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Linking the energy crisis with climate change, Ritu Mathu, TERI University, India

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This lecture is part of the 2016 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers’ School on sustainable energy for transforming lives: availability, accessibility, affordability

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Linking the energy crisis with climate change, Ritu Mathu, TERI University, India

  1. 1. Linking Energy Crisis with Climate Change 2016 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers School Dr Ritu Mathur, (Professor, TERI University) February 2, 2016
  2. 2. What does climate science tell us?
  3. 3. Figure SPM.1b Observed change in surface temperature 1901-2012 All Figures © IPCC 2013
  4. 4. Figure SPM.2 Observed change in annual precipitation over land All Figures © IPCC 2013
  5. 5. What emission trends do we observe?
  6. 6. 6 GHG emissions growth has accelerated despite reduction efforts.
  7. 7. GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades. 7 Based on Figure 1.3
  8. 8. About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years. 8 Based on Figure 5.3
  9. 9. Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century. 9 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
  10. 10. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal. 10 Based on Figure 6.7
  11. 11. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal. 11 ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7
  12. 12. Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy. 12
  13. 13. Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy. 13 Based on Figure 7.16
  14. 14. Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals. 14
  15. 15. Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals. 15 Based on Figures 6.33 and 12.23
  16. 16. • Energy security considerations • Local air pollution concerns • Health Climate not the only driver of change…
  17. 17. Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than economy-wide policies. 17 Based on Figure 10.15
  18. 18. Synergistic suggestions across studies © OECD/IEA 2012 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
  19. 19. • Pace of change • Fuels, technologies, infrastructure, materials, behaviour, IT, skill sets • Multitude of instruments • Across all sectors • Encompassing all stakeholders Need for a paradigm shift ….
  20. 20. India’s Energy Choices, Challenges & Implications 20
  21. 21. India’s Energy Snapshot  Low per capita energy consumption: 596 kgoe (2011/12) (World average 1802 kgoe per capita)  Per capita consumption of electricity 884 kWh/annum (2011/12) (World average: 3044 kWh/annum)  80% of rural India dependent on traditional fuels for cooking  Fossil fuels account for about 70% of the primary energy supply Sustained economic growth and social development require increasing energy use 21
  22. 22. Energy and Related Challenges  Large under-served, yet aspiring, population  Energy demand drivers accelerating rapidly • Income levels • Urbanisation • Access to markets o Financial o Consumer goods • High levels of mobility • Digitally connected world  Stagnating, if not declining, conventional energy resources  Import dependence continually on the rise • Fossil fuel import bill as a share of total export earnings has grown from 35% in 2001-02 to 60% in 2012-13 • Adverse impacts on our balance of payments, in 2012-13 India’s trade balance deficit was around US$ 190 Billion • Rising and volatile fuel prices  Abundant, under-developed, renewable energy sources 22
  23. 23. GSDR Graphs & findings 23
  24. 24. India’s growth story: Implications • Can we reduce emissions in absolute terms? • When should we peak? • Retirements & economic life ? • The use & throw culture versus recycling? • Distributional effects of growth • Access, quality, reliability of energy & services vs GDP growth • Impacts of Climate Change on Growth 24
  25. 25. Energy efficiency • Improvements in appliance efficiency or system-wide efficiencies • Energy intensity residential sector – Japan case study • Energy Efficiency or resource efficiency (materials, water, energy….) 25
  26. 26. Rank by Historical responsibility • Segregation of mitigation culpability into historical and current • Historical emissions caused since the beginning of industrialization specifically by developed countries • Indicator used: Per capita cumulative CO2 emissions (1850-1989) Ton CO2 26
  27. 27. Rank by Current responsibility • Captures recent trends (since 1990) in emissions • Per capita CO2 emissions (1990- 2011) Ton CO2e • GHG emissions (2011) Million ton CO2e • GHG intensity of GDP (2011) ($/ton CO2e) 27
  28. 28. Adaptive capacity ranking Indicators • Water Security • Food Security • Health Risk Resilience • Urban Risk Resilience • Disaster Risk Resilience • Socio- Economic Capability 28
  29. 29. Ranking of risk • Risk = Hazards * Exposures * Vulnerabilities [IPCC] • Ricks categorized as effects of Hydro- Metero-Climatological disasters • HMC disasters- floods, landslides, tropical cyclones, typhoons etc. • Data used at Climatological scales- over 30 years 29
  30. 30. Energy Access Lighting  It has been estimated that the annual expenditure on kerosene for lighting by off- grid and under-electrified households is around USD 2.2 billion. Out of this, around USD 1.8 billion is spent by rural households Cooking  Inefficient burning of biomass in traditional cookstoves requiring higher quantities and leading to pollution  Indoor air pollution from burning of solid fuels increases health risks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% INDIA ArunachalPradesh Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura Meghalaya Assam Sikkim WestBengal No lighting Any other Other oil Solar energy Kerosene Electricity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% INDIA ArunachalPradesh Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura Meghalaya Assam Sikkim WestBengal No cooking Any other Biogas Electricity LPG Kerosene Coal, Lignite,Charcoal Cowdung cake Crop residue Firewood Source: Census 2011 30
  31. 31. Deteriorating Air Quality Regional scale air quality in India -2011 and projections for Reference Scenario 2031 PM2.5 (2031: Winter)PM2.5 (2011: Winter)  By 2011/12 most cities in the country had already exceeded the ambient air quality standard  In 2011/12, mortality from PM 2.5 was 5.73 lakhs  In future, the air quality worsens increasing the mortality to 33.6 lakhs (2031/32) Source: TERI’s Integrated MARKAL, WRF, CMAQ Models Results 31
  32. 32. India’s Energy Requirements in a Reference Scenario • Primary energy supply increases from 717 (2011/12) mtoe to 1950 mtoe (2031/32); coal followed by oil remain the two dominant energy sources • Final energy demand rises from 549 mtoe (2011/12) to 1460 mtoe (2031/32), an increase of about 2.7 times in 20 years • Industry sector continues to remain the major energy consumer ( 40%- 48%), and the share of transport sector rises from 16% (2011/12) to 25% ( 2031/32) Primary Energy Requirement Final Energy Demand Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 32 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32 Mtoe Agriculture Commercial Residential Transport Industry 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32 Mtoe Traditional Biomass Liquid Biofuel Tidal Geothermal Waste to Energy Biomass based Power Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal
  33. 33. Energy Security Driven Scenarios Scenarios Storyline Energy Security Moderate (ESM) A determined effort is provided here for efficiency improvements both on the supply and demand sides, an accelerated push for diversifying the energy mix, increasing renewables, and penetration of new technologies. Efforts are made to increase domestic production. Energy Security Ambitious (ESA) Energy security concerns, are paramount here. The main objective being to drastically reduce the energy imports of the country by 2031. This entails faster implementation of efficiency measures, rapid penetration of new technologies, and increased electrification of the economy. The role of renewables is crucial in this scenario. 33
  34. 34. Primary Energy Growth • The ESM reflects a saving of 17% while the ESA reflects a saving of 26% in 2031/32 when compared to the RES levels • The share of new renewable energy increases to 3% in ESM and 7% in ESA compared to 2% in RES in 2031/32 • The share of fossil fuels in the RES stands at 83%, while in the ESM it drops to 79% and in the ESA to 74% by 2031/32 Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 34 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 RES ESM ESA RES ESM ESA RES ESM ESA 2011/12 2021/22 2031/32 Mtoe Traditional Biomass Liquid Biofuel Tidal Geothermal Waste to Energy Biomass based Power Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal
  35. 35. Imports  Coal imports see a drop of over 700MT in the alternate scenarios as compared to the RES levels in 2031/32  Oil imports drop by 140MT in ESM and become less than half of the RES levels in the ESA in 2031/32  In the ESM, gas imports are lower than the RES levels in 2031/32, however, in the ESA gas imports see an increase of around 60 BCM. This is because Natural Gas is seen as a bridge fuel in the move towards a less import dependent, secure, and cleaner economy. 2012/13 2031/32 RES ESM ESA Coal ( MT) 135 1012 306 203 Gas (BCM) 13.7 76 56 136 Oil (MT) 147 481 341 222 Source: Coal Controller of India, 2012-13; Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2012-13, TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 35
  36. 36. Electricity Sector: Projections  Share of RE in the generation capacity mix rises from 9% (2011/12) to 23% in ESM and to 31% in ESA as compared to 17% in RES (2031/32)  Share of coal based generation capacity reduces from 52% (2011/12) to 50% in ESM, 32% in ESA, as compared to an increase to 62% in RES (2031/32) Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 36 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 RES ESM ESA 2031/32 GW Tidal Geothermal Waste Biomass Solar thermal Solar PV Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Nuclear Hydro Diesel Gas Coal
  37. 37. …RE Power Sector Development  Promoting solar power generation  Development of solar parks on the lines of SEZs  Strategic plan for developing competitive domestic industry  National level policy and regulatory guidelines for roof top solar power plants  Compensation to utilities  Inclusion of energy storage to reduce loss due to non availability of grid  Policy for new constructions to have roof top solar (especially for large buildings) 124 210 352 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 GW Technical Potential Economic Potential Market Potential Market potential for rooftop SPV is 124 GW based on current build up area Source- TERI study All-India Rooftop SPV Potential 37
  38. 38. Industry Sector: Projections  Energy demand in the sector rises from 221 mtoe ( 2011/12) to 697 mtoe (2031/32), with around 60% share of coal in the RES  The ESM reflects a saving of 12% (2031/32) and the ESA that of 17% (2031/32) in comparison to the RES  The ESA sees a drop in the usage of coal and petroleum fuels with gas being used as a bridge fuel Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 38 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 RES ESM ESA 2031/32 Mtoe Biomass Grid Electrcitiy Petroleum Products Natural Gas Coal
  39. 39. Transport Sector: Projections  The energy demand of the sector grows over four times from 86 mtoe (2011/12) to 360 mtoe (2031/32) in the RES, with a share of around 96% of petroleum products  The ESM shows a saving of 21% in the ESM and 29% in the ESA by 2031/32  While in the RES biofuels comprise of only 2% of the energy mix, in the ESA this rises to 15% ( 2031/32), thus reducing the use of petroleum products by almost half Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 39 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 RES ESM ESA 2031/32 Mtoe Electricity Bio fuels CNG Petroleum Fuel
  40. 40. Residential and Commercial Sector: Projections  Energy demand of the commercial sector grows at an annual rate of around 8%  The energy demand ( including biomass) of the residential and commercial sector grows from 221 mtoe ( 2011/12) to 346 mtoe (2031/32)  The ESM reflects a saving of 9%, while the ESA reflects a saving of 15% by 2031/32, with intense electrification of the energy use  Traditional biomass continues dominate the energy mix of the residential sector even in 2031/32 Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 40 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 RES ESM ESA 2031/32 Mtoe Traditional Biomass Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Fuels
  41. 41. ..Future Actions: Kerosene to solar lantern transition  Of the 77 million off-grid households in India, the estimated dissemination of solar products comes out be just 4 to 5 per cent  In almost 2 years, it is possible to have complete transition from kerosene to solar energy for lighting off grid households in India 41
  42. 42. Agriculture Sector: Projections  The energy demand rises from 21 mtoe (2011) to 58 mtoe (2031) in the RES  The ESM reflects an energy saving of 36%, and the ESA that of 51% in 2031  In ESA we see a fall by ten times in the use of petroleum product in the sector as compared to the RES (2031)  Electrification of the sector in both ESM and ESA is coupled with penetration of energy efficiency at varying rates 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 RES ESM ESA 2031/32 Mtoe Electricity Petroleum Products Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 42
  43. 43. Agriculture: Future Actions 43
  44. 44. Reduced Emissions and Emission Intensity  In the RES, the CO2 emission levels rise from 1.7 billion tonnes ( 2011/12) to 5.5 billion tonne (2031/32)  In the ESM, the levels stand at 4.3 ( 2031/32) billion tonnes reflecting a per capita of 2.90 tonne  In the ESA, the levels further fall to 3.5 (2031/32) billion tonne translating to 2.32 tonne per capita  The ESA also shows an emission intensity reduction of 33% by 2021/22, and 57% by 2031/32 in comparison to the 2006/07 levels ( RES levels: 23% by 2021/22 and 32% by 2031/32) 44Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32 Billiontonne RES ESM ESA 0.0100 0.0150 0.0200 0.0250 0.0300 0.0350 0.0400 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32Kg/INR RES ESM ESA
  45. 45. Key Recommendations 45
  46. 46. Key take-aways • Tapping of energy efficiency space across sectors essential • Electrification of all sectors important • Shift to renewables to the extent possible • Clean and advanced coal and gas technologies for power
  47. 47. Way forward • Policy led market creation • Energy pricing reforms [Rationalize prices to provide correct signals & ensure affordable & clean energy] • Readiness for Absorption of Energy Saving Technologies • Adaptation & Innovation in Indian context • Policy space needs to provide clarity to investors • Fundamental need to plan for sustainable cities • R&D
  48. 48. Key Recommendations  Need long-term, integrated energy policy with clarity on directional pathways for energy development  Strengthen the regulatory framework to:  Function independently and in long-term interests  Develop pricing frameworks that meet energy security objectives  Encourage efficiency/demand management  Set up a Committee to review options for phasing out obsolete, inefficient infrastructure AND for preparing shape of future energy infrastructure
  49. 49. Key Recommendations  Recognise the synergistic interdependence between energy sector development and other sectors Urban Health Water Food  Importantly, recognise the job creation opportunities of decentralised, distributed energy generation, particularly in support of energy access and the SME sector
  50. 50. Key Recommendations  Immediate re-design of energy and related subsidies to promote efficiency and right-choice for consumers  Manifold increase in R&D at technical and policy levels to support desired transitions
  51. 51. In Sum! 51 “Speed in irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction.” - Mahatma Gandhi
  52. 52. Thank you for your attention….

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