Scenario Planning


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Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase.

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Scenario Planning

  1. 1. Scenario Planning Drs. H. Dadang Solihin, MA Jakarta, January 29, 2007
  2. 2. Dadang Solihin’s Profile Dadang holds a MA degree ( g g (Economics), University of ) y Colorado, USA. His previous post is Head, Center for Research Data and Information at DPD Secretariat General as well as Deputy Director for Information of Spatial Planning and Land Use Management at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia- Asia Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia. He got various training around the globe included Advanced International globe, Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers Kuala Managers, Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan ( 00 ); a d Regional Development a d Planning Training os a, Japa (2001); and eg o a e e op e and a g a g Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous. You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202 2
  3. 3. Materi• Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Perbedaan antara Scenario, Forecast, dan Visions• Dimensi Scenario Planning g• Perbandingan Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Planning.• Steps in Scenario Planning p g• Tahapan Membuat Skenario• Some Traps to Avoid• Level of Strategic Thinking• Level of Integration• Models for Scenario Project• Scenarios and Uncertainties• Contoh: Daily Newspapers• Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010• Contoh: China Scenarios to 2025• Contoh: India Scenarios to 2025• Contoh: Pandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010• Contoh: Indonesia 2025 3
  4. 4. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• “An internally consistent view of what the future An might turn out to be” (Michael Porter, 1985).• “A tool [for] ordering one’s perceptions about [ ] g p p alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Peter Schwartz, 1991). Schwartz 1991)• “That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the g g g uncertainties of the future” (Gill Ringland, 1998).• “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational d i i f t i hi h i ti l decisions may b be played out” (Paul Shoemaker, 1995). 4
  5. 5. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to explore and learn the future in which a corporate strategy is formed.• It works by describing a small number of k b d ibi ll b f scenarios, by creating stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation. f t th ti• Scenarios are carefully crafted stories about the future embodying a wide variety of ideas and y g y integrating them in a way that is communicable and useful.• Scenarios help us to link uncertainties about the future to the decisions that we must make today (Royal Dutch Shell). 5
  6. 6. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• The scenario planning method works by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future.• It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues that are important to the future of your business.• The goal is to create and craft a number of diverging stories g g g by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces.• The stories, plus the processes to create them, have a dual aim: i – to increase the knowledge of the business environment and – to widen both the receivers and participants perception of possible future events events.• The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but it is also used for enabling group d scuss o about common future. discussion abou a co o uue 6
  7. 7. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase (Lindgren, 2003) SCENARIO generation Strategic PLANNING Time 7
  8. 8. Perbedaan antara Scenario, F S i Forecast, dan Vi i t d Visions Scenario Forecast VisionsPossible, plausible Probable futures Desired futurefuturesUncertainty based Based on certain Value based relationsIllustrate risks Hide risk Hide riskQualitative or Quantitative Usually qualitativequantitativeNeeded to know whatN d dt k h t Needed to dare t N d dt d to Energizing E i iwe decide decideRarely used Daily used Relatively often usedStrong in medium to Strong in short-term Function as triggerslong-term perspective perspective and low for voluntary changeand medium to high g degree of uncertainty g yuncertainties 8
  9. 9. Dimensi Focus: newScenario PlS i Planning i business Business New development/ thinking/ Concept Innovation Paradigm development shift Purpose: Purpose: Strategy/ Scenario Scenario prerequisite action planning planning learning for change Strategy Risk- development/ consciousness/ Evaluation Organizational g Need for development renewal Focus: old business 9
  10. 10. Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Pl S i Planning i Traditional Planning Scenario Planning Partial, “Everything else Overall, “Nothing else beingPerspective being equal” equal” Quantitative, objective Quantitative objective, Qualitative, Qualitative not necessarilyVariables known quantitative, subjective, known or hiddenRelationshipsR l ti hi Statistical, Statistical stable str ct res structures Dynamic, D namic emerging str ct res structures The past explains the The future is the raison d’etreExplanation present of the presentPicture of future Simple and certain Multiple and uncertain Determinist and quantitative Intention analysis, qualitativeMethod models (economic (economic, and stochastic models (cross (cross- mathematical) impact and systems analysis)Attitude to the Passive or adaptive (the Active and creative (the futurefuture future will be) is created) 10
  11. 11. Steps in Scenario Planning1. Identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives.2.2 Comprehensive interviews/workshop about how participants see big shifts coming in society, economics, politics, technology, etc.3. Group ( p (cluster) these views into connected patterns. ) p4. Group draws a list of priorities (the best ideas).5. Create rough pictures of the future, based on these p priorities. Stories and rough scenarios. g6. Add further detail to get impact scenarios. Determine in what way each scenario will affect the corporation.7. Identify early warning signals. Things that are indicative for y y g g g a particular scenario to unfold.8. The scenarios are monitored, evaluated and reviewed. 11
  12. 12. Tahapan Membuat Skenario1. Decide driving forces (istilah lain : drivers / drivers for change)2. Find key uncertainties : drivers yang paling important & unpredictable.3. Group linked drivers into a viable framework (kalau bisa, reduce to yang terpenting/strategic drivers)4. Draft Scenarios (plot menjadi 2-4 scenarios, lalu buat narasinya)5.5 Strategize (lihat strategic challenges susun strategic Options & challenges, identify early warning signs untuk each scenario) Driving Strategic Strategic Strategic Forces Drivers Challenges OptionsFaktor-faktor yang Driving Forces Berbagai arah Action Plan yangdapat memicu yang paling ketidakpastian perlu disusun untukperubahan (Sosial, berpengaruh Strategic mewujudkan Visi gDemografi, , terhadap masa p Drivers yang y g sekaligus meresponEkonomi, Tekno, depan organisasi/ d i i/ dapat d Strategic ChallengesPolitik, Lingkungan, negara. Contoh: menghambat/Values) human capital, menciptakan trade openness, peluang dalam g governance j mewujudkan Visi Vi i 12
  13. 13. Some Traps to Avoid1.1 Treating scenarios as forecasts. forecasts2. Constructing scenarios based on too simplistic a difference. Such as optimistic and pessimistic.3.3 Failing to make the scenario global enough in scope scope.4. Failing to focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise.5.5 Treating scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or strategy formation.6. Not having an adequate p g q process for engaging g g g management teams in the scenario planning process.7. Failing to put enough imaginative stimulus into the scenario design.8. Not using an experienced facilitator. 13
  14. 14. Level of Strategic Thinking Paradigm Within paradigm challenging strategies strategiesStrategic thinking - Strategy as - Scenarios as a strong prolongation or source of higher-level modification of the strategic thinking and past planning Future trapStrategic thinking Mindless action - Scenarios as science weak - Tactical and action or intellectual exercise planning with no connection to strategic action Futures focus weak Futures focus strong 14
  15. 15. Level of Integration g Level ofintegration Future integration Integrates long-term perspectives with mid- term strategies and short-term actions Strategy integration Integrates different businesses and products in search for strategic leverage Process integration Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes Time horizon 15
  16. 16. Models for Scenario Project Participation Organization Expert model model model Alone With a group in In training/The planner the th organization i ti instructing the i t ti thworks organization The planner The planner The plannerControl controls the takes part in and stays outside the process leads the process process Is presented by p y Is owned and Is owned by the yThe Result the planner presented by the organization group The planner The planner The planner completes the maintains a passesRelationship assignment relationship with responsibility to the group the group 16
  17. 17. Scenarios and Uncertainties Uncertainty A Scenario 1 Scenario 2Uncertainty B Scenario 3 Scenario 4 17
  18. 18. Contoh: Daily Newspapers Strong demand for digital information Wait and Cyberworld y see 2010Newspapers Newspapersconservative IT-active Business as High-tech usual p production Weak demand for digital information 18
  19. 19. Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010 Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya Authoritarian A th it i government t Pro-fairPro-growth distribution economic economicorientation orientation i t ti Democratic government 19
  20. 20. On the Edge• Authoritarian government system with a pro- pro growth economic orientation.• Separatist movements cause Indonesia to disintegrate. Conflicts between the regions and g g the centre spread to become inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts, labor conflicts, and anti- Chinese violence.• Anarchy i A h increases. Ci il di b di Civil disobedience grows. Education and religion are used to enforce ideological uniformity.• Economic growth occurs through big capital and high technology.• After Aceh and Papua, Riau secedes from Indonesia. Indonesia 20
  21. 21. Padding a Leaky Boat• Combines a democratic government system with a pro-growth economic orientation.• Indonesia become democratic, with a free press and the rule of law. p• Regional autonomy works. Economic problems are overcome through growth, both through foreign investment and using domestic assets. 21
  22. 22. Into the Crocodile Pit• Combines an authoritarian government with a pro-fair distribution economic orientation.• Indonesia becomes more authoritarian due to economic isolation. To keep up popular subsidies, the government over-exploits natural resources.• Factories close, as resources grow scarce. Forced agriculture is brought backs, as in colonial times times.• Dissidents are kept down by terror. Nationalist soldiers join populist forces to launch a coup d’etat. 22
  23. 23. Slow but Steady• Combines a democratic government with pro pro- fair distribution economic orientation.• Successful regional autonomy and decentralization saves Indonesia from destruction• Democracy survives the end of the New Order.• Foreign investors return, as does international credibility. dibilit• Violence recedes. Justice becomes the basis for resolving conflict. g• Economic growth is low profile, but fait distribution reaches the regions. 23
  24. 24. Contoh:China Scenarios to 2025 24
  25. 25. Regional Ties• Regional Ties describes how China continues g on the path of reform despite an international environment that becomes increasingly difficult. Chinese leadership and vision p facilitate the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical enmities and restore prosperity in Asia.• The scenario is written as a Government White Paper, reflecting on 20 years of progress in China a medium often used by China, the Chinese government to communicate to the public-at-large on a major issue, to lay out its policy or to reflect on the past past. 25
  26. 26. Unfulfilled Promise• Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the d i f th desire for economic development is not i d l ti t supported by the necessary structural reforms. The name reflects the general g sentiment among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in terms of inclusive economic development has been largely unfulfilled.• The story is told as an article in a Western y online journal and reviews China’s development over the period 2006-2025. 26
  27. 27. New Silk Road• New Silk Road describes the flourishing g economic and cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence of substantial internal obstacles The scenario reflects obstacles. China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role in the exchange of goods, services, investments and ideas. In this way it i i t t d id I thi recreates the original Silk Road.• The scenario is told using the Online Encyclopaedia of the World and provides a factual account of what China has achieved over a 20 20-year period. i d 27
  28. 28. Contoh:India Scenarios to 2025 28
  29. 29. Bolly World• “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian film industry famous for its masala movies— industry, movies melodramatic extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are so dazzled by the immediate gains t be made i i t i to b d in international markets th t th f il t ti l k t that they fail to implement much needed domestic reforms.• The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025 A chartered 2025. accountant tells his traveling companion why he thinks India is no longer experiencing international success and is facing so many p g y problems. As he p puts it, the situation “is j , just like Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.” 29
  30. 30. Pahale I di P h l India• “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the scenario in at least three ways: 1. people from across India put the needs of their community and country first; 2. India emerges as a global economic leader; and 3. India’s dynamic internal developments make it a India s source of inspiration for the rest of the world.• This story is told by a successful Indian business woman at the 40th I di Economic b i t th India E i Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech explores the reasons for India’s remarkable success. 30
  31. 31. Atakta Bharat• “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without Atakta Bharat getting direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India.• The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers, Farmers Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an example of one of the more positive responses made by some Indians to the multitude of troubles facing India. g• The speech itself also draws attention to the importance of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20 years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial well i t ti ll intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because d tt t t f i I di f il d b of corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will. The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to describe how India’s future could have been very India s different. 31
  32. 32. ContohPandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010 (Bandung, 2 Januari 2000) Ekonomi Low Govern L Skenario 4 Skenario 2 Fajar Riak Tangis nment Interve Menyingsing, Menyingsing di Nusa Kabut Mulai Damai Tersibak ention Tertutup Terbuka Skenario 1 High Governme Intervention Skenario 3 Zamrud ent Kawah Berserakan Bergolak 32
  33. 33. Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia 2010 Tinggi Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan Tertutup Skenario 2: Riak Rendah Tangis di Nusa Damai Tinggi Ti i Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak Terbuka Skenario 4: F j Sk i 4 Fajar Rendah Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak 33
  34. 34. Zamrud Berserakan• Indonesia terpecah, pelanggaran hak asasi manusia sering terjadi.• Peranan masyarakat rendah, setelah terjadinya kudeta yang mengubah keadaan masyarakat terbuka menjadi masyarakat tertutup. j y p• Untuk bertahan hidup, pemerintah melakukan intervensi ekonomi yang sangat tinggi.• Kelaparan terjadi di mana mana Pada saat yang mana-mana. sama Indonesia dikucilkan oleh masyarakat dunia. 34
  35. 35. Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai• Adanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah Indonesia setelah menyaksikan bahwa pengambilan keputusan dan kompromi dalam masyarakat terbuka terlalu banyak memakan waktu dan energi, yang disertai dengan perdebatan sengit dan bising. P d h l masalah yang d b t it d bi i Padahal l h dihadapi Indonesia sangat berat dan memerlukan penanganan yang cepat.• Maka diambillah pilihan untuk membatasi keterbukaan masyarakat, sehingga pengambilan keputusan bisa lebih cepat dan kerja bisa lebih efisien.• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah hanya sedikit melakukan ekonomi intervensi, sehingga pertumbuhan berlangsung cepat. Namun karena kebijakan negara memprioritaskan ekonomi, dan untuk itu hak-hak rakyat banyak dikorbankan.• Pada akhirnya, masyarakat dunia tidak bisa mentoleransi lagi terhadap Indonesia, dan kampanye pemboikotan terhadap produk Indonesia dilancarkan di seluruh dunia. 35
  36. 36. Kawah Bergolak• Keadaan Indonesia yang tak pernah reda sejak runtuhnya Orde Baru.• Masyarakat terbuka merangsang perdebatan tidak ada hentinya di kalangan masyarakat.• Waktu dan energi hanya digunakan untuk berdebat dan mengatasi pergolakan politik Padahal tekanan kemiskinan politik. akibat krisis ekonomi perlu mendapat penyelesaian segera.• Untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan ini sesegera mungkin, maka p g , pemerintah melakukan intervensi y g yang tinggi demi menyelamatkan masyarakat miskin, akibatnya pengurasan sumber daya alam tak terkendali sama sekali.• Indonesia bagaikan kawah yang bergolak. Setiap waktu bisa bi meletus d memporakporandakan I d l t dan k d k Indonesia. i 36
  37. 37. Fajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai Tersibak Menyingsing,• Masyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untuk membangun masyarakat terbuka, yang mendorong makin kuatnya peranan masyarakat dan makin berkurangnya kekuasaan pemerintah.• Ketidaksabaran memang terus menggoda dan korban benar- benar berjatuhan. Berkali-kali masyarakat dan pemerintah tergoda untuk mengurangi keterbukaan masyarakat, tapi niat itu dikalahkan dengan ketakutan makin terancamnya kemanusiaan dan Indonesia.• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah mengurangi intervensinya, kecuali beras beras.• Konflik-konflik horisontal yang terjadi di awal pemerintahan Gus Dur membuat orang makin takut terhadap perpecahan. Jika Indonesia pecah, maka nusantara akan kembali seperti p , p sebelum dijajah Belanda.• Perang antar negara baru tak akan terelakkan. Ketakutan perang antar negara -pecahan Indonesia- inilah yang menjadikan masyarakat tetap menjaga k j dik k tt t j kesatuan Indonesia. t I d i 37
  38. 38. Contoh: Indonesia 2025 Visi Indonesia 20251 Indonesia Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan tetap mempertahankan jati diri dan identitas nasional di lingkungan g g g global p pada tahun 20252 Pemerintah Menempatkan Indonesia sebagai negara yang mempunyai standar hidup dan daya saing di Nusantara Jaya atas rata-rata dunia di tahun 2025 Bangsa dan negara yang unggul dan menjadi pemain utama di lingkungan global Kebijakan Sengsara Nasional Bangsa dan negara yang Skenario 3 tetap miskin dan tertatih- tatih di era globalisasi Skenario 2 Prahara Bangsa dan negara yang Skenario 1 gagal dan terjungkal di tahun 2025 2025 38
  39. 39. Daftar PustakaEisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak - Dialog Regional Eisy, Jawa Barat Menyusun Skenario Indonesia Masa Depan Pandangan dari Jawa Barat : Skenario Indonesia 2010,,LINGREN Mats and Hans Bandhold, 2003 “Scenario Planning the Bandhold 2003, Scenario Planning, Link between Future and Strategy”, New York: Palgrave MacMillanHermana, Budi (2007) “Peran BI Menuju Indonesia 2025: Prahara, ( ) j Sengsara, atau Nusantara Jaya?”, Universitas GunadarmaRINGLAND, Gill, 2006.Scenario Planning, West Sussex: John Willey & Sons Ltd“What is Scenario Planning? , http://www 12manage com/ What Planning?” methods_scenario_planning.htmlWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, China and the World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.orgWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, India and the World: Scenarios to 2025, 39
  40. 40. Terima Kasih 40