Sustainability Challenges of High-speed Railway Megaprojects from a Systems Thinking Lens. A multidisciplinary approach to embrace complexity and sustainability in Megaprojects

1. Sustainability Challenges of High-speed
Railway Megaprojects from a Systems
Thinking Lens
MeRIT Conference 2022
A multidisciplinary approach to embrace complexity and sustainability in Megaprojects
09/11/2022
Zahra Shams Esfandabadi, Dario Cottafava*, Laura Corazza, Simone Domenico Scagnelli

2. Overview
Introduction
 The challenge of complexity in Megaprojects
 Objective and aims
Methodology
 A protocol for socio-economic and environmental impacts
 Mapping causalities: Causal Loop Diagram
 Sustainability pillars, control variables
Findings and Discussion
 The model
 Five macro dynamics & Control variables
Limitations and future studies
Conclusion
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3. The challenge of complexity in Megaprojects
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Megaprojects are “large-scale, complex ventures that typically cost US$1 billion or more, take many
years to develop and build, involve multiple public and private stakeholders, are transformational, and
impact millions of people” (Flyvbjerg, 2014, p. 6)
Iron law: “over budget, over time, under benefits and over and over again” (Flyvbjerg, 2017, p. 11)
Infrastructural Territorialization (Lesutis 2021): the scale of megaprojects is able to affect,
positively or negatively, entire regions or whole nations in the long term, by deeply modifying not only
the surrounding environment but also the social and economic conditions of the local population
(Flyvbjerg et al. 2003).
Complexity: the project complexity – in terms of life span, generated impacts, and affected
stakeholders – has to be considered during the planning, operating, and dismantling phase (OECD
2019).
• short VS long-term impacts
• Local vs national/international level
• Environmental VS economic stakeholders’ interests
• …..

4. Objectives and aims
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The main objective of this research is to untangle the intrinsic complexity of
transport megaprojects by identifying the causal relationships
among the different impacts that a megaproject generates, highlighting the
main dynamics arising from the construction and operation phases in
both the short and long term and at local and national levels.

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Methodology
Accounting protocol for megaprojects,
system dynamics and causal loop diagram

6. Accounting protocol for megaprojects,
system dynamics and causal loop diagram
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1. Identification of indicators for socio-economic and
environmental impacts
2. Modelling of a Causal loop Diagram (CLD) for high-
speed railway based on the three sustainability pillars
3. System Analysis of the modelled CLD
1. Identification of macro dynamics (short VS long term, holistic view)
2. Identification of control (external) variables

7. A protocol for socio-economic and
environmental impacts
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This research is based on a protocol for evaluating the impact of
megaprojects from a previous research (Corazza, et al. 2021).
The identification of possible indicators involved two phases:
1. Phase 1: Review of scientific literature (44 articles mainly from
Journal of Project Management, Project Management Journal and the
International Journal of Information Systems and Project Management)
2. Phase 2: Benchmark analysis of megaprojects (11 megaprojects in
Europe, North America and Central and East Asia and sustainability
reports of 21 major companies participating in these projects)

8. 8

9. 9
System Analysis and Causal Loop Diagrams
Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) have been used to
analyze complex systems and their challenges:
sustainability transitions (Struben, 2018; Kump, 2021)
and associated rebound effects (Ranjbari, 2019),
technology diffusion (Struben, 2008), and the imbalance
in the food and energy markets (Esfandabadi, 2022).

10. 09/11/2022 10
Findings
The model, five macro dynamics, and
control variables

11. 11
The modelled
Causal Loop
Diagram
3 sustainability pillars:
• Environmental, social and
economic sustainability
2 Megaproject phases:
• Construction and Operation
phases
Control variables:
• External variables not
affected by feedback loops

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The modelled
Causal Loop
Diagram
5 macro dynamics
identified:
1. Pollution and Waste
2. Strikes and protests
3. Innovation process
4. Tourism and local
culture
5. Safety and wellbeing

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1. POLLUTION AND WASTE
Short-term: the construction phase increases pollution
and waste due to the increase in local traffic, as a
consequence of the increase in the resident population, and
the transportation of materials (trucks, extraction of raw
materials, …).
Long-term: the operation phase long-term effect results in
a reduction of air emissions and dust, thanks to the
adoption of a more sustainable transportation mode.
Macro Dynamics IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
Construction phase: negative impact in the short-term
Operation Phase: positive impact in the long-term

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2. STRIKES AND PROTESTS
The increase in protests and strikes impacts on
megaproject costs by provoking delays (but the increase
in costs may positively affect national/local income).
Short-term:
• Environmental aspects: environmental concern due to
change in land use or the environmental impacts
generated by the construction phase can cause strikes
and protests
• Social issues: safety of workers and local population, as
well as corruption or interruption of public services may
also provoke strikes and protests.
Long-term:
• After the emergence of citizens’ protests, such events
may be managed through ad-hoc policies and actions to
reduce their intensity and the incidence.
Macro Dynamics

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3. INNOVATION PROCESS
Megaprojects positively affect
local/national economic sustainability both
in the short and long-term.
Short-term effect
• high technical requirements ->
attraction of non-local workers ->
knowledge-sharing with local workers
• high technical requirements ->
professional courses/universities R&D
activities -> increase in innovation.
Long-term effect
• Innovation and R&D -> positive impact
on local/national economic
sustainability.
Macro Dynamics
4. TOURISM AND LOCAL CULTURE
Megaprojects impact local culture and tourism both
positively/negatively and in the short/long-term.
Short-term effect
• increase of non-local workers migration -> disruption of
local traditions and culture -> negative impact on social
sustainability
• increase in tourism -> impact on job and local businesses
-> positive impact on social and economic sustainability
Long-term effect:
• mass tourism -> impact on local culture and tradition ->
negative impact on social sustainability
• mass tourism/non-local workers migration -> change in
land use -> loss of biodiversity/increase in real estate
price -> negative impact on social and environmnetal
sustainability

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Macro Dynamics & Control Variables
5. SAFETY AND WELLBEING
Short-term:
• Air/water pollution, waste generation ->
negative impact on wellbeing AND increase in
strikes
• construction phase -> increase in cost for safety
and health of local workers
• Reduction in wellbeing -> negative impact on
social sustainability
Long-term:
• Reduction in wellbeing -> impact on cost of
health services AND increase in strikes
• Safety and wellbeing measures -> increase in
national expenditures (national health system)
CONTROL (EXTERNAL) VARIABLES
Short-term:
• “investments in ….” -> increase in national
expenditures
Long-term
• “investments in sustainable R&D” -> reduction of
the environmental negative impacts -> increase in
innovation & R&D -> positive impact on economic
sustainability
• “Anti-mafia and anticorruption measures”,
“transparency of the project”, and “engagement of
NGOs and citizens” -> reduction in strikes and
protests
• “investment in the development of local territory” ->
mitigate the negative effect on local culture

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Conclusion
Limitations and future studies

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LIMITATIONS
• Need to validate the model with experts’ feedback
• The model refers only to transportation megaprojects (in particular high-speed railway)
• No Planning or End of Life phases (only construction/operation)
• Qualitative model
FUTURE STUDIES
• Apply the model to a case study through system dynamics (quantitative model)
• Validation of the model with experts and practitioners
• Analyse quantitatively the impact of the control variables
CONCLUSION
• Causal Loop Diagrams and System Dynamics can shed light on the complexity of megaproject
management. Further investigations are needed to develop a system dynamics model for megaprojects.
• Due to delays after any type of investments (control variable), these should be applied at the very
beginning to prevent the rise of any negative effect.
Conclusion

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• Flyvbjerg B, Bruzelius N, RothengatterW(2003) Megaprojects and risk. In: Megaprojects and risk:
an anatomy of ambition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107050891
• Flyvbjerg B (2014) What you should know about megaprojects and why: an overview. Proj Manag J
45(2):6–19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409
• Flyvbjerg B (2017) Introduction: the iron law of megaproject management. In: Flyvberg B (ed) The
Oxford handbook of megaproject management. Oxford University Press, pp 1–18.
https://ssrn.com/abstract¼2742088
• Lesutis G (2021) Infrastructural territorialisations: mega-infrastructures and the (re)making of
Kenya. Polit Geogr 90:102459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102459
• OECD (2019) Sustainable infrastructure for low-carbon development in central Asia and the
Caucasus. Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/d1aa6ae9-en
• Corazza, L., Tipaldo, G., Torchia, D.,Cottafava, D. (2021) Designing a megaproject socio-economic
impact plan: theoretical contribution, practical challenges, and managerial implications, in Robert
Kudłak, Lutz Preuss, Anna Heikkinen, Ralf Barkemeyer book titled “Exploring the societal and
environmental impacts of corporate social responsibility” Routledge, Taylor & Francis.
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