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NewBase Energy News 03 March 2022 No. 1491 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
South Asian Nations Switch to Expensive Diesel Due to LNG
Supply Crunch
Bloomberg -Faseeh Mangi and
Pakistan and Bangladesh are turning to expensive and dirty diesel fuel to generate electricity as the
nations struggle to secure shipments of liquefied natural gas amid a supply crunch intensified by
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Pakistan’s diesel-fired power generation rose to the highest level in at least seven years in January,
while LNG-based output dipped to the lowest in almost two years, according to government data
compiled by Arif Habib Ltd. The two fuels each generated about 7% of the South Asian country’s
electricity in January.
That’s bound to continue as Pakistan has failed to find replacement LNG cargoes after long-term
supplies were forced to cancel deliveries.
Revving Up
Pakistan's diesel power generation rises to highest level in at least seven years
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“LNG supply looks tight at the moment and LNG prices were expected to remain elevated even
before the invasion of Ukraine,” said Simon Nicholas, an analyst at the Institute for Energy
Economics and Financial Analysis. “It’s likely Bangladesh and Pakistan will need to continue to use
more diesel and oil in power generation.”
Energy prices -- already elevated amid a supply-demand imbalance as the world recovers from the
pandemic -- have surged following the invasion and sanctions on Russia in response. Higher costs
pose a particular burden for developing economies, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, in their fight
against climate change.
The issue also highlights a growing problem with depending too much on LNG, which has suffered
from a shortage as demand has largely outstripped supply over the last few years.
It threatens to boost power costs across South Asia, increase government subsidies to support
power payments and hurt the economic recovery in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Pakistan’s fuel costs
doubled in January, compared with the same period a year ago, data from Arif Habib show.
Diesel is the most expensive fuel for power generation in Pakistan, costing 14% more than fuel oil
and 55% more than LNG-based generation, according to January data by the National Electric
Power Regulatory Authority. Diesel use also comes as the nation’s refineries have been filled with
fuel oil, meaning that there are other options for power, said Tahir Abbas, Arif Habib’s head of
research.
LNG Imports
Liquefied natural gas imports into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are set to hit a low point
in February due to unaffordable spot LNG prices, according to BloombergNEF. A total of 39 cargoes
arrived in January, the lowest since February 2019. BloombergNEF estimates the share of spot
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volume in South Asia’s total LNG imports fell to just 18% of January supply, down from 25% in the
previous month.
Bangladesh’s LNG supply crunch started after a mooring line at Summit Group’s floating storage
and regasification unit broke down in November, said Mohammad Hossain, director general of
Power Cell, a unit of Bangladesh’s Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources. Bangladesh
extended downtime for compressed natural gas stations.
Pakistan’s growing gas shortage this winter forced residents to turn to cylinders in Karachi and
authorities offered discounts to make users switch from gas to electricity for heating. The nation’s
domestic gas production has fallen by about a fifth over the past two years, making LNG supply
even more crucial.
Diesel is used only when there are constraints and largely for system stability and restoration in
instances of blackouts and outages, Pakistan’s energy ministry said in a response to questions.
There is no requirement for diesel fuel for power generation until June, it said.
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Saudi Arabia promotes sustainable living by setting up first EV plant
Copyright: Arab News © 2022 All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
Saudi Arabia has announced setting up its first electric vehicle manufacturing plant in the country
as the government plans to ensure 30 percent of all vehicles in the capital city Riyadh run on
electricity by 2030.
This is yet another step toward promoting sustainable living in the Kingdom that has set out
ambitious plans to diversify away from the oil economy under Vision 2030.
The plant that will have a capacity to produce up to 150,000 electric vehicles every year will be set
up by Lucid Group. The American firm recently signed a deal with the Saudi Ministry of Investment
and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, allowing it to set up its first plant outside the US in
Saudi Arabia.
“Our strong relationships with the PIF and our partners at MISA, KAEC, and SIDF give us unique
insight into the demand for luxury cars and SUVs in Saudi Arabia and beyond. We are thrilled to
introduce the world’s most advanced electric vehicles to more global markets,” said Peter
Rawlinson, CEO of Lucid Group.
The Lucid plant is expected to unlock huge funds that the government plans to hand out as subsidies
to promote sustainable projects undertaken by local and foreign firms, including PIF backed
companies.
“Building a plant in Saudi Arabia can provide access to government subsidies which should be in
favor of the company’s success,” said Mohammed Al-Suwayed, CEO of Razeen Capital.
The PIF, a major stakeholder in Lucid, is developing several giga-projects, many of which revolve
around sustainability and environmentally friendly practices.
Among these projects are NEOM, and the Red Sea project, which aim to limit the use of standard
vehicles inside their destinations.
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“We are looking to find out ways to bring and operate and maintain electric vehicles and build EV
grids in the destination,” said Najwa Hamzeh, senior smart destination director at TRSDC, in an
exclusive interview with Arab News.
She said many steps need to be undertaken to keep this move practical and sufficient, including
finding enough maintenance facilities and EV charging points.
“We are also looking to build the first vehicle maintenance facility and depot for EVs,” added
Hamzeh.
The imports of electric vehicles charging were permitted in 2020, in accordance with the specified
procedures, said Saad Alkasabi, governor of Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization,
or SASO.
“The Kingdom started to study the technical, economic, and environmental details related to EV, its
infrastructure, as well as the opportunities it offers to reduce environmental pollution,” he added,
according to Argaam.
The Public Investment Fund initially invested in Lucid Group in 2018, with its majority stake currently
equating to $46 billion. The Lucid plant is expected to generate up to $3.4 billion in value for the
company over the next 15 years.
Establishing a factory for the Lucid company will contribute to achieving the fund’s objectives,
including raising the proportion of local content to 60 percent in the fund and its subsidiaries by the
end of 2025. The partnership between the PIF and Lucid Group is expected to provide training
opportunities to Saudi youth, who can also enroll for the Lucid Company program that has graduated
many specialists.
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Oman plans to award oil and gas blocks to boost production
Offshore Technology - By Archana Rani
The Government of Oman is planning to award three oil and gas blocks this year to increase its
exploration and production, reported Oman Daily Observer. The government is in negotiations to
sign a commercial agreement for one of the blocks, Block 11.
At a virtual meeting, Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals Under-Secretary Salim al Aufi said
that the government is in negotiations with oil and gas firms Shell and TotalEnergies to sign a
commercial agreement that will see the development of one of its blocks, namely Block 11.
Al Aufi stated: “Discussions are ongoing now to finalise the commercial agreement between the
government and the same [Block 10] partners for Block 11.”
Block 11 is located adjacent to Block 10, which is expected to have peak production capacity of 0.5
standard cubic feet of gas per day (bscf/d). Planned to start production in two years, the gas-
rich Block 10 was awarded to Shell and its partners in December 2021.
Shell holds a 53.45% stake in Block 10 while partners Oman’s national petroleum investment
company OQ and Marsa Liquefied Natural Gas own 13.36% and 33.19% interests, respectively.
Marsa Liquefied Natural Gas is a joint venture of OQ and France’s TotalEnergies.
Al Aufi added: “We have three blocks in the market. We are just waiting for the final bids to arrive. I
think last day is March 31 of this year, then we will start looking into evaluating the bids and hopefully
allocating some of these blocks.”
According to National Center for Statistics and Information, Oman’s total natural gas production and
imports was 46.05 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the first 11 months of 2021. This marks an increase
compared with 42.186bcm in November 2020.
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Iraq pumped well below OPEC+ oil quota in Feb.22, data shows
Reuters - Rowena Edwards
Iraq pumped 4.18 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in February, 150,000 bpd short of its allowance
under a deal with other OPEC+ producers, data from state-owned marketer SOMO seen by Reuters
showed on Wednesday.
Output rose by just 13,000 bpd from January, the SOMO data showed, as like several other OPEC
members, Iraq struggles to pump more oil at a time of already tight global supply, rising demand
and soaring prices.
Brent crude futures touched a peak of $113 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since June 2014.
Upgrade work at its Gulf ports, which went on for most of 2021 and are scheduled to be finished in
the second quarter, have prevented Iraq from pumping larger volumes.
Iraq has also temporarily halted more than a tenth of its oil output due to maintenance and protests.
Outages come from the 400,000 bpd West Qurna 2 oilfield and the 80,000 bpd Nassiriya oil
field. read more
The country was forced to dip into crude stocks last month, which fell by an average 79,000 b/d
from January, the SOMO data showed. This includes stocks in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan
region.
Iraq's undersupply meant its compliance with the OPEC+ pact stood at 146% last month, the SOMO
figures showed. OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
allies led by Russia, uses an average of secondary source production figures to determine
compliance.
OPEC pumped 28.39 million bpd in February, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, up 420,000 bpd
from January and above the 254,000 bpd increase called for under the deal. However, the 10
OPEC members are still pumping less than called for under the deal and OPEC compliance with
pledged cuts was 136%, the survey found, versus 132% in January.
OPEC+ oil producers are scheduled to meet on Wednesday. The group would likely agree on
another 400,000 bpd increase for April, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
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U.K: Mocean Energy build wave energy device for O&G sector
Offshore Energy - Amir Garanovic
Scottish company Mocean Energy has secured €875,000 to accelerate the commercial roll-out of
its wave energy technology and drive its adoption in offshore oil and gas sector.
Cameron McNatt with Blue X wave energy prototype (Courtesy of Mocean Energy)
Mocean Energy has raised a little over €875,000 equity funding from existing funders, led by angel
syndicate Equity Gap, together with Old College Capital, the University of Edinburgh’s in-house
venture investment fund, and Scottish Enterprise.
The new funds will enable the company to advance the design of its next-generation Blue Star wave
machine and drive its adoption in subsea oil and gas, Mocean Energy said.
Last year, the company successfully trialed its Blue X prototype at sea at the European Wave
Energy Centre (EMEC) in Orkney, and is currently collaborating with partners to advance a
demonstrator project, called ‘Renewables for Subsea Power’.
The project is expected to show how Mocean Energy’s technology can be coupled with underwater
energy storage to provide reliable low carbon power to subsea equipment and autonomous
underwater vehicles. According to Mocean Energy, the plans are in place to test the system at sea
later in 2022.
Commenting on the new funds, Mocean Energy’s managing director Cameron McNatt said: “The
equity funding is a tremendous boost and will allow us to accelerate our product roll out. “This year
we’ll start fabricating Blue Star 10 – a 10kW machine based around the Blue X design which will
begin commercial trails in 2023.
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“In parallel we are developing our next-generation Blue Star 20, a 20kW machine based on a new
optimized geometry, which will include solar panels and a novel direct drive generator, with trials
and rollout targeted for 2024-25.
“Both products are aimed at opportunities in the oil and gas energy transition, defense, offshore
wind, and ocean science markets where they can be used to provide power to remote subsea
equipment, robotics, and monitoring systems.”
Mocean Energy has seen increasing interest from the oil and gas sector and has opened a
dedicated office in Aberdeen to meet customer demand, while the firm’s staff has grown to 17.
The new funds follow a €1.03 million seed raise which was completed in 2020, comprising €735,000
equity funding plus €300,000 grant from Innovate UK, the UK Government’s innovation agency.
Mocean Energy’s Blue Star wave energy device powering subsea assets (Courtesy of Mocean Energy)
Kerry Sharp, director of growth investments at Scottish Enterprise, said: “Bold and ambitious low-
carbon technology companies like Mocean Energy are fundamental to Scotland’s just transition to
a net-zero emission economy.
“Scottish Enterprise is pleased that our ongoing support to the team at Mocean is helping them to
scale up and explore their international aspirations, and we hope this most recent investment will
see Mocean move ever closer to fully commercializing their innovative wave power technology.”
To remind, last year, a consortium comprising Mocean Energy, Verlume, Harbour Energy and Baker
Hughes with funding from Net Zero Technology Centre – formerly known as OGTC – invested €1.9
million into a program to develop a wave power and energy storage system for subsea operations.
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NewBase March 03-2022 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Brent touches nine-year high, supply issues roil oil markets
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $118 a barrel as trade disruption
and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries, while
U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows.
Brent crude futures rose as high as $118.22 a barrel, the highest since February 2013. The contract
was at $116.60 a barrel, up $3.67, or 3.2%, by 0415 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude hit an 11-year high of $114.70 a barrel and was at $113.01 a
barrel, up $2.41, or 2.2%.
The gains followed the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil refining sector that raised
concerns that Russian oil and gas exports could be targeted next. read more
So far, Washington has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports as the Biden
administration weighs the impacts on global oil markets and U.S. energy prices. read more
"They may be saying that, but global financial institutions are doing the heavy lifting and blanket
banning anything with Russia written on the documentation," OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley said.
"I think as long as the West holds its nerve, oil will still go higher."
Australia's ANZ raised its short-term target for oil to $125 a barrel, adding that supply shortages
could see further upside.
Russia is the world's No. 3 oil producer and the largest exporter of oil to global markets, according
to the International Energy Agency. Russian crude and oil products exports reached 7.8 million
barrels per day in December, the agency said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, known as
OPEC+, decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the
price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for
more crude. read more
"OPEC+ essentially punted on sending any production signals to calm the runaway oil market,
rolling over the 400 kb/d production increase in record time," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said
in a note.
Oil price special
coverage
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"While some remain transfixed with the idea that an Iran agreement will provide much needed relief,
we again caution that the deal is still not done and the sums entailed would simply be too small to
backfill a major Russian disruption."
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Tehran on Saturday, Iranian
news agency Nournews reported, suggesting this could help pave the way to a revival of Iran's 2015
nuclear agreement with major powers. read more
Meanwhile, U.S. oil inventories continued to decline. Tanks at the key Cushing, Oklahoma crude
hub were at their lowest since 2018, while U.S. strategic reserves dropped to a near 20-year low -
and that was before another release announced by the White House on Tuesday in tandem with
other industrialised nations.
Why $100 oil could hurt the energy transition more than it helps
By Timothy Gardner
The surge in crude oil prices past $100 a barrel has raised a big question: Will this latest spike in
the notoriously volatile oil market help to speed the global transition from fossil fuels to cleaner
energy sources to fight climate change?
The answer is probably not.
On the one hand, energy analysts say, soaring prices for gasoline, diesel and other products made
from crude oil will drive cost-conscious consumers more quickly into electric vehicles and boost
investment in competing clean technologies like hydrogen.
But at the same time, these high prices will also drive more
drilling of oil and gas around the globe, as fossil fuel
companies rush to cash in, sowing the seeds for the boom
to turn to bust. That will make oil abundant and affordable
again.
That is a pattern that the world has seen repeatedly in the
oil age, and one that has punished clean energy investors
harshly in the past.
Here are some of the arguments on either side of the
debate:
CONSUMER SHIFT
When fossil fuel prices rise, consumers start to take electric vehicles and clean energy alternatives
more seriously – not just for their environmental benefits but in hopes of eventually saving cash. It
is a scenario that played out after oil nearly broke $150 a barrel in 2008, giving a boost to electric
vehicle sales.
Global sales of electric vehicles are growing, particularly in China and Europe, and to a lesser
extent, the United States.
And the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the industrialized world's energy watchdog, has
said rising oil prices could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and also
accelerate the transition to renewable power sources like solar and wind, whose costs have dropped
in recent years.
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But at the same time, sales of gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles in 2021, a year of steadily rising
oil prices, were on track to hit 45% of global car sales, which would set a record in both volume and
market share, according to the IEA.
That SUV demand canceled out the efficiency gains of EVs and has raised questions about the
degree to which high oil prices influence the transition. Analysts also point out that cars and trucks
only burn about 20-25% of the world's petroleum, with other sectors such as manufacturing, marine
transport, aviation and agriculture making very few gains in fuel efficiency.
"We have not seen any sign of energy transition yet," in those sectors, said Claudio Galimberti, an
analyst at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy.
HIGH PRICES SPUR DRILLING
There is another dynamic at play. For decades oil has been caught in a boom and bust cycle: High
prices spur investment in oil and gas drilling which, in turn, leads to lower prices that increase
demand for oil. There is little reason to think this time would be any different.
In the United States, for example, the world's largest oil producer, drillers are already preparing to
boost output. U.S. oil production is expected to soar next year to an all-time high above the 2019
record of 12.25 million barrels per day before peaking at 13.88 million bpd in 2034, according to the
U.S. Energy Information Administration.
High prices would only accelerate this trend, not slow it.
Most of the world's oil reserves, meanwhile, about 65%, are controlled by national oil companies
fully or partially owned by state governments.
The governments of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Iraq all quickly get richer when oil prices rise
because they are among the world's lowest cost producers of crude, a trend researchers say
deepens commitments to the petro-economy.
"High oil prices prolong the idea even with the most high-cost producers among the national oil
companies that they can survive the energy transition, rather than work on pivoting away from oil
into clean energy," said Paasha Mahdavi, a political science professor at University of California,
Santa Barbara.
They also reinforce the notion that reinvesting the society's wealth in oil is "optimal for balancing
government budgets today and in the future," he said. There is some nuance, though: Saudi Arabia,
for example, is leading an effort to generate hydrogen produced with green energy like wind and
solar at its mega city of the future NEOM, a project that it is funding with petrodollars.
"Higher oil prices do allow low cost petro states to continue making investments in some of these
decarbonized solutions, but only among this small group," said Mahdavi.
VOLATILITY KILLS COMPETITION
This tendency to meet high prices with increased supply leads to another problem for clean energy:
volatility.
Rapid swings in prices make it hard for investors to plan and can even kill some alternative energy
projects, said Deborah Gordon, who leads the oil and gas solutions initiative at RMI, a Colorado-
based research group on energy innovation and efficiency.
"The much bigger risk for the energy transition is volatility," Gordon said. "It's not high prices or low
prices, it's this ongoing shift."
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NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world –March -04 -2022
Russia’s war with Ukraine offers critical lessons for global
energy markets
Catherine Clifford@IN/CATCLIFFORD/@CATCLIFFORD
KEY POINTS
 The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas show
that a diversification of energy supplies is critical to establishing energy security.
 At the same time, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report out on
Monday notes that coal and fossil fuels are “choking humanity.”
 The confluence of these events spotlight a few key points about current global energy
markets.
A solar energy field stands next to the Lippendorf coal-fired power plant on May 10, 2021 in Lippendorf, Germany.
The Ukrainian people are bearing the heaviest weight of the war they are fighting with
Russia, but the war has had grave consequences for global energy markets as well.T
he European Union relies on Russian natural gas, and that dependence has forced the
United States and Europe to, so far, maintain loopholes in their otherwise tough
economic sanctions on Russia.
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On Wednesday, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki indicated the Biden
administration was considering energy sanctions on Russia, but that’s a very tough call
in the face of high oil prices in both the U.S. and Europe.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is one wrench in global energy markets, and another is
climate change. As Monday’s highly anticipated report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change made urgently and desperately clear, global warming is an
urgent threat to human welfare.
“Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone – now. Many ecosystems are at the
point of no return – now,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday.
“Unchecked carbon pollution is forcing the world’s most vulnerable on a frog march to
destruction – now.”
Teetering on this precipice with climate change while simultaneously surviving the
Russian and Ukraine war is generating a new framework for understanding the global
energy markets.
Energy independence is not the same as energy security
A nation’s national energy policy is a cornerstone of its national security policy.
In Europe’s case, “it was staggeringly irresponsible to outsource gas storage to
Gazprom,” said Steve Cicala from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Cicala
focuses on the economics of regulation, and specifically on environmental and energy
policy. Gazprom is the Russian energy giant that’s majority owned by the state.
Going forward, the EU “should be moving at the maximum possible speed to get
themselves off of Russian gas,” Cicala said.
That does not mean energy independence is the benchmark.
“The goal is security,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at UC San Diego.
“And security is not the same thing as independence.”
Energy independence means relying on national or local sources of energy. But even
there, flexibility is limited if one of those sources is interrupted or runs out. A well-
functioning global market is a better solution.
“Security comes from diversity and diversity alone,” he said.
For Europe, being overly dependent on pipelines of Russian natural gas is the problem.
The EU meets about 10% of its demand for natural gas domestically, and all the rest is
imported, which makes it the largest importer of natural gas in the world, according to to
the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU.
Natural gas imported into the EU comes mainly from Russia (41%), Norway (24%) and
Algeria (11%).
In the short term, the European Union is looking to increase its imports of liquid natural
gas by tanker ship from the United States and Qatar, Victor said.
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Europe is “actually raising important imports from different countries. And by having
those imports available, that’s an option to them that improves security,” Victor said.
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Scaling up renewables takes time and political will
The EU has been reducing its dependence on coal to reach its climate goal of achieving
carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting emissions by at least 55% by 2030.
In 2020, the most recent year data is available for, 32% of the EU’s energy came from
oil and petroleum products, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European
Union. About 25% of the EU’s energy came from natural gas, 11% from solid fossil fuels,
13% from nuclear energy and 18% from renewables.
The focus on building out renewables is already significant, according to Aaron
Praktiknjo, head of the energy systems economics at the E.ON Energy Research Center
at RWTH Aachen University in Germany.
“I don’t think that the EU should be faulted for not ramping up renewables faster,”
Praktiknjo told CNBC. “Take Germany: In just about 20 years, the share of renewables
in electricity consumption has risen by a factor of about 10 from about 5% to 50%. At the
same time, electricity prices for final consumers have doubled mainly because of
subsidies for renewables.”
A draft of a government policy obtained by Reuters on Monday found German leaders
are looking to accelerate their transition to renewables, aiming to meet all its electricity
needs with supplies from renewable sources by 2035.
Transitioning the EU’s energy grid will take physical upgrades and international
coordination.
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
And also, it will require governmental intervention, a pill many current political regimes
don’t want to swallow, according to Sir David King, a former U.K. climate change official
who now chairs the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge University.
“Some governments, and the current British government is one of them, don’t like
regulatory behavior. We want to deregulate everything and allow the private sector to
operate on a free basis. You can’t get this transition without regulatory behavior,” said
King.
Lobbying from incumbent energy providers may contribute to the reluctance to regulate
the energy industry, King said.
“The United States has the biggest lobby system for the fossil fuel industry in the world,”
King told CNBC. “The power of the lobby system in the United States has influenced
other countries as well. So I think the incumbent is terrified of being put out of business.”
Another problem: Politicians don’t prioritize energy policy because many of their
constituents have more pressing concerns, said Benjamin K. Sovacool, a professor of
energy policy at the University of Sussex Business School.
“While energy costs seem large in total, they are still a small percentage of overall
household spending per month,” Sovacool told CNBC. “So, not as important a priority as
mortgages, or university fees, or paying for cars. We spend thousands of pounds or
euros on these every year, but only hundreds of pounds or euros on energy.”
Public surveys and polls have found that voters prioritize issues such as immigration,
Covid-19 response, military spending, health, and the war in Ukraine, above climate
policy and energy issues, according to Sovacool.
“And no politician wants to be seen to increase energy prices in the short-term by
investing in low-carbon alternates, even it pays for itself in the long-term, or benefits
society later,” Sovacool said.
Nuclear could be part of the solution
Nuclear energy production emits no greenhouse gases, but some constituents voice
concern about the potential for accidents and the lack of a permanent disposal repository
for nuclear waste, which is radioactive.
In a way, the Russia-Ukraine war will be like a Rorschach test for nuclear energy, Victor
told CNBC, as Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors, which the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) has been monitoring during the conflict.
“People who are worried about nuclear will see in all the agitations around the Ukrainian
nuclear complex in particular more reasons to be worried about nuclear,” Victor said.
“And people who see nuclear as a part of the overall strategy for dealing with emissions
and a way that that also reduces dependence on foreign suppliers are going to see in
this a logic for keeping nuclear plants open and for building new nuclear plants in
Europe.”
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Sentiment about nuclear is often hard to shift, and the current moment is no exception,
according to Victor. (He sees nuclear energy as an important part of decarbonization.)
Germany was getting about 25% of its electricity from nuclear energy until March
2011, according to the World Nuclear Association. Then German government passed a
law to phase out nuclear power following the Fukushima accident in Japan.
Now, high gas prices and a lack of sufficient energy “should motivate Germany to restart
its significant nuclear generation portfolio. Even if only in the short-run, this would help
buffer the shock,” Cicala told CNBC.
“The decisions to retire nukes were short-sighted and not enough consideration was
given to how the shortfall would be made up. But that would’ve been true even without
the risk of a supply interruption from Russia,” he said.
But Germany’s move is not necessarily a bellwether. The Czech Republic, France,
Poland and the U.K. are pursuing new nuclear reactors according to John Kotek at the
Nuclear Energy Institute. As Russia falls out of diplomatic favor, that gives American
nuclear companies a foot in the door for European customers, Kotek said.
Russia has been “one of the strongest competitors for nuclear export because they would
offer aggressive financing packages,” Kotek said. “Russia is really disqualifying itself
from many of the opportunities that are going to exist in the in the free world in the over
the coming decades because they’re just proving themselves to be an unreliable
partner.”
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
NewBase Energy News 04 March 2022 - Issue No. 1484 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC
area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the
NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor,
ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste
management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and
sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa
and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas
of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor
stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas
metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted
& finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance
agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing
for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in
numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is
the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400
popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy,
waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world.
Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22

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New base march 03 2022 energy news issue - 1491 by khaled al awadi

  • 1. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 03 March 2022 No. 1491 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE South Asian Nations Switch to Expensive Diesel Due to LNG Supply Crunch Bloomberg -Faseeh Mangi and Pakistan and Bangladesh are turning to expensive and dirty diesel fuel to generate electricity as the nations struggle to secure shipments of liquefied natural gas amid a supply crunch intensified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pakistan’s diesel-fired power generation rose to the highest level in at least seven years in January, while LNG-based output dipped to the lowest in almost two years, according to government data compiled by Arif Habib Ltd. The two fuels each generated about 7% of the South Asian country’s electricity in January. That’s bound to continue as Pakistan has failed to find replacement LNG cargoes after long-term supplies were forced to cancel deliveries. Revving Up Pakistan's diesel power generation rises to highest level in at least seven years
  • 2. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 “LNG supply looks tight at the moment and LNG prices were expected to remain elevated even before the invasion of Ukraine,” said Simon Nicholas, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “It’s likely Bangladesh and Pakistan will need to continue to use more diesel and oil in power generation.” Energy prices -- already elevated amid a supply-demand imbalance as the world recovers from the pandemic -- have surged following the invasion and sanctions on Russia in response. Higher costs pose a particular burden for developing economies, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, in their fight against climate change. The issue also highlights a growing problem with depending too much on LNG, which has suffered from a shortage as demand has largely outstripped supply over the last few years. It threatens to boost power costs across South Asia, increase government subsidies to support power payments and hurt the economic recovery in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Pakistan’s fuel costs doubled in January, compared with the same period a year ago, data from Arif Habib show. Diesel is the most expensive fuel for power generation in Pakistan, costing 14% more than fuel oil and 55% more than LNG-based generation, according to January data by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. Diesel use also comes as the nation’s refineries have been filled with fuel oil, meaning that there are other options for power, said Tahir Abbas, Arif Habib’s head of research. LNG Imports Liquefied natural gas imports into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are set to hit a low point in February due to unaffordable spot LNG prices, according to BloombergNEF. A total of 39 cargoes arrived in January, the lowest since February 2019. BloombergNEF estimates the share of spot
  • 3. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 volume in South Asia’s total LNG imports fell to just 18% of January supply, down from 25% in the previous month. Bangladesh’s LNG supply crunch started after a mooring line at Summit Group’s floating storage and regasification unit broke down in November, said Mohammad Hossain, director general of Power Cell, a unit of Bangladesh’s Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources. Bangladesh extended downtime for compressed natural gas stations. Pakistan’s growing gas shortage this winter forced residents to turn to cylinders in Karachi and authorities offered discounts to make users switch from gas to electricity for heating. The nation’s domestic gas production has fallen by about a fifth over the past two years, making LNG supply even more crucial. Diesel is used only when there are constraints and largely for system stability and restoration in instances of blackouts and outages, Pakistan’s energy ministry said in a response to questions. There is no requirement for diesel fuel for power generation until June, it said.
  • 4. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Saudi Arabia promotes sustainable living by setting up first EV plant Copyright: Arab News © 2022 All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info). Saudi Arabia has announced setting up its first electric vehicle manufacturing plant in the country as the government plans to ensure 30 percent of all vehicles in the capital city Riyadh run on electricity by 2030. This is yet another step toward promoting sustainable living in the Kingdom that has set out ambitious plans to diversify away from the oil economy under Vision 2030. The plant that will have a capacity to produce up to 150,000 electric vehicles every year will be set up by Lucid Group. The American firm recently signed a deal with the Saudi Ministry of Investment and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, allowing it to set up its first plant outside the US in Saudi Arabia. “Our strong relationships with the PIF and our partners at MISA, KAEC, and SIDF give us unique insight into the demand for luxury cars and SUVs in Saudi Arabia and beyond. We are thrilled to introduce the world’s most advanced electric vehicles to more global markets,” said Peter Rawlinson, CEO of Lucid Group. The Lucid plant is expected to unlock huge funds that the government plans to hand out as subsidies to promote sustainable projects undertaken by local and foreign firms, including PIF backed companies. “Building a plant in Saudi Arabia can provide access to government subsidies which should be in favor of the company’s success,” said Mohammed Al-Suwayed, CEO of Razeen Capital. The PIF, a major stakeholder in Lucid, is developing several giga-projects, many of which revolve around sustainability and environmentally friendly practices. Among these projects are NEOM, and the Red Sea project, which aim to limit the use of standard vehicles inside their destinations.
  • 5. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 “We are looking to find out ways to bring and operate and maintain electric vehicles and build EV grids in the destination,” said Najwa Hamzeh, senior smart destination director at TRSDC, in an exclusive interview with Arab News. She said many steps need to be undertaken to keep this move practical and sufficient, including finding enough maintenance facilities and EV charging points. “We are also looking to build the first vehicle maintenance facility and depot for EVs,” added Hamzeh. The imports of electric vehicles charging were permitted in 2020, in accordance with the specified procedures, said Saad Alkasabi, governor of Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization, or SASO. “The Kingdom started to study the technical, economic, and environmental details related to EV, its infrastructure, as well as the opportunities it offers to reduce environmental pollution,” he added, according to Argaam. The Public Investment Fund initially invested in Lucid Group in 2018, with its majority stake currently equating to $46 billion. The Lucid plant is expected to generate up to $3.4 billion in value for the company over the next 15 years. Establishing a factory for the Lucid company will contribute to achieving the fund’s objectives, including raising the proportion of local content to 60 percent in the fund and its subsidiaries by the end of 2025. The partnership between the PIF and Lucid Group is expected to provide training opportunities to Saudi youth, who can also enroll for the Lucid Company program that has graduated many specialists.
  • 6. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Oman plans to award oil and gas blocks to boost production Offshore Technology - By Archana Rani The Government of Oman is planning to award three oil and gas blocks this year to increase its exploration and production, reported Oman Daily Observer. The government is in negotiations to sign a commercial agreement for one of the blocks, Block 11. At a virtual meeting, Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals Under-Secretary Salim al Aufi said that the government is in negotiations with oil and gas firms Shell and TotalEnergies to sign a commercial agreement that will see the development of one of its blocks, namely Block 11. Al Aufi stated: “Discussions are ongoing now to finalise the commercial agreement between the government and the same [Block 10] partners for Block 11.” Block 11 is located adjacent to Block 10, which is expected to have peak production capacity of 0.5 standard cubic feet of gas per day (bscf/d). Planned to start production in two years, the gas- rich Block 10 was awarded to Shell and its partners in December 2021. Shell holds a 53.45% stake in Block 10 while partners Oman’s national petroleum investment company OQ and Marsa Liquefied Natural Gas own 13.36% and 33.19% interests, respectively. Marsa Liquefied Natural Gas is a joint venture of OQ and France’s TotalEnergies. Al Aufi added: “We have three blocks in the market. We are just waiting for the final bids to arrive. I think last day is March 31 of this year, then we will start looking into evaluating the bids and hopefully allocating some of these blocks.” According to National Center for Statistics and Information, Oman’s total natural gas production and imports was 46.05 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the first 11 months of 2021. This marks an increase compared with 42.186bcm in November 2020.
  • 7. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Iraq pumped well below OPEC+ oil quota in Feb.22, data shows Reuters - Rowena Edwards Iraq pumped 4.18 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in February, 150,000 bpd short of its allowance under a deal with other OPEC+ producers, data from state-owned marketer SOMO seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday. Output rose by just 13,000 bpd from January, the SOMO data showed, as like several other OPEC members, Iraq struggles to pump more oil at a time of already tight global supply, rising demand and soaring prices. Brent crude futures touched a peak of $113 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since June 2014. Upgrade work at its Gulf ports, which went on for most of 2021 and are scheduled to be finished in the second quarter, have prevented Iraq from pumping larger volumes. Iraq has also temporarily halted more than a tenth of its oil output due to maintenance and protests. Outages come from the 400,000 bpd West Qurna 2 oilfield and the 80,000 bpd Nassiriya oil field. read more The country was forced to dip into crude stocks last month, which fell by an average 79,000 b/d from January, the SOMO data showed. This includes stocks in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Iraq's undersupply meant its compliance with the OPEC+ pact stood at 146% last month, the SOMO figures showed. OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, uses an average of secondary source production figures to determine compliance. OPEC pumped 28.39 million bpd in February, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, up 420,000 bpd from January and above the 254,000 bpd increase called for under the deal. However, the 10 OPEC members are still pumping less than called for under the deal and OPEC compliance with pledged cuts was 136%, the survey found, versus 132% in January. OPEC+ oil producers are scheduled to meet on Wednesday. The group would likely agree on another 400,000 bpd increase for April, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
  • 8. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 U.K: Mocean Energy build wave energy device for O&G sector Offshore Energy - Amir Garanovic Scottish company Mocean Energy has secured €875,000 to accelerate the commercial roll-out of its wave energy technology and drive its adoption in offshore oil and gas sector. Cameron McNatt with Blue X wave energy prototype (Courtesy of Mocean Energy) Mocean Energy has raised a little over €875,000 equity funding from existing funders, led by angel syndicate Equity Gap, together with Old College Capital, the University of Edinburgh’s in-house venture investment fund, and Scottish Enterprise. The new funds will enable the company to advance the design of its next-generation Blue Star wave machine and drive its adoption in subsea oil and gas, Mocean Energy said. Last year, the company successfully trialed its Blue X prototype at sea at the European Wave Energy Centre (EMEC) in Orkney, and is currently collaborating with partners to advance a demonstrator project, called ‘Renewables for Subsea Power’. The project is expected to show how Mocean Energy’s technology can be coupled with underwater energy storage to provide reliable low carbon power to subsea equipment and autonomous underwater vehicles. According to Mocean Energy, the plans are in place to test the system at sea later in 2022. Commenting on the new funds, Mocean Energy’s managing director Cameron McNatt said: “The equity funding is a tremendous boost and will allow us to accelerate our product roll out. “This year we’ll start fabricating Blue Star 10 – a 10kW machine based around the Blue X design which will begin commercial trails in 2023.
  • 9. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 “In parallel we are developing our next-generation Blue Star 20, a 20kW machine based on a new optimized geometry, which will include solar panels and a novel direct drive generator, with trials and rollout targeted for 2024-25. “Both products are aimed at opportunities in the oil and gas energy transition, defense, offshore wind, and ocean science markets where they can be used to provide power to remote subsea equipment, robotics, and monitoring systems.” Mocean Energy has seen increasing interest from the oil and gas sector and has opened a dedicated office in Aberdeen to meet customer demand, while the firm’s staff has grown to 17. The new funds follow a €1.03 million seed raise which was completed in 2020, comprising €735,000 equity funding plus €300,000 grant from Innovate UK, the UK Government’s innovation agency. Mocean Energy’s Blue Star wave energy device powering subsea assets (Courtesy of Mocean Energy) Kerry Sharp, director of growth investments at Scottish Enterprise, said: “Bold and ambitious low- carbon technology companies like Mocean Energy are fundamental to Scotland’s just transition to a net-zero emission economy. “Scottish Enterprise is pleased that our ongoing support to the team at Mocean is helping them to scale up and explore their international aspirations, and we hope this most recent investment will see Mocean move ever closer to fully commercializing their innovative wave power technology.” To remind, last year, a consortium comprising Mocean Energy, Verlume, Harbour Energy and Baker Hughes with funding from Net Zero Technology Centre – formerly known as OGTC – invested €1.9 million into a program to develop a wave power and energy storage system for subsea operations.
  • 10. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase March 03-2022 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Brent touches nine-year high, supply issues roil oil markets Reuters + NewBase Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $118 a barrel as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries, while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows. Brent crude futures rose as high as $118.22 a barrel, the highest since February 2013. The contract was at $116.60 a barrel, up $3.67, or 3.2%, by 0415 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude hit an 11-year high of $114.70 a barrel and was at $113.01 a barrel, up $2.41, or 2.2%. The gains followed the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil refining sector that raised concerns that Russian oil and gas exports could be targeted next. read more So far, Washington has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports as the Biden administration weighs the impacts on global oil markets and U.S. energy prices. read more "They may be saying that, but global financial institutions are doing the heavy lifting and blanket banning anything with Russia written on the documentation," OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley said. "I think as long as the West holds its nerve, oil will still go higher." Australia's ANZ raised its short-term target for oil to $125 a barrel, adding that supply shortages could see further upside. Russia is the world's No. 3 oil producer and the largest exporter of oil to global markets, according to the International Energy Agency. Russian crude and oil products exports reached 7.8 million barrels per day in December, the agency said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude. read more "OPEC+ essentially punted on sending any production signals to calm the runaway oil market, rolling over the 400 kb/d production increase in record time," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note. Oil price special coverage
  • 11. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 "While some remain transfixed with the idea that an Iran agreement will provide much needed relief, we again caution that the deal is still not done and the sums entailed would simply be too small to backfill a major Russian disruption." The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Tehran on Saturday, Iranian news agency Nournews reported, suggesting this could help pave the way to a revival of Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement with major powers. read more Meanwhile, U.S. oil inventories continued to decline. Tanks at the key Cushing, Oklahoma crude hub were at their lowest since 2018, while U.S. strategic reserves dropped to a near 20-year low - and that was before another release announced by the White House on Tuesday in tandem with other industrialised nations. Why $100 oil could hurt the energy transition more than it helps By Timothy Gardner The surge in crude oil prices past $100 a barrel has raised a big question: Will this latest spike in the notoriously volatile oil market help to speed the global transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources to fight climate change? The answer is probably not. On the one hand, energy analysts say, soaring prices for gasoline, diesel and other products made from crude oil will drive cost-conscious consumers more quickly into electric vehicles and boost investment in competing clean technologies like hydrogen. But at the same time, these high prices will also drive more drilling of oil and gas around the globe, as fossil fuel companies rush to cash in, sowing the seeds for the boom to turn to bust. That will make oil abundant and affordable again. That is a pattern that the world has seen repeatedly in the oil age, and one that has punished clean energy investors harshly in the past. Here are some of the arguments on either side of the debate: CONSUMER SHIFT When fossil fuel prices rise, consumers start to take electric vehicles and clean energy alternatives more seriously – not just for their environmental benefits but in hopes of eventually saving cash. It is a scenario that played out after oil nearly broke $150 a barrel in 2008, giving a boost to electric vehicle sales. Global sales of electric vehicles are growing, particularly in China and Europe, and to a lesser extent, the United States. And the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the industrialized world's energy watchdog, has said rising oil prices could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and also accelerate the transition to renewable power sources like solar and wind, whose costs have dropped in recent years.
  • 12. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 But at the same time, sales of gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles in 2021, a year of steadily rising oil prices, were on track to hit 45% of global car sales, which would set a record in both volume and market share, according to the IEA. That SUV demand canceled out the efficiency gains of EVs and has raised questions about the degree to which high oil prices influence the transition. Analysts also point out that cars and trucks only burn about 20-25% of the world's petroleum, with other sectors such as manufacturing, marine transport, aviation and agriculture making very few gains in fuel efficiency. "We have not seen any sign of energy transition yet," in those sectors, said Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy. HIGH PRICES SPUR DRILLING There is another dynamic at play. For decades oil has been caught in a boom and bust cycle: High prices spur investment in oil and gas drilling which, in turn, leads to lower prices that increase demand for oil. There is little reason to think this time would be any different. In the United States, for example, the world's largest oil producer, drillers are already preparing to boost output. U.S. oil production is expected to soar next year to an all-time high above the 2019 record of 12.25 million barrels per day before peaking at 13.88 million bpd in 2034, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. High prices would only accelerate this trend, not slow it. Most of the world's oil reserves, meanwhile, about 65%, are controlled by national oil companies fully or partially owned by state governments. The governments of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Iraq all quickly get richer when oil prices rise because they are among the world's lowest cost producers of crude, a trend researchers say deepens commitments to the petro-economy. "High oil prices prolong the idea even with the most high-cost producers among the national oil companies that they can survive the energy transition, rather than work on pivoting away from oil into clean energy," said Paasha Mahdavi, a political science professor at University of California, Santa Barbara. They also reinforce the notion that reinvesting the society's wealth in oil is "optimal for balancing government budgets today and in the future," he said. There is some nuance, though: Saudi Arabia, for example, is leading an effort to generate hydrogen produced with green energy like wind and solar at its mega city of the future NEOM, a project that it is funding with petrodollars. "Higher oil prices do allow low cost petro states to continue making investments in some of these decarbonized solutions, but only among this small group," said Mahdavi. VOLATILITY KILLS COMPETITION This tendency to meet high prices with increased supply leads to another problem for clean energy: volatility. Rapid swings in prices make it hard for investors to plan and can even kill some alternative energy projects, said Deborah Gordon, who leads the oil and gas solutions initiative at RMI, a Colorado- based research group on energy innovation and efficiency. "The much bigger risk for the energy transition is volatility," Gordon said. "It's not high prices or low prices, it's this ongoing shift."
  • 13. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Special Coverage The Energy world –March -04 -2022 Russia’s war with Ukraine offers critical lessons for global energy markets Catherine Clifford@IN/CATCLIFFORD/@CATCLIFFORD KEY POINTS  The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas show that a diversification of energy supplies is critical to establishing energy security.  At the same time, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report out on Monday notes that coal and fossil fuels are “choking humanity.”  The confluence of these events spotlight a few key points about current global energy markets. A solar energy field stands next to the Lippendorf coal-fired power plant on May 10, 2021 in Lippendorf, Germany. The Ukrainian people are bearing the heaviest weight of the war they are fighting with Russia, but the war has had grave consequences for global energy markets as well.T he European Union relies on Russian natural gas, and that dependence has forced the United States and Europe to, so far, maintain loopholes in their otherwise tough economic sanctions on Russia.
  • 14. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 On Wednesday, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki indicated the Biden administration was considering energy sanctions on Russia, but that’s a very tough call in the face of high oil prices in both the U.S. and Europe. The Russian-Ukrainian war is one wrench in global energy markets, and another is climate change. As Monday’s highly anticipated report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made urgently and desperately clear, global warming is an urgent threat to human welfare. “Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone – now. Many ecosystems are at the point of no return – now,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday. “Unchecked carbon pollution is forcing the world’s most vulnerable on a frog march to destruction – now.” Teetering on this precipice with climate change while simultaneously surviving the Russian and Ukraine war is generating a new framework for understanding the global energy markets. Energy independence is not the same as energy security A nation’s national energy policy is a cornerstone of its national security policy. In Europe’s case, “it was staggeringly irresponsible to outsource gas storage to Gazprom,” said Steve Cicala from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Cicala focuses on the economics of regulation, and specifically on environmental and energy policy. Gazprom is the Russian energy giant that’s majority owned by the state. Going forward, the EU “should be moving at the maximum possible speed to get themselves off of Russian gas,” Cicala said. That does not mean energy independence is the benchmark. “The goal is security,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at UC San Diego. “And security is not the same thing as independence.” Energy independence means relying on national or local sources of energy. But even there, flexibility is limited if one of those sources is interrupted or runs out. A well- functioning global market is a better solution. “Security comes from diversity and diversity alone,” he said. For Europe, being overly dependent on pipelines of Russian natural gas is the problem. The EU meets about 10% of its demand for natural gas domestically, and all the rest is imported, which makes it the largest importer of natural gas in the world, according to to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU. Natural gas imported into the EU comes mainly from Russia (41%), Norway (24%) and Algeria (11%). In the short term, the European Union is looking to increase its imports of liquid natural gas by tanker ship from the United States and Qatar, Victor said.
  • 15. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Europe is “actually raising important imports from different countries. And by having those imports available, that’s an option to them that improves security,” Victor said.
  • 16. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Scaling up renewables takes time and political will The EU has been reducing its dependence on coal to reach its climate goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting emissions by at least 55% by 2030. In 2020, the most recent year data is available for, 32% of the EU’s energy came from oil and petroleum products, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. About 25% of the EU’s energy came from natural gas, 11% from solid fossil fuels, 13% from nuclear energy and 18% from renewables. The focus on building out renewables is already significant, according to Aaron Praktiknjo, head of the energy systems economics at the E.ON Energy Research Center at RWTH Aachen University in Germany. “I don’t think that the EU should be faulted for not ramping up renewables faster,” Praktiknjo told CNBC. “Take Germany: In just about 20 years, the share of renewables in electricity consumption has risen by a factor of about 10 from about 5% to 50%. At the same time, electricity prices for final consumers have doubled mainly because of subsidies for renewables.” A draft of a government policy obtained by Reuters on Monday found German leaders are looking to accelerate their transition to renewables, aiming to meet all its electricity needs with supplies from renewable sources by 2035. Transitioning the EU’s energy grid will take physical upgrades and international coordination.
  • 17. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 And also, it will require governmental intervention, a pill many current political regimes don’t want to swallow, according to Sir David King, a former U.K. climate change official who now chairs the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge University. “Some governments, and the current British government is one of them, don’t like regulatory behavior. We want to deregulate everything and allow the private sector to operate on a free basis. You can’t get this transition without regulatory behavior,” said King. Lobbying from incumbent energy providers may contribute to the reluctance to regulate the energy industry, King said. “The United States has the biggest lobby system for the fossil fuel industry in the world,” King told CNBC. “The power of the lobby system in the United States has influenced other countries as well. So I think the incumbent is terrified of being put out of business.” Another problem: Politicians don’t prioritize energy policy because many of their constituents have more pressing concerns, said Benjamin K. Sovacool, a professor of energy policy at the University of Sussex Business School. “While energy costs seem large in total, they are still a small percentage of overall household spending per month,” Sovacool told CNBC. “So, not as important a priority as mortgages, or university fees, or paying for cars. We spend thousands of pounds or euros on these every year, but only hundreds of pounds or euros on energy.” Public surveys and polls have found that voters prioritize issues such as immigration, Covid-19 response, military spending, health, and the war in Ukraine, above climate policy and energy issues, according to Sovacool. “And no politician wants to be seen to increase energy prices in the short-term by investing in low-carbon alternates, even it pays for itself in the long-term, or benefits society later,” Sovacool said. Nuclear could be part of the solution Nuclear energy production emits no greenhouse gases, but some constituents voice concern about the potential for accidents and the lack of a permanent disposal repository for nuclear waste, which is radioactive. In a way, the Russia-Ukraine war will be like a Rorschach test for nuclear energy, Victor told CNBC, as Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors, which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been monitoring during the conflict. “People who are worried about nuclear will see in all the agitations around the Ukrainian nuclear complex in particular more reasons to be worried about nuclear,” Victor said. “And people who see nuclear as a part of the overall strategy for dealing with emissions and a way that that also reduces dependence on foreign suppliers are going to see in this a logic for keeping nuclear plants open and for building new nuclear plants in Europe.”
  • 18. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Sentiment about nuclear is often hard to shift, and the current moment is no exception, according to Victor. (He sees nuclear energy as an important part of decarbonization.) Germany was getting about 25% of its electricity from nuclear energy until March 2011, according to the World Nuclear Association. Then German government passed a law to phase out nuclear power following the Fukushima accident in Japan. Now, high gas prices and a lack of sufficient energy “should motivate Germany to restart its significant nuclear generation portfolio. Even if only in the short-run, this would help buffer the shock,” Cicala told CNBC. “The decisions to retire nukes were short-sighted and not enough consideration was given to how the shortfall would be made up. But that would’ve been true even without the risk of a supply interruption from Russia,” he said. But Germany’s move is not necessarily a bellwether. The Czech Republic, France, Poland and the U.K. are pursuing new nuclear reactors according to John Kotek at the Nuclear Energy Institute. As Russia falls out of diplomatic favor, that gives American nuclear companies a foot in the door for European customers, Kotek said. Russia has been “one of the strongest competitors for nuclear export because they would offer aggressive financing packages,” Kotek said. “Russia is really disqualifying itself from many of the opportunities that are going to exist in the in the free world in the over the coming decades because they’re just proving themselves to be an unreliable partner.”
  • 19. Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase Energy News 04 March 2022 - Issue No. 1484 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S. Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
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