The mythical mobile app developer (Michael Vakulenko, Strategy Director, VisionMobile)


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Mobile VAS & Apps Conference, 2012, Sankt Petersburg

Russian and global mobile VAS market trends

The mythical mobile app developer (Michael Vakulenko, Strategy Director, VisionMobile)

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The mythical mobile app developer (Michael Vakulenko, Strategy Director, VisionMobile)

  1. 1. VisionMobile The Mythical App Developer Mobile VAS Conference Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 1
  2. 2. VisionMobile Distilling market noise into market sense Developer Economics Telco Economics Trends watch the de-facto research hub for the app New economic thinking for managing Tracking app and developer trends economy disruption and reinventing the Telco Mobile Market Sonar Innovation a quarterly service Developer Economics using big data to research workshop predict app economy reports: how Internet trends measuring business models developer are impacting sentiment on telecoms platforms, regions, revenues and developer tools Mobile Insider Mobile Mobile Insider is Megatrends a monthly workshop Developer publication that Public workshops outreach & examines the on the stage of the segmentation: most important mobile ecosystem understand, trends in mobile segment and effectively reach developers Top-100 analyst blog 4,000+ subscribers 20,000+ monthly uniques App ecosystems: Research and analysis on the state of the app economy Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 2
  3. 3. Trusted by industry brands from an established analyst company Clients selected clients 2009-2012 selected VisionMobile clients 2008-2012 Page 4 Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 3
  4. 4. Apps is just the tip of the iceberg Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 4
  5. 5. The new rules of the game in mobile telco need new skills to compete in the new market environment old rules new rules share of needs, attention & wallet 4 apps 700,000+ apps (voice, text, contacts, camera) (encompassing all user needs) service telco platforms distribution basis of reliability & scale choice & flexibility competition of networks of services business models proven & predictable new & unpredictable Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 5
  6. 6. Duopoly in smartphone platforms iOS and Android dominate shipments and developer mindshare 100K apps Apple dominates high-end 700K apps segment 700K apps Android takes the rest Source: Business Insider Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 6
  7. 7. Duopoly in smartphone shipments two players dominate shipments and profits – both have advantage of tailored value-chain 2 players dominate smartphone shipments 8 OEMs with more than 2% market share Source: Asymco Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 7
  8. 8. The 2nd wave of disruption in the handset market hardware becomes distribution vehicle for digital services and e-commerce traditional model emerging model hardware = profits hardware = distribution Take most profits Lose money or break-even No Name Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 8
  9. 9. Apps are key competitive advantage for platforms satisfy wide spectrum of needs and use cases 700,000 apps 700,000 apps Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 9
  10. 10. Platforms win by locking users to developers drive exponential growth and lock-in of users and developers users are locked by habits Platform Developers are locked represented by apps by skills and experience app store locks developers to users Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 10
  11. 11. Developers are key resource for platforms key challenge is sorting through the noise plethora of dev tools telecom overlays Developer mindshare leaders chipset makers telco API and app stores competing platforms handset makers Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 11
  12. 12. Free research reports on app economy and developer ecosystem help developers build a successful app business Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 12
  13. 13. Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 13
  14. 14. Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 14
  15. 15. VisionMobile developer segmentation model What is a developer? Developers differ greatly in platform & API decisions Motivations & drivers Hobbyists Fun and coolness Explorers Opportunity and ancillary income Hunters (pro developers) Profits from apps Guns-for-hire Probability of winning a project Brands and verticals Brand affinity and user engagement Digital content publishers Access to large addressable market Venture-backed startups Attracting investment and achieving exit Corporate IT De-risking and information security15Page 15 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  16. 16. User reach trumps monetisation for developers of all platforms except BlackBerry user reach monetisation Ranking of developer’s goal by platform %% on 7 major platforms (n = 1,431) Source: VisionMobile, based on data from Developer Economics 2012 survey Copyright VisionMobile 201216Page 16
  17. 17. Developing for clients or an employer pays better average app/month revenue by employment type (n=995) Source: VisionMobile, Developer Economics 2012 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 17
  18. 18. Finance & real-estate generate highest revenues average revenue per app/month by client industry (n=665) Source: VisionMobile, Developer Economics 2012 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 18
  19. 19. Hard work pays more - rewards vary by platform average revenue per app/month by development time (n=695) Source: VisionMobile, Developer Economics 2012 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 19
  20. 20. Apps developed in the US pay better average revenue per app/month by country (n=384) Source: VisionMobile, Developer Economics 2012 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 20
  21. 21. Developer Economics 2013 (January 2013) 2,840+ Developer tools & services responses Ad networks Backend-as-a-service Total responses 3,460 Bug tracking Cross-platform tools Cross-promotion networks User analytics Voice services 20+ marketing Translation in 6 partners languages Marketing and Regional French, German, Korean, partners from across the globe Portuguese, Russian, Spanish Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 21
  22. 22. Developer Journey methodology Maps full spectrum of issues facing app developers, from app conception to user support -  concept design -  developer registration & certification -  curation -  feature design -  app signing & certification - pricing, bundles -  APIs available -  app submission - advertising & promos -  prototyping tools - regional testing -  cross-app promos -  audience targeting - beta testing with end users -  app marketing & PR -  platform selection - localisation frameworks -  app merchandising - conferences & competitions - packaging and SKU management application develop & market distributiion & retailing & monetisation in-use planning debug readiness discovery - platform APIs -  app publishing - sales analytics - IDEs, SDKs, samples & docs -  distribution agreements - usage analytics -  UI creation tools -  billing providers -  runtime profiling -  content creation tools -  in-app advertising - user ratings mgmt - debugging & profiling tools -  paid apps - user support -  forums, sites and tech support -  virtual goods - app updates -  test frameworks - revenue share - privacy compliance - porting tools -  payment settlement22Page 22 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  23. 23. Usage of tools vary by platforms Use of services and tools by primary platform (n=2,898) Services(&(Tools(for(developers((n=2,898)( 50%$ 46%$ 43%$ 39%$ 38%$ 40%$ 34%$ 31%$ 28%$ 29%$ 30%$ 27%$ 25%$ 25%$ 22%$ 21%$ 20%$ 19%$ 21%$ 20%$ 18%$ 16%$ 15%$ 15%$ 15%$ 15%$ 13%$ 9%$ 9%$ 9%$9%$ 10%$ 8%$7%$ 6%$ 6%$ 7%$ 5%$ 5%$ 4%$ 0%$ Ad$networks$ User$analy;cs$ Cross$pla?orm$tools$ Bug$tracking$services$ BackFend$as$a$Service$ Cross$promo;on$ Voice$services$ networks$ Android$ BlackBerry$ HTML$ iOS$ Windows$Phone$ Source: VisionMobile, Developer Economics 2013 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 23
  24. 24. {Beta} “TripAdvisor” for building a successful app business Which platform? Developer tools How to reach more users? Budget planning How to reduce costs? How to engage them? Revenue expectations How to improve time-to- How to monetize your users Which business model? market? more effectively? Which region/market? Lean mobile development24 24Page Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  25. 25. Thanks for listening! Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Michael Vakulenko | Strategy Director | +44 2033 844166 Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 25 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  26. 26. want more? “Mobile Innovation Economics” learn the rules of ecosystem game and asymmetric competition “Telco Innovation Toolbox” economic and strategy tools for rethinking telco business Copyright VisionMobile 2012Page 26