Presented by Saul Friedner at the UK Spectrum Policy Forum plenary meeting on 21 April 2016

1. Socioeconomic impacts of 5G in Europe
Real Wireless presentation to UK SPF Plenary
21st April 2016
21/04/2016 Company Confidential © Real Wireless Ltd. 2016

2. Contents
• Introduction and background to the study
• Overview of the costs and benefits
• Spectrum requirements analysis
• Policy, regulatory and economic considerations
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3. Introduction and background to the study
• Four consortium partners collaborated on
EU study with the aim to:
• Provide an insight to envisaged ideal
scenarios in 2025 if Europe can maximise the
benefits of 5G
• Qualitative and quantitative forecasts have
adopted conservative assumptions. But they
focused on the optimum scenario and
maximum attainable benefits;
• All forecasts are speculative. The analysis is
probably most useful in providing an insight
to the relative differences in impacts
between verticals and environments.
Importantly, the study also identifies who is
likely to benefit.
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4. Study overview
• Gathered inputs from
workshops and online study
groups
• Areas of focus for the study
were VERTICALS and
ENVIRONMENTS
• Workshop participants asked
to answer the Big questions
on the verticals and
environments – Think the
Unthinkable
• The scenarios provided
insights into the key catalysts
and barriers
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• The team conducted qualitative and quantitative
analyses from the inputs
• Produced costs and benefits outputs for the
verticals and environments
• Produced ‘day in the life’ stories across verticals

5. Qualitative and Quantitative analysis - VERTICALS
• Critical Uncertainties Driving The Futures
• Business models – Open vs Closed
• Culture – Bottom-up changes
• Data- Privacy, Ownership. Storage.
• Trust/Control - reliability
• National/EU strategy – Clear, long term
• Spectrum - Harmonization beyond Europe.
Economies of scale.
• Disruptors – 5 year horizon
• Growth of sensor population + Big data
• Growth of prosumers
• New players
• Regulation
• Disruptors – 10 year horizon
• Urbanisation pop. Growth
• Service-driven and sharing economy
• Cyber security
• Fuel availability
• 5G deployment will cost about €56 bn.
Approx. €141 per subscriber based on previous
cost of mobile technology infrastructure.
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Verticals considered in the study:
• Automotive
• Healthcare
• Transport
• Utilities

6. Overview of the costs and benefits - Verticals
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Parties/areasthatwillbenefit

7. Qualitative and Quantitative analysis - ENVIRONMENTS
• Smart Cities - There are 468 cities with populations over 100,000 in EU28 Member States.
• Transport Improvements and Reductions in Congestion;
• Assisting Aging or Less Able Populations;
• Reduced Congestion, Emissions and Hydro-carbon consumption.
• Non-urban – 20 per cent of the EU population is employed in areas defined as rural, but GDP per capita is
only 70 per cent of the EU average (44 per cent for the EN-N12).
• Sustainable Capex Spending on Communication Infrastructure;
• Supporting ICT-dependent industries and SMEs;
• Comprehensively addressing the Digital Divide.
• Smart Homes - There are 214 million households across the EU.
• Reduced Energy Spending (€) and Emissions Reduction (CO2);
• Increased Security, Safety and Access Control;
• Assisted Living and Enhanced Medical Support.
• Smart Workplaces – There are over 25 million active enterprises across the EU.
• Better inventory controls, improved supply chain management;
• Flexible solutions to assist aging and less able populations;
• Anywhere offices;
• Reduced waste through better supply chain management.
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8. Overview of the costs and benefits - Environments
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Parties/areasthatwillbenefit

9. Spectrum requirement analysis
• Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G spectrum
• Challenging use case based spectrum requirements for 2025
• Policy, regulatory and economic considerations
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10. Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G
spectrum
• Limited quantities of mobile
spectrum available today
• Uncertainty in future provision of
access to spectrum and capacity
(5G seeking new bands above 24
GHz)
• Multiple access options;
traditional MNO, verticals or new
service providers MVNOs within
verticals or other sectors
• Access to spectrum will depend
on supportive regulatory
conditions and use of sharing
mechanisms
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Band (MHz) UL (MHz) DL (MHz) Total (MHz)
800 30 30 60
900 35 35 70
1800 75 75 150
2100 60 60 120
2600 (FDD) 70 70 140
2600 (TDD) 50 50
Total 590
Typical quantities of spectrum amongst MNOs in Europe today

11. Future capacity requirements and resulting needs for 5G
spectrum
• Determine how much spectrum
can be used for 5G from bands
identified from WRC’15
• Identify and address technical
and regulatory issues per band in
preparation for WRC ‘19
• Each bands introduces new
complexities but also new sharing
possibilities at all frequencies
particularly above 24 GHz
• First bands in Europe unlikely to
be available for use before 2020
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Today

12. Use cases for modelling spectrum requirements
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Use cases derived from ‘day in the life’ stories in 2025 to create
challenging scenarios:
• Very high multi gigabit applications – up to 200 Gbps for motorway
scenario
• Low latency, tactile internet
• High reliability and availability
Use cases quantified to establish snapshot of demand:
• Automotive/Transport – Motorway use case
• Healthcare – Smart Ambulance, 8K endoscope
• Utilities – Smart meter and CCTV

13. Parameters & calculations for spectrum requirements
• Theoretical calculations of the total quantity of spectrum needed to serve the demand:
• Subjective total demand from challenging use cases (Mbps)
• Assumed spectral efficiency (SE) for different cell types (macro/micro/pico)
• Total spectrum requirement (MHz) = Total demand (Mbps) / SE (bps/Hz)
• Spectrum requirements divided into sub ranges:
• Sub 1 GHz – wide area coverage layer
• 1 – 6 GHz – coverage and capacity layer
• Above 6 GHz (24 GHz) – ultra dense high speed layer
• Different spectrum sharing options applied to total quantities:
• No sharing (dedicated x 4 MNOs)
• Partial sharing
• Fully shared
• Results in diagram show:
• Spectrum quantities across band range
• Spectrum sharing scenario – ‘No sharing’ to ‘fully shared’
• Cumulative total spectrum between not shared and fully shared per sub band
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14. Challenging use case based spectrum requirements for 2025
• In the multi gigabit motorway case, no sharing means 56 GHz is needed, even with 100%
sharing the quantity of required spectrum is 14 GHz
• Healthcare and utilities require less spectrum than the motorway case but require other
spectrum related attributes – ultra reliability and low latency
• There is insufficient quantity and availability of spectrum below 6 GHz to support the ultra-high
speed applications – but spectrum sharing could unlock access to specific use cases to help
minimise the spectrum requirements
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Subjective worst case spectrum demand scenarios satisfying
uncontended simultaneous use for all users and devices
Unfeasible

15. Policy, regulatory and economic considerations
• Identification of new spectrum
bands
• Timing of spectrum release
• Refarming of 2G/3G/4G spectrum
to 5G
• Studying other options to free up
spectrum
• Enabling controlled sharing in ‘all’
identified bands
• Business case analysis to
understand cost and benefits of
future spectrum bands
• Understand the requirements and
challenges of implementing virtual
networks i.e. vertical MVNOs
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• Support the requirements of multi-
tenant MVNO
• The need to address regulatory
challenges
• Common framework enabling cross
vertical cooperation – network sharing

16. Contact
Real Wireless
PO Box 2218
Pulborough
West Sussex
RH20 4XB
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 207 117 8514
Web: www.realwireless.biz
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