Scenario planning 5

Scenario,[object Object],Planning,[object Object],James C. Galvin, Ed.D.,[object Object],April 20, 2009,[object Object]

Organizations can become paralyzed by turbulence or chaos,[object Object]

You fear your organization may adapt too slowly to unexpected changes,[object Object]

You want to create robust strategies that will weather any storm,[object Object]

Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient,[object Object]

Tyndale House Publishers was a growing company,[object Object]

350,000 copies,[object Object]

900,000 copies,[object Object]

1,400,000 copies,[object Object]

What’s going to happen next?,[object Object]

Scenario planning is a way to plan when facing critical uncertainties,[object Object]

Scenario planning is not…,[object Object]

Rapid-cycle scenario planning is a high-yield six-step process,[object Object]

Step 1: Determine your focus,[object Object]

Step 2: Identify driving forces,[object Object]

Step 3: Surface questions that matter,[object Object]

Step 4: Explore alternative scenarios,[object Object]

Step 5: Identify strategic priorities,[object Object]

Step 6: Develop your action plan,[object Object]

Tyndale House still had four titles remaining in the series,[object Object]

Tyndale House strategic focus,[object Object],How should we respond to this unprecedented growth?,[object Object]

Tyndale House driving forces,[object Object],Lack of trained staff in all areas,[object Object],Distribution capacity squeezed,[object Object],Less ability for sales reps to give attention to individual products,[object Object],New marketing channels and emerging opportunities,[object Object],Stewardship of capital,[object Object],Pressure to compromise values,[object Object],Pressure from agents to up ante,[object Object],Decline of established channels (CBA, ABA, chains, independents),[object Object],Author expectations going up,[object Object],More competition for good authors,[object Object],Harder to maximize mid-size properties,[object Object],Consumers turning to other media,[object Object],Shrinking labor pool,[object Object],Channels enforcing legislative regulations,[object Object],Decline of reading/literacy,[object Object],Environmental concerns,[object Object],Global marketplace,[object Object],Core market becoming more postmodern,[object Object]

Continued…,[object Object],Spiritual needs intensifying, interest in spiritual things increasing,[object Object],New, younger market,[object Object],Non-English speaking demographics,[object Object],Pressure to have bigger projects and addiction to big releases,[object Object],Secular markets opening up,[object Object],Rise of nontraditional competitors,[object Object],New, small publishers emerging,[object Object],Internet sales increasing,[object Object],Rise of E-books,[object Object],Pressure to establish brand quickly and have quick pay back,[object Object],Need for brand managers to leverage our brands,[object Object],Strategic alliances with others who own strong brands,[object Object],Lack of time for new lines,[object Object],Reduction of shelf life of new bibles,[object Object],More intense competition,[object Object],Need for evangelism,[object Object],Crowded marketplace,[object Object],Consumers wanting to design their own Bibles,[object Object]

Tyndale House questions that matter,[object Object],Will general interest in spiritual things go up or down?,[object Object],Will bookstores struggle or thrive?,[object Object],Big box stores vs. bookstores,[object Object],CBA vs. ABA,[object Object],Christian chains vs. Independents,[object Object]

Tyndale House scenario logic,[object Object]

Brand X scenario logic,[object Object]

ACSI scenario logic,[object Object]

G&A scenario logic,[object Object]

Everyone in the organization will feel more confident about your future,[object Object]

G&A,[object Object],www.galvinandassociates.com,[object Object]

Scenario planning 5

Scenario planning 5

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Editor's Notes