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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 1. Sir Gordon Conway: What we know and what we need to know


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Presentation hold by Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development, Imperial College London, as part of the first panel of the 30th edition of the Brussels Briefing on “Agricultural resilience in the face of crisis and shocks", organized by CTA in collaboration with the ACP Secretariat, the EC/DEVCO, Concord, and IFPRI on 4th March 2013.
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30thBrussels Briefing on Agricultural Resilience- 1. Sir Gordon Conway: What we know and what we need to know

  1. 1. Brussels Briefing n. 30Agricultural Resilience in the Face of Crises and Shocks 4th March 2013 http://brusselsbriefings.netAgricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Imperial College London
  2. 2. Agricultural resilience -- what do weknow and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College, London European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013
  3. 3.  Rising sea and land temperatures Three Drivers:  Tropical convection  The Monsoons  El Niño – La Niña Oscillation
  4. 4. El Niño La Niña
  5. 5. Gradual build-up of adverse events• Pest and disease attack• Land degradation• Growing pollution• Increasing temperatures• Rising sea levels• Greater or lesser rainfall• Growing indebtedness
  6. 6. UNDP Human Development Report, 2006
  7. 7. Average Annual Max Temp > 300C By 2050Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
  8. 8. Usually dramatic, largely unexpected events• Locust outbreaks• Disease outbreaks• Sudden floods• Major drought• Cyclones• Earthquakes• Tsunamis
  9. 9. Hansen et al, 2012, NASA
  10. 10. Russia Severe heatwave in 2010 Doubled Moscow’s death rate 30% of grain crops lost to burningPakistan Worst floods in 80 years Killed over 1600 people Submerged 1/5th of the country, including 14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land
  11. 11.  Increased yields or production  On the same amount of land  With less water  Less fertilisers  Less pesticides  Lower emissions of Greenhouse GasesIncreased natural capitaland environmental services Greater resilience
  12. 12.  Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices e.g.  Agroforestry  Integrated Pest  Management  Organic farming
  13. 13.  Plants more nutritious  carbohydrate and protein  micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) Plants more resilient to  pests and diseases  climate change Plants more efficient at  converting sunlight to food  taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere  using water
  14. 14.  $500 million losses a year in Uganda Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene Successfully transferred to bananas In Ugandan field trials Entirely government funded
  15. 15.  Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress Plants rapidly recover No yield penalty when stress free In African field trials
  16. 16. National trade Rural Economy Seed Co Connectivity Fertiliser Co Local trader Agrodealer Farm Household in the local community Banks forRegional trade microcredit Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)
  17. 17. Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwiseEduardo Mondlane
  18. 18. Thank YouConway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feed the world?’ Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: Contact: