The Final Seminar of the Project for Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk for the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal was held on 14 February 2018. The public seminar was held three times during the project. The Final Seminar, “ Understanding Disaster Risks and Moving Towards DRR and Resilience”, presented on the activities and accomplishment of the project, construction of robust and resilient society against natural disaster risk. Thank you all for your support and enthusiastic participation in this seminar. Presentation: Outline and Results of the Project

1. T H E P R O J E C T F O R A S S E S S M E N T O F
E A R T H Q U A K E D I S A S T E R R I S K F O R
T H E K A T H M A N D U V A L L E Y I N N E P A L
JICA ProjectTeam
Final Public Seminar
-Understanding Disaster Risk and
Moving Towards DRR and Resilience-
Ryoji Takahashi
14th February 2018
Outline and Results of the Project

2. 2
Background and Outline of Project
Main Activities and Results
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
and moving towards DRR and Resilience
Contents

3. 3
Background
 In 2002, JICA conducted “The Study on
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu
Valley of Nepal”. Now, urban and social
environment has greatly changed since then.
 Government of Nepal submitted a request to
government of Japan for updating seismic risk
assessment and, agreed to implement the
project in January, 2015.
 On 25 April 2015, Gorkha EQ occurred at the
time just about to commence this project and
caused severe damage both in and out of KV.
However, there is still possibility of earthquakes
around KV in the future and need to prepare.
 JICA project team and counterparts discussed the
new needs after the earthquake and started the
project from May 2015 with modification on the
project components agreed in June 2015.
Seismic Gap Kathmandu
Possibility of devastating earthquake
Damage of Gorkha Earthquake
First JCC meeting

4. 4
Project Area Hazard and Risk Assessment :
Kathmandu Valley
Pilot Activities: Three Pilot Municipalities:
Lalitpur Metropolitan City,
Bhaktapur Municipality,
Budhanilkantha Municipality
Kathmandu Valley
Lalitpur
Metropolitan City
Bhaktapur
Municipality
Budhanilkantha
Municipality

5. 5
Project Area
Project area (KV) consists of 2 Metropolitan cities, 16 Municipalities and parts of 2 Rural
Municipalities.
Total wards: 232
BHAKTAPUR
Bhaktapur Municipality
Changunarayan
Madhyapur Thimi Municipality
Suryabinayak
KATHMANDU
Budhanilkantha
Chandragiri
Dakshinkali
Gokarneshwar
Kageshwori Manohara
Kathmandu Metropolitan
Kirtipur Municipality
Nagarjuna
Shankharapur
Tarkeshwar
Tokha
LALITPUR
Bagmati Rural Municipality
Godawari
Konjyosom Rural Municipality
Lalitpur Metropolitan
Mahalaxmi

6. 6
Objectives and Outputs
Objectives: To assess seismic hazard and risk based on scenario
earthquakes with consideration of earthquake environment after the
Gorkha Earthquake, and to develop local disaster and climate
resilience plan for concrete and effective promotion of disaster risk
reduction and management measures in the future.
Outputs:
Output 1: Seismic hazard assessment based on the latest knowledge and detail
ground model for Kathmandu Valley
Output 2: Seismic risk assessment based on the results of seismic hazard
assessment, considering several earthquake occurrence scenes (date,
time, etc.)
Output 3: Formulation of build back better recovery and reconstruction plan and
local disaster and climate resilece plan making use of the seismic hazard
and risk assessment results for pilot municipalities
Understanding Hazard （WG1)
Understanding Risk （WG2)
Plan and Implement to Mitigate
Estimated Damages （WG3)

7. 7
WG2: Risk
Assessment
WG3: Pilot ActivitiesWG1: Hazard Assessment
Main Activities
BBB Reconstruction Plan
for Pilot Municipalities
Seismic Hazard
Assessment
Soil Investigation
Emergency
Response
Chronicle Survey
Standard Operation
Procedures
Building Damage and
Inventory Survey
Scenario Earthquake
Seismic Risk
Assessment
Evaluation of the
Results of 2002 Project
Construction of
Cut Model
Safe Kathmandu
Campaign
Original Components
Supplement components
Local Disaster and Climate
Resilience Plan
CBDRRM Activity

8. 8
Project Time Frame
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
13
14
16
16-1 Profile and damage survey
16-2 Vision on BBB plan
16-3 Policy on BBB plan
16-4 Action Plan on BBB plan
20
20-1 Determination of scenario earthquakes
20-2 Preliminary hazard analysis
20-3 Hazard analysis (intensity, landslide, etc.)
21
21-1 Building damage and building inventory
21-2 Development of building inventory GIS DB
21-3 Infrastructure and lifeline data
21-4 Population and social economic data
21-5 Investigation for risk assessment method
31
31-1 Earthquake occurrence occasion
31-2 Detail survey of typical buildings
31-3 Updating fragility curves of 2002
31-4 Damage assessment for buildings
31-5 Damage assessment for infrastructure
31-6 Human damage assessment
31-7 Economic damage assessment
32
32-1 Development of DRRMP
32-2 CB for local governmental officials
32-3 CB for community based DRR
33
Seismic risk assessment
Disaster risk reduction and management plan
Development of SOP
Construction of Model House
Urgent resilient and safe Kathmandu campaign
Recovery and reconstruction plan
Seismic hazard analysis
Data collection for seismic risk assessment
2nd Year
1st Year
Time Schedule
Activities
2015 2016 2017 2018
1st Phase 2nd Phase
Implementation Period: May 2015 – April 2018
Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017
Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016
LDCRP: Dec 2017
SOP: Dec 2017
CBDRRM: Dec 2017
Reconstruction Plan: May 2016

9. 9
Main Activities and Results
 WG1: Seismic Hazard Assessment
 WG2: Seismic Risk Assessment
 WG3: Pilot Activities
 BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan
 Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
 Local Disaster and Climate Resilience Plan (LDCRP)
 Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management (CBDRRM) Activities

10. 10
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Current Progress:
• All activities completed in April 2017
WG1 and WG2 Activity
Explain in Agenda No. 6, and 7

11. 11
Approach of Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Earthquake Source
Amplification
Attenuation
Total damage is mainly affected by intensity of ground motion,
vulnerability of structure and the number of vulnerable structure

12. 12
Scenario Earthquakes
Thomas Ader et al. 2012 J. R. Elliote et al. 2016
2015 Gorkha Earthquake
12
(1) Far-Mid Western Nepal
M=8.6
(2) Western
Nepal
(3) Central Nepal South
M=7.8
M=7.8
1934 Bihar Earthquake

13. 13
Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Distribution
Case WN
Case CNS-1 Case CNS-2 Case CNS-3
Gorkha earthquake
(estimated for verification)
13
150 - 200
150 - 400
150 - 200
300 - 800250 - 600

14. 14
Result of Risk Assessment
Shaking Level of Gorkah EQ (Max. Approx. Less than 200 gal in KV: Long Period)

15. 15
Result of Risk Assessment
Shaking Level of Hanshin Awaji (Kobe) EQ in 1995 (Max. Approx. 800 gal : Short Period)

16. 16
Target Items for Seismic Risk Assessment
Building Road Bridge
Water & Sewage Power & Communication Human and Economic Loss

17. 17
Result of Risk Assessment
30.6 % of total
buildings!
28.9 % of total
school build!
26.7 % of total
Bridges
0.3% Death
3.32 % Injured
42.92 % Evacuee! 36% of National GDP
What should be done to reduce estimated damages?

18. 18
Pilot Activities
• Formulation of BBB RR Plans for 3 Pilot
Municipalities completed in May 2016
• Formulation of Local Disaster and Climate
Resilience Plan (LCDRP), SOP and
implementation of CBDRRM Activities
completed in December 2017
WG3 Activity
Explain in Agenda No. 9, and 10
Activities for Reducing Estimated Damages and
promote to invest in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

19. 19
Lalitpur
Bhaktapur
Budhanilkantha
Formulation of BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan
(June 2015 - May 2016)
TOC
Promoting “Build Back Better (BBB)” Concept into
Recovery and Reconstruction Plan

20. Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)
(Budhanilkantha)
(Lalitpur)
(Bhaktapur)
TOC
Enhancing Disaster Preparedness for prompt and
effective Emergency Response Activities

21. 21
Formulation of Local Disaster and Climate Resilience
Plan (LCDRP) with Guideline
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)
Technical Guideline for formulation of LCDRP
Support for formulation of LCDRPs at
All Municipalities in Nepal

22. 22
Formulation of Local Disaster and Climate Resilience
Plan (LDCRP) with Guideline
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)
Budhanilkantha Municipality
Lalitpur Metropolitan City
Bhaktapur Municipality
LDCRP
Plan to reduce estimated damages
from Results of Risk Assessment

23. CBDRRM Activities
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017, Implementation of BBB & DRRM Plan)
Empower Community Capacity against
Disasters and implementation of Plans

24. 24
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
Who will utilize the results of the project?
Stakeholders dealt with Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management such as Central and Local
Governments, Relevant Organizations including
I/NGOs, Research Institutes, Private Sector,
Communities, and others are expected to utilize
effectively the results of the Project to reduce
damages from the estimation results.

25. 25
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
Please share with your
colleagues, friends and family
Brocure for Public Dissemination of Risk Assessment
GIS Data Map Book
Professional Use

26. 26
How to ensure to take actions by various stakeholders
to move forward to implement prevention and
mitigation measures
Needless to say but without implementation, the same or the
worse tragedy will occur by earthquakes. How to ensure to
take actions by various stakeholders are the key. Effective
measures need to be proposed having incentives to the
implementers.
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
Each UN member country needs to report Progress of Achievement
of Sendai Framework for DRR from this year
Road Map with actions to be taken were proposed and expected to
invest in DRR
Based on the results of Risk Assessment, LCDRPs were formulated

27. 27
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
7 Global
Targets
4
Priorities
for Action
Priority 1
Understanding
disaster risk
Priority 2
Strengthening
governance
Priority 3
Investment
in DRR
Priority 4
Enhancing disaster
preparedness and
“Build Back Better”
(a) Reduce
mortality
(b) Reduce
affected people
(d) Reduce damage
to critical
infrastructure
(e) Increase number of
countries with national
& local strategies
(f) Enhance
International
Cooperation
(g) Enhance Access to
the Disaster
Information
(c) Reduce
economic loss

28. 28
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
DRR Measures needs to be implemented in
effective and planned manner
Road Map List of Actions
Priority 1: Understanding Disaster Risk
• Enhancement of Earthquake Observation
• Development of Active Fault and Soil Structure
• Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Whole Country, etc
Priority 2: Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance
• Revision and Improvement of Building Code
• Guideline Preparation and formulation of Land Use and Urban Development
• Formulation of LDCRP and SOP for whole Country at local level
• Capacity building of Central and Local Government
• Promotion on formulation of BCP, etc
Priority 3: Investment in DRR
• Promotion and Implementation of Retrofitting for Private and Public Buildings
• Enhancement of Building permit and quality assurance system
• Creation of bridge design code for Nepal
• Retrofitting of Existing Bridges, etc
Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness and “Build Back Better”
• Development of Emergency Road Network
• Establishment of Wide Area Disaster Management Base
• Enhancement of Multi Hazard Early Warning System
• Establishment of Local Emergency Operation Center
• Securing Evaluation Shelter and Open Space and keep Emergency Materials

29. 29
https://www.facebook.com/JICA-Earthquake-Risk-Assessment-PJ-in-KV-
Nepal-Community-690728411055174/
Not to face the estimated tragedy, it is the
time to take actions and moving forward
to invest in DRR and increase resilience