Scenario Planning

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  • 93 09/15/98 11 25
  • Scenario Planning

    1. 1. learnppt.comPowerPoint Diagram PackScenario Planning Axes of UncertaintyScenario Planning is an integral part of the Scenario A Scenario BStrategic Planning Process. This documentdescribes a robust 9-phase process for Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertaintyproper scenario planning analysis and Scenario C Scenario Dshows how to integrate it into a Scenario Axes ofPlanning Workshop environment. Uncertainty Check out our site for all your PowerPoint needs! • http://learnppt.com – Find our ebook on creating effective and professional presentations. Covers basic to advanced concepts, including storyboarding, diagramming, and the Consulting Presentation Framework. • http://learnppt.com/powerpoint -- Shop our catalog of Diagram Packs. We try to add more Packs monthly. All of our diagrams are professionally designed by ex-management consultants from top firms.
    2. 2. Contents • Overview 4 • Scenario Planning Process 6 - Process Overview 7 - 9 Phases 8 • Scenario Planning Workshop 21 - Facilitation Tips 22 - Suggested Layouts 24learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 2
    3. 3. Scenario Planning is a method used in strategic planning to helpbusiness think through and make long-term plansScenario Planning Overview Scenario Planning—also called Scenario Thinking or Scenario Analysis—is a method used in the strategic planning process to help businesses make flexible long-term plans. This document describes a 9-phase process for Scenario Planning, and shows how to apply this process to a workshop environment. Many organizations conduct off-site Scenario Planning Workshops as part their annual strategy development process. Axes of Uncertainty Scenario A Scenario B Axes of Axes of Uncertainty Uncertainty THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and Scenario C Scenario D download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ Axes of Uncertaintylearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 3
    4. 4. Identify Rank GeneratePhase 5: Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationsGenerate plausible combinations of outcomesPhase 5 – Overview KEY ACTIVITIES EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES  Create strawman models for each scenario by selecting internally consistent combinations of  Facilitated group discussion outcomes for critical uncertainties – Check for and discuss possible conflicts among  Breakout groups outcomes selected – Where the most important critical uncertainties are evident, make sure to include all identified outcomes in the selected scenarios – Target to create around 4 scenarios—don’t create too many scenarios! – Ensure the scenarios you have created are distinctly different THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW TIP Don’t try to over-think the process of You can preview the full PowerPoint document and generate every possible outcome—use sound judgment to evaluate whether the download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ scenarios selected represent the broad range of possible future stateslearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 4
    5. 5. Identify Rank GenerateUse the top 2 uncertainties to Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationscreate a scenario map for the initial 4 scenarios to work onPhase 5 – Scenario Map Example Harsh Regulatory Environment • In this example, the top 2 uncertainties selected are “Regulatory Environment” and Scenario A Scenario B “Brand Premium” • The underlying assumption in this exercise is that by defining the extreme corners of any given environment, one does Brand Brand explore the correlation amongPremium Premium all relevant uncertainties—this Erodes Maintains implies that reality will be somewhere in the middle • Defining scenarios is not meant to describe the most likely case THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW —it purely explores uncertainty Scenario C Scenario D correlation and leads to You can preview the full PowerPoint document and states to better potential future download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ path forward risks understand associated with any Liberal Regulatory Environmentlearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 5
    6. 6. Identify Rank GenerateUse the top 2 uncertainties to Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationscreate a scenario map for the initial 4 scenarios to work onPhase 5 – Scenario Map Example Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D2 PRIMARY AXES OF UNCERTAINTIES Regulatory environment Harsh Harsh Liberal Liberal These values defined by the Scenario Map Brand premium Erodes Maintains Erodes Maintains (from previous slide)REMAINING AXES OF UNCERTAINTIES Price of oil Increases Drops Increase Drops Technology breakthrough Yes Yes No Yes Threat of digitization High Low High High … THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW … … … … … You can preview the full PowerPoint document and … … … … download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ … … … … …learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 6
    7. 7. Identify Rank GeneratePhase 6: Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationsOutline the emerging scenariosPhase 6 – Overview KEY ACTIVITIES EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES  Develop a detailed qualitative description of future state envisaged under each scenario  Facilitated group discussion  Complete the outcome matrix for other critical uncertainties  Breakout groups  Describe the outcomes of critical uncertainties for each scenario in headlines  Name the scenario Pick a short, catchy label THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 7
    8. 8. Identify Rank GeneratePhase 7: Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationsCheck scenarios for robustnessPhase 7 – Overview KEY ACTIVITIES EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES  Test the stability of the end state described  Facilitated group discussion – Will stakeholders in the industry intervene to prevent this end state from occurring?  Test the relevance of the scenarios described  Breakout group presentations – Do the outcomes relate to the decisions facing the business?  Validation with external industry reports  Test the internal consistency of the scenarios – What contradictions do the scenarios contain?  Test whether the scenarios are distinct and unique – Try to avoid developing scenarios that are variations of the same theme THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 8
    9. 9. Identify Rank GeneratePhase 8: Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationsCreate detailed scenario descriptionsPhase 8 – Overview KEY ACTIVITIES EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES  Develop a detailed storyline for each scenario  Facilitated group discussion  Highlight the high-level implications for strategy under each scenario  Breakout groups – Strategies include: strategies for leadership, competitive strategies for survival – Winners and losers  Validation groups  Describe the indicative key economic parameters Economic parameters are estimates of what the world would be like if a scenario became a reality, in terms of key macro- conceived under each future state economic statistics  Identify the leading indicators and leading contra- • e.g. population size, GDP, exchange rates, inflation indicators that will signal whether this future is starting to emerge Leading indicators inform us on when a particular future state is starting to become a – Is it as important to identify future stats that can be eliminated from strategy development, as IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW THIS it is to reality identify the prevailing state A leading contra-indicator inform us when a You can preview the full PowerPoint document and  Identify the competitive competencies that would be particular scenario be discounted from our future strategies and plans required download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ – Includes key strategic business partnershipslearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 9
    10. 10. Identify Rank GenerateIt is important to document all Define scope of Determine Outline Checked for Describe axes of critical outcome scenarios outcomes scenarios robustness scenarios uncertainties uncertainties combinationsleading (contra-)indicators and economic parametersPhase 8 – Key Indicators Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D KEY INDICATORS … … … … … … … … KEY CONTRA-INDICATORS … … … … … … … … THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ The tracking and monitoring of these indicators will help determine any strategic changes in the future.learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 10
    11. 11. Successful scenario planning workshops are usually conducted offsiteover a 2- or 3-day period with involvement beyond just top managementScenario Planning Workshop – Facilitation Tips • Each breakout group exercise can open up Allow plenty of time for the group to wide ranging debate around deep questions bond and for the discussions provoked which will affect the future of the business • Schedule evening work to create the by the scenarios opportunity for an open-ended discussion Go offsite • It is difficult to engage senior management’s captive attention if they are accessible to deal with current business “crises” • Don’t allow the management to delegate the Be sure to involve the top team … exercise—they oftentimes won’t buy in to scenarios unless they have been through the learning involved in exploring the future … but also consider includingA PARTIAL PREVIEW THIS IS other • Involve people from further down the organization—especially people capable of “expert” resources preview the full PowerPoint document and You can creative, out-of-the-box thinking about the future of the industry download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ • Invite academics, industry experts, regulators, and even partners (e.g. suppliers, alliance) to enrich the breadth of the discussionlearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 11
    12. 12. END OF PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/learnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 12
    13. 13. Read our eBook – How to Become a PowerPoint Guruhttp://learnppt.com/Browse our catalog of PowerPoint Diagram Packshttp://learnppt.com/powerpointJoin our mailing list and receive the Basic Toolkit for free!http://learnppt.com/mailinglistlearnppt.com Questions & feedback? Email me – dave@learnppt.com The diagrams in this pack are to be used by the original buyer only. 13

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