Climate change poses security risks for India through its impacts. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events may displace millions of people in India and cause food and water insecurity. This could exacerbate existing social tensions and conflicts. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh may see environmental refugees fleeing to India, altering demographics. Water disputes may also arise between India and its neighbors like China and Pakistan. The Indian military will need to adapt operations and potentially provide more humanitarian aid. Overall, climate impacts threaten stability in India and could impact its relationships in South Asia.

1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEFENCE &
SECURITY ISSUES
By
ANUP SINGH
DC
NDRF ACADEMY NAGPUR1

2. What Is Climate Change?
• Climate change is change in Earth's climate.
• This could be a change in Earth's usual
temperature.
• It could be a change in where rain and snow
usually fall on Earth.
• Weather can change in just a few hours.
• Climate takes hundreds or even millions of
years to change
2

3. Major Causes of Climate Change
• The arctic tundra and wetlands release methane, a
greenhouse gas.
• Earth naturally has a cycle of climate change that
occurs every 40, 000 years
• The sun’s solar energy output is changing and naturally
increases earth’s average temperature by about 1 ºc
every century
• Earth’s orbit and tilt alter in relation to the sun, which
changes solar energy output
Natural Causes
3

4. Human Causes
• Increasing green house gas emissions from
burning fossil fuels-oil, coal, gas Pollution.
• Increasing world population-more people
requires more food, energy, transportation, etc.
• Smog and Pollution From Factories
• Farm Animals Release Methane From their
Wastes
• Deforestation
4

5. • The average temperature at the surface of the earth has increased by 0.74
(0.56-0.92) °C during the twentieth century.
• The temperature increase, though widespread, is greater at higher northern
latitudes.
• Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both
hemispheres.
• Melting of glaciers will lead to higher sea level, which will cause floods and put
many low-elevation regions at risk of disappearing under water
• The global average sea level has risen by 0.1 to 0.2 meters in the century
consistent with warming.
• Precipitation has increased in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere
while it has decreased in subtropical regions.
Some Effects of Climate Change
5

6. Some Effects of Climate Change
• Climatic phenomena such as heavy rains in parts of the northern
hemisphere, warm episodes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
over the tropics, and droughts in some regions of Asia and Africa have
gained in intensity and frequency .
• Migrating birds are forced to change their time and place of migration
• Longer summers can disrupt animal habitation
• New and widespread diseases because of warm climate
• Damaged crops due to sudden climate change and floods
• Increasing frequency of Droughts, heat waves, extreme winters and
storms, hurricanes, typhoons
• More wildfires
Source - Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC)6

7. CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTERS AND SECURITY: THE INDIA CONTEXT
• For the Indian subcontinent, the projected changes by IPCC, project warming of
2- 4.7 °C, with the most probable level being around 3.3 °C by the year 2100
• Warming is expected to be more marked in the winter half of the year (3.6 °C)
than in summer (2.7 °C), and stronger in the north than in the south.
• Most scenarios project a decrease in precipitation during the inter dry period
and an increase for the rest of the year.
• At the same time, an increase in heavy rain events is probable, particularly in
the north of India.
• The global sea level rise of 0.1 to 0.9 meters is particularly expected to be high
in the Indian Ocean, especially on the west coast.
7

8. Expected climate change impacts for India
• Changes in weather patterns
• Cyclonic disturbances
• Sea-level rise
• Changes in agriculture yields
• Changes in fresh water supply
• Impacts on forests and natural ecosystems
• Impacts on human health
8

9. 9

10. 10

11. Trends - 20th Century
• Over the 20th century, climate related disasters were seven times as frequent as those including geo
physical hazards globally, and accounted for nine times as many deaths and caused economic losses that
were three times higher (UNDP, 2007b).
11

12. Trends - 21st Century.
• In the 21st century over the past three decades, climate related natural disasters occurred five times as frequently, killed
or affected seventy times as many people, and caused twice as much damage worldwide as did earthquakes and
volcanoes.
12

13. 13

14. 14

15. 15

16. Occurrence of climate disasters: 1987-2006 with averages for periods
1987-1998 and 2000-2006
(Source : CRED 2007)16

17. 17

18. 18

19. Disasters and Security
• Major disasters are much more than mere ‘disaster events’ and could
result in severe social, political, economic and environmental
consequences, posing many new threats and challenges to national
security and stability.
• Major disasters disrupt a stable social system and the aftermath is a
chaotic unstable random system with conditions of inequality, resource
scarcity, social grievances, and political tension- conditions ripe for
heightening inter-state and intra-state conflicts.
• Disasters could also destroy main political and social institutions,
threatening political stability.
19

20. • The earthquake in Guatemala in 1976 caused widespread destruction in the
country that eventually brought an abrupt and violent change of leadership
from the 21 year old military regime.
• Similarly the country of Bangladesh was formed after angered victims of the
1970 cyclone instigated civil war in East Pakistan.
• A major disaster thus has the potential to reshape society and catalyze political
change.
• In the developing countries, disasters serves as a warning against Govt. that
separate natural disasters from their political and socio-economic context, from
economic growth, and from the vulnerabilities inherent in the process, which
affect the impact of major disasters.
Disasters and Security
20

21. Security
• Security, in simple terms, is ‘lack of conflict’, extant or potential.
• Conflicts do not occur unexpectedly and there many obvious causes of
conflicts behind the immediate factors that trigger conflicts, deeper
causes.
• Such as territorial demands, socioeconomic inequalities, economic
interests, the defence of political ideologies, burgeoning nationalism
• The struggles of ethnic minorities, racism and arms proliferation, i.e,
vulnerable human conditions are the most important factors.
21

22. Does climate change impact national security?
• The linkages between climate change and National security work both indirectly and
directly.
• The adverse impact on human security would bear on national security as well.
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile
regions of the world
• Effects of climate change will create tensions even in stable regions of the world.
• The consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security
and national defence strategies .
22

23. Impact of Climate Change on Security: What is at Stake
for India?
• India’s is emerging as a leading global player .
• By 2030s, India would become the world’s third largest economy after China
and the USA
• While India is a high growth economy, there is great inequity and a large
human development backlog.
• The population of India is forecast to be around 1.4 billion by 2020.
23

24. • The high population pressure combined with increasing cyclone intensity and
sea-level rise as a result of climate change will put millions of people at risk of
being hit by Cyclones , Storm surges and flood disasters.
• Climate change is expected to have deep impact on food, energy, water,
internally displaced persons and migrants, health and economy.
• It could aggravate numerous existing conflicts.
• At the same time, it could generate new stresses, tensions and conflicts.
• Climate change could become a major issue in India’s bilateral relations with its
neighbours.
Impact of Climate Change on Security: What is at
Stake for India?
24

25. • South Asian countries have weak governance structures, inadequate public
health systems and low adaptation capacity, there would be greater strain on
governments’ resources.
• India could also face bilateral problems with neighboring countries due to
climate change reasons.
• A large number of environmental refugees could come to India from Bangladesh
thereby altering the demographic balance in the Indian states.
• Migrations could also take place from Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal.
• Water sharing issues could arise between India and China, India and Bangladesh,
India and Pakistan.
Impact of Climate Change on Security: What is at Stake
for India?
25

26. A Direct Threat to Military Preparedness
• The armed forces may compelled to change their war-fighting doctrines and operations
in light of climate change.
• Increased pressure for military to participate in increasing humanitarian assistance,
disaster relief and evacuation operations.
• Defence spending may reduce because of the increasing disasters.
• The failure to achieve self sustaining development progress following major disasters will
pose instability risks, with likely impacts on neighbours and the international system.
• The scale and intensification of these risks is likely to elicit military responses as national
interests would be threatened.
• Apart from the impact on society, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events directly impacts military assets and undermines military readiness. 26

27. NAVY
• For the Indian Navy, Sea Level Rise (SLR) would affect naval operations at
all levels of warfare – strategic, operational and tactical.
• Port operations, protection of coastal installations and changes in
manning of ships will also be effected
• Climate change is a threat to naval operations and infrastructure and its
impact on maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
• By 2045, climate change is likely to have more noticeable effects such as
the risks of flooding of coastal cities from the rising sea level as well as
from the frequent and destructive weather events. 27

28. Climate-Change threats and Challenges-
 High risk in Himalayan glacier meltdown - medium possibilities of
extreme weather
 Increased risk of war due to water sharing disputes
The southern Asian context India Pakistan : Jammu & Kashmir
High probabilities of glacial meltdown
Medium possibilities of extreme weather
Risk of natural disasters
Diversion of river waters and transborder spillage or flooding due to high
rise dam constructions or artificial lake storage
India-China
28

29.  High probabilities of glacial meltdown
 natural disasters in the Trans- Himalayan region
 triggering mass displacement of people into India
India-Bangladesh
 High probabilities of river overflows due to trans Himalayan climate changes
 high probabilities of rising sea-levels and mass displacement of people
 high probabilities of extreme weather and greater risk of mass displacement of people
as refugees
India-Sri Lanka
 Rising sea-levels and mass displacement of Tamils from Northeast to India
India-Nepal
29

30. THANKS
30