New base february 22 2022 energy news issue - 1489 by khaled al awadi-compressed

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NewBase Energy News 22 February 2022 No. 1489 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E: Trackers to boost production by 30% at MBR Solar Park
Copyright © 2022 Khaleej Times. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
The latest solar tracking technology deployed at Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar
Park will boost production capacity by up to 30 per cent, a top official associated with the project
said.
The 900MW fifth phase of the solar park uses photovoltaic bifacial technology, which allows solar
radiation to reach the front and back of the panels, thereby collecting sunlight from both sides
instead of one. This combined with new software that integrates artificial intelligence and machine
learning, enables panels to harvest more energy by solving for shading and diffused light conditions
that can reduce energy production.
The technology uses machine learning and advanced sensors to maximise performance
Photo for illustrative purpose only. Researchers from DEWA R&D Centre at the Mohammed bin
Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park have published 40 papers in international scientific conferences and
journals, enriching the scientific community with innovative solutions. Image courtesy Dubai Media
Office Twitter handle. Image used for illustrative purpose.

“Innovation in algorithmic solar tracking systems and machine learning software enable solar panels
to literally follow the sun and optimise performance,” Hans Sauter, vice-president (Mena),
Nextracker – the project’s solar tracking technology and solution provider, told Khaleej Times.
The technology known as TrueCapture, uses machine learning and advanced sensors to maximise
performance for efficient energy capture, storage and transmission. TrueCapture complements
additional yield generation from ground-reflected light on the rear of the bifacial solar panels.
“These innovations have helped new solar plants achieve up to 99 per cent efficiency ratings, with
machine learning accounting for an increase in efficiency of up to 6 per cent.”
Sauter noted the increase in efficiency has directly correlated to a dramatic decrease in the cost of
energy production.
“In the past 5 years, innovation in technology, plant design and storage has driven the cost of solar
from $0.05 to $0.0135 per kilowatt-hour. That’s nearly 75 per cent reduction in energy production
costs and a fraction the cost of fossil power production.”
Implemented by Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) using the Independent Power
Producer (IPP) model, the solar park is the largest single-site solar park in the world with a planned
total capacity of 5,000MW by 2030. The fifth phase is projected to provide clean energy to over
270,000 residences in Dubai. Sauter noted that the gains made by the use of innovative technology
will be enough to power more than 96,000 additional houses.
“The addition of Nextracker’s technology to phase five of the park will boost its production by 20 to
30 per cent more than a fixed tilt installation, and a further 1.02 per cent gain over competitors’
tracking solutions. This gain delivered by Nextracker is enough to power 96,060 additional Dubai
residences,” said Sauter, making a comparison with immobile single-panel PV modules.
Also, featured in the fifth phase is Nextracker’s robotic cleaning systems, which ensures maximum
performance of the plant.
Nextracker opened its regional headquarters in Dubai this year and currently has approximately
3GW of solar power production under fulfillment or operational in the Middle East, Turkey and India
and is expanding in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and across the region.
“Today solar energy represents 94 per cent of the current installed capacity of renewable energy
across all GCC countries, with most of that coming from large utility-scale solar PV projects. Solar
also represents 91 per cent of the potential power generation currently in the pipeline in the GCC,”
he added.

MENA: Energy investments in continue to grow: Apicorp
TradeArabia News Service + NewBAse
Energy investments in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) are forecast to grow in 2022 from $805
billion and continue in the next five years on the strength of higher oil and gas prices and planned
unconventional gas and upstream investments.
For petrochemicals, the drive for further integration and rationalisation will continue with
reconfigurable petrochemical plants shifting to high-margin products such as plastic packaging films
and healthcare and hygiene products, The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp), a
multilateral development financial institution, said in its annual Top Picks 2022 outlook on the key
trends that are expected to shape the Mena energy markets landscape this year.
“The strong pipeline of investments we are seeing in the downstream projects reflects the region’s
push to direct more funds to this sector, especially in brownfield petrochemicals projects versus
greenfield ones. This makes sense in light of the current market conditions which favor improving
cost and operating efficiencies in existing projects rather than sheer expansion,” said Nicolas
Thevenot, Managing Director of Corporate Banking at Apicorp.
As for the energy markets, the report forecasts that they will remain
comparatively stable during 2022 due to higher oil production by
Opec+ and non-Opec countries and increased gas production and
LNG supply. Brent is expected to average between $65/bbl. and
$75/bbl. As for gas, the JKM and TTF/NBP hub prices in Asia and
Europe are expected to cool down considerably from their all-time
highs of 2021, especially after the winter season.
Meanwhile, the uptick in regional energy investments, which
registered a modest $13 billion increase in Apicorp’s latest five-year outlook, will continue over the
mid-term on the strength of higher oil and gas prices throughout 2022.
Among the trends the report examines is the impact of oil and gas prices on energy investments in
the region and the main factors weighing down on broader economic recovery.
“Despite the volatility in commodity
prices which is expected to persist
throughout 2022, the good news in
the short-term is that oil and gas
prices will likely remain elevated
throughout the year, providing
support for energy investments
including renewable energy and
ESG-related projects.
Power sector investments in Mena
are also expected to continue to
thrive, with an accelerating shift
towards renewables. Collectively,
the region is expected to add nearly 20 GW of solar power over the next five years,” noted Dr Ahmed
Ali Attiga, CEO of Apicorp.

The Mena region will take centre stage in the ongoing global energy transition as all eyes shift to
Egypt, which will host COP27 in November -- and UAE for COP28 in 2023. Yet while the transition
continues to steadily gain momentum, the report notes that it may be marred by mixed policy signals
from governments as they attempt to balance imperatives which are oftentimes very difficult to align:
emissions reduction, energy affordability and energy security.
Thus, a sustainable and comprehensive policy is needed in order to avoid tilting the policy scale too
far towards in favor of one of these factors, as this may lead to unintended consequences such as
market distortions, heightened volatility, and energy shortfalls.
The already substantial
pressure on
policymakers is
expected to be further
exacerbated by
continued volatility in
commodity markets in
2022 due to the
pandemic, uncertainty
over macroeconomic
policy, and supply chain
disruptions. Despite the
modest –-albeit
uneven—recovery in
2021, it will take time for
this improvement to
migrate downstream and
ease cost pressures this
year.
The report’s analysis of energy investment trends suggests that the expected robust oil and gas
prices in 2022 have triggered an opportunity to return to pre-pandemic activity.
The uncertainty around Covid recovery will continue to influence how market dynamics will
ultimately play out. Given the global vaccine inequity and a constantly evolving virus, governments
are still grappling with the dilemma of public health versus economic recovery.
In addition to global trade, supply chains and services, the current surge in cases globally will also
adversely affect international travel and tourism. This will dent economic growth during 2022, which
has already prompted a slight downward revision of the 2022 GDP growth forecasts in some regions
and a likely asymmetric global recovery that is not necessarily sustainable for all countries.
Another uncertainty stems from the need for governments to introduce fiscal austerity measures to
rein in spending and curb soaring inflation. Although markets ended 2021 with high returns (27% in
the case of the S&P 500 index), high jobs growth and soaring commodity prices pushed inflation
rates higher.
A fear of stagflation looms as public fiscal stimulus packages are withdrawn, asset purchasing
programs are tapered and interest rates rise. While these measures will very likely cause economic
recovery to slow down, the lagging unemployment rates are expected to remain relatively high amid
a simmering inflationary cycle that may turn out not to be transitory after all.

Libya's NOC announces opening of Tahara oilfield
Reuters + NewBase
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corp (NOC) announced on Monday the opening of a new oilfield
named Tahara and said it should eventually produce 14,000 barrels of oil and 6 million cubic feet of
natural gas per day.
The field is being operated by Arabian Gulf Oil Co (AGOCO), a subsidiary of the NOC, in the
Hamada area of western Libya.
In a statement, AGOCO did not specify when it would ramp up production, but said the field might
be able to produce higher output of 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with additional wells.
Libya is exempt from production limits agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and allies (OPEC+) as the country struggles to recover from years of instability. Early this
month, the NOC said port closures had reduced Libya's output by 100,000 bpd and the country's
total production was 1.1 million bpd.
Last month, NOC Chairman
Mustafa Sanalla told a news
conference in Tripoli the country
aimed to keep oil output at 1.2
million barrels per day (bpd) in
2022. He said at the time Libya
planned to bring two new fields
onstream this year, adding in total
nearly 18,000 bpd of capacity. It
was not immediately clear whether
Tahara was one of those fields.

India: TATA Power & RWE to scope offshore wind projects in India
CNBC - Anmar Frangoul + NewBase
KEY POINTS
 While India has a well-developed onshore wind sector, there are no operational offshore wind
farms in its waters.
 Authorities there have said they want 30 gigawatts of offshore wind installations by the year
2030.
 In a speech last week, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the energy requirements
of the country’s population were “expected to nearly double in the next twenty years.”
German energy giant RWE and India’s Tata Power on Monday announced a collaboration that will
focus on developing offshore wind projects in India.
The firms said a memorandum of understanding relating to the plans had been signed by RWE
Renewables GmbH and Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited.
“India has excellent wind resources, which can help to meet the country’s increasing energy
demands,” Sven Utermöhlen, RWE Renewables’ CEO for offshore wind, said in a statement.
“If clear regulations and an effective tender scheme are in place, we expect India’s offshore wind
industry will gain a real momentum,” he said.
According to India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, the country is home to roughly 7,600
kilometers of coastline. While India has a well-developed onshore wind sector, there are no
operational offshore wind farms in its waters. Authorities there have said they want 30 gigawatts of
offshore wind installations by the year 2030.
“The Indian Government is in the process of conducting detailed technical studies and devising the
regulatory framework to establish the first auctions for offshore wind of the coast of Tamil Nadu and
Gujarat,” RWE and Tata Power said.
The firms added they would undertake technical and commercial site assessments in order to
“facilitate the establishment of an offshore wind market.” They will also look to evaluate India’s
supply chain for offshore wind and crucial infrastructure including ports and grid connections.
India’s MNRE says it wants the installed capacity of “non-fossil fuels” to hit 500 GW by 2030. Despite
this lofty target, the country remains reliant on fossil fuels. As of Dec. 31, fossil fuels’ share of India’s
total installed generation capacity stood at 59.8%, according to the Ministry of Power.

At last year’s COP26 climate change summit, India and China, both among the world’s biggest
burners of coal, insisted on a last-minute change of fossil fuel language in the Glasgow Climate
Pact — from a “phase out” of coal to a “phase down.” After initial objections, opposing countries
ultimately conceded.
In a speech delivered to The Energy and Resources Institute’s World Sustainable Development
Summit last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he firmly believed that “environmental
sustainability can only be achieved through climate justice.”
“Energy requirements of the people of India are expected to nearly double in the next twenty years,”
Modi said. “Denying this energy would be denying life itself to millions. Successful climate actions
also need adequate financing.”
He added: “For this, developed countries need to fulfil their commitments on finance and technology
transfer.”
India’s Clean Energy Targets
India aims to achieve 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewables by 2022. Prime Minister Modi
reaffirmed India’s goal to achieve this target during U.N. New York Climate Week in September.
Prime Minister Modi also announced, “India further commits to increase its renewable energy
capacity to 450 GW.” While the timing is unclear, recent government reports indicate 2030 as the
target year for the 450 GW target.
India’s current electric grid-size is around 362 GW. Renewable energy capacity, at 82.5 GW, is 23%
of total installed electricity capacity. According to the Central Electricity Authority, Non-fossil fuel
installed electricity capacity, which includes large hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy, is 38%—
two percent short of the 40% of non-fossil fuels by 2030, NDC target.
Source: Central Electricity Authority, All India Installed Capacity of Power Stations, August 2019 (for
coal, natural gas, diesel, hydro, and nuclear); Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, September
2019 for Renewable Energy

India plans to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022 through 100 GW of solar, 60 GW of
wind, 5 GW of small hydro, and 10 GW of biomass-based power. At 82.5 GW of installed renewable
capacity as of September 2019, India is nearly halfway to meeting its 2022 target.
However, India’s renewable energy market has slowed this year. Challenges—import duties on
solar panels, land availability issues, slow development of electricity evacuation infrastructure,
uncertainty of power purchase agreements, and artificially low ceilings on solar tenders—are
dampening market progress.
The national government is working with stakeholders to get the market back on track. Currently,
around 31.1 GW of renewable capacity is under various stages of construction, and another 39 GW
likely to be constructed by 2021 is in the biding stage. Based on these projects, it is likely that India’s
175 GW by 2022 may be extended.
Future Growth
The recent 450 GW of renewable energy capacity, likely by 2030, signals a huge increase in
ambition. It is over five times of India’s current renewable capacity (82.5 GW) and more than India’s
total installed electricity capacity from all sources (362 GW). Prime Minister Modi’s announcement
is also consistent with statements made by senior government officials indicating higher renewable
energy targets.
Government reports are also charting future clean energy growth. The Central Electricity Authority
(CEA)’s National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2018 had already projected a higher share of renewables
(44%) compared to coal (38%) in 2027.
CEA’s draft report on Optimal Generation Capacity Mix for 2029-30 finds that if the 450 GW of
renewables target is met, renewable energy will for 54%—over half—of India’s installed electricity
capacity in 2030. Whereas total non-fossil fuel (which includes large hydro, nuclear, solar, wind,
and biomass) will have a 65% share—this is 25% more that India’s commitment in Paris.

Asia: Who are the Asian buyers of Russian oil, gas and coal
Reuters + NewBase
As the Ukraine-Russia crisis intensifies, Brent crude futures have hit fresh seven-year highs as
analysts warn trade sanctions may have implications for Asian countries dependent on Russia for
oil, gas and coal.
Below are details on how Asian countries rely on oil, gas and coal from Russia. CHINA
China accounts for 15.4% of Russia’s total crude oil exports, with only Saudi Arabia selling it more.
China’s Russian crude oil buying averaged 1.59 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, or 15.5% of
its total imports.
China receives about 40% of this via the 4,070-km (2,540-mile) East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO)
pipeline.
Russia is also China’s No. 3 gas supplier. China accounted for 6.7% of Russian natural gas exports
in 2021. Russian exports to China totalled 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), or about 12.07 million
tonnes in 2021, meeting roughly 5% of China’s demand.
Russia was also China’s No. 2 coal supplier in 2021. China imported 15.25 million tonnes, or 4.72%
of its total coal imports, from Russia in 2021, customs data showed. SOUTH KOREA

Russia was South Korea’s fourth-largest crude oil supplier in 2021 after Saudi Arabia, the United
States and Kuwait. South Korea imported about 7.92 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia last
year, worth about $4.27 billion, data from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) showed.
South Korea also imported 2.87 million tonnes of gas from Russia last year, the KITA data showed,
making it the country’s sixth-largest supplier.
Russia was the second-largest coal exporter to South Korea in 2021 after Australia, shipping 21.95
million tonnes worth about $2.56 billion and accounting for 17.5% of South Korea’s total coal
imports, the data showed.
JAPAN
Russia was Japan’s second-biggest supplier of thermal coal in 2021, making up 12.48% of its
thermal coal imports, Japanese customs data showed. Russia was Japan’s fifth-biggest supplier
of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2021, accounting for 3.63% and 8.84% of its total
imports, respectively.
Japan accounted for 4.1% of Russia’s crude oil exports and 7.2% of its natural gas exports.
VIETNAM
Russia was the third-largest coal exporter to Vietnam in 2021, after Australia and Indonesia. Its coal
exports to Vietnam totalled 3.59 million tonnes in 2021, accounting for 9.9% of Vietnam’s total coal
imports, Vietnam customs data showed.
The country did not import crude oil from Russia in 2021, but Vietnam’s state oil firm PetroVietnam
has a 49% stake in an oil joint venture (Rusvietpetro) with Zarubezhneft in Russia’s Nenets
Autonomous Region, which had produced 30 million tonnes of crude oil as of mid-2021 since its
establishment in 2008.
INDIA
India imported 1.8 million tonnes of thermal coal from Russia in 2021, down from 2.5 million in 2020,
data from Iman Resources showed. Russia’s share in India’s thermal coal imports fell to 1.3% in
2021 from 1.6%.
India imported 43,400 bpd oil from Russia in 2021, about 1% of overall its imports. India accounts
for about 0.2% Russia’s natural gas exports. GAIL (India) Ltd has a 20-year deal with Gazprom to
buy 2.5 million tonnes of LNG a year which started in 2018.

U.S. EIA expects petroleum trade to shift to net imports during 2022
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), February 2022
In 2021, the United States returned to importing more petroleum (which includes crude oil, refined
petroleum products, and other liquids) than it exports following its historic shift to being a net
exporter of petroleum in 2020. According to our February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO),
we expect net crude oil imports to increase, making the United States a net importer of petroleum
in 2022.
A country is a net importer if it imports more of a commodity than it exports. Conversely, a country
is a net exporter if it exports more of a commodity than it imports. Many factors affect net trade
numbers because trade reflects supply and demand conditions both domestically and
internationally.
Historically, the United States has been a net importer of petroleum. During 2020, COVID-19
mitigation efforts caused a drop in oil demand within the United States and internationally.
International petroleum prices decreased in response to less consumption, which diminished
incentives for key petroleum-exporting countries to increase production. This shift allowed the
United States to export more petroleum in 2020 than it had in the past.
Also in 2020, the difference between U.S. crude oil imports and exports fell to its lowest point since
at least 1985.

Net crude oil imports subsequently rose by 19% in 2021 to an average of 3.2 million barrels per day
(b/d) as crude oil consumption increased in response to rising economic activity.
We forecast that the United States will continue to import more crude oil than it exports in 2022,
reaching an estimated annual average of 3.9 million b/d. However, we expect net imports to fall to
3.4 million b/d in 2023.
We expect the United States to import less crude oil than it exports in 2023 because we expect
domestic crude oil production will increase to an all-time high of 12.6 million b/d.
Since 2010, the United States has exported more refined petroleum products, including distillate
fuel oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and motor gasoline, among others, than it has imported.
Net exports of refined petroleum products grew to 3.3 million b/d in 2020 and remained about the
same in 2021. We expect petroleum product net exports will reach new highs of 3.6 million b/d in
2022 and 3.8 million b/d in 2023.
U.S. marketed natural gas production forecast to rise in 2022 and 2023
We forecast that U.S. natural gas marketed production will increase to an average of 104.4 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022 and then further increase to a record-high 106.6 Bcf/d in 2023,
according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Around 97% of production over the next two years will come from the Lower 48 states (L48),
excluding the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The other 3% will come from Alaska and the
GOM.
We estimate that the wholesale spot price of natural gas at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will
average $3.92 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022, an eight-year high, and will average

$3.60/MMBtu throughout 2023. We expect these elevated prices will drive continued increases in
U.S. drilling activity and natural gas production.
We forecast that legacy production—production from wells drilled before December 2021—in the
L48 will average 83.2 Bcf/d in 2022 and fall 21% to 65.9 Bcf/d in 2023. However, production from
new wells will contribute 18.1 Bcf/d in 2022 and increase to 37.8 Bcf/d in 2023, offsetting declining
production from legacy wells and bringing total L48 marketed gas production to 103.7 Bcf/d in 2023.
U.S. natural gas production growth will primarily come from the Appalachia region in the Northeast,
the Permian region in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and the Haynesville region in
Texas and Louisiana.
Haynesville production will grow by 1.6 Bcf/d annually, on average, in the next two years, according
to our STEO forecast. As natural gas prices remain elevated, drilling in the Haynesville region
remains economical, even with relatively deeper and more expensive well development. I
n addition, Haynesville’s greater well
productivity and its proximity to
liquefied natural gas export terminals
and major industrial natural gas
consumers along the U.S. Gulf Coast
draws operators to the region.
We forecast that the Permian region
will contribute 2.2 Bcf/d to production
growth in 2022 and 1.2 Bcf/d in 2023.
Our forecast for the West Texas
Intermediate crude oil price remains
above $60 per barrel, prompting

operators to increase oil-directed drilling activity in the region, which would also increase associated
gas production.
In recent years, the Appalachia region has provided the largest share of U.S domestic natural gas
output, accounting for one-third of L48 production annually since 2016.
Although production growth has slowed in recent years because of less drilling activity and
emerging pipeline capacity constraints, Appalachia well-level productivity has been increasing,
offsetting some of the drilling decline. We estimate that production from the Appalachia region will
grow by 0.3 Bcf/d in 2022 and 0.7 Bcf/d in 2023.

NewBase February 22 -2022 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil, Gold Advance as Putin Orders Forces to Regions of Ukraine
Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil and gold led a broad rally in commodities after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that
he’s recognizing two self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine and plans to send
“peacekeeping forces” to the region in a dramatic escalation of the conflict.
WTI for April delivery gained 2.8% from Friday to $92.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange at 12:18 p.m. in Singapore after rising as much as 4.3% earlier.
March futures, which expire on Tuesday, climbed 3.1%. Brent for April advanced 1.3% to $96.67 on
the ICE Futures Europe exchange after closing 2% higher on Monday. Spot gold climbed 0.1% to
$1,908.70 an ounce, after earlier hitting $1,914.25, the highest intraday level since June 1.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed about 3% from Friday, after not closing Monday due to a
U.S. holiday, while gold touched an eight-month high. There were no details on how many Russian
troops might go in, or when. Moscow has previously accused Ukraine of having a significant
deployment of its own soldiers on the line of contact with the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.
The intensifying standoff -- and the response from the U.S. and Europe -- has the potential to roil
raw materials markets. Russia is a major producer of oil, gas, aluminum and wheat, which Ukraine
also grows. Russian aluminum company United Co. Rusal International PJSC tumbled more than
20% in Hong Kong amid nervousness over possible sanctions.
Oil price special
coverage

The tensions over Ukraine come on top of a blistering rally in oil that’s been driven by supply not
being able to keep up with steadily rising demand and shrinking global inventories. Hopes of
additional barrels from Iran hang in the balance as nuclear negotiations drag on, meanwhile.
“The oil market will continue to be on a knife’s edge over the next few months,” Sri Paravaikkarasu,
Asia oil lead at FGE, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “We could see prices surpass the $100-a-
barrel mark very quickly and it even has an upside of $10 a barrel if we start seeing most sanctions
being placed on Russian oil exports.”
The White House plans to announce new sanctions Tuesday in response to Russian actions on
Ukraine, according to a Biden administration official. The U.S. is moving all State Department
personnel and its embassy out of Ukraine and into Poland citing security reasons.
Gold has benefited from its role as a haven in times of geopolitical turmoil, as risks are “outweighing
worries about the Fed tightening”, said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX. Meanwhile,
cryptocurrencies tumbled, undermining the argument that they can fulfill a similar role.
Aluminum surged to the highest intraday level in more than 13 years, as the Ukraine tensions added
to supply risks in a market already grappling with production pressures and growing demand. Prices
rose as much as 1.9% to $3,342 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, and are closing in on an all-
time record. Nickel surged as much as 1.4% to $24,700, the highest since 2011.
Chicago wheat futures jumped to a near one-month high as trading resumed after a U.S. holiday.
Russia and Ukraine account for a quarter of global trade in the grain and a fifth of corn sales. There’s
concern that an escalation could disrupt Black Sea shipments at a time when world food costs are
already at a decade high.
Palm oil rocketed to a fresh record in Malaysia, hitting 5,799 ringgit ($1,386) a ton, on concern the
global vegetable oils market would tighten further. Russia and Ukraine make up 80% of global
sunflower oil exports.
Oil was boosted Monday after Saudi Aramco said it sees signs that demand is rising, especially in
Asia. Several of OPEC+’s biggest producers want the group to continue with its strategy and add
another 400,000 barrels a day of crude to the market in April, according to people familiar with the
matter. That comes despite calls for OPEC+ to increase output faster amid tight supplies.
“Ukraine is going to dominate the volatility in short term market moves this week,” said Jeffrey
Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte. “If it continues to deteriorate then we can
see Brent crude above $100 by the end of the week, if not before.”
Efforts by governments to drive an economic rebound are likely to add strain to tight oil supplies
and could send prices to fresh peaks, unless international talks end sanctions on Tehran and lead
to a surge in Iranian exports.
Nervousness of possible disruption of exports from major oil producer Russia as it masses troops
on neighbouring Ukraine’s border has already helped to push oil prices to their highest since 2014.
At around $95 a barrel, international crude prices are a way off the all-time peak of more than $147
hit in July 2008.
However, as in 2008, when it took only five months to soar from roughly current levels to the record,
the world is seeing fast economic growth, tight supplies and a lack of spare capacity to provide a
cushion against geopolitical shocks.
As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) gradually unwind
output cuts implemented in response to the record demand fall at the height of the COVID-19

pandemic in 2020, JP Morgan predicts the producer group will continue incremental increases but
underperformance by some members will drive prices.
“Supply misses are rising. Market recognition of strained capacity is also growing,” the bank said.
“We believe this should drive a higher risk premium ... circa $125 a barrel as early as 2Q 2022 and
$150 a barrel in 2023.”
Not so fast, analysts at Citi say. They point to the possible unwinding of U.S. sanctions on OPEC-
member Iran as diplomats on both sides say talks are making progress.
A deal could add around half a million barrels per day (bpd) into the market by April or May and 1.3
million bpd by the year’s end, which, along with a rise of around 2.8 million bpd from Canada, Brazil,
Iraq, Venezuela and the United States, could push prices below $65 a barrel.
“Most market analyses of prices the year ahead have focused on a lack of surplus production
capacity and have ignored the likelihood of a return of Iranian oil to markets”, Citi said.
Research consultancy Energy Aspects offered a more bullish view, saying the lifting of sanctions
should not drive prices below $80 this year.
Central to a more cautious outlook is the possibility that a price rise will lead to more production of
the shale oil lying under the southern United States.
“Up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. tight oil could be unleashed in the event of a
supercycle – with oil prices remaining around or above $100 per barrel,” consultancy Rystad Energy
said.
While prices may drive more production, Michael Tran commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets
did not foresee much impact on demand.
“We see upside visibility for prices to touch or flirt with $115 a barrel or higher this summer ... markets
led higher by tightening product and crude inventories are difficult to solve absent a demand
destruction event or a supply surge, neither of which appears to be on the horizon.”

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world –Feb -04 -2022
We should boost Europe’s energy independence by investing in
renewables, CEO says
CNBC -Anmar Frangoul + NewBase
KEY POINTS
 “We need to accelerate and do it much faster, particularly on the renewables side,” Miguel
Stilwell de Andrade told CNBC Friday.
 The EDP CEO’s comments come at a time when tensions between Russia and Ukraine have
pushed discussions about energy independence to the forefront of many people’s minds.
 On Friday, the company reported a net profit of 657 million euros ($746.1 million) for 2021,
a year-on-year drop of 18%.
A
wind turbine in an energy park operated by EDP’s renewables unit,
The CEO of Portuguese utility EDP has linked the rapid adoption of renewables to Europe’s energy
independence, telling CNBC that investment in the sector needed to be “much faster.”
“These are [indigenous] … resources — wind, solar — that we have in Europe,” Miguel Stilwell de
Andrade, who was speaking to “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday morning, said. “So we would
become less dependent on external sources of energy, whether it’s gas or coal.”
“I think the answer is, actually, we need to accelerate and do it much faster, particularly on the
renewables side,” he added. The executive’s comments come at a time when tensions between
Russia and Ukraine have pushed discussions about energy independence to the forefront of many

people’s minds. Russia was the biggest supplier of both petroleum oils and natural gas to the
European Union last year, according to Eurostat.
By 2030 the EU, of which Portugal is a member, wants to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by at
least 55%. In terms of renewable sources in its energy mix, a proposal has been made to increase
the current target of at least 32% by 2030 to at least 40%.
“To increase EU energy independence, we need to keep investing in renewable energy sources,
but we also need to do more to decrease our dependency on fossil fuels,” the European
Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has said.
“We have ambitious targets in Europe in general, in terms of what we want to do,” de Andrade said,
going on to reference the Paris Agreement.
Adopted in 2015, the accord aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees
Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.” For his part, de Andrade said the trick was to
“accelerate that on the ground, translate that into national plans, translate that into concrete projects
on the ground.”
“And for that we need, also, much more agile, much faster permitting and licensing for renewable
projects,” he said. “We need to make sure that the networks are investing to make those
interconnections.”
“And if we can do that, if we can really accelerate that pace we will get cheaper energy [that’s]
reliable, and also be more energy independent.” As a company, EDP wants to be coal free by 2025
and is aiming for 100% of its electricity generation to be based on renewables by 2030.
On Friday, the company reported a net profit of 657 million euros ($746.1 million) for 2021, a year-
on-year drop of 18%. EDP said it had been “penalized by non-recurring effects of 169m [euros],
including impairments of thermal assets in Iberia.”
“Excluding these impacts, recurring net profit increased 6% [year-on-year] to 826m [euros],
supported by the strong performance in renewables globally, the integration of Viesgo in Spain and

the growth of activity of networks in Brazil,” it said. Viesgo is a firm specializing in electricity
distribution.
EDP said its performance in 2021 had also been affected by the rise in wholesale market energy
prices and hydro resources being lower than average in Iberia.
European Energy Transition 2030:
in 2018, the EU has decided upon an climate and energy framework up to 2030. The aim is to havea
clean, affordable and reliable energy system in Europe. To that end, greenhouse gas emissions are
to decline by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels, renewables are to deliver 32 percent of our
energy and efficiency is to improve by even 32.5 percent.
But what do these targets really mean? How will Europe’s energy system look like in 2030? Which
aspects of the transition are particularly important? Against this background, we present you this
report as a basis to understand where we are heading in Europe.
For example, the overall renewables target translates into a Europe-wide 57 percent share of
renewables in the power sector by 2030, implying that wind and solar will shape Europe’s power
system. And the greenhouse gas target implies that coal will be cut by two thirds, oil and gas by a
quarter – asking for socially just concepts for this transition.
The European Energy Transition 2030 is a political project that concerns us all. It will demand
European politics to address key issues to make it happen. In this report we suggest ten priorities
and four flagship initiatives. The report is complemented by a technical document that translates the
recommendations into a concrete work plan for the new Parliament and the new Commission.

NewBase Energy News 22 February 2022 - Issue No. 1489 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC
area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the
NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor,
ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste
management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and
sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa
and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas
of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor
stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas
metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted
& finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance
agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing
for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in
numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is
the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400
popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy,
waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world.
Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

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