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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 08 January 2017 - Issue No. 984 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: 2017 Emirates Energy Award open for applications The national - Nick Webster Registration for the 2017 Emirates Energy Award, which seeks the best ideas from the public and private sectors to reduce the UAE’s carbon footprint, is open. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, is backing the awards for the best green energy innovations, now in their third edition. "EEA is one of the most important and prominent platforms for shaping the future of energy and water sectors in Middle East and North Africa region," said Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, vice chairman of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy and award president. "It focuses on parameters to facilitate best practices in energy management and efficiency."This is aligned with the UAE Vision 2021, Dubai Plan 2021, and the long-term national initiative launched by Sheikh Mohammed to build a green economy in the UAE." Applications will be received from now until March 1, 2017. They will be evaluated by the committee from April to September. The final ceremony to honour he winners will take place on October 22, to coincide with World Energy Day.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Saudis Said to Duel Rivals by Curbing Heavy Oil Over Light Crude Bloomberg - Serene Cheong and Sharon Cho Saudi Arabia is staying in the battle for market share by continuing to pump the type of oil that’s similar to rival U.S. and African supply, while fulfilling its promise to cut output by focusing curbs on other varieties. The nation plans to idle some fields producing the Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades to meet its output reduction target, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential. That would help the world’s top exporter concentrate more on selling more-profitable crudes such as Arab Light and Extra Light, adding to growing global supplies of similar-quality oil and pitting it against other producers. A majority of the output cuts that are part of a historic deal between OPEC and some other producers aimed at curbing a global glut are set to come from the Middle East. That’s made the region’s crude pricier relative to other supply priced off U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Europe’s Brent markers. While Saudi Arabia has pledged to pump less oil, it’s also trying not to give up sales in Asia, the world’s biggest market, to competing supply from the Americas and Africa. The discount of Dubai oil shrank to the smallest in 15 months over Dated Brent this week, while the Middle East benchmark turned costlier than U.S. marker WTI last month, data compiled from PVM Oil Associates show. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. has informed some Asian refiners of a new round of export cuts in informal discussions ahead of official monthly crude allocations. The company, known as Saudi Aramco, has told customers of possible measures leading up to the cuts, with each scenario signaling reductions are unlikely to be more than 10 percent of contracted volumes for some buyers, said the people.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 The cutbacks in February to Asia will still be smaller than other regions such as the U.S. and Europe because it remains Saudi Arabia’s most valued market, one of the people said. Last month, sales to parts of Southeast Asia and South Asia including India were reduced while buyers in North Asia were largely spared. The Asia Pacific region will use 33.87 million barrels a day of oil in 2017, accounting for more than a third of global consumption, data from the International Energy Agency show. That’s an increase from estimated demand of 33.03 million barrels a day in 2016. In the Americas and Europe, oil use is seen staying flat this year, according to the Paris-based IEA. New Norm Refiners, including China’s independent processors, will try to make crude purchases that take advantage of relatively cheap lighter varieties of oil as the spread between Brent and Dubai remains narrow, industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. said in a note e-mailed Friday. Narrower light-heavy differentials will be the “new norm,” according to the report. The Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps, a measure of the difference in prices between the two benchmarks, was at $1.68 a barrel on Wednesday, according to PVM data. It was at $4.55 in January 2016. While U.S. WTI crude traded 81 cents above the Dubai marker a day before OPEC’s decision to curb output, the Middle East benchmark was 45 cents higher on Jan. 5, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from PVM. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said last month that he didn’t expect a big supply response from American shale producers in 2017. But Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the kingdom is wrong, and forecasts an increase of 800,000 barrels a day in U.S. annual production growth at a price of $55 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Oman: injection to fuel Masirah Oil’s Block 50 operations Oman Observer - Conrad Prabhu Masirah Oil Limited (MOL), the operator and 100 per cent owner of Block 50 offshore Oman’s east coast, has received a fresh capital injection that it says will aid Oman its drilling activities and other operations centring on this hugely promising concession. The cash infusion of $8 million came from Rex Oman, an indirect wholly owned unit of Singapore- based Rex International Holdings, following a subscription of new shares of Masirah Oil (MOL). “The Capital Injection was necessary to allow (Masirah Oil Limited) to pursue its drilling activities and continue its operations in Oman, as well as for general working capital requirements; and was fully satisfied in cash by Rex Oman,” said Rex International Holdings in a statement. “The Board considers the Capital Injection to be in the interest of and beneficial to the Group as (Masirah Oil) is the operator and holds 100 per cent ownership in the close to 17,000 sq km Block 50 Oman concession, which has been identified as one of the Group’s main focus going forward. The Board is of the view that Masirah Oil has high potential for growth, as the discovery made in the concession in early 2014 was the first offshore discovery east of Oman, after 30 years of exploration activity in the area,” it added. The move comes as Masirah Oil prepares to drill another exploration well in Block 50. Dubbed Karamah-1, the well is the second of a multi-well programme and will be drilled from the Aban VII jack-up rig. It follows the successful drilling of the first exploratory well Manarah-1 nearly a year ago, which confirmed the presence of a source rock and a working petroleum system in the concession. During a 48-hour test, light oil flowed to the surface at the rate of 3,000 stock tank barrels per day, the company said. Masirah Oil is also looking for investors to participate in the exploration and development of the Block as part of a farm-out. As a result of the latest capital injection, Rex Oman has increased its direct interest to 85.15 per cent of the enlarged issued and paid-up share capital of Masirah Oil. The balance is held by Lime Petroleum (1.45 per cent), Petroci Holdings (8.39 per cent) and Schroder & Co Banque SA (5 per cent). Majority shareholder Rex International Holdings, which is a Singapore-listed oil and gas company, also holds a 65 per cent indirect interest in Lime Petroleum. Consequently, its effective interest in MOL has increased from approximately 78.68 per cent to 86.09 per cent.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Indonesia: Lion Energy and Renco spud Amanah Timur-1 well in North Sumatra Basin.. Source: Lion Energy Lion Energy has announced the spud of the exciting Amanah Timur-1 (AMT-1) exploration well, located in the South Block A PSC in the prolific North Sumatra Basin. The well is currently preparing to set 9 5/8” casing at approx. 78m prior to drilling ahead in 8 ½” hole. AMT-1 is expected to take no more than 10 days to drill to total depth of approx. 57 0m KB and evaluate the section. A further 10 days is estimated for the likely test program. Lion has a 40.7% interest in the well and will keep the market informed on material events through the drilling and testing program. The well-defined Amanah Timur Prospect being tested by the well is situated within a highly- productive hydrocarbon trend and is covered by recently acquired seismic data. The well targets Keutapang sandstone reservoirs which have delivered over 600mmbbl oil, 2.2tcf gas and 50mmbbl condensate in near proximity. Gross recoverable Prospective Resources are estimated to be 2.0 - 4.8 - 10.7 mmboe (P90 - P50 - P10). The well has an estimated cost of US$1.3 mil (US$0.53 mil net to Lion). This well cost includes provision for up to three production tests. Multiple sandstone reservoirs are being targeted including a shallow objective which had oil production in pre 1930 wells that are in close proximity. • Amanah Timur-1 well spudded on the evening of 3 January 2017, preparing to set 9 5/8” casing at 78.5m KB • Low-risk well with Prospective Resources of up to 9 mmbbl oil (gross recoverable) • Shallow sandstone objective oil productive in pre-1930 wells • Close to oil and gas infrastructure with potential to deliver near-term cash flow Lion’s CEO, Kim Morrison, noted: 'The drilling of Amanah Timur represents a key milestone for Lion. We have led the technical effort on this prospect which represents a highly attractive opportunity with near term cash flow potential.'
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Gabon: VAALCO Energy announces successful workover of Avouma 2-H well offshore Gabon.. Source: VAALCO VAALCO Energy has announced that the Avouma 2-H well on the Avouma Platform offshore Gabon is back on production after utilizing a hydraulic workover unit to replace a failed Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) system. The well is currently producing at a stabilized rate of 2,700 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) gross, or 730 BOPD net to VAALCO. With the addition of the two recent workover wells, total Company net production is currently averaging 4,600 BOPD. As previously announced, the ESP systems failed in both the South Tchibala 2-H and the Avouma 2-H wells on the Avouma Platform this past summer. Prior to temporarily shutting in the Avouma 2-H well after the ESP system failed, the well was producing approx. 2,400 gross BOPD or 650 BOPD net to VAALCO. Following completion of workover operations on the South Tchibala 2-H, previously described in a press release dated December 21st, workover operations on the Avouma 2-H were completed and the well was put back on production. The entire operation was conducted safely and efficiently with no injuries or threats to the environment. All personnel and equipment utilized during the combined operations on the two wells have been demobilized. The detailed inspection of the failed ESP components continues and it is expected that the cause of the failures will be determined during the first quarter of 2017. Monitoring of ESP operation and production optimization procedures continues for both wells. Cary Bounds, VAALCO’s Chief Executive Officer commented: 'Following the successful workover of the South Tchibala 2-H well, we are pleased to have also restored production from the Avouma 2-H well at a higher rate than when it went offline this past summer. We have once again demonstrated our ability to safely and successfully conduct well interventions utilizing a hydraulic workover unit. Our net production has risen to approximately 4,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, our highest rate since early summer 2016. We are pleased to begin 2017 with an attractive combination of strong production volumes and higher oil prices.'
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Russia's Rosneftegaz closes Rosneft deal with Qatar, Glencore Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin called privatisation deal the largest in Russia's history By Reuters Russian state holding company Rosneftegaz on Wednesday closed a deal with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and commodities trader Glencore to sell a 19.5 percent stake in state- owned oil major Rosneft, Rosneft said. The privatisation deal, which Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin called the largest in Russia's history, was announced by Rosneft in a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in December. Its success suggests the lure of taking a share in one of the world's biggest oil companies outweighs the risks associated with Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. "The technical procedures for closing (the deal) required the preparation and signing of more than 50 documents and agreements," Rosneft said in a statement. "All this reflects the unprecedented complexity of the deal." Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo said on Tuesday it would provide a loan for up to 5.2 billion euros ($5.4 billion) to help the QIA and Glencore purchase the stake.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Chinese solar industry targets booming Middle East market Saudi Gazette Chinese solar panel manufacturers are targeting the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia markets, with large-scale investment in renewable energy expected to drive a rapid increase in demand for imported technology. Local demand has underpinned the rise of China’s solar energy industry, but faced by a slowdown in domestic solar energy projects and reduced subsidies, manufacturers are looking to increase their already large export trade as the key to future growth. Emerging markets offer some of the strongest opportunities, particularly in regions with high levels of solar intensity. According to Analysis by Frost and Sullivan for the World Future Energy Summit (WFES) and Solar Expo, to be held in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 16-19, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will increase their installed solar capacity 50-fold between 2015 and 2025. Saudi Arabia alone has announced plans for an additional 9.5 GW of renewable energy by 2030. Outside the GCC, India is targeting 175 GW by 2022, including 100 GW of solar. Planned projects exceed local manufacturing capacity, creating significant scope for partnerships with global suppliers. “When solar energy was seen as experimental in the region, and oil revenues were high, many decision makers automatically looked for Western partners, particularly from Europe,” said Ms. Li Dan, Vice Executive Secretary-General, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association. “Looking ahead, decisions will be based on purely commercial factors. Chinese companies can provide the quality, the capacity, and the commercial viability to put renewables at the center of the energy mix.” Industry analysis predicts that installed electricity generation in the GCC will grow at a compound rate of around 3.74 percent per year between 2015 and 2025, with around $85 billion invested in generation, and $31 billion in transmission and distribution. While natural gas will remain the mainstay of generation, liquid-fired generation using oil will be scaled down. Renewable energy, including solar and wind, will both grow significantly. That opportunity is driving a surge of Chinese interest in the 10th edition of WFES. As the Middle East’s largest exhibition and conference for renewable energy, with a particular focus on the business of renewables, the annual event consistently attracts buyers for renewable energy projects from an area that stretches from Africa, across the Middle East, and into India.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 China will have among the strongest international representations at WFES 2017. Exhibiting companies include Trina and JA Solar – the two largest photovoltaic panel manufacturers in the world. They are joined by other major names such as Jinko Solar, which was part of the consortium that set a record-low price in bids for Abu Dhabi’s planned Sweihan solar power plant in September 2016, Suntech Power, and technology giant Huawei. Most Chinese exhibitors specialize in photovoltaic solar energy, particularly solar panels, as well as associated technology such as battery storage. As falling oil revenues put pressure on budgets, the Chinese suppliers’ established reputation for value, combined with their increasing reputation for quality and innovation, make them highly competitive. “We have seen very strong growth in the number of Chinese companies coming to WFES, with the number of exhibitors now among the highest for any country, and their strength in the MENA and South Asian markets is growing,” said Naji El Haddad, Group Event Director for Reed Exhibitions, which organises WFES in partnership with Masdar. “China has become a powerful force in the region’s accelerating renewable energy industry, with several Chinese exhibitors at WFES ranked among the 10 largest solar manufacturers in the world.” First held in 2008, WFES aims to build the business case for renewable energy. Hosted by Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company, Masdar, as Part of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, the 2017 edition will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 OPEC Oil Output Slides in December Amid Nigeria Disruptions by Angelina Rascouet and Julian Lee OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply before deliberate cuts take effect this month. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s production fell by 50,000 barrels a day while Venezuela declined by 40,000. “Crude production in Nigeria in December was once again severely impacted, mostly due to a field maintenance as well as a strike of port workers,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at London-based consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said by e-mail. The decline in December comes as OPEC, which controls around 40 percent of global supply, is planning to curb output in a bid to boost oil prices. The organization reached a historic deal last month with Russia and other non-members to cut global production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day starting this month. Brent crude, the global benchmark, advanced 52 percent last year, the biggest annual gain since 2009. Prices were down 0.3 percent at $56.31 a barrel as of 6:39 a.m. London.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 -- pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels. Under the terms of last month’s agreement, OPEC’s total output including Indonesia would fall to 32.5 million barrels a day. Compliance with that target will be judged against independent estimates compiled by OPEC, which can vary from the Bloomberg News survey. Nigeria Disruption In Nigeria -- which along with Libya is exempt from making cuts because of conflict -- maintenance on the Erha field and strike action by workers at Exxon Mobil Corp.’s operations in the country disrupted both exports and production, Sen said. A year ago, the country was pumping almost 2 million barrels a day. No cargoes of the Agbami crude grade were shipped in first half of December, while three out of the four Erha cargoes originally scheduled to load were deferred, with two of those moved into January, according to loading programs obtained by Bloomberg. Iran, Kuwait and Angola each reduced output by 20,000 barrels a day while Algeria and Iraq dropped by 10,000, the survey showed. Libya pumped an extra 50,000 barrels a day last month as the Northern African nation reopened two of its biggest oil fields and loaded the first cargo in two years from its largest export terminal. 2017
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 US: EIA’s AEO2017 projects the US to be a net energy exporter in most cases Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017 EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017), released this morning presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets. This AEO is the first to have projections through 2050 in the AEO tables. The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most AEO2017 cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise. Exports are highest, and grow throughout the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, because favorable geology and technological developments result in the production of oil and natural gas at lower costs. The High Oil Price case provides favorable economic conditions for crude oil and natural gas producers while restraining domestic consumption, enabling the most rapid transition to net exporter status. In all cases but the High Oil and Gas Resource Technology case, which assumes substantial improvements in production technology and more favorable resource availability, U.S. energy production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports. The eight cases considered in AEO2017 incorporate different assumptions that reflect market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that affect energy markets. Other key findings include Energy consumption is consistent across all AEO cases, bounded by the High and Low Economic Growth cases. In the Reference case, total energy consumption increases 5% between 2016 and 2040. Because a significant portion of energy consumption is related to economic activity, energy consumption is projected to increase by approximately 11% from 2016 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and remain nearly flat in the Low Economic Growth Case. In all AEO cases, the electric power sector remains the largest consumer of primary energy. Energy production ranges from nearly flat in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case to growth of nearly 50% over 2016–40 in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Case. Unlike energy consumption, which varies less across AEO cases, projections of energy production vary widely. Production growth is dependent on technology, resource, and market conditions. Total energy production increases by more than 20% in the Reference case from 2016 through 2040, led by increases in crude oil and natural gas production. Energy related carbon dioxide emissions decline in most AEO cases, with the highest emissions projected in the No Clean Power Plan case. All AEO2017 cases except the No Clean Power Plan case assume the Clean Power Plan is implemented. To better focus EIA’s resources on expanding its understanding of rapidly evolving energy markets and to better represent new information in EIA’s models and publications, EIA has adopted a two-year release cycle for the AEO. Like AEO2015, AEO2017 is a shorter edition of the AEO. A full edition of the AEO, including Issues in Focus articles, in-depth updates on changes in Legislation and Regulations, and a larger set of side cases with browser tables and spreadsheets for all cases is produced every second year. In years between the full editions, a shorter edition provides a smaller number of cases summarized in annotated presentation slides with the standard set of AEO browser tables and spreadsheets containing the detailed modeling results. EIA will continue to update and refine the market dynamics and technologies in future AEOs, especially for the projections between 2040 and 2050. Projections from the AEO2017 Reference and alternative cases are available on the Annual Energy Outlook website. http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_01052017.pdf
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 NewBase 08 January 2017 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Crude oil at Brent $57.10 and WTI $53.99, up slightly this week as traders parse signs OPEC is cutting output Oil traded higher on Friday as investors bought futures ahead of the weekend, but a strong U.S. dollar limited gains, as did lingering doubts about whether all OPEC producers would cut output in line with an agreement. Trading was choppy, and market players cited end-of-week position-squaring and relatively low volumes during the first trading week of the year. Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oil prices, were up 11 cents at $57 per barrel at 2:35 p.m. ET (1935 GMT), having swung from a high of $57.47 to a low of $56.28. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 23 cents at $53.99 a barrel, recovering from a session low of $53.32 and off a high of $54.32. The contract rose about 0.5 percent on the week, marking the fourth straight weekly gain. "There's a lot of volatility, or at least changes in direction," ABN Amro senior energy economist Hans van Cleef said. "People think the long-term trend is up, but after a gain of a few dollars, they take profit." The dollar gained broadly against major currencies after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report showed a slowing in hiring in December but an increase in wages, setting the economy up for further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year. A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Oil price special coverage
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf members Abu Dhabi and Kuwait showed signs they were cutting production in line with an agreement by OPEC and other producers, yet market watchers have doubts about overall compliance. Saudi Arabia's state oil producer Saudi Aramco has started talks with customers globally on possible cuts of 3 percent to 7 percent in February crude loadings. A Kuwaiti oil official said that country had also reduced production in line with the deal, and there are also reports of supply cuts from Abu Dhabi. But there are still doubts about other producers' compliance. "There will be some countries who will cheat...we expect zero compliance from Baghdad... And we definitely do not expect the Kurds to join in, given that they are autonomous from the federal government," Energy Aspects said in its 2017 oil market outlook, published this week. Iraq Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said this week the autonomous Kurdish region wasexporting more than its allocated share of oil. Iraq is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer. Iran has sold more than 13 million barrels of oil that it had long held on tankers at sea, capitalizing on an OPEC output cut deal from which it is exempted to regain market share and court new buyers, according to industry sources and data. In the past three months, Tehran has sold almost half the oil it had held in floating storage, which had tied up many of its tankers as it struggled to offload stocks in an oversupplied global market. National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is also negotiating with the Philippines over exporting four million barrels of crude per month to the country, Iran's English-language Press TV quoted a statement published on Friday by the NIOC as saying. Iran, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, won special terms from the group's production cuts agreed on Nov. 30 and may raise output slightly. Overall supply from OPEC in December fell only slightly to 34.18 million barrels per day (bpd) from a revised 34.38 million bpd in November, according to a Reuters survey this week based on shipping data and information from industry sources. U.S. energy companies this week added oil rigs for a 10th week in a row, bringing the total count up to 529, the most since December 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 08 Jan. 2017 Dubai solar: A step-by-step guide to the process of installing solar panels TheNational- LeAnne Graves In our case study, the villa in Dubai consumed a total of 65,040 kilowatt-hours last year, which, according to Dewa tariffs, would total Dh22,295.60 in charges. However, 12 solar panels were added to the property; that saved the customer 10 per cent in electricity usage and 11.57 per cent on the electricity bill. The projection from this example assumed that Dewa would increase its rate by 15 per cent rate, and even still showed that the villa would make a return on its investment in its ninth year. All savings from the solar panels after that would be pure profit. For a breakdown of the case study data, take a look at the graphic at the bottom of this story. There are hurdles to overcome to installing solar panels in your home, from getting approval from your developer to using a Dewa-approved contractor, but there’s no substitute for good research.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 Choose product type and site location First, homeowners need to contact the developer of their community to find out whether there are any restrictions on changing physical properties of the home. For example, an owner with property in The Springs would need to contact Emaar Properties. You may think that you can install panels on the ground, out of sight. It is very important to avoid total or partial shading of panels during the day as this will render the system ineffective. Look to have mounted solar panels in a seamless configuration to enable easy access for cleaning. Flat villa rooftops and parking garages are some of the most suitable areas. Make sure the location is ventilated as the breeze will help increase panel efficiency, which means a greater return on investment. No two systems are alike and will not have the same power output. Solar installers should survey each property and advise you on the best layout and installation method. Budget Solar panels typically only make up 40 per cent of the total cost of a system while other parts such as inverters, mounting and wiring make up another 40 per cent. This leaves the design, installation and various authority approvals. Go to the Shams Dubai website and look through the list of registered consultants – 52 by mid-- December. Get prices from numerous approved contractors and look up their previous experience. As it is relatively easy to become a certified expert, homeowners should look for reputable companies with proven experience in Dubai. It is important to note that contractors who are not Dewa- approved will not be allowed to connect your system to the grid. You can also gauge prices by going to Dubai’s newly launched Green Deal site which offers a standardised approach. Engineering and approval Homeowners need to have the property’s construction drawings and site affection plan, which was provided by the developer at the time of purchase. This is used by the contractors/consultants to create new drawings to show the layout of the panels and wiring for approval by the various authorities. Some contractors will go as far as providing renderings to show how your system will look. The contractor needs to obtain no-objection certificates from Dewa (electrical side of system) and Dubai Municipality (mechanical/construction side of system) before any work can start. Usually the homeowner is responsible for applying for community/developer approvals and access permits using the same drawings/paperwork. There are some companies that offer all-inclusive services but you should make sure to know exactly what is included at the beginning. Purchase, install and commission If your contractor doesn’t sell the equipment, you may use panels from a variety of other sources as long as the specifications match the requirements given by Dewa. Again, research the type of panels to make sure that would be a good fit for what your needs.
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Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Do not make a decision based solely on price but look at efficiency and any other reviews of the product. Shams Dubai also includes a list of approved products and vendors. The best route would definitely be to find a contractor that offers a turnkey installation, or a solution that offers one rate for everything from installation, consulting to financing. The total time from idea to implementation can be from as little as three months (Dubai Carbon) or up to five months (Oryx Solar). The actual installation of the system should take no longer than three days. Then there should be three to four visits and inspections from Dewa and Dubai Municipality. The rest is time it takes to seek the various stages of approval required. * Input provided by Dubai Carbon and Oryx Solar For example, Union Properties requires residents to gain no objection certificates and gate passes for contractors before carrying out any modification or alteration works, and tenants need to submit various papers including a connection agreement from Dewa, technical drawings and method statements. A spokesman for Nakheel said that it also requires owners to submit modification proposals before doing any work, however, it said that "the installation of solar panels is both permitted and encouraged in Nakheel communities". One of Dubai’s biggest contracting companies, Al Jaber Engineering & Contracting (Alec), set up a division last year targeting the solar panels market but its focus is on commercial and industrial buildings. Gipin Mani, the account manger for Alec Energy, said that Dewa’s introduction of net metering had opened the door for all property owners to be able to capitalise on solar energy. Net metering allows property owners to effectively "sell" excess power generated during the day to Dewa, which gives credits that can be redeemed on future energy bills. This means property owners no longer need expensive storage batteries to benefit from solar generation. Mr Mani said the length of the payback period for those installing solar panels varies because Dewa charges homeowners and commercial users different rates based on energy usage levels. However, even conservative energy users should see a payback for solar installations within eight years, he said. "It’s a very good initiative. A lot of people are interested in investing," he argued. Mr Nami said that it generally takes about 10 square metres of roof space to generate 1kW of power, so a typical three-bed villa with 100 to 200 sq m of roof space would be capable of generating between 10 and 20kW of power. Alec Energy typically targets projects capable of generating at least 500kW. It installs the systems for free under lease deals lasting for 20 years. It then provides electricity at a discount to Dewa’s regular rate but requires a minimum level of power use. In October, the company agreed a deal with Al Nabooda Automobiles to install 25,000 solar panels on the roofs and car parks of its body and paint shop. The panels will generate about 6.8MW, or about 70 per cent of the shop’s energy requirements.
19.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
20.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 Zohal Renewable Energy, a company set up in May 2015 as a joint venture between Gargash Group and Green Energy Systems, is one company that sees opportunities in the residential market. It has spent more than a year ensuring that all five of its engineers gained accreditation from Dewa and has already installed panels at a mosque within Dubai Silicon Oasis as well as at a labour camp for fisheries workers in Jebel Ali. Muhammad Ansari, Zohal’s sales and marketing engineer, said that its first two residential projects are in the design phase. It is calculating a more aggressive payback period than Alec – six years – on the basis that "current electricity prices will increase" over time. He said that installations cost about US$1.50 (Dh5.50) per watt produced but is more conservative in his target of how much a typical villa roof can produce, given that many also have to accommodate chiller units and other plant equipment. "It is tough to accommodate more than 4 to 5 kW on a single villa," he said, unless the property has been specifically designed to accommodate panels. Mr Ansari said the high demand for power in the region and the weather conditions makes solar an ideal power source but added that "the process to apply for a solar connection for domestic users
21.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 Buying and installing solar panels may provide an attractive long-term return on investment but it is unlikely to significantly increase the value of your home. David Godchaux, the chief executive of Core Savills, said the "lack of awareness" surrounding sustainability issues in the UAE meant that those who spend money on the technology generally don’t benefit from a boost in their property’s value. "It’s a vicious spiral," he said. "Because you don’t have awareness, people don’t understand that they can resell at a premium. And because they don’t understand that they can resell at a premium, they actually don’t, which makes new buyers think it’s not worth it." He said that homeowners in the UAE who make improvements to other elements of their home, such as upgrading kitchens or bathrooms, do generally benefit from an uplift in a property’s value. "You typically make a profit in this country because a lot of people don’t want the hassle of improving a home that is generally not delivered to a very high standard of finishes by the developer to the homeowner. "So if you improve it, you are typically able to triple the money you invested to improve it. That’s a general rule of thumb. If you spend Dh10,000, you are able to get about Dh20,000 to 40,000 back." Those who invest in solar panels may benefit handsomely from reduced electricity costs in the long term, as Gipin Mani of Alec Energy says that a solar panel system typically returns about three times its investment value over a 25- to 30-year lifespan. However, they are unlikely to make anything more on it than the cost of insulation.
22.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 22 Dima Isshak, the head of research and consultancy at Chestertons Mena, said that part of the problem is that many renters or homeowners do not properly grasp what proportion of their overall housing costs goes on electricity bills. Chestertons estimates that solar panel installations could reduce electricity bills by between 50 per cent and 60 per cent per month and that buyers should eventually recognise the value of them in the long run. Ms Isshak acknowledged that one of the potential barriers for solar panel take-up in the UAE market is the higher-than-average number of investors as homeowners. Installing solar panels is "just asking them to invest more money into their property" without the incentive of saving on fuel bills, which are typically paid by the tenant. Similarly, tenants lack the security of tenure to make the type of investment in a property that they do not own when the payback periods are so long. "But if you’re an end-user and you own the villa, you will get that payback over the course." Holley Chant, a senior executive at KEO International Consultants, said that perceptions regarding sustainability are changing and that developers run the risk of being stuck with obsolete assets in the future if they don’t design sustainably today. She pointed to the adoption of Green Real Estate Sustainability Benchmarks by the property developers in the US as evidence of the seriousness with which the industry now takes this issue. "I think it is really interesting and a prophecy of things to come, that people are doing sustainability as a risk management so they don’t lose value in their real estate," she said. She said that sustainable homes could be a differentiator in the future – particularly in Dubai, where energy costs are higher than Abu Dhabi and where some experts are predicting the risk of an oversupply of new homes in the future. "When there is an abundant supply, people will start to look at what is going to cost less in terms of operation. So if you’re a tenant, and someone says ‘your rent is the same as down the street but your energy bill is going to be half’, which one are you going to rent?"
23.
Copyright © 2015
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 23 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase January 2017 K. Al Awadi
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