The document discusses smart shipping and maritime autonomy. It provides evidence from various sources about the development of autonomous ships and vessels. Some key points include that autonomous ships are predicted to become more common by 2030-2035, starting with local and coastal applications, and that they may significantly impact jobs in the maritime sector while creating new jobs in land-based operation centers. Concerns are raised about the effects on seafarers' employment.

1. Smart Shipping
Evidence cards
We used these cards for our Futures Lab
with the Department for Transport in
February 2018.
For any queries or corrections please
contact: policylab@cabinetoffice.gov.uk

2. Source: ASV Ltd, The Path to Real World Autonomy for Autonomous Surface
Vehicles (2017). Image: ASV Global and Dstl; Google Maps.
The MAST test system, (developed
by ASV and Dstl), routinely
navigates autonomously, safely
and COLREG compliant, through
the busy waterspace of the Solent.
MARITIME AUTONOMY

3. MARITIME AUTONOMY
In 2017, Rolls-Royce with Svitzer, and
Wärtsilä both successfully demonstrated
remotely-operated vessels.
The Wärtsilä vessel, operating off the North
Sea coast of Scotland, was controlled from
a shore-control centre in San Diego,
California, from 5000 miles away.
Source: Rolls-Royce Media Press Release, ‘Rolls-Royce demonstrates world’s
first remotely operated commercial vessel’, 20 June 2017; Wärtsilä Corporation
Press Release, ‘Wärtsilä successfully tests remote control ship operating
capability’, 1 September 2017. Image: Rolls-Royce.

4. MARITIME AUTONOMY
Source: Key long-term trends – Foresight Future of the Sea Report
Pose new challenges
for communication at sea
and the UK’s skills base
Improve our understanding
of the marine environment
Facilitate new
and more-efficient
economic activity
says:
Autonomy and robotics will ...
Future of the
Trends in the Transport of Good
Foresight – F
Foresight, G

5. ea
f the Sea
ce Review
Office for Science
says:
Source: Lloyd’s Register Report
on Autonomy, 2017.
MARITIME AUTONOMY
We see… 2018 as the
turning point in the
maturity of maritime
autonomy and unmanned
vessels.”

6. MARITIME AUTONOMY
Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030; NCCGROUP,
Maritime Cyber Security & DfT, Code of Practice: Cyber security for ships.
An increased reliance on
maritime autonomy will
increase the cyber security
risks associated with
commercial shipping.
Impact from the
June cyber-attack
estimated at a level
of USD 200-300m.”
— MAERSK, 2017

7. MARITIME AUTONOMY
The maritime industry predicts
a potential global market for
autonomous vessels of $136
billion by 2030, with a 10 per
cent UK market share.
Source: UK Marine Industries Technology Roadmap.
Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge. FoS pp.40.
10% UK
autonomous vessels global market
$136 billion2030

8. In the UK, some of the major
applications for maritime
autonomy will be:
MARITIME AUTONOMY
Source: UK Marine Industries: Technology Roadmap 2015,
Cambridge University.
commercial shipping
hazardous environments
naval applications
scientific data collection

9. Through smart shipping it will be
possible to optimise commercial
shipping, increase efficiency gains,
and improving physical capabilities
e.g. increasing tonnes/day.
Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030. BBC News
Business, ‘The simple steel box that transformed global trade’, 9 January 2017.
MARITIME AUTONOMY
1954 2016Standardisation of
modern shipping
container
£335 £39
Cost of shipping a tonne of break-bulk goods
The maritime sector has led global
technological revolutions before.”

10. The UK wind energy industry is
large and expanding. The use of
autonomous marine vehicles for
surveying and maintenance
could lower costs.
Global offshore cumulative wind capacity in 2016
Cumulative Capacity 2015
Cumulative Capacity 2016
THE BROADER SEASCAPE
Source: Foresight Future of the Sea, Industry perspectives on
emerging technology.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
US
Finland
S.Korea
Japan
Sweden
Belgium
Netherlands
Denmark
PRChina
Germany
UK

11. THE BROADER SEASCAPE
Existing insurance arrangements
and international rules and
regulations on the safe operation
of ships are often predicated on
the presence of a human crew
on board.
[I]f IMO rules specifically recognised
and authorised unmanned shipping
operations, even as an option, the
regulatory challenge… would be
significantly reduced.”
Source: AAWA & Rolls-Royce, ‘Remote and Autonomous Ships:
The Next Steps”, 2016

12. THE BROADER SEASCAPE
[It] will transfer many
seafaring jobs to land-based
operations centres, opening
up the industry to a new set
of people who will find a
maritime career, ashore,
an attractive proposition.”
Maritime Autonomy will require
new skill-sets and working patterns.
predicts:
Source: Lloyds Register, Qinetiq, Univ Southampton, Global Maritime
Technology Trends 2030, Autonomous Systems (2017)

13. The number of seafaring
officers is projected to fall by
7% between 2016-2026, driven
largely by a drop in engine and
deck officers.
Projected change in UK seafaring officers 2016 to 2026
THE BROADER SEASCAPE
Source: Department for Transport Statistics, UK Seafarer Projections.
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
Hotel and
other officers
Technical
officers
Engine
officers
Deck
officers
Officers
7%
33%
36% 186% 26%
Estimate of UK supply 2016 Projection of UK supply 2026

14. Advancements in maritime
autonomy will create:
Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global marine technology trends 2030.
THE BROADER SEASCAPE
new services
and skills sectors
+
ample opportunity
for investment in
small to medium
sized enterprises
(SMEs)
£££££

15. THE BROADER SEASCAPE
— PAUL SMITS, CFO, PORT OF ROTTERDAM, 2018
Speed and efficiency is essential to
our business… Thanks to real-time
information about infrastructure,
water, air… we can enormously
improve the service we provide to
everyone who uses the port, and
prepare to embrace the connected,
autonomous shipping of the future.”
Source: Port Technology, ‘Rotterdam, IBM to build AI Smart Port’,
31 January 2018.
The Port of Rotterdam Authority
and IBM have announced
a collaborative venture
to digitise all 42-km of the
port to host connected ships.

16. Domestic waterborne freight
has declined significantly
since 2005.
THE BROADER SEASCAPE
Source: DfT Domestic Waterborne Freight Statistics 2016.
Billiontonne-kilometres
2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Coastwise
(traffic carried around
the coast from one UK
port to another)
One-port
24.5 21.7
5.8 7.4
2015 2016
11%
27%
Domestic waterborne freight goods moved, 2006 to 2016
GoodsMoved(bt-k)
One-port
Coastwise
All traffic

17. By 2035, UK jobs in manufacturing
and assembly of connected and
autonomous vehicles (CAVs)
could reach 27,400. A further
6,000-10,000 could be employed
in CAV technologies.
Source: Transport Systems Catapult, Market forecast for connected
and autonomous vehicles.
2035 27,400
6,000-10,000
UK jobs in manufacturing
and assembly of CAVs
employed in
CAV tech
THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/
AUTOMATION SECTORS

18. THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/
AUTOMATION SECTORS
Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea: Industry perspectives
on emerging technologies.
says:
The UK could show
leadership through
pilots and dedicated
areas of technology
experimentation,
as seen in car
automation development.”
Automation is a major
interest area, but uncertainty
persists over deployment
timeframe and eventual
industry impact.

19. Source: Extract from Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State (2011).
THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/
AUTOMATION SECTORS
The state can proactively
create strategy around
a new high growth area
before the potential is
understood by the
business community…
funding the most
uncertain phase of the
research that the private
sector is too risk-averse
to engage with.”

20. Autonomous technology is
already being adopted, for
example in the use of drones
to inspect ships and wind
farms, and in port operations.”
THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/
AUTOMATION SECTORS
says:
Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea, Industry perspectives on emerging
technologies. Image available at: https://goo.gl/7r5iZ6

21. Source: Foresight, Future of Mobility Evidence Reviews:
Automation and Freight (in prep).
A lack of legislation and infrastructure
are the predominant barriers to large
scale implementation of land based
autonomous transport, rather than
technological short-comings.
!
!
Lack of legislation
Lack of infrastructure
(road signals and sensors)
THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER ROBOTICS/
AUTOMATION SECTORS

22. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
There has been a disturbing
degree of enthusiasm in
some circles for autonomous
ships, which would create
massive unemployment of
the world’s seafarers and
disrupt the economy of the
maritime labor supply
countries, all to achieve a
rather minor reduction in the
cost of shipping.”
Source: The Marine Executive, ‘Would Autonomous Ships Be Good for
Society?’, 31 October 2016.
Capt. George Quick is Vice President of the Pilot
Membership Group at the International Organization of
Masters, Mates & Pilots (MM&P). He serves on the
delegation of the International Transport Workers Federation
(ITF) to the IMO Maritime Safety Committee, the IMO Legal
Committee and the IMO Facilitation Committee.
— CAPT. GEORGE QUICK

23. Rolls-Royce predict that there
will be ocean-going autonomous
ships in operation by 2035.
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Rolls-Royce predictions for its production of
autonomous vehicles in the future.
Source: Future of mobility, evidence cards.
Remote controlled
unmanned coastal
vessel
2020
2025
2030
2035
Reduced crew
with remote support
and operation of certain
functions
Remote controlled
unmanned ocean-going ship
Autonomous unmanned
ocean-going ship
Unmanned ships will most likely start with local applications

24. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Lloyd’s Register, Global Marine Technology Trends 2030.
Global Marine
Technology
Trends 2030
Autonomous
Systems
The impact of autonomy on
the maritime industry will
not simply be technological.
It will fundamentally change
ways of working,
the workplace, and
the workforce”.
Although creation of
new sectors/markets
will occur, smart ships
and maritime autonomy
may render existing
maritime professions obsolete.
says:

25. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea: Industry perspectives on emerging
technologies.
Maritime industries have been
historically conservative in their
approach to technology adoption,
due partly to:
long asset lifetimes
high investment costs
low margins
This may constrain penetration rates
of new technology in future.

26. — MICHAEL GREY
In the case of autonomous ships... people need
to learn how to walk before they try to run…
[t]he sheer number of things that regularly go
wrong with any ship at sea and which are put
right by the friendly agency of a human being
aboard that ship, mean that major inroads into
these problems must be addressed before
anyone could seriously think about taking the
seafarers off. It is one thing to have all manner
of clever sensors telling you that there is a
bearing running hot, or that you have a hydraulic
leak, or that some vital bit of electrical
equipment is about to short-circuit, but what
practical remedy can you offer, if there is
nobody with a spanner within 2,000 miles?”
Michael Grey MBE is a Fellow of the Nautical Institute. He
has a long career in maritime journalism having serbed as
the Technical Editor of Shipbuilding & Shipping Weekly
1970-74, Deputy Editor and Editor in Chief of Fairplay
International Shipping Weekly 1974-78, Lloyd’s List
Maritime Editor and Editor in Chief 1978-2009.
Source: ‘Autonomy, Walk Before you Can Run’, Lloyd’s List,
20 December 2017.
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW

27. Norway and Finland are
leading in the development
of autonomous ships.”
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
They suggest that collaboration with
report that:
NorwayFinland Singapore
could strengthen the UK’s position and business
involvement within maritime autonomy.
Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea Report:
Industry perspectives on emerging technologies.

28. Although the UK leads in terms
of expertise and capability in
maritime autonomy, we are still
behind the leading countries in
attracting inward investment.
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Foresight, Future of the Sea Report.
Attracting
inward investment
Attracting
inward investment
Expertise and capability
in maritime autonomy
START

29. The UK is home to innovative smart
shipping companies like ASV Global,
who see 2018 as the ‘Year of the
ASV (Autonomous Surface Vessel)’.
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: ASV, ‘2018: Increasing Adoption of ASVs at Sea’,
30 January 2018. Image: ASV Global.
With major companies taking an interest in
autonomous technology and beginning their
own programmes, and organisations in both
the commercial and military sphere desperate
to maximise efficiencies, it seems only natural
that over the coming year there will be an
increase in the adoption of ASVs for a range of
operations and applications. After all, ASVs
reduce risks and cost while providing an
innovative solution to challenges at sea.”

30. YARA Birkeland will set the
benchmark for the application of
innovative maritime technology for
more efficient and environmentally
friendly shipping."
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Kongsberg, ‘YARA and KONGSBERG enter into partnership
to build world's first autonomous and zero emissions ship’, 9 May 2017.
Yara have commissioned the development of
world's first unmanned cargo ship: Yara Birkeland.
The ship is expected to set sail for the first time in
2018, supervised by a human crew, and become
fully unmanned in 2020. Though the initial outlay
is expensive, Yara hope to recoup costs by
integrating their supply chain.
– GAIR HÅØY, PRESIDENT AND CEO OF KONGSBERG

31. The technologies needed to
make remote and autonomous
ships a reality exist.
The challenge is to find the
optimum way to combine them
reliably and cost effectively.”
INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Advanced Autonomous Waterborne Applications
Report ‘Remote and Autonomous Ships: The Next Steps’.
+ = ?£

32. INDUSTRY/EXPERT VIEW
Source: Future Proofed? What Maritime Professionals Think
about Autonomous Shipping (Nautilus Federation, 2018).
Future proofed
?
What maritime professionals think about autonomous shipping
Almost 84% considered their jobs
under threat from automation.
90% felt that cost was
a major inhibitor of adopting
autonomous technologies.
83% felt that autonomous/
remotely-operated vessels
would not be commercially
viable by 2020.”
In a Nautilus survey
of 900 seafarers from
12 different countries: