This is my second lecture about experience design at HITLab i Ne Zealand. As designers we have this amazing opportunity to change the world, thus, in fact, we always design for the future and not the present. I believe that it is crucial to understand the changes that transform our societies not only from the economical or social perspective but also from the technological one. Trends allow us to see what the future could be like and provide inspiration to change it in a way be trust would be the best.

1. trend analysis
as the first step of the
design process
aga szóstek(at)gmail.com

2. where do the trends come from?
- observation of new technologies (military!)
- observation of industrial developments: transportation,
electronics, sports, home equipment, food industry, etc.
- research regarding social and consumer behaviours
(lifestyles, demographics, politics, economics,
environment)
- analysis of the public space such as bus stops, airports,
cafes, etc.
Zuzanna Skalska – trend watcher

3. aging of our societies influences
the health system
medical care moves away
from the hospitals to homes
visible change
in the health insurance policies
and also bedroom furniture standards
the current „medical”furniture
used to support elderly at home
is ugly and inconvenient
furniture producers change
the shape and functionality
of bedroom equipment

4. trend analysis is a method
to find information in
order to discover patterns

5. trend
scanning
trend scouting
trend
verification
opportunity
mapping
indirect observation
of consumer lifestyle
aspirations
research analysis
verification of
existing trends
direct observation
of consumer lifestyle
in context
substantiation
of trends
and lifestyle issues
in context
direct contact
with consumers
in context
eliciting lifestyle
aspirations for
today, tomorrow
and dreams
decoding of issues
and opportunities
identifying winning
design characteristics
generating multiple
concept directions

6. microtrend
half-a-portion:
9cm pizza in Pizza Hut
miditrend downsizing
maxitrend simple life
macrotrend deconsumption
macro- and microtrends

7. microtrend Farm to fork
miditrend ecological eating
maxitrend eco friendliness
macrotrend ecological lifestyle
influence
macro- and microtrends

8. macrotrends

9. based on:
“Creative Man: The Future Consumer,
Employee and Citizen”przygotowanym
przez
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies

10. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative

11. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network

12. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges

13. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges
workspace good quality
physical working
space
a place enabling
interesting social
contacts
a place providing
possibilities for
being creative

14. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges
workspace good quality
physical working
space
a place enabling
interesting social
contacts
a place providing
possibilities for
being creative
employee manageable loyal innovative

15. the main consequences of
the upcoming changes are:
- the end of
the abundance era
- integration of
the producer and the consumer
into a prosument

16. microtrends

17. POP-UP CULTURE
catch me before I disapear!

18. Zalando
Pop-­‐Up
Store

19. SHOWROOMING
viewing offline buying online

21. over 30% of
people worldwide
admit to showrooming
21% uses a mobile
phone to do so

22. SELF GIFTING
a gift to myslef

24. SOCIAL SHOPPING
buying together

26. MIY„MAKE IT YOURSELF”
I can do it myslef

28. SIMPLEXITY
complex simple prducts

30. trend mapping

34. how about technological trends?

35. „There is solid data from national research council saying that
every new idea by the time it reaches maturity takes about 20
years. Every technology of today has been most likely first built 10
to 20 years earlier. And tell me that it’s fast moving…”
Bill Buxton

36. It took a mouse 30 years
from the moment it was built in 1965
to the moment it became ubiquitous in 1995

37. one of the first
calculator watches
by Citizen (1979)

39. Kinect was first built in 1999
at Microsoft research labs
before it became a commercial success in 2009

40. iPronto (2001)
a commercialized attempt by Philips
to build a tablet

42. ubiquity
is not the problem,
transparency is

43. technology push – because it is possible

44. focus on the product
and the need behind it
rather than technology

45. just a shoe

46. something quite bigger than
just a shoe

51. “The true voyage of discovery
is not to go to new places
but to have other eyes.”
Marcel Proust

54. “The future is already here
it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
William Gibson

56. references
Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee and Citizen - The
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - www.isn.ethz.ch/
Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-
be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=56090
“Teczka Trendów 2014”– 4P Research Mix www.4prm.com/trendy/
teczka_trendow.html
What’s next - www.nowandnext.com
360 Inspiration Blog - www.360inspiration.nl
Trendwatching - trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/
2014/06/2014-07-INNOVATION-CELEBRATION.pdf
IDEO - www.ideo.com/images/uploads/news/pdfs/
Empathy_on_the_Edge.pdf