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NewBase June 04 - 2017 - Issue No. 1038 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
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New base 1038 special 04 june 2017 energy news
1.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase June 04 - 2017 - Issue No. 1038 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Iraq's Crude Exports Hit 2017 High Before OPEC Cuts Extension Bloomberg - Anthony Dipaola Oil tankers shipped the most crude from Iraq in six months in May, when OPEC’s second-biggest producer was negotiating with the group’s other members to persist with supply constraints to shore up the global market. Tankers loaded 122 million barrels of Iraqi crude at ports in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea last month, according to vessel-tracking and shipping agent data gathered by Bloomberg. The daily outflow of 3.93 million barrels was just shy of the record, set in November, and exceeded that of October, the baseline month for cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Ambitious goals to keep expanding its output capacity, coupled with an economy that’s still reeling from decades of bloody conflict, mean Iraq is among the most closely monitored nations for compliance to OPEC’s curbs. Along with Russia and other non-member oil suppliers, the exporter club is seeking to shrink a crude glut that’s holding prices at about $50 a barrel, less than half where they were three years ago. “Iraq is the big one in terms of growing production and not having too much inclination to cut,” said Robin Mills, head of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy. “Out of the OPEC members, it’s the one to watch.”
2.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 The country’s state oil marketing company, known as SOMO, sells crude via the southern port of Basra in the Persian Gulf as well as through a pipeline to Turkey. The semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government independently ships oil that it produces at fields in the north of the country via Turkish ports. The flows captured by tanker tracking are for both. Sales from federally operated fields excluding those from the KRG averaged 3.262 million barrels a day, the Oil Ministry in Baghdad said on Thursday. Tanker tracking shows those flows for that oil at 3.31 million barrels a day. Exports from neighboring Iran also surged in May, reaching 2.2 million barrels a day, compared with 1.82 million in April, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Shipments from Libya, unbounded by OPEC restrictions, are at a 2 1/2 year high. OPEC’s production limits took effect in January, initially for a period of six months, with OPEC and partners agreeing May 25 to another nine months of reductions. While it could be because of extra output, Iraq’s gain in May can also be explained in part by catching up on reduced flows in April, when a damaged jetty was under repair. Iraq agreed in the OPEC deal to cut output by 210,000 barrels a day from its October level. While exports are not a perfect match for output, the market watches them closely to get an idea of production. Iraq doesn’t have the same capacity to store crude as some other producer nations, meaning that what’s pumped out of the ground is piped relatively quickly onto ships. Oman: Masirah Oil eyes early production from Block 50 Oman Observer
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Masirah Oil Limited (MOL), the operator and 100 per cent owner of Block 50 offshore Oman’s east coast, is weighing plans for the appraisal and early development of potential hydrocarbon resources in the concession. It follows the completion last week of an exploratory well that confirmed the presence of a working petroleum system —the first such hydrocarbon discovery off the Sultanate’s eastern seaboard. The Karamah#1 well was drilled by the cantilever jack-up rig Aban VII to a total depth of 3,320 metres, with hydrocarbon shows in several stratigraphic zones. The target was formations located about 13 kilometres from the groundbreaking GAS-1 well which, in early 2014, stumbled upon hydrocarbons for the first time in the 17,000 sq kilometre concession. Commenting on the new findings garnered from the latest well, a top official representing one of the key stakeholders in Masirah Oil Limited, said: “We are encouraged by the further proof of prospectivity and active petroleum system in this vast block, confirmed by results from our last three wells GAS-1, Manarah-1 and Karamah#1. Now that the exploration phase in Block 50 is concluded, the next phase will be to draw up plans for appraisal and possibly early production from the block as soon as possible,” Dan Broström, Executive Chairman of Rex International Holding Limited, stated. In a statement, Broström said the hydrocarbons found during drilling had validated predictions derived from the company’s proprietary Rex Virtual Drilling technology. According to Masirah Oil, an extensive logging programme was conducted throughout the drilling operation, which further proved the presence of a working petroleum system in the block. Masirah Oil Limited is owned by Rex Oman Ltd (88.90 per cent), Lime Petroleum Plc (0.90 per cent), Petroci Holdings (5.20 per cent) and Schroder & Co Banque SA (5.00 per cent). Significantly, confirmation of the presence of the petroleum system off the eastern seaboard buoys hopes for new hydrocarbon finds in Oman’s largely unexplored offshore domain. Adjacent to Block 50 on its southern boundary is Block 52, the largest of Oman’s oil and gas concessions, which was jointly awarded last month to Italian supermajor Eni and Oman Oil Company Exploration & Production (OOCEP). Saudi Aramco to invest in gas and LNG at global level - EM Reuters + NewBase
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Khalid Al-Falih, minister of energy, industry and mineral resources, has urged attendees of an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, to invest in research and development of petrochemicals and renewable energy, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said. The minister, who was addressing the 21st St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Friday, stressed the key role played by new technologies in speeding up the diversification of energy sources and minimizing the current risks on climate. Al-Falih joined the session titled “Mechanisms of Global Economy — Hydrocarbon Energy: Will it become a Legacy of the Past or Basics of Development?” Speakers focused on the importance of commitment to the recent oil production reduction agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC members for another nine months. The Saudi minister said OPEC and non-OPEC members in the reduction agreement will study the possibility of increasing the reduction rates in their meeting in November. He ruled out that the global peak on oil demand will occur before 2050. He also said Saudi Aramco will invest in the production of gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the global level. The forum speakers also stressed that oil will remain a key energy source in the long term and that it should not be looked at as the sole pollution source. They also emphasized the need to adopt a comprehensive plan to deal with climate change. Since its launch in 1997, the forum has become a leading global platform for representatives of the business community to meet and discuss the key economic issues facing Russia, emerging markets and the world as a whole. Saudi Arabia to study participating in Russia's Arctic LNG project: TASS Saudi Arabia will look into the possibility of taking part in Russia's Arctic LNG project, TASS news agency cited Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih as saying on Friday. Russian state fund would welcome Saudi investment in oil driller Eurasia The state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) would welcome Saudi investments in Russia's largest oilfield services company Eurasia Drilling, RDIF Chief Executive Kirill Dmitriev told Reuters on Friday. RDIF announced on Thursday it was acquiring a minority stake in the company in a consortium with a United Arab Emirates investment fund and Chinese partners. "We would welcome the participation of Saudi partners in investments in Eurasia Drilling. We believe that if this company began working in Saudi Arabia, it would be a good example of cooperation," Dmitriev said on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Leading oil producers Russia and Saudi Arabia are increasing cooperation after helping to bring about a global deal to cut oil production, aimed at supporting the price of crude.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 In 2015, Eurasia Drilling Co (EDC) delisted its shares from the London Stock Exchange after the collapse of a deal for the world's leading oilfield services provider Schlumberger NV to buy a stake in it. EDC is Russia's largest private oil services company. Sources told Reuters in March that RCIF - set up by two government-backed investment vehicles, RDIF and China Investment Corp - was looking to team up with Mubadala to buy around 13-15 percent of EDC's new shares. Dmitriev said the fund and partners were buying a minority stake, but declined to provide details. He said the fund would likely remain an investor in EDC within the next five to seven years and aimed to help the company develop in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will consider investing in Eurasia Drilling, the TASS news agency cited Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih as saying on Friday. Falih also told TASS that the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund, and RDIF planned to create a joint fund to invest in the energy sector, buying into existing assets and helping Russia to invest in Saudi Arabia. This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who oversees defence and energy. Dmitriev said that during the visit, the crown prince's delegation had talks with a large number of Russian companies that were interested in investing in Saudi Arabia. "I think that already this year, we will see examples of Russian companies that will receive important contracts in Saudi Arabia," Dmitriev told Reuters UK: Buchan oil production vessel to be decommissioned Source: Repsol Sinopec Resources UK
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 After 36 years and almost 150mm barrels of oil, the Buchan Alpha facility in the UK North Sea ceased production, as planned, on 12 May 2017. Buchan Alpha is a semi-submersible moored floating production vessel (originally a drilling rig). Decommissioning plans are well developed and ultimate dismantling and recycling of the vessel was competitively tendered. Repsol Sinopec R esources UK has announced the contract has been awarded to Veolia to be carried out at its Dales Voe site in Lerwick, Shetland. Bill Dunnett, Managing Director, Repsol Sinopec Resources UK said: 'Buchan Alpha has made a huge contribution to the UK economy throughout its life, producing more than three times the volume of oil that was originally predicted. We are pleased the decommissioning phase will create further sustained value for the UK supply chain and additional employment for Shetland, building a new model for full facility decommissioning in the UK. 'I would also like to pay tribute to the offshore asset team, who have safely and professionally operated this facility up to its planned cessation of operations date and will continue to do so through decommissioning.' Paul Wheelhouse, Scottish Government Minister for Business, Innovation and Energy said: 'This is great news, which clearly demonstrates the skills, capabilities and competitiveness of Scotland’s supply chain in securing this contract. Decommissioning is an emerging, but growing, activity, with £17.6 billion expected to be spent in the North Sea over the next decade, as mature fields reach this stage in their project lifecycle. We are already seeing Scottish-based firms seizing opportunities, and securing the lion’s share of value from a range of decommissioning activities, including project management of decommissioning programmes and high value, well-plugging and abandonment activity. 'The Scottish Government is committed to supporting Scottish industry to win decommissioning activity such as the Buchan Alpha. The £5 million Decommissioning Challenge Fund and the Decommissioning Action Plan developed by our enterprise agencies, build on the Programme for Government commitment to identify investment opportunities, with a view to improving capacity at Scottish ports and increasing the economic return to Scotland from a variety of removal, disposal and dismantling activities to add to the success in well-plugging and abandonment and other stages of the process.' Mozambique: Eni launches Coral South project in Mozambique Source: Eni
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 The President of the Republic of Mozambique Filipe Nyusi, the Minister of Mineral Resources Leticia Klemens, and Eni’s CEO Claudio Descalzi, participated June 1 in the launch of the Coral South LNG project implementation phase. Managers from the partner companies were also in attendance, including CNPC’s Wang Yilin, Galp’s Carlos Gomes da Silva, Kogas’ Seunghoon Lee and ENH’s Omar Mitha. During the ceremony all the drilling, construction and installation contracts for the production facilities were signed, as well as agreements with the Mozambican government for the regulatory framework and financing of the project. Coral South is the first project in the development of the considerable gas resources discovered by Eni in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin. This achievement comes just three years since the drilling of the final exploration well in a country that is a newcomer to the global gas market. Despite the challenging price environment in the last few years, the launch of this project is testament to the quality of the assets in place and to Eni’s technological leadership in the development of deep- water gas fields. The Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) unit, a symbol of engineering expertise, will have a capacity of around 3.4 MTPA (million tons per year) and will be the first FLNG in Africa and only the third globally. The FLNG facilities construction will be financed through Project Finance covering around 60% of its entire cost. This is the first Project Finance ever arranged in the world for a liquefaction floater. The financing agreement has been subscribed by 15 major international banks and guaranteed by 5 Export Credit Agencies.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi commented: 'As the world transitions to a low-carbon energy mix, Eni believes that the use of gas is critical to achieving a more sustainable future. Our ambition to become a global integrated gas and LNG player is based on working alongside key partners such as Mozambique. The Coral South Project will deliver a reliable source of energy while contributing to Mozambique’s economic development. This partnership approach with our hosting countries is the foundation on which our joint sustainable growth strategy is built.' The Coral field, discovered in May 2012, is located within Area 4 and contains approx. 450 billion cubic meters (16 TCF) of gas in place. In October 2016, Eni and its Area 4 partners signed an agreement with BP for the sale of the entire volumes of LNG produced by the Coral South project for a period of over twenty years. Eni is the operator of Area 4, through its participation in Eni East Africa (EEA), which holds a 70% participating interest in the concession while Portugal’s Galp Energia, South Korea’s Kogas and Mozambique’s Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), each hold 10% stake. Eni holds 71.4% shares of Eni East Africa with China’s CNPC holding 28.6%. In March 2017 Eni signed an agreement to sell 50% of its shares in EEA to ExxonMobil, which will be completed subject to satisfaction of a number of conditions precedent, including clearance from Mozambican and other regulatory authorities. In the province of Cabo Delgado and in Maputo Eni has engaged in a vast program of activities to the benefit of the population, including access to energy, access to water, health and sanitation, and education and training activities. Russia: Gazprom Neft and Shell sign MoU on the joint implementation of oil and gas projects Source: Gazprom Neft
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Gazprom Neft and Shell have used the occasion of this year’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum to sign a Memorandum of Understanding. Vadim Yakovlev, First Deputy CEO, Gazprom Neft, and Olivier Lazar, Country Chair, Shell Russia, have both put their signatures to a document confirming both companies’ intention of promoting further cooperation. Both sides have confirmed their intention of continuing negotiations on the Khanty-Mansiysky Oil and Gas Union’s provisional assessment of a range of non-shale oil deposits in Eastern Siberia, including the Achimovsky deposits in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. In addition to this, Gazprom Neft and Shell have committed to undertake geological prospecting of license blocks in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, adjoining licence blocks owned by Salym Petroleum Development N.V.,* through that enterprise. Vadim Yakovlev, First Deputy CEO, Gazprom Neft, commented: 'Gazprom Neft and Shell have many years’ experience of successful collaboration on practically all areas of the business. Our joint enterprises are not only successfully undertaking production activities in one of the most important regions for Gazprom Neft — the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug — but have also taken on the role of leading the industry in technology, implementing cutting-edge strategies for improving oil recovery, and playing an active role in finding effective methods of working with hard-to-recover reserves. The Memorandum of Understanding signed today confirms our wider interest in further development, together.' * Gazprom Neft and Shell are participating on a parity basis in two upstream joint ventures - Salym Petroleum Development and the Khanty-Mansiysk Oil and Gas Union. Salym Petroleum Development has been developing the Salym group of oil fields (with total recoverable reserves of 140 million tonnes) in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug since 2003. Based within Salym Petroleum Development, work is currently underway on a pilot enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project unique to Russia involving the injection of a three-component mixture into the reservoir, allowing the production of a up to 30 percent more from the subsoil. The Khanty-Mansiysk Oil and Gas Union, established in 2013, is involved in the geological prospecting and evaluation of non-shale oilfields in Western Siberia. In addition to these projects, Gazprom Neft and Shell also work together in supplying marine (bunkering) fuel. NewBase 04 June 2017 Khaled Al Awadi Oil price special coverage The Samotlor Field, located at Lake Samotlor in Nizhnevartovsk district, is one of the fields which has led to the development of the Khanty Mansiysk region. It is the largest oil field of Russia and the sixth biggest in the world and was believed to hold 55 billion barrels of oil in place when discovered in 1965, but now is probably 80% depleted. (Source: Vladimir Melnikov/Dreamstime.com)
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil drops on fears of more U.S. drilling after climate deal withdrawal Reuters - Julia Simon | NEW YORK Crude fell more than 1 percent on Friday, heading for a second straight week of losses, on worries that U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from an international climate accord will spur further domestic production and contribute to a persistent global oversupply. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 61 cents at $50.02 per barrel by 2:00 p.m. (1800 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures fell 62 cents to $47.74 per barrel. Both contracts were on track for a weekly loss of about 4 percent. Market analysts are troubled by a growth in U.S. crude production that is straining efforts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce global oversupply. U.S. drillers this week added 11 rigs, in a record stretch of 20 straight weeks of additions, data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed. Trump's withdrawal from the Paris agreement, the landmark 2015 global pact to fight climate change, drew condemnation from Washington's allies and many in the energy industry - and sparked fears that U.S. oil production could expand more rapidly than it is currently. “Trump seems to be removing any barriers he can find that would obstruct growth of crude oil or natural gas,” said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA in New York. "It’s kind of ironic because by doing that you’re encouraging more volumes to come out of the ground." U.S. crude production last week was up by nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from year-earlier levels and hit 9.34 million bpd, its highest since August 2015.[EIA/S] U.S. output is expected to keep rising, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts production of about 10 million bpd next year. Igor Sechin, chief of Russia's largest oil producer, Rosneft, said U.S. producers could add up to 1.5 million bpd to world oil output next year.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Last week OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million bpd in supply until March 2018. Oil prices are down around 10 percent since the extension, and OPEC officials have since suggested they may deepen the cuts. Investors have been edgy due to the slow decline in inventories worldwide. U.S. inventories, however, fell 6.4 million barrels last week, their eighth straight weekly drawdown. "That's relatively higher than the average draws we’ve seen, so you would have thought that crude would have fared a little better," said CFRA's Glickman. More oil output cuts possible Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said further oil output cuts could be needed in the future but that OPEC and other leading producers would assess the market situation in July, Russia's TASS news agency reported on Saturday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other nations led by Russia agreed last week to extend a deal to limit global oil output for a further nine months, until March 2018. A committee set up to monitor the cuts is set to meet in Russia in July. Falih, who has been on a visit to Russia this week, said it would then be able to judge if the cuts had been effective in supporting oil prices which have halved in the last three years on the back of a global oversupply glut. "We have to see the market and I think by the end of June, in July we will see that the action we have taken has a big impact," TASS quoted him as saying. "If for some reason we need to do more, we will consider doing more including ... bigger cuts." "Nothing is off the table but today nothing is on the table either. We made a deal," he added. Russia and Saudi Arabia have recently reached a detente in a long-running rivalry that has seen the world's two biggest oil exporters spearhead the global pact to cut output. Speaking alongside his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Moscow last week, Falih said he saw their new cooperation lasting after the current output agreement expires.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 04 June 2017 Oil's New World Disorder By Liam Denning One of the more consistent refrains from President Trump is that the U.S.-led world order, in place since the end of World War II, just might not be worth the money and effort. Americans, the president has said, "cannot be the policemen of the world". Bluster? Maybe. But if it isn't, then it's a big deal for a vital market that grew up under the Pax Americana: oil. Modern oil drilling began in the late 19th century, but Homo Hydrocarbon truly evolved after 1945. While it took roughly seven decades for global oil demand to reach around 10 million barrels a day by the end of World War II, the next seven decades saw demand surge to almost 100 million barrels a day. Roughly half the world's barrels have to be shipped across the ocean. And this global supply chain owes a lot to a peculiar bargain struck by America with its allies amid the ruins of 1945. In return for joining a security system managed from Washington, D.C., countries could participate in free trade backed by the muscle of the U.S. Navy. Historically speaking, that's very odd. To understand why, look at these three charts showing the world’s top five navies by proportion of global naval strength in 1870, 1940 and 2010: Britannia Ruled the Waves The U.K. held the largest share of the world's naval strength in 1870...
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 The Handover ...By 1940, as World War II was getting underway, U.S. naval strength was just edging ahead of that of the U.K., with Japan not far behind... Hegemony ...And as of 2010, the U.S. Navy accounted for half the world's naval capability So much for the age of empires. The strategic decision by the U.S. to use its enormous power post-1945 to underpin a global, open trade system rather than an imperial, mercantilist system represented a decisive break from what came before.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 It also made the global oil market as we know it possible. Oil is, of course, intrinsically useful stuff. But that alone didn't ensure its ubiquity. For that, we had to be reasonably sure of a consistent supply. When Winston Churchill decided in 1911 to switch the Royal Navy to running on oil, away from domestic coal, he did it because oil-fired ships were more efficient. Also critical, however, was the assurance that the Royal Navy could keep the sea lanes open to Persia's oilfields. When such assurance is challenged, consumers respond. Take the oil shocks of the 1970s, which spurred efforts to boost supplies from outside of the Middle East and investments in everything from nuclear power to more efficient cars to limit consumption. Now we face a potentially structural disruption. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitics analyst, says Trump's vocal ambivalence about the U.S.-led international order represents less a sudden shift in policy and more an acceleration of a process underway since the end of the Cold War. And it dovetails with increased hostility to what's seen as "unfair" trade. The president may be its most prominent critic, but he certainly wasn't the only candidate trash-talking trade agreements last year. As you might guess from the title of Zeihan's latest book, "The Absent Superpower", he foresees America backing away from the global order it created now that this arrangement has apparently outlived its usefulness. This isn't a decline-and-fall thesis. The U.S. will retain the capability to intervene pretty much wherever it wants on the planet and will of course enter alliances as needed. It just won't necessarily be guaranteeing safe passage for everyone as a matter of course. The most obvious role the U.S. Navy plays in the oil market is ensuring choke-points such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf -- through which almost a fifth of the world's barrels pass -- stay open. But the navy's continual deployment and support capabilities are also important in deterring piracy, particularly in hotspots -- and important oil tanker routes -- such as the Horn of Africa and the Strait of Malacca in Asia. While it seems alarmist to say the U.S. might back away from such responsibilities, remember the arrangement whereby its navy effectively functions as a public good isn't normal, historically speaking. And questions about its cost-effectiveness haven't just emanated from the White House. Earlier this year, an essay published in Foreign Affairs asked the question: Back in 2010, Roger Stern, an energy specialist at the University of Tulsa, took a stab at calculating the cost to the U.S. of policing the Persian Gulf to keep oil supplies flowing. His estimate for 1976 through 2007: $6.8 trillion (jn real terms; and that doesn't include the past decade, obviously). Critically, the populist wave in the U.S. has coincided with the shale boom, as epitomized in Energy Secretary Rick Perry's "energy dominant" slogan. Falling dependence on oil imports provides further ammunition for anyone seeking to scale back America's commitments. Such a shift would increase risks to oil supply at some point. Which actually presents a risk to demand. The reason for this is the shift in global oil consumption from West to East:
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 East Side Story The IEA projects Asian oil demand will be roughly double that of the U.S. and Europe by 2040, even as Japanese consumption declines Note: Projections under the IEA's 'New Policies' scenario. The twist here is that Asia's two powerhouses, China and India, rely more on imports for their oil than the U.S. did even at the height of its dependency -- and it's only going to get worse: State Of Dependence China and India are already more dependent on oil imports than the U.S. ever was -- and projected to become even more so Note: Data after 2015 are IEA projections under the 'New Policies' scenario.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Any planner in Beijing or New Delhi looking at that chart and watching Washington cannot be feeling comfortable. They don't have the luxury of just waiting around to see whether or not the president is serious. They have to take steps to deal simply with the possibility of it. One obvious step is to expand their own navies, as both are doing. This is a multi-decade process, however, and carries other risks. Given the tension generated already by China's moves in the South China Sea, an Asian naval arms race along the lines of Europe's early 20th- century one is not an appealing prospect. Besides the potential for conflict, building modern warships is also expensive. Aircraft carriers cost at least several billion dollars each -- and that's before you put planes and people on them, buy other ships to defend them, and pay running and maintenance costs. This won't stop those navies getting built. But I suspect it will mean Asia's heavyweights also pursue other methods to mitigate their dependency on oil imports -- just as the U.S. and its allies did when they got a taste of disruption in the 1970s. So the security dimension is likely to not merely provide work for Asia's naval yards, but provide more impetus to efforts to limit consumption of oil. An aircraft carrier is powerful, for sure. But it's even more powerful in this context if it's backed by, say, tens of millions of hybrid and electric vehicles back home. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase June 2017 K. Al Awadi
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Solar power is the key to renewable development in the GCC. Installed solar capacity is expected to reach 76 GW by 2020, representing massive opportunity for suppliers in the region. Co-located with The Big 5 Dubai, The Big 5 Solar launches this November 26 - 29th 2017. 20% of The Big 5 visitors in 2016 were looking for solar technologies making The Big 5 Solar an ideal platform to meet dedicated buyers, get inspired at the Global Solar Leader's Summit and open up to new markets.
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