Stephen minton tech transformation in the age of uncertainty - seserv se workshop june 2012

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Stephen minton tech transformation in the age of uncertainty - seserv se workshop june 2012

  1. 1. IDC ICT Market Data & Analysis “Tech Transformation in the Age of Uncertainty”Stephen MintonVice President, Worldwide ICT Markets sminton@idc.com +44 7435 753922 @stephenmintonJune 20, 2012Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. 1
  2. 2. Competing for 2020 – On a New PlatformBy 2020, when the ICT The Third Platform for IT Industry Growth & Innovationindustry reaches $5 trillion —almost $2 trillion larger than itis today — at least 80% of theindustrys growth will driven by:•  Third platform technologies•  An explosion of new solutions built on the new platform•  Rapidly expanding consumption of all of the above in mature economies and emerging marketsIn 2012, battles to lead the ICTmarketplace of 2020 will startto be won and lost. © 2011 IDC 6-12 2
  3. 3. The State of Play – IT Industry Growth Worldwide IT Spending Growth 1996-2014 (%)15%10% 5% 0%-5%-10% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency © 2011 IDC 6-12
  4. 4. The State of Play – European IT MarketEuropean  Union   2011   IT Investment is stalling due to weak business and consumer confidence, inIT  %  of  GDP   2.62%   addition to direct impact of government austerity and cutbacksIT  Taxes  ($m)    506,123     VC funding is surprisingly strong, focused on European firms targetingIT  Companies   393,301   global market opportunitiesIT  Workers   7,879,412   Long-haul recovery for European IT market is likely, with growth laggingIT  Spending  ($m)   470,930   pre-recession levels for next five years 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% IT Spending 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency© 2011 IDC 6-12 4
  5. 5. The State of Play – Internet Users3000000000 Western Europe Internet penetration leveling off at 350 million, but global penetration still surging due to emerging markets growth (especially BRIC), approaching 40% of world population by 2015250000000020000000001500000000 Rest of World Europe1000000000 500000000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : IDC Information Society Index© 2011 IDC 6-12 5
  6. 6. The State of Play – Internet Penetration Mobile Internet penetration still surging in mature economies and emerging markets; broadband penetration is slower in some emerging markets; more than a third of population in Europe now using mobile web 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% World 40% Europe 30% 20% 10% 0% Internet Broadband Mobile Internet Source : IDC Information Society Index© 2011 IDC 6-12 6
  7. 7. The State of Play – European Internet Younger than 5 5 to 14 15 to 24 Wired 25 to 39 Mobile 40 to 54 55 or older Personal Small Business PC Medium/Large Business Non-PC Government Education Source : IDC Information Society Index© 2011 IDC 6-12 7
  8. 8. Western Europe Internet Devices600000000500000000400000000300000000 PC Non-PC200000000100000000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : IDC Information Society Index© 2011 IDC 6-12 8
  9. 9. Worldwide Internet Device Spending ($m)800000700000 600000 500000 400000 Feature Phone 300000 Smartphone Tablet 200000 PC 100000 0 Source: IDC Worldwide Black Book© 2011 IDC 6-12 9
  10. 10. Information Society IndexBenchmarks countries according to socio-economic impact oftechnology, Internet and telecoms usageTechnology categories: PC households, mobile phonesubscribers, Internet users, mobile Web users, broadbandpenetration, e-commerce spending, packaged softwarespendingSocial variables: Civil liberties, education (secondary andtertiary), corruptionWeightings: GDP, population, householdsIndex created in 1995© 2011 IDC 6-12 10
  11. 11. Information Society Index 2011 Source : IDC Information Society Index© 2011 IDC 6-12 11
  12. 12. 2012: Transformation Amidst ChaosA Year of Instability in ICT Markets,European economy in crisis, but keyICT transformations Continue: §  ICT market expansion through disruptive Cloud model, driving re- architecture of vendor models, platforms, identities, policy §  Ascendance of mobile devices – and apps – the post-PC era begins §  Shift of customer “design point” toward SMB/consumer, emerging markets §  Infrastructure challenges – continuing growth of digital information on servers and networks, security challenges © 2011 IDC 6-12 12
  13. 13. We’ve been down this road before…© 2011 IDC 6-12 1313
  14. 14. From IT Doesn’t Matter…© 2011 IDC 6-12 14
  15. 15. ….to the Next Web© 2011 IDC 6-12 15
  16. 16. Network Evolution….© 2011 IDC 6-12 16
  17. 17. …..to Network Revolution© 2011 IDC 6-12 17
  18. 18. Internet of Things Part 18000 Units Installed Worldwide (millions)700060005000 Computers Handhelds4000 Networking Industrial/automotive Embedded3000 Household20001000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: IDC Everything Network © 2011 IDC 6-12 18
  19. 19. Internet of Things Part 2 1400000 Units Installed Worldwide (millions) 1200000 1000000 800000 Sensors and Tags Everything Else 600000 400000 200000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: IDC Everything Network© 2011 IDC 6-12 19
  20. 20. The Information Explosion Continues 35000 30000 2500040,000 20000 Imaging 15000 Data 10000 Voice30,000 5000 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 201420,00010,000 0 11 05 06 07 08 09 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: “The Expanding Digital Universe,” IDC; sponsored by EMC© 2011 IDC 6-12 20
  21. 21. The Transaction Explosion Continues Internet Commerce-Related Transactions Billions WW 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model© 2011 IDC 6-12 21
  22. 22. The E-Commerce Explosion Continues Total E-Commerce Spending ($billion) 18000 Billions 16000 14000 12000 10000 Rest of World 8000 Europe 6000 4000 2000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Western Europe E-Commerce ($billion) Worldwide E-Commerce ($billion) 3500 18000Billions Billions 3000 16000 2500 14000 12000 2000 Wireline 10000 Wireline 1500 8000 Mobile Mobile 1000 6000 500 4000 2000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : IDC Information Society Index 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 © 2011 IDC 6-12 22
  23. 23. New Information on the Network© 2011 IDC 6-12 2323
  24. 24. Appetite for Transformation Mobile Apps Infrastructure Transformation New Data Analysis Cloud Computing© 2011 IDC 6-12
  25. 25. Mobility Explosion AcceleratesMobile devices & users surge, poised tochallenge PC, radically expand marketMobile data services spending will passfixed data spending for the first timeMedia tablets will soar, with iPad holdinga big lead and Microsoft joining the partyMobile apps war — led by Apple andGoogle — continues as stakes get hugeThe "app store" phenomenon will spreadto PC and next-gen enterprise solutionsEmerging markets will begin todramatically transform the market © 2011 IDC 6-12 25
  26. 26. Cloud Adoption “Mainstreams”Public cloud services adoption will growat over four times the rate of the ITindustryCloud services spending will exceed $36billion this year2012 is a big year for private cloudservices adoption and deploymentTwo cloud “power positions” §  The platform-as-a-service (PaaS) battle will determine "the next Microsoft" §  Battle for hybrid cloud managementDeath of “cloud computing” by 2012 © 2011 IDC 6-12 26
  27. 27. Western Europe Public Cloud ServicesSpending ($m)8000700060005000 SaaS4000 PaaS3000 IaaS20001000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Benelux France Germany Italy Nordics Spain U.K. Other Source : IDC European Public Cloud Services Forecast© 2011 IDC 6-12 27
  28. 28. Big Data: Management & AnalyticsThe "digital universe" will grow to 2.7ZB in2012, up 48% from 2011, and rocketingtoward nearly 8ZB by 2015Continuing buying spree to strengthenvendors’ information managementcapabilities"Compliant clouds" will become standardfareIn a world of increasingly "big data," real-time, pervasive analytics offerings; newmethodologies for data collection © 2011 IDC 6-12 28
  29. 29. Social Business Gets SeriousEnterprise software vendors will get moreaggressive, drive a lot of M&AFacebook aims at becoming the B2Cplatform of choiceBusinesses and government focused onopportunity and risk, new policies tocontrol explosion of social media andblurring of lines between business/personal usagePrivacy concerns on the rise – mobilelocation-based advertisingSocio-economic impact could be profound© 2011 IDC 6-12 29
  30. 30. European Social Network Survey© 2011 IDC 6-12 30
  31. 31. Essential GuidanceTechnology and Internet transformationcontinues, despite economic uncertainty: •  Mobile devices have won decisively as we enter the post-PC era •  Cloud platform battles will take hold •  Social technologies will be a “must have”, despite concerns over security and privacy •  Digital Universe continues to explode •  Big Data will be essential capability •  Emerging markets are already the new center of growth, driving new design points •  Internet of Things will be dominated by non-traditional IT and machine-to-machine communications © 2011 IDC 6-12 31
  32. 32. Contact Information Please email me at sminton@idc.com© 2011 IDC 6-1232 32

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