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5 a vanlatesteijn


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5 a vanlatesteijn

  1. 1. Are FDI’s by Arab Countriesreally needed for food security?Dr. Henk C. van Latesteijn
  2. 2. The background
  3. 3. Global food requirements in 2050Countries Type of growth ‘Scenarios’ Biomass (109 tons GE) Current 7Poor Population More food growth 2050: food and feed 12Middle- Economic More feedincome growth and feedstock 2050: + 10% of global 17 energy supplyRich Biobased More economy feedstock 2050: + all citizens a 23 European diet GE = Grain Equivalents
  4. 4. Food security = risk management Global trade 1 Optimize comparative advantages FDI’s 2 Expand production base 3 Metropolitan agriculture Production and access in urban areas 4 Yield gap closure Unlock nature’s potential in rural regions
  5. 5. Global trade: vegetables 1 exports imports Source:
  6. 6. Global trade: dairy 1 exports imports Source:
  7. 7. Global FDI’s in Agriculture 2Source: UNCTAD, 2009
  8. 8. Metropolitan agriculture 3 Sustainable COMMERCIAL Intensification AGRICULTURE Sustainable Re-valuation METROPOLITAN Sustainable AGRICULTURE Diversification ORGANIC & ENVIRONMENTA URBAN L AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE
  9. 9. Metropolitan agriculture and food security 3 Production Access
  10. 10. Improve local productivity 4YIELD GAPCLOSURESource: Van Ittersum & Rabbinge, 1997
  11. 11. Why technical potentials are not easily realised 4 Producers maximize profit, not yield Less favoured areas have higher input- output price ratios Closing yield gaps requires research effort Depletion of fossil fuels and phosphate rock raises input prices Supply becomes tight long before technical potentials have been exhausted
  12. 12. Global Yield Gap Atlas 4Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)
  13. 13. Lacking Data 4Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)
  14. 14. Conclusions Food security asks for production increase Different pathways are available Food security = risk management Don’t put all your eggs in one basket Invest in different options
  15. 15. Thank you