Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Scenario planning 5

1,694 views

Published on

PLI GET presentation May 2010

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

Scenario planning 5

  1. 1. Scenario<br />Planning<br />James C. Galvin, Ed.D.<br />April 20, 2009<br />
  2. 2. Organizations can become paralyzed by turbulence or chaos<br />
  3. 3. You fear your organization may adapt too slowly to unexpected changes<br />
  4. 4. You want to create robust strategies that will weather any storm<br />
  5. 5. Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient<br />
  6. 6. Tyndale House Publishers was a growing company<br />
  7. 7. 20,000 copies<br />
  8. 8. 40,000 copies<br />
  9. 9. 80,000 copies<br />
  10. 10. 350,000 copies<br />
  11. 11. 900,000 copies<br />
  12. 12. 1,400,000 copies<br />
  13. 13. 1,800,000 copies<br />
  14. 14. 2,400,000 copies<br />
  15. 15. What’s going to happen next?<br />
  16. 16. Scenario planning is a way to plan when facing critical uncertainties<br />
  17. 17. Scenario planning is not…<br />
  18. 18. Rapid-cycle scenario planning is a high-yield six-step process<br />
  19. 19. Step 1: Determine your focus<br />
  20. 20. Step 2: Identify driving forces<br />
  21. 21. Step 3: Surface questions that matter<br />
  22. 22. Step 4: Explore alternative scenarios<br />
  23. 23. Step 5: Identify strategic priorities<br />
  24. 24. Step 6: Develop your action plan<br />
  25. 25. Tyndale House still had four titles remaining in the series<br />
  26. 26. Tyndale House strategic focus<br />How should we respond to this unprecedented growth?<br />
  27. 27. Tyndale House driving forces<br />Lack of trained staff in all areas<br />Distribution capacity squeezed<br />Less ability for sales reps to give attention to individual products<br />New marketing channels and emerging opportunities<br />Stewardship of capital<br />Pressure to compromise values<br />Pressure from agents to up ante<br />Decline of established channels (CBA, ABA, chains, independents)<br />Author expectations going up<br />More competition for good authors<br />Harder to maximize mid-size properties<br />Consumers turning to other media<br />Shrinking labor pool<br />Channels enforcing legislative regulations<br />Decline of reading/literacy<br />Environmental concerns<br />Global marketplace<br />Core market becoming more postmodern<br />
  28. 28. Continued…<br />Spiritual needs intensifying, interest in spiritual things increasing<br />New, younger market<br />Non-English speaking demographics<br />Pressure to have bigger projects and addiction to big releases<br />Secular markets opening up<br />Rise of nontraditional competitors<br />New, small publishers emerging<br />Internet sales increasing<br />Rise of E-books<br />Pressure to establish brand quickly and have quick pay back<br />Need for brand managers to leverage our brands<br />Strategic alliances with others who own strong brands<br />Lack of time for new lines<br />Reduction of shelf life of new bibles<br />More intense competition<br />Need for evangelism<br />Crowded marketplace<br />Consumers wanting to design their own Bibles<br />
  29. 29. Tyndale House questions that matter<br />Will general interest in spiritual things go up or down?<br />Will bookstores struggle or thrive?<br />Big box stores vs. bookstores<br />CBA vs. ABA<br />Christian chains vs. Independents<br />
  30. 30. Tyndale House scenario logic<br />
  31. 31. Brand X scenario logic<br />
  32. 32. ACSI scenario logic<br />
  33. 33. G&A scenario logic<br />
  34. 34. G&A scenarios<br />
  35. 35. Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient<br />
  36. 36. Everyone in the organization will feel more confident about your future<br />
  37. 37. G&A<br />www.galvinandassociates.com<br />

×