This document discusses various methods for analyzing and forecasting fashion trends, including investigating historical trends and factors that influenced changes, applying forecasting tools and techniques, and understanding the "zeitgeist" or spirit of the times. It outlines different theories of how trends spread (trickle down, across, up). It also describes analyzing wave dynamics and fashion curves to understand the introduction, growth, peak and decline of trends and whether they are short-lived fads or longer-lasting classics. Specific historical examples from the 1920s illustrate economic, social, technological and cultural changes that influenced fashion trends of that era.

1. Fashion trend analysis and
forecasting
Prepared by: tinsaye asfaw

2. Forecasting process
• identify basic facts about past trends and
forecasts.
• determine causes of change in the past.
• determine differences between past forecasts
and actual behaviour.
• determine the factors likely to affect trends in
the future.

3. • apply forecasting tools and techniques,
paying attention to issues of accuracy and
reliability.
• follow the forecast continually to determine
reasons for significant deviations from
expectations.
• revise the forecast when necessary.

4. Zeitgeist(spirit of time)
investigating the spirit of times To understand
directions of shifts in fashion evolution.
• people's life situations
• living conditions needs to be researched,
which has an effect upon
• past and current political
• Economical
• Social and cultural occurrences

5. Trickle theories
• trickle down
• trickle across
• trickle up

6. Wave dynamics
explains that fashion can flow, swing, cycle,
curve, and repeat. To find the suitable patterns,
wave dynamics can be applied as a method for
answering and finding a style or trend in
fashion change that has occurred over time

7. Steps for Wave
dynamics
• find suitable source of fashion images,
e.g. fashion periodicals.
• all images cannot be used in the
sample, so develop a systematic way to
decide which images will be excluded.
• standardise a set of measurements or
observations to be taken on every
image in the sample.

8. • sample the time periods that should
be used - the span of years.
• gather data and analyse to reveal
patterns of fashion change.

9. Fashion curve
In tracking fashion movement or curve it
is important to determine the possible
pace of a trend
Basic categories
• Fad
• Classic
• Mainstream fashion

10. fad
• Fad usually lasting only one
season
• Accepted and rejected
quickly
• Fads often appear in
accessory market
oversized embellished accessory
watches
Forecasters must spot a fad at
beginning of fashion cycle and report

11. classic
• Styles that take a long time to complete the
fashion cycle
• Classic, basics and staple fashion
• Slow introduction, long peak, slow decline
• Style have simple lines, minimal detail
The little black dress

12. FASHION CYCLES
• Introduction
• Rise(growth)
• Pick
• Decline
• obsolescence

13. Pendulum swing
recurring movement of style
between two extremes
The fashion swings from one
point of exaggeration and then
to the other direction, where a
trend often begins at opposite
of an existing trend.

14. The birth of modern women
The jazz age(20th century)

15. Economical change
abrupt ending with the stock market crash in 1929, that led to a severe economic
depression around the globe

16. 1920-1929 spirit of time
Social change
• optimistic about life
• healthy lifestyle
• More outdoor
activities
• Women social norms
by fighting for
equality

17. Technological change
Silent movies got replaced by movies with
sound
more affordable automobiles

18. FASHION CHANGE dress soft, with comfort and freedom of movement
The women’s independency was
demonstrated dressed
oxford bags raccoon coat

19. STYLE ICON
RUDOLPH VALENTINOJOSEPHINE BAKER
COCO CHANEL
BRITISH ROYALS

20. ART DECO
Geometric in
• Architecture
• Font and typography
• In fashion

21. CULTURAL
HOTSPOT
Egyptian cultural effect