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Responses of Coupled Human-Natural Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems to ClimateChange
- 1. Responses of Coupled Human-Natural Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) to Climate Change COP25 Madrid 2-13 December, 2019 Javier Arístegui & William Cheung
- 2. Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
- 3. What is an EBUS?
- 4. Why EBUS are important? • Among the world’s most productive ocean ecosystems, contributing around 17% of global catch • Catches are consumed locally, as well as being processed and exported as seafood, fish meals and oils to support aquaculture and livestock production. • They also support lucrative eco-tourism, such as whale-watching • The condensation of humid air in coastal areas, benefits coastal vegetation and agriculture and suppressing forest fires • Some EBUS are close to important thresholds in terms of oxygen loss and ocean acidification
- 5. What are the observed changes? Wind and upwelling intensification Winds have intensified in most EBUS (except the CanC) during the last 60 years, due to global warming IPCC-AR5
- 6. What are the observed changes and impacts? Bindoff et al. (2019) SROCC Chapter 5
- 7. What are the projected changes? Wind and upwelling intensification Climate models (ESMs) project reduction of wind and upwelling intensity in EBUs at low latitude and enhancement at high latitudes for RCP8.5, with an overall reduction in either upwelling intensity or extension
- 8. What are the projected changes? Deoxygenation and acidification Peru Franco et al 2018 Model projections for 2100 suggest strong effects of deoxygenation and reduced pH in the Humboldt Current and the California Current under RCP 8.5, affecting seafloor habitats and fisheries
- 9. What are the projected changes? Trends in primary production EMS: variable trends with an average decrease in low latitude regions Local winds and mesoscale oceanographic features (not resolved in ESMs) have a greater impact on regional productivity than large-scale wind patterns Frölicher et al. 2016
- 10. What are the projected changes? Projected impacts in fish biomass and fisheries Fisheries are not only highly sensitive to upwelling conditions but also by fishing effects on the exploited populations. Provide carbon and energy for foodweb Biomass of organisms in the upper part of the foodweb Proxy of maximum sustainable yield Changingoceanconditions Bindoff et al. (2019) SROCC Chapter 5
- 11. Change in ecosystem services Implications for food security Nutritional vulnerability to climate change Small Island developing states W. Africa Asia-Pacific Coastal fisheries in the Canary Current are an important source of micronutrients to nearby West African countries that have particularly high susceptibility to climate change impacts and low adaptive capacity Golden et al., 2016
- 12. Risk reduction Ocean-based responses • Supported by protection, restoration, precautionary ecosystem-based management of renewable resource use, reduction of pollution and other stressors; • Moderate to high benefits to local climate-risk reduction • High/very high co-benefits and low trade-offs. Bindoff et al. (2019) SROCC Chapter 5
- 13. Changes in the coupled human-natural EBUS • Given the high sensitivity of the coupled human-natural EBUS to oceanographic changes, the future sustainable delivery of key ecosystem services (fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism and climate regulation) is at risk under climate change • For vulnerable human communities with low adaptive capacity, unmitigated climate change effects on EBUS (complicated by other non- climatic stresses) have a high risk of altering their development pathways Knowledge for action
- 14. EBUS are sentinels of Climate Change– They sustain us. They are under pressure. Their changes affect all our lives. The time for action is now. Knowledge for action
- 15. Thank you
Editor's Notes
- The front and the back cover of the report pays tribute to the various regions addressed in this assessment, from the polar regions to tropical shores. The ocean and cryosphere – the frozen parts of our planet – might feel remote to some people. But they impact all of us, for weather and climate, food and water, or for energy, trade, transport, for health and wellbeing, for culture and identity. The ocean and the cryosphere are critical for all life on earth. And this report has shown, that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, global warming will drastically alter the ocean and cryosphere. However, if we reduce emissions sharply, consequences for people and their livelihoods will still be challenging. But they will be potentially more manageable for those who are most vulnerable. The report reveals the benefits of ambitious and effective adaptation for sustainable development. Conversely there may be escalating costs and risks associated with delayed action.
- A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. Sydeman et al. [2014] performed a meta-analysis of published reports and found that studies conducted in poleward portions of the upwelling systems were more likely to report long-term increases in τupw than analyses of winds in equatorward portions of the systems. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken.
- A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. Sydeman et al. [2014] performed a meta-analysis of published reports and found that studies conducted in poleward portions of the upwelling systems were more likely to report long-term increases in τupw than analyses of winds in equatorward portions of the systems. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken.
- A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. Sydeman et al. [2014] performed a meta-analysis of published reports and found that studies conducted in poleward portions of the upwelling systems were more likely to report long-term increases in τupw than analyses of winds in equatorward portions of the systems. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken.
- Figure 5. Temporal evolution of ocean acidification in the nearshore 15 km off the coast of (a) Peru and (b) Chile in response to different carbon emission scenarios. Shown in blue is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (inverted, right axis), in red Xarag, and in green Xcalc. The solid lines indicate the evolution for the historical period and the RCP8.5 sce- nario for the future. The dashed lines indicate the results for the RCP2.6 scenario. The thin vertical bars on the right hand side of each figure indicate the seasonal range of the monthly averaged values across the entire 15 km offshore band. The thick vertical lines indicate the potential variations in Xarag and Xcalc induced by interannual variations associated with the El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation, estimated from the calculated relationship between these parameters and the observed temperature anomalies (see also section 6.1).
- A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. Sydeman et al. [2014] performed a meta-analysis of published reports and found that studies conducted in poleward portions of the upwelling systems were more likely to report long-term increases in τupw than analyses of winds in equatorward portions of the systems. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken.
- The climate change impacts on ecosystem services from EBUS vary according to the biophysical and the socio-economic characteristics of the upwelling systems The fisheries are not only highly sensitive to upwelling conditions but also by fishing effects on the exploited populations. Because small pelagic fisheries from upwelling regions are the main source of the global fishmeal market, decreases in their catches increase the international fishmeal price, increasing the price of other food commodities (like aquaculture-derived fish) that rely on fishmeal for their production Any decrease in fish catches in EBUS will affect regional food security. For example, coastal fisheries in the Canary Current are an important source of micronutrients to nearby West African countries (Golden et al., 2016) that have particularly high susceptibility to climate change impacts and low adaptive capacity, because of their strong dependence on the fisheries resources, a rapidly growing population and regional conflicts. Decreased small pelagic fish stocks also increase the mortality and reduce reproduction of larger vertebrates such as hake (Guevara-Carrasco and Lleonart, 2008), whales and seabirds (Essington et al., 2015). Impacts on these organisms affect other non-fishing sectors that are dependent on EBUS, such as whale-watching in the California Current, and generally degrade their intrinsic value.
- To date, the ocean has absorbed 90% of the heat in the climate system. It will take up 2 to 4 times more heat than between 1970 and the present by 2100 if global warming is limited to 2°C and up to 5 to 7 times more at higher emissions (compared to 1970). Warming in the ocean reduces mixing between water layers and therefore limits the supply of oxygen and nutrients for marine life. Marine heatwaves have doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity. They are projected to further increase in frequency, duration, extent and intensity. Their frequency will be 20 times higher at 2°C warming, compared to pre-industrial levels. They would occur 50 times more often if emissions continue to increase strongly. They are especially harming warm-water corals, kelp forests and the distribution of marine life. By absorbing human-induced carbon emissions, the ocean is becoming more acidic. This is already making it harder for some marine species to build their shells and skeletons. It has taken up between 20 to 30% of these carbon dioxide emissions, and continued uptake will exacerbate ocean acidification by 2100.