Essay On Rain Prediction

Essay On Rain Prediction
Fuzzy logic techniques for prediction of rainfall Rainfall is a stochastic process that depends on
temperature, humidity and winds. To obtain accurate rainfall prediction the above said factors
should be well maintained and controlled. For this purpose a number of methods have been
proposed. Fuzzy inference is used for mapping I/P and O/P sets with a set of fuzzy rules. Fuzzy
inference is performed in four steps fuzzification, rule evaluation, aggregation of rule outputs and
then defuzzificztion. Fuzzy rule based model provides ductility in modeling the blurred relationship
between input and output variables. Data mining techniques Data ... Show more content on
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Works done using clustering techniques Clustering is a process in which cluster of homogenous
objects are made on the basis of their similarity in logic and characteristics. Clustering methods
involve partitioning methods, hierarchical agglomerative methods, the single link method (SLINK),
the complete link method (CLINK), the group average method, and text based documents. This part
of paper highlights works related to clustering techniques carried for weather forecasting in past:
Kavita.P et al. used weather data set of Bangladesh to present a model for predicting the weather
using K– means clustering by analyzing temperature at atmospheric pressures with 400 hpa, 500
hpa, and 700 hpa. Badhiye S.S.et al. provided an approach using clustering techniques for future
prediction of temperature and humidity. The clustering analysis was used to partition data by taking
the similarity of objects into consideration. K–Nearest Neighbor algorithm was used. Absolute
distance and Euclidean distance measuring was used to obtain distances between datasets in K–
Nearest Neighbor algorithm. Sanjay Chakarborty et al. proposed a methodology for time series
forecasting through clustering. Incremental K– means clustering was used for this methodology. Air
pollution data was collected from "West Bengal air pollution control
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Forecasting Methodology
Forecasting Methodology
Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the
company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts.
Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision.
Forecasting, according to Armstrong (2001), is the basis of corporate long–run planning. Many
times, this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline, but also to offer a prediction into
the corporation 's future. In the functional areas of finance and accounting, forecasts provide the
basis for budgetary planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan new
products, compensate sales personnel, and ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Causal tries to understand the system underlying and surrounding the item being forecast. Under
Causal type there are Regression analysis, Econometric models and Leading indicators. Starting
with Regression analysis, similar to least squares method in time series but may contain multiple
variables, basis is that forecast is caused by the occurrence of other events. Econometric models the
forecast attempts to describe some sector of the economy by a series of interdependent equations.
An input/Output model focuses on sales of each industry to other firms and governments; it
indicates the changes in sales that a producer industry might expect because of purchasing changes
by another industry. Leading Indicators type are statistics moving in the same direction as the series
being forecast but move before the series, such as an increase in the price of gasoline indicating a
future drop in the sale of large cars.
Simulation Models are dynamic models; Dynamic modeling in organizations is the collective ability
to understand the implications of change over time. This skill lies at the heart of successful strategic
decision process. The availability of effective visual modeling and simulation enables the analyst
and the decision–maker to boost their dynamic decision by rehearsing strategy to avoid hidden
pitfalls.
Global Insight is a privately held company formed from the two most respected

The Four P's of Marketing
The Four P's of Marketing
The Four P's of Marketing The first P that the paper will address is Product. Professionals,
researchers, and students of marketing must understand the importance of crafting the right product
to satisfy the needs of the intended consumer. This P has a lot to do with the product, from design to
production to distribution. This P also has a great deal to do with the consumer. Professionals and
organizations of marketing must know the target consumer very well. When the marketing
professional or marketing firms has an extremely clear concept of the intended consumer, they will
be in a strategically stronger position to introduce a new product or service. (Ehmke et al, 2005) The
next P of marketing the paper shall address is price. Successful marketing includes marketing the
right product to the right audience at the right price. If the marketing professional knows the target
consumer very well, then he/she will be in a strong position to predict and assign a price to such a
product. Knowing the target demographic for a new product must include financial and class
information as people of different classes have different tastes, different needs, different aesthetic
preferences, and different kinds of access to products. (Vargo & Lusch, 2004) The third P in the four
P's of marketing is Place. The right product for the right customer at the right price must be located
at the right location. All of the P's are contingent on the amount and quality

Applying Personal Managerial Accounting Problems
Applying Work Experience to My Courses
Oluyemisi Banwo
Sullivan University
MGT 596/597/696/697: Graduate Externship Class
November 9, 2015
Courses I am Taking This Quarter
Currently I am taking two non–externship classes. They are:
1. ACT510Z–AGAC02S–01–Accounting Theory for Management Decisions, by Dr. Miller which is
a hybrid class; and
2. FIN540X–A1–07–Managerial Finance by Dr. Anne which is a fully online class
Outcomes from my first course ACT510Z to My Workplace
The course outcomes for the ACT510Z–AGAC02S–01–Accounting Theory for Management
Decisions – by Dr. Miller (Sullivan University, 2015a, P1) are:
Solve various managerial accounting problems
Utilize critical thinking skills in addressing various managerial ... Show more content on
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This and many more are items we put into consideration.
I am applying lessons learned from this course to think critical before making a decision, if a
contarct with a client would be profitable or not.
3. Apply various communication skills in addressing managerial accounting issues, including ethical
decision making.
Having a good communication skill is very important in the course of my job especially as a
foreigner. I take particular attention to details when sending emails to clients and ensure I am being
understood clearly with my accent.
I am applying various lessons I have learnt from this course to project about to information, such as
with the use of power point presentation or various excel reports.
Outcomes from my second course FIN540X to My Workplace
The course outcomes for the FIN540X–A1–07–Managerial Finance by Dr. Anne (Sullivan
University, 2015b, p1) are:
Determine the value of assets and securities using discounted cash flow techniques
Measure risk and factor it into asset valuation
Determine how the firm should finance its fixed assets
Calculate option values for simple financial options
Use option pricing models to value options embodied in capital investments

1. Determine the value of assets and securities using discounted cash flow techniques.
A discounted cash flow method commonly used is NPV. It is simple and considers cash flows but it
fails

Cost Benefit Analysis ( Cba )
1. Introduction
In the recent years, Cost benefit Analysis (CBA) has been connected to different ranges of strategies
and tasks. Indeed, with research of CBA was conducted into two wide areas of work. One area
which undertaken to defined the technical–economic reasons for supporting CBA and then again
there are studies which completes empirical evaluations over the performance of test of CBA.
For every business and IT that has developed projects, they have to make good decision on whether
the projects will have costs and benefits and to determine it is important to supplement such as cost
effectiveness analysis with CBA tool to help with strategy deciding. Pearce et al (2006), CBA is a
tools that business analysts use to figure out if ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
According to Bhatt et al, (2010 in Dehning 2002, Davis & Stratopoulos, 2003) mentions that
analysts in the IT field contend that a model may not be specifically pertinent to IT expenses which
can be mean that the reappearance from IT costs is difficult to measure which makes it more hard to
figure it out ROI or comparable models for IT expenses.
2. Cost Benefit Analysis
Cost benefit analysis has been around for many years while serving a great purpose to any business
or IT due its wide range of innovative strategies. According to Levin and McEwan (2001, p.14) Cost
benefit analysis is a tool that evaluates to the assessment of choices as indicated by their costs and
benefits when each is measured in economic terms. However Prest and Turvey defined cost benefit
analysis as a "practical way of assessing the desirability of projects, where it is important to take a
long view (in sense of looking at repercussions in the further, as well as the nearer, future) and a
wide view (in the sense of allowing for side–effects of many kinds of many persons, industries,
regions, etc.) i.e it implies the enumerations and evaluation of all the relevant costs and benefits".
The aim of CBA is to put a monetary values on the benefit anticipated from the project and
difference the costs which are relied upon to

Quality Improvement
Quality Improvement
Jolene Williams
University of Phoenix
Quality Improvement The equipment department of Washington Group International has a large task
of purchasing, maintaining, tracking, transporting and selling of all large company equipment of
more than $5,000. While all of these processes are manual intensive and can be improved upon, this
paper will address the maintenance process. Included with a "As–Is" flow chart will be a process
relationship, customer impact, key items to be monitored, helpful quality management tools, and
opportunities for improvement. Finally, proposed improvements, level of improvement, and
relevance to UOP simulation will be discussed.
Description
Currently, the maintenance process of ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This will lead to a decreased down time of equipment.
Quality Management Tool Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) would be a good tool for
collecting and presenting data on this process. An FMEA is a process that helps to identify the
possible failure modes of a process or product. This determines the effect on related sub–items and
on the function of the product or process (Enterprise Solutions Competency Center, 2006).
Improvement Opportunities An FMEA would show how all the pieces of the process effects the
other pieces of the process. The analysis would show how the data tracking of the meter readings
would benefit the maintenance process and allow for predictive measures and forecasting. The
tracking of the meter readings allows for a predictive maintenance schedule to be produced and
followed. Once on a predictive maintenance schedule, equipment is taken care of and remains in
operating condition. A maintenance schedule also helps to retain the resale value of equipment. By
having a predictive mode and forecasting repairs, much last minute scrambling and money will be
saved.
Proposed Improvements The new process would go as follows.
• Meter readings are to be taken at the end of each shift and turned in to the office clerk.
• Office clerk is to compile all readings and fax or email daily to the equipment department for data
entry and tracking.
• Database will track and set up

Essay on Supply Chain---Tingtao Beer
SUPPLY CHAIN CASE STUDY–
TSINGTAO BREWERY
Course Code: OMGT 1021
Course Name: Supply Chain Principles
Students:
Date of Submission: 13/10/2006
TABLE OF CONTENT
Executive Summary 4
1. Introduction 6
1.1 Investigation 6
1.2 Objectives 6
1.3 Assumptions 7
1.4 Scope 7
2. Current Situation 8
2.1 Tsingtao brewery–marketing and business strategy 8
2.2 Tsingtao brewery–supply chain policy and strategy 9
2.3Tsingtao brewery–supply chain management....................................................11
3. IssuesIdentified 12
3.1 Distribution network 12
3.2 Information flow 13
3.3 Inventory level 14
4. Analyses 15
4.1 SWOT Analyses–––the current situation of Tsingtao beer supply chain 15
4.1.1 Strengths: 15
4.1.2 Weaknesses: 15
4.1.3 Opportunities: 16 ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
1.3 Assumptions
It is assumed that the logistics strategies outlined in this report would apply to any divisions in
Tsingtao Brewery. As such, it is also assumed that other divisions run very similar supply chain
management systems to that of South China Sales Company. The final assumption is that investment
by the Tsingtao Group in the supply chain is a very manageable investment for them.
1.4 Scope

The scope of this investigation is limited to a pure academic exercise of Supply Chain Analysis in a
real world situation. Even though, the study aims to provide insight on how to improve Tsingtao's
Supply Chain. The report is also limited to a specific division in South China. This method was
chosen to enable detailed analysis of a current supply chain in action. Moreover, anglicizing on the
Tsingtao's supply chain in general would be too complex, and therefore not generate meaningful
outcomes or strategies. In addition, the availability of information limits the study to a suggestion of
a series of broader initiatives.
2. Current Situation
2.1 Tsingtao Brewery–marketing and business strategy
China has become the second beer market in the world today. Tsingtao Brewery is the top beer
manufacturer in China. The Tsingtao Brewery was founded in 1903 by German settlers in Qingdao,
China.

Revenue Management
Vol. 9, No. 3, May 2009, pp. 135–139 issn 1532–0545 09 0903 0135 informs ® Additional
information, including supplemental material and rights and permission policies, is available at
http://ite.pubs.informs.org. I N F O R M S Transactions on Education doi 10.1287/ited.1090.0033ca
© 2009 INFORMS Case Article Introductory Integrative Cases on Airline Revenue Management
Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755,
robert.shumsky@dartmouth.edu Robert A. Shumsky T his case article summarizes two case series.
Each case series includes three subcases and has an associated teaching note. These six short cases
introduce many of the concepts that underlie the practice of airline revenue ... Show more content on
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Although the case templates and solutions are built with the simulation package Crystal Ball,
another simulation package or the spreadsheet's builtin random number generator may be used.
Likewise, to use Network Revenue Management (A)–(C), the students must already be familiar with
optimization. Although the case solution is built with Solver, other optimization packages may be
used. The cases require basic spreadsheet modeling augmented with spreadsheet add–ins. Table 3
lists the required add–ins as well as optional software tools. We have used Crystal Ball for Monte
Carlo simulation (Oracle 2009), Solver for optimization (Frontline 2009), and the Sensitivity Toolkit
for simulation and optimization sensitivity analysis (Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth 2009).
The optional tools listed in the fourth column of Table 3 make solving the problems easier, e.g., by
speeding up the search for an optimal protection level. All of the cases, however, can be used
without the optional tools. 3. What Is New in These Cases and What Is Not? 2. Where Can These
Cases Be Used? BlueSky Airlines: Single–Leg Revenue Management (A) has been used in a
number of MBA introductory operations management classes. All three single–leg cases have been
used in an MBA service operations management elective. The three network cases have been used in
an MBA core decision science class. In general, the cases are appropriate for introductory MBA
classes in operations management,

Value Line
VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, OCTOBER 2002 Teaching Note This case follows the performance–
review and financial–statement–forecasting decisions of a Value Line analyst for the retail–
building–supply industry in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong operating performance of
Home Depot with the strong stock–market performance of Lowe's. Students examine a financial–
ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to generate a comparable ratio analysis for
Lowe's. The students' ratio analysis is designed to build intuition with respect to interpreting
individual ratios as well as ratio inter–relationships (e.g., the DuPont framework). The historical–
performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the ability of ... Show more content
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On the chalkboard, the students can fill out the following analysis, highlighting how the assumptions
must vary to reduce 2002 ROC to the WACC of 12.3 percent. The discussion should highlight that
ROC can be reduced through a decrease in NOPAT of $707 million or an increase in capital of
$5,746 million. It is no surprise that the required increase in cash operating expenses/sales equals
the required decrease in gross margin as both changes decrease NOPAT by the same amount. The
discussion should also emphasize how the different asset accounts affect total capital differently.
The P&E turnover is particularly important, while the receivable–turnover figure has little impact. |
|ROC = 15.1% |ROC = 12.3% | |Gross margin |32% |30.2% | |Cash operating exp./sales |21% |22.8%
| |Receivable turnover |55× |9.3× | |Inventory turnover |5.3× |3.1× | |P&E

Global Wine War 2009: New World vs. Old World Competitors
Global Wine War 2009: New World versus Old
1.Discuss critically the competitive advantages of New World wine producers and contrast these
against their Old World competitors.
The New World wine producers including Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and the United
States have several strategic advantages over their Old World competitors. Most significant is how
each of the wine producers in New World competitive economies are free to innovate, creating
disruption and value creation that are redefining centuries–old processes. In the best–selling book
The Innovator's Dilemma (Christensen, 2007) Dr. Clayton Christensen of Harvard University
discusses how new market entrants, unencumbered by decades or in some cases centuries of
government intervention and high cost structures, can quickly overtake a market and establish
market dominance. The role of disruptive innovation in redefining value chains is a core message of
his research and book (Christensen, 2007). This is exactly the same dynamic occurring between the
New World and Old World wine producers. At the center of the New World win producing nations'
competitive advantage is the freedom and immediate economic benefits of innovation.
The scope of the innovation expertise that New World wine producers have is value–chain wide in
scope, and in–depth enough to completely re–order manufacturing, fermentation, distribution
channel, pricing, marketing and customer service (Cholette, 2009). New World wine producers

Global Supply Chain Management And Its Application Within...
Introduction/Forward This term paper focus on my experience and the knowledge gain during the
fall 2016 semesters. The paper discusses the general topic on Global supply chain management and
its application within the business sector. In addition, to the general topic discussed, I would also
focus on the some of my experience doing the class and how those experience and knowledge
gained can help me in the future. In my further reflection of the paper I had focused on some topics
that I found easier to complete and other topics that did challenge me. My reason of giving a
reflection on those topics that were challenging and those that was easier for me, is to give a balance
of my experience of the class and lesson learn doing the semesters. To recap, on the course I would
say, the course was great and comprehensive in general. Over the few months getting to study and
understand topics such as, the field of operation and management, Product & process Design, six
sigma Quality and SQC, Strategic Capacity Management, Forecasting system, Facility Layout, Sales
and operation planning, Inventory Management, Material Requirement Planning, WorkCentre
Scheduling and Waiting and Simulation was a mind changing for me.
The study field of Operation Management, strongly give me an understanding of how operation
management can best be used to help design, improve and operate an organization system that
deliver the best output for creating

Jos. Schlitz Brewing Company Winston
Table of content
Introduction 3
Company profile 4
Specific operating information 8
Process management 8
Quality 8
Forecasting 9
Capacity 9
Inventory 10
Scheduling 10
Recommendations 12
Recommendations of inventory 12
Recommendations of forecasting 12
Conclusion 15
Reference 16
Introduction
This report is based on the plant information of Jos. Schlitz Brewing Company's sixth brewery,
which located near Winston– Salem, North Carolina. The purpose of this report is to show the
brewery's operation management, analysis and critique the plans and actions of the organization, and

point out some disadvantages in the operating.
The following report is to introduce the brewery's profile and production process, which include
brewing ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Fermentation is undoubtedly the most important stage to achieve the taste of the beer, because while
sugar transformation into alcohol and carbonic gas takes place, yeast produces other substances in
very small quantities, which are responsible for the aroma and flavor of the beer. The development
of chemical analysis procedures that took place during recent years allowed a more comprehensive
understanding about beer composition. It is therefore during the fermentation process that the beer
style is created. This process normally will take a month.
These two steps are shown by figure 1.
Figure 1
The packaging process occurs after the fermentation. The beer flows to the keg, canning, and
bottling lines when it our of the government cellar. There are five canning lines, three bottling lines,
and a keg line can be run in the Winston– Salem brewery. The capacity for can lines is 1300 cans per
minute, for bottle lines is 900 bottles per minute, and for keg line is 340 half– barrels per hour. For
the five can lines, all the brands of beer can be canned at the same time, or one brand of beer can be
canned with two different types at the same time. For three bottle lines, different bottle shapes and
sizes can be filled at the same time, and new bottles and returnable bottles can be separated when
filling and packaging. The packaging process also can be divided into two steps: 1. filling and
capping and 2. pasteurizing. The packaging will

Supply Chain Strategy Essay
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 1 2. MISSION OF THE COMPANY: 2 3.
SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL OF SCHNEIDER: 3 4. PROCESSES AT SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC: 5 5.
PURCHASING OR PROCUREMENT: 7 6. MANUFACTURING OR PRODUCTION: 7 7.
INVENTORY MANAGEMENT: 8 8. DISTRIBUTION: 9 9. MODES OF TRANSPORTATION: 9
10. STRUCTURE SHARED BY SCHNIEDER WITH SUPPLIERS: 10 11. TERMS AND
CONDITIONS TO OPTIMIZE CAPABILITIES IN SUPPLY CHAIN PROCESS: 11 12.
STRATEGIES EMPLOYED FOR AN EFFECTIVE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL: 12 13. EXISTING
PROBLEMS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE CURRENT PROCESSES AND ADDITIONAL
CAPABILITIES NEEDED TO BE DEVELOPED: 14 14. PROCESS RESTRUCTURING AND
CHANGE MANAGEMENT: 15 15. REFERENCES 16 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Schneider
Electric, a global company of French origin was founded in 1836.It specializes in energy
management. The company's believes in having a strategic purchasing strategy and because of that
they have more than 100 brands .These brands have built the groundwork for the energy
management solution in which they excel. It is one of the most leading energy experts in many
fields. They have with more than 120,000 employees working for them and they are spread over 100
countries and have a sale of 19.6 billion euros in (2010) in over 200 countries. The company was
among the 330 biggest companies in the world on 2011 Fortune Global 500 annual rankings of the
world's largest corporations. They have transformed from the

Zenith-case summary
Objective: analyze the case offered and answer the following questions.
Background: Zenith, a well–known electronics corporation in North America market, was facing
options regarding high definition television (HDTV), a new technology that offer consumers higher
resolution (i.e., sharper pictures) and superior digital stereo sound. The company had to forecast the
marketing perspective and deicide what ways could be used to assess consumer preferences for the
new product.
1. What factors will determine the success of HDTV?
As the next generation of TV technology, no doubt, HDTV would achieve technical mature in the
near future. But is there also a promising market in the near future? What are the determinants of
successful ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
So, my recommendation is that Zenith can use historical data as references for forecasting purpose
by analogy, but should do extra researches to revise the results by analogy.
3. What research would you conduct if you were in Zenith's position?
If I were in Zenith's position, I would prefer to conduct the following researches that seem to be the
key factors determining the success for the innovation and also to be the uncertainty reflecting risks
in the marketplace:
Market demand and growth forecasting: Zenith can't completely rely on historical data to forecast
market demand and growth. It must do extra researches to ensure a more accurate estimate for the
demand and growth model. The necessary researches should include past data analysis; current
demand estimating; future demand estimating; survey of buyer's intentions; sales forecasting; and
gathering of expert's opinions......
Price test: although HDTV manufacturers may focus mainly on middle–class as their initial target
market segment, the industry used to be price sensitive. So, a proper pricing strategy can maximize
market share, and stimulate market demand. A price test becomes necessary to help to figure out a
suitable price

Product Strategy of Usps
Product Strategy of the U. S. Postal Service
Dwaynell Lowe
Strayer University
Operations Management
Dr. Phyllis Parise
November 15, 2015
Product Life Cycle Product life cycle refers to the stages that a product. Changes in demand for the
product is the factor that delineates the changes from one cycle to another (Daft & Sanders,
2012). The typical product life cycle has four identifiable stages; * Introductory Stage–characterized
by the launching of a new product. * Growth Stage–highlighted by strong growth and profits. *
Maturity Stage–the product is well established and the organization seeks to maintain market share.
* Decline Stage–the market for the product shrinks.
The United State Postal ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
From 2007 to 2012 USPS posted net losses in excess of $41 billion with much of that driven by fuel
costs. It currently spends $3.3 billion on highway contracts, while spending only $40 million on
freight rail contracts. USPS should consider shifting part of its mail volume to rail. By making this
change it has been estimated that USPS could save at least $100 million per year. Additionally,
"because of its lesser sensitivity to fuel price increases and greater control of its own infrastructure,
rail transportation has major, long–term strategic advantages over highway" (Berman, 2012).
Total Quality Management Total Quality Management (TQM) is an organizational approach that
seeks to identify and eliminate the root causes of issues that undermine quality whether in a
manufacturing or service organization. As stated previously USPS as a product is in a state of
decline and must find ways to eliminate barriers to attaining its service commitments. Package
delivery is a sector of its market in which it has remained competitive with private carriers such as
UPS and FedEX. To continue to compete and excel in the package delivery arena USPS must insure
that it eliminates barriers to meeting and or exceeding on time delivery expectations. Therefore, I
would suggest the use of control charts to determine the cause of packages being delivered outside
the upper control limit. The upper control limit for

Sales and Operations Planing
Sales & Operation Planning
Adrian Rader
American Public University
Kristopher Bradshaw
Sales & Operation Planning Sales and operation planning sets the foundation for any successful
business. In order to succeed a company must be prepared from the beginning and set the
groundwork or procedures it will follow. From customers to sales and marketing to developing, the
sales and operations planning is designed to set up all the plans for every aspect of the business. The
process in done is phases and tasks must be done before everyone can come together at the first
meeting. Meetings must be set up well in advanced to allow everyone involved adequate time to
prepare their part of the meeting. The process has been becoming more ... Show more content on
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The Thune and Ansoff studies supported the use of long–range planning. In the Thune study, they
gathered information from "36 firms representing six industries" (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67). He
placed each of the plans from the responding firms in two different categories, formal and informal.
Five different criteria were used to measure each of the plans to determine the effectiveness. His
hypothesis was that companies who use long–range planning are more successful and he backed up
and confirmed his theory with the companies that are involved in the "drug, chemical, and
machinery industries" (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67). The Ansoff study dealt more with the
companies in manufacturing and their acquisitions. He received 93 replies in the 412 he sent out. He
used 21 different criteria in his study and found that the companies who did not plan did not have as
much success as those that did. (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67–68) Leslie Rue from Indiana
University and Robert Fulmer from Trinity University conducted their own study to see if it makes a
difference financially to do long–range planning. They also wanted to determine if it was important
to use more sophisticated techniques. They categorized the company's plans in to 4 different
categories that ranged from no plan to very detailed planning. They then placed each into their own
class of financial performance: sales growth, earning growth,

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Demand Forecasts
Demand forecasting
Abstract:
1. Identify methods useful for predicting demand in various situations
2. Warn against methods that shouldn't be used
3. Guidelines and examples to improve efficiency of other organizations that don't use these
methods by adopting these forecasting practices.
It has been recorded that formal forecasts are prepared by firms because they have a written
marketing plan, the most popular among these firms is the sales forecast. A common mistake used
by people is that sales and demand acquire the same definition while in fact, demand and sales
equate only when sales aren't limited by supply. Sometimes it is appropriate to forecast demand
directly, while other times where uncertainty and changes are expected market ... Show more
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But no research directly tests the forecasting ability of game theory.
5) Judgmental decomposition: (no feedback)
It involves dividing the forecasting problems into parts that are easier to forecast than the whole, one
approach is breaking it down into multiplicative components. It has a number of advantages as it is
used when there is much uncertainty about the aggregate forecast, when large numbers are involved
and it has proven to be more accurate than those of global approach.
6) Judgmental bootstrapping: (no feedback)
It is a type of expert system which can be useful for repetitive complex forecasting problems when
historical data on the variable to be forecasted are lacking or of poor quality. It is more accurate the
aided judgment.
7) Expert system: (no feedback)
It is designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge by rules experts use to
make predictions, these rules are created from protocols.
Expert system is aided by: expert opinion, conjoint analysis, bootstrapping.
The rules used are from experts and empirical research. This method is expensive and used when
many similar forecasts are derived from the system.
Self Judgment
A) Role

The Thoughtful Forecaster
The Thoughtful Forecaster
Case 5
A Summary Submitted to
Dr. Roy Patin,
Professor of Finance
Submitted by
Faye d'Hamecourt
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
Financial Administration
FINC 5713–170
Midwestern State University
Dillard College of Business Administration
Fall 2011
Date Submitted
August 31, 2011
Forecasting is an important aspect in today's business world. Every day businesses strive or lose,
depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting,
the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and
the company's business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is ...
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Economy conditions includes trends in macroeconomic situations and circumstances in the country.
Modeling a Base–Case Forecast That Incorporates Expectations for Business Strategy
Once the forecaster contains a complete analysis of financial statement trends and environment
conditions, the forecaster can the combine these into the business' operating strategy to from a
complete and proper forecast. The forecaster should also identify actions, coincidental with the
business' operating strategy for achieving these future business outcomes.
Recognizing the Potential for Cognitive Bias in the Forecasting Process
Research has indicated that financial forecasts made by humans are often systematically biased.

There are two types of cognitive bias that are found in human forecasting: optimism bias and
overconfidence bias. Optimism bias is defined as a positive error in the expected number of the
predicted value. As a result of optimism bias, the predicted value is higher than the actual value.
Overconfidence bias is defined as a negative error in the expected variance of the predicted value.
This means that the forecaster believes that the bell curve of the expected value will have a tight
dispersion; in reality this dispersion is much more wide spread.
The most significant issue presented in Case 5 is the section on cognitive bias. It is interesting to
learn that humans are systematically biased when predicting the future of a business enterprise.

An Internship Report On Production Of Graphite Electrodes...
AN INTERNSHIP REPORT ON PRODUCTION OF GRAPHITE ELECTRODES & POWER
GENERATION DURATION: 45 DAYS From May 15, 2015 to June 30, 2015 SUBMITTED TO:
SUBMITTED BY: MRS. P.SUMATI GAJENDRA MALVIYA HR, HEG LTD. MANDIDEEP 4th
YEAR DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE, UTTARAKHAND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I
would like to express gratitude to NLDC, Power System Operation Corporation Ltd (POSOCO) for
providing me a magnificent opportunity in the form of this dissertation to learn. The report bears the
imprints of many people. There are many kinds of helping hands, to which I owe my sense of
gratitude. So, I express my appreciation to all those, whose thoughts and insights helped me in
understanding and completing my training. First of all I would like to thank my training guide Mr.
Pradeep Reddy, who helped me throughout my project. I express my sincere gratitude to Miss
Bindiya Jain– HR for her stimulating guidance,

Budget Managment Analysis
Budget Management Analysis
Christina Hewett
University of Phoenix
Financial Resource Management
NUR/571
Ralph Gigliotti
August 03, 2013
Budget Management Analysis
"Finance should be a fundamental nursing administration content area to meet the growing need for
nurse managers with core competencies in financial and budget management" (Finkler, Kovner,
& Jones, 2007, p. 476). Health care organizations depend on nurse managers to budget the
finances of his or her department appropriately. Budget management analysis includes evaluation of
departmental and organizational financial concerns to include forecasting, benchmarking, and cost
variance. The purpose of this paper is to determine specific strategies to manage budgets within ...
Changes in input services, 2. Changes in input productivity (efficiency), and 3. Changes in
departmental volume" (Clerverley & Cameron, 2007, p. 360).
Another expense results with budget expectations is capital purchases. Capital purchases are those
that cost an organization more than $5,000. Such purchases include radiology equipment, lab
equipment, computer systems. Unexpected expenses occur when equipment failure occurs and a
need for new or repaired equipment arises or when unexpected volumes of patients require
additional capital purchases of equipment to be made. "Working capital management is the role of
the manager, in ensuring that there is adequate cash on hand to meet the organization's needs and
minimizing the cost of those resources" (Finkler et al., 2007, p. 360). Variances occur when multiple
unexpected costs arise and that reserved cash is expended and needs to assume short–term loans or
take away from other departments is necessary. This type of unexpected spending may be
categorized as an unfavorable variance. Unfavorable variances are "variances in which more is spent
than the budgeted amount" (Finkler et al., 2007, p. 501).
Individual departmental occupancy is yet another expense result with budget expectations.
Forecasting allows department managers to predict, based upon historical data, certain occupancy
rates of each department is expected each month. Variances occur when the occupancy is

Global Supply Chain Management Assignment: Fine Fruit Cake...
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Q2. FINE FRUIT CAKE COMPANY A. Monthly
and annual capacity for fine country fruit cake company. 1. Calculations . a. In calculating the
monthly and annual capacity, the following assumptions have been made: The Company works for
five days each week There are four weeks in each month The opening stock of 100 cakes of each
size on 1st of January is not considered while making the calculations b. From the question, we
know that all production is done in batches of 10 kg of only one size of cakes at a time. Therefore
we can either have a batch of ten cakes of 1kg each or 5 cakes of 2 kg each. If we assume that the ...
In the case of Fine Fruit Cake Company, we know that the company's policy is not to stock cakes
more than 3 months old. We also know that available storage space is for about 3000 kg in the cool
room. To evaluate possible reasons for the company having to sell stock at reduced prices, we need
to calculate whether accumulated stock exceeds capacity, resulting in lack of storage space– if
production was maintained at a steady rate while sales diminished, there could have been a
reduction in storage space requiring the company to sell its products at a reduced price. If we
assume an optimum total monthly production capacity of 800 Kg (400 Kg each of 1 kg and 2 Kg
cakes), the accumulated production situation for the year would present as in Table 3 below. As an
example, the net stock for the month of January is calculated by adding opening stock (this was
obtained from information in the question– since the company had 100 cakes of each size) to the
monthly production, and subtracting the sales from this total as: (Opening stock + Production) –
Sales =Net stock. The net stock for the previous month is then carried over to the opening stock for
the following month. Table 3: Net stock and age of stock in months for the year 2011 WEIGHT OF
CAKES (KG) MONTH OF PRODUCTION, 2011 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC OPENING STOCK

Sample Resume : Inventory Management Essay
ERP Assignment – CIA 2 Inventory Management Goods Issue Goods Receipt BY Nancy Castelino
(07) Shamine Fernandes (14) Class: TYBSc.I.T Submitted On: 29/01/2016 INVENTORY
MANAGEMENT The Meaning Of The Word 'Inventory'. Inventory / warehouse are the goods and
materials that a business /organization holds for the ultimate purpose of sale. Inventory Management
Inventory management is a science of specifying the Shape Percentage (%) of stocked goods. It is
essential at many stages in the supply network for regular & planned functioning of production and
stock of goods. Scope of inventory management Replenishment lead time Carrying costs of
inventory Asset management Future inventory price forecasting Physical inventory Available
physical space for inventory Quality management Returns and defective goods Demand forecasting
Involves a retailer seeking to acquire and maintain a proper merchandise assortment while ordering,
shipping, handling, and related costs are kept in check. It also involves systems and processes that
identify inventory requirements, set targets, provide replenishment techniques, report actual and
projected inventory status and handle all functions related to the tracking and management of
material. MAIN REASONS FOR KEEPING AN INVENTORY 1. Time – The distance between the
supplier and the customer can vary in many scenarios this requires that you maintain certain
amounts of inventory to use in this lead time.

Value Line
VALUE LINE PUBLISHING,
OCTOBER 2002
Teaching Note
This case follows the performance–review and financial–statement–forecasting decisions of a Value
Line analyst for the retail–building–supply industry in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong
operating performance of Home Depot with the strong stock–market performance of Lowe's.
Students examine a financial–ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to generate a
comparable ratio analysis for Lowe's. The students' ratio analysis is designed to build intuition with
respect to interpreting individual ratios as well as ratio inter–relationships (e.g., the DuPont
framework). The historical–performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the
ability ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The students should come to realize that the return–on–capital figures should be evaluated relative
to a market–based benchmark, the weighted average cost of capital. Relative to the WACC
calculated in case Exhibit 2, Home Depot is beating its benchmark (12.3 percent), while Lowe's is
below its benchmark (11.6 percent). The class may comment on the justification for differences in
the cost–of–capital estimates for firms that appear so similar in their risk profiles.
Using a DuPont–type decomposition, the instructor can use the available ratio analysis to peel back
the differences in operating performance in margins and turnover. The instructor can also use this
time to build understanding of the economic content of financial ratios. The students should have
used the Home Depot analysis in case Exhibit 7 to build their own ratio analyses of Lowe's. Exhibit
TN1 provides a comparison of the 2001 figures for both companies, which can be the focus of the
discussion. Exhibit TN2 provides the entire five–year analysis for Lowe's as reference. The
discussion is likely to highlight that, across almost any dimension, Home Depot has outperformed
Lowe's on an operating basis in 2001.
This discussion can be contrasted with the stock–market performance. Over the past year, shares in
Lowe's have performed considerably better than those of Home Depot. The instructor can query the

Simulation Reflection Paper
Over the past three weeks in the University of Phoenix Marketing Management class, I have
completed three simulations based on real life marketing situations. The first simulation was titled,
"Forecasting Market Demand." This simulation discussed the importance of determining the future
demand for your product in the voice commanded software industry. The marketing team for the
new Listensoft software needed to accurately forecast the production capacity of the new product
and the pricing strategy. This task is especially difficult because human behavior is difficult to
predict. Forecasting behavior " is about generating numbers out of expectations, opinions,
statements, prior patterns and a host of other subjective elements" (Forecasting ... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
A comparable industry I have determined would be the movie sales and rental industry. The pricing
of my items also will need to be compared to other larger retailers to ensure I am remaining within
the industry average selling price, and the industry trade price. Service Added Based Differentiation
In mature markets such as the luxury car industry, different companies own the market shares
already. These companies sell similar items at comparable prices, so the key to success is to
differentiate their item by adding a service that customers feel is valuable. I found the Service Added
Based Differentiation Simulation very difficult. My results were less than optimal every time I
attempted something different. My first attempt at the differentiation was to add the GPS System in
all of the Camyo vehicles. My decision was poor because it appeared not to have added a higher
value perception within my target market. The customers were able to assign a value to the GPS
system, therefore it was not the best option. Although my actual unit sales were not optimal on my
initial attempt, the profitability of the car was high since I raised the price. My second decision was
made based upon the recommendation to add more than one option. Therefore I added the GPS
system and the weekly car wash. The customers viewed the

Briggs Distributing Case Study
Company Information
The company that I selected for my project is where I currently work. Briggs Distributing. The
company was founded in 1934 by Fred Briggs in 1951 Pete Decker joined Fred Briggs and the
company has been in the Decker family since then. It is now owned by John Decker and his two
children both work for the company. Briggs Distributing is a distribution company that distributes
Miller/Coors, and many other products to local bars, convenience stores, and grocery stores. There
are currently about 70 employees that work for Briggs Distributing. I will be reviewing the selection
process for all of the positions at Briggs Distributing. These positions include, office staff, truck
drivers, sales staff, warehouse and merchandising ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
I think that they do a thorough job in making sure that the position are promoted from within and the
easier to fill entry level positions are filled by external job posting sources. With the filing of open
positions through the promotion process when necessary this creates an environment that employees
will want to be in as they have the potential to move up the ladder. The planning process of what
positions need to be filled and if it is cost effective to fill these positions is very through and makes
sure that there is not wasted expense. The way that the managers and human resources at Briggs
Distributing do a good job of planning for future need. In the interviewing process the way that they
ask redundant questions is a good way to show if someone is honest or not as their answers will
show reliability. Most people do not realize when an interviewer asks the same question in a
different manner. If the candidate is truthful the interviewer will get the same answer no matter how
they ask the question. As I have went through the interview process with three interviews they are
very through in their process. I applied for my position through one of the external websites, after I
applied I actually went on the company website so that I could learn what the history of the
company was and what the position might entail. I had my first interview with Jim, it was then
decided that I would

Essay about Marriott Rooms Forecasting
Marriott Rooms Forecasting Executive Summary In the case of the Hamilton hotel, Snow needs to
make a decision as to if 60 additional rooms reservations should be accepted which could lead to
overbooking (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). It is a problem of capacity utilization that is being faced
in this particular case where revenue maximization is aimed while minimizing customer
dissatisfaction. In this report the case is put forward and various methods have been chosen to come
to a sensible conclusion. Firstly the raw data provided is used and the exponential smoothing model
(ESM) is used to predict the outcome of guests on Saturday the 22nd of August. Next basic statistics
are used and standard deviation is calculated with which the ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
This would be used to forecast Saturdays adjusted pickup ratio taking into consideration the valleys
and peaks of demand, which cannot be forecasted. Finally the forecast of the adjusted pickup ratio
will be multiplied by the Saturday DOW index to get the unadjusted pickup ratio (Weatherford &
Bodily,1990). Issue Statement The center of the case is to come to a decision as to the 60 additional
rooms reservation is to be accepted. How managers are to maximize revenue capacity and predict
efficient forecasts to make good decisions when handling reservations in the case of demand
increasing forecasting and overbooking decisions if they are detrimental to customer loyalty.
Analysis of the Problem The main problem in this case is maximizing capacity utilization. An offer
for 60 additional reservations to be accepted or not is the question to which Snow, the reservation
manager has though of examining the problem through Snow's technique. One is to have a good
forecast of the pickup ratio, which can be multiplied to the Tuesday bookings to get the estimate of
the demand. One has to obtain the forecast of adjusted pickup ratio, which can be multiplied, to the
Saturday DOW Index to obtain the unadjusted pickup ratio. Here is is trying to eliminate the DOW
effect that exists and average the demand through the week (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). Then the

Analysis of Target's Quality Management and Logistics Systems
Analysis of Target's Quality Management and Logistics Systems
Introduction
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is the leading large–format general merchandise and discount
retailer in the U.S., challenging Wal–Mart in electronics, toys and apparel while also seeking to
differentiate with higher–end fashions and products for an upscale audience. As of the close of their
latest fiscal year (FY2011), Target operated approximately 1,760 stores encompassing 233,000
square feet in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company is divided into the retail and
credit card divisions and moves the majority of its products through a highly integrated network of
37 different distribution centers, which include four food distribution centers. Target is one of the
most well–entrenched large format retailers in the U.S., has the ability to manage their pricing
strategies at a level of accuracy and precision that is comparable to Wal–Mart (Henderson, 2001).
Unlike Wal–Mart, Target concentrates on a value–based message that concentrates on quality and
price differentiation to sustain their gross margins while Wal–Mart concentrates on supply chain
efficiency and a continual reduction of supplier and transaction costs (Krishnamurthi, 2001).
Analysis of Quality Management Procedures in Target Logistics
Target is considered by many experts and industry analysts as the leading retailer using distributed
order management systems, including their ability to continually make the Sales &

Who is Avon‚Äôs target market? How can it be segmented?
Case Study Measuring Systematic Risk For the first chart, we can measure the systematic risk.
Systematic risk is defined as the risk that cannot be diversified away. The systematic risk of an
individual asset is really just a measure of the relation between the returns on the individual asset
and the returns on the market. Now, we draw a 45o line across the origin as the picture. The the line
shows the company's performance when the measure stay at the same systematic risk as market.
From this chart, we can see the points above the line are less than the points under the line and most
of the points under the line are close to the line. Therefore, we can get that at the same systematic
risk as ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Secondly, the error may be greater than 0 or may be less than 0. The last but not the least important,
except variable being –1, Forecast error is around 0, in other words, the forecast in these two chart is
acceptable. Therefore, the error in these two chart can be used. We can use them as a reference.
However, we must consider when the variable equals –1 and if possible, we should find the reason
and correct it. Also, the low error means this business has a low risk, it basically can develop as the
plan. But variable being –1 is an instability. We should pay more attention to it when we think about
this chart. Return on investment (ROI) Return on investment (ROI) is the concept of an investment
of some resource yielding a benefit to the investor. A high ROI means the investment gains compare
favorably to investment cost. As a performance measure, ROI is used to evaluate the efficiency of an
investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. In purely economic
terms, it is one way of considering profits in relation to capital invested. From this chart, we can get
that the investment return from 1955 to 1984 is stable, the return is not far from 0. However, after
1984, the return is more and more unstable, the amplitude of chart is bigger and bigger, which
means investor will have a higher risk in this investment. They can earn a lot but they also can lose a
lot. And until 2008, this trend

Mergers and Acquisitions: Biases and How to Avoid Them
Introduction Mergers and acquisitions are a very important part of today's corporate finance. It is
seen as an important tool for the expansion of a company and to further its growth prospects. CEOs
of big companies wish to actively participate in M&A processes to turn the enterprises into big
conglomerates, thereby achieving profits and gains from the acquired firms in the future. M&A
activities however involve a long and complicated procedure of decision–making and this process is
fraught with a lot of biases. Empirical evidence has shown that most of the acquiring firms fail to
reap the expected profits from M&A activities. In a study conducted by Schoenberg in 2006, he
found out that executives of the acquiring firms believe that only 56% of their acquired targets can
be considered as successful acquisitions based on the original objectives set forth for them. It is thus
surprising why the corporate world sees extensive M&A activity in–spite of the adverse effect of
acquisitions on the returns of the acquirers' shareholders because of the lofty acquisition premiums.
Roll (1986) came up with the 'hubris hypothesis' that tried to explain the psychological bedrock of
M&A failures by pointing at 'CEO hubris' as one of the crucial and important reasons of CEOs
overpaying for their acquisition targets. Later in 1997, Hayward and Hambrick in their study also
found out several indicators that associated CEO hubris with the high premiums paid for
acquisitions. Though

Analysis Of PV, Battery And DER System
PV, Battery and CHP modification Class Diagram of PV PV The class diagram above shows the
representation of a PV DER system with its logical nodes as properties. It is important to point out
that a PV may have additional logical nodes or components based on its description. The
representation above is a reflection of the implementation to be used in conducting our HUAS lab
test. The diagram is an extension to that of deliverable 6.2.2. The modifications allowed for the DER
systems to be functional and object oriented. From a programing perspective it seemed that some
encapsulation was missing and as such some of the attributes of the classes were changed from
public to protected or private where deemed necessary. Additional ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
The 96 values are then written to the DER server(via JPB––>iec61850) where the registry reads
them (via iec61850–––>JPB) and makes a printout for comparison and then writing them to the
registry's database. Once written to the database the aggregator reads all 96 values (via the rest API)
and selects what it would like to use as set points. After selecting the desired value(s) it is then
written directly to the DER server (iec61850–––>JPB ) as a set point for the logical device the
availability represents. Lastly the smart gateway is notified that of the change in the DER server and
a check is made to see if that was the value sent by the aggregator. Smart Gateway ( Node RED)
This is the flow representing the communication between the Java Python Bridge and the Smart
Gateway (realized on Node–RED). There are mainly three main streams of communication are
based on (1) Receiving a setpoint, (2) Returning a status from the respective Device and (3)
Updating the schedule with 96 values. 1. The setpoint is received with an address or a specific
reference to which device that should be controlled as well as whether if it is a simulation or a live
test. Then the SG accordingly processes this message into a suitable format for the following nodes
in the flow. And finally sends the setpoint to the respective Flow in which the recipient device is
being managed. 2. Each of these devices will respond accordingly to the setpoint given and as soon
as the given command from

Budgeting and Control: Analysis of E Krell's Article 'The...
Budgeting and Control The article, "The Case Against Budgeting" explains how the budgeting
process has essentially become obsolete in the current business climate. Krell explains that many
businesses feel that the budgeting process takes too much time and when it's finally completed the
final product is usually less than desirable (2003). "Businesses need more agile forecasting and
reforecasting capabilities, but the organizational barriers to those capabilities are formidable" (Krell,
2003). Krell reviews the most common reasons that most budgets fail; it's usually a hybrid of
reasons from shoddy strategic planning, to an inability of the management to take strong corrective
action, to a general absence of faith in the budget, resulting in an overwhelming amount of apathy
(2003). Krell describes how ineffective budgeting can be toxic to a company, creating a state of
overaggressive assumptions leading to decreased morale within employees, cash flow conflicts,
consistent disappointment and necessary reforecasting, surprises in earnings, postponed capital
acquisition, and developing a state where bad decisions are made over and over again (2003). Krell
clearly highlights how perilous bad budgets can be for an organization, both fiscally and for the
atmosphere and sense of accomplishment. Krell uses the article as a means of emphasizing how
proper performance management processes and tools can assist in reallocating the time of financial
planners and analysts (2003).

Google Prediction Markets Essay
Part I: Briefly evaluate how Google's Prediction Markets have worked to date. To what extent have
the markets been successful or unsuccessful? 250 When the five Googlers got together to start with
this project, their main objective was to launch an internal prediction market and test if crowds
would make more accurate predictions than individuals'. To determine if this project was a success
or not we need to determine our parameters of success. Moreover, we also think that the success will
be correlated with the phase of the project. From the case we can see that this project is still going
through its first steps, despite the system has been running for seven quarters. To measure success,
we need to evaluate; first, how accurately the ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Endorsement effect. By default, the decision makers will tend to continue with what they are
actually doing (if the market is not diverse enough this bias cannot be corrected, if everyone asked is
in Goggle then they might be influenced by this type of bias). Under what conditions are prediction
markets most likely to perform relatively well and relatively poorly? 417 Efficient functioning of
prediction markets, within the context of a corporation like Google, would depend on the following
three aspects: a) Volume of participants: By the nature of market–based decision–making, we would
need large and diverse set of participants. Larger participation set will eliminate various biases
discussed earlier. Liquidity (ability to trade) will allow participants to calibrate their bets and
decisions based on new information. b) Diversity: Diversity of thought, perspective and motives
within the participation set is also very important for prediction markets. Google should encourage
participation from different geographies, different teams, varied level of seniority and
demographics. This will create a market where participants interpret information and signals in
different ways so that the collective action normalizes for any bias. This diversity will eliminate any
overconfidence in decision–making and will provide a valuable "outsider" view. The issue of
diversity is quite important in closed markets (e.g. Google). This issue is amplified when

Personal Statement: The Purpose Of Art And Design
I've been highly interested in art since 6. I loved drawing on my exam sheets and school books,
sketching fantastic thoughts and comic stories. However, I had never realized the purpose of art and
design until getting into high school. Inspired by activist artists Guerrilla Girls mentioned by the
teacher in art class, I found art could serve as a useful tool to advocate social issues like feminism.
Others critical knowledge I had learnt is color theory and art directing. By analyzing fantasy movies
and ingenious commercial films, I understood the process of design could be rational and rigorous,
and the works could include cultural symbols and personal experience. I'm so enthusiastic about art
that I refused my parents' suggestions of applying an elite law institute and determined to major in
communication in university when I was 19. When watching my works, people always say they can
feel a unique subjective emotion and notice the powerful stories and meanings I express. This is
because I've developed most design skills not only from formal art education but from interaction
with people when studying communication as well. Before designing, I tend to spend lots of time
defining ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In this project, I came up with a bold idea to design movie posters by making an amazing
background full of newspaper practically rather than using computer visual effect. Also, I tried my
best to set the main scene of this film. In order to present the sombre atmosphere of the entire
newspaper office, I researched the lighting and color grading from Hong Kong gangster films and
Taiwanese dramas, interviewing journalists and investigating process of producing news. 'Anything
But Truth' won an award of 5th Macau International Micro–movie Festival (Macau, 2015) and was
selected in 14th The International Student Film&Video Of Beijing Film Academic (Beijing, 2015)
and several film festivals in

John Moody Case Study Essay
John Moody
What should be done to turn around the Organization?
Charlotte Wilson
Chancellor University
Abstract
This paper explores a case study in which an organization went into a recession and had to
reorganize everything. I will be explaining how recession works and what happens in a recession. I
will also talk about planning and organization of a business. We will also explore what people have
to do when in a recession.
John Moody
What Should be Done to Turn Around the Organization
Often time's people in this country today, take for–granted the comfort they have established over
the past several years. A booming economy and a bull market has set the standard for today's
society, giving us an optimistic outlook for ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The second dimension is tangibles which are things like physical facilities, equipment, personnel,
communication materials, etc. The third dimension is responsiveness, as the company needs to make
sure they are giving the customer the most adequate service, as well as promptly giving that service.
The fourth dimension is assurance, which is when a company conveys trust and confidence so the
consumer does not have to worry about their service being completed. The last dimension is
empathy; because consumers do not want an uncaring person handling a mistake when they are
stressed enough, but much rather have a caring employee deal with the matter. All of the quality
dimensions are really focused around keeping your product or service where it has been without
raising costs, as well as keeping a healthy customer service sector on board to work through
troubling economic times where consumers do not want to worry about services that have been loyal
to them in the past. (Hartlet et al., 2008, p. 34,36,121) (Hollis, 2008, p. 3–4)" One of the most
common techniques used to assess an organization's performance is the Gap Analysis. According to
Harvey and Brown (2001) this tool is typically used to assess an organization's response to
opportunities in its environment. During

How Does Lovallo And Kahneman 's Inside View?
Question 1) How does Lovallo and Kahneman's "inside view" ("Delusions of Success") differ from
the "outside view"? Contrast the entrepreneur and venture capitalist. How can a firm or organization
maximize the extent to which its managers take the "outside view" in their decisions? Individuals
and organizations are often influenced by the "inside view" when making decisions. Excessive
optimism leads decision makers to budget, plan for, and forecast outcomes of important projects
based on their specific views of the unique project at hand. They often feel that they are most aware
of all the special considerations that go along with their project; they understand its objective, the
resources they brought into it, the obstacles to its completion, along with constructing in their minds
scenarios of their progress and extrapolating current trends into the future. Interestingly, each
individual has both the perspective of the inside view as well as the "outside view." The outside
view, also known as reference–class forecasting, is the more generalized view that we can take,
when we consider the forecasts and respective outcomes for analogous situations with a similar class
of decision making criteria or objectives. It is more natural for individuals to adopt the inside view
when making decisions. However, taking the outside view is the beneficial approach, as it often
results in more accurate and reliable forecasts. The entrepreneur and venture capitalist are on two
sides of the

Designing New Ranges And Collections Essay
Introduction
A fashion design portfolio is a collection of samples put together by a fashion designer to show off
his or her skills to prospective employer or fashion school. A typical fashion design portfolio should
include fashion illustrations, an inspiration or mood board with textile swatches, flat sketches and
floats. Research methods are the processes used to collect information and data for the purpose of
making decisions, may they be in business or otherwise. The methodology may include
publications, research, interviews, surveys and other techniques which may include both present and
historical information.
Research Methods
The processes involved in designing new ranges and collections normally begin with researching
and gathering information. Fashion designers have limited training in research and rarely conduct
studies thus resulting in intuitive and subjective judgements. Contributing to such problems is the
limited amount of time available to conduct the research and the heavy costs involved in designers
gathering information.
As a result, research methods which can be used by fashion designers include trade shows,
forecasting, publications, catwalk shows, directional shopping trips, cultural events, historic sources,
music and media and the internet. In essence, designers need to draw upon a diverse range of
information to inform their decision–making during the process of range planning and development.
The type of product and the

Forecast Essay
1. Select one industry from the list below: The select one industry from the list below is restaurant 2.
What specific variables would be needed by that organization in order to forecast? Be sure you
explain "why" you selected each variable and why it is important to forecasting.. Sales forecasts are
common and essential tools used for business planning, marketing, and general management
decision making. A sales forecast is a projection of the expected customer demand for products or
services at a specific company, for a specific time horizon, and with certain underlying assumptions.
A separate but related projection is the market forecast, which is an attempt to gauge the size of the
entire market for a certain class of goods or ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The simplest example would be to consider the influence of widely observed macroeconomic
indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment rates. A simplistic model of
market growth might indicate that based on time–series data from the past decade the restaurant
market tends to grow at one and one–tenth times the rate of GDP when the national unemployment
rate is less than 7 percent, and at four–fifths of the GDP growth rate when unemployment is greater
than 7 percent. Suppose an analyst wishes to create a two–year forecast for the national restaurant
business. Using published estimates from government or private sector economists, the analyst
might learn that next year's GDP is expected to grow at 2.9 percent and unemployment is expected
to register at 6.7 percent. The following year, however, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9
percent and unemployment is expected to rise to 7.6 percent. Using the simple model outlined, the
forecast for next year's restaurant sales growth would be based on the first condition observed,
namely that market growth is somewhat (10 percent) higher than GDP growth when unemployment
is relatively low. In other words, the first year's forecast would be 1.1 × 2.9, or 3.19 percent
restaurant market growth. In the second year, the second condition would come into

Kevin Tenorio. Dr. Stoycheva. Pol 601 Budget Analysis And
Kevin Tenorio
Dr. Stoycheva
POL 601 Budget Analysis and Financial Management
3 May 2017
Final Exam
1. How has the property tax changed over time for local governments? What are the advantages and
disadvantages of the property tax as a revenue source? In response to these questions, make sure to
refer to the main principles of taxation (equity, efficiency, adequacy of revenue, political feasibility,
and cost of administration), tax and expenditure limitations, as well as the importance of revenue
diversification for local government.
Historically, property taxes have been the primary source of the local government's income. In fact,
approximately 70% of the local governments' revenue stems from property taxes (Lee, Johnson, and
Joyce, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This could lead to that individual moving to another location, also known as gentrification. Political
feasibility is high since it has historically been a consistent source of revenue. Cost of administration
would be relatively low since property taxes, in terms of keeping track of properties, is relatively
easy because of its tangibility and lack of mobility.
With respect to revenue diversification, local governments have attempted to diversify their sources
of revenue by implementing one or a combination of these taxes: sales taxes, income taxes, game of
chance taxes (gambling, races, lotter, and their derivatives), user charge taxes, and sumptuary taxes
(cigarettes, alcohol, and their derivatives) (Lee, Johnson, and Joyce, 2013). In circumstances that
affect the primary source of revenue, having access to other sources may serve as a buffer for the
local government. However, the problems with these sorts of taxes is uncertainty. Property tax, as
stated earlier is the most reliable while income or sales taxes rely on income/ salaried employees and
consumption of products, respectively.
2. Explain the major forecasting methods used by governments to forecast revenues and
expenditures. Explain Florida's experience with the consensus forecasting process. Discuss which
methods are more likely to be used and for what revenue

Fine Fruit Cake Company Case Study
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Q2. FINE FRUIT CAKE COMPANY A. Monthly
and annual capacity for fine country fruit cake company. 1. Calculations . a. In calculating the
monthly and annual capacity, the following assumptions have been made: The Company works for
five days each week There are four weeks in each month The opening stock of 100 cakes of each
size on 1st of January is not considered while making the calculations b. From the question, we
know that all production is done in batches of 10 kg of only one size of cakes at a time. Therefore
we can either have a batch of ten cakes of 1kg each or 5 cakes of 2 kg each. If we assume that the
company can produce an average of 2 batches each of ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
C. CHANGING MARKETS Currently, Fine Fruit Cakes Company sells its cakes mostly to cafes
and restaurants. In trying to increase sales to crafts shops and tourist centres, the following
advantages and disadvantages need to be considered: Advantages Crafts shops and tourist business
would offer more flexibility and may not require goods at short notice as compared to cafes and
restaurants; this would reduce pressure on the company's production. The new markets would
probably not demand discounts, (such as those demanded by restaurants), allowing higher profit
margins They would also probably require goods in smaller sizes (1 kg cakes as compared to 2 kg
cakes). As discussed previously, such a change in the 'mix' of products would result in higher profits
since 1 kg cakes take less time to produce due to their shorter baking time. A look of the trends in
sales reveals that there is a strong seasonal influence on sales; there are significantly higher sales
figures in the months of March, October and November, with the highest recorded sales are in
December, reflecting a heavy demand for cakes during Easter and Christmas seasons. This would
probably change if the company focused on these new outlets; production would probably level out
during the rest of the year and increase during tourist (summer) months resulting in an alternative,
non–peak demand. As a result, the company would be

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