برای تحلیل بازار املاک و مستغلات

1. !
" ! # $
1400
-
1399

2. SPACE MARKET
SUPPLY
(Landlords)
DEMAND
(Tenants)
RENTS
&
OCCUPANCY
LOCAL
&
NATIONAL
ECONOMY
FORECAST
FUTURE
ASSET MARKET
SUPPLY
(Owners
Selling)
DEMAND
(Investors
Buying)
CASH
FLOW
MKT
REQ’D
CAP
RATE
PROPERTY
MARKET
VALUE
DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRY
IS
DEVELPT
PROFITABLE
?
CONSTR
COST
INCLU
LAND
IF
YES
ADDS
NEW
CAPI
TAL
MKTS
= Causal flows.
= Information gathering & use.

3. Di Pasquale-Wheaton
#+
Di Pasquale-Wheaton (1992, 1996)
)
4 Quadrant
Model, 4QM
(
./0 10
2 3 . 456 75 . 8 9: .
;
<= > . . .
(space market)
!
(asset market)
+>! ? ! . > . @ A. .
.
CD >E F . ! ! /
G @H = I@ + FJ K I ? I@ . ! 2 8. L
@ 2
...
=
=
=

4. D . IJ K . I <= .
J K . .
)
J K MN
(
75
? 9 O >PO. ! .
:
. F R/
:
I / I ! I S
...
? L/
;9 4 /KT
? 9: + + .PO. 4+ . . U> . ! H F
.

5. 9 @ .
:
D D/
@ F A / <= . . V W
)
@ + F# 6
(
! X 4 /
:
U
; ?
+ . D
> . <= V W
:
<= Y ?U L + / Z[ . .
> / T <= V W
:
. ?Y <= J K Y > + ] ! . .
J K
! . ! !/ <= . ! D
.
? . D T ? / 8: I D . 5^
.

6. $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil. SF)
REAL
RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
GROWTH IN DEMAND
NEED=36000 WORKERS
NEED=24000 WORKERS
OVER TIME
Source: Gentler et al. (2007)

7. V ^ _ T 8
)
AT
(
75 <= . !
Source: Gentler et al. (2007)
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil SF)
REAL
RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
KINK
REAL ESTATE SUPPLY CURVE
RISING LRMC
FALLING LRMC
EXISTING
QUANTITY

8. )
(
.
! 6 . ? [W D . D V ^ _ T 8 = ` !
!/D/
;9
! F+ P = aD/ 4+ + 9. ! V 2 P = I . #! A !
D
! S D . ! + + a . b I V W P> F !/
+ F
.

9. :
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
! " # $
)
& '()
1383
=
100
(

10. # c
:
>! 1 ! ! ! ;9 .
80
>! + .
90
Source: MIT Real Estate Finance and Investment Course.
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
S1
LRMC
16
!"
#$ % &
# ' (

11. $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
S1
LRMC
16
13
(1) Expecting demand to grow from D1 to D2,…
D2

12. $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
D2
S1
LRMC
16
13
S2
(1) Expecting demand to grow from D1 to D2, developers built
1 million SF new space (Chemed Ctr & 312 Walnut).

13. $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
D2
LRMC
16
13
S2
(1) Expecting demand to grow from D1 to D2, developers built
1 million SF new space (Chemed Ctr & 312 Walnut).

14. (2) Demand stayed stuck at D1.
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
D2
LRMC
16
13
S2
But what happened in reality is . . .

15. (2) Demand stayed stuck at D1.
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D1
LRMC
16
13
S2
But what happened in reality is . . .

16. (2) Demand stayed stuck at D1 (or even fell temporarily to D0,
with recession of 1991).
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D0
D1
S2
LRMC
16
13

17. Jobless recovery of 90s (and next recessions)

18. Jobless recovery of 90s (and next recessions)
Per capita Employment
Source: Siu and Jaimovich (2012)

19. (3) Net rents fell from $16/SF to $13/SF or even as low as
$10/SF in the early 1990s.
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D0
D1
S2
LRMC
16
13

20. Change in Supply & Demand & Rent over Time
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
QUANTITY OF SPACE (Mil
REAL RENT
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
D0
D1
D2
S1 S2
LRMC
16
13

21. @ 75 . # c @ > Y
]
@] O.
[
g+ F +>

22. #)
;9 ? . .
9 @ .
:
@ + = @ + T
? ! . D T ?U L
.
+ ] ! @ D Y . . h
)
D i T
(
F
+ F + /
.

23. #) ( *+ ! ,
>! . .
)
] +W @ D
(
? $1
.
j " 1 + > ! . 456 75 . ! ! 3 .
V L
+ F ?. L . !
.
S 75 . !
:
Cap Rate

24. - . / 0 1 1
( -
2 $ ( " -3 45
6
CY
:
+ O= I 3 . + 4 Y :
) .
1398
.(
@ . ! /X $>/
.
1 I 4 W W: F
.
@ 1
.

25. The “Real Estate System”: Interaction of the Space Market, Asset Market, & Development Industry
SPACE MARKET
SUPPLY
(Landlords)
DEMAND
(Tenants)
RENTS
&
OCCUPANCY
LOCAL
&
NATIONAL
ECONOMY
FORECAST
FUTURE
ASSET MARKET
SUPPLY
(Owners
Selling)
DEMAND
(Investors
Buying)
CASH
FLOW
MKT
REQ’D
CAP
RATE
PROPERTY
MARKET
VALUE
DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRY
IS
DEVELPT
PROFITABLE
?
CONSTR
COST
INCLU
LAND
IF
YES
ADDS
NEW
CAPI
TAL
MKTS
= Causal flows.
= Information gathering & use.
Source: Gentler et al. (2007)

26. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
Di Pasquale-Wheaton

27. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
3 7

28. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
3 7

29. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

30. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

31. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
Can this be a
long-run
equilibrium
result?…
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

32. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
Can this be a
long-run
equilibrium
result?…
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

33. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
Can this be a
long-run
equilibrium
result?…
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

34. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
Can this be a
long-run
equilibrium
result?…
Doesn’t form a
rectangle.
3 7
)
4) 8' ( 9:
(

35. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R1
P1
R**
P**
C**
Q**
3 7
)
$9
(

36. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
D0
D1
R**
P**
C**
R1
P1
3 7
)
$9
(

37. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
#) 3 7

38. Rent $
Stock (SF)
Price $
Construction (SF)
Space Market:
Stock Adjustment
Asset Market:
Construction
Space Market:
Rent Determination
Asset Market:
Valuation
Q*
R*
P*
C*
11% OAR
8% OAR
D0
D1
P1
P**
R**
Q**
C**
SR
LR
#) 3 7

39. ( $9" ( !
4Q
+ 9> U . > 456 75 1. P =
)
/ ? U
k C. + F ! > / F ! Yk C. + F ! l m S >PO.
b ! Y
n ! X
(
! U .
.
! K L . I?2 1D 1. @!/. H . > ! ! I 2 ! ]! . >+ ] ! !
@
!/ + ] ! + + P = . S
.
. V W @ $> P = . 456 75 /N ! I+ ] ! P =
)
.
4 S 8. L l
(
+ S ! . V W <=
.

40. 62 $ ( " -3 45 #;, ( - 1
! "
)
100
& ' "
1372
(
, -. / 0 1!
CY
:
+ O= I 3 . + 4 Y :
) .
1398
.(
@ . ! /X $>/
.
1 I 4 W W: F
.
@ 1
.

41. 2 $ ( " -3 45 ( - - . / 0 1 1
6
CY
:
+ O= I 3 . + 4 Y :
) .
1398
.(
@ . ! /X $>/
.
1 I 4 W W: F
.
@ 1
.

42. p: price per unit of real estate space
V: price per unit of real estate capital
k: cap rate
: existing capital stock
: quantity of real estate space demand
$9 ;
4QM
)
( -$< & ( !1
DeSalvo
(
Source: DeSalvo (2017)
Demand, Existing Stock, Rent, and Price

43. : depreciation rate
: quantity of supply
$9 ;
4QM
)
( -$< & ( !1
DeSalvo
(
Source: DeSalvo (2017)
New-Stock Supply in Long-Run Equilibrium

44. ! , # $
%!&, # $
'&
!# , # , ', $
!# , # , ', $
& &!# , # , ', $
!# , # , ', $
$9 ;
4QM
)
( -$< & ( !1
DeSalvo
(

45. 3 7

46. %) = 7

47. %) = 7
#" > 1

48. - > 1 %) = 7

49. #? @ ( " 1 @ A B C?

50. D 5<

51. :
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0()1
2) 3 0()1
! " # $
)
& '()
1383
=
100
(
! " # $ % &'( ) *+