The Mobile competitive landscape is changing, This presentation is an effort to try to understand how openness and open source in particular is changing the mobile competitive landscape.

1. Overview of the open mobile landscape
Open Nordic Mobile, Skien, June 19, 2008
Hilde Lovett & Bjørn Remseth, iLabs project, Telenor Research & Innovation

2. mobile handsets & mobile internet
• Facts and expectations
– 3.6 B mobile phones in use in the world
– 1 B new mobile users expected over next 2 years
in emerging markets
– 32 mobile phones sold per second (4 human
births per second)
• The future mobile Internet takes shape
– superior user experience and rich functionality
– easier to develop services and applications
– variety of services and applications
– open service innovation
– large volume killer app’s as well as smaller niches
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3. Revenues
Mobile Competitive Arena US$13,87 BN
Computers &
Electronics
US$24.01 BN
US$ 17,8 BN
US$ 79,78 BN
• Players coming from Mobile
different competitive Mobile Competitive Mobile
arenas ... Handsets Arena operators
• Want to bring their
US$ 16.59 BN
successes to the new
mobile competitive arena
– services Internet
Software
– business models services
– ways of working
– innovation & collaboration • Need to preserve and build strength
models
– stimulate growth and innovation
– reduce cost
We see that open source is a key factor
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4. The emerging long-tail of mobile services
iPhone and Android
are setting the scene
# users for the next wave of
mobile innovations
# services
4

5. A simple modelling of the dynamics in the mobile arena
complementary services
competition
innovation & growth enablers
(terminals and servers)
bilateral co-operation core services
5

6. A simple model of mobile terminals
widgets
mobile web-based
applications
downloadable
applications
harmonisation layer
operating system

7. Google in the competitive arena
complementary services
all services using
Google enablers
and services
competition
innovation & growth enablers
cash prize competition
summer of code
bilateral co-operation
core services
search
7

8. Mobile Service Development with Google
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
8
operating system

9. Nokia in the competitive arena
complementary services
competition
innovation & growth enablers
bilateral co-operation
core services
9

10. Mobile Service Development
with Nokia
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
NOKIA S40
10
mobile terminal operating system

11. Apple in the competitive arena
complementary services
phone
applications
(authorised and
unauthorised)
competition
innovation & growth enablers
Cash prize competition
Venture capital
Server HW/SW
Apple account
bilateral co-operation
core services
11

12. Mobile Service Development with Apple
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
Cocoa harmonisation layer
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operating system

13. Sun in the competitive arena
complementary services
software
sells hardware
competition
innovation & growth enablers
Java.net
JavaOne conference
JCP Java
community Process
bilateral co-operation
core services
13

14. Mobile Service Development with Sun
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
FX mobile
mobile terminal operating system

15. Gnu / Linux in the competitive arena
complementary services
Gnu software
enables even
more software
competition
innovation & growth enablers
bilateral co-operation
core services
15

16. Mobile Service Development with GNU / Linux
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
mobile terminal operating system

17. Patterns in the mobile arena
complementary services
competition
fast feedback loops
with lead-users
clouded services and open apis
coopetition innovation & growth enablers
open standards and
open source emerging
bilateral co-operation core services
17

18. Innovation through complementary services
• Large growth will (also) come from small, new innovators
– some create value and utility for low volume niches
– some have a potential to grow into high volume “killer applications”
• Attracting long-tail players, creating joint value, can be the recipe for sustainable
growth
– helping them start
– helping them disseminate and distribute
– helping them grow
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19. There is still a large degree of
terminal fragmentation
... but a lot of applications widget platforms
on many types of terminal
mobile web-based applications
will open source help?
Cocoa
harmonisation layer
NOKIA S40
FX mobile operating system
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20. Conclusions
• Community based collaboration emerging
• Community based involvement of lead/end-users
emerging
• Still fragmentation on handsets - but still a lot of services
across platforms
• Open source is a central driver for all these issues
• Thank you for your attention