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International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)
Volume 8, Issue 2, February 2017, pp. 236–251 Article ID: IJCIET_08_02_026
Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed
POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FOR
SOIL AND AIR HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION
IN BAGHDAD CITY
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
Assistant Professor, Environmental Engineering Department, Engineering College,
Babylon University, Iraq
ABSTRACT
This paper was submitted an Environmental Risk Assessment process which is based on
four steps defined by both National Academy of Science and the EPA. These are: Hazard
Identification, Exposure Assessment, Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization. It was
taken into account two environmental media (Soil and Air). At first the concentration of some
heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Zn, Ni and Pb) was collected from previous studied conducted in soil
media at three locations (Residential area, Industrial area and Commercial area)in Urban Soil
within Baghdad City. For air media the lead concentration was taken from previous studied
conducted at two locations (Residential area, Industrial area) in Baghdad city. Also It was
taken into account one environmental soil media. The average concentration of heavy metal
(Cd, Ni and Pb) was collected from previous studied conducted in Baghdad soil media and
different towns samples of environmental soil media. Based on these test results and data
gathered, the potential human health risk assessment based on EPA model was used to
calculate different types of Intake through (ingestion, dermal) for soil media and (ingestion,
dermal and inhalation) for air media, noncarcinogen Hazard Index (HI) and carcinogen Risk
(R) resulted from these exposure routes was also calculated.
The results of the risk assessment indicated that the highest risks for individual element for
both adults and children. Cumulative hazard quotient index (THI) for the study area showed
that the adults and children population were seriously at the risk of chronic non-carcinogenic
health problem.
Key words: Risk-based assessment, Heavy metal, Soil & Air remediation techniques, Baghdad
City.
Cite this Article: Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi, Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air
Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City. International Journal of Civil Engineering and
Technology, 8(2), 2017, pp. 236–251.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2
1. INTRODUCTION
The importance of environmental realities of the Baghdad city a vital fact because this city is the
capital and occupy a large area of Iraq as well as a population of over five million, and most industrial
and commercial activities stationed as well as agricultural activity. the pollution rates increased in the
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
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soil of the Baghdad city because of overlapping set of factors increase the population of the city and
the consequent environmental problems resulting from the depletion of natural resources and
increasing waste of factories, landfills and increase the number of vehicles and other factors that lead
to the introduction of many pollutants into the soil. These problems have increased the risks of
environmental balance and ecosystem constituted a breach of the city [4].
Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) which defined as a tool used to evaluate the risks due to
fate and transport of chemical in an environment which leads to harmful effects of receptors. ERA
includes examinations of risk caused by natural events (flooding, extreme, weather events, etc.),
technology, practice, processes, products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc.) and
adversely affect posed by industrial activities [5]. In this thesis risk assessment concerns with human
health which defined as the process to estimate the nature and probability of adverse health effects in
humans, who may be exposed to chemicals in contaminated environmental media, exist or
potential[6].
Environmental Risk Assessments typically fall into one of two areas:
 Human health risk assessment
 Ecological risk assessment
Risk assessment addresses human health concerns and ecological risk assessment addresses
environmental media and organisms. This study deals with human health risk assessment.
2. AIM OF THE STUDY
 Create a database for including heavy metals concentration in environmental soil and Air media at
contaminated sites in Baghdad City.
 Create a database for including heavy metals concentration in environmental Iraq soil(Baghdad City)
with other data from different towns, (mean)
 Calculate and assess human health risks associated with these contaminants from three exposure
routes(ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation) by using (ERA) tool.
 Comprise between Environmental Risk Assessments for heavy metals in Iraq (Baghdad city) soil with
world soil.
3. HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT
3.1. Hazard Identification
Hazard identification includes identifying those sources that cause damage to receptors, especially
human, living organisms, and ecosystem. This stage usually focuses on the most dangerous chemicals
(which are classified as hazardous chemicals on humans and sorted according to toxicity carcinogenic
or non-carcinogenic) [9].
3.2. Exposure Assessment
Exposure assessment defined as the estimation of the magnitude, frequency, duration, and route of
exposure. The purpose of exposure assessment is the estimation of the contaminant concentrations and
dosages to the populations at risk. More specifically, the primary tasks in exposure assessments
include:
 Identifying potentially exposed populations,
 Identifying potential exposure pathways,
 Estimating exposure concentrations, and
Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City
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 Estimating chemical intakes [7].
For estimation of Intake, EPA recommends the use of exposure data normalizedfortime andbody
weight, which is formulated into an equation for intake (I), the general equation for chemical in take
is:
=
( )( )( )
( )( )
(1)
Where:
I = intake (the amount of chemical at the exchange boundary) (mg/kg-day).
C = the average exposure concentration over the period (e.g., mg/L for water or mg/m3
for air and
mg/kg for soil).|
CR= contact rate, the amount of contaminated medium contacted per unit time (L/day or m3/day or
mg/day).
EFD = exposure frequency and duration, a variable that describes how long and how often exposure
occurs. The EFD is usually divided into two terms:
EF - exposure frequency (days/year).
ED = exposure duration (years).
BW = the average body mass over the exposure period (kg).
AT = averaging time; the period over which the exposure is averaged (days).
Basic formulas and values used for the calculation of ingestion and dermal of soil and ingestion,
dermal and inhalation of air are presented in Table (1&2).
Table 1 Contaminated media and corresponding routes of exposure [10].
Routes of exposureMedia
Ingestion, Dermal contactSoil
Ingestion, Dermal contact, Inhalation of airborne chemicalsAir
Table 2 Basic formulas used for calculation of intake for environmental media and exposure route [10].
EquationExposure
route
Environmental
media
=
( )( )( )( )( )( )
( )( )
Ingestion
Soil
=
( )( )( )( )( )( )( )( )
( )( )
dermal
=
( )( )( )( )
( )( )
IngestionAir
=
( )( )( )( )( )( )( )
( )( )
dermal
=
( )( )( )( )( )
( )( )
inhalation
Where:
ABS= absorption factor for soil contaminant, unit less
AD= absorbed dose, mg/kg.d
AF= soil-to-skin Adherence Factor, mg/c m2
.event.
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
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AT= averaging time, d
BW= body weight, kg
CA= contaminant concentration in air, mgm3
CDI= chronic daily intake, mg/kg.d
CF= volumetric conversion factor for water= 1L/1.000 cm3
= conversion factor for soil = 10-6
kg/mg
CR= contact rate, L/h
CS= chemical concentration in soil, mg/kg
CW= chemical concentration in water, mg/L
ED= exposure duration, y
EF= exposure frequency, d/y or events/y
ET= exposure time, h/d or h/event
EV = Event Frequency (events/day).
FI= fraction ingested, unit less
IR= ingestion rate, L/d or mg soil/d or kg/meal
= inhalation rate, m3
/h
PC= chemical-specific dermal permeability constant, cm/h
SA= skin surface area, cm2
.
4. EXPOSURE PARAMETERS
4.1. Soil Media
IR=200mg/day (child) and 100mg/day (adult) [7]
CF=0.000001kg/mg
FI=1[8].
EF=350 days/year [Residential], 250 days/year [Industrial, Commercial][7]
ED=30 years (adult)[Residential], 25 years (adult)[Industrial, Commercial]and 6 years (child) [7]
BW= (70kg for adult) and (15 kg for child) [10]
AT= (365*30) for adult and (365*6) for child. [7]
SA=5700 cm2
(adult) [Residential], 3300(adult) [Industrial, Commercial][11,12].
SA=2800 cm2
(child) [Residential], NA cm2
(child) [Industrial, Commercial][11,12].
AF=0.07mg/cm2
(adult)[Residential],0.2mg/cm2
(adult)[Industrial,Commercial][11,12]
AF=0.2mg/cm2
(child)[Residential],NAmg/cm2
(child)[Industrial,Commercial][11,12].
EV=1 event/d [3]
ABS = 0.001(adult), 0.03(child) [12,13].
4.2. Air Media
IR=20m3
/day (adult) and 5m3/day (child) [7].
ET=24 hour/day [7].
ED=70 year (carcinogen) [7].
AT=70*365[7].
The other parameter is the same used in previous items.
Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City
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4.3. Toxicity Assessment
Toxicity assessment expresses the acquisition and evaluation of Toxicity data for each contaminant
and then evaluated. This evaluation includes toxic carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, In
this method, (RfDs) and (SFs) used for determining non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic toxicity
respectively. Almost all toxicity assessments make use of available data such as the list of reference
doses and slope factors; therefore, toxicity assessment often includes obtaining tabular RfDs and SF
information related chemicals to which receptors are exposed as shown in Table3.From this
quantitative dose response relationship, toxicity values (e.g., reference doses and slope factors) are
derived that can be used to estimate the incidence or potential for adverse effects as a function of
human exposure to the agent. These toxicity values are used in the risk characterization step to
estimate the likelihood of adverse effects occurring in humans at different exposure levels [14].
Table 3 Oral and Inhalation Slope Factors and RfDs[7].
Inhalation SF
(kg.day/mg)
Inhalation RfD
(mg/kg.day)
Oral SF
(kg.day/mg)
Oral RfD
(mg/kg.day)
Compound
6.10.0005Cadmium
410.005Chromium
0.3Zinc
0.02Nickle
0.0850.006Lead
For evaluating Dermal Exposure, Oral RfDs converted to Dermal RfDs By multiplying with
gastrointestinal absorption fraction (ABSGI), Oral SF can be converted to Dermal SF by dividing the
Oral SF by the ABSGI.
When ABSGI values are not available, USEPA recommends the following defaults for ABSGI:
80% for volatile organics; 50% for semi-volatile organics and nonvolatile organics; and 20% for
inorganic [8].
4.4. Risk Characterization
Risk characterization defined as the calculation of riskforbothnoncarcinogens and carcinogens for
allreceptors that maybeexposed to hazardouswastes. Some of the general requirements include
calculating risk for all of the exposure routes to hazardous chemicals (ingestion and inhalation and
dermal) for both noncarcinogens and carcinogens. Thel non-carcinogenicriskl is calculatedl as
Hazard Index (HI), which is thel ratio of the daily intake to the referenceldosel (RfDl
)[7].
= (2)
Where:
HI = hazard index (dimensionless).
I = intake (mg/kg.day).
RfD = reference dose (mg/kg.day).
Hazard Index <1.0 provides acceptable risk; however, the cumulative acceptable risk for all
contaminants and routes of exposure must be <1.0. If the hazard index is <1.0, the receptors are
exposed to concentrations that do not present a hazard. In such cases, detoxification and other
mechanisms allow the receptor exposure to the contaminant with no toxic effects. Note that the
quantitative value obtained for the HI is not a value of risk; that is, it does not provide a value for the
probability of harm as the result of exposure. Instead, the hazard index quantifies the absence of
effects from exposure to noncarcinogens [7]. To account HI for multiple substances in one way,
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
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EPA sums the hazard indexes for each constituent as follow:
Hazard Index T = ∑ HI 
For multiple pathways:
Hazard Index T = ∑ HI
Where: i=the compound and j= pathways [13].
The carcinogenic risk may be defined as the chronic daily intake dose (developed in the exposure
assessment) multiplied by the carcinogenic slope factor (selected by the toxicity assessment).The
product is a real term: the probability of excess lifetime cancer from exposure to this chemical. The
computation is as follows:
Risk = CDI × SF (3)
Where:
Risk = the probability of carcinogenic risk (dimensionless).
CDI = chronic daily intake (mg/kg.day).
SF = carcinogen slope factor (kg.day/mg)[14].
In a like manner, the risk for multiple substances and pathways is estimated as:
Risk = risk
Where: i=the compound and j= pathways [14].
5. MATERIALS AND METHODS
5.1. Soil Media Samples
Were collected environmental data and information on soil contaminants in the city of Baghdad from
the previous studies. Selected stations located on different parts of the city of Baghdad for the purpose
of collecting samples of soil, plants have been distributed on a regular basis so as to cover most areas
of the city, with a focus on the type of each area as commercial, industrial or residential, as shown in
Table4.
Table 4 Samples of heavy metal in the soil of Baghdadcity[ 1].
Contaminants Concentration(mg/kg)MeanLocations
of samples
Environmen-
tal media PbNiZnCrCd
87.0686.7651.2423.090.29Roadside soilResidential
area
Soil
94.9080.4246.5126.460.23Open area soil
90.9883.5948.8824.770.26All soils
156.1480.8294.9232.690.94Roadside soilIndustrial
area 131.6888.6386.7235.240.93Open area soil
143.9184.7390.8233.960.93All soils
110.3072.7668.8824.210.45Roadside soilCommercial
area 103.8176.8560.0928.270.40Open area soil
107.0674.8164.4926.240.43All soils
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5.2. Air Media Samples
Table (5 & 6) shows the concentration of lead in air was taken from previous studies conducted in
Baghdad city as a trial for evaluation of lead in air from variable source at different type of stations as
follow:
A study evaluated air lead concentration in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city as a result of
the industrial expansion and population increase and increasing number of cars at different locations in
industrial, residential region. Also study taken into account on the concentration of lead in streets-dust
samples in Baghdad city air.
5.3. Concentration of Lead in Baghdad City Air
Table 5 Lead concentration (ppm) in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city air [2].
Lead
Concentratio
n
Sample
weight (gm)
Sampling
height(m)
District
name
Locations
of samples
Environme
nt-al
media
610.356Bunouk
Residential
area
Air
Air-borne
dust
290.98GroundAdhamiya
220.783Adhamiya
150.376Adhamiya
351.05GroundMansour
280.883Mansour
180.506Mansour
460.686Al-Atibaa
140.556Saydia
350.406Doura
850.476WaziriaIndustrial area
Table 6 Lead concentration (ppm) in streets-dust samples in Baghdad city air [2].
Lead ConcentrationDistrict nameLocations
of samples
Environmental
media
42Shaab
Residential area
areAir
streets-dust
51Al-Sadir
47Washash
38Mansour
24Al-Atibaa
95Waziria
Industrial area 211Shaikh Umar
170Shaikh Maarouf
5.4. Heavy Metals in Baghdad City Soil with World Soil
The environmental data of the concentrations of trace elements in soils and areas of Baghdad,
compared with the determinants of global concentrations in the soilwas taken from previous studies
[4], Table7 show summarize the comparison between the concentrations of trace elements in the soil
of the city of Baghdad with Bas soils in the world.
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
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Table 7 Comparison between heavy metal in Baghdad city soil with world soil.
ReferencePbNiZnCdCountry
[1]113.9881.0468.060.54Baghdad
[4]
48052220012USA
700803000-England
1805115676.7Sweden
6. RESULTS
Example of calculation of ingestion intake and non carcinogen HI of water (Cadmium -adult) by using
average value of concentration at Residential land use in Baghdad city by using suitable equation and
assumption.
I =
(CS)(IR)(CF)(FI)(EF)(ED)
(BW)(AT)
= (0.26mg/kg)(100mg/day)(0.000001kg/mg)(1)(350day/y)(30y) / (70 kg) (10950 day)
=3.56164×10-4
mg/kg.day
HI=I/RfD =3.56164×10-4
/0.0005=0.71232
By the same manner for each contaminants, exposure route and environmental media, the
following result were obtained. Indicators, abbreviations and units for parameters used were shown in
Table8.
Table 8 Indicators, Abbreviations and Units for parameter
Indicators Abbreviations Units
Ingestion Intake Iing mg/kg.day
Absorbed dose from dermal contact Ider mg/kg.day
Inhalation Intake Iinh mg/kg.day
Hazard Index for ingestion HIing -------
Hazard Index for dermal contact HIder -------
Hazard Index for Inhalation HIinh -------
Risk from ingestion Ring -------
Risk from dermal contact Rder -------
Risk from Inhalation Rinh -------
Reference Dose RfD mg/kg.day
Slop Factor SF kg.day/mg
Concentration Conc. mg/kg for soil , mg/m3
for air
Total noncarcinogen Hazard Index HI -------
Total carcinogen Risk R -------
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6.1. Soil Media
Table 9 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Residential area in Baghdad city.
Contamina
nt
HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.71232 2.84×10-6
0 0.71232 0 0 0 0
Chromium 6.78×10-3
2.70×10-5
0 6.81×10-3
0 0 0 0
Zinc 2.23×10-4
8.90×10-7
0 2.24×10-4
0 0 0 0
Nickle 5.72×10-3
2.28×10-5
0 5.74×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.02077 8.28×10-5
0 0.02085 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.74594 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 10 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Residential area use in Baghdad city.
Contamina
nt
HI (child) (noncarcinogen) R (child) (carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 6.64×10-3
5.58×10-4
0 7.19×10-3
0 0 0 0
Chromium 0.06333 5.32×10-3
0 0.06865 0 0 0 0
Zinc 2.08×10-3
1.74×10-4
0 2.25×10-3
0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.05343 4.48×10-3
0 0.05791 0 0 0 0
Lead 0.19386 0.016285 0 0.21014 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.34614 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 11 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Industrial area in Baghdad city.
Contamin
ant
HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 1.81×10-3
1.20×10-5
0 1.82×10-3
0 0 0 0
Chromium 6.64×10-3
4.38×10-5
0 6.68×10-3
0 0 0 0
Zinc 2.96×10-4
1.95×10-6
0 2.98×10-4
0 0 0 0
Nickle 4.14×10-3
2.73×10-5
0 4.17×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.02346 1.54×10-4
0 0.02361 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.03658 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
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Table 12 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Industrial area in Baghdad city.
Contamin
ant
HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen)
HIing HI
der
HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.01698 0 0 0.01698 0 0 0 0
Chromium 0.06202 0 0 0.06202 0 0 0 0
Zinc 2.76×10-3
0 0 2.76×10-3
0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.03868 0 0 0.03868 0 0 0 0
Lead 0.21904 0 0 0.21904 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.33672 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 13 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Commercial area in Baghdad city.
Contamin
ant
HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 8.41×10-4
5.55×10-6
0 8.46×10-4
0 0 0 0
Chromium 5.13×10-3
3.38×10-5
0 5.16×10-3
0 0 0 0
Zinc 2.10×10-4
1.38×10-6
0 2.11×10-4
0 0 0 0
Nickle 3.65×10-3
2.41×10-5
0 3.67×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.01745 1.15×10-4
0 0.01756 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.02744 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 14 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Commercial area in Baghdad city.
Contamin
ant
HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen)
HIing HI
der
HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 7.85×10-3
0 0 7.85×10-3
0 0 0 0
Chromium 0.04792 0 0 0.04792 0 0 0 0
Zinc 1.96×10-3
0 0 1.96×10-3
0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.03415 0 0 0.03415 0 0 0 0
Lead 0.16295 0 0 0.16295 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.25483 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
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6.2. Air Media
Table 15 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for adults in air-borne dust
samples in Baghdad city air.
R(adult)(carcinogen)HI(adult)(noncarcinogen)
District
name
Locations
of samples
+
+ R )
R
inh
R
der
R
ing
+
+ HI )
HI
inh
HI
der
HI
ing
1.41×10-3
1.41×10-3
002.7853901.90×10-5
2.78538Bunouk
Residential
area
6.75×10-4
6.75×10-4
001.3242109.05×10-6
1.32420Adhamiya
5.12×10-4
5.12×10-4
001.0045706.87×10-6
1.00456Adhamiya
3.49×10-4
3.49×10-4
000.6849304.68×10-6
0.68493Adhamiya
8.14×10-4
8.14×10-4
001.5981801.09×10-5
1.59817Mansour
6.51×10-4
6.51×10-4
001.2785408.74×10-6
1.27853Mansour
4.19×10-4
4.19×10-4
000.8219305.62×10-6
0.82192Mansour
1.07×10-3
1.07×10-3
002.1004601.43×10-5
2.10045Al-Atibaa
3.25×10-4
3.25×10-4
000.6392604.37×10-6
0.63926Saydia
8.14×10-4
8.14×10-4
001.5981801.09×10-5
1.59817Doura
1.41×10-3
1.41×10-3
002.7723501.10×10-5
2.77234WaziriaIndustrial
Area
Table 16 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for child in air-borne dust
samples in Baghdad city air.
R(child)(carcinogen)HI(child)(noncarcinogen)
District
name
Locations
of samples
+
+ R )
R
inh
R
der
R
ing
+
+ HI )
HI
inh
HI
der
HI
ing
1.65×10-3
1.65×10-3
003.2496504.36×10-5
3.24961Bunouk
Residential
area
7.86×10-4
7.86×10-4
001.5449202.07×10-5
1.54490Adhamiya
5.96×10-4
5.96×10-4
001.1720001.57×10-5
1.17199Adhamiya
4.06×10-4
4.06×10-4
000.7990901.07×10-5
0.79908Adhamiya
9.49×10-4
9.49×10-4
001.8645502.50×10-5
1.86453Mansour
7.59×10-4
7.59×10-4
001.4916402.01×10-5
1.49162Mansour
4.88×10-4
4.88×10-4
000.9589101.28×10-5
0.95890Mansour
1.24×10-3
1.24×10-3
002.4505603.29×10-5
2.45053Al-Atibaa
3.79×10-4
3.79×10-4
000.7458201.01×10-5
0.74581Saydia
9.49×10-4
9.49×10-4
001.8645502.50×10-5
1.86453Doura
1.64×10-3
1.64×10-3
003.23439003.23439WaziriaIndustrial
area
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 247 editor@iaeme.com
Table 17 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for adults in streets-dust samples
in Baghdad city air.
R(adult)(carcinogen)HI(adult)(noncarcinogen)District
name
Locations
of
samples
+
+ R )
R
inh
R
der
R
ing
+
+ HI )
H
I
inh
HI
der
HI
ing
9.77×10-4
9.77×10-4
001.9178101.31×10-5
1.91780Shaab
Residentia
l area
1.18×10-3
1.18×10-3
002.3287701.59×10-5
2.32876Al-Sadir
1.09×10-3
1.09×10-3
002.1461201.46×10-5
2.14611Washash
8.84×10-4
8.84×10-4
001.7351601.18×10-5
1.73515Mansour
5.58×10-4
5.58×10-4
001.0958907.49×10-6
1.09589Al-Atibaa
1.57×10-3
1.57×10-3
003.0985001.22×10-5
3.09849Waziria
Industrial
area
3.50×10-3
3.50×10-3
006.8819502.72×10-5
6.88193Shaikh
Umar
2.82×10-3
2.82×10-3
005.5447002.19×10-5
5.54468Shaikh
Maarouf
Table 18 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for child in streets-dust samples
in Baghdad city air.
R(child)(carcinogen)HI(child)(noncarcinogen)District
name
Locations
of
samples
+
+ R )
R
inh
R
der
R
ing
+
+ HI )
H
I
inh
HI
der
HI
ing
1.13×10-3
1.13×10-3
002.2374703.01×10-5
2.23744Shaab
Residentia
l area
1.38×10-3
1.38×10-3
002.7169203.65×10-5
2.71689Al-Sadir
1.27×10-3
1.27×10-3
002.5038303.36×10-5
2.50380Washash
1.03×10-3
1.03×10-3
002.0243702.72×10-5
2.02435Mansour
6.51×10-4
6.51×10-4
001.2785401.71×10-5
1.27853Al-Atibaa
1.84×10-3
1.84×10-3
003.61491003.61491Waziria
Industrial
area
4.08×10-3
4.08×10-3
008.02891008.02891Shaikh
Umar
3.29×10-3
3.29×10-3
006.46879006.46879Shaikh
Maarouf
6.3. Comprise Iraq soil Media with World Soil
Table 19 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in Iraq Soil
(Baghdad city).
Contamin
ant
HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 1.54×10-3
5.90×10-4
0 2.13×10-3
0 0 0 0
Zinc 3.24×10-4
1.24×10-4
0 4.48×10-4
0 0 0 0
Nickle 5.78×10-3
2.21×10-3
0 7.99×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.02713 0.01039 0 0.03752 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.04808 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 248 editor@iaeme.com
Table 20 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in Iraq Soil
(Baghdad city).
Contamina
nt
HI (child) (noncarcinogen) R (child) (carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.01440 0.05441 0 0.06881 0 0 0 0
Zinc 3.02×10-3
0.01143 0 0.01445 0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.05402 0.20416 0 0.25818 0 0 0 0
Lead 0.25328 0.95718 0 1.21046 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 1.5519 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 21 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in USA Soil.
Contamin
ant
HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.03428 0.01313 0 0.04741 0 0 0 0
Zinc 0.01047 4.01×10-3
0 0.01448 0 0 0 0
Nickle 3.71×10-3
1.42×10-3
0 5.13×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.11428 0.04376 0 0.15804 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.22506 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 22 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in USA Soil.
Contamina
nt
HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.32 1.20928 0 1.52928 0 0 0 0
Zinc 0.09778 0.36950 0 0.46728 0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.03467 0.13100 0 0.16567 0 0 0 0
Lead 1.06667 4.03094 0 5.09761 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 7.25984 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 23 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in England Soil.
Contamin
ant
HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium --- --- --- --- -- -- -- ---
Zinc 0.01428 5.47×10-3
0 0.01975 0 0 0 0
Nickle 5.71×10-3
2.18×10-3
0 7.89×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.16667 0.06382 0 0.23049 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.25813 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 249 editor@iaeme.com
Table 24 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in England Soil.
Contamina
nt
HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium --- --- --- --- -- -- -- ---
Zinc 0.13333 0.50386 0 0.63719 0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.05333 0.20154 0 0.25487 0 0 0 0
Lead 1.55556 5.87846 0 7.43402 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 8.32608 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 25 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in Sweden Soil.
Contamin
ant
HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.01914 7.33×10-3
0 0.02647 0 0 0 0
Zinc 7.46×10-3
2.85×10-3
0 0.01031 0 0 0 0
Nickle 3.64×10-3
1.39×10-3
0 5.03×10-3
0 0 0 0
Lead 0.04285 0.01641 0 0.05926 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 0.10107 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
Table 26 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in Sweden Soil.
Contamina
nt
HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen)
HIing HIder HI
inh
+
+ HI )
R
ing
R
der
R
inh
+
+ R )
Cadmium 0.17867 0.67518 0 0.85385 0 0 0 0
Zinc 0.06964 0.26318 0 0.33282 0 0 0 0
Nickle 0.034 0.12848 0 0.16248 0 0 0 0
Lead 0.4 1.51160 0 1.9116 0 0 0 0
∑∑ + + HI 3.26075 ∑∑ +
+ R )
0
7. DISCUSSION
This study which contained Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) that estimating the amount and
seriousness of released pollutants. Which used in directories of environment for large filed (oral
exposure of inhabitants) in the Baghdad city indicated that the non-carcinogenic risk tends to become
significant for children and adults with exposure duration of 6yrs and 30yrs respectively.
1- Air media in Baghdad city was high polluted by lead, especially at industrial. Therefore inhalation
intake and risk were very high which may cause cancer or other diseases related to lead poisoning.
2- For soil media, noncarcinogen HI resulted from ingestion of soil was insignificant but the
cumulative non-carcinogenic risk resulted from dermal contact tends to become significant , mainly
Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 250 editor@iaeme.com
for children , since it approaches unacceptable values and there was no particularly dangerous single
heavy metal , but their cumulative effect, , is for concern.
3-From the comparison between the results of the Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Adult and Child
[HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in Baghdad city soil with World soil media as shown in Fig
[1&2], it was noticed that there were significant difference between the results in Baghdad city soil
with World soil.USA and England were high polluted by lead. therefore [ingestion intake and dermal
intake]risk were very high which may cause cancer or other diseases related to lead poisoning.
Figure 1 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Adult [HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in World Soil Media.
Figure 2 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Child [HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in World Soil Media.
8. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Author is grateful to Prof. Dr. Mohammad Abed Muslim Al-Tufaily for the assistance given me to
complete the work study involved in writing this paper.
HIing+HIder
Baghdad USA England Sweden
HIing+HIder
Baghdad USA England Sweden
Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 251 editor@iaeme.com
REFERENCES
[1] Abdul Hameed M. J. Al Obaidy, Athmar A. M. Al Mashhadi, "Heavy Metal Contaminations in
Urban Soil within Baghdad City, Iraq", Journal of Environmental Protection, Vol.4, (2013), pp.72-
82. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2013. 41008.
[2] Khaldoun S. Al-Bassam*, Nour N. Abdul Karim** and Muthana A. Al-Umar, "A Survey of Dust-
Borne Lead Concentration in Baghdad City", Iraqi Bulletin of Geology and Mining, Vol.5, No.2,
(2009), p 1- 12.
[3] Mark G. R., “Risk Assessment for Environmental Health ", John Wiley & sons, (2007).
[4] Maitham A. Sultan, "Evaluation of Soil pollution by heavy metals in Baghdad city using GIS" , The
1st
International Applied Geological Congress, Department of Geology, Islamic Azad University –
Mashad Branch, Iran, 26-28 April (2010).
[5] Ortolano. L., “Environmental Regulation and Impact Assessment”, John Wiley & Sonc, Inc,
(1997).
[6] “Physical Planning Directorate in Babylon Governorate”(2006).
[7] Richard J. Watts, “Hazardous Wastes”, department of Civil and Environmental engineering,
Washington state university, copy by John Wiley & Sons, (1997).
[8] Rodriguez R. ・Grant R. L., “Handbook of Environmental Chemistry Vol. 5, Part F,” Springer -
Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, (2005).
[9] Sonnemann, G, “Integrated Life-Cycle and Risk Assessment For Industrial Processes”, Lewis
Publishers, (2004).
[10] Susan J. M., “Principles of Environmental Engineering and Science”, McGraw Hill, New York,
(2004).
[11] USEPA, "Exposure Factor Handbook", (1997).
[12] USEPA, “Dermal Exposure Assessment: Principal and Applications”, EPA/600/8-91/011B, (1992).
[13] USEPA. Regional Screening Level Table (RSL) for Chemical Contaminants at Superfund Sites;
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, USA, (2011).
[14] USEPA, “Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I Human Health Evaluation Manual
(Part A)”, (EPA/540/1-89/002), (1989).
[15] Bader A. Hakami, Gold Mines and Impact of Heavy Metals on the Environment. International
Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 6(2), 2015, pp. 70–80.

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POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SOIL AND AIR HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION IN BAGHDAD CITY

  • 1. http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 236 editor@iaeme.com International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 8, Issue 2, February 2017, pp. 236–251 Article ID: IJCIET_08_02_026 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2 ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316 © IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SOIL AND AIR HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION IN BAGHDAD CITY Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi Assistant Professor, Environmental Engineering Department, Engineering College, Babylon University, Iraq ABSTRACT This paper was submitted an Environmental Risk Assessment process which is based on four steps defined by both National Academy of Science and the EPA. These are: Hazard Identification, Exposure Assessment, Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization. It was taken into account two environmental media (Soil and Air). At first the concentration of some heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Zn, Ni and Pb) was collected from previous studied conducted in soil media at three locations (Residential area, Industrial area and Commercial area)in Urban Soil within Baghdad City. For air media the lead concentration was taken from previous studied conducted at two locations (Residential area, Industrial area) in Baghdad city. Also It was taken into account one environmental soil media. The average concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Ni and Pb) was collected from previous studied conducted in Baghdad soil media and different towns samples of environmental soil media. Based on these test results and data gathered, the potential human health risk assessment based on EPA model was used to calculate different types of Intake through (ingestion, dermal) for soil media and (ingestion, dermal and inhalation) for air media, noncarcinogen Hazard Index (HI) and carcinogen Risk (R) resulted from these exposure routes was also calculated. The results of the risk assessment indicated that the highest risks for individual element for both adults and children. Cumulative hazard quotient index (THI) for the study area showed that the adults and children population were seriously at the risk of chronic non-carcinogenic health problem. Key words: Risk-based assessment, Heavy metal, Soil & Air remediation techniques, Baghdad City. Cite this Article: Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi, Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8(2), 2017, pp. 236–251. http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=2 1. INTRODUCTION The importance of environmental realities of the Baghdad city a vital fact because this city is the capital and occupy a large area of Iraq as well as a population of over five million, and most industrial and commercial activities stationed as well as agricultural activity. the pollution rates increased in the
  • 2. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 237 editor@iaeme.com soil of the Baghdad city because of overlapping set of factors increase the population of the city and the consequent environmental problems resulting from the depletion of natural resources and increasing waste of factories, landfills and increase the number of vehicles and other factors that lead to the introduction of many pollutants into the soil. These problems have increased the risks of environmental balance and ecosystem constituted a breach of the city [4]. Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) which defined as a tool used to evaluate the risks due to fate and transport of chemical in an environment which leads to harmful effects of receptors. ERA includes examinations of risk caused by natural events (flooding, extreme, weather events, etc.), technology, practice, processes, products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc.) and adversely affect posed by industrial activities [5]. In this thesis risk assessment concerns with human health which defined as the process to estimate the nature and probability of adverse health effects in humans, who may be exposed to chemicals in contaminated environmental media, exist or potential[6]. Environmental Risk Assessments typically fall into one of two areas:  Human health risk assessment  Ecological risk assessment Risk assessment addresses human health concerns and ecological risk assessment addresses environmental media and organisms. This study deals with human health risk assessment. 2. AIM OF THE STUDY  Create a database for including heavy metals concentration in environmental soil and Air media at contaminated sites in Baghdad City.  Create a database for including heavy metals concentration in environmental Iraq soil(Baghdad City) with other data from different towns, (mean)  Calculate and assess human health risks associated with these contaminants from three exposure routes(ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation) by using (ERA) tool.  Comprise between Environmental Risk Assessments for heavy metals in Iraq (Baghdad city) soil with world soil. 3. HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT 3.1. Hazard Identification Hazard identification includes identifying those sources that cause damage to receptors, especially human, living organisms, and ecosystem. This stage usually focuses on the most dangerous chemicals (which are classified as hazardous chemicals on humans and sorted according to toxicity carcinogenic or non-carcinogenic) [9]. 3.2. Exposure Assessment Exposure assessment defined as the estimation of the magnitude, frequency, duration, and route of exposure. The purpose of exposure assessment is the estimation of the contaminant concentrations and dosages to the populations at risk. More specifically, the primary tasks in exposure assessments include:  Identifying potentially exposed populations,  Identifying potential exposure pathways,  Estimating exposure concentrations, and
  • 3. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 238 editor@iaeme.com  Estimating chemical intakes [7]. For estimation of Intake, EPA recommends the use of exposure data normalizedfortime andbody weight, which is formulated into an equation for intake (I), the general equation for chemical in take is: = ( )( )( ) ( )( ) (1) Where: I = intake (the amount of chemical at the exchange boundary) (mg/kg-day). C = the average exposure concentration over the period (e.g., mg/L for water or mg/m3 for air and mg/kg for soil).| CR= contact rate, the amount of contaminated medium contacted per unit time (L/day or m3/day or mg/day). EFD = exposure frequency and duration, a variable that describes how long and how often exposure occurs. The EFD is usually divided into two terms: EF - exposure frequency (days/year). ED = exposure duration (years). BW = the average body mass over the exposure period (kg). AT = averaging time; the period over which the exposure is averaged (days). Basic formulas and values used for the calculation of ingestion and dermal of soil and ingestion, dermal and inhalation of air are presented in Table (1&2). Table 1 Contaminated media and corresponding routes of exposure [10]. Routes of exposureMedia Ingestion, Dermal contactSoil Ingestion, Dermal contact, Inhalation of airborne chemicalsAir Table 2 Basic formulas used for calculation of intake for environmental media and exposure route [10]. EquationExposure route Environmental media = ( )( )( )( )( )( ) ( )( ) Ingestion Soil = ( )( )( )( )( )( )( )( ) ( )( ) dermal = ( )( )( )( ) ( )( ) IngestionAir = ( )( )( )( )( )( )( ) ( )( ) dermal = ( )( )( )( )( ) ( )( ) inhalation Where: ABS= absorption factor for soil contaminant, unit less AD= absorbed dose, mg/kg.d AF= soil-to-skin Adherence Factor, mg/c m2 .event.
  • 4. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 239 editor@iaeme.com AT= averaging time, d BW= body weight, kg CA= contaminant concentration in air, mgm3 CDI= chronic daily intake, mg/kg.d CF= volumetric conversion factor for water= 1L/1.000 cm3 = conversion factor for soil = 10-6 kg/mg CR= contact rate, L/h CS= chemical concentration in soil, mg/kg CW= chemical concentration in water, mg/L ED= exposure duration, y EF= exposure frequency, d/y or events/y ET= exposure time, h/d or h/event EV = Event Frequency (events/day). FI= fraction ingested, unit less IR= ingestion rate, L/d or mg soil/d or kg/meal = inhalation rate, m3 /h PC= chemical-specific dermal permeability constant, cm/h SA= skin surface area, cm2 . 4. EXPOSURE PARAMETERS 4.1. Soil Media IR=200mg/day (child) and 100mg/day (adult) [7] CF=0.000001kg/mg FI=1[8]. EF=350 days/year [Residential], 250 days/year [Industrial, Commercial][7] ED=30 years (adult)[Residential], 25 years (adult)[Industrial, Commercial]and 6 years (child) [7] BW= (70kg for adult) and (15 kg for child) [10] AT= (365*30) for adult and (365*6) for child. [7] SA=5700 cm2 (adult) [Residential], 3300(adult) [Industrial, Commercial][11,12]. SA=2800 cm2 (child) [Residential], NA cm2 (child) [Industrial, Commercial][11,12]. AF=0.07mg/cm2 (adult)[Residential],0.2mg/cm2 (adult)[Industrial,Commercial][11,12] AF=0.2mg/cm2 (child)[Residential],NAmg/cm2 (child)[Industrial,Commercial][11,12]. EV=1 event/d [3] ABS = 0.001(adult), 0.03(child) [12,13]. 4.2. Air Media IR=20m3 /day (adult) and 5m3/day (child) [7]. ET=24 hour/day [7]. ED=70 year (carcinogen) [7]. AT=70*365[7]. The other parameter is the same used in previous items.
  • 5. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 240 editor@iaeme.com 4.3. Toxicity Assessment Toxicity assessment expresses the acquisition and evaluation of Toxicity data for each contaminant and then evaluated. This evaluation includes toxic carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, In this method, (RfDs) and (SFs) used for determining non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic toxicity respectively. Almost all toxicity assessments make use of available data such as the list of reference doses and slope factors; therefore, toxicity assessment often includes obtaining tabular RfDs and SF information related chemicals to which receptors are exposed as shown in Table3.From this quantitative dose response relationship, toxicity values (e.g., reference doses and slope factors) are derived that can be used to estimate the incidence or potential for adverse effects as a function of human exposure to the agent. These toxicity values are used in the risk characterization step to estimate the likelihood of adverse effects occurring in humans at different exposure levels [14]. Table 3 Oral and Inhalation Slope Factors and RfDs[7]. Inhalation SF (kg.day/mg) Inhalation RfD (mg/kg.day) Oral SF (kg.day/mg) Oral RfD (mg/kg.day) Compound 6.10.0005Cadmium 410.005Chromium 0.3Zinc 0.02Nickle 0.0850.006Lead For evaluating Dermal Exposure, Oral RfDs converted to Dermal RfDs By multiplying with gastrointestinal absorption fraction (ABSGI), Oral SF can be converted to Dermal SF by dividing the Oral SF by the ABSGI. When ABSGI values are not available, USEPA recommends the following defaults for ABSGI: 80% for volatile organics; 50% for semi-volatile organics and nonvolatile organics; and 20% for inorganic [8]. 4.4. Risk Characterization Risk characterization defined as the calculation of riskforbothnoncarcinogens and carcinogens for allreceptors that maybeexposed to hazardouswastes. Some of the general requirements include calculating risk for all of the exposure routes to hazardous chemicals (ingestion and inhalation and dermal) for both noncarcinogens and carcinogens. Thel non-carcinogenicriskl is calculatedl as Hazard Index (HI), which is thel ratio of the daily intake to the referenceldosel (RfDl )[7]. = (2) Where: HI = hazard index (dimensionless). I = intake (mg/kg.day). RfD = reference dose (mg/kg.day). Hazard Index <1.0 provides acceptable risk; however, the cumulative acceptable risk for all contaminants and routes of exposure must be <1.0. If the hazard index is <1.0, the receptors are exposed to concentrations that do not present a hazard. In such cases, detoxification and other mechanisms allow the receptor exposure to the contaminant with no toxic effects. Note that the quantitative value obtained for the HI is not a value of risk; that is, it does not provide a value for the probability of harm as the result of exposure. Instead, the hazard index quantifies the absence of effects from exposure to noncarcinogens [7]. To account HI for multiple substances in one way,
  • 6. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 241 editor@iaeme.com EPA sums the hazard indexes for each constituent as follow: Hazard Index T = ∑ HI  For multiple pathways: Hazard Index T = ∑ HI Where: i=the compound and j= pathways [13]. The carcinogenic risk may be defined as the chronic daily intake dose (developed in the exposure assessment) multiplied by the carcinogenic slope factor (selected by the toxicity assessment).The product is a real term: the probability of excess lifetime cancer from exposure to this chemical. The computation is as follows: Risk = CDI × SF (3) Where: Risk = the probability of carcinogenic risk (dimensionless). CDI = chronic daily intake (mg/kg.day). SF = carcinogen slope factor (kg.day/mg)[14]. In a like manner, the risk for multiple substances and pathways is estimated as: Risk = risk Where: i=the compound and j= pathways [14]. 5. MATERIALS AND METHODS 5.1. Soil Media Samples Were collected environmental data and information on soil contaminants in the city of Baghdad from the previous studies. Selected stations located on different parts of the city of Baghdad for the purpose of collecting samples of soil, plants have been distributed on a regular basis so as to cover most areas of the city, with a focus on the type of each area as commercial, industrial or residential, as shown in Table4. Table 4 Samples of heavy metal in the soil of Baghdadcity[ 1]. Contaminants Concentration(mg/kg)MeanLocations of samples Environmen- tal media PbNiZnCrCd 87.0686.7651.2423.090.29Roadside soilResidential area Soil 94.9080.4246.5126.460.23Open area soil 90.9883.5948.8824.770.26All soils 156.1480.8294.9232.690.94Roadside soilIndustrial area 131.6888.6386.7235.240.93Open area soil 143.9184.7390.8233.960.93All soils 110.3072.7668.8824.210.45Roadside soilCommercial area 103.8176.8560.0928.270.40Open area soil 107.0674.8164.4926.240.43All soils
  • 7. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 242 editor@iaeme.com 5.2. Air Media Samples Table (5 & 6) shows the concentration of lead in air was taken from previous studies conducted in Baghdad city as a trial for evaluation of lead in air from variable source at different type of stations as follow: A study evaluated air lead concentration in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city as a result of the industrial expansion and population increase and increasing number of cars at different locations in industrial, residential region. Also study taken into account on the concentration of lead in streets-dust samples in Baghdad city air. 5.3. Concentration of Lead in Baghdad City Air Table 5 Lead concentration (ppm) in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city air [2]. Lead Concentratio n Sample weight (gm) Sampling height(m) District name Locations of samples Environme nt-al media 610.356Bunouk Residential area Air Air-borne dust 290.98GroundAdhamiya 220.783Adhamiya 150.376Adhamiya 351.05GroundMansour 280.883Mansour 180.506Mansour 460.686Al-Atibaa 140.556Saydia 350.406Doura 850.476WaziriaIndustrial area Table 6 Lead concentration (ppm) in streets-dust samples in Baghdad city air [2]. Lead ConcentrationDistrict nameLocations of samples Environmental media 42Shaab Residential area areAir streets-dust 51Al-Sadir 47Washash 38Mansour 24Al-Atibaa 95Waziria Industrial area 211Shaikh Umar 170Shaikh Maarouf 5.4. Heavy Metals in Baghdad City Soil with World Soil The environmental data of the concentrations of trace elements in soils and areas of Baghdad, compared with the determinants of global concentrations in the soilwas taken from previous studies [4], Table7 show summarize the comparison between the concentrations of trace elements in the soil of the city of Baghdad with Bas soils in the world.
  • 8. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 243 editor@iaeme.com Table 7 Comparison between heavy metal in Baghdad city soil with world soil. ReferencePbNiZnCdCountry [1]113.9881.0468.060.54Baghdad [4] 48052220012USA 700803000-England 1805115676.7Sweden 6. RESULTS Example of calculation of ingestion intake and non carcinogen HI of water (Cadmium -adult) by using average value of concentration at Residential land use in Baghdad city by using suitable equation and assumption. I = (CS)(IR)(CF)(FI)(EF)(ED) (BW)(AT) = (0.26mg/kg)(100mg/day)(0.000001kg/mg)(1)(350day/y)(30y) / (70 kg) (10950 day) =3.56164×10-4 mg/kg.day HI=I/RfD =3.56164×10-4 /0.0005=0.71232 By the same manner for each contaminants, exposure route and environmental media, the following result were obtained. Indicators, abbreviations and units for parameters used were shown in Table8. Table 8 Indicators, Abbreviations and Units for parameter Indicators Abbreviations Units Ingestion Intake Iing mg/kg.day Absorbed dose from dermal contact Ider mg/kg.day Inhalation Intake Iinh mg/kg.day Hazard Index for ingestion HIing ------- Hazard Index for dermal contact HIder ------- Hazard Index for Inhalation HIinh ------- Risk from ingestion Ring ------- Risk from dermal contact Rder ------- Risk from Inhalation Rinh ------- Reference Dose RfD mg/kg.day Slop Factor SF kg.day/mg Concentration Conc. mg/kg for soil , mg/m3 for air Total noncarcinogen Hazard Index HI ------- Total carcinogen Risk R -------
  • 9. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 244 editor@iaeme.com 6.1. Soil Media Table 9 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Residential area in Baghdad city. Contamina nt HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.71232 2.84×10-6 0 0.71232 0 0 0 0 Chromium 6.78×10-3 2.70×10-5 0 6.81×10-3 0 0 0 0 Zinc 2.23×10-4 8.90×10-7 0 2.24×10-4 0 0 0 0 Nickle 5.72×10-3 2.28×10-5 0 5.74×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.02077 8.28×10-5 0 0.02085 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.74594 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 10 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Residential area use in Baghdad city. Contamina nt HI (child) (noncarcinogen) R (child) (carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 6.64×10-3 5.58×10-4 0 7.19×10-3 0 0 0 0 Chromium 0.06333 5.32×10-3 0 0.06865 0 0 0 0 Zinc 2.08×10-3 1.74×10-4 0 2.25×10-3 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.05343 4.48×10-3 0 0.05791 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.19386 0.016285 0 0.21014 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.34614 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 11 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Industrial area in Baghdad city. Contamin ant HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 1.81×10-3 1.20×10-5 0 1.82×10-3 0 0 0 0 Chromium 6.64×10-3 4.38×10-5 0 6.68×10-3 0 0 0 0 Zinc 2.96×10-4 1.95×10-6 0 2.98×10-4 0 0 0 0 Nickle 4.14×10-3 2.73×10-5 0 4.17×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.02346 1.54×10-4 0 0.02361 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.03658 ∑∑ + + R ) 0
  • 10. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 245 editor@iaeme.com Table 12 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Industrial area in Baghdad city. Contamin ant HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen) HIing HI der HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.01698 0 0 0.01698 0 0 0 0 Chromium 0.06202 0 0 0.06202 0 0 0 0 Zinc 2.76×10-3 0 0 2.76×10-3 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.03868 0 0 0.03868 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.21904 0 0 0.21904 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.33672 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 13 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for adult, at Commercial area in Baghdad city. Contamin ant HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 8.41×10-4 5.55×10-6 0 8.46×10-4 0 0 0 0 Chromium 5.13×10-3 3.38×10-5 0 5.16×10-3 0 0 0 0 Zinc 2.10×10-4 1.38×10-6 0 2.11×10-4 0 0 0 0 Nickle 3.65×10-3 2.41×10-5 0 3.67×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.01745 1.15×10-4 0 0.01756 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.02744 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 14 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for child, at Commercial area in Baghdad city. Contamin ant HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen) HIing HI der HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 7.85×10-3 0 0 7.85×10-3 0 0 0 0 Chromium 0.04792 0 0 0.04792 0 0 0 0 Zinc 1.96×10-3 0 0 1.96×10-3 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.03415 0 0 0.03415 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.16295 0 0 0.16295 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.25483 ∑∑ + + R ) 0
  • 11. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 246 editor@iaeme.com 6.2. Air Media Table 15 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for adults in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city air. R(adult)(carcinogen)HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) District name Locations of samples + + R ) R inh R der R ing + + HI ) HI inh HI der HI ing 1.41×10-3 1.41×10-3 002.7853901.90×10-5 2.78538Bunouk Residential area 6.75×10-4 6.75×10-4 001.3242109.05×10-6 1.32420Adhamiya 5.12×10-4 5.12×10-4 001.0045706.87×10-6 1.00456Adhamiya 3.49×10-4 3.49×10-4 000.6849304.68×10-6 0.68493Adhamiya 8.14×10-4 8.14×10-4 001.5981801.09×10-5 1.59817Mansour 6.51×10-4 6.51×10-4 001.2785408.74×10-6 1.27853Mansour 4.19×10-4 4.19×10-4 000.8219305.62×10-6 0.82192Mansour 1.07×10-3 1.07×10-3 002.1004601.43×10-5 2.10045Al-Atibaa 3.25×10-4 3.25×10-4 000.6392604.37×10-6 0.63926Saydia 8.14×10-4 8.14×10-4 001.5981801.09×10-5 1.59817Doura 1.41×10-3 1.41×10-3 002.7723501.10×10-5 2.77234WaziriaIndustrial Area Table 16 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for child in air-borne dust samples in Baghdad city air. R(child)(carcinogen)HI(child)(noncarcinogen) District name Locations of samples + + R ) R inh R der R ing + + HI ) HI inh HI der HI ing 1.65×10-3 1.65×10-3 003.2496504.36×10-5 3.24961Bunouk Residential area 7.86×10-4 7.86×10-4 001.5449202.07×10-5 1.54490Adhamiya 5.96×10-4 5.96×10-4 001.1720001.57×10-5 1.17199Adhamiya 4.06×10-4 4.06×10-4 000.7990901.07×10-5 0.79908Adhamiya 9.49×10-4 9.49×10-4 001.8645502.50×10-5 1.86453Mansour 7.59×10-4 7.59×10-4 001.4916402.01×10-5 1.49162Mansour 4.88×10-4 4.88×10-4 000.9589101.28×10-5 0.95890Mansour 1.24×10-3 1.24×10-3 002.4505603.29×10-5 2.45053Al-Atibaa 3.79×10-4 3.79×10-4 000.7458201.01×10-5 0.74581Saydia 9.49×10-4 9.49×10-4 001.8645502.50×10-5 1.86453Doura 1.64×10-3 1.64×10-3 003.23439003.23439WaziriaIndustrial area
  • 12. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 247 editor@iaeme.com Table 17 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for adults in streets-dust samples in Baghdad city air. R(adult)(carcinogen)HI(adult)(noncarcinogen)District name Locations of samples + + R ) R inh R der R ing + + HI ) H I inh HI der HI ing 9.77×10-4 9.77×10-4 001.9178101.31×10-5 1.91780Shaab Residentia l area 1.18×10-3 1.18×10-3 002.3287701.59×10-5 2.32876Al-Sadir 1.09×10-3 1.09×10-3 002.1461201.46×10-5 2.14611Washash 8.84×10-4 8.84×10-4 001.7351601.18×10-5 1.73515Mansour 5.58×10-4 5.58×10-4 001.0958907.49×10-6 1.09589Al-Atibaa 1.57×10-3 1.57×10-3 003.0985001.22×10-5 3.09849Waziria Industrial area 3.50×10-3 3.50×10-3 006.8819502.72×10-5 6.88193Shaikh Umar 2.82×10-3 2.82×10-3 005.5447002.19×10-5 5.54468Shaikh Maarouf Table 18 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for selected sites for child in streets-dust samples in Baghdad city air. R(child)(carcinogen)HI(child)(noncarcinogen)District name Locations of samples + + R ) R inh R der R ing + + HI ) H I inh HI der HI ing 1.13×10-3 1.13×10-3 002.2374703.01×10-5 2.23744Shaab Residentia l area 1.38×10-3 1.38×10-3 002.7169203.65×10-5 2.71689Al-Sadir 1.27×10-3 1.27×10-3 002.5038303.36×10-5 2.50380Washash 1.03×10-3 1.03×10-3 002.0243702.72×10-5 2.02435Mansour 6.51×10-4 6.51×10-4 001.2785401.71×10-5 1.27853Al-Atibaa 1.84×10-3 1.84×10-3 003.61491003.61491Waziria Industrial area 4.08×10-3 4.08×10-3 008.02891008.02891Shaikh Umar 3.29×10-3 3.29×10-3 006.46879006.46879Shaikh Maarouf 6.3. Comprise Iraq soil Media with World Soil Table 19 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in Iraq Soil (Baghdad city). Contamin ant HI (adult) (noncarcinogen) R (adult) (carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 1.54×10-3 5.90×10-4 0 2.13×10-3 0 0 0 0 Zinc 3.24×10-4 1.24×10-4 0 4.48×10-4 0 0 0 0 Nickle 5.78×10-3 2.21×10-3 0 7.99×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.02713 0.01039 0 0.03752 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.04808 ∑∑ + + R ) 0
  • 13. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 248 editor@iaeme.com Table 20 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in Iraq Soil (Baghdad city). Contamina nt HI (child) (noncarcinogen) R (child) (carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.01440 0.05441 0 0.06881 0 0 0 0 Zinc 3.02×10-3 0.01143 0 0.01445 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.05402 0.20416 0 0.25818 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.25328 0.95718 0 1.21046 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 1.5519 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 21 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in USA Soil. Contamin ant HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.03428 0.01313 0 0.04741 0 0 0 0 Zinc 0.01047 4.01×10-3 0 0.01448 0 0 0 0 Nickle 3.71×10-3 1.42×10-3 0 5.13×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.11428 0.04376 0 0.15804 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.22506 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 22 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in USA Soil. Contamina nt HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.32 1.20928 0 1.52928 0 0 0 0 Zinc 0.09778 0.36950 0 0.46728 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.03467 0.13100 0 0.16567 0 0 0 0 Lead 1.06667 4.03094 0 5.09761 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 7.25984 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 23 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in England Soil. Contamin ant HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium --- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- Zinc 0.01428 5.47×10-3 0 0.01975 0 0 0 0 Nickle 5.71×10-3 2.18×10-3 0 7.89×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.16667 0.06382 0 0.23049 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.25813 ∑∑ + + R ) 0
  • 14. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 249 editor@iaeme.com Table 24 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in England Soil. Contamina nt HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium --- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- Zinc 0.13333 0.50386 0 0.63719 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.05333 0.20154 0 0.25487 0 0 0 0 Lead 1.55556 5.87846 0 7.43402 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 8.32608 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 25 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Adult, Average Heavy Metals in Sweden Soil. Contamin ant HI(adult)(noncarcinogen) R(adult)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.01914 7.33×10-3 0 0.02647 0 0 0 0 Zinc 7.46×10-3 2.85×10-3 0 0.01031 0 0 0 0 Nickle 3.64×10-3 1.39×10-3 0 5.03×10-3 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.04285 0.01641 0 0.05926 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 0.10107 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 Table 26 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index and Carcinogen Risk for Child, Average Heavy Metals in Sweden Soil. Contamina nt HI(child)(noncarcinogen) R(child)(carcinogen) HIing HIder HI inh + + HI ) R ing R der R inh + + R ) Cadmium 0.17867 0.67518 0 0.85385 0 0 0 0 Zinc 0.06964 0.26318 0 0.33282 0 0 0 0 Nickle 0.034 0.12848 0 0.16248 0 0 0 0 Lead 0.4 1.51160 0 1.9116 0 0 0 0 ∑∑ + + HI 3.26075 ∑∑ + + R ) 0 7. DISCUSSION This study which contained Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) that estimating the amount and seriousness of released pollutants. Which used in directories of environment for large filed (oral exposure of inhabitants) in the Baghdad city indicated that the non-carcinogenic risk tends to become significant for children and adults with exposure duration of 6yrs and 30yrs respectively. 1- Air media in Baghdad city was high polluted by lead, especially at industrial. Therefore inhalation intake and risk were very high which may cause cancer or other diseases related to lead poisoning. 2- For soil media, noncarcinogen HI resulted from ingestion of soil was insignificant but the cumulative non-carcinogenic risk resulted from dermal contact tends to become significant , mainly
  • 15. Potential Health Risk Assessment for Soil and Air Heavy Metal Contamination in Baghdad City http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 250 editor@iaeme.com for children , since it approaches unacceptable values and there was no particularly dangerous single heavy metal , but their cumulative effect, , is for concern. 3-From the comparison between the results of the Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Adult and Child [HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in Baghdad city soil with World soil media as shown in Fig [1&2], it was noticed that there were significant difference between the results in Baghdad city soil with World soil.USA and England were high polluted by lead. therefore [ingestion intake and dermal intake]risk were very high which may cause cancer or other diseases related to lead poisoning. Figure 1 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Adult [HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in World Soil Media. Figure 2 Noncarcinogen Hazard Index Child [HIing+HIder+HIinh] for Heavy Metal in World Soil Media. 8. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Author is grateful to Prof. Dr. Mohammad Abed Muslim Al-Tufaily for the assistance given me to complete the work study involved in writing this paper. HIing+HIder Baghdad USA England Sweden HIing+HIder Baghdad USA England Sweden
  • 16. Dr. Nabaa Shakir Hadi http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 251 editor@iaeme.com REFERENCES [1] Abdul Hameed M. J. Al Obaidy, Athmar A. M. Al Mashhadi, "Heavy Metal Contaminations in Urban Soil within Baghdad City, Iraq", Journal of Environmental Protection, Vol.4, (2013), pp.72- 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2013. 41008. [2] Khaldoun S. Al-Bassam*, Nour N. Abdul Karim** and Muthana A. Al-Umar, "A Survey of Dust- Borne Lead Concentration in Baghdad City", Iraqi Bulletin of Geology and Mining, Vol.5, No.2, (2009), p 1- 12. [3] Mark G. R., “Risk Assessment for Environmental Health ", John Wiley & sons, (2007). [4] Maitham A. Sultan, "Evaluation of Soil pollution by heavy metals in Baghdad city using GIS" , The 1st International Applied Geological Congress, Department of Geology, Islamic Azad University – Mashad Branch, Iran, 26-28 April (2010). [5] Ortolano. L., “Environmental Regulation and Impact Assessment”, John Wiley & Sonc, Inc, (1997). [6] “Physical Planning Directorate in Babylon Governorate”(2006). [7] Richard J. Watts, “Hazardous Wastes”, department of Civil and Environmental engineering, Washington state university, copy by John Wiley & Sons, (1997). [8] Rodriguez R. ・Grant R. L., “Handbook of Environmental Chemistry Vol. 5, Part F,” Springer - Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, (2005). [9] Sonnemann, G, “Integrated Life-Cycle and Risk Assessment For Industrial Processes”, Lewis Publishers, (2004). [10] Susan J. M., “Principles of Environmental Engineering and Science”, McGraw Hill, New York, (2004). [11] USEPA, "Exposure Factor Handbook", (1997). [12] USEPA, “Dermal Exposure Assessment: Principal and Applications”, EPA/600/8-91/011B, (1992). [13] USEPA. Regional Screening Level Table (RSL) for Chemical Contaminants at Superfund Sites; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, USA, (2011). [14] USEPA, “Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part A)”, (EPA/540/1-89/002), (1989). [15] Bader A. Hakami, Gold Mines and Impact of Heavy Metals on the Environment. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 6(2), 2015, pp. 70–80.