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NewBase 04 January 2015 - Issue No. 510 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oman:Orpic to invest in gas flaring reduction project in Sohar
(OEPPA Business Development Dept)
Oman Oil Refineries & Petroleum Industries Company SAOC (Orpic), the nation’s refining and
petrochemicals flagship, will invest in a Flare Gas Recovery System at its Sohar Refinery — part
of a multibillion dollar spend planned by the company over the next several years. A number of
international engineering firms are bidding for Orpic’s contract to provide front-end engineering
design (FEED) services linked to the installation of the flare gas recovery system.
The project — part of Orpic’s energy conservation and emissions abatement programme — will
help in the recovery and processing of vent gases, which would otherwise be flared. Recovered
flare gas is proposed to be compressed for use in the plant as a fuel gas. An overview of the
project, among other major Orpic initiatives, was provided by executives at a seminar hosted by
the company for the benefit of contractors, vendors and suppliers in Sohar last month.
Aside from Orpic’s mega investments in the Sohar Refinery Improvement Project (SRIP) and Liwa
Plastics Project (LPP), the seminar also highlighted contracting opportunities linked to, among
other things, the CDU Column Revamp Project, RFCC Revamp Project, Texas Tower Project,
Cooling Water System Project, Seawater RO Piping Upgrade, Work Environment Project, and
Muscat-Sohar Product Pipeline
An aerial view of Sohar refinery. File photo
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Basic engineering for the Flare Gas Recovery Project has been carried out by US-based John
Zink Hamworthy, a leading provider of emissions-control and clean-air systems and technologies.
Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the company’s flare systems and technologies find wide
application in industries ranging from hydrocarbon and chemical processing, to biofuels,
automobile manufacturing, food processing, pulp and paper, and waste management.
The basic processes employed in the flare recovery system, according to Orpic, are the collection
of flare gases from the liquid seal drum, compression of the gases, and physical separation. Gas
compression is performed by liquid ring compressors, while separation of recovered vapour phase
from a mixed liquid is accomplished in a horizontal separator vessel
Significantly, the project is seen as a further improvement to previous initiatives undertaken by
Orpic on the flare reduction front. In September 2013, the company announced the commissioning
of two projects for reducing flaring and sulphur dioxide emission as part of a comprehensive $50
million environment improvement programme (EIP). As a result of that initiative, flaring at Sohar
Refinery was reduced by 60 per cent over 2011 trends. In quantity terms, flaring dropped from
12.5 tonnes per hour in 2010 to 4.5 tonnes in August 2013, the company stated.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon sector accounts for over half of GDP: QNB
The Peninsula + NewBase
DOHA: Huge investments in major infrastructure projects and fast growing population will further
spur Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon sector. In its latest research note on Qatari economy, the QNB
Group said the non-hydrocarbon sector now accounts for over half of its GDP.
Citing Ministry of Development Planning
and Statistics’ (MDPS) data, the QNB
analysts said the non-hydrocarbon sector
has pushed its share of GDP to over half
(50.7 percent) in Q3, 2014 for the first
time from 49 percent in Q2, 2014. Real
GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in
the year to Q3, 2014 from 5.7 percent in
the previous quarter.
“Rapid growth in the non-hydrocarbon
sector averaged 11.9 percent in Q1, 2014
to Q3, 2014, even higher than our
forecast of 11.2 percent for the full year.
Non-hydrocarbon growth was spurred by
large investments in major infrastructure
projects and by the fast growing
population. On the other hand, the hydrocarbon sector declined 2.8 percent year-on-year as a
result of lower crude oil production and temporary gas production shutdowns for maintenance,”
the analysts said.
The latest GDP figures confirm Qatar’s ongoing rapid process of economic diversification away
from its traditional role as a hydrocarbon exporter towards a manufacturing and services hub.
Major infrastructure projects, notably the new metro in Doha, major real estate projects such as
Musheireb in the centre of old Doha and Lusail to the north, as well as new roads, highways and
the further expansion of the new Hamad International Airport, resulted in a 18.5 percent year-on-
year expansion in construction activity — the fastest growing sector.
In addition, transportation and communication increased by 10.5 percent year-on-year,
predominantly owing to increased passenger flows through the new airport. Financial, real estate,
and business services also grew robustly (13.7 percent year-on-year in Q3 2014) as banking
intermediation accelerated and real estate services were boosted by the demand for housing for
the growing population. Furthermore, trade, hotels and restaurants also grew strongly (13.7
percent y-o-y) on the back of the growing population, the seasonal Ramadan effect as well as
increased tourist activity.
In contrast, the hydrocarbon sector contracted in the year to Q3 as a result of lower crude oil
output and shutdowns for maintenance at gas facilities. A moratorium on new projects at Qatar’s
largest gas field, the North Field, means that increases in gas production are likely to be limited.
The strong growth momentum achieved in Q3 continues to be in line with the country’s overall
development plan outlined in the National Vision 2030 and the National Development Strategy
2011-16.
By investing heavily in major non-hydrocarbon projects the authorities are attracting a new wave
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
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of expatriate workers to Qatar. Indeed, population continued its near double-digit growth (9.7
percent y-o-y) in November 2014, driven by the large ramp up in infrastructure spending.
Accordingly, small and medium-sized enterprises, such as hotels, education, medical services,
retail and restaurants are expected to flourish in order to cater to the growth of the population. As
such, this increased level of population growth should boost aggregate domestic consumption and
add to non-hydrocarbon GDP growth going forward.
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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5
Egypt pays further $350M to BG Group & $60M to UAE Dana Gas
Press Release + NewBase
Following the commitment from the Egyptian government to repay outstanding debts to
the energy industry, LNG player BG Group, has received a further payment equivalent to
US$350 million.
This reduces the company’s
domestic receivables balance in
Egypt to around US$920 million,
stands in the company’s statement.
While the company has been
impacted by the reduction of LNG
exports from Egypt, it continues to
investigate options for increasing
the supply of gas and is working
with the government on resolving
the outstanding receivable balance.
Dana Gas announced on Sunday,
January 4, 2015, that it has received from a payment of $60 million (AED 220 million) the Egyptian
Government, representing 28% of the total overdue receivables amounting to $212 million (AED
778 million).
“This payment has been received in the form of $10 million and the balance in equivalent Egyptian
pounds. All of this money will be used to pay for the Company’s overdue industry receivables,
fund future investment requirements and address operational expenses in Egypt,” Dana
announced in its statement to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX).
Earlier in 2014, Dana Gas, the Middle East's leading regional private sector natural gas Company,
and the Egyptian Government inked the landmark Gas Production Enhancement Agreement
(GPEA) which allows the Company to significantly enhance production and gradually recover its
outstanding receivables in a phased manner over a three-year period going forward.
“The GPEA agreement allows investments to be made in an important development program to
eventually increase production from current levels of around 40,000 BOEPD from the Company’s
Development Leases in the Nile Delta”, the statement revealed, adding that in accordance with
the GPEA, Dana Gas will undertake a long-term staged work program over a seven-year period
with project work expected to commence within the next few months.
“The first export sales of incremental volumes of condensate will follow thereafter. Estimated
incremental production during the period will be approximately 270 billion cubic feet of natural gas,
8 to 9 million barrels of condensate and around 450,000 tons of LPG. Peak production is expected
to occur in 2017 with incremental daily production of approximately 160 MMscf gas and 5,600
barrels of condensate,” Dana highlighted.
Commenting on the payment, Dana Gas CEO Patrick Allman-Ward stated: “We would like to
thank the Egyptian Government for making this payment. We are also delighted to have
concluded the Gas Production Enhancement Agreement and are working closely with the
authorities to accelerate the implementation of the GPEA in order to fast-track enhanced
production and the payment of the remaining outstanding receivables as quickly as possible going
forward. Dana Gas is now preparing for the startup of the project and is in the process of securing
materials and drilling rigs".
BG plant in Egypt , LNG
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Iraq supply most oil in decades 2.94 million barrels a day
BYBLOOMBERG
Oil supplies in Iraq surged to the highest level in decades, signaling no respite in early 2015 from
the glut that has pushed crude prices to their lowest in five years
Iraq exported 2.94 million barrels a day in December, the most since the 1980s, said Oil Ministry
spokesman Asim Jihad. The countries provided 15 per cent of the world's oil in November,
according to the International Energy Agency
Oil slumped 48 per cent in London in 2014, the steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis, as
the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) refused to pare output in response to
the highest United States oil production in three decades.
"With the latest news from Iraq, the focus on rising supply remains a key negative driver for oil,"
Ole Sloth Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said by e-mail. Brent crude futures, at
about $56 a barrel on Friday, may slip below $50 this year, he said
Iraq, Opec's second-biggest producer, reached a deal with its semi-autonomous Kurdish region
last month over the Kurds' oil exports through Turkey, after years of disagreement on the
territory's right to independently develop its energy resource. The agreement "looks to have had a
positive effect on exports to the north," analysts at consultants JBC Energy in Vienna said in a
report.
The agreement allows the shipment of as much as 550,000 barrels a day of oil from northern Iraq
to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, along a pipeline to the Turkish border operated by the
Kurdistan Regional Government. This includes 300,000 barrels a day from the Kirkuk oilfields in
northern Iraq, under the control of Kurdish forces since they moved to repel an offensive by
militants from the Islamic State in June
Iraq exported 5.579 million barrels of Kirkuk oil in December, equivalent to about 180,000 barrels
a day, Oil Ministry spokesman Jihad said by text message. That's more than a six-fold increase
from 836,000 barrels in November, according to the Oil Ministry .
The process of pumping crude oil started from Kirkuk to Ceyhan
In accordance with the agreement between the center and the region
A source in the North Oil Company announced on Thursday the resumption of pumping crude oil
from Kirkuk fields towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan for the first time through pipeline from the
Kurdistan region in the light of the agreement signed between the central government and the
Region.
The source told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / that the NOC started this evening the
process of pumping at a rate of 150 000 barrels of crude oil through the new pipeline, which runs
from north-western Dibs district, passing through the Kurdistan Region to the Turkish port of
Ceyhan.
He added that the pumping continues and it is hoped its arrival at Ceyhan in two days, the fact
that the pipeline is empty and new and comes in light of the oil agreement between Baghdad and
Erbil, which allows the export of 300 000 barrels of Kirkuk oil through the line, and was relying on
the quantities produced from Kirkuk and Jambour oil fields .
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redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7
CNPC, Guizhou Government Could Together Explore for Shale Gas
China Daily + NewBase
China's state owned energy major CNPC has expressed interest in exploring for shale gas in
Guizhou in cooperation with the Guizhou government, reported China Daily Tuesday quoting a
company official.
Xu Bo, a researcher from the economic and
technology research institute of CNPC made these
remarks at a shale gas development and prospect
seminar held in Guiyang in Guizhou province on
December 27.
According to the data from the Ministry of Land and
Resources, Guizhou shale gas reserves rank in the
top three in China and accounts for 12.79 percent
of country's shale gas reserves, China Daily said.
Some 80% of China's shale gas resources are
controlled by state owned oil and gas giants such
as CNPC and Sinopec.
The government in its 2011-2015 shale gas
development plan aimed to turn out more than 60 billion cubic meters of shale gas by 2020, but
the goal was later cut by half to 30 billion cubic meters.
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Victoria Oil & Gas Inks Gas Supply Deal in Cameroon
Victoria OIL + NewBase
Victoria Oil & Gas Plc (VOG), on Monday said it has signed a gas supply deal, through its wholly
owned subsidiary, with ENEO Cameroon S.A (ENEO), Cameroon's integrated utility company.
Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Gaz du Cameroun S.A. (GDC) has also signed a legally
binding term sheet with ENEO and Altaaqa Alternative Solutions Projects DWC-LLC, a United
Arab Emirates equipment supply company. Altaaqa will provide power generation equipment and
has responsibility for importing and installing the
gensets at the Douala power stations.
GDC will work with Altaaqa to make the initial gas
connections. The term sheets have been signed
to enable the project to be expedited to meet
ENEO requirements and it is expected that these
will be replaced by full contracts in early 2015,
Victoria said.
“The Agreement with ENEO is a major gas supply
contract for VOG in terms of scale and profitability
with guaranteed minimum take or pay gas
consumption at a fixed US$9/mmbtu over the 2
year contract term. The contract can be extended
by mutual agreement,” the company added.
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US: Oil price crash claims first US LNG project casualty
Reuters + NewBase
Excelerate Energy’s Texan liquefied natural gas terminal plan has become the first victim of an oil
price slump threatening the economics of US LNG export projects. A halving in the oil price since
June has upended assumptions by developers that cheap US LNG would muscle into high-value
Asian energy markets, which relied on oil p rices staying high to make the US supply affordable.
The floating 8 million
tonne per annum
(mtpa) export plant
moored at Lavaca Bay,
Texas advanced by
Houston-based
Excelerate has been
put on hold, according
to regulatory filings
obtained by Reuters.
The project was initially
due to begin exports in
2018. Excelerate’s
move bodes ill for
thirteen other US LNG
projects, which have
also not signed up
enough international
buyers, to reach a final investment decision (FID).
Only Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Sempra’s Cameron LNG projects have hit that milestone. Back
when LNG and crude oil prices were riding high in February, Excelerate, founded by Oklahoma
billionaire George Kaiser, applied for permits to build the facility.
Eleven months on, its submission to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on
December 23 said that uncertainty generated by a steep decrease in oil prices has forced it to
conduct a “strategic reconsideration of the economic value of the project” and to suspend all
activities until April 1, 2015.
“Due to the recent global market conditions, the company has determined that, at this time, this
project no longer meets the financial criteria necessary in order for us to move forward with the
capital investment,” a company spokesman said. Stiff economic headwinds are making new
developments tough going.
Prices that LNG projects can charge for long-term supply are falling from historic highs as new
producers crowd the market, which is already oversupplied due to slowing demand and rising
output that has seen spot Asian LNG prices halve this year.
At the same time, major consumers from Japan to South Korea and China are seeking to offload
some of their long-term LNG supply commitments, contributing to the glut. Excelerate Energy will
update the regulator on the status of Lavaca Bay in April, 2015, according to the filing.
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The export plant operates under a tolling model, whereby the developer sells liquefaction capacity
to LNG consumers who then must arrange for shipping to transport the fuel.
Typically companies seek to lock-in buyers for around 85 per cent of a project’s capacity before
reaching an investment decision.
Excelerate hints in the filing that lackluster demand for capacity was behind the suspension,
saying that only “renewed interest of potential counterparties” could get it moving again. Even
before the oil price slide, US LNG projects were struggling to sign up the big Asian buyers needed
to underpin multi-billion dollar investments, resorting finally to tapping vestiges of demand left in
Europe.
Seen in the light of plus-$100 a barrel oil, projects to liquefy and export US gas by ship promised
major cost savings to Asian buyers reliant on costly oil-linked gas supplied by Australia and Qatar,
which generated huge demand. The advantage of US export plants was that the LNG costs would
reflect local benchmark Henry Hub gas prices, currently trading around $4 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu), plus shipping and liquefaction costs.
“The oil price plunge makes US LNG with prices linked to Henry Hub potentially uncompetitive
with LNG from other sources especially those using an oil price linkage,” independent consultant
Andy Flower said. Prior to the oil price crash, the US discount to rival Brent-linked LNG supply
from Qatar and Australia was around $8-$9 per mmBtu.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11
Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
New Year starts with concern, uncertainty
+ Saudi Gazette + NewBase
Concern, anxiety, uncertainty and apprehensions are gripping the crude markets as the New
Year begins. Oil markets plunged further — sinking below $53, a level last seen during the Great
Recession —as sun was setting on 2014.
While Chinese economy was reportedly cooling — indicating a global slowdown — the US
administration’s decision to open the door for expanded oil exports outside the US of the lightly
processed form of crude known as condensate turned out to be the another proverbial nail in the
coffin.
After a long period of intense political debate, the Department of Commerce in Washington
announced approving requests to ship overseas processed light oil products. Analysts believe the
move could lead to over 1 million barrels of ultra-light US crude entering the global markets.
“In practice this long-awaited move can open up the floodgates to substantial increases in exports
by end 2015,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup bank was reported as
saying in the press.
Washington’s decision indicated a market share war was apparently on. Markets were not ready
to absorb this jab. Prices had to plunge — and they did — to new lows. The latest decline in the
crude price was also given a fillip by soft data emerging from China confirming that its industrial
output shrunk in December — for the first time in seven months.
The final HSBC/Market Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December came in at 49.6, down
from 50.0 in November. And any reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Adding to the pressure
is the fact that US crude inventories last week reportedly rose to almost 13 per cent above the
five-year average level of 343.1 million barrels for this time of year, the highest for the period in
data going back to 1982, Energy Information Administration data confirmed.
How low could the markets go in 2015? Analysts are now perplexed. None can project with a
certainty. Only guesstimates could be offered. In recent weeks, Minister Ali Al-Naimi, the wheeler
and shaker of the global crude industry, has been underlining in rather clear terms: “It is not in the
interest of Opec producers to cut their production, whatever the price is,” he told the weekly
MEES.
“Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.” The momentum at this juncture,
however, remains firmly to the downside. “If this doesn’t hold, we could go back to price levels in
late 2008 and early 2009 — down in the $30’s.
There’s no reason why it couldn’t happen,” Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN was
quoted as saying by Matt Egan of CNNMoney. “It really is pretty mathematical. There is more oil
than we need,” Tamar Essner, energy analyst at Nasdaq Advisory Services told Egan.
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Consequent to all these developments, the fear premium too has gone down —considerably — if
not eradicated. Energy markets are no more itchy at the slightest hint of political tension in the oil
rich region.
Way back in 2011, when Libyan outage first hit headlines, markets went scary. Fear premium
started creeping up and indeed rapidly. Not today any more. Libyan output is once again at the
scary low level of around 300,000 bpd against the regular 1.5/16 million bpd.
Energy Aspects Ltd. estimates Libyan output to have fallen below 300,000 barrels a day, the
lowest since May, after militants shifted attacks to energy facilities, including the country’s largest
oil export terminal.
Yet the markets are taking the development in their own stride. The panic that one witnessed in
2011, as energy ministers and leaders gathered in Riyadh to discuss the Libyan outage, is
nowhere to be seen today.
Today is a different world. Calm is reigning in and environment has changed — rather drastically.
Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service also is not too
optimistic.
“If panic hits those financial companies that have a lot of exposure to oil on the upside, the
numbers you may think are burlesque or hyperbole like $35 or even $25 suddenly become real
possibilities, if only for a brief period of time,” Kloza told CNN. “Anything can happen in 2015.”
Many analysts now feel, that the current market behavior is the manifestation of the existing
market fundamentals today and no immediate correction is on horizon. Jeremy Warner writing for
The Telegraph feels that the current dip in oil market prices is not a short term scenario, rather he
underlines that oil price will remain low for a long time, sinking to perhaps as little as $20 a barrel
over the coming year before recovering a little.
Because of a change in the supply model, this is a fundamental shift that will likely have long-
lasting effects, says Mohamed El-Erian while writing for Bloomberg News. Through the years,
markets have been conditioned to expect OPEC members to cut their production in response to a
sharp drop in prices. Saudi Arabia played the role of the “swing producer.”
However, in serving as the swing producer through the years, Saudi Arabia learned an important
lesson, too: It isn’t easy to regain market share. This difficulty is greatly amplified now that
significant non-traditional energy supplies, including shale, are hitting the market.
“That simple calculation is behind Saudi Arabia’s insistence on not reducing production this time.
Without such action by the No. 1 producer, and with no one else either able or willing to be the
swing producer, OPEC is no longer in a position to lower its production even though oil prices
have collapsed by about 50 percent since June,” Erian underlined.
And then he argues that this change in the production model means it is up to natural market
forces to restore pricing power to the oil markets. Low prices will lead to the gradual shutdown of
what are now unprofitable (or inefficient in the words of Minister Naimi) oil fields and alternative
energy supplies, and they will discourage investment in new capacity.
At the same time, they will encourage higher demand for oil. This will all happen, but it will take a
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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13
while. In the meantime, as oil prices settle at significantly lower levels, economic behavior will
change beyond the “one-off” impact, he argued.
Oil markets stand much altered today. Although prices may go up, especially in the second half of
the year, the fact remains that fundamentals are controlling the markets today. And the
fundamentals are in for a long haul. A new era has dawned. And the markets are beginning to
learn it rather the hard way.
A new equilibrium will indeed be struck — at some point in time — yet that is some way off, one
could now say with some certainty.
Oil prices hit new lows; 5 years low
AFP + NEwBase
Oil prices extended their slide last week, kicking off the new year with 5.5-year low points, as tepid
eurozone demand offset a pick-up in the US economy. The dollar strengthened, hitting demand
for commodities like crude and metals priced in the US unit.
Oil prices slumped to new 5.5-
year low points Friday, the first
trading day of 2015, on signs of
weak manufacturing output in
Europe.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
for delivery in February, the US
benchmark, struck $52.03 a
barrel and Brent North Sea crude
for February tumbled to $55.48 -
the lowest levels since mid-2009.
“With global manufacturing weakening, from China to the USA to Europe, and Russia and Iraq
making production gains, for oil the New Year is much the same as the old year—abysmal,” noted
Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex traders.
WTI lost 46% of its value this year and Brent was down 48%, with most of the freefall happening
since June, when prices were above $100.
Rising US and Canadian oil production has contributed to ample global supplies at a time of
slowing growth in China, the world’s largest energy consumer, and other emerging-market
economies, a recession in Japan and a near-stall in the 18-nation eurozone.
A decision last month by Opec, which supplies about a third of the world’s oil, to leave output
unchanged despite the price plunge also rattled the market, adding further pressure on prices.
Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, pointed to expectations for a price
rebound in 2015.
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He said the global supply glut could likely be alleviated by current low oil prices affecting “existing
shale oil rigs, causing them to shut off, keeping US crude oil production in check”.
“In 2015, we believe that crude demand would be linked to how China, Japan and the eurozone
perform. If we start to see the situation for these countries improve, a reversal from the demand
side could happen,” Ang added.
By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February
slumped to $57.02 a barrel from $60.23 on Wednesday of the previous week.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate or light sweet crude for
February tumbled to $53.49 a barrel from $55.89.
Non-Opec oil supply expected to rise by 1.36mbpd in 2015
The non-Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supply is expected to increase
by 1.36mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to average 57.31mn bpd, according to Global Investment
House.
The new supply level is taking in to consideration after an upward revision 0.12mn bpd, Global
said in a report.
“The strong growth trend seen in 2014 is expected to continue into 2015 but at a slower pace,
supported by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Americas, Latin
America and China, and partly offset by declines in the FSU (former Soviet Union) and Africa,” the
report said, adding the forecast is associated with a high level of risk.
“While the expectation of capital expenditure in 2014 and 2015 indicates a rising trend, other risk
factors, such as geopolitics, the environment, fiscal regimes, oil policies, prices and technical
developments, will continue to impact supply growth expectations,” it added.
Non-Opec supply is expected to experience an increase of 2.2mn bpd of gross capacity addition
in 2015. On the demand side, Global said in 2015, projected growth was revised lower by 0.07mn
bpd from last month’s report to settle at 1.12mn bpd.
Downward adjustments took place in OECD Europe, Asia-Pacific, as well as in Latin America,
leading to expected total world oil consumption of 92.26mn bpd, it said.
The estimate for oil demand growth in 2014 has been revised down by 0.12mn bpd from the last
monthly oil market report (MOMR) of Opec to stand at 0.93mn bpd. Oil demand growth in the
OECD region has been trimmed down by 0.09mn bpd, it said, adding estimated non-OECD oil
demand also experienced a downward revision, by 0.03mn bpd, largely due to less than expected
oil consumption in other Asia and the Middle East.
Total estimated demand in 2014 is estimated to be at 91.13mn bpd down from 91.19mn bpd in the
last report. Opec has revised its 2014 non-Opec supply estimate growing 1.72mn bpd to reach a
level of 55.95mn bpd. Upward revisions came from most of the main suppliers in November.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15
The US, Russia and Latin America all witnessed upward revisions from the last MOMR. The US
production was revised up 0.04mn bpd; while Russia and Latin America received a 0.02mn bpd
and 0.03mn bpd upward revisions respectively. However, China is expected to keep its production
in line with last year’s average of 4.24mn bpd after it received a downward revision of 0.02mn bpd.
The Opec has decided not to reduce oil production, despite a huge oversupply in world markets.
Following a meeting in Vienna in November last year, it left its combined oil production unchanged
at 30mn bpd.Saudi Arabia blocked calls from poorer members of the oil exporter group for
production cuts with Iraq being the main provider of increases in Opec’s oil production; all of the
GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council) members decreased their production. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the
UAE and Qatar saw a production cuts amounting to 158,800 barrels a day in total.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Your Guide to Energy events in your area
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
ASME member since 1995
Emarat member since 1990
Mobile : +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 04 January 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 18

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New base 510 special 04 january 2014

  • 1. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1 NewBase 04 January 2015 - Issue No. 510 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oman:Orpic to invest in gas flaring reduction project in Sohar (OEPPA Business Development Dept) Oman Oil Refineries & Petroleum Industries Company SAOC (Orpic), the nation’s refining and petrochemicals flagship, will invest in a Flare Gas Recovery System at its Sohar Refinery — part of a multibillion dollar spend planned by the company over the next several years. A number of international engineering firms are bidding for Orpic’s contract to provide front-end engineering design (FEED) services linked to the installation of the flare gas recovery system. The project — part of Orpic’s energy conservation and emissions abatement programme — will help in the recovery and processing of vent gases, which would otherwise be flared. Recovered flare gas is proposed to be compressed for use in the plant as a fuel gas. An overview of the project, among other major Orpic initiatives, was provided by executives at a seminar hosted by the company for the benefit of contractors, vendors and suppliers in Sohar last month. Aside from Orpic’s mega investments in the Sohar Refinery Improvement Project (SRIP) and Liwa Plastics Project (LPP), the seminar also highlighted contracting opportunities linked to, among other things, the CDU Column Revamp Project, RFCC Revamp Project, Texas Tower Project, Cooling Water System Project, Seawater RO Piping Upgrade, Work Environment Project, and Muscat-Sohar Product Pipeline An aerial view of Sohar refinery. File photo
  • 2. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 2 Basic engineering for the Flare Gas Recovery Project has been carried out by US-based John Zink Hamworthy, a leading provider of emissions-control and clean-air systems and technologies. Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the company’s flare systems and technologies find wide application in industries ranging from hydrocarbon and chemical processing, to biofuels, automobile manufacturing, food processing, pulp and paper, and waste management. The basic processes employed in the flare recovery system, according to Orpic, are the collection of flare gases from the liquid seal drum, compression of the gases, and physical separation. Gas compression is performed by liquid ring compressors, while separation of recovered vapour phase from a mixed liquid is accomplished in a horizontal separator vessel Significantly, the project is seen as a further improvement to previous initiatives undertaken by Orpic on the flare reduction front. In September 2013, the company announced the commissioning of two projects for reducing flaring and sulphur dioxide emission as part of a comprehensive $50 million environment improvement programme (EIP). As a result of that initiative, flaring at Sohar Refinery was reduced by 60 per cent over 2011 trends. In quantity terms, flaring dropped from 12.5 tonnes per hour in 2010 to 4.5 tonnes in August 2013, the company stated.
  • 3. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3 Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon sector accounts for over half of GDP: QNB The Peninsula + NewBase DOHA: Huge investments in major infrastructure projects and fast growing population will further spur Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon sector. In its latest research note on Qatari economy, the QNB Group said the non-hydrocarbon sector now accounts for over half of its GDP. Citing Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics’ (MDPS) data, the QNB analysts said the non-hydrocarbon sector has pushed its share of GDP to over half (50.7 percent) in Q3, 2014 for the first time from 49 percent in Q2, 2014. Real GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in the year to Q3, 2014 from 5.7 percent in the previous quarter. “Rapid growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector averaged 11.9 percent in Q1, 2014 to Q3, 2014, even higher than our forecast of 11.2 percent for the full year. Non-hydrocarbon growth was spurred by large investments in major infrastructure projects and by the fast growing population. On the other hand, the hydrocarbon sector declined 2.8 percent year-on-year as a result of lower crude oil production and temporary gas production shutdowns for maintenance,” the analysts said. The latest GDP figures confirm Qatar’s ongoing rapid process of economic diversification away from its traditional role as a hydrocarbon exporter towards a manufacturing and services hub. Major infrastructure projects, notably the new metro in Doha, major real estate projects such as Musheireb in the centre of old Doha and Lusail to the north, as well as new roads, highways and the further expansion of the new Hamad International Airport, resulted in a 18.5 percent year-on- year expansion in construction activity — the fastest growing sector. In addition, transportation and communication increased by 10.5 percent year-on-year, predominantly owing to increased passenger flows through the new airport. Financial, real estate, and business services also grew robustly (13.7 percent year-on-year in Q3 2014) as banking intermediation accelerated and real estate services were boosted by the demand for housing for the growing population. Furthermore, trade, hotels and restaurants also grew strongly (13.7 percent y-o-y) on the back of the growing population, the seasonal Ramadan effect as well as increased tourist activity. In contrast, the hydrocarbon sector contracted in the year to Q3 as a result of lower crude oil output and shutdowns for maintenance at gas facilities. A moratorium on new projects at Qatar’s largest gas field, the North Field, means that increases in gas production are likely to be limited. The strong growth momentum achieved in Q3 continues to be in line with the country’s overall development plan outlined in the National Vision 2030 and the National Development Strategy 2011-16. By investing heavily in major non-hydrocarbon projects the authorities are attracting a new wave
  • 4. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4 of expatriate workers to Qatar. Indeed, population continued its near double-digit growth (9.7 percent y-o-y) in November 2014, driven by the large ramp up in infrastructure spending. Accordingly, small and medium-sized enterprises, such as hotels, education, medical services, retail and restaurants are expected to flourish in order to cater to the growth of the population. As such, this increased level of population growth should boost aggregate domestic consumption and add to non-hydrocarbon GDP growth going forward.
  • 5. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5 Egypt pays further $350M to BG Group & $60M to UAE Dana Gas Press Release + NewBase Following the commitment from the Egyptian government to repay outstanding debts to the energy industry, LNG player BG Group, has received a further payment equivalent to US$350 million. This reduces the company’s domestic receivables balance in Egypt to around US$920 million, stands in the company’s statement. While the company has been impacted by the reduction of LNG exports from Egypt, it continues to investigate options for increasing the supply of gas and is working with the government on resolving the outstanding receivable balance. Dana Gas announced on Sunday, January 4, 2015, that it has received from a payment of $60 million (AED 220 million) the Egyptian Government, representing 28% of the total overdue receivables amounting to $212 million (AED 778 million). “This payment has been received in the form of $10 million and the balance in equivalent Egyptian pounds. All of this money will be used to pay for the Company’s overdue industry receivables, fund future investment requirements and address operational expenses in Egypt,” Dana announced in its statement to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). Earlier in 2014, Dana Gas, the Middle East's leading regional private sector natural gas Company, and the Egyptian Government inked the landmark Gas Production Enhancement Agreement (GPEA) which allows the Company to significantly enhance production and gradually recover its outstanding receivables in a phased manner over a three-year period going forward. “The GPEA agreement allows investments to be made in an important development program to eventually increase production from current levels of around 40,000 BOEPD from the Company’s Development Leases in the Nile Delta”, the statement revealed, adding that in accordance with the GPEA, Dana Gas will undertake a long-term staged work program over a seven-year period with project work expected to commence within the next few months. “The first export sales of incremental volumes of condensate will follow thereafter. Estimated incremental production during the period will be approximately 270 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 8 to 9 million barrels of condensate and around 450,000 tons of LPG. Peak production is expected to occur in 2017 with incremental daily production of approximately 160 MMscf gas and 5,600 barrels of condensate,” Dana highlighted. Commenting on the payment, Dana Gas CEO Patrick Allman-Ward stated: “We would like to thank the Egyptian Government for making this payment. We are also delighted to have concluded the Gas Production Enhancement Agreement and are working closely with the authorities to accelerate the implementation of the GPEA in order to fast-track enhanced production and the payment of the remaining outstanding receivables as quickly as possible going forward. Dana Gas is now preparing for the startup of the project and is in the process of securing materials and drilling rigs". BG plant in Egypt , LNG
  • 6. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6 Iraq supply most oil in decades 2.94 million barrels a day BYBLOOMBERG Oil supplies in Iraq surged to the highest level in decades, signaling no respite in early 2015 from the glut that has pushed crude prices to their lowest in five years Iraq exported 2.94 million barrels a day in December, the most since the 1980s, said Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad. The countries provided 15 per cent of the world's oil in November, according to the International Energy Agency Oil slumped 48 per cent in London in 2014, the steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis, as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) refused to pare output in response to the highest United States oil production in three decades. "With the latest news from Iraq, the focus on rising supply remains a key negative driver for oil," Ole Sloth Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said by e-mail. Brent crude futures, at about $56 a barrel on Friday, may slip below $50 this year, he said Iraq, Opec's second-biggest producer, reached a deal with its semi-autonomous Kurdish region last month over the Kurds' oil exports through Turkey, after years of disagreement on the territory's right to independently develop its energy resource. The agreement "looks to have had a positive effect on exports to the north," analysts at consultants JBC Energy in Vienna said in a report. The agreement allows the shipment of as much as 550,000 barrels a day of oil from northern Iraq to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, along a pipeline to the Turkish border operated by the Kurdistan Regional Government. This includes 300,000 barrels a day from the Kirkuk oilfields in northern Iraq, under the control of Kurdish forces since they moved to repel an offensive by militants from the Islamic State in June Iraq exported 5.579 million barrels of Kirkuk oil in December, equivalent to about 180,000 barrels a day, Oil Ministry spokesman Jihad said by text message. That's more than a six-fold increase from 836,000 barrels in November, according to the Oil Ministry . The process of pumping crude oil started from Kirkuk to Ceyhan In accordance with the agreement between the center and the region A source in the North Oil Company announced on Thursday the resumption of pumping crude oil from Kirkuk fields towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan for the first time through pipeline from the Kurdistan region in the light of the agreement signed between the central government and the Region. The source told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / that the NOC started this evening the process of pumping at a rate of 150 000 barrels of crude oil through the new pipeline, which runs from north-western Dibs district, passing through the Kurdistan Region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. He added that the pumping continues and it is hoped its arrival at Ceyhan in two days, the fact that the pipeline is empty and new and comes in light of the oil agreement between Baghdad and Erbil, which allows the export of 300 000 barrels of Kirkuk oil through the line, and was relying on the quantities produced from Kirkuk and Jambour oil fields .
  • 7. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7 CNPC, Guizhou Government Could Together Explore for Shale Gas China Daily + NewBase China's state owned energy major CNPC has expressed interest in exploring for shale gas in Guizhou in cooperation with the Guizhou government, reported China Daily Tuesday quoting a company official. Xu Bo, a researcher from the economic and technology research institute of CNPC made these remarks at a shale gas development and prospect seminar held in Guiyang in Guizhou province on December 27. According to the data from the Ministry of Land and Resources, Guizhou shale gas reserves rank in the top three in China and accounts for 12.79 percent of country's shale gas reserves, China Daily said. Some 80% of China's shale gas resources are controlled by state owned oil and gas giants such as CNPC and Sinopec. The government in its 2011-2015 shale gas development plan aimed to turn out more than 60 billion cubic meters of shale gas by 2020, but the goal was later cut by half to 30 billion cubic meters.
  • 8. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8 Victoria Oil & Gas Inks Gas Supply Deal in Cameroon Victoria OIL + NewBase Victoria Oil & Gas Plc (VOG), on Monday said it has signed a gas supply deal, through its wholly owned subsidiary, with ENEO Cameroon S.A (ENEO), Cameroon's integrated utility company. Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Gaz du Cameroun S.A. (GDC) has also signed a legally binding term sheet with ENEO and Altaaqa Alternative Solutions Projects DWC-LLC, a United Arab Emirates equipment supply company. Altaaqa will provide power generation equipment and has responsibility for importing and installing the gensets at the Douala power stations. GDC will work with Altaaqa to make the initial gas connections. The term sheets have been signed to enable the project to be expedited to meet ENEO requirements and it is expected that these will be replaced by full contracts in early 2015, Victoria said. “The Agreement with ENEO is a major gas supply contract for VOG in terms of scale and profitability with guaranteed minimum take or pay gas consumption at a fixed US$9/mmbtu over the 2 year contract term. The contract can be extended by mutual agreement,” the company added.
  • 9. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 9 US: Oil price crash claims first US LNG project casualty Reuters + NewBase Excelerate Energy’s Texan liquefied natural gas terminal plan has become the first victim of an oil price slump threatening the economics of US LNG export projects. A halving in the oil price since June has upended assumptions by developers that cheap US LNG would muscle into high-value Asian energy markets, which relied on oil p rices staying high to make the US supply affordable. The floating 8 million tonne per annum (mtpa) export plant moored at Lavaca Bay, Texas advanced by Houston-based Excelerate has been put on hold, according to regulatory filings obtained by Reuters. The project was initially due to begin exports in 2018. Excelerate’s move bodes ill for thirteen other US LNG projects, which have also not signed up enough international buyers, to reach a final investment decision (FID). Only Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Sempra’s Cameron LNG projects have hit that milestone. Back when LNG and crude oil prices were riding high in February, Excelerate, founded by Oklahoma billionaire George Kaiser, applied for permits to build the facility. Eleven months on, its submission to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on December 23 said that uncertainty generated by a steep decrease in oil prices has forced it to conduct a “strategic reconsideration of the economic value of the project” and to suspend all activities until April 1, 2015. “Due to the recent global market conditions, the company has determined that, at this time, this project no longer meets the financial criteria necessary in order for us to move forward with the capital investment,” a company spokesman said. Stiff economic headwinds are making new developments tough going. Prices that LNG projects can charge for long-term supply are falling from historic highs as new producers crowd the market, which is already oversupplied due to slowing demand and rising output that has seen spot Asian LNG prices halve this year. At the same time, major consumers from Japan to South Korea and China are seeking to offload some of their long-term LNG supply commitments, contributing to the glut. Excelerate Energy will update the regulator on the status of Lavaca Bay in April, 2015, according to the filing.
  • 10. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 10 The export plant operates under a tolling model, whereby the developer sells liquefaction capacity to LNG consumers who then must arrange for shipping to transport the fuel. Typically companies seek to lock-in buyers for around 85 per cent of a project’s capacity before reaching an investment decision. Excelerate hints in the filing that lackluster demand for capacity was behind the suspension, saying that only “renewed interest of potential counterparties” could get it moving again. Even before the oil price slide, US LNG projects were struggling to sign up the big Asian buyers needed to underpin multi-billion dollar investments, resorting finally to tapping vestiges of demand left in Europe. Seen in the light of plus-$100 a barrel oil, projects to liquefy and export US gas by ship promised major cost savings to Asian buyers reliant on costly oil-linked gas supplied by Australia and Qatar, which generated huge demand. The advantage of US export plants was that the LNG costs would reflect local benchmark Henry Hub gas prices, currently trading around $4 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), plus shipping and liquefaction costs. “The oil price plunge makes US LNG with prices linked to Henry Hub potentially uncompetitive with LNG from other sources especially those using an oil price linkage,” independent consultant Andy Flower said. Prior to the oil price crash, the US discount to rival Brent-linked LNG supply from Qatar and Australia was around $8-$9 per mmBtu.
  • 11. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage New Year starts with concern, uncertainty + Saudi Gazette + NewBase Concern, anxiety, uncertainty and apprehensions are gripping the crude markets as the New Year begins. Oil markets plunged further — sinking below $53, a level last seen during the Great Recession —as sun was setting on 2014. While Chinese economy was reportedly cooling — indicating a global slowdown — the US administration’s decision to open the door for expanded oil exports outside the US of the lightly processed form of crude known as condensate turned out to be the another proverbial nail in the coffin. After a long period of intense political debate, the Department of Commerce in Washington announced approving requests to ship overseas processed light oil products. Analysts believe the move could lead to over 1 million barrels of ultra-light US crude entering the global markets. “In practice this long-awaited move can open up the floodgates to substantial increases in exports by end 2015,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup bank was reported as saying in the press. Washington’s decision indicated a market share war was apparently on. Markets were not ready to absorb this jab. Prices had to plunge — and they did — to new lows. The latest decline in the crude price was also given a fillip by soft data emerging from China confirming that its industrial output shrunk in December — for the first time in seven months. The final HSBC/Market Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December came in at 49.6, down from 50.0 in November. And any reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Adding to the pressure is the fact that US crude inventories last week reportedly rose to almost 13 per cent above the five-year average level of 343.1 million barrels for this time of year, the highest for the period in data going back to 1982, Energy Information Administration data confirmed. How low could the markets go in 2015? Analysts are now perplexed. None can project with a certainty. Only guesstimates could be offered. In recent weeks, Minister Ali Al-Naimi, the wheeler and shaker of the global crude industry, has been underlining in rather clear terms: “It is not in the interest of Opec producers to cut their production, whatever the price is,” he told the weekly MEES. “Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.” The momentum at this juncture, however, remains firmly to the downside. “If this doesn’t hold, we could go back to price levels in late 2008 and early 2009 — down in the $30’s. There’s no reason why it couldn’t happen,” Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN was quoted as saying by Matt Egan of CNNMoney. “It really is pretty mathematical. There is more oil than we need,” Tamar Essner, energy analyst at Nasdaq Advisory Services told Egan.
  • 12. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12 Consequent to all these developments, the fear premium too has gone down —considerably — if not eradicated. Energy markets are no more itchy at the slightest hint of political tension in the oil rich region. Way back in 2011, when Libyan outage first hit headlines, markets went scary. Fear premium started creeping up and indeed rapidly. Not today any more. Libyan output is once again at the scary low level of around 300,000 bpd against the regular 1.5/16 million bpd. Energy Aspects Ltd. estimates Libyan output to have fallen below 300,000 barrels a day, the lowest since May, after militants shifted attacks to energy facilities, including the country’s largest oil export terminal. Yet the markets are taking the development in their own stride. The panic that one witnessed in 2011, as energy ministers and leaders gathered in Riyadh to discuss the Libyan outage, is nowhere to be seen today. Today is a different world. Calm is reigning in and environment has changed — rather drastically. Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service also is not too optimistic. “If panic hits those financial companies that have a lot of exposure to oil on the upside, the numbers you may think are burlesque or hyperbole like $35 or even $25 suddenly become real possibilities, if only for a brief period of time,” Kloza told CNN. “Anything can happen in 2015.” Many analysts now feel, that the current market behavior is the manifestation of the existing market fundamentals today and no immediate correction is on horizon. Jeremy Warner writing for The Telegraph feels that the current dip in oil market prices is not a short term scenario, rather he underlines that oil price will remain low for a long time, sinking to perhaps as little as $20 a barrel over the coming year before recovering a little. Because of a change in the supply model, this is a fundamental shift that will likely have long- lasting effects, says Mohamed El-Erian while writing for Bloomberg News. Through the years, markets have been conditioned to expect OPEC members to cut their production in response to a sharp drop in prices. Saudi Arabia played the role of the “swing producer.” However, in serving as the swing producer through the years, Saudi Arabia learned an important lesson, too: It isn’t easy to regain market share. This difficulty is greatly amplified now that significant non-traditional energy supplies, including shale, are hitting the market. “That simple calculation is behind Saudi Arabia’s insistence on not reducing production this time. Without such action by the No. 1 producer, and with no one else either able or willing to be the swing producer, OPEC is no longer in a position to lower its production even though oil prices have collapsed by about 50 percent since June,” Erian underlined. And then he argues that this change in the production model means it is up to natural market forces to restore pricing power to the oil markets. Low prices will lead to the gradual shutdown of what are now unprofitable (or inefficient in the words of Minister Naimi) oil fields and alternative energy supplies, and they will discourage investment in new capacity. At the same time, they will encourage higher demand for oil. This will all happen, but it will take a
  • 13. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13 while. In the meantime, as oil prices settle at significantly lower levels, economic behavior will change beyond the “one-off” impact, he argued. Oil markets stand much altered today. Although prices may go up, especially in the second half of the year, the fact remains that fundamentals are controlling the markets today. And the fundamentals are in for a long haul. A new era has dawned. And the markets are beginning to learn it rather the hard way. A new equilibrium will indeed be struck — at some point in time — yet that is some way off, one could now say with some certainty. Oil prices hit new lows; 5 years low AFP + NEwBase Oil prices extended their slide last week, kicking off the new year with 5.5-year low points, as tepid eurozone demand offset a pick-up in the US economy. The dollar strengthened, hitting demand for commodities like crude and metals priced in the US unit. Oil prices slumped to new 5.5- year low points Friday, the first trading day of 2015, on signs of weak manufacturing output in Europe. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in February, the US benchmark, struck $52.03 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for February tumbled to $55.48 - the lowest levels since mid-2009. “With global manufacturing weakening, from China to the USA to Europe, and Russia and Iraq making production gains, for oil the New Year is much the same as the old year—abysmal,” noted Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex traders. WTI lost 46% of its value this year and Brent was down 48%, with most of the freefall happening since June, when prices were above $100. Rising US and Canadian oil production has contributed to ample global supplies at a time of slowing growth in China, the world’s largest energy consumer, and other emerging-market economies, a recession in Japan and a near-stall in the 18-nation eurozone. A decision last month by Opec, which supplies about a third of the world’s oil, to leave output unchanged despite the price plunge also rattled the market, adding further pressure on prices. Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, pointed to expectations for a price rebound in 2015.
  • 14. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 14 He said the global supply glut could likely be alleviated by current low oil prices affecting “existing shale oil rigs, causing them to shut off, keeping US crude oil production in check”. “In 2015, we believe that crude demand would be linked to how China, Japan and the eurozone perform. If we start to see the situation for these countries improve, a reversal from the demand side could happen,” Ang added. By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February slumped to $57.02 a barrel from $60.23 on Wednesday of the previous week. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate or light sweet crude for February tumbled to $53.49 a barrel from $55.89. Non-Opec oil supply expected to rise by 1.36mbpd in 2015 The non-Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supply is expected to increase by 1.36mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to average 57.31mn bpd, according to Global Investment House. The new supply level is taking in to consideration after an upward revision 0.12mn bpd, Global said in a report. “The strong growth trend seen in 2014 is expected to continue into 2015 but at a slower pace, supported by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Americas, Latin America and China, and partly offset by declines in the FSU (former Soviet Union) and Africa,” the report said, adding the forecast is associated with a high level of risk. “While the expectation of capital expenditure in 2014 and 2015 indicates a rising trend, other risk factors, such as geopolitics, the environment, fiscal regimes, oil policies, prices and technical developments, will continue to impact supply growth expectations,” it added. Non-Opec supply is expected to experience an increase of 2.2mn bpd of gross capacity addition in 2015. On the demand side, Global said in 2015, projected growth was revised lower by 0.07mn bpd from last month’s report to settle at 1.12mn bpd. Downward adjustments took place in OECD Europe, Asia-Pacific, as well as in Latin America, leading to expected total world oil consumption of 92.26mn bpd, it said. The estimate for oil demand growth in 2014 has been revised down by 0.12mn bpd from the last monthly oil market report (MOMR) of Opec to stand at 0.93mn bpd. Oil demand growth in the OECD region has been trimmed down by 0.09mn bpd, it said, adding estimated non-OECD oil demand also experienced a downward revision, by 0.03mn bpd, largely due to less than expected oil consumption in other Asia and the Middle East. Total estimated demand in 2014 is estimated to be at 91.13mn bpd down from 91.19mn bpd in the last report. Opec has revised its 2014 non-Opec supply estimate growing 1.72mn bpd to reach a level of 55.95mn bpd. Upward revisions came from most of the main suppliers in November.
  • 15. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15 The US, Russia and Latin America all witnessed upward revisions from the last MOMR. The US production was revised up 0.04mn bpd; while Russia and Latin America received a 0.02mn bpd and 0.03mn bpd upward revisions respectively. However, China is expected to keep its production in line with last year’s average of 4.24mn bpd after it received a downward revision of 0.02mn bpd. The Opec has decided not to reduce oil production, despite a huge oversupply in world markets. Following a meeting in Vienna in November last year, it left its combined oil production unchanged at 30mn bpd.Saudi Arabia blocked calls from poorer members of the oil exporter group for production cuts with Iraq being the main provider of increases in Opec’s oil production; all of the GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council) members decreased their production. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar saw a production cuts amounting to 158,800 barrels a day in total.
  • 16. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your Guide to Energy events in your area
  • 17. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990 Mobile : +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 04 January 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 18