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An 'Invidious Comparison,'
Class and Status, 1929-60:
Effects of Employment, Cost and Time
on Veblen's Theory of Class*
By FRANOS P. NOE and KIRK W . ELIFSON
ABSTRACT. A consequent of Thorstein Veblen's theory of "invidious com-
parison' is investigated as it applies to class and status. This research
evaluates specifically shifting socioeconomic effects within the structure of
society that are often taken to be important causes for determining leisure
interests by dass. That time, employment, personal debt, and costs effect
leisure were hypothesized to be decisive factors in the class leisure outcome.
The relative and total predictive infiuence of the independent variables was
analyzed and found to predict differences of leisure interests between the
social classes. The findings lend support to Veblen's notion of the leisured
class and its acquisition of status.
THE PROCESS of social class differentiation has received much attention in
sociological theory but none with so "playful a tone" as that of Veblen's
theory of a leisure class. The idea of "invidious comparison' serves to con-
ceptualize personal perceptions of class inequality inflated by vindictive
emotions (1). But that was not unlike the rancorous inflection in Veblen's
writings which castigated "vested interests" and the "common man" alike.
Inequality was plainly personal effrontery experienced not as an distract
reality but firsthand through lack of wealth's symbols manifest in leisure.
If he were alive today the tone of his work might be different for "he could
not believe that many millions of people would have so much leisure and
so much money that they could not quite ga on spending than as earlier
leisure classes, small minorities, had taught them to do. This American
abundance has crushed beneath its weight not only Marx's vision of the
increasing misery of the proletariat, but also Vefolen's vision of the
pinched classes desperately sedang on small incomes to manifest pecuniary
respectability . . ." (2). Changes have occurred in the growth of leisure
in keeping witii the population and economy, but that for Veblea was not
* An eiriier draft of tliu paper iras pr««eiited at tlie Americaa Socidogical Astocia-
tion meetiag. New Yatk, 197J. Partul support for this raeardi came firon the U.S.
Department of Interior, Natkuial Park Service.
382 American foutnd of Economics and Sociology
the issue (3). The problem was one of status and how leisure controlled
inequality between the classes.
I
PROBLEMS
THE SOCIAL PROCESS controlling a display of conspicuous consumption and
leisure had been specified by Veblen as developing from a primitive state of
personal indulgence to that of vicarious indulgence through others. The
indulgence of wealth requires a wastefid exhibition. The most presdgeful
waste is acquired through an indulgence of time. The property of time is
converted to nonproductive or pseudo productive pursuits as in leisure.
Prestige is then acquired by turning potentially productive time into free
time, and indulging excessively in its use. So few could apparently indulge
the luxury, according to Veblen, that they naturally became models of
emulation and stood at the head of the social structure in point of reputabil-
ity. Diffusion of influence down the social strata from a homophilious
position by the upper class was simply a result of that strata achieving a
"norm of reputability for the community." The root source of differentia-
tion for Veblen, leading to comparative inequality among strata, was based
on wealth and the control of wealth and as happened to Karl Marx, accusa-
tions were levied against Veblen of offering a monistic-simplistic explana-
tion on the basis of statements taken out of context (4).
There is equally no misjudging the purpose for which wealth was in-
tended. That "the basis of which good repute in any hi^ly organized
industrial community ultimately rests in pecuniary strength; and the means
of pecuniary strength, and so gaining or retaining a good name, are leisure
and a conspicuous consumption of goods" (5). Domination of style by
the upper leisure class is contrasted to the absence of that style in the
lower class. The resulting stratification of society is accomplished through
the percqjtion of conspicuous consumption where the upper class displays
lavish leisure symbols which cause the lower classes to make 'invidious
comparisons.' The leisured were to be envied and emulated since they both
wasted time and spent wealth to prove their position. Class distinction
meant for Vd:)len the personal experience of being denied a leisure-class
style. He did not recognize the possibility of distinct class styles resulting
from the struggle to cJjtain income, education, and a prestigious occupation.
Emphasis was rather placed upon the perception of wealth and its display.
Leisure was symbolically the turning point around which the perception
of class revolved. One gete the impression from reading VdDlan th^ the
Class and Status, 1929-1960 383
upper class, almost exclusively, possessed leisure while not much leisure
was available to the lower classes. Yet the haute decolletage leisure of the
elite, real for a time in the late 1800s when Veblen was writing, quickly
fell out of fashion and became disaedited (6). This historical fact does
not necessarily imply that leisure, too, was lost as an element of status dif-
ferentiation among the classes. Veblen could not be literally believed
since evidence has proved history wrong that distinct leisure styles emerged
for America's differential social classes (7). An objective definition of
class, based not upon perception of inequality but upon patterns of educa-
tion, occupation, and income that are unequally distributed throughout
American society, differentiates leisure styles. In either case, the role of
leisure continues to play a symbolic function in that some classes express
a greater preference for one kind of activitiy, and not for others. Rather
than just representing a dominant style as Veblen would have it, leisure
distinguishes among varied class strata. Numerous studies of an empirical
orientation have documented the class-leisure relationship (8), but these
studies, also like Veblen's, do not att^npt any determination of specific
economic changes which affect the availability of leisure. Most of these
inquiries began with a preconceived stratified system of wealth or income.
They rarely evaluated changes in economic conditions, changes affecting
how wealth is translated into leisure.
If we are to assume, like Veblen, that displays of leisure symbolize one's
status, under what economic conditions would a display of leisure accen-
tuate status gain ? Further, if we are to accept, unlike Veblen, the fact that
various classes are pattemed after particular leisure styles, under what
kinds of economic conditions would a social class evince greater interest
in leisure? An approach to both these questions can be made simulta-
neously from an understanding of basic status processes.
Leisure behavior allows for exclusivity and waste that can be used to
control status recognition. Permitting voluntaristic discretion and the
ability to be different is part of leisure behavior as is the possibility of
waste beyond necessity. Both waste and exclusivity in leisure should be
heightened during a downturn in economic conditions when r«ources are
made scarce. Recognition of leisure is heightened when resources are
scarce because fewer individuals have access to them, and those that do
become the exclusive. The wasting of resources on leisure is likewise
heightened when resources are scarce since many more of society's members
have to be intent on obtaining their necessities. While Veblen's argument
contains serious flaws, his belief that the upper class possesses a superior
384 American Journal of Economics and Sociology
advantage in asserting a right to leisure may not be totally unreasonable.
In this respect, it may be very appropriate to hypothesize that the upper
classes will possess an interest in leisure when economic resources are
scarcest, (faerdsy increasing their status recognition. The lower middle
classes are hypothesized as taking leisure during favorable economic cycles
which make leisure more available, thereby reducing their possibility of
gaining status recognition.
Shifting economic changes within the structure of society affecting class
leisure interests must first be identified to test these hypotheses. The
availability of such records relevant to employment, cost and worktime
in the United States are limited and more likely available and accessible
beginning with the 1930s. Prior to that time, the reliability of economic
indicators is questionable when they are available on an annual basis. G)n-
sequently, the problem of testing the implications of Veblen's theory within
a longitudinal design requires a twofold solution: that of first devising a
reliable record of leisure in relation to class; and second, relating that rec-
ord to the economic structure in order tD determine possible effects of
worktime, employment and costs.
n
VARIABLES
Dependent. A measure of leisure interest during die years 1929-1960
was developed for each of two distinctive social strata by using the tech-
nique of content analysis. Information reflecting leisure interest was ob-
tained from four popular magazines, two of which consistently have been
read by the upper and middle classes and two of which have been read
by the lower middle class (9). These social class types are derived from
a model synthesized by G>leman and Neugarten, who reviewed the bulk
of empirical sociological studies focusing on social class from 1920 to
I960 (10).
In coding the content of the magazines. Max Kaplan's system of classi-
fication of four leisure types was utilized to represent leisure interest (11)
but modified to include the arts, both the "fine" and "popular" varieties;
sport, consisting of spectator and participatory kinds; mobility, designating
travel activities; immobility, denoting activities of restricted kinesic and
social inter^on of which reading and reclining are examples. Coding
began in 1929 and every issue of the four representative magazines was
aided throu^ I960. Leisure interest was operationalized by establishing
a standardized rate for articles appearing in any of the four types over
articles appearing in any other sdDJect category.
Class and Status, 1929-1960 385
Two additional categories of Kaplan, association and sociability, ap-
peared too infrequently to be of any use in calculating a rate of leisure
interest. Not because visiting, entertaining, and participation in voluntary
organizations are not done, but rather because they tend to make poor fare
for national magazines. Although other gatekeeping reasons are surely
operating, too few cases on associations and sociability are available to
justify giving them a place in the final analysis.
The activities of art, sport, mobility, and immobility indicative of leisure
interest provided the basis of a series covering a thirty-year span specifying
a rate for the middle class. The coding of magazine content was based
upon the commonly held assiimption that the media appeal to the interests
or preferences of a reader, that is, reinforces the status quo of the readership
audience. That coding is essential to the interpretation of the data (12).
The four types of leisure activities have been collapsed into a single depen-
dent variable in order to obtain a single measure of leisure interest by class.
Leisure activities cannot be treated separately because that would not reflect
a class's total rate of interest in leisure. Various reliability checks and
validity criteria were employed to assess the accuracy of the data (13).
The results were favorably measured so that a record of leisure interest by
class was generated for that period. The next step involved selecting in-
dependent variables of theoretical substance which were likely to have direct
or indirect effects on the class-leisure series.
Independent. The prc^lem of series availability was unavoidable. The
most applicable series from a theoretical standpoint were again either in-
complete, questionable, or totally lacking. Yet given this situation, eco-
nomic series were available that could be used in a predictive scheme.
Taken together, these variables were conceived as comprising economic
shifts in the direction of sodety which either expand or constrict leisure
opportunities by class. A body of research on leisure has continually ac-
knowledged the influence of woric and time on leisure (14), while eco-
nomic analyses have identified rost and expenditure influences (15). For
these reasons, time series were chosen to measure the work, time, and ex-
penditure influences. The indicators were also selected because they rep-
resented economic influences not directly applicable to members of any
particular class.
An indicator of labor force employment was chosen to represent worit
involvement. The series measures the rats of unemployment reflecting
either a positive ot negative labor climate (16). A second indicator mea-
sures the amount of hours worked in nonagricultural enterprises. Like
employment, v/hidx h iiMtfumental for acquiring status and wealth, work-
386 American journd oj Economics and Sociology
time too produces the tangible effects of income ^hsxi coupled with wage
rate (17). While high employment rates and wages perhaps accelerate
opportunities for leisure participation, lengthy work hours and unemploy-
ment are likely to inhibit such growth.
Another set of factors, more directly involved in leisure opportunity
are cost and debt incursion. A leisure price index developed by Owen
(18) on the basis of expenditure or cost was adopted (19). Increasing
expenditures are frequently assumed to demonstrate growth in leisure
"which has grown more rapidly than the national economy in the 1900 to
1961 period" (20). The leisure expenditure series is thought to have a
positive impact upon leisure class opportunities relative to socioeconomic
status (21). Individual debt was chosen because middle income groups,
as opposed to lower or higher income groups, incur proportionately larger
liabilities, thereby demonstrating a favorable growth climate which might
reasonably be suited to a higher rate of leisure interest (22).
Indicators like educational enrollment could have been selected given
traditional class arguments, but they either lacked sufficient controls or
were simply unavailable annually for the time period covered. Measures
like Gross National Product, while available, are such gross indicators that
the risk of multicollinearity with other series is so great they were avoided.
Indicators were also selected because they represent economic influences
most directly pertinent for individual action. In any case, most economic
series will have some degree of intercorrelation, but that is simply un-
avoidable. Because intercorrelations are always possible, series have to be
chosen for their distinctiveness. No matter what the final selection may
be, some degree of intercorrelation will remain. Thus, the researcher must
sift down a potential set of indicators to at most one or two best predictors
of economic shifts. Those measures of time, employment, personal debt,
and cost actually adopted for inclusion were decidedly better in terms of
the above considerations. To determine the best predictors a multiple step-
wise regression model will be followed in the analysis.
HI
METHODS AND FINDINGS
TIME, EMPLOYMENT, personal debt, and cost series were hypothesized to
be central in the class-leisure outcome. But in order to measure the relative
effects of these series, a number of intermediate steps were necessary to
guarantee that the independent variables were not invalidated by violating
assumptions related to the least squares regression model.
To ensure that the independent variables incorporated in the respective
Class and Status, 1929-1960 387
models were free from the problems associated with multicollinearity, the
standard errore associated with the regression coefficients were closely ex-
amined and have been presented in Table 1 (23).
A second consideration, that associated with auto-regressive disturbances,
is crucial. Time series data, especially economic indices, invariably exhibit
positive serial correlatcm as a function of how they are generated. "Eco-
nomic growth and business cycles are the principle reason for this," Fox
says (24). Rather than measuring the singular effect of an independent
variable, it is quite likely that multiple effects are being generated by a
single series. This is especially true as concerns the typical business cycle
which lasts from three to five years.
A final problem, not unrelated to the business cycle, is making allowance
for "secular trend" which if not controlled creates unrealistlcaUy high cor-
relation coefficients as a result of lengthy time sequences. Elimination of
these corrupting influences which contribute to auto-correlation is possible
by transforming the original data. First differences, moving averages,
and parabola trend adjustments are commonly applied techniques (25).
In this analysis, a moving average approach was applied to the time series.
The unit of analysis thus became the absolute deviation from a five-year
moving average. While this method has worked adequately In the past,
there is no reason to assume that it will automatically reduce serial correla-
tion. As a way of checking, a Durban Watson test-statistic was applied
to the data (26). The test results as expected fell within an acceptable
range. Finally, the assumption of linearity was met in that no serious de-
viations occurred within the series.
The results of our findings were confined to five independent variables:
Per cent unemployment rate, real hourly wage rate, recreation price, indi-
vidual debt, and average hours woriced per week by private, nonagricul-
tural wage and salary workers in the United States. Variables that were
eliminated from consideration after testing also related to measures of em-
ployment, time, and cost, but theoretically and empirically were not un-
biased estimators (27). The relative and total predictive influence of
these five independent variables was analyzed and found to predict dif-
ferences of leisure interest betweKi the social classes.
When interpreting the findings in Table 1, one must always be conscious
of the fact that the focus is upon a cycle of perhaps no more than three
years, within of course, a thirty-year period. Within this perspective of
limited duration, cyclical fluctuations are able to be judged for their im-
mediate impact on leisure.
Table 1 indicates that hours worked per week exhibits a modest positive
388 American Journal of Economics and Sociology
relationship with leisure rates for all classes. Although many leisure pro-
ponents argue that a reduction in hours woriced necrasajily leads to in-
creased leisure, the results belie their contentions and reveal that when
short-term fluctuations are considered a positive relationship emerges.
Further examination reveals that such a reUtionship is not unwarranted
when related to past research. The greatest reduction in hours wirked
occurred before 1930 and since that time the temporal gains have been
less in hours worked but greater in Hrtended weekends, holidays, reduced
work week, and vacation time (28). Hours worked are also related to
earned income whidi in turn offers greater purchasing potential for leisure
from surplus income (29). Moreover, the reduction of hours worked
ZEHO-OKDER CCnUtSLATlOtl WTRIM OF Tl'K PREDICTOR VARUBLES
KiO "MO DEPE^HDEtrr VARIABLIfS*
1.
2.
3.
4 .
5 .
G.
•7.
v»tlablc
Hours Uockeil Per Heck
Becreatiop Prieo
Bodl Haurly Hage Rate
Unemiiloyiaeiit Rate
.Indiviaual Debt
LoweI Middle C1BS3
Leisure Intaieat
UpEier and l^p^er Middle
CioSE leisure Interest
1
1.000
.-.ooe
-.349
-.460
.431
.228
.211
2
1,000
-.615
-.251
-.151
-.402
.589
3
l.UOO
. i l l
.344
.179
-.687
4
l.ogo
-.377
-.092
-.087
J'.ooo
,G!7
-.173
G
1.000
-.345
7
1.000
nie aatrix values »re baw^il on aonual dita for ths years ly29-19(10 with the exception ot tht
H«r y u r s (194a-1945) Hliii:ti wsre excluCted due to the extrunw fluctuations of the econoinic
ocE ducin3 this
does not seem to be motivated by a felt need for more leisure; rather the
influence of unionism, legislation, increased hourly wage rate, automation,
and faiigue, appear to be more incisive (30). Moonlighting is perhaps
increased where daily woric hours are reduced. (31). Finally, hours
worked may be just an artifact of how much discretion the employee has
over time so that duration becomes secondary in importance to leisure if
autonomy is present (32).
Another independent vari^le, unemployment rate, has virtually a neg-
ligible affect on the middle da^es in that increasing layoffs retrench leisure
possibilities. A number of issues may be discerned given unemployment
even though the correlation coefficients ate rather weak and hardly worth
reference except for the fact that the short span of the time q^es covers
some thirty years.
Class and Status, 1929-1960 389
The issue of unemployment was seriously raised by Slobodin (33) as
being synonymous with leisure under the condition that compensation
would take place for the lack of work, a situation now achieved for many
occupations within union and governmental workmen's compensation
guarantees. More traditionally, however, unemployment is termed "en-
forced leisure," and looked upon as having a neutralizing effect upon
leisure options (34). Beside the loss of income which results from un-
anployment, the abiiity to manipulate one's schedule is greatiy reduced.
"Full employment gives more people a chance to get around the schedules
by working at second jobs if the standard schedules are too short for them
or getting away with absenteeism if they are too long" (35 ). Curtailment
of autonomy, not only economically but also within the context of hours
woriced, results from unemployment which affects leisure opportunities.
The notion that only the worker is entitled to the reward of leisure for
labor is still very much prevalent in American society.
Recreational price, individual ddst, and real hourly wage rate are essen-
tially die major sources of differentiation between the classes with regard
to leisure. The upper and upper middle classes decidely find leisure most
compelling when its costs are high and when wages in society are de-
creasing. Both factors contribute to the formation of social barriers which
the lower classes are unable to surmount because they rely on earned in-
come and must regard cost relative to wages as a factor in their rate of
leisure intere^, a finding entirely consistent with patterns of leisure life
styles characterized for liiose strata.
Upper class members are described as living in "great luxury for their
leisure time and recreational activities have traditionally included polo,
yachting, and other sports that cannot be easily imitated by those lower on
the status ladder, although this pattern has been changing somewhat with
the growing democratization of sports" (36). The vast middle dass or
lower middle class also consistently fashions a pattern of leisure activity.
"They take a two-week vacation in the country every year. They watch TV
a couple of hours every evening when not at the movies or visit nei^ibors
for a game of Scrabble. They read the daily newspaper, a weekly news
magazine, and a monthly woman's magazine, but not many books" (37).
Leisure life styles differ among strata not only in what they actively pursue,
but just as decisively are effected differentially by economic conditions.
Looking now to Table 2, the total amount of vatiance explained for the
upper and upper middle class was about 41 per cent, while for the lower
middle class explained variance was about 49 per cent. The importance
of the variables in contributing to the explanation of the criterion variables
390 American journal oj Economics and Sociology
is indicated by their respective standardi2ed beta weighte (38). The issue
of multicollinearity necessitated the removal of several variables from the
final models. The magnitude of the standard errors associated with those
variables indicated that the associated regression coefficients were extremely
unstable, unlike those presented in Table 2.
The magnitude of the explained variance confirms the earlier position that
leisure interest is more likely to be accelerated for the upper and upper
middle class during periods of economic downturn where wage rates, either
hourly or salary, are on the decline. Coupled with this phenomena is the
TABLE 2
F£GPIS5tOH AHU.VSIS OP THE E£FENDEHT VARIASLES
gn't Variable! Ufper and Middle Class Leisure Interest
Independent Variable Zeio-pider unstdndardiied Standard StandardizatI
negre'ssion Coefficient Ectai Beta Height
Real Hourly Wage Rate -0.6B7 -4.53 1.16 -0.6B7
.473
Variable! Lower aid Lower Middle Class Lgisure
Independent Vaitable
Individual Debt
ltecrea,tion Fiice
Zero-Order
CutrElation
0.627
-0.403
unstajidardized
Fagro56ian CoefEicianc
6.27
-2.93
Etanda'cd
ECtat
1,96
1.69
Standardized
Beta Weight
o.seo
-0.314
R • .490
fact that when leisure costs are moving up, interest in leisure is also on the
increase for the upper and upper middle class. If the conspicuous con-
sumption hypothesis of status acquisition has any merit at all, then perhaps
it acquires greater significance when resources are scarce in society. The
upper and upper middle class are not solely controlled by sources of wealth
related exclusively to earned income, whereas the lower middle classes, for
the most part, are dependent upon earned income. The costs of leisure
are also influential in determining whether the lower middle class rate of
interest wanes or expands. The evidence suggests, within the limitations
of the variables, that the rate of leisure interest for the lower middle class
is increased by accelerating wage rates and reducing costs of leisure. Most
importantly, the predominant factor of individual debt which for the mid-
class and Status, 1929-1960 391
die income group signifies a climate of favorable growth is highly related to
leisure interest for the lower middle classes and not in the least for the
upper and upper middle classes. The results offer additional substantia-
tion that a positive correlation exists between the size of deficit and level
of leisure expenditure for an average-sized family (39). Perhaps symbols
Of status identification are less a factor in explaining lower-middle class
leisure styles when compared to the upper classes since only favorable con-
ditions of wealth prevail when interest is high in leisure. Conditions of
scarcity and inaccessibility heighten status claims, but for the lower middle
class, unlike the upper and upper middle class, interest is higher when
leisure is plentiful.
IV
CONCLUSIONS
THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS of the economic institution serve to regulate
leisure interests by social class. The incumbent pressures of wealth are not
so uniform across class strata. If scarcity of resources gives rise to status
differentiation because one class strata is able to capitalize upon that condi-
tion, then leisure interests for the upper and upper middle classes seem to
be so determined. The lower middle class perhaps cannot afford the lux-
ury of pursuing leisure during periods of economic downturn and so pro-
vide paradoxically a condition favorable to "invidious compadron" for the
upper and upper middle classes.
The symbolic importance of leisure is not necessarily of equal value for
every social class. While many studies mentioned earlier have demon-
strated that leisure activities are not alike across America's social classes,
these same studies do not determine when and how status is affected.
Neither does this particular study, but it does proceed a step further by
showing that interest in leisure is relative to the economic situation. If
leisure symbolizes exclusivity and abundance through waste as Vd^Ien
would have it, then the reduced possibility of wealth will make an even
greater difference. When wages are declining, for example, it would not
be very prudent for a lower middle class member of society who relies
largely on a salary to go on a European trip, or take out a membership in a
sport club since the economic climate works against such consumption.
But for the upper and upper middle class member, the economic climate
for investing in leisure may be most advantageous for gaining status recog-
nition when things are on the downturn. The exposure in public would
be more pronounced because few individuals take part in it. Recognition
would also be more salient since a wasteful display of abundance projects
392 American Journal of Economics and Sociology
a higher contrast against a background of scarcity. Both recognition and
exposure immeasurably add to status recognition.
The evidence against Vdilen's idea of 'invidious comparison' based upon
pecuniary emulation of the upper strata and difiusion downward cannot
totally be dismissed because squash or day court tennis never got down
to the working class. Placing emphasis on the leisure activity itself as
being indicative of class position may not be so important as when a leisure
activity is engaged in or sought after. The timing of the activities" occur-
rence may be more important for gaining status recognition than trying to
determine where activities are similar or different among strata. The per-
ception of not being part of a dominant life style was very explicit in Vd>-
Ien's conception of 'invidious comparison.' While life styles tend to vary
among classes with no dominant theme, there may still be a kind of leisure
class model based not on any pattern of leisure activities but based on access
to them. The kind of dominance of the upper and upper middle class may
be one of engaging in leisure when the lower middle class cannot afford
to do so. Thus, the symbolic importance of leisure may be more important
for acquiring status recognition in the upper classes. For the lower classes,
leisure may have much less status merit.
Conspicuous consumption never meant just the potlasb display of sym-
bols. Rather it focused too On scarcity and nonproductivity. The option
to waste time or resources and to be unproductive during periods of eco-
nomic recession carries greater weight than when that activity is easily acces-
sible during periods of abundance. Although Veblen doggedly pursued
that line of reasoning, his explanations were clouded by an ideology which
engulfed tiie elite leisured class. Ignoring the elitist inference, the upper
strata, whether a leisured class or not, appear to be more adaptable to tak-
ing their leisure during periods of economic downturn. ITie findings that
were analyzed lend support to Veblen's notion of the leisured class and
status recognition (40).
Nation^ Park Service Scitnce Center
National Space Technology Laboraiones
Bay Si. Louii, Mm. 39520
and
Georgia State Unlvertity
Atlanta, Ga. 3030}
1. Thorstein Vebloa, The Theory of the Leiiure Class (New York: Macnjillan,
1899), p. J4.
2. David Reiiman, "A Lecture on Veblen," JoarHid of General Education, April,
1912, p. 223.
3. George Piik, Leisure Spmding-Behavhr (Pbitaddphia: Univ. of Pennsylvania
Pre«, 1963); John D. Owen, The Price of Leimre (MontMal: McGUl-Queen's Univ.
Press, 1970); Tbe Conference Board, New York. 1973.
Class and Status, 1929-1960 393
4. As an example of contextual emphasis, the following is ofieced: "But the gravest
significance of this cleavage that go runs through the population of the advanced tndus'
trial countries lies in the fact that it is a division between the vested interests and the
conunan man. It is a division between those who control the conditions of work and
the rate and volume of output and to whom the net output of industry goes as free
income, on the one hand and those others who have the work to do and to whom a
livelihood is allowed by these persons In control, on the other hand. In paini of num-
bers it it a very uneven division, of course." Veblen, The Vested Interests and the
Common Man (New York: Capricorn Books, 1319), p. 161.
J. Veblen, ibid., p. 84.
6. Lloyd Morris, "The 400," In Norman P. Cantor and Michael S. Werthman, eds..
The Hhtory of Popular Culture Since I8I5 (New York: Macralllan, 1947), pp. 122-27.
7. Francis P. Noe, "Leisure Life Styles: Indicators of Social Class," unpubliihed
doctoral dissertation. State Univ. of New York at Buffalo, 1972, pp. 14—18.
5. Alfred C. Clarke, "Leisure and Occupational Prestige," in Eric Larrabee and
R. Meyersohn, eds., Mass Leisure (Glencoe, 111.: Free Press, 19Ifi); Robert Havighwrst
and Kenneifa Feigenbaum, "Leisure and Life Styles," American Journal of Sociology,
6(January, 1959}, pp. 391—404; George Lundberg, Mirra Komaravsky and Mary Alice
Mclnerney, Leisure: A Suburbm Study (1934) (New York: Agathon Press, 1969);
L. C. Michelson, "The New Leisure Class," American Journal of Sodohgy, J9 (Jan-
uary, 19J4), pp, 371-78; Francis P. Noe, "Autonomous Spheres of Leisure Activity for
the Industrial Executive and the Blue Collarite," Journal of Leisure Research, Vol. 5,
No. 4 (Fall, 1971), pp. 220-49; Qyde White, "Social Class Differences In the Use of
Leisure," in Larrabee and Meyersohn, op. cil.
9. Four monthly magazines, all of which were published during the period 1929—
1960, were finally selected for analysis. The Atlanta Monthly and Harpers were choien
because they were predominantly read by the upper and upper middle classes, and
American and Saturday Evening Post were chosen because they were preferred by the
lower middle class. "The extent of the validity of these magazines as representing a
distinct class affiliation rests upon crude readership information, historical assessments,
the autobiographical judgments of managing editors, periodic critiques of the magazines
by the working press, a survey of circulation editors' opinions about those who read
their magazines, and finally, communication content analyses carried out by social
scientists at various times in the history of these magazines. See Noe, "Leisure Life
Styles," Op. cit.
10. Richard Coleman and Bernice Neugarten, Social Status in the City (San Fran-
cisco: Jossey, Boss, Inc., 1971), pp. 261-^3.
n . Kaplan, Leisure m America: A Social Inquiry (New York: Wiley, I960).
12. MiltOQ C. Albrecht, "Does Literature Reflect Common Values?" in S. M. Lipset
and N. M. Smelser, eds.. Sociology: The Progress of a Decade (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:
Prentice Hail, Inc., 1956); Irene Traviss, "Changes in the Form of Alienation: 1900 vs.
the 1950s," American Sodoiogical Review, 34 (February, 1969), pp. •46-57; George
Gerbner, "Toward 'Cultural Indicators': the Analysis of Masj Mediated Public Message
Systems," in Gerbner et al., eds.. The Analysis of Communication Content (New York:
Wiley, 1969).
13. An inter-coder reliability check was conducted on tbe data gathering procedures.
The agreement was in every case above 80 per cent. A more complete explanation of
the techniques and coding procedures is available to Noe, "Leisure Life Styles," op. at.
The class-leisure findings corroborated earUer cross-sectional studies that were concerned
primarily with the upper and middle classes (Lundberg et al., 1934; Havighurat and
Feigenbaum, 1959; Burdge, 1969; Clarke, 1956; White, 1956). (Lundberg, et al,
"Ldsure," op. cit.; Havighurat and Feigenbaum, op. cit.; Rabel Burdge, "Levels of
Occupational Prestige and Leisure Activity," Journal of leisure Research, 1 (1969), pp.
2«2~74.)
14. S. R. Parker, "Work and Non-Work in Three Occupations," Socioto^cal Re-
view, 13(Marth, 1965), pp. 6!-75; Edwin O. Smiegel, ed.. Work «nd teisute: A Con-
temporary Social Problem (New Haven, Conn.: Yale Univ. Press, 1963); Harold
Wilensky, "Labor and Leisure: Intellectual Tradition," Industrial Relations, 1 (February,
1962), pp. 1-12.
394 American Journal of Economics and Sociology
15. Owen, op. cit.; Fisk, op. cit.; George Soule, "The Econonrucs of Leisure," An-
nals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 313 (September, 1957),
pp. 16-24.
16. Annual estimates of the unemployment rate were noade by the U.S. Bureau of
Labor, but adjusted for 1957 changes in the Bureau's definition by Owen, op. cit.,
p. 99. The index for average hours worked per week by private, non-agricultural wage
and salary workers in the United States is found in a variety of sources. The inclu-
sion of sucb an index was suggested by the work of Owen, ibid., p. 77, who used it
successfully in an economic analysis of the demand for leisure time. The index mea-
sures average weekly hours worked by both salaried personnel and wage earners.
17. Hourly compensation, including various fringe benefits and cash payments, fot
wage and salary employees in the private non-farm sector or the U.S. economy was
subsequently "divided by an index of consumer prices to obtain real compensation per
hour," ibid., p. 98.
18. Ibid., pp. 84-6.
19. A price index for leisure was adapted by Owen {ibid., p. 9J) from Department
of Commerce reports. The indes measures annual expenditures for commercial recrea-
tion.
20. Op. cit., p. 84.
21. Lawrence G. Thomas, "Leisure Pursuits by Socioeconomic Strata," Journal of
Educational Sociology, 29 (May, 1950), pp. $67-77.
22. The net individual debt series takes into consideration short-term liabilities
anaong individuals. The data pertain to outstanding debt as of the end of the calendar
year. {Survey of Current Business, 1960),
23. Blalock has addressed the problem of multicoilinearity and its implications for
standard error of tihe partials; see H. M. Blalock Jr., ed.. Measurement in the Social
Sciences; Theories and Strategies (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1974).
24. Karl Fca, Intermediate Economic Statistics (New York: Wiley, 1968), p. 199.
21. An overview of trend adjustments is contained in an article by Silver, who
actually compared the differences between various methods. No method proved su-
perior to another. Silver did note that when using a moving average scheme it is ad-
visable to consider the business cycle which moves on an average of a five year rate.
To eliminate it as a latent correlate, a conservative approach would he to use a five
year moving deviation scheme which was in fact applinJ to the various series in ques-
tion. See Morris Silver, "Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States,"
Journal of Political Economy, 73 (June, 1965). PP- 237-55.
26. The Durbin-NPatson statistic appears to be the most generally used test, G. Dur-
bin and G. S. Watson, "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression I,"
Biometrika, 37(December, 19S0), pp. 410-11. A good treatment of the technique can
be found in Dennis J. Aigner, Basic Econometrics (Englewood ClifEs, N.J.: Prentice
Hall, Inc., 1971). For the upper and upper middle class series, D-W equals 2.01, P >
.01 and for the lower-middle class aeries, D-W equals 2.31, a value which falls in tbe
inconclusive range, indicating neither positive nor negative autoregression.
27. Two measures of Insure expenditures were so highly related that a single index,
recreation price, was chosen due to conceptual and empirical overlap. This was also
true for the "leisure time series" upon considering its covariation with work time.
Work time rather than hours of leisure per week was utilized.
28. Peter Henle, "Recent Growth of Paid Leisure for U.S. Workers," Monthly Labor
Review, 85 (March, 1962), pp. 249-57.
29. Thomas, op. cit.
30. Owen, op. cit.; Charles D. Stewart, "The Shortening Work Week » a Com-
ponent of Economic Growth," American Economic Review, 46(May, 1956), pp. 211-17;
H. Gregg Lewis, "Hours of Work and Hours of Leisure," Proceedings, Industrial Rela-
tions Research Association, 9th annual meeting, Madison, Wis., 1957; Gary S. Becker,
"A Throry of the Allocation of Time," in J. H. Burton Jr., et al., eds.. Readings m
Labor Market Analysis (1965) (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1971), pp.
106-25.
31. Nelson N. Foote, "Discussion of Shortening Work Week," American Economic
Class md Status, 1929-1960 395
Review, 46(May, 19J6), pp. 226-29; Harold 'WileiMky, "The Moonlighter," Industrial
Relations, J (October, J96J), pp. 105-24.
32. Noe, "Autonomous Spheres . . . ," op. cit.
33. H. L. Slobodin, "Unemployment or Leisure, 'Which?" American Federationist,
37(1930), pp. 12OJ-08.
34. A. D. Lindsay, "Unemployment: The Meanwhile Prdslem," Contemporary Re-
view, 143(1933), pp. 687-95.
3 J. Clark Kerr, "Discussion of the Shortening Work Week," op. cit., p. 222.
36. Kurt Mayer and 'Walter Buckley, Class and Society (New York; Random House,
1969), p. 9J.
37. Joseph Kahl, The American Class Structure (New York: Holt, Rinehart and
Winston, 1961), p. 109.
38. Quion McNemar, Psychological Statistics, 3d ed., (New York: Wiley, 1962).
39. Fisk, op. dt., p. 100.
40. See also J. B. Cullingworth, "Planning for Leisure," Urhan Studies, 1 (May,
1964), p. 17; Mirjorie N. Donald and Rt^rt J. Havighurst, "The Meanings of Lri-
sure," Socid/ Forces, 37(May, I9i9), p. 3J6; Eric Dunning, "The Spare Time Spec-
trum," unpublished paper, Univ. of Leicester, England, p. S6; Rolf MeyerstAn, "Tele-
vision and the Rest of Leisure," Public Opinion Quarterly, 32 (Spring, 1968), pp.
102-12; Wilbert Ellis Moore, Mim, Time and Society (New York: Wiley, 196J); Mar-
tin Neumeyer, "Tlie New Leisure and Social Objectives" Sociology and Social Research,
20(1936), p. 348; S. R. Parker, The Future of Work and Leisure (New York: Praeger,
1971); Leonard Reisiman, "Class, Leisure and Social Participation," American Socio-
logical Keview, 19(1914), pp. 79-80.
Japan Acts to Control Urban Growtfj
IN TOKYO, KAWASAKI, AND YOKOHAMA, there are trees that grow and
shed theic leaves four times a year, apparently due to the increased fumes
of car exhausts. Birds that have not fled to purer dimes or perished from
insecticide poisoning have been found to have asthma and bronchitis.
Certain rare and some common species of insects are rapidly disappearing
due to urhanization and indiscriminate use of insecticides. In Japan, a
country known for its reverence of natural beauty, from the perfection of
a single flower in a vase to the majesty of a snow-capped mountain land-
scape, nature is not only tragically out of balance; it has been crushed
almost out of existence.
The government is aware, as is private industry, of the growing im-
patience of the Japanese citizenry with the sad state of the country's envi-
ronment and the resultant effects on their standard of living. The forma-
tion of citi2en groups and organization of boycotts and picket lines have
forced both government and industry to act with increasing speed in deal-
ing with pollution problems. Private legal suits against government and
large industrial completes are common today in a country where such
actions would have been undiinkable a few decades ago. Japanese in all
396 American journal of Economics and Sociology
walks of life, aware that their daily comfort aad future well-being are at
stake, have shown themselves -willing to break centuries of traditional
acceptance of authority to demand a reversal of present trends.
The Japanese Government has plans for decentralization of industry,
which include relocation of factories from urban to rural districts and an
extensive hig^ speed rail transport s]retem that will serve |M:oposed new
cities of 250,000 population. Official efforts to reverse rural-urban migra-
tion may -well be helped by eflforts on the part of the Japanese themselves
to achieve a more equable distribution of population throughout the
country.
While satellite cities continue to expand rapidly, the largest cities of
Tokyo and Osaka have stopped growing, and Nagoya and Kyoto have
shown declining rates of increase. The fastest growth rates for urban
entities have been evidenced in medium-sized cities of between 200,000
and 299,000 persons and smaller-sized cities of 100,000 to 199.000. The
fact that these cities gained population even in regions and prefectures
that showed an over-all loss in growth indicates that there is a trend to-
ward a more localized migration. In addition, the rate of population loss
from rural regions to metropolitan areas has decreased, and return migra-
tion in, for example, the Tohoku region (northeast Japan) was 62 per cent
higher in 1968 dian in 196I.
If the present trends towards reverse migration are borne out, the govern-
ment's efforts to relocate and build new industry in the less urban areas will
be made easier. Public reaction to the Government Plan has been generally
favorable, but the Japanese people have shown by their spirited opposition
to continued pollution of their limited environment that their acceptance
of any plans for further economic development is contingent upon how
far and how fast the government is willing to go in following through on
its antipollution pledges.
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Wmbmgttm, D. C. 20036
kkIndividious comparison

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kkIndividious comparison

  • 1. An 'Invidious Comparison,' Class and Status, 1929-60: Effects of Employment, Cost and Time on Veblen's Theory of Class* By FRANOS P. NOE and KIRK W . ELIFSON ABSTRACT. A consequent of Thorstein Veblen's theory of "invidious com- parison' is investigated as it applies to class and status. This research evaluates specifically shifting socioeconomic effects within the structure of society that are often taken to be important causes for determining leisure interests by dass. That time, employment, personal debt, and costs effect leisure were hypothesized to be decisive factors in the class leisure outcome. The relative and total predictive infiuence of the independent variables was analyzed and found to predict differences of leisure interests between the social classes. The findings lend support to Veblen's notion of the leisured class and its acquisition of status. THE PROCESS of social class differentiation has received much attention in sociological theory but none with so "playful a tone" as that of Veblen's theory of a leisure class. The idea of "invidious comparison' serves to con- ceptualize personal perceptions of class inequality inflated by vindictive emotions (1). But that was not unlike the rancorous inflection in Veblen's writings which castigated "vested interests" and the "common man" alike. Inequality was plainly personal effrontery experienced not as an distract reality but firsthand through lack of wealth's symbols manifest in leisure. If he were alive today the tone of his work might be different for "he could not believe that many millions of people would have so much leisure and so much money that they could not quite ga on spending than as earlier leisure classes, small minorities, had taught them to do. This American abundance has crushed beneath its weight not only Marx's vision of the increasing misery of the proletariat, but also Vefolen's vision of the pinched classes desperately sedang on small incomes to manifest pecuniary respectability . . ." (2). Changes have occurred in the growth of leisure in keeping witii the population and economy, but that for Veblea was not * An eiriier draft of tliu paper iras pr««eiited at tlie Americaa Socidogical Astocia- tion meetiag. New Yatk, 197J. Partul support for this raeardi came firon the U.S. Department of Interior, Natkuial Park Service.
  • 2. 382 American foutnd of Economics and Sociology the issue (3). The problem was one of status and how leisure controlled inequality between the classes. I PROBLEMS THE SOCIAL PROCESS controlling a display of conspicuous consumption and leisure had been specified by Veblen as developing from a primitive state of personal indulgence to that of vicarious indulgence through others. The indulgence of wealth requires a wastefid exhibition. The most presdgeful waste is acquired through an indulgence of time. The property of time is converted to nonproductive or pseudo productive pursuits as in leisure. Prestige is then acquired by turning potentially productive time into free time, and indulging excessively in its use. So few could apparently indulge the luxury, according to Veblen, that they naturally became models of emulation and stood at the head of the social structure in point of reputabil- ity. Diffusion of influence down the social strata from a homophilious position by the upper class was simply a result of that strata achieving a "norm of reputability for the community." The root source of differentia- tion for Veblen, leading to comparative inequality among strata, was based on wealth and the control of wealth and as happened to Karl Marx, accusa- tions were levied against Veblen of offering a monistic-simplistic explana- tion on the basis of statements taken out of context (4). There is equally no misjudging the purpose for which wealth was in- tended. That "the basis of which good repute in any hi^ly organized industrial community ultimately rests in pecuniary strength; and the means of pecuniary strength, and so gaining or retaining a good name, are leisure and a conspicuous consumption of goods" (5). Domination of style by the upper leisure class is contrasted to the absence of that style in the lower class. The resulting stratification of society is accomplished through the percqjtion of conspicuous consumption where the upper class displays lavish leisure symbols which cause the lower classes to make 'invidious comparisons.' The leisured were to be envied and emulated since they both wasted time and spent wealth to prove their position. Class distinction meant for Vd:)len the personal experience of being denied a leisure-class style. He did not recognize the possibility of distinct class styles resulting from the struggle to cJjtain income, education, and a prestigious occupation. Emphasis was rather placed upon the perception of wealth and its display. Leisure was symbolically the turning point around which the perception of class revolved. One gete the impression from reading VdDlan th^ the
  • 3. Class and Status, 1929-1960 383 upper class, almost exclusively, possessed leisure while not much leisure was available to the lower classes. Yet the haute decolletage leisure of the elite, real for a time in the late 1800s when Veblen was writing, quickly fell out of fashion and became disaedited (6). This historical fact does not necessarily imply that leisure, too, was lost as an element of status dif- ferentiation among the classes. Veblen could not be literally believed since evidence has proved history wrong that distinct leisure styles emerged for America's differential social classes (7). An objective definition of class, based not upon perception of inequality but upon patterns of educa- tion, occupation, and income that are unequally distributed throughout American society, differentiates leisure styles. In either case, the role of leisure continues to play a symbolic function in that some classes express a greater preference for one kind of activitiy, and not for others. Rather than just representing a dominant style as Veblen would have it, leisure distinguishes among varied class strata. Numerous studies of an empirical orientation have documented the class-leisure relationship (8), but these studies, also like Veblen's, do not att^npt any determination of specific economic changes which affect the availability of leisure. Most of these inquiries began with a preconceived stratified system of wealth or income. They rarely evaluated changes in economic conditions, changes affecting how wealth is translated into leisure. If we are to assume, like Veblen, that displays of leisure symbolize one's status, under what economic conditions would a display of leisure accen- tuate status gain ? Further, if we are to accept, unlike Veblen, the fact that various classes are pattemed after particular leisure styles, under what kinds of economic conditions would a social class evince greater interest in leisure? An approach to both these questions can be made simulta- neously from an understanding of basic status processes. Leisure behavior allows for exclusivity and waste that can be used to control status recognition. Permitting voluntaristic discretion and the ability to be different is part of leisure behavior as is the possibility of waste beyond necessity. Both waste and exclusivity in leisure should be heightened during a downturn in economic conditions when r«ources are made scarce. Recognition of leisure is heightened when resources are scarce because fewer individuals have access to them, and those that do become the exclusive. The wasting of resources on leisure is likewise heightened when resources are scarce since many more of society's members have to be intent on obtaining their necessities. While Veblen's argument contains serious flaws, his belief that the upper class possesses a superior
  • 4. 384 American Journal of Economics and Sociology advantage in asserting a right to leisure may not be totally unreasonable. In this respect, it may be very appropriate to hypothesize that the upper classes will possess an interest in leisure when economic resources are scarcest, (faerdsy increasing their status recognition. The lower middle classes are hypothesized as taking leisure during favorable economic cycles which make leisure more available, thereby reducing their possibility of gaining status recognition. Shifting economic changes within the structure of society affecting class leisure interests must first be identified to test these hypotheses. The availability of such records relevant to employment, cost and worktime in the United States are limited and more likely available and accessible beginning with the 1930s. Prior to that time, the reliability of economic indicators is questionable when they are available on an annual basis. G)n- sequently, the problem of testing the implications of Veblen's theory within a longitudinal design requires a twofold solution: that of first devising a reliable record of leisure in relation to class; and second, relating that rec- ord to the economic structure in order tD determine possible effects of worktime, employment and costs. n VARIABLES Dependent. A measure of leisure interest during die years 1929-1960 was developed for each of two distinctive social strata by using the tech- nique of content analysis. Information reflecting leisure interest was ob- tained from four popular magazines, two of which consistently have been read by the upper and middle classes and two of which have been read by the lower middle class (9). These social class types are derived from a model synthesized by G>leman and Neugarten, who reviewed the bulk of empirical sociological studies focusing on social class from 1920 to I960 (10). In coding the content of the magazines. Max Kaplan's system of classi- fication of four leisure types was utilized to represent leisure interest (11) but modified to include the arts, both the "fine" and "popular" varieties; sport, consisting of spectator and participatory kinds; mobility, designating travel activities; immobility, denoting activities of restricted kinesic and social inter^on of which reading and reclining are examples. Coding began in 1929 and every issue of the four representative magazines was aided throu^ I960. Leisure interest was operationalized by establishing a standardized rate for articles appearing in any of the four types over articles appearing in any other sdDJect category.
  • 5. Class and Status, 1929-1960 385 Two additional categories of Kaplan, association and sociability, ap- peared too infrequently to be of any use in calculating a rate of leisure interest. Not because visiting, entertaining, and participation in voluntary organizations are not done, but rather because they tend to make poor fare for national magazines. Although other gatekeeping reasons are surely operating, too few cases on associations and sociability are available to justify giving them a place in the final analysis. The activities of art, sport, mobility, and immobility indicative of leisure interest provided the basis of a series covering a thirty-year span specifying a rate for the middle class. The coding of magazine content was based upon the commonly held assiimption that the media appeal to the interests or preferences of a reader, that is, reinforces the status quo of the readership audience. That coding is essential to the interpretation of the data (12). The four types of leisure activities have been collapsed into a single depen- dent variable in order to obtain a single measure of leisure interest by class. Leisure activities cannot be treated separately because that would not reflect a class's total rate of interest in leisure. Various reliability checks and validity criteria were employed to assess the accuracy of the data (13). The results were favorably measured so that a record of leisure interest by class was generated for that period. The next step involved selecting in- dependent variables of theoretical substance which were likely to have direct or indirect effects on the class-leisure series. Independent. The prc^lem of series availability was unavoidable. The most applicable series from a theoretical standpoint were again either in- complete, questionable, or totally lacking. Yet given this situation, eco- nomic series were available that could be used in a predictive scheme. Taken together, these variables were conceived as comprising economic shifts in the direction of sodety which either expand or constrict leisure opportunities by class. A body of research on leisure has continually ac- knowledged the influence of woric and time on leisure (14), while eco- nomic analyses have identified rost and expenditure influences (15). For these reasons, time series were chosen to measure the work, time, and ex- penditure influences. The indicators were also selected because they rep- resented economic influences not directly applicable to members of any particular class. An indicator of labor force employment was chosen to represent worit involvement. The series measures the rats of unemployment reflecting either a positive ot negative labor climate (16). A second indicator mea- sures the amount of hours worked in nonagricultural enterprises. Like employment, v/hidx h iiMtfumental for acquiring status and wealth, work-
  • 6. 386 American journd oj Economics and Sociology time too produces the tangible effects of income ^hsxi coupled with wage rate (17). While high employment rates and wages perhaps accelerate opportunities for leisure participation, lengthy work hours and unemploy- ment are likely to inhibit such growth. Another set of factors, more directly involved in leisure opportunity are cost and debt incursion. A leisure price index developed by Owen (18) on the basis of expenditure or cost was adopted (19). Increasing expenditures are frequently assumed to demonstrate growth in leisure "which has grown more rapidly than the national economy in the 1900 to 1961 period" (20). The leisure expenditure series is thought to have a positive impact upon leisure class opportunities relative to socioeconomic status (21). Individual debt was chosen because middle income groups, as opposed to lower or higher income groups, incur proportionately larger liabilities, thereby demonstrating a favorable growth climate which might reasonably be suited to a higher rate of leisure interest (22). Indicators like educational enrollment could have been selected given traditional class arguments, but they either lacked sufficient controls or were simply unavailable annually for the time period covered. Measures like Gross National Product, while available, are such gross indicators that the risk of multicollinearity with other series is so great they were avoided. Indicators were also selected because they represent economic influences most directly pertinent for individual action. In any case, most economic series will have some degree of intercorrelation, but that is simply un- avoidable. Because intercorrelations are always possible, series have to be chosen for their distinctiveness. No matter what the final selection may be, some degree of intercorrelation will remain. Thus, the researcher must sift down a potential set of indicators to at most one or two best predictors of economic shifts. Those measures of time, employment, personal debt, and cost actually adopted for inclusion were decidedly better in terms of the above considerations. To determine the best predictors a multiple step- wise regression model will be followed in the analysis. HI METHODS AND FINDINGS TIME, EMPLOYMENT, personal debt, and cost series were hypothesized to be central in the class-leisure outcome. But in order to measure the relative effects of these series, a number of intermediate steps were necessary to guarantee that the independent variables were not invalidated by violating assumptions related to the least squares regression model. To ensure that the independent variables incorporated in the respective
  • 7. Class and Status, 1929-1960 387 models were free from the problems associated with multicollinearity, the standard errore associated with the regression coefficients were closely ex- amined and have been presented in Table 1 (23). A second consideration, that associated with auto-regressive disturbances, is crucial. Time series data, especially economic indices, invariably exhibit positive serial correlatcm as a function of how they are generated. "Eco- nomic growth and business cycles are the principle reason for this," Fox says (24). Rather than measuring the singular effect of an independent variable, it is quite likely that multiple effects are being generated by a single series. This is especially true as concerns the typical business cycle which lasts from three to five years. A final problem, not unrelated to the business cycle, is making allowance for "secular trend" which if not controlled creates unrealistlcaUy high cor- relation coefficients as a result of lengthy time sequences. Elimination of these corrupting influences which contribute to auto-correlation is possible by transforming the original data. First differences, moving averages, and parabola trend adjustments are commonly applied techniques (25). In this analysis, a moving average approach was applied to the time series. The unit of analysis thus became the absolute deviation from a five-year moving average. While this method has worked adequately In the past, there is no reason to assume that it will automatically reduce serial correla- tion. As a way of checking, a Durban Watson test-statistic was applied to the data (26). The test results as expected fell within an acceptable range. Finally, the assumption of linearity was met in that no serious de- viations occurred within the series. The results of our findings were confined to five independent variables: Per cent unemployment rate, real hourly wage rate, recreation price, indi- vidual debt, and average hours woriced per week by private, nonagricul- tural wage and salary workers in the United States. Variables that were eliminated from consideration after testing also related to measures of em- ployment, time, and cost, but theoretically and empirically were not un- biased estimators (27). The relative and total predictive influence of these five independent variables was analyzed and found to predict dif- ferences of leisure interest betweKi the social classes. When interpreting the findings in Table 1, one must always be conscious of the fact that the focus is upon a cycle of perhaps no more than three years, within of course, a thirty-year period. Within this perspective of limited duration, cyclical fluctuations are able to be judged for their im- mediate impact on leisure. Table 1 indicates that hours worked per week exhibits a modest positive
  • 8. 388 American Journal of Economics and Sociology relationship with leisure rates for all classes. Although many leisure pro- ponents argue that a reduction in hours woriced necrasajily leads to in- creased leisure, the results belie their contentions and reveal that when short-term fluctuations are considered a positive relationship emerges. Further examination reveals that such a reUtionship is not unwarranted when related to past research. The greatest reduction in hours wirked occurred before 1930 and since that time the temporal gains have been less in hours worked but greater in Hrtended weekends, holidays, reduced work week, and vacation time (28). Hours worked are also related to earned income whidi in turn offers greater purchasing potential for leisure from surplus income (29). Moreover, the reduction of hours worked ZEHO-OKDER CCnUtSLATlOtl WTRIM OF Tl'K PREDICTOR VARUBLES KiO "MO DEPE^HDEtrr VARIABLIfS* 1. 2. 3. 4 . 5 . G. •7. v»tlablc Hours Uockeil Per Heck Becreatiop Prieo Bodl Haurly Hage Rate Unemiiloyiaeiit Rate .Indiviaual Debt LoweI Middle C1BS3 Leisure Intaieat UpEier and l^p^er Middle CioSE leisure Interest 1 1.000 .-.ooe -.349 -.460 .431 .228 .211 2 1,000 -.615 -.251 -.151 -.402 .589 3 l.UOO . i l l .344 .179 -.687 4 l.ogo -.377 -.092 -.087 J'.ooo ,G!7 -.173 G 1.000 -.345 7 1.000 nie aatrix values »re baw^il on aonual dita for ths years ly29-19(10 with the exception ot tht H«r y u r s (194a-1945) Hliii:ti wsre excluCted due to the extrunw fluctuations of the econoinic ocE ducin3 this does not seem to be motivated by a felt need for more leisure; rather the influence of unionism, legislation, increased hourly wage rate, automation, and faiigue, appear to be more incisive (30). Moonlighting is perhaps increased where daily woric hours are reduced. (31). Finally, hours worked may be just an artifact of how much discretion the employee has over time so that duration becomes secondary in importance to leisure if autonomy is present (32). Another independent vari^le, unemployment rate, has virtually a neg- ligible affect on the middle da^es in that increasing layoffs retrench leisure possibilities. A number of issues may be discerned given unemployment even though the correlation coefficients ate rather weak and hardly worth reference except for the fact that the short span of the time q^es covers some thirty years.
  • 9. Class and Status, 1929-1960 389 The issue of unemployment was seriously raised by Slobodin (33) as being synonymous with leisure under the condition that compensation would take place for the lack of work, a situation now achieved for many occupations within union and governmental workmen's compensation guarantees. More traditionally, however, unemployment is termed "en- forced leisure," and looked upon as having a neutralizing effect upon leisure options (34). Beside the loss of income which results from un- anployment, the abiiity to manipulate one's schedule is greatiy reduced. "Full employment gives more people a chance to get around the schedules by working at second jobs if the standard schedules are too short for them or getting away with absenteeism if they are too long" (35 ). Curtailment of autonomy, not only economically but also within the context of hours woriced, results from unemployment which affects leisure opportunities. The notion that only the worker is entitled to the reward of leisure for labor is still very much prevalent in American society. Recreational price, individual ddst, and real hourly wage rate are essen- tially die major sources of differentiation between the classes with regard to leisure. The upper and upper middle classes decidely find leisure most compelling when its costs are high and when wages in society are de- creasing. Both factors contribute to the formation of social barriers which the lower classes are unable to surmount because they rely on earned in- come and must regard cost relative to wages as a factor in their rate of leisure intere^, a finding entirely consistent with patterns of leisure life styles characterized for liiose strata. Upper class members are described as living in "great luxury for their leisure time and recreational activities have traditionally included polo, yachting, and other sports that cannot be easily imitated by those lower on the status ladder, although this pattern has been changing somewhat with the growing democratization of sports" (36). The vast middle dass or lower middle class also consistently fashions a pattern of leisure activity. "They take a two-week vacation in the country every year. They watch TV a couple of hours every evening when not at the movies or visit nei^ibors for a game of Scrabble. They read the daily newspaper, a weekly news magazine, and a monthly woman's magazine, but not many books" (37). Leisure life styles differ among strata not only in what they actively pursue, but just as decisively are effected differentially by economic conditions. Looking now to Table 2, the total amount of vatiance explained for the upper and upper middle class was about 41 per cent, while for the lower middle class explained variance was about 49 per cent. The importance of the variables in contributing to the explanation of the criterion variables
  • 10. 390 American journal oj Economics and Sociology is indicated by their respective standardi2ed beta weighte (38). The issue of multicollinearity necessitated the removal of several variables from the final models. The magnitude of the standard errors associated with those variables indicated that the associated regression coefficients were extremely unstable, unlike those presented in Table 2. The magnitude of the explained variance confirms the earlier position that leisure interest is more likely to be accelerated for the upper and upper middle class during periods of economic downturn where wage rates, either hourly or salary, are on the decline. Coupled with this phenomena is the TABLE 2 F£GPIS5tOH AHU.VSIS OP THE E£FENDEHT VARIASLES gn't Variable! Ufper and Middle Class Leisure Interest Independent Variable Zeio-pider unstdndardiied Standard StandardizatI negre'ssion Coefficient Ectai Beta Height Real Hourly Wage Rate -0.6B7 -4.53 1.16 -0.6B7 .473 Variable! Lower aid Lower Middle Class Lgisure Independent Vaitable Individual Debt ltecrea,tion Fiice Zero-Order CutrElation 0.627 -0.403 unstajidardized Fagro56ian CoefEicianc 6.27 -2.93 Etanda'cd ECtat 1,96 1.69 Standardized Beta Weight o.seo -0.314 R • .490 fact that when leisure costs are moving up, interest in leisure is also on the increase for the upper and upper middle class. If the conspicuous con- sumption hypothesis of status acquisition has any merit at all, then perhaps it acquires greater significance when resources are scarce in society. The upper and upper middle class are not solely controlled by sources of wealth related exclusively to earned income, whereas the lower middle classes, for the most part, are dependent upon earned income. The costs of leisure are also influential in determining whether the lower middle class rate of interest wanes or expands. The evidence suggests, within the limitations of the variables, that the rate of leisure interest for the lower middle class is increased by accelerating wage rates and reducing costs of leisure. Most importantly, the predominant factor of individual debt which for the mid-
  • 11. class and Status, 1929-1960 391 die income group signifies a climate of favorable growth is highly related to leisure interest for the lower middle classes and not in the least for the upper and upper middle classes. The results offer additional substantia- tion that a positive correlation exists between the size of deficit and level of leisure expenditure for an average-sized family (39). Perhaps symbols Of status identification are less a factor in explaining lower-middle class leisure styles when compared to the upper classes since only favorable con- ditions of wealth prevail when interest is high in leisure. Conditions of scarcity and inaccessibility heighten status claims, but for the lower middle class, unlike the upper and upper middle class, interest is higher when leisure is plentiful. IV CONCLUSIONS THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS of the economic institution serve to regulate leisure interests by social class. The incumbent pressures of wealth are not so uniform across class strata. If scarcity of resources gives rise to status differentiation because one class strata is able to capitalize upon that condi- tion, then leisure interests for the upper and upper middle classes seem to be so determined. The lower middle class perhaps cannot afford the lux- ury of pursuing leisure during periods of economic downturn and so pro- vide paradoxically a condition favorable to "invidious compadron" for the upper and upper middle classes. The symbolic importance of leisure is not necessarily of equal value for every social class. While many studies mentioned earlier have demon- strated that leisure activities are not alike across America's social classes, these same studies do not determine when and how status is affected. Neither does this particular study, but it does proceed a step further by showing that interest in leisure is relative to the economic situation. If leisure symbolizes exclusivity and abundance through waste as Vd^Ien would have it, then the reduced possibility of wealth will make an even greater difference. When wages are declining, for example, it would not be very prudent for a lower middle class member of society who relies largely on a salary to go on a European trip, or take out a membership in a sport club since the economic climate works against such consumption. But for the upper and upper middle class member, the economic climate for investing in leisure may be most advantageous for gaining status recog- nition when things are on the downturn. The exposure in public would be more pronounced because few individuals take part in it. Recognition would also be more salient since a wasteful display of abundance projects
  • 12. 392 American Journal of Economics and Sociology a higher contrast against a background of scarcity. Both recognition and exposure immeasurably add to status recognition. The evidence against Vdilen's idea of 'invidious comparison' based upon pecuniary emulation of the upper strata and difiusion downward cannot totally be dismissed because squash or day court tennis never got down to the working class. Placing emphasis on the leisure activity itself as being indicative of class position may not be so important as when a leisure activity is engaged in or sought after. The timing of the activities" occur- rence may be more important for gaining status recognition than trying to determine where activities are similar or different among strata. The per- ception of not being part of a dominant life style was very explicit in Vd>- Ien's conception of 'invidious comparison.' While life styles tend to vary among classes with no dominant theme, there may still be a kind of leisure class model based not on any pattern of leisure activities but based on access to them. The kind of dominance of the upper and upper middle class may be one of engaging in leisure when the lower middle class cannot afford to do so. Thus, the symbolic importance of leisure may be more important for acquiring status recognition in the upper classes. For the lower classes, leisure may have much less status merit. Conspicuous consumption never meant just the potlasb display of sym- bols. Rather it focused too On scarcity and nonproductivity. The option to waste time or resources and to be unproductive during periods of eco- nomic recession carries greater weight than when that activity is easily acces- sible during periods of abundance. Although Veblen doggedly pursued that line of reasoning, his explanations were clouded by an ideology which engulfed tiie elite leisured class. Ignoring the elitist inference, the upper strata, whether a leisured class or not, appear to be more adaptable to tak- ing their leisure during periods of economic downturn. ITie findings that were analyzed lend support to Veblen's notion of the leisured class and status recognition (40). Nation^ Park Service Scitnce Center National Space Technology Laboraiones Bay Si. Louii, Mm. 39520 and Georgia State Unlvertity Atlanta, Ga. 3030} 1. Thorstein Vebloa, The Theory of the Leiiure Class (New York: Macnjillan, 1899), p. J4. 2. David Reiiman, "A Lecture on Veblen," JoarHid of General Education, April, 1912, p. 223. 3. George Piik, Leisure Spmding-Behavhr (Pbitaddphia: Univ. of Pennsylvania Pre«, 1963); John D. Owen, The Price of Leimre (MontMal: McGUl-Queen's Univ. Press, 1970); Tbe Conference Board, New York. 1973.
  • 13. Class and Status, 1929-1960 393 4. As an example of contextual emphasis, the following is ofieced: "But the gravest significance of this cleavage that go runs through the population of the advanced tndus' trial countries lies in the fact that it is a division between the vested interests and the conunan man. It is a division between those who control the conditions of work and the rate and volume of output and to whom the net output of industry goes as free income, on the one hand and those others who have the work to do and to whom a livelihood is allowed by these persons In control, on the other hand. In paini of num- bers it it a very uneven division, of course." Veblen, The Vested Interests and the Common Man (New York: Capricorn Books, 1319), p. 161. J. Veblen, ibid., p. 84. 6. Lloyd Morris, "The 400," In Norman P. Cantor and Michael S. Werthman, eds.. The Hhtory of Popular Culture Since I8I5 (New York: Macralllan, 1947), pp. 122-27. 7. Francis P. Noe, "Leisure Life Styles: Indicators of Social Class," unpubliihed doctoral dissertation. State Univ. of New York at Buffalo, 1972, pp. 14—18. 5. Alfred C. Clarke, "Leisure and Occupational Prestige," in Eric Larrabee and R. Meyersohn, eds., Mass Leisure (Glencoe, 111.: Free Press, 19Ifi); Robert Havighwrst and Kenneifa Feigenbaum, "Leisure and Life Styles," American Journal of Sociology, 6(January, 1959}, pp. 391—404; George Lundberg, Mirra Komaravsky and Mary Alice Mclnerney, Leisure: A Suburbm Study (1934) (New York: Agathon Press, 1969); L. C. Michelson, "The New Leisure Class," American Journal of Sodohgy, J9 (Jan- uary, 19J4), pp, 371-78; Francis P. Noe, "Autonomous Spheres of Leisure Activity for the Industrial Executive and the Blue Collarite," Journal of Leisure Research, Vol. 5, No. 4 (Fall, 1971), pp. 220-49; Qyde White, "Social Class Differences In the Use of Leisure," in Larrabee and Meyersohn, op. cil. 9. Four monthly magazines, all of which were published during the period 1929— 1960, were finally selected for analysis. The Atlanta Monthly and Harpers were choien because they were predominantly read by the upper and upper middle classes, and American and Saturday Evening Post were chosen because they were preferred by the lower middle class. "The extent of the validity of these magazines as representing a distinct class affiliation rests upon crude readership information, historical assessments, the autobiographical judgments of managing editors, periodic critiques of the magazines by the working press, a survey of circulation editors' opinions about those who read their magazines, and finally, communication content analyses carried out by social scientists at various times in the history of these magazines. See Noe, "Leisure Life Styles," Op. cit. 10. Richard Coleman and Bernice Neugarten, Social Status in the City (San Fran- cisco: Jossey, Boss, Inc., 1971), pp. 261-^3. n . Kaplan, Leisure m America: A Social Inquiry (New York: Wiley, I960). 12. MiltOQ C. Albrecht, "Does Literature Reflect Common Values?" in S. M. Lipset and N. M. Smelser, eds.. Sociology: The Progress of a Decade (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hail, Inc., 1956); Irene Traviss, "Changes in the Form of Alienation: 1900 vs. the 1950s," American Sodoiogical Review, 34 (February, 1969), pp. •46-57; George Gerbner, "Toward 'Cultural Indicators': the Analysis of Masj Mediated Public Message Systems," in Gerbner et al., eds.. The Analysis of Communication Content (New York: Wiley, 1969). 13. An inter-coder reliability check was conducted on tbe data gathering procedures. The agreement was in every case above 80 per cent. A more complete explanation of the techniques and coding procedures is available to Noe, "Leisure Life Styles," op. at. The class-leisure findings corroborated earUer cross-sectional studies that were concerned primarily with the upper and middle classes (Lundberg et al., 1934; Havighurat and Feigenbaum, 1959; Burdge, 1969; Clarke, 1956; White, 1956). (Lundberg, et al, "Ldsure," op. cit.; Havighurat and Feigenbaum, op. cit.; Rabel Burdge, "Levels of Occupational Prestige and Leisure Activity," Journal of leisure Research, 1 (1969), pp. 2«2~74.) 14. S. R. Parker, "Work and Non-Work in Three Occupations," Socioto^cal Re- view, 13(Marth, 1965), pp. 6!-75; Edwin O. Smiegel, ed.. Work «nd teisute: A Con- temporary Social Problem (New Haven, Conn.: Yale Univ. Press, 1963); Harold Wilensky, "Labor and Leisure: Intellectual Tradition," Industrial Relations, 1 (February, 1962), pp. 1-12.
  • 14. 394 American Journal of Economics and Sociology 15. Owen, op. cit.; Fisk, op. cit.; George Soule, "The Econonrucs of Leisure," An- nals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 313 (September, 1957), pp. 16-24. 16. Annual estimates of the unemployment rate were noade by the U.S. Bureau of Labor, but adjusted for 1957 changes in the Bureau's definition by Owen, op. cit., p. 99. The index for average hours worked per week by private, non-agricultural wage and salary workers in the United States is found in a variety of sources. The inclu- sion of sucb an index was suggested by the work of Owen, ibid., p. 77, who used it successfully in an economic analysis of the demand for leisure time. The index mea- sures average weekly hours worked by both salaried personnel and wage earners. 17. Hourly compensation, including various fringe benefits and cash payments, fot wage and salary employees in the private non-farm sector or the U.S. economy was subsequently "divided by an index of consumer prices to obtain real compensation per hour," ibid., p. 98. 18. Ibid., pp. 84-6. 19. A price index for leisure was adapted by Owen {ibid., p. 9J) from Department of Commerce reports. The indes measures annual expenditures for commercial recrea- tion. 20. Op. cit., p. 84. 21. Lawrence G. Thomas, "Leisure Pursuits by Socioeconomic Strata," Journal of Educational Sociology, 29 (May, 1950), pp. $67-77. 22. The net individual debt series takes into consideration short-term liabilities anaong individuals. The data pertain to outstanding debt as of the end of the calendar year. {Survey of Current Business, 1960), 23. Blalock has addressed the problem of multicoilinearity and its implications for standard error of tihe partials; see H. M. Blalock Jr., ed.. Measurement in the Social Sciences; Theories and Strategies (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1974). 24. Karl Fca, Intermediate Economic Statistics (New York: Wiley, 1968), p. 199. 21. An overview of trend adjustments is contained in an article by Silver, who actually compared the differences between various methods. No method proved su- perior to another. Silver did note that when using a moving average scheme it is ad- visable to consider the business cycle which moves on an average of a five year rate. To eliminate it as a latent correlate, a conservative approach would he to use a five year moving deviation scheme which was in fact applinJ to the various series in ques- tion. See Morris Silver, "Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, 73 (June, 1965). PP- 237-55. 26. The Durbin-NPatson statistic appears to be the most generally used test, G. Dur- bin and G. S. Watson, "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression I," Biometrika, 37(December, 19S0), pp. 410-11. A good treatment of the technique can be found in Dennis J. Aigner, Basic Econometrics (Englewood ClifEs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Inc., 1971). For the upper and upper middle class series, D-W equals 2.01, P > .01 and for the lower-middle class aeries, D-W equals 2.31, a value which falls in tbe inconclusive range, indicating neither positive nor negative autoregression. 27. Two measures of Insure expenditures were so highly related that a single index, recreation price, was chosen due to conceptual and empirical overlap. This was also true for the "leisure time series" upon considering its covariation with work time. Work time rather than hours of leisure per week was utilized. 28. Peter Henle, "Recent Growth of Paid Leisure for U.S. Workers," Monthly Labor Review, 85 (March, 1962), pp. 249-57. 29. Thomas, op. cit. 30. Owen, op. cit.; Charles D. Stewart, "The Shortening Work Week » a Com- ponent of Economic Growth," American Economic Review, 46(May, 1956), pp. 211-17; H. Gregg Lewis, "Hours of Work and Hours of Leisure," Proceedings, Industrial Rela- tions Research Association, 9th annual meeting, Madison, Wis., 1957; Gary S. Becker, "A Throry of the Allocation of Time," in J. H. Burton Jr., et al., eds.. Readings m Labor Market Analysis (1965) (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1971), pp. 106-25. 31. Nelson N. Foote, "Discussion of Shortening Work Week," American Economic
  • 15. Class md Status, 1929-1960 395 Review, 46(May, 19J6), pp. 226-29; Harold 'WileiMky, "The Moonlighter," Industrial Relations, J (October, J96J), pp. 105-24. 32. Noe, "Autonomous Spheres . . . ," op. cit. 33. H. L. Slobodin, "Unemployment or Leisure, 'Which?" American Federationist, 37(1930), pp. 12OJ-08. 34. A. D. Lindsay, "Unemployment: The Meanwhile Prdslem," Contemporary Re- view, 143(1933), pp. 687-95. 3 J. Clark Kerr, "Discussion of the Shortening Work Week," op. cit., p. 222. 36. Kurt Mayer and 'Walter Buckley, Class and Society (New York; Random House, 1969), p. 9J. 37. Joseph Kahl, The American Class Structure (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961), p. 109. 38. Quion McNemar, Psychological Statistics, 3d ed., (New York: Wiley, 1962). 39. Fisk, op. dt., p. 100. 40. See also J. B. Cullingworth, "Planning for Leisure," Urhan Studies, 1 (May, 1964), p. 17; Mirjorie N. Donald and Rt^rt J. Havighurst, "The Meanings of Lri- sure," Socid/ Forces, 37(May, I9i9), p. 3J6; Eric Dunning, "The Spare Time Spec- trum," unpublished paper, Univ. of Leicester, England, p. S6; Rolf MeyerstAn, "Tele- vision and the Rest of Leisure," Public Opinion Quarterly, 32 (Spring, 1968), pp. 102-12; Wilbert Ellis Moore, Mim, Time and Society (New York: Wiley, 196J); Mar- tin Neumeyer, "Tlie New Leisure and Social Objectives" Sociology and Social Research, 20(1936), p. 348; S. R. Parker, The Future of Work and Leisure (New York: Praeger, 1971); Leonard Reisiman, "Class, Leisure and Social Participation," American Socio- logical Keview, 19(1914), pp. 79-80. Japan Acts to Control Urban Growtfj IN TOKYO, KAWASAKI, AND YOKOHAMA, there are trees that grow and shed theic leaves four times a year, apparently due to the increased fumes of car exhausts. Birds that have not fled to purer dimes or perished from insecticide poisoning have been found to have asthma and bronchitis. Certain rare and some common species of insects are rapidly disappearing due to urhanization and indiscriminate use of insecticides. In Japan, a country known for its reverence of natural beauty, from the perfection of a single flower in a vase to the majesty of a snow-capped mountain land- scape, nature is not only tragically out of balance; it has been crushed almost out of existence. The government is aware, as is private industry, of the growing im- patience of the Japanese citizenry with the sad state of the country's envi- ronment and the resultant effects on their standard of living. The forma- tion of citi2en groups and organization of boycotts and picket lines have forced both government and industry to act with increasing speed in deal- ing with pollution problems. Private legal suits against government and large industrial completes are common today in a country where such actions would have been undiinkable a few decades ago. Japanese in all
  • 16. 396 American journal of Economics and Sociology walks of life, aware that their daily comfort aad future well-being are at stake, have shown themselves -willing to break centuries of traditional acceptance of authority to demand a reversal of present trends. The Japanese Government has plans for decentralization of industry, which include relocation of factories from urban to rural districts and an extensive hig^ speed rail transport s]retem that will serve |M:oposed new cities of 250,000 population. Official efforts to reverse rural-urban migra- tion may -well be helped by eflforts on the part of the Japanese themselves to achieve a more equable distribution of population throughout the country. While satellite cities continue to expand rapidly, the largest cities of Tokyo and Osaka have stopped growing, and Nagoya and Kyoto have shown declining rates of increase. The fastest growth rates for urban entities have been evidenced in medium-sized cities of between 200,000 and 299,000 persons and smaller-sized cities of 100,000 to 199.000. The fact that these cities gained population even in regions and prefectures that showed an over-all loss in growth indicates that there is a trend to- ward a more localized migration. In addition, the rate of population loss from rural regions to metropolitan areas has decreased, and return migra- tion in, for example, the Tohoku region (northeast Japan) was 62 per cent higher in 1968 dian in 196I. If the present trends towards reverse migration are borne out, the govern- ment's efforts to relocate and build new industry in the less urban areas will be made easier. Public reaction to the Government Plan has been generally favorable, but the Japanese people have shown by their spirited opposition to continued pollution of their limited environment that their acceptance of any plans for further economic development is contingent upon how far and how fast the government is willing to go in following through on its antipollution pledges. POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Wmbmgttm, D. C. 20036