Launch of IFPRI Food Policy ReportBeyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for Food Security and Poverty Reduction Presenter: Clemens Breisinger Co-authors: Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai and Bingxin Yu IFPRI-UN-ESCWA Conference “Food Secure Arab World” Beirut, February 6-7, 2012
• We thank IFAD for supporting this research and the many people who made the report possible• Available at www.ifpri.org in Arabic and English
In a data-scarce Arab world, the reportsuggests answers to three key questions based on rigorous economic analysis:1. Poverty puzzle: did the social indicators really improve as suggested by official numbers?2. Food security question: how can food security be measured and what is the state in the Arab World3. Growth puzzle: which policies and investments are key for achieving a food secure Arab World without poverty?This presentation focuses on points 2 and 3 (policies)
Risk of food insecurity (at the micro level) Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
Risk of food insecurity (at the macro level) Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
Risk of food insecurity in Arab World (plus Iran and Turkey) Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
Which policies and investments can improve food security?1. ‘Child health production function’: ������������ = ������(������������ , ������������ , ������������ ) H = health status, I = health inputs, E = health environment factors, ψ = genetic health endowment of child k2. Reduced-form child nutrition model: ������������ = ������(������������ , …) N = nutritional status, Y = household income => Income elasticity wrt. nutritional status: ������������������ ������������������ ������������������������������ ������������ = = , approx.: ������������������������������ = ������������ ������������������������������ ������������ ������������ ������������������������������3. Cross-country nutrition model (in first differences): ������������������������������ = ������������ ������������������������������ N = child nutrition situation, Y = national income of country i4. Decomposition of growth by sectors: ������������������������������ = ������(������������������ ������������������ ������������������������������������ ) η = sector participation component, s = sector share component of sector x (Ag, non-Ag; Ag, Ma, In, Se value added)5. Regression model (based on time series data): Δ������������������ = ������0 + ������Δ������������������������������ + ������������������������−1 + ������������������ + ������������������ N = prevalence of child undernutrition, Y = GDP per capita, t = time period, Z = trend effects
Economic growth has to become more pro- poor in Arab countries, also in agriculture Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.***, **, * statistically significant at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.
One reason why agriculture is not as pro-poor in Arab countries is because it’s no longer the major source of income for the poor
Selected messages for a food secure Arab world without poverty• Risk of food insecurity is high in the Arab World, with large variation between countries and macro- and household level food insecurity• For countries with household level food insecurity, focus on supporting job creating growth for the poor• For countries with macro-level food insecurity, encourage exports to finance food imports and agriculture in countries with potentialWhile these messages apply for many Arab countries, it isclear that strategies and investments have to be country-owned and adopted to the country and sub-national levels.