Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate ChangeBoth the joke and theBoth the joke and thereality.reality.By : Khawar NehalBy : Khawar Nehal14 June 201314 June 2013http://atrc.net.pkhttp://atrc.net.pk
Global ClimateChange• Identifiable change in the climate ofEarth as a whole that lasts for anextended period of time (decades orlonger)– When due to natural processes, it is usuallyreferred to as global climate variability– Usually refers to changes forced by humanactivities that change the atmosphere
What causes Earth’sWhat causes Earth’sclimate to change?climate to change? Changes in the atmosphereChanges in the atmosphere Natural processesNatural processes VolcanoesVolcanoes Tectonic plate movementTectonic plate movement Changes in the sunChanges in the sun Human activities – any activity that releasesHuman activities – any activity that releases“greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere“greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
What areWhat aregreenhousegreenhousegases?gases?Any gases that cause the “greenhouseAny gases that cause the “greenhouseeffect!”effect!”Imagine… a car on a cool but sunny day…
Research• Almost 1000 studiesdealing with differentaspects of climate changehave been conducted andpublished• So… how do we makesense of all this?
Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) Why was it created? Created in 1988 bythe United NationsEnvironmentalProgram Established toprovide policy-makers with anobjective source ofinformation aboutclimate change
Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) Who is it? Governments Members of the UN Participate by namingexperts and reviewing thereports before they’republished Scientists Close to 1000 scientists Climatologists, ecologists,atmospheric physicists, andothersDr. Susan Solomon, a NOAA atmospheric chemist,an IPCC member and one author of IPCC summary
Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) What do they do? Review current scientific and technicalliterature relevant to global climate change Provide reports on their findings at regularintervals Reports are designed to be politicallyneutral and of high scientific and technicalstandards
How do they create theirreports?It’s a multi-step process…
IPCC – Words Used in Reports When they discuss data: Very high confidence to very lowconfidence that the data is accurate When they discuss the likelihood ofsomething occurring: Virtually certain to exceptionally unlikely
Warming of Climate• Warming of the climate is definitelyoccurring and can be observed by the:– Increases in global sea and air temperatures– Widespread melting of snow and ice– Rising global sea level
Now for a shot of realityHere is the graph of the global temperatureover the whole period.Notice the IPCC selects only the increasingsets to show that the difference is positive.It also selects a negative difference to showthat circa 1880 it is cooling and heating lessthan now.
Now for a killer shot of realityPlease see the longer term temperature ofthe planet and understand that extinction andchange are normal conditions for this planet.If humans are here or not, it would not makemuch difference to the planet as a whole.The difference with or without humans is a lotmore than anything we are doing so far.
Other Observed Changes and Effects• 89% of current changes in ecosystems areconsistent with changes expected due to globalclimate change• Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxidelevels in atmosphere have increased greatlydue to human activities since 1750 and now farexceed previous levels• Carbon dioxide has increased byapproximately 80% since 1970
Most of the observed increase inglobal average temperature sincethe mid-20thcentury is very likelydue to the observed increase inhuman-caused greenhouse gasconcentrations and humaninfluences have very likelycontributed to sea level rise, too.
Notice the use of the term “Verylikely” when they know that it isnot the case.
• Warming and sea level rise will continue andwill probably occur more quickly than whatwe’ve already seen• Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, thiswill probably continue to occur for centuries• Some effects may be permanent
• Notice they state the truth.• Sea levels will continue to rise (and fall).Probably (they do not know) more quickly.Which means maybe.• Centuries of warming is not related togreenhouse gases but we can assume our lieand run it for many centuries or try to foolyou to do things our way.
• Effects on Ecosystems– Coral systems cannot handle higher temperatureswell– Wildfires will increase– Up to 30% of species will be at increased risk forextinction due to the rapid changes in theirecosystems
• Yes, we saw that things go extinct. Like the trilobites andthe dinosaurs which humans were not around to save. Andthere is nothing we can do except keep a copy of the DNAto create a life form in the future.• How will the dodo bird survive a saber-tooth tiger in thefuture if it cannot even survive a cat. So even if we canreplicate them in the future. We can only keep them in azoo or as pets.
• Effects in North America– Warming in western mountains: several effects– Increased rain: will actually help some crops– Heat waves will increase in number, length, andintensity– Coastal communities will be affected byincreased flooding and storms
There are several types of options…• Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases• Attempt to develop alternatives energies• Allow emission to continue, but prepare forglobal climate changes• Allow emissions to continue as normal andleave preparations up to individualcountries• Combine any of these ideas• Come up with your own unique plan!
There are several types of options…• And it wont make a difference because thetheory is a lie from the beginning.• Find out who is pushing it and why. Thenyou can understand what economics arebehind the idea.
References• IPCC Summary Report for Policy Makers. November 2007• "About IPCC." IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. 20 Apr. 2009<http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm>.• "Climate Change | U.S. EPA." U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency. 20 Apr. 2009<http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html>.• Rischard, J. F. High noon twenty global problems, twentyyears to solve them. New York: Basic Books, 2002.• "SVS Animations." NASA Goddard Scientific VisualizationStudio. 20 Apr. 2009<http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html>.