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The Future of Shipping
1.
DNV GL ©
2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 20141 Ole.Vidar.Nilsen@dnvgl.com The Future of Shipping Pori, Finland - June 10, 2015
2.
DNV GL ©
2014 The Future of Shipping 2
3.
DNV GL ©
20143 Notes: Sulphur/emission to air NOX/emission to air BW Other “New” Some of the background for “everything”: Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
4.
DNV GL ©
20144 Notes: Sulphur/emission to air NOX/emission to air BW Other “New” (since 2013) Some of the background for “everything”: Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
5.
DNV GL ©
2014 Towards 2020…. 5 Alternative fuels Beyond HFO First-movers in hybrid, battery, methanol… Energy efficient technologies Energy efficient design Improved design process Operational improvement Energy efficient operations Big data, sensors, connectivity Big data opportunities More than buzz words
6.
DNV GL ©
2014 The future fuel mix will be more diverse 6 Traditional fuel HFO MDO MGO Realistic alternatives LNG ULHFO/Hybrid fuels Methanol LPG Fully electric Hybrid (battery + fuel) Future options Hydrogen Gas to liquids (GTL) Compressed natural gas (CNG) Wind Solar Ethanol Vegetable oil Biogas Nuclear
7.
DNV GL ©
2014 LNG as fuel – nothing new, or…. ? “LNG-ready” a feasible option also for larger vessels Infrastructure under rapid development (“chicken & egg) 7 600-700 LNG-as-fuel vessels by 2020 seems like a realistic figure From…: To…:
8.
DNV GL ©
2014 Hybrid ships – a great future 8 About 35 in operation or on order (ferry, tug, PSV) Pilot projects for hybrid systems indicate 15% fuel savings, compared to conventional systems Most applicable for vessels with variable operational profile and low load operation
9.
DNV GL ©
2014 Battery – Zero emission technology for “special markets” 9 Today: 2-3 battery- only vessels in operation 2030: “Many” Battery technology is becoming cheaper and more robust Promising technology to meet stricter env. requirements in special areas Enormous interest in DNV GL’s “Maritime Battery Forum” created 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
10.
DNV GL ©
201410
11.
DNV GL ©
2014 Methanol – “More to come”, says Stena Line 11 The world’s first methanol vessel - No sulphur or particles Supply issue remains, however Conversion costs of existing vessels less than LNG-as- fuel conversion
12.
DNV GL ©
2014 ReVolt: A Vision for the Future 12 Battery powered Highly Efficient Autonomous https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
13.
DNV GL ©
2014 HYBRID FUELS – ECA compliance ok. But… 13 Ultra low sulphur fuels complying with the 0.1% sulphur limits This new fuel is rumoured to be 10-20% cheaper than MGO and available Fuel is available in several locations globally Operational experience indicate significant challenges with hybrid fuels – high focus from industry Can become a significant contributor to SECA solution depending on price and availability Price/availability
14.
DNV GL ©
2014 Innovation in energy efficient design 14 Energy harvesting Innovate hull shapes – and bio inspired solutions Design for actual conditions
15.
DNV GL ©
2014 Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory 15 Concurrent system engineering Design for actual and extreme conditions Virtual identity Team collaboration across geographies
16.
DNV GL ©
201416 Concurrent system engineering Design for actual and extreme conditions Virtual model identity Team collaboration across geographies Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
17.
DNV GL ©
2014 Energy efficient operations 17 Increased cargo capacity, adapted to demand Horizontal and vertical integration - pooling and alliances, consolidation of logistics chains Performance management – manage by numbers, benchmark, cultural change
18.
DNV GL ©
2014 Vertical integration – thinking differently about logistics 18 Door-to-door cost Carbon footprint Consolidating cargo Frequency and efficiency Getting the right ship -70% -25%
19.
DNV GL ©
2014 Digital technologies – a catalyst for smarter shipping 19
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DNV GL ©
2014 System optimization – untapped opportunities 20 Maximum 30-40% of energy available in the fuel is used Modelling of advanced data flows is becoming more accessible Used for design, retrofitting and operation optimisation of ships Sensors for monitoring are becoming more common – an enabler for systems optimisation
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DNV GL ©
2014 Smart maintenance 21 Risk-based maintenance: a more precise estimate of when a component should be replaced
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DNV GL ©
2014 Measure & monitor - Performance management will become a key driver for competitiveness Focus on: Data quality SMART KPIs Extensive filtering Automated sensor-based monitoring Improvement opportunities: Capability to optimize Improved decision support Complete overview Increased confidence
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DNV GL ©
2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com 23
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