1. IDC ICT Market Data & Analysis
“Tech Transformation
in the Age of Uncertainty”
Stephen Minton
Vice President, Worldwide ICT Markets
sminton@idc.com
+44 7435 753922
@stephenminton
June 20, 2012
Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. 1

2. Competing for 2020 – On a New Platform
By 2020, when the ICT The Third Platform for
IT Industry Growth & Innovation
industry reaches $5 trillion —
almost $2 trillion larger than it
is today — at least 80% of the
industry's growth will driven by:
• Third platform technologies
• An explosion of new solutions built
on the new platform
• Rapidly expanding consumption of
all of the above in mature
economies and emerging markets
In 2012, battles to lead the ICT
marketplace of 2020 will start
to be won and lost.
© 2011 IDC 6-12 2

3. The State of Play – IT Industry Growth
Worldwide IT Spending Growth 1996-2014 (%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency
© 2011 IDC 6-12

4. The State of Play – European IT Market
European
Union
2011
IT Investment is stalling due to weak business and consumer confidence, in
IT
%
of
GDP
2.62%
addition to direct impact of government austerity and cutbacks
IT
Taxes
($m)
506,123
VC funding is surprisingly strong, focused on European firms targeting
IT
Companies
393,301
global market opportunities
IT
Workers
7,879,412
Long-haul recovery for European IT market is likely, with growth lagging
IT
Spending
($m)
470,930
pre-recession levels for next five years
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00% IT Spending
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
-8.00%
Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency
© 2011 IDC 6-12 4

5. The State of Play – Internet Users
3'000'000'000
Western Europe Internet penetration leveling off at 350 million, but global penetration still surging due
to emerging markets growth (especially BRIC), approaching 40% of world population by 2015
2'500'000'000
2'000'000'000
1'500'000'000 Rest of World
Europe
1'000'000'000
500'000'000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : IDC Information Society Index
© 2011 IDC 6-12 5

6. The State of Play – Internet Penetration
Mobile Internet penetration still surging in mature economies and emerging markets; broadband penetration
is slower in some emerging markets; more than a third of population in Europe now using mobile web
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
World
40% Europe
30%
20%
10%
0%
Internet Broadband Mobile Internet
Source : IDC Information Society Index
© 2011 IDC 6-12 6

7. The State of Play – European Internet
Younger than 5
5 to 14
15 to 24 Wired
25 to 39 Mobile
40 to 54
55 or older
Personal
Small Business
PC
Medium/Large
Business Non-PC
Government
Education
Source : IDC Information Society Index
© 2011 IDC 6-12 7

8. Western Europe Internet Devices
600'000'000
500'000'000
400'000'000
300'000'000 PC
Non-PC
200'000'000
100'000'000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : IDC Information Society Index
© 2011 IDC 6-12 8

9. Worldwide Internet Device Spending ($m)
800'000
700'000
600'000
500'000
400'000 Feature Phone
300'000 Smartphone
Tablet
200'000
PC
100'000
0
Source: IDC Worldwide Black Book
© 2011 IDC 6-12 9

10. Information Society Index
Benchmarks countries according to socio-economic impact of
technology, Internet and telecoms usage
Technology categories: PC households, mobile phone
subscribers, Internet users, mobile Web users, broadband
penetration, e-commerce spending, packaged software
spending
Social variables: Civil liberties, education (secondary and
tertiary), corruption
Weightings: GDP, population, households
Index created in 1995
© 2011 IDC 6-12 10

11. Information Society Index 2011
Source : IDC Information Society Index
© 2011 IDC 6-12 11

12. 2012: Transformation Amidst Chaos
A Year of Instability in ICT Markets,
European economy in crisis, but key
ICT transformations Continue:
§ ICT market expansion through
disruptive Cloud model, driving re-
architecture of vendor models,
platforms, identities, policy
§ Ascendance of mobile devices – and
apps – the post-PC era begins
§ Shift of customer “design point” toward
SMB/consumer, emerging markets
§ Infrastructure challenges – continuing
growth of digital information on servers
and networks, security challenges
© 2011 IDC 6-12 12

13. We’ve been down this road before…
© 2011 IDC 6-12 1313

14. From IT Doesn’t Matter…
© 2011 IDC 6-12 14

15. ….to the Next Web
© 2011 IDC 6-12 15

16. Network Evolution….
© 2011 IDC 6-12 16

17. …..to Network Revolution
© 2011 IDC 6-12 17

18. Internet of Things Part 1
8'000
Units Installed Worldwide (millions)
7'000
6'000
5'000 Computers
Handhelds
4'000 Networking
Industrial/automotive
Embedded
3'000
Household
2'000
1'000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: IDC Everything Network
© 2011 IDC 6-12 18

19. Internet of Things Part 2
1'400'000
Units Installed Worldwide (millions)
1'200'000
1'000'000
800'000
Sensors and Tags
Everything Else
600'000
400'000
200'000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: IDC Everything Network
© 2011 IDC 6-12 19

20. The Information Explosion Continues
35'000
30'000
25'000
40,000 20'000 Imaging
15'000 Data
10'000 Voice
30,000 5'000
-
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2014
20,000
10,000
0
11
05
06
07
08
09
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: “The Expanding Digital Universe,” IDC; sponsored by EMC
© 2011 IDC 6-12 20

21. The Transaction Explosion Continues
Internet Commerce-Related Transactions
Billions WW
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model
© 2011 IDC 6-12 21

22. The E-Commerce Explosion Continues
Total E-Commerce Spending ($billion)
18'000
Billions
16'000
14'000
12'000
10'000
Rest of World
8'000
Europe
6'000
4'000
2'000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Western Europe E-Commerce ($billion) Worldwide E-Commerce ($billion)
3'500 18'000
Billions
Billions
3'000 16'000
2'500 14'000
12'000
2'000
Wireline 10'000 Wireline
1'500 8'000
Mobile Mobile
1'000 6'000
500 4'000
2'000
0
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : IDC Information Society Index 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
© 2011 IDC 6-12 22

23. New Information on the Network
© 2011 IDC 6-12 2323

24. Appetite for Transformation
Mobile Apps
Infrastructure Transformation
New Data
Analysis
Cloud Computing
© 2011 IDC 6-12

25. Mobility Explosion Accelerates
Mobile devices & users surge, poised to
challenge PC, radically expand market
Mobile data services spending will pass
fixed data spending for the first time
Media tablets will soar, with iPad holding
a big lead and Microsoft joining the party
Mobile apps war — led by Apple and
Google — continues as stakes get huge
The "app store" phenomenon will spread
to PC and next-gen enterprise solutions
Emerging markets will begin to
dramatically transform the market
© 2011 IDC 6-12 25

26. Cloud Adoption “Mainstreams”
Public cloud services adoption will grow
at over four times the rate of the IT
industry
Cloud services spending will exceed $36
billion this year
2012 is a big year for private cloud
services adoption and deployment
Two cloud “power positions”
§ The platform-as-a-service (PaaS) battle will
determine "the next Microsoft"
§ Battle for hybrid cloud management
Death of “cloud computing” by 2012
© 2011 IDC 6-12 26

27. Western Europe Public Cloud Services
Spending ($m)
8'000
7'000
6'000
5'000
SaaS
4'000
PaaS
3'000 IaaS
2'000
1'000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Benelux
France
Germany
Italy
Nordics
Spain
U.K.
Other
Source : IDC European Public Cloud Services Forecast
© 2011 IDC 6-12 27

28. Big Data: Management & Analytics
The "digital universe" will grow to 2.7ZB in
2012, up 48% from 2011, and rocketing
toward nearly 8ZB by 2015
Continuing buying spree to strengthen
vendors’ information management
capabilities
"Compliant clouds" will become standard
fare
In a world of increasingly "big data," real-
time, pervasive analytics offerings; new
methodologies for data collection
© 2011 IDC 6-12 28

29. Social Business Gets Serious
Enterprise software vendors will get more
aggressive, drive a lot of M&A
Facebook aims at becoming the B2C
platform of choice
Businesses and government focused on
opportunity and risk, new policies to
control explosion of social media and
blurring of lines between business/
personal usage
Privacy concerns on the rise – mobile
location-based advertising
Socio-economic impact could be profound
© 2011 IDC 6-12 29

30. European Social Network Survey
© 2011 IDC 6-12 30

31. Essential Guidance
Technology and Internet transformation
continues, despite economic uncertainty:
• Mobile devices have won decisively as we
enter the post-PC era
• Cloud platform battles will take hold
• Social technologies will be a “must have”,
despite concerns over security and privacy
• Digital Universe continues to explode
• Big Data will be essential capability
• Emerging markets are already the new
center of growth, driving new design points
• Internet of Things will be dominated by
non-traditional IT and machine-to-machine
communications
© 2011 IDC 6-12 31

32. Contact Information
Please email me at
sminton@idc.com
© 2011 IDC 6-1232 32