Decision Making Reflection Essay

Decision Making Reflection Essay
In this reflection journal, we were asked to take a decision–making quiz on biases that we may have. I was surprised with a few that I possess. The rush
to solve and the anchoring and adjustment heuristic are the two that I tested positive for on the quiz. While I read the reasoning for the
decision–making quiz, I recalled my logic and critical reasoning class that I had before that discussed bias in argument. However, it was surprising
to see that I committed these biases on the quiz, even if I was extremely cautious in my positioning and reasoning based on what I learned from my
logic class. Although it may seem that these biases are only caused by an erroneous mistake, a lot of people have the same bias. The percentiles for
each bias... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
An example would be when I was learning C++. When I had to debug my code, I chose to ignore lines that seemed correct because I had used similar
functions in previous programs. It turns out that one of the lines that I was missing didn't include a semi–colon so the program wasn't running. I was
over–confident in my answer based on previous success. One of most concerning biases in accounting would be from the availability bias, which is
relying on information that is readily available instead of diving deeper into statistics and data. This seems like it would affect auditors that must make
decisions with rushed deadlines. An example of this case is when Phar–Mor, a grocery store, got caught overstating their inventory. When Phar–Mor
was overstating their inventory, it looked as if they were a strong competitor against Wal–Mart; however, the overstated inventory was a sign of fraud
and investors were losing from their investments because Phar–Mor could not produce the money that was promised to produce, and they weren't able
to meet the projected profits that their income statements were stating because they were fudging some of the numbers. Coopers & Lybrand was
accused of not looking close enough to uncover the millions of dollars in fraud from bogus inventory statements. If Coopers & Lybrand questioned the
fraud and didn't tell Phar–Mor when the audit was going to happen, then they might have caught the fraudulent activity. Therefore, this is an example of
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The Pros And Cons Of Soda Ban
1Why has there been so much fuss about New York City's attempt to impose a soda ban,1 or more precisely, a ban on large–size "sugary drinks"? After
all, people can still get as much soda as they want. This isn't Prohibition. It's just that getting it would take slightly more effort. So, why is this such a
big deal?
1 soda ban
In 2013, New York City passed a law prohibiting soda containers larger than 16 ounces in volume. The New York State Court of Appeals later
overturned the law.
2 Obviously, it's not about soda. It's because such a ban suggests that sometimes we need to be stopped from doing foolish stuff, and this has become, in
contemporary American politics, highly controversial, no matter how trivial the particular issue. (Large cups of soda as symbols of human dignity?
Really?) ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
It's this common desire to be left alone that prompted the Mississippi Legislature earlier this month to pass a ban on bans–a law that forbids
municipalities to place local restrictions on food or drink.
4 We have a vision of ourselves as free, rational beings who are totally capable of making all the decisions we need to in order to create a good life.
Give us complete liberty, and, barring natural disasters, we'll end up where we want to be. It's a nice vision, one that makes us feel proud of ourselves.
But it's false.
5John Stuart Mill2 wrote in 1859 that the only justifiable reason for interfering in someone's freedom of action was to prevent harm to others.
According to Mill's "harm principle," we should almost never stop people from behavior that affects only themselves, because people know best what
they themselves

Behavior Paradigms
Rationalist vs. Behavioralist Paradigm Problems 1.During the last five years, your instructor has discussed the emerging field of behavioral finance
with many colleagues. The most common reaction has been for those colleagues to smile and say, "Behavioral finance? That's an oxymoron."
Oxymoron is defined as a combination of contradictory or incongruous words (e.g. cruel kindness). Explain this reaction using a) the concept of
paradigm and b) attributes of the behavioral and rational paradigms. a)According to the concept of a paradigm, someone in finance would operate on a
set of principles that their work is based upon. It is the method by which they analyze their data. Under this philosophy the statement is considered an...
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Kuhn has been even more distressed by those who admiringly misinterpret him. "I've often said that I am much fonder of my critiques than my
fans," he comments. In the 1960s his work was seized on by radicals opposed to science and its offspring, technology, and indeed to any "cognitive
authority that might distort "pure experience." Kuhn recalls students telling him, "Oh, thank you, Mr. Kuhn, for telling us about paradigms. Now
that we know about them, we can get rid of them." a)How would Kuhn address the criticism that he is claiming science to be nothing more than
"power politics" or "mob psychology? b)He described it this way because sometimes scientists or people of science follow the convention of
multiple people with valid theories. They follow what was tested or theorized and expand their research from that. It is similar to politics in that
there is one individual that attempts to persuade the many to follow them and that their ideas are the truth through experimentation. He would
address the criticism by reminding those that he still believes in science and that the idea of a paradigm is not completely a bad thing, for if you can
identify it you can strive to get rid of it and progress in your thinking. b) Did the 60s radicals rid the world of paradigms? Why or why not? No, the
concept

Eating Sausage And Beliefs
Type of metal shortcut in where people are more likely to believe in something that is more common and frequently talked about. The availability
heuristic often relies on information that one already knows, which comes up in their mind first. This leads people to make fast judgements,
answers, and decisions that are not always correct. If you hear a story on the news about how eating sausage can lead to anal cancer, most people
will not believe it because it has never happened to them or anyone they know. On the other hand, if a relative, friend, or someone you know ate a
sausage and got anal cancer, you will most likely believe it is true because you've seen and heard of it yourself. (Page 70). 1973 research: subjects were
required to listen

Daniel Kahneman
In 2002, psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics. In the early 1970s, Kahneman and Amos Tversky set out to disassemble
an entity of economic theorists, Homo economicus. Kahneman's main focus was human irrationality. In his career there were three important phases.
At first he and Tversky did a series of experiments in which revealed twenty or more cognitive biases. They defined these as unconscious errors of
reasoning that distort judgment. Characteristically paired with cognitive biases were anchoring effects which are the tendencies to be influenced by
irrelevant numbers we are exposed to. In the second phase of his career, he and Tversky showed that when making decisions under uncertain conditions
people do not behave... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
He theorized experienced well–being compared to remembered well–being which is the way that most researchers relied on to explain happiness. From
this he discovered that experienced happiness was caused by different things that caused remembered happiness. The main component in remembered
happiness dealt with the duration. Commonly in memory a person can remember a situation in which they were supposedly happy in that moment
when it turns out when they remember it they were not. For example a surprise guest shows up to a person's house that day. In the moment they are
delighted to see that person. But later on when reflecting on that day the person may realize that the surprise visitor actually messed up their plans for
the day which makes them upset. Though much more research is needed in hedonic psychology, Kahneman's concepts have laid the foundation for the
findings he reports in his

The Importance Of A Professional Portfolio Managers
Emotional Knowledge is Key to Investment Success
Understanding emotions and how we process information to make decisions is vital to investment success. This is true whether you manage your own
portfolio or whether you have hired a professional portfolio manager to handle the task. The sad reality is that most professional money managers don't
understand that their emotional judgements are likely harmful to portfolio performance. Professional money managers are at the mercy of the
investor's behavioral biases without even realizing it. For example, if a professional money manager believes in investing for the long–term knowing
that he will suffer from underperformance from time to time, he may not realize it but when he begins to ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
These are automatic and we generally have no control over them. System 1 is what gets us in trouble when we are making investment decision
based on probability. System 1 can also be learned skills such as mathematics. When I ask you what 2 + 2 equals you likely did not hesitate one
instant. It was automatic and effortless. System 2 requires attention and effort. When I ask you what 23 x 56 equals you first hesitate then begin to
work through the problem. It requires you to draw on skills you do not use every day. System 1 is generally good at making decisions based on
initial reactions however it is biased and has little understanding of logic or statistics. Both systems fight for our attention and we generally allow
system 1 to overpower system 2 since we know system 2 is lazy. Here is an example of the laziness of system 2 from the book, "Thinking Fast and
Slow", by Daniel Kahneman.
A bat and ball cost $1.10
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
The first number that comes to your mind is from system 1. I am guessing that most people have guessed $0.10, which is wrong. Now that I have
told you that it is wrong you system 2 will kick in to try and figure out the true answer. The true answer is $0.05. If the bat costs one dollar more than
the ball it will cost $1.05 and the ball will

Judgment Under Uncertainty: The Validity Of
Introduction
In the psychology field, availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. The replicated study was
conducted by Tversky and Kahneman in 1973 "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristic and Biased", the study was biased in judgments to reveal some
heuristic of thinking under certainty. This study was significant because it helps us understand the brain more. In order to investigate availability the
experiment presented four lists to the participants. Two of the lists had 19 famous male and 20 non–famous female names. They were asked to recall
as many names as possible in a matter of time. The results came in with a realization that people can easily recall famous names, it is harder ... Show
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On the Race of Participants graph it shows which race was able to identify the famous and non–famous names faster. The graph Male and Female
Participants, shows if females or males had more knowledge of the names. On the original study, this was significant to see if races or genders changes
the results of the participants. The Repeated Measurement, was a strength in the study because it was a success. The study was an opportunistic
self–selection, also a strength. The Limitations of the study was that some participants were talking during the experiment, Non–participants in the
experiment area, Classroom music playing in the background, Misnumbering of participants, Wrong powerpoint was used, and classroom setup in both
trials. For better results and improvement in this study the researcher recommends that the Non–participants are removed out of the room, no music in
the background, recount the number of participants at least twice, and set up the classroom in a way that will be good for the participants in the study.
The study was a success, the students were able to identify the number of famous names faster than non–famous names. Although, there were some
limitations that could affect the results, the study was still a

Social Psychology Investigate People 's Behaviors Within...
Abstract The relatively new science, called Social psychology investigate people's behaviors within group interactions by using researcher's knowledge
of stereotypes and heuristics (Baron, A. Robert, Branscombe, R. Nyla, pp. 37 & 183). The way people feel about other individuals and behave within
their groups is determine by their quick judgments of others. Whenever quick judgments of others are made, representations of "that kind of person" is
created and stored into memory. Typically anyone not in the same group is an outsider (Hamilton L. David, & Sherman J. Stevens, 1996). Several
studies have supported the idea that both the use of stereotypes and heuristics influence the way individuals behave in group settings. Although there
are a few that state that other characteristics are the cause of any particular behavior within a group, such as proximity (Leonard M. Jessup &David
A. Tansik, 2007). Naturally it is common for individuals to judge other individuals, as well as other groups based on beliefs about the individuals or
groups (Hamilton L. David, & Sherman J. Stevens, 1996). How a person feels about their self may also influence their behavior and cause either
negative or positive feelings (Bargh, A. John, Chen Mark, &Burrows Lara, 1996).
Key words: Stereotypes, heuristics, influence
Does the habit of creating stereotypes, and use of Heuristics influence individual's group behavior? In one form of investigation researchers use social
psychology in

The And Decision Making : A Critical Literature Review
BUSS7901 Critical Literature Review
1.1 Introduction
The presence of commonalities in human information processing has emerged from decades of research into widespread use of decision heuristics by
individuals. Tversky & Kahneman (1986) demonstrated how individuals violate normative decision rules by employing decision heuristics (e.g.
representativeness, availability, and anchoring) to solve complex problems. These cognitive aspects of decision making play a primary role in the
investment selection decision process when weighing up the benefits and costs from choice. These cognitive biases that arise have been oft ignored by
researchers in favour of the expected utility theory (Von Neuman & Morgenstern 1994). This study discusses a key cognitive bias in loss aversion and
how it is expressed in financial decision making through the disposition effect. Additionally the difficulties of measuring and the research direction
towards developing a predictive disposition index.
1.2 Prospect theory and decision making
The cognitive features of individuals involved in the decision making process are derived from prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky 1979). Prospect
theory identifies humans as not completely rational and subject to their own mental accounting and bounded rationality (Simon 1972), these processes
cause rule of thumb heuristics and cognitive biases to arise in the decision making process. Mental accounting (Thaler 1985) refers to the implicit
methods

In the modern finance theory , behavioral finance is a new...
In the modern finance theory , behavioral finance is a new paradigm , which seeks to appreciate and expect systematic financial market influence of
psychological decision making ( Olsen R A, 1998). In the recent studies irrationality in the decision making was revealed , based on certain cognitive
limitations. The present chapter is divided into two aspects
According to traditional models in finance and economics, human beings are rational while taking their decision. However the recent studies explain
that decision making is based on certain cognitive limitations. As the information's are overloaded, we will be applying certain short cuts or heuristics
in order to take a decision. The most important heuristics in the representativeness ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Essentially, behavioral finance attempts to explain the what, why, and how of finance and investment, from a human perspective" (See figure 2).
(Shefrin, 2000) however, mentioned the difference between cognitive and affective (emotional) factors: "cognitive aspects concern the way people
organize their information, while the emotional aspects deal with the way people feel as they register information" . Figure 2 The Underpinning of
Behavioral Finance
Source: (Victor Riccardi & Helen K Simon, 2000)
PSYCHOGRAPHIC MODELS
Models are designed to classify people according to certain characteristics, tendencies or behavior.. Psychographic classifications are particularly
relevant with regards to individual strategy and risk tolerance. The useful models of investors psychographic were Barnewall (1987) and Bailard, Biehl
and Kaiser (1986).
Barnewall Two way model (Barnewall, 1987)
This is one of the most previous and most prevalent investor model based on the work of Marilyn MacGruder. Barnewall distinguished the investors
into two types : passive investors and active investors.
Passive investors are those investors those who have become wealthy passively –by inheritance or by risking the capital of others rather than their own
capital. They have a greater need for security than they have tolerance for risk. Occupational groups such as corporate executives, lawyers, Chartered
Accountants,

Limitations of the Anchoring Effect
Anchoring Effect
Anchoring effect, also known as a relativity trap, is the tendency we have to compare and contrast only a limited set of items. It is called the anchoring
effect because we give disproportionate weight to the first piece of information we receive. The initial impact of the first information, our immediate
reaction to it, is so significant that it outweighs everything else, 'drowning' our ability to evaluate a situation. (http://www.entendeo.com
/decision_making_and_the_paradox_of_choice.php)
The classic example is an item at the store that is on sale. We tend to see and value the difference inprice, but not the overall price itself. This is why
some restaurant menus feature very expensive entrees, while also including more (apparently) reasonably priced ones. It is also why, when given a
choice, we tend to pick the middle option– not too expensive, and not too cheap. http://io9.com/5974468
/the–most–common–cognitive–biases–that–prevent–you–from–being–rational4 You depend on anchoring every day to predict the outcome of events,
to estimate how much time something will take or how much money something will cost. When you need to choose between options, or estimate a
value, you need footing to stand on. How much should you be paying for a new refrigirator? How much should your water bill be each month? What
is a good price for a house in this neighborhood? You need an anchor from which to compare, and when someone is trying to sell you something they
are more

Behavioral Finance By Daniel Kahneman And Amol Tversky
1.8. BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
The whole concept of Behavioural Finance was introduced by Daniel Kahneman and Amol Tversky in late 1960s. They are called as the father of
Behavioural Finance. Their observation began to kick off a whole range of discoveries, with ramifications that investors cannot afford to ignore. Later,
Tversky and Kahneman began to uncover previously searched series of behavioural bias that causes investors to act irrationally. In 2002, Daniel
Kahneman received the Noble Memorial Prize for his contribution to the study of rationality in economics. Understanding Behavioural Finance and
how it affects the markets is the key to a successful investment strategy.
Behavioral Finance is the new emerging science that explains the irrational behaviour of investors. Behavioral Finance unwind the usual assumption of
traditional finance by incorporating systematic, observable and human departures from rationality into models of financial markets and behaviour. It
helps us to understand the actual the behaviour of investors versus theories of investors' behaviour. ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Behavioral Finance Micro (BFMI) – It deals with the behaviour or biases of individual investors. It distinguishes them from rational investors
envisaged in classical economic theory.
1.8.2. Behavioral Finance Macro (BFMA) – It detects and describes the deviation in efficient market hypothesis that was explained by behavioral

The Behavioral Finance Paradigm And Its Derived...
M11EFA
BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE
COURSEWORK
Name: Thi Thanh Van Mai
Student ID: 6026628
What contribution can behavioural finance make to the explanation of stock market bubbles and crashes?
Table of Contents
I. Introduction3
II. The behavioral finance paradigm and its derived explanations of the investors' beliefs3
III. Behavioral Theories used in the finance markets4
IV. Empirical Evidences in the stock markets6
V. Conclusion7
VI. References8
I. Introduction
There have been a number of models in the traditional finance paradigm which have the common assumption that the investors would act rationally and
consider all sources of information in their marking or investing decisions. That would also lead to ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In this trend, there are several models to support this view of these investors, including the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) (Fama and French, 2004; Perold, 2004). They have been the main instruments that the rational
expectation based theories have been deploying. However, this traditional paradigm has been analyzed by a number of researches that the information
should not be considered to have a very important role in affecting investors (Miles and McCue, 1984), Titman and Warga (1986), Lusht (1988) and
Liu and Mei (1992).
II. The behavioral finance paradigm and its derived explanations of the investors' beliefs
This was also the driving dynamic for the behavioral finance paradigm, which has the origin from the above challenges that the traditional paradigm has

had. From its viewpoint, the investments that are made used to be made irrationality. Besides, this paradigm also made attempts to explore into the
investment market phenomena by proposing the two doctrines that the agents have been failed to update their beliefs correctly, and that there is the
typical deviation from the ordinary process of making choices of investments of the investors (De Long, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann, 1990;
Froot and Obstfeld, 1991). In other words, from the viewpoint of the behavioral finance paradigm, these two are the main causes of the stock

Fast And Slow By Daniel Kahneman
In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman depicts the two very different but harmonious thinking systems of our brains. They are conveniently
labeled System 1 and System 2. System 1 is responsible for quick and instinctive thinking and decisions whereas system 2 is much more methodological
and slow. An important aspect of both is attention– while one system hardly uses any (consciously), the other monopolizes it. I believe attention is an
important feature of thinking, and psychology in general, since it is essential to everyday functioning and holds a central role in development. Early on
in development, the system most used is System 1, and the use of System 2 is greatly increased and improved with age. Attention plays a fundamental
part in habituation since habituation is the decrease of attention to a stimulus until there is no response (or just a faint one) to it. Habituation is
especially useful in measuring non–verbal measures in infants (Deloache, 1976). Attention is greatly affected by biological development – specifically
the brain (Reynolds & Richards, 2008). It is generally known that control of attention increases with age and reason being is that brain structures are
developing and maturing. Biological development is not the only domain that has a close relationship with attention – social development does as well.
In order for infants to begin socialization with their parent or caregiver, they need to pay attention to them first. This initial

Representative Heuristics
There are four different rules of heuristics in social psychology – representative heuristics, availability heuristics, anchoring and adjustment heuristics,
and finally status quo heuristics. Often people employ heuristics to come to conclusions about a topic rather quickly than sitting and taking their time
to go through the standard notions of problem– solving to finally make a decision. A heuristic is a judgement that may conclude in a probable answer,
but may not always be the exact answer overall, or could be the wrong answer altogether. They do not take into account the base– rate of an event. A
base– rate can be defined as the actual calculated number of events that happen in the total population being referenced. A representative heuristic...
Often, these people will recall past instances of achieving the right paths to choose, but fail to acknowledge fully that they made mistakes in the past
or even can be susceptible to taking the wrong path when making decisions. The optimistic person could also decide to take a path or project, thinking
confidently that they will always reach their destination, but fail to realize that issues may pop up along the way, in reality consequently setting them
up to not reaching the optimum deadline or goal. Overall, it is very imperative to consider all of your options and possible consequences when making
a decision. Utilizing heuristics can point you to the right path of weighing those options, however not thinking rationally to begin with is bound to set
anyone up for undesired

Cognitive Biases And Structured Analytic Techniques
There are many cognitive biases that affect the analytic process and inhibit analysts from reaching the height of their accuracy. Each of these cognitive
biases affect thinking in a unique way, but there are different techniques that can be used to overcome these biases. Most of the time cognitive biases
are not intentional which is why it is so important that measures are taken to reduce the effect of cognitive biases. Structured Analytic Techniques
effectively reduce the effect of cognitive biases in many different ways. This paper will examine four cognitive biases and Structured Analytic
Techniques that can help intelligence analysts be more accurate and less biased in their analysis. Anchoring is acognitive bias in which there ... Show
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Outside–in thinking is a strategy that requires analysts to think from the perspective of the outside. The first step of outside–in thinking is to list all of
they forces that could have an impact on a certain topic or issue. From there the analyst looks at possible factors that could influence that topic such
as policy changes or actions of an adversary. The next step is to analyze how each of those factors could affect the topic or issue that the analyst is
focusing on. The final step of outside–in thinking is to judge whether or not the factors you identified are relevant to the issue at hand. This process
requires the analyst to first look at all possible information and then work until they have reached a conclusion. The conclusion is the last step of this
process and the analyst is aware of this fact so they are less likely to only look for information that supports their conclusion. This thinking process is
effective in encouraging analysts to avoid the pitfalls of the confirmation

How Much Is Milk Worth My Going At The Store?
Introduction Myriad decisions affront us every day. Each decision is decomposable into sub–decisions. For instance, consider the mental turmoil or
apathy required to determine whether you shall go grocery shopping. First, you determine an initial need for grocery shopping (i.e., you are out of
milk, eggs, etc.). Next, you consider what you would rather (an evaluation of utility) do. This cost–benefit analysis continues until going seems to bring
greater utility or until staying does. Though these calculations require a second or so in your mind, in decomposing this choice, one finds a series of
individual decisions contributing to the final. These subdecisions may "How much is milk worth my going to the store?" or "How much does this
television show dissuade me from going to the store?" However, one can go deeper still. In answering each of the above subquestions, you
subconsciously evaluate the options on a scale of utility. Consider this concept, though: for any arbitrarily selected value on that scale, you must
subconsciously "decide" if the value is satisfactory––a boolean decision (see Fig. 1). Additionally, all but the lowest layer of subdecisions are
considerable as independent decisions in different contexts. Accordingly, these decisions are likewise decomposable to final boolean decisions,
assuming all high level "decisions" are decomposable. Also note these boolean decisions are never consciously considered in first order as that
requires additional levels of

Thinking, Fast And Slow By Daniel Kahneman
This distinctive book called, "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, is one of very few exquisite readings I've completed so far. Daniel
Kahneman is a psychologist in Princeton University, and due to his research, he won a Nobel Prize in 2002 in economics. In the beginning of his
book, he speaks of our cognitive System 1 and System 2 ways of thinking. System 1 generates feelings, impressions, and memory. It is very
instinctive, automatic, and is considered quick thinking. System 2 on the other hand, is alert during complex problem solving, while dealing with
facts and knowledge, and is attentive while working with difficult calculations. For example, a problem such as 24 x 13, this takes more time and
knowledge to figure out (System 2), rather then recognizing an emotion from face expressions (System 1). When System 1 is strained, your System 2
steps in to help you process through that specific instant. Now aside from the psychological portion of this book, Mr. Kahneman divulges about a
consolidated economic analysis with elemental intuitions from the psychological perspective; such as, luck and skill, overconfidence, risks in the stock
market, factors of success and the decision making process. This book is overall concluded with the understanding of behavioral economics, which is
the social and cognitive components on economic decisions that are defined by individuals and have consequences that reflect from making those
decisions and taking those risks.

Essay about Rsm100 Required Readings Summaries
RSM100 Required Readings Summaries Nov. 23 – The Discipline of Teams * Teams and good performance are inseparable * Teamwork represent a
set of values that encourage listening and responding constructively to views expressed by others * Group work is NOT same as team *
Working–group focuses on individual goals * strong, clearly focused leader * group's purpose = organizational mission * individual work product *
efficient meetings * measured by influence on others (ex. financial performance) * discusses, decides, delegates * Teams require both individual and
mutual accountability * Shared leadership roles * Specific team purpose that differs from mission... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Planning and budgeting| 1. Setting a direction| 2. Organizing and staffing| 2. Aligning people| 3. Controlling and problem solving| 3. Motivating and
inspiring| 1) Setting a direction vs. planning and budgeting a. Setting a direction is more inductive (through patterns, data) i. Important for short
/long–term goal setting b. Planning works best as a complement for direction setting 2) Aligning vs. Staffing c. Aligning: getting people to understand a
vision, which leads to empowerment ii. Clear target, same direction d. Management is more about "organizing" people; structure, training, incentives 3)
Motivating vs. Controlling e. Motivation: energizes people satisfies basic human needs iii. Sense of achievement, recognition, involvement iv.
Coaching, feedback v. Reward Informal Relations are important help coordinate leadership activities. Well–led businesses tend to recognize and reward
people who successfully develop leaders. Nov. 9 – Integrative Thinking: Choices, conflict and the creative spark Feature story: Michael Lee–chin's
crisis of whether or not to sell AIC's stocks (as he supported them for many years) when they were falling dramatically. He then decided to purchase
many of one stock, Mackenzie Financial Group, one of AIC's major

David Mcraney You Are Not So Smart Analysis
PSYC–101–62670 Lisbeth Moran There are 3 different types of Heuristics. I decided to write about the Availability Heuristic. In the book, You Are
Not So Smart by, David McRaney he explains how the availability heuristic is making a choice based on an immediate and easy example that comes
to mind when evaluating a decision. Usually, this happens when you hear something from a friend or family member and immediately assume it is
true without gathering any information, and just stop or continue whatever the problem was. When I was younger, I would always want dark hair. My
mom at that time would not let me dye my hair. I remembered my aunt telling me that coffee was a good way to get darker hair. I quickly gathered all
the materials and hid

Study Stock Market Trends : Ron Insana. Investments Don 't...
How to study Stock market trends – Ron Insana Investments don't always work as planned on Wall Street. However, financial markets send signals
regarding the future of the economy. Markets can move in advance of information available to the general public. In a broad view, markets seemingly
anticipate political events. In other times, the markets will anticipate economic events long before the investing public understands what's emerging in
the general economy. The market is also effective at discounting a transformational event. When the market excessively anticipates all future revenues
and all the future profits that would accrue to the phenomenon, a bubble or mania develops. The repetitive nature of the phenomenon, or investment fad,
... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The stock and the fundamental reality of the company can become divorced. Eventually, the stock price will reconnect with economic reality, given the
way the markets have priced future profits.
People should pay attention to the indicators that suggest the bubble trend is maturing. For example, when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates,
investors should not be in equities. Investors need to recognize the historical significance of a shift in the fundamental economic environment, as
bubbles will continue to occur. The question is what will be the impact on the subsequent asset class that experiences bubble mania.
Behavioral Finance and the psychology of investing – Greg La Blanc How can a bubble ever occur? For markets to be efficient, the only element that
has to be true is that prices consistently reflect the information available at that time. However, bubbles are now developing in faster intervals and in
different sectors of the market. Experience flattens out the makings of a bubble and experience also benefits investors by means of avoiding repeated
errors in a particular investment.
Game theory applies to industrial organizations, labor markets and pricing. Game theory rarely applies to finance. The Nash equilibrium is a term used
in game theory to describe equilibrium where each player 's strategy is optimal given the strategies of all other players. A Nash Equilibrium exists when

Types Of Evidence For Instructional Purposes Essay
1. Once you have identified supporting claims, the "grounds" of an argument, then you need to be able to evaluate the evidence that will be used to
prove these claims. Evidence is the most important part of any inductive argument. But it is important to recognize that not all evidence is reliable.
Some types of evidence can 't be trusted at all. And even when good evidence is used, it might not be appropriate for certain types of claims. Thus,
evidence has to be both reliable and logically appropriate, in a word valid, in order to prove a claim true or false.
2. To oversimplify for instructional purposes, I want to explore nine major types of evidence that are most commonly used in arguments, starting with
the weakest form of evidence and moving forward toward the strongest form. I will briefly explain each type of evidence, focusing on how reliable it
tends to be (strong to weak) and how it could be appropriately used.
Handout: Types of Evidence & Sources
3. The first type of evidence is personal experience, sometimes called testimony or an "eye–witness account." This evidence is based on what an
individual experiences directly or indirectly. Psychologically, we naturally consider this type of evidence to be the strongest because it is the most
immediate and intimately tied to our local world, which we know the best. However, from a sociological perspective, personal experience is actually
the weakest type of evidence.
4. Even when our eyes see clearly

Are Judgmental Forecasts Are Psychological Biases?
Judgmental forecasts are predictions made by a group or individual, often with adequate expertise. They are typically useful when there is a lack of
historical data or dealing with a new situation (Armstrong, 1985). Trends in finance, economic conditions, and medical outcomes can be forecasted in
this way. However, judgmental forecasts are vulnerable to several psychological biases. Herbert Simon (1955) argued that humans have limited
cognitive resources and use mental rules of thumbs, heuristics, to allow us to produce adequate judgments. Though heuristic approaches are useful and
help us make good enough decisions, it allows bias to seep into our judgments. Kahneman and Tversky (1974) identified three heuristics that result in...
Second, the availability heuristic relies on easily recalled memory in judging the probability of a future occurrence, usually, an overestimation of the
probability of the event occurrence. Issues that are particularly memorable or have received a lot of attention are more salient and perceived as a more
likely occurrence. For instance, public transportation accidents are reported more frequently compared to private transport accidents, thus people think
accidents are more likely on public transportation than private. In addition, Barber and Odean (2008) found that people tend to buy stocks that have
been in the news recently or stocks that have shown to have exceptionally high trading volumes. Third, the anchoring and adjustment heuristic explains
a bias in judgments that is influenced by the initial information and is given more weight in the forecasting process. Adjustment tends to be insufficient.
When participants asked what percentage of African countries in the United Nations greater or less than random number, they would estimate fairly
close to the random number given. When judgmental forecasting from a time series, people tend to use the most recent value as their anchor (Bolger
& Harvey, 1993). The judgment moves in right direction based on information given, but it does not move enough and produce systematic biases. Other
psychological biases also affect judgmental forecasts. People are overconfident in the accuracy of their forecasts.

The School Drop Out Phenomena
In Uruguay, between one out of three and one out of four children that enroll in secondary school do not graduate. For a country that used to exhibit
high education levels and more than tripled its education expenditure per student in the last ten years, being just above Latin American standards
appears as anything but a success.
Several studies dug in the cause and nature of such an evolution. One particular finding called for the attention of researchers: the probability of an
adolescent leaving their studies exhibit two peaks, one at 15 years old and the other at 18. There seems to be a period of relative calm between ages 15
and 18 in terms of school dropping. (1)
Quite an odd shape for that process. Why is it that student feelings about education along the adolescence present this U shape? Are subjects being
taught in those particular years less interesting than others? Are them more difficult? Why such an important and long term decision goes back and
forth during adolescence?
The school drop–out phenomena has been widely researched but it still remains in the shades. Pouring money into the education system does not seem
enough to solve the issue. Despite efforts of teachers some children still underestimate the benefits of studying. Or at least they do not feel the payoff
big enough for the effort they do.
A humongous amount of hard data proves that for teens it is not a wise decision to abandon their studies. Nevertheless, simply telling them that, does
not change

Daniel Kahneman Research Paper
Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli–American Psychologist who is well known in his field of work. Kahneman won the Noble Prize in Economics, and was
an important contributor in the advancement of the field of neuroscience. His work is only one small piece to his amazing and interesting story.
Daniel Kahneman was born in Tel Aviv, which is now Israel, on March 5, 1934. He would have been born in Paris, but his mother was visiting
family. His parents were Lithuanian Jews whom immigrated to France in the early 1920's. At the age of seven young Kahneman drew his first graph
that showed his family's fortunes as a function of time that began to curve in the negative domain around the 1940's. Around the age of eight, he broke
the 6 p.m. curfew Jews ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
When he came to the United States, he was married to an Israeli woman named Irah. For a reason I that I am not able to find, they sadly divorced.
However, he found love again and this time made it work, going on 38 years together. The woman he married was Anne Treisman, a British
Psychologist who also collaborated with her husband. Returning home after some time and taking position as a lecturer in Psychology, he became a
senior lecturer in five years. Kahneman also continued his reaserach wrok, as he academically. Publishing his first work in the Journal 'Science' as
'Pupil Diameter & Load on Memory'.
He then shifted from Behavioral Economics to Hedonic Psychology. Hedonic psychology, according to Kahneman and co workers, "... is the study of
what makes experiences and life pleasant or unpleasant."
He also collaborated with several Psychologists, such as Thaler, Varey, Snell, and the bestAmos Tversky. Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in
economics for his work on 'Prospect theory', which he shared with Amos Tversky. The two were awarded the University of Louisville Grawemeyr
Award for Psychology. In the 2000's Kahneman was awarded seven different awards and achievement, and the last one was the Presidential Medal of
Freedom by the President, Barack

The Concepts Of Human Psychology
With each choice you take, each judgment you make, there is a conflict in your psyche; a fight amongst instinct and rationale. Moreover, the instinctive
piece of your brain is significantly more intense than you may might suspect. The vast majority of us get a kick out of the chance to believe that we
are equipped for settling on sound choices. We may on occasion depend on our gut nature, however in the event that essential we can approach our
forces of motivation to touch base at a consistent choice. Usually, we surmise that we have purposes behind what we trust, that is frequently a misstep.
Prof Daniel Kahneman, from Princeton University, began an inquiry in our comprehension of the human personality. It's a deep quest and... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
This quick state of mind is staggeringly effective, yet completely covered up. It is so intense, it is really in charge of the vast majority of the things
that you say, do, think and accept. We are constrained, we are not immaculate, we are nonsensical in a wide range of ways but then you have no clue
this is going on. This framework is your concealed auto–pilot, and it has its very own brain. It is sometimes known as the outsider inside. More often
than not, our quick, instinctive personality is in charge, proficiently assuming responsibility of the considerable number of thousands of choices we
make every day. The issue comes when we permit our quick, instinctive framework to settle on choices that we should disregard to our moderate,
consistent framework. This is the place the oversights sneak in.
Our reasoning is loaded with efficient errors referred to clinicians as intellectual predispositions and they influence all that we do. They make us spend
incautiously, be excessively impacted by what other individuals think. They influence our convictions, our sentiments, and our choices, and we have no
clue it is going on. It might appear to be difficult to accept, yet that is on the grounds that your intelligent, moderate personality is an ace at imagining a
main story. The majority of the convictions or suppositions you have originated from a programmed reaction. In any case, at that point your legitimate
personality designs a

Evaluating The Options On A Scale Of Utility
Introduction Myriad decisions affront us every day. Each decision is decomposable into sub–decisions. For instance, consider the mental turmoil (or
apathy) required to determine whether you shall go grocery shopping. First, you determine an initial need for grocery shopping (i.e., you are out of
milk, eggs, etc.). Next, you consider what you would rather do––an evaluation of utility. This cost–benefit analysis continues until shopping or staying
is perceived with marginally greater utility. Though these calculations require a second or so in your mind, in decomposing this choice, one finds a
series of individual decisions contributing to the final. These sub–decisions may "How much is milk worth my going to the store?" or "How much
does this television show dissuade me from going to the store?" However, one can go deeper still. In answering each of the above sub–questions, you
subconsciously evaluate the options on a scale of utility. Consider this concept though: for any arbitrarily selected value on that scale, you must
subconsciously "decide" if the value is satisfactory–a boolean decision (see Fig. 1). Additionally, all but the lowest layer of sub–decisions are
considerable as independent decisions in different contexts. Accordingly, these decisions are likewise decomposable to final boolean decisions,
assuming all high level "decisions" are decomposable. Also note these boolean decisions are never consciously considered in first order as that requires
additional levels

Chapter 8 : Behavioral Economics
The most fascinating chapter for me was Chapter 8, Behavioral Economics, more specifically the two–part process of our brains, System 1 and System
2, the most common biases, and the two systems interaction with each other. I've always been fascinated by human behavior and thought; why we do
the things we do, what causes our actions, and why we constantly indulge in self–destructing habits and tendencies even though we have a clear
understanding of the adverse effects of those choices. Learning about the motives and reasons why we undertake these actions are very important to
me for many reasons. Mostly to reverse already previously ingrained bad habits from my child development, to have the knowledge and skills to
prevent myself from... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
So, the fact that our System 1 is accurate for the most part is great since we unconsciously rely on it heavily. However, it does come into trouble
because with any great benefits will come with side effects. System 1's process is mostly meant for efficiency and therefore not always effectively
rational. System 1 is full of heuristics and cognitive biases. Heuristics being the mental "shortcuts" we take in coming up with immediate reactions and
responses to save energy, and cognitive biases, learned and hardwired systematic errors in our judgement and thinking. Due to it being intuitive, most
of the time we are not even aware we are making these errors. A benefit that comes out of this is that the errors are mostly systematic errors. This
means that the errors, once known, become consistent which then becomes predictable. Some of the most well–known and studied cognitive biases
and heuristics are the confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, availability heuristic, planning fallacy, and framing effects. Of those, in my opinion, the
most damaging, depending on its context, can be the confirmation bias and the popular term "inattentional blindness" from the famous video the
Invisible Gorilla where participants were given a demanding System 2 task to watch people passing around a basketball and keep a silent count of
the passes. Well the researchers had a fake gorilla walk through half way and too many people had completely missed the gorilla due to cognitive

Review Of ' Vampire Bats '
1.Vampire bats give blood to unrelated vampire bats for several reasons. Among the reasons are the cost sharing of blood, the benefit of sharing blood
and the probability that the bats that were given blood will in turn reciprocate and give blood to other bats at a later date. The cooperative equilibria in
blood sharing among bats means that the sharing of blood will occur if the benefits of sharing blood multiplied by the probability that blood sharing
will be beneficial in the future is greater than the cost of sharing blood. If a bat shares blood with another bat (even an unrelated bat), the bat that is
the recipient is expected to donate blood to other bats at a larger rate than it received at a later time.
A donor bat will give blood to a bat that has not had a meal so that this bat can have the opportunity to hunt again, giving an increased chance that it
will reciprocate to another bat that has not had a meal, enabling the roost to maintain survival. In the event that a recipient bat does not reciprocate in
the future, that bat will not be donated to if it needs it in the future, thus allowing for recipient bats to be donor bats in the future as needed.
2.In the Berg, Dickhaut and McCabe (1995) study, factors that influence the likelihood of trust in economic transactions is a fundamental assumption
that individuals act in their own self–interest which is often combined with other assumptions that (1) objects of interest are restricted to personal
consumption;

Overview of Behavioral Economics Essay
Behavioural economics is the study of the effects that psychology has on the decision making of the economy. This tends to be the way that
people think and feel when they are spending money on a certain good or service. The great economist Adam Smith was the first follower of this
idea through his book "The theory of moral sentiments" which dates back to 1759. However, it took over 100 years to get a more clarified meaning
of how big of a role the psychology of a buyer plays in economics. In behavioural economics there are seven basic principles which all contribute to
the decision making process. Behavioural economics can explain how people will react to different situations such as times when there are no
economic problems and times when... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In other words most people would prefer to pay more and buy a more expensive product thinking that by paying more it is also superior to the other
products of the same category that are cheaper. However, although the phrase "you get what you pay for" might have some validity in it that is not
always the case, due to the fact that sometimes the products that might be cheaper are just as good as the competitor brand which has a higher price.
In this instant it would be logical to buy the cheaper product however most human beings would opt for the expensive product, assuming that it is of
better quality than the cheaper product. On the other hand, Dan Ariely rebuffs this claim and states, "We choose what we like, not what's best."
Sometimes humans don't make decisions based on their preferences; instead they choose what they want and that leads to a process of rationalisation
in order to get what they really want. However, they still want to give the impression that they were acting according to their preferences. Secondly,
the framing effect states that presenting the same option but in a different format can change people's decisions. Plous (1993) states that, "individuals
have a tendency to select inconsistent choices, depending on whether the question is framed to concentrate on losses or gains." A good example of
when framing is apparent is when stores advertise sale on their products. For example two stores both sell the same product which is priced at ВЈ50

Analysis Of The Certainty Of Fools By Daniel Kahneman
Fear of Uncertainty Voltaire once said, "Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one." We live in a world that is constantly
changing and does not grant the certainty that people desire. But, people want the stability of knowing what is going to happen; this is why certainty
is absurd. In his essay The Surety of Fools, Daniel Kahneman provides examples of people using a phenomenon he calls the illusion of validity.
These people strongly believe their actions cause a specific outcome, when in reality there is statistical evidence that shows their actions have no direct
correlation with the outcome.While Kahneman argues the illusion of validity comes partially from people's tendency to make quick decisions without
fully conveying the causes, it really stems from people's fear of uncertainty. The fear of uncertainty is deeply engrained within our society in academia
and in our decision making. Kahneman argues that the illusion of validity comes from fast thinking because it is "prone to doubt." However, he
neglects to mention that fast thinking roots itself in the fear of uncertainty. Kahneman begins his essay by describing his experience in evaluating
future soldier's ability in order to predict what kind of leader they may be. The researchers put the soldiers in a high–pressure environment and judged
the soldiers on their actions in a given situation. For example, one test involved eight men, complete strangers to one another, on an obstacle field and
their goal was to haul a log over a six–foot wall. The researchers took note of who took charge, who was stubborn and how the soldiers interacted with
each other. Using those observations, the researchers made predictions of what kind of leaders they believed each soldier would become. However,
follow up sessions with the soldiers showed that the soldiers may have been overshadowed by another soldier, just having a bad day or were more
outgoing than normal during the challenge. So, the follow up sessions statistically proved that Kahneman's predictions were not accurate enough to be
helpful. As Kahneman put it, "Our forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much." So, the research and observations, while they seemed to

Hollywood And The American Entertainment Industry
Since its inception, Hollywood and the American entertainment industry have had an unprecedented amount of influence over popular culture.
America has set the standard in media, and its citizens look to Hollywood not only for entertainment, but also for societal norms. Ideally, the content
being produced would place emphasis on developing complex characters from a multitude of backgrounds that diverse audiences can relate to, and
include people with different perspectives to contribute to writing, directing, producing, and acting. But the reality is Hollywood has historically
revolved around narratives written by and featuring white, straight men. This is not to say that there are not any sources of media that include more
diverse... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
However, my main caregiver was my mother, and this meant being surrounded with Japanese culture at home. Growing up in between these different
cultures and being an avid pop culture consumer has made me more in–tune to how people of color–specifically Japanese or Asian people–are
portrayed in films and television and how my white peers interacted with it and reacted to it. Before understanding how depictions of people of color
in film and television affect how audiences view race, what must first be considered is how people of color are being represented both on and off
screen. In an article discussing diversity in cultural production, Dr. Maryann Erigha, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Memphis,
presents three types of representation to examine: numerical representation, the number of people from a specific group that are working either
on–screen or behind–the–scene jobs; quality of representation, what kinds of roles are groups filling; and centrality of representation, how central
groups are to the industry's main institutions (Erigha). The simplest way of examining the numerical representation for marginalized groups in
Hollywood is to compare the amount of people from a specific group that are working in the industry to that same group's representative percentage of
the American population. A study conducted in 2014 by UCLA analyzed 172 films released in 2011 and 1061 TV shows aired in the 2011
–12 season.

Three Heuristics Of Regression To The Mean
Chapters sixteen through eighteen delve into three heuristics: the heuristic of causes trumping statistics, the heuristic of regression to the mean, and the
heuristic of intuitive predictions. All three of the heuristics control our daily lives more greatly than we realize and influence our humanity in a
variety of ways; however, the heuristic of regression to the mean caught my attention most firmly. Not only is this heuristic unique to the human mind,
but it also helps explain why we approach certain topics or ideas the way we do. The heuristic of regression to the mean helps explain what we view
as lucky vs. unlucky days. This heuristic shows that the more luck we have one day, the more unlucky the next day will seem, although in reality

The Prospect Theory, A Behavioral Economic Theory
Prospect theory is a Behavioural Economics Theory which tries to understand how people take decisions in terms of two alternatives, which have a
probabilistic nature. These decision making processes and their respective outcomes also involve risk. An important point of the Prospect Theory is
that it considers the fact that the outcomes of the alternatives are known. The basic idea behind the theory is that people base their decisions on
potential gains and losses, rather than thinking about the final outcome. The theory is of the idea that people make such decisions about gains and
losses with the help of heuristics. The theory has been very critical in its application as it tries to bring forth a model which is much more realistic in
nature,... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In the equation, xi refers to the total number of possible outcomes and pi shows the probability of those respective outcomes. In the equation w is
referred to as the weighing function for the probabilities which therefore shows that people tend to overreact to certain situations of smaller probability
as compared to larger probabilities.
MAJOR FEATURES
1) The coefficients of values are just gains and losses which are not to be confused with final wealth. 2) The model is able to represent greater
sensitivity towards losses as compared to gains.
3) The function is convex for losses that would occur out of the possible outcomes and concave for any sort of gain.
4) Weighing function helps to overweigh smaller probabilities.
APPLICATIONS OFPROSPECT THEORY
Barberis (2013) paper is a review of the applications of Prospect Theory. As some argue that the Prospect Theory only works well under a laboratory
setting, the author has other ideas to share. According to Barberis, Prospect Theory is just not well made to be directly applied. The paper is able to
trace down the various advancements that have come up in terms of Prospect

Fast And Slow By Daniel Kahneman
In selected chapters of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman challenges the traditional economic utility model by presenting the prospect theory,
where pecuniary variables are no longer the only determinants. George A. Akerlof and Richel E. Kranton support this challenge by providing two
economic analysis models that include identity as an important variable. While Kahneman focuses primarily on individuals' inability to make decisions
based on profit–determined utility values, Akerlof and Kranton emphasize that motivation associated with identity is the missing component of the
traditional utility model.
In order to demonstrate flaws of the traditional view, Kahneman supports three principles of prospect theory with various examples. First, by pointing
out errors in Bernoulli's model and the indifferent model, Kahneman emphasizes the broad range of the reference point, that it is not only the change of
wealth, but also the context and the mindset. Second, Kahneman analyzes loss aversion, one of the dominant mindsets. Third, Kahneman argue that
sensitivity has great impact on decision making by providing gambling cases of rare and risky events. With the knowledge of these three principles,
Kahneman further implies that people can be trained to against these intuitive system one thinking patterns.
While acknowledging the limitation of the prospect theory, that it fails to deal with disappointment and regret, Kahneman neglects the effect of
emotions that human

Daniel Kahneman
"We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make
them. Even when its the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision."–Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli–American psychologist best known for his works in behavioral economics, and hedonic psychology. Born on March 5,
1934 in Tel Aviv, Israel, the now 81 year old psychologist spent his childhood years in Paris, France. Given the time of his childhood, his family was
severely impacted by World War II, in which they lived in Germany controlled France in 1940. After suffering from the imprisonment and release of
his father by the Nazi's, his family spent the rest of their time ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
An example of a system two approach would be calculating the solution to the equation one–hundred and thirty four times three–hundred and sixty five.
We know if we had enough time and the ability to put forth the effort we could come up with the solution, but it will take a more laborious thinking
method. The beauty of Kahneman's career is that it comes in almost a step ladder fashion. Each one of his works builds upon the endings of the other.
Where Kahnaman and Tversky leave off in the physical nature of psychology in relation to pupil diameter they dive into the more intrinsic nature of
psychology and focus on why people think the way they do. This would lead them to their next major endeavor and the formulation of the Prospect
Theory. In which it discusses how people form decisions about uncertainty. It is based primarily on two important functions, the value function, and the
weighting function. The way people view the value of X item whether it be wealth or money is not something that we view linearly. When we look at
the graph we can see that on both ends of

Summary Of Joseph T. Hallinan
Synopsis
In the Introduction, author Joseph T. Hallinan introduces the concept of what types of mistakes there are and then with each chapter, breaks down
these mistakes to the root causes by describing the mistake and how, we as individuals made these mistakes. As the author describes each mistake, it is
apparent the constructed world that we live in, has the ability of covering these mistakes, even when, these mistakes are in plain view. This oversight,
although, is not so uncommon, as our brain seems to make things clearer and we are able to remember things that never happened, or forget things that
did happen, even though they occurred right in front of us. As he progresses through the book, Hallinan describes human beings as partial,
overoptimistic, hypercritical, downright irrational creatures of habit who are blissfully unaware of their limitations, which leads people to make many
simple and horrible errors.
One such simple type of error that he describes is the word unicorns in the place of unicycles for an article printed the Wall Street Journal. Although
both the writer and the editor had reviewed this article, the error itself was not apparent until after the prints publication. In another instance, in which a
horrible mistake occurred, happened during surgery to remove cancerous tissue from the left side of a woman's vulva. The attending doctor told the
trainee to remove the right side, although the cancer was on the left side, which the trainee was

Examples Of Hindsight Bias
"Availability Heuristic" which is how people judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from
memory lead to further biases like "hindsight bias". Hindsight Bias imply that since events that actually happened are easier to imagine than the events
that are counterfactual therefore people attach a higher probability they previously attached to events that later happened. Hindsight bias leads to
"second guessing" or Monday–morning quarterbacking and can partly be responsible for lawsuits against stockbrokers who lost money for their
clients. Another bias called "curse of knowledge", i.e. people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know. According Jean Piaget,
Development... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Strong and testable assumptions of standard preference theory like "reference independence",which imply that preferences are not affected by the
individual's transient asset position. Standard preference theory also assumes that preferences are invariant with respect to superficial variations in the
way that options are described and elicited preferences do not depend on the precise way in which preferences are measured as long as the method
used is "incentive compatible" in the sense that incentives are provided to people to reveal their true preferences.
Tversky and Kahneman(1981) tested "framing effects" in what is now widely known "Asian disease" problem in which people are informed about a
disease that threatens 600 citizens and asked to choose two undesirable options. In "positive frame", people are given a choice between saving 200 lives
for sure(A) or a one third chance of saving all 600 with a two third chance of saving no one(B). In "negative frame", people are given a choice between
400people dying for sure(C), or two–third chance of 600 dying and a one–third chance of no one dying(D). A,C and B,D are equivalent in terms of
lives lost or at risk, most people choose A over B but D over

Transocean And Bp's Eight Biases To Alter Decision-Making
Transocean and BP allowed several biases to alter their decision–making skills. There are eight decision–making biases that can take a major toll on
decision making. Also, judgmental heuristics are in effect when these biases occur. Judgmental heuristics is a mental shortcut that people use to come
to a solution quickly and process information quickly (Moisand, 2000). Of the eight biases that alter decision making, representative heuristic,
confirmation bias, and mainly the overconfidence bias. The representative heuristic is an assessment of the probability of an event happening a
certain way because it has happened that certain before (Nilsson, Juslin, & Olsson, 2008). If this issue has occurred before, it is likely that these top
two employees based their decision to do nothing off of what happened before. Also, the confirmation bias displays itself greatly within this case. The
top two employees decided to make their decision before researching what is causing the issue.... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The overconfidence bias relates to our ability to believe we are over–confident about estimates and forecasts (Kreitner & Kinicki, 2013). In this case,
both company's employees thought they were confident that their issue would not lead to a disaster, which explains why they did not take action.
They ignored the warning signs, argued over the subject matter, and make a bad decision due to their overconfidence. Their decision is an example
of Simon's normative model because their decision was bounded rationally due to their argument on the oil rig. Also, due to their satisficing decision,
the oil rig blew up and became a world disaster. There was a huge lack of timely information and a huge ignorance of the decision–making

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