Early Churn Prediction With Personalized Interventions in Mobile Social Games (White Nights Conference Moscow 2016) The official conference website — http://wnconf.com

1. Miloš Milošević, Nordeus
Early Churn Prediction With Personalized Interventions
in Mobile Social Games

2. ABOUT ME
Data scientist at
Main focus:
• Data pipelines
• Machine learning

3. ABOUT
• Award winning gaming company
• Offices in London, Dublin and Belgrade
• Creators of

5. AGENDA
IDENTIFY
- Predict early churners using machine learning
TARGET
- Construct a personalized message for every churner

6. EARLY CHURN
• What is it?
• Why is its reduction important?
• Can we predict it and how?

7. When to engage the
prediction algorithm

8. WE TRIED 3 THINGS

9. FEATURES

10. • Best model -
Gradient Boosting Trees
• Model we use -
Logistic Regression
MODELS

11. • Optimize backend
• Target churners
• Stay prediction
And what do we do then?

12. Messages need to be
meaningful, otherwise...
TARGETING

13. TARGETING
What kind of notifications work well on what type of user?
How to find the perfect match?
Use the user’s first day activity to create meaningful
personalized notifications.

14. USER SEGMENTATION

15. EXAMPLES

16. OUR RESULTS – DAY 1 RETENTION

17. OUR RESULTS – DAY 3 RETENTION

18. OUR RESULTS – DAY 7 RETENTION

19. CONCLUSION
• Everyone can do early churn prediction
• Target with care

20. Questions?
milosmi@nordeus.eu
@mmilosevic10