New base 22 october 2021 energy news issue 1465 by khaled al awadi

Copyright © 2021 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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NewBase Energy News 22 October No. 1465 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE keen to help India add more clean power
The National - Jennifer Gnana + NewBase
The UAE plans to expand its energy relationship with India, by helping the South Asian economy
increase its renewable energy capacity to 450 gigawatts by 2030, a government minister has said.
"Our partnership in energy has a great foundation that I want to build on," Dr Sultan Al Jaber,
Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, told India Cera Week forum organised by IHS
Markit..
"There are so many opportunities from the full range of our refined and petrochemical products to
new energies like zero-carbon, hydrogen. "And as India expands its renewable energy portfolio, the
UAE is keen to build on the investments we have already made to help you reach your 450-gigawatt
goal by 2030."
India, the world's third-largest importer of crude, is looking to transition away from its dependence
on hydrocarbons and more polluting fuels like coal by investing in renewable energy. The South
Asian economy is still dependent on coal to meet the bulk of its energy requirements.
India's energy security is fragile, with the country currently experiencing an electricity crisis amid a
shortage of coal. The issue has once again highlighted the need for a rapid transition to cleaner and
more sustainable fuels in the world's second-most populous country.
India, which has not revealed any plans to reach net-zero emissions, said it will have 175 gigawatts
of renewable energy capacity by 2022. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which is also headed by
Dr Al Jaber, has previously expressed interest in India's nascent hydrogen sector.

In April, the UAE company said it was interested in exploring opportunities in hydrogen with India's
public and private sector entities. Adnoc can help India "navigate the global energy transition", Dr
Al Jaber said at the time.
"We believe hydrogen offers promise and potential as a genuinely zero-carbon fuel." The alternative
fuel, which has risen in prominence in several markets around the world, is being prioritised for
development in the UAE, Opec's third-largest oil producer.
In August, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a national hydrogen mission saying: “The
thing that is going to help India with a quantum leap in terms of climate is the field of green
hydrogen."
Under the Paris climate change agreement, India, which is the world's third-largest carbon emitter,
has pledged to reduce its emissions intensity to between 33 per cent and 35 per cent by 2030, from
2005 levels.
Separately, at the forum, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said
the country needed to increase investments in oil and gas, as well as renewables to meet its growing
demand for energy.
"There is a need to continue investing in oil and gas. But in addition to that is also the fact that the
transition to green energy is also imposing a cost," he said. Rising prices of crude, gas and
petroleum products will impair economic recovery from a Covid-induced crunch harder for countries
like India, he added.
Global prices for oil are at a three-year high, with the price of gas nearly 90 per cent higher on an
annual basis. Indian consumers have been particularly hit hard, with prices for petrol and diesel
reaching record highs on Wednesday.
"We're about 15 per cent higher on petrol. If prices do not remain predictable, stable and affordable,
economic recovery could prove to be fragile and all the efforts that we are making in the area of
reviving economic activity could be undermined, which will affect everyone," Mr Singh said.

Russia Signals Europe Won’t Get Extra Gas Without Nord Stream 2
Bloomberg + NewBase
Russia is signaling that it won’t go out of its way to offer European consumers extra gas to ease the
current energy crisis unless it gets something in return: regulatory approval to start shipments
through the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
In exchange for upping supplies, Russia wants to get German and European Union approval to
begin using the pipeline to Europe, according to people close to state-run gas giant Gazprom and
the Kremlin.
“We cannot ride to the rescue just to compensate for mistakes that we didn’t commit,” Konstantin
Kosachyov, a top pro-Kremlin legislator in the upper house of parliament, said in an interview,
without specifying what Russia is seeking.
“We’re fulfilling all our contracts, all our obligations. Everything on top of that should be a subject for
additional voluntary and mutually beneficial agreements.”
As if to underline the point, the pipeline’s operator said Monday its first line is full of so-called
technical gas and ready to begin operation, though it can’t ship it until regulatory approval is granted.
That announcement came hours after European gas prices spiked on news that Gazprom had again
bid for only a small amount of capacity to ship the fuel to Europe via other routes.
As surging fuel costs have caused increasing economic havoc, pressure has grown on Russia,
Europe’s largest supplier, to pump more. Extra Russian gas is seen as the main way to avoid an
even deeper supply crunch in the middle of the winter.
But with relations with Europe in the deep freeze after years of sanctions and other tensions, there’s
no appetite in the Kremlin to do any favors. Although exports to Europe are up this year from last

year’s depressed levels, they lag those seen in 2019, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy
Studies.
Daily flows have dropped in October and Gazprom has been slow to refill storage facilities it owns
in Europe, adding to upward pressure on prices. Russia has blamed an overly hasty shift to relying
on spot markets and alternative energy sources for the crisis.
At an energy conference in Moscow last week, President Vladimir Putin seemed to suggest Russia
could offer more gas. But he also lamented the slow progress on getting approval for Nord Stream
2, a process that could take until well into next year.
German regulators are currently reviewing its application for certification but have said their initial
decision could come only in January, after which the European Commission would also have to give
the go-ahead.
“If we could increase deliveries through this route, this would substantially ease tension on the
European energy market,” Putin said. “However, we cannot do this so far because of the
administrative barriers.”
One of his highest-priority projects, the pipeline has drawn criticism and sanctions from the U.S., as
well efforts by Poland and Ukraine to block its completion. Russian officials have for months denied
allegations that they were deliberately holding back gas supplies to Europe to push for approval to
use Nord Stream 2.
After years of tensions with Europe, Russian authorities are unlikely to agree to up gas supplies
without ironclad assurances that the new pipeline will be allowed to operate, the people close to the
situation said. Additional volumes would avoid the traditional routes across Ukraine, the people said.

UK: QatarEnergy and Shell join forces to pursue investments in
hydrogen solutions …. Source: QatarEnergy
QatarEnergy and Shell have signed an agreement to pursue joint investments in blue and green
hydrogen projects in the United Kingdom.
The partners will target integrated and scalable opportunities in key sectors where hydrogen could
help decarbonize, especially around industrial cluster development and also for the transport sector,
with a focus on the London metropolitan area. The collaboration will exploit both companies’
expertise in delivering large and technically complex energy projects.
The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the UK Global Investment Summit, hosted by HM
The Queen and the Prime Minister, and attended by the world’s leading businesses and investors
in the UK.
Commenting on the agreement, His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for
Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy said, 'This agreement does not only reinforce
the long lasting and strategic partnership between QatarEnergy and Shell,
but also creates a viable path for innovation and investments in low carbon fuels and technologies
across the UK’s energy sector, a key area of investment for QatarEnergy. This agreement also
builds on QatarEnergy’s commitment to provide reliable access to cleaner energy globally.'
Ben Van Beurden, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell plc, also
commented, 'I am delighted to deepen an already strong
relationship with QatarEnergy. Hydrogen will play an
important role in helping society reach net zero and
momentum is growing. QatarEnergy’s expertise, in
collaboration with Shell’s, will support the UK’s energy
transition and help propel this fast-growing sector.'
This is the first agreement on hydrogen between
QatarEnergy and Shell. It establishes an important
framework for collaboration and joint investment to
develop hydrogen solutions in the United Kingdom.

U.S. coal-fired electricity will increase for the 1st time since 2014
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-
Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity
from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and
relatively stable coal prices. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal
generation in the United States since 2014.
Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States.
In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative
costs. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas
often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.
Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired
plants, natural gas-fired generation
can have an economic advantage
even if natural gas prices are
slightly higher than coal prices.
Between 2015 and 2020, the cost
of natural gas delivered to electric
generators remained relatively low
and stable. This year,
however, natural gas prices have
been much higher than in recent
years. The year-to-date delivered
cost of natural gas to U.S. power
plants has averaged $4.93 per
million British thermal units (Btu),
more than double last year’s price.

Source: U .S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
The overall decline in U.S. electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal
plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the
utilization rate (known as the capacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before
2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices
have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average.
Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year,
this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue. The electric power sector has retired
about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has
come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are
relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the
recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline
about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and
slightly lower natural gas prices.

Asia to become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), we project that non-OECD countries in Asia
will collectively become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050. In 2020, the countries of OECD
Europe were collectively the largest importers of natural gas, followed by Japan and South Korea
combined, and then non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India.
All of these groups of countries import natural gas because their consumption exceeds their
domestic supply. We project that continued economic growth in non-OECD Asia, led primarily by
China and India, will more than double net imports of natural gas into the region by 2050.
To meet the natural gas needs of these growing economies, we project that global natural gas
production will increase steadily along with exports from the three largest natural gas producers: the
United States, Russia, and the Middle East.
In our IEO2021 Reference case, the United States, Russia, and the Middle East continue to expand
natural gas production through 2050, and the United States remains the largest natural gas
producer worldwide, producing almost 43 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2050 compared with 34 Tcf in
2020.
The United States, Russia, and the Middle East all have large proven reserves of both natural gas
and oil as well as the processing and transportation infrastructure to support production increases.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and transportation vessels create an outlet for natural gas
produced in the United States and the Middle East to reach markets in Asia and Europe.
We project that Russia, in particular, will show the largest growth in net exports, more than doubling
over the projection period to remain the largest net exporter of natural gas by 2050, at more than
14 Tcf.

Close proximity to Europe and Asia will facilitate growth in Russia’s net natural gas exports through
established pipeline infrastructure, potential future pipeline additions, and liquefied natural gas
exports.
During the next 10 years, we project that the United States will see its most rapid period of growth;
net exports of U.S. natural gas nearly double as the United States expands its LNG infrastructure
and produces natural gas at high volumes.

NewBase 22 October 11-2021 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices drop; Brent on track for first weekly dip in seven
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell on Friday with Brent poised for its first weekly dip in seven weeks as demand for oil
products in power generation cooled off amid easing coal and gas prices, while a forecast for a mild
U.S. winter also weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures dropped 50 cents, or 0.6%, to $84.11 a barrel at 0645 GMT, extending a $1.21
slump in the previous session. Brent touched a three-year high of $86.10 on Thursday, but was on
track to slip 0.9% in the week, the first weekly dip since Sept. 3.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $82.01 a barrel,
following a 92-cent loss on Thursday.
Oil price special
coverage

“Crude oil has witnessed some correction as part of a sell-off across commodities amid renewed
virus concerns and forecast of a milder winter in the United States,” said Ravindra Rao, vice
president, commodities at Kotak Securities.
Winter weather in much of the United States is expected to be warmer than average, according to
a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast. The market hit multi-year highs earlier
in the week on worries about coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred
fuel-switching to diesel and fuel oil for power.
“Crude oil’s sharp rise may make it vulnerable to profit taking, however, a substantial correction may
not happen unless global energy crisis subsides,” Rao said. “Global gas and coal prices have eased
but concerns persist with tighter market and higher demand winter season around the corner.”
U.S. crude found support earlier this week as investors eyed low crude stocks at the major Cushing
storage hub in Oklahoma.
“There are clear concerns over the inventory drain that we are seeing at the WTI delivery hub,
Cushing,” ING commodities strategists said in a note.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude stocks at Cushing fell to
31.2 million barrels, their lowest level since October 2018.
“In a broader future, oil prices should move higher on its supply and demand relationship, but the
bullish sentiment provoked by a surprise draw of U.S. inventory may have been digested,” said
Leona Liu, analyst at Singapore-based DailyFX.

European Gas Prices Fall on Forecasts for Mild, Windy Weather
(Bloomberg)
European natural gas prices fell on expectations that mild and windy weather will provide some
relief to the region’s strained energy system.
Warm temperatures at the start of the heating season are set to temper demand, pushing prices
lower despite signals from Russia that it won’t ship more gas without quick approval of its
controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Strong winds in the U.K. and Germany may also prompt
record power output from turbines on Thursday, further reducing the need for gas-fired plants.
“Starting from November, with each month that is warmer than normal, the global gas balances will
ease marginally, helping to unwind a large portion of the recent rally,” JP Morgan Chase & Co. said
in a note.
U.K. wind power generation -- blamed in part for the escalating energy crisis when the wind didn’t
blow in the summer -- rose to a two-week high on Tuesday. It accounted for as much as 41% of the
total electricity mix, above natural gas with about a third, according to National Grid Plc data.

Dutch front-month gas futures fell 4.3% to settle at 89.93 euros a megawatt-hour in Amsterdam.
The U.K. equivalent slid 4.8% to 225.91 pence a therm. Carbon futures and benchmark German
power prices also declined.
Gas prices briefly rose earlier on Tuesday as Russia signaled it wants German and European Union
approval to begin using its Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for boosting supplies. German
regulators are reviewing Russia’s application but have said an initial decision may come only in
January, after which the European Commission must also give the go-ahead.
Liquefied natural gas deliveries to Europe also remain muted, with Asia commanding a premium to
attract available cargoes. But Europe will continue to tap the LNG market irrespective of volumes
from Russia, SEB Group said. “We see that more natgas from Russia would only calm the nerves
a bit,” SEB said in a note.

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world – Oct - 22- -2021
EIA projects that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will
rise over the next 30 years
U.S. EIA, International Energy Outlook 2021
In our International Energy Outlook 2021, we project that global energy-related carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions will increase for countries both inside and outside of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the next 30 years under current laws and regulations.
Between 2020 and 2050, we project that total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5%
(600 million metric tons) in OECD countries (which generally have slowly growing economies) and
by 35% (8 billion metric tons) in non-OECD countries (which generally have rapidly growing
economies).
We project that carbon intensity, measured as emissions per unit of primary energy consumption,
will decrease in both OECD and non-OECD countries through 2050. A region’s fuel mix largely
determines its carbon intensity, and our projection of carbon intensity decreases around the world
as use of renewable energy grows and use of coal is reduced in many countries.
We project average aggregate carbon intensity in non-OECD countries to be higher than in the
OECD over the next 30 years because non-OECD countries will likely continue to use primarily
fossil fuel-fired generation to support their more rapid economic growth over this time.

We also project that energy intensity, the energy consumed per dollar of GDP, will decline globally
through 2050. Driven by technology and shifts away from energy-intensive industries in many
economies, increased energy efficiency results in lower energy intensity. In the non-OECD region,
economic growth results in a faster decline of energy intensity than in the OECD region.
By 2050, the energy intensity of OECD and non-OECD countries becomes more similar as some
non-OECD countries increase their share of less energy-intensive industries and their technology
use becomes more similar to OECD countries.
Emissions-related policies also influence projections in energy-related CO2 emissions. Required
efficiency, fuel, and technology goals are generally more prevalent in OECD countries, contributing
to the relatively slower growth in emissions for the OECD relative to the non-OECD countries.

Production
Supply of petroleum and other liquids continues increasing in both OPEC and non‐OPEC
regions to meet growing world demand through 2050 across cases
The Reference case projects continued growth in global liquid fuels consumption and production; High
Economic Growth and High Oil Price side cases require unprecedented levels of petroleum and other
liquids feedstock production
To meet the anticipated growth in liquid fuels consumption in the Reference case, we expect a
steady increase in crude oil and lease condensate production throughout the projection period.
Crude oil is the primary raw material used in the petroleum refining process, and it is a necessary
precursor for many finished petroleum products (for example, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil) demanded
by all sectors of the economy.
In the Reference case, both OPEC and non‐OPEC oil production grow over the projection period,
but OPEC production grows at almost three times the rate of non‐OPEC production between 2020
and 2050.
To meet increasing demand, countries will need to rely on increased exploration (to identify
additional resources), increased drilling (to harvest new and proven reserves), and technology
advances .
The IEO2021 side cases represent alternative assumptions about macroeconomic growth and
crude oil prices. In all five of these cases, liquid fuels consumption is higher in 2050 than in 2020,
reaching a high of 64% above 2020 levels in the High Economic Growth case.
OPEC and non‐OPEC resources are adequate to meet demand levels in all five cases. The
IEO2021 Reference and side cases assume current laws and regulations, including for carbon
emissions, and assume some level of geopolitical stability and cooperation to reach these levels of
production.
Although consumption in the Reference case reaches approximately 125 million barrels per day
(b/d) by 2050, consumption is highest in the High Economic Growth case, where it reaches

approximately 151 million b/d of total liquid fuels in 2050, exhibiting significant growth from current
levels. Canada, Iran, Iraq, and Russia all have large undeveloped crude oil resources and so could
expand production to help meet 2050 global demand in the High Economic Growth case.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United States are also large resource holders, their resources have
been more systematically developed and likely have less room to expand beyond their historical
levels of production.
Natural Gas
Natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) are a coproduct of natural gas production, and in our Reference
case, NGPL production grows approximately 50% by 2050—a faster rate than crude oil
production—driven by high demand for NGPLs in the industrial sector.
NGPLs include ethane, liquefied petroleum gases (propane, normal butane, and isobutane), and
natural gasoline. These products commonly serve as industrial feedstocks across the world and are
critical in the production of plastics and other petrochemicals.
Ethane and propane are key industrial feedstocks used to produce ethylene and propylene, which
support a wide variety of plastics, fibers, coatings, labels, packaging, cleaners, and other
manufactured goods. Propane is also used as a residential heating source, for crop drying, and in
the transportation sector.

Normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline serve as industrial feedstocks. Normal butane and
natural gasoline are also used in the transportation sector. In recent years, the infrastructure to
process NGPLs and turn them into high‐demand consumer and industrial materials has grown. This
growth will support an increase in supply of NGPLs.

NewBase Energy News 22 October 2021 - Issue No. 1465 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General
Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC
area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder
of NewBase Energy news articles issues, an international consultant, advisor,
ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste
management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and
sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities &
gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas
pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted &
finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements.
Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass
energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous
conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-
in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular
articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste
management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference
for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC
leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.

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