily. If the decision is not made cautiously, troubles or loss may be incurred instead of gaining the desired advantages. In other words,
do not judge a book by its cover. Besides that, something that seems like a benefit may be also a trap set by the enemy or competitor. If someone
walks into the trap looking for benefit, then his or her benefit could be taken away instead. This theory was applied by Blockbuster, which was once a
very popular video rental company. The Chief Executive Officer of Blockbuster, Jim Keyes, was interested in enhancing their retail business by
purchasing Circuit City, an electronic retailer company (Eaton, 2008). Therefore, he made an offer to ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
If everything works out perfectly, it would be nice to see the product of the combination of Blockbuster and Circuit City. However, in reality, things
just would not work that way, especially in this modern era where everything in the market changes rapidly, and nobody can predict what is going to
happen next. Even in this situation, Blockbuster still did a good job by analysing the market carefully and making their decision wisely. At the time
when the offer is announced to the public, many opinions from analysts flooded in, with majority agreeing that the offer is bad (Jacobs and Paul,
2008). They are lucky enough to found the problems before it is too late. Although Keyes had a wonderful envision of the future of the affiliation, he
decided to give up on the offer and take the safe route in order to prevent their company from falling into a black

Rainfall Induced Landslide Of Kenya
Rainfall induced landslide probability mapping for central province
1Edward H. Waithaka,
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Department of Geomatic Engineering & Geospatial Information Systems. P.o. Box
62000–00200, Nairobi, Kenya Email: hunja@eng.jkuat.ac.ke
2 Thomas G. Ngigi Email: tomngigi@hotmail.com
3Mercy W. Mwaniki, Email: mercimwaniki@yahoo.com
Abstract
Rainfall induced landslide hazards in Kenya represents a major challenge and remain an important issue in disaster management especially in Kenya's
central province region where the effects are very common with the onset of El nin Мѓo rains. The main aim of this study is to develop a rainfall
induced landslide probability map for Kenya's central province. In order to achieve this, process based methods were used to map landslide areas using
the following factors: slope, rainfall, land cover change,Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI)change, Curvature, watershed, and soil
characteristic including: type, texture, soil bulk density, Base Saturation, and Total Water Available Distribution Map. The minimum conditions were
set for each factor for landslide occurrence. Slope stability mapping was done to determine the stable areas and thus derive the probability of landslide
occurrence. Statistical methods were then employed by means of weights of evidence to achieve the probability weights for each factor considered to
cause landslides. The factors were then overlaid using the probability

Decision Tree Model
Instructor's Manual
Chapter 1
1
Chapter 1
I
1.1
Chapter Outline
A Decision Tree Model and Its Analysis The following concepts are introduced through the use of a simple decision tree example (the Bill Sampras '
summer job decision): Decision tree Decision node Event node Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set of events Branches and final values
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Optimal decision strategy Introduction of the folding back or backward induction procedure for solving a decision
tree. Discussion on sensitivity analysis in a decision tree. Summary of the General Method of Decision Analysis. Another Decision Tree Model and Its
Analysis Detailed formulation, discussion, and solution of the ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
If the forecast indicates a rainy day, she should cancel the show. If the forecast indicates a sunny day, she should continue with the show. The EMV of
this strategy is $6,200.
Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright 2000,
South–Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.
Instructor's Manual
Chapter 1
4

1.2
(a) See decision tree above. (b) Once Monday 's bid is made, Newtone 's optimal strategy is to accept the bid if it is a $3,000,000 bid and reject it if the
bid is for $2,000,000. If Monday 's bid is rejected, then accept Tuesday 's bid, regardless of the amount offered. The EMV of this strategy is $2,600,000.
Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright 2000,
South–Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.
Instructor's Manual
Chapter 1
5
1.3
(a) As shown in the table below, as p decreases James ' optimal decision changes as to take Meditech 's offer. A break
–even analysis where we solve the
equation 440p – 200(1–p) = 150 reveals that the break–even probability is p=0.55. In other words, if the probability of successful 3D software is below
0.55, then it is better for James to accept Meditech 's offer, otherwise continue with the project.
Probability of Successful 3D Development p

The Benefits Of Cheating Professional Hearthstone
Hearthstone, by it's very nature, is a game of random chance. From the mulligan phase, to the topdecking, to the effects of the cards themselves. A
large part of why professional Hearthstone players stand out from the rest of us, is that they are able to maximize their chances of coming out on top
by making the best possible choice in a bad situation. However, sometimes this choice is taken out of their hands due to the card the Random Number
Generator (RNG) decides to bestow upon either the player, or their opponent. Join me, as we take a look at a possible solution to this problem that can
sometimes cheat pro players out of their rightly deserved winnings. In the past, tournament organizers have banned certian cards that tended to snowball

What Is Betting In The Bible
The Bible contain examples of betting: Samson's wager in Judges 14:12 and the warriors' that were betting over Jesus' pieces of clothing in Mark
15:24. In neither one of the cases is betting exhibited in a decent light. The Bible likewise says the throwing of parcels with the end goal of choice
making (Joshua 18:10; Nehemiah 10:34). What's more, Proverbs 16:33 accentuates the power of God: "The part is thrown into the lap, however
its each choice is from the LORD." But the scriptural reason for making bets was not to test one's fortunes or to increase material riches. The
primary motivation behind playing the lottery is to win cash, and the Bible lets us know what our state of mind toward cash ought to be. So
frequently, wealth impede a man's otherworldly advantage (Mark 4:19; 10:25). Jesus educates, "Nobody can serve two experts. It is possible that
you will detest the one and affection the other, or you will be given to the one and disdain the other. You can't serve both God and cash" (Luke
16:13). Initially Timothy 6:10 is the place we locate the popular cautioning that the adoration for cash is the base of a wide range of malice.... Show
more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The truth of the matter is, God needs individuals to procure their cash sincerely by buckling down: "The person why should unwilling work might not
eat" (2 Thessalonians 3:10). We should pick up riches through tirelessness, as a blessing from the Lord: "Apathetic hands make for neediness, yet
persevering hands bring riches" (Proverbs

Risk Assessment At The United States Army
Risk Assessment Before Risk Assessment can be addressed we must first briefly discuss Risk Management (RM), the framework of which is where
risk assessment resides for the United States Army. The Army uses RM to ensure mission accomplishment in current as well as future operations and
applies to operations and non–operational activities (Department of the Army [ATP 5–19], 2014, p. 1–1). The Army process of RM utilizes five steps
as part of its holistic approach to mitigate risks, but because this paper's focus in on the Risk Assessment of the management solutions identified last
week, it will only focus on the first two steps of RM, Identify the hazard and Assess the hazard.
Hazards exist in all environments, are present in all activities, and a hazard, as it relates to our assessment of the Special Activities Command (SAC),
creates a condition that has the potential for mission degradation (ATP 5–19, 2014, p. 1–4). After the hazards have are identified, Step two in the RM
processes involves assigning a level of risk to these hazards by estimating probability and severity of loss linked to risk (DA Pam 385–30, 2014, p. 6).
Probability is the likelihood of a hazard scenario occurring and severity is the approximation of harm given the scenario occurring (DA Pam 385–30,
2014, p. 6). Although probability and severity are both considered in assessing hazards they are independent of one another or in other words, when
estimating probability, it has no direct relationship to

Essay on Mat201-Mod1-Case Assign1
TRIDENT UNIVERSITY
CHARISSA S. WILLIAMS
MODULE 1/CASE ASSIGNMENT 1
MAT201 BASIC STATISTICS/CASE 1
DR. WALTER MAKOVOS
FEB 20, 2013
Module 1 – Case
Introduction to Probability Solve the following problems showing your work:
1. In a poll, respondents were asked whether they had ever been in a car accident. 177 respondents indicated that they had been in a car accident and
107 respondents said that they had not been in a car accident. If one of these respondents is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting
someone who has been in a car accident?
2. The data set represents the income levels of the members of a country club. Find the probability that a randomly selected member earns at least ...
Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
3. Explain the basic logic of probability theory
Probability can be a complex field of mathematics, but in its simplest definition it is the likelhood of an event being true divided by the total number
of possibilities. For example, flipping a coin has two possibilities: heads or tails. There is only one way for a coin to land on heads, so the answer to this
probability question is 1:2.
1. In a poll, respondents were asked whether they had ever been in a car accident. 177 respondents indicated that they had been in a car accident and
107 respondents said that they had not been in a car accident. If one of these respondents is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting
someone who has been in a car accident? – 177 = Probability of choosing someone who was in a car accident because fraction cannot be reduced any
more 107 than it is. So the odds are 177 out of 284 total choices.
2. The data set represents the income levels of the members of a country club. Find the probability that randomly selected member earns at least
$102,000 INCOME (Thousands of dollars) 108 128 82 138 85 108 88 76 158 208 79 98 148 85 128 118 88 168 73 118
– There are 20 total members, 11 members with income > or = to 102, 000. The probability is 9 chance that a person will chosen that has a total

income of $102,000 or

A Brief Biography of Pierre de Fermat
Pierre de Fermat Pierre de Fermat was born in 1601 "near Montauban". He was born to a French leather merchant and was home–schooled. All of his
free time was spent studying mathematics. He spent a good amount of time in his life arguing with Descartes which ended well and turned out to
be "a friendly conclusion". He found math very fun, delving into its deepest points and "amused himself by conjecturally restoring the work of
Apollonius on plane loci." Fermat didn't publish anything in his lifetime. He simple wrote a few papers but never really documented his works
completely. HIS work wasn't found written until after he died at Castres on January 12,1665 "on loose sheets of paper or written in the margins of
works which he had read, annotated, and unaccompanied by any proof." This makes it hard to tell when it was written and whether or not he had
taken the ideas from someone else at that time period. At the age of 30, he became a counselor for his local parliament at Toulouse. He was known
as a very good and honest counselor. There, he worked on most of his mathematical studies and was mostly self taught. He wrote most of his papers
there as well, even though the papers are few in numbers. His papers were the "final forms" of his works and cannot be "dated before 1660". He never
dated anything himself, making it hard to pinpoint a particular date in which he had written these works. Fermat studied many statistical problems.
Here is an example of one

Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility

Similar to Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility (7)

More from Leslie Sanchez

More from Leslie Sanchez (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility