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Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

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Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

  1. 1. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RISE OF THE NONES: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY OR CHANGE IN LABELING? Preliminary Draft Presented at the forum “Religion Trends in the U.S.”, sponsored by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C. Frank Newport, Ph.D. Gallup August 8, 2013
  2. 2. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 CHANGE IN “NONES”: 2008 TO 2012 Nones All Other Sample Size 2008 14.60% 85.40% 311,591 2012 17.80% 82.20% 353,571 Change +3. 2% -3.2% Gallup Daily Tracking
  3. 3. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 CHANGE IN FOUR INDICATORS OF RELIGIOSITY: 2008 TO 2012 14.60% 34.20% 45.40% 30.40% 17.80% 34.40% 46.10% 31.00% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Nones Religion Not Important in Daily Life Seldom/Never Attend Religious Services Overall Religiosity: Unreligious 2012 2008 +3.2% Gallup Daily Tracking
  4. 4. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 5 CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 TO 2012 % Nones Religion Important Religion Not Important 2008 4.00% 34.60% 2012 4.90% 41.90% Change 0.90% 7.30% Gallup Daily Tracking
  5. 5. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 6 CHANGE IN SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 AND 2012 Religion Important Yes No DK/Refused 2008 65.30% 34.20% 0.50% 2012 65.10% 34.40% 0.50% Gallup Daily Tracking
  6. 6. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. % Nones At least once a week Almost every week About once a month Seldom Never 2008 2.70% 2.80% 5.20% 13.40% 46.60% 2012 3.50% 3.60% 6.70% 15.80% 53.60% Change 0.80% 0.80% 1.50% 2.40% 7.00% 7 CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 TO 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking
  7. 7. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 AND 2012 At least once a week Almost every week About once a month Seldom Never 2008 33.70% 8.40% 11.70% 25.70% 19.80% 2012 32.60% 8.40% 11.70% 24.70% 21.30% Gallup Daily Tracking
  8. 8. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 TO 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking % Nones Very Religious Americans Moderately Religious American Unreligious Americans 2008 2.40% 6.90% 38.00% 2012 3.10% 8.40% 45.50% Change 0.70% 1.50% 7.50%
  9. 9. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 10 CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 AND 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking % Nones Very Religious Americans Moderately Religious American Unreligious Americans 2008 40.90% 28.70% 30.40% 2012 40.10% 28.90% 31.00%
  10. 10. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 11 CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION: 2008 TO 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking Protestant /Other Christian Catholic Mormon Jewish Muslim Other non- Christian religion Nones 2008 54.10% 24.30% 1.70% 1.80% 0.40% 3.10% 14.60% 2012 51.90% 23.30% 2.10% 1.70% 0.60% 2.60% 17.80% Change -2.20% -1.00% 0.40% -0.10% 0.20% -0.50% 3.20%
  11. 11. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 12 FOUR MEASURES OF RELIGIOSITY BY AGE: 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 Nones Unreligious Religion Not Important Seldom/Never Attend
  12. 12. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 13 NONES BY AGE: 2008 AND 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 2008 2012
  13. 13. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 14 INCREASE FROM 2008 TO 2012 IN % NONES, BY AGE Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 18 2022242628303234363840424446485052 54 5658606264666870 72 74 76 788082848688
  14. 14. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 15 RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION BY AGE: 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 Protestant/Other Christian Catholic Nones
  15. 15. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 16 EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT NONES AND PROTESTANTS: 2012 Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% %Nones % Protestant
  16. 16. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 17 EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT NONES AND CATHOLICS Gallup Daily Tracking 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% %Nones % Catholic
  17. 17. Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 18 For further information, please contact: Dr. Frank Newport Gallup, Inc. 502 Carnegie Center, Suite 300 Princeton, NJ 08540 609 924 9600 Frank_newport@gallup.com Details on Gallup Tracking methodology are available here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking- methodology.aspx

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