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Smart shipping evidence cards

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Evidence and analysis summary cards for the UK Government's Smart Shipping workshop.

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Smart shipping evidence cards

  1. 1. Smart Shipping Evidence cards We used these cards for our Futures Lab with the Department for Transport in February 2018. For any queries or corrections please contact: policylab@cabinetoffice.gov.uk
  2. 2. Source: ASV Ltd, The Path to Real World Autonomy for Autonomous Surface Vehicles (2017). Image: ASV Global and Dstl; Google Maps. The MAST test system, (developed by ASV and Dstl), routinely navigates autonomously, safely and COLREG compliant, through the busy waterspace of the Solent. MARITIME AUTONOMY
  3. 3. MARITIME AUTONOMY In 2017, Rolls-Royce with Svitzer, and Wärtsilä both successfully demonstrated remotely-operated vessels. The Wärtsilä vessel, operating off the North Sea coast of Scotland, was controlled from a shore-control centre in San Diego, California, from 5000 miles away. Source: Rolls-Royce Media Press Release, ‘Rolls-Royce demonstrates world’s first remotely operated commercial vessel’, 20 June 2017; Wärtsilä Corporation Press Release, ‘Wärtsilä successfully tests remote control ship operating capability’, 1 September 2017. Image: Rolls-Royce.
  4. 4. MARITIME AUTONOMY Source: Key long-term trends – Foresight Future of the Sea Report Pose new challenges for communication at sea and the UK’s skills base Improve our understanding of the marine environment Facilitate new and more-efficient economic activity says: Autonomy and robotics will ... Future of the Trends in the Transport of Good Foresight – F Foresight, G
  5. 5. ea f the Sea ce Review Office for Science says: Source: Lloyd’s Register Report on Autonomy, 2017. MARITIME AUTONOMY We see… 2018 as the turning point in the maturity of maritime autonomy and unmanned vessels.”
  6. 6. MARITIME AUTONOMY Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030; NCCGROUP, Maritime Cyber Security & DfT, Code of Practice: Cyber security for ships. An increased reliance on maritime autonomy will increase the cyber security risks associated with commercial shipping. Impact from the June cyber-attack estimated at a level of USD 200-300m.” — MAERSK, 2017
  7. 7. MARITIME AUTONOMY The maritime industry predicts a potential global market for autonomous vessels of $136 billion by 2030, with a 10 per cent UK market share. Source: UK Marine Industries Technology Roadmap. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge. FoS pp.40. 10% UK autonomous vessels global market $136 billion2030
  8. 8. In the UK, some of the major applications for maritime autonomy will be: MARITIME AUTONOMY Source: UK Marine Industries: Technology Roadmap 2015, Cambridge University. commercial shipping hazardous environments naval applications scientific data collection
  9. 9. Through smart shipping it will be possible to optimise commercial shipping, increase efficiency gains, and improving physical capabilities e.g. increasing tonnes/day. Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030. BBC News Business, ‘The simple steel box that transformed global trade’, 9 January 2017. MARITIME AUTONOMY 1954 2016Standardisation of modern shipping container £335 £39 Cost of shipping a tonne of break-bulk goods The maritime sector has led global technological revolutions before.”
  10. 10. The UK wind energy industry is large and expanding. The use of autonomous marine vehicles for surveying and maintenance could lower costs. Global offshore cumulative wind capacity in 2016 Cumulative Capacity 2015 Cumulative Capacity 2016 THE BROADER SEASCAPE Source: Foresight Future of the Sea, Industry perspectives on emerging technology. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Norway Portugal Spain Ireland US Finland S.Korea Japan Sweden Belgium Netherlands Denmark PRChina Germany UK
  11. 11. THE BROADER SEASCAPE Existing insurance arrangements and international rules and regulations on the safe operation of ships are often predicated on the presence of a human crew on board. [I]f IMO rules specifically recognised and authorised unmanned shipping operations, even as an option, the regulatory challenge… would be significantly reduced.” Source: AAWA & Rolls-Royce, ‘Remote and Autonomous Ships: The Next Steps”, 2016
  12. 12. THE BROADER SEASCAPE [It] will transfer many seafaring jobs to land-based operations centres, opening up the industry to a new set of people who will find a maritime career, ashore, an attractive proposition.” Maritime Autonomy will require new skill-sets and working patterns. predicts: Source: Lloyds Register, Qinetiq, Univ Southampton, Global Maritime Technology Trends 2030, Autonomous Systems (2017)
  13. 13. The number of seafaring officers is projected to fall by 7% between 2016-2026, driven largely by a drop in engine and deck officers. Projected change in UK seafaring officers 2016 to 2026 THE BROADER SEASCAPE Source: Department for Transport Statistics, UK Seafarer Projections. 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 Hotel and other officers Technical officers Engine officers Deck officers Officers 7% 33% 36% 186% 26% Estimate of UK supply 2016 Projection of UK supply 2026
  14. 14. Advancements in maritime autonomy will create: Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global marine technology trends 2030. THE BROADER SEASCAPE new services and skills sectors + ample opportunity for investment in small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) £££££
  15. 15. THE BROADER SEASCAPE — PAUL SMITS, CFO, PORT OF ROTTERDAM, 2018 Speed and efficiency is essential to our business… Thanks to real-time information about infrastructure, water, air… we can enormously improve the service we provide to everyone who uses the port, and prepare to embrace the connected, autonomous shipping of the future.” Source: Port Technology, ‘Rotterdam, IBM to build AI Smart Port’, 31 January 2018. The Port of Rotterdam Authority and IBM have announced a collaborative venture to digitise all 42-km of the port to host connected ships.
  16. 16. Domestic waterborne freight has declined significantly since 2005. THE BROADER SEASCAPE Source: DfT Domestic Waterborne Freight Statistics 2016. Billiontonne-kilometres 2006 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coastwise (traffic carried around the coast from one UK port to another) One-port 24.5 21.7 5.8 7.4 2015 2016 11% 27% Domestic waterborne freight goods moved, 2006 to 2016 GoodsMoved(bt-k) One-port Coastwise All traffic
  17. 17. By 2035, UK jobs in manufacturing and assembly of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) could reach 27,400. A further 6,000-10,000 could be employed in CAV technologies. Source: Transport Systems Catapult, Market forecast for connected and autonomous vehicles. 2035 27,400 6,000-10,000 UK jobs in manufacturing and assembly of CAVs employed in CAV tech THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/ AUTOMATION SECTORS
  18. 18. THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/ AUTOMATION SECTORS Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea: Industry perspectives on emerging technologies. says: The UK could show leadership through pilots and dedicated areas of technology experimentation, as seen in car automation development.” Automation is a major interest area, but uncertainty persists over deployment timeframe and eventual industry impact.
  19. 19. Source: Extract from Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State (2011). THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/ AUTOMATION SECTORS The state can proactively create strategy around a new high growth area before the potential is understood by the business community… funding the most uncertain phase of the research that the private sector is too risk-averse to engage with.”
  20. 20. Autonomous technology is already being adopted, for example in the use of drones to inspect ships and wind farms, and in port operations.” THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/ AUTOMATION SECTORS says: Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea, Industry perspectives on emerging technologies. Image available at: https://goo.gl/7r5iZ6
  21. 21. Source: Foresight, Future of Mobility Evidence Reviews: Automation and Freight (in prep). A lack of legislation and infrastructure are the predominant barriers to large scale implementation of land based autonomous transport, rather than technological short-comings. ! ! Lack of legislation Lack of infrastructure (road signals and sensors) THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/ AUTOMATION SECTORS
  22. 22. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW There has been a disturbing degree of enthusiasm in some circles for autonomous ships, which would create massive unemployment of the world’s seafarers and disrupt the economy of the maritime labor supply countries, all to achieve a rather minor reduction in the cost of shipping.” Source: The Marine Executive, ‘Would Autonomous Ships Be Good for Society?’, 31 October 2016. Capt. George Quick is Vice President of the Pilot Membership Group at the International Organization of Masters, Mates & Pilots (MM&P). He serves on the delegation of the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF) to the IMO Maritime Safety Committee, the IMO Legal Committee and the IMO Facilitation Committee. — CAPT. GEORGE QUICK
  23. 23. Rolls-Royce predict that there will be ocean-going autonomous ships in operation by 2035. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Rolls-Royce predictions for its production of autonomous vehicles in the future. Source: Future of mobility, evidence cards. Remote controlled unmanned coastal vessel 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reduced crew with remote support and operation of certain functions Remote controlled unmanned ocean-going ship Autonomous unmanned ocean-going ship Unmanned ships will most likely start with local applications
  24. 24. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030. Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Systems The impact of autonomy on the maritime industry will not simply be technological. It will fundamentally change ways of working, the workplace, and the workforce”. Although creation of new sectors/markets will occur, smart ships and maritime autonomy may render existing maritime professions obsolete. says:
  25. 25. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea: Industry perspectives on emerging technologies. Maritime industries have been historically conservative in their approach to technology adoption, due partly to: long asset lifetimes high investment costs low margins This may constrain penetration rates of new technology in future.
  26. 26. — MICHAEL GREY In the case of autonomous ships... people need to learn how to walk before they try to run… [t]he sheer number of things that regularly go wrong with any ship at sea and which are put right by the friendly agency of a human being aboard that ship, mean that major inroads into these problems must be addressed before anyone could seriously think about taking the seafarers off. It is one thing to have all manner of clever sensors telling you that there is a bearing running hot, or that you have a hydraulic leak, or that some vital bit of electrical equipment is about to short-circuit, but what practical remedy can you offer, if there is nobody with a spanner within 2,000 miles?” Michael Grey MBE is a Fellow of the Nautical Institute. He has a long career in maritime journalism having serbed as the Technical Editor of Shipbuilding & Shipping Weekly 1970-74, Deputy Editor and Editor in Chief of Fairplay International Shipping Weekly 1974-78, Lloyd’s List Maritime Editor and Editor in Chief 1978-2009. Source: ‘Autonomy, Walk Before you Can Run’, Lloyd’s List, 20 December 2017. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
  27. 27. Norway and Finland are leading in the development of autonomous ships.” INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW They suggest that collaboration with report that: NorwayFinland Singapore could strengthen the UK’s position and business involvement within maritime autonomy. Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea Report: Industry perspectives on emerging technologies.
  28. 28. Although the UK leads in terms of expertise and capability in maritime autonomy, we are still behind the leading countries in attracting inward investment. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea Report. Attracting inward investment Attracting inward investment Expertise and capability in maritime autonomy START
  29. 29. The UK is home to innovative smart shipping companies like ASV Global, who see 2018 as the ‘Year of the ASV (Autonomous Surface Vessel)’. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: ASV, ‘2018: Increasing Adoption of ASVs at Sea’, 30 January 2018. Image: ASV Global. With major companies taking an interest in autonomous technology and beginning their own programmes, and organisations in both the commercial and military sphere desperate to maximise efficiencies, it seems only natural that over the coming year there will be an increase in the adoption of ASVs for a range of operations and applications. After all, ASVs reduce risks and cost while providing an innovative solution to challenges at sea.”
  30. 30. YARA Birkeland will set the benchmark for the application of innovative maritime technology for more efficient and environmentally friendly shipping." INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Kongsberg, ‘YARA and KONGSBERG enter into partnership to build world's first autonomous and zero emissions ship’, 9 May 2017. Yara have commissioned the development of world's first unmanned cargo ship: Yara Birkeland. The ship is expected to set sail for the first time in 2018, supervised by a human crew, and become fully unmanned in 2020. Though the initial outlay is expensive, Yara hope to recoup costs by integrating their supply chain. – GAIR HÅØY, PRESIDENT AND CEO OF KONGSBERG
  31. 31. The technologies needed to make remote and autonomous ships a reality exist. The challenge is to find the optimum way to combine them reliably and cost effectively.” INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Advanced Autonomous Waterborne Applications Report ‘Remote and Autonomous Ships: The Next Steps’. + = ?£
  32. 32. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW Source: Future Proofed? What Maritime Professionals Think about Autonomous Shipping (Nautilus Federation, 2018). Future proofed ? What maritime professionals think about autonomous shipping Almost 84% considered their jobs under threat from automation. 90% felt that cost was a major inhibitor of adopting autonomous technologies. 83% felt that autonomous/ remotely-operated vessels would not be commercially viable by 2020.” In a Nautilus survey of 900 seafarers from 12 different countries:

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