20131223 BH Report: Us Perceived Moral Acceptability

BH Report: US Perceived Moral Acceptability
2013/12/23

Summary
•I have been living in the part of US that is fairly liberal for some time, and I'm surrounded by fiends who are liberal. As a result, it became rather difficult for me to imagine that there is a large number of people out there who have completely different views from mine on certain 'controversial topics'
•Fortunately, there is a very convenient tool called General Social Survey (GSS) which is a sociological survey that has been capturing general population's opinions about various subjects since 1972... so I figured that I can get a sense on how "people's" opinions have shifted over time
•In this report, I tried to answer following questions by analyzing GSS:
–What is the current moral acceptability ("wrong" vs. "not wrong") of certain topics in the US? (e.g., gay/lesbian relations)
–Which are the topics that are controversial (i.e., evenly matched in terms of population of people approving/disapproving)? which are not?
–How has the moral acceptability changed over time for each topic?
–Do people actually get more 'conservative' as they age?
•Also, I did a bit of a deep-dive on the subject of extramarital sex (which is a very 'non-controversial' topic with large number of population thinking that it is "wrong") and looked at the statistics of "cheating"
–What % of people cheat? how does it differ from a segment to another? how does it tie to the level of satisfaction with married life, etc.

Perceived moral acceptability of various topics (2012)
-100 -50 0 50 100 %
Spanking to dicipline child
Abortion -57 43
Gay or lesbian relations -46 44
The death penalty for murder -35 65
Doctor assisted suicide -32 68
Premarital sex -22 58
Extramarital sex
-8
-82 1
23
Wrong Neutral/somewhat wrong Not wrong
1.0 : 2.7
1.0 : 2.2
1.0 : 1.9
1.0 : 1.0
1.0 : 0.7
Ratio
(Wrong : Not wrong)
1.0 : 0.08
1.0 : 2.4
Controversial topics
(roughly equal number on
both sides)
Somewhat
controversial topics
(1/4th – 1/3rd population
feels it is wrong, while the
rest think it's fine)
Not really
controversial topic
Source: General Social Survey (2012, n>800, general US population with age 18+)
Moral acceptability ("wrong" vs. "not wrong") based on US General Social Survey

Historical change and demographic breakdown of each topic

Premarital sex (I):
Historical change and Observations
70
90
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996
2012
2010
1994
2006
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1980
1978
1976
1974
1982
10
30
50
1972
% respondent
Not wrong at all
Q: If a man and woman have sex relations before marriage,
do you think it is always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong
only sometimes, or not wrong at all?
• Percentage of "not wrong at all" nearly
doubled in the last 40 years
– Higher percentage of support for
younger generations
• Religion seems to be another strong driver
(82% "not wrong at all" for no religion, 59%
for catholic, 46% for protestant)
– On the other hand, one can argue that
46%-59% are already fairly high (i.e.,
opinions are split even among religious
people)
• Given higher % of acceptance by younger
generations, the number is likely to continue
going up to ~60-70% range, but probably at
slower pace than it did in the last 40 years
Observations
Source: General Social Survey (1972-2012, each year with n>800)

Premarital sex (II):
Demographic breakdown
Religion Political affiliation Age Race
82
59
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% not wrong at all, 2012
No religion
Protestant
46
Catholic
40
59
63
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
Strong republican
Independent
Strong democrat
32
55
62
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
70+
50-69
30-49
18-29
65
55
40
20
0
100
80
60
10
30
50
70
90
Other
56
Black
White
58
Avg.
58%
Most dominant driver

Spanking to discipline child (I):
2006
2008
2010
2012
2002
2004
10
50
1994
1990
1992
40
80
1986
100
60
90
20
70
1988
1996
30
0
1998
2000
Strongly agree
+ agree
Strongly agree
% respondent
Q: Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that it is sometimes necessary to discipline a child
with a good, hard, spanking?
• % "agree" has been consistently high (~70-
80%) but it has been declining very gradually
for the past 25 years
– Seems like younger population is slightly
less accepting of physical punishment...
• Either way, no particular major segment
seems to be 'off' from the average, and so
the percentage is likely to stay at the current
~70% level
Observations

Spanking to discipline child (II):
64
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% agree+strongly agree, 2012
No religion
66
Protestant
78
Catholic
80
70 69
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
90
80
70
60
Strong republican
Independent
Strong democrat
70 71
73
20
10
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
70+
50-69
30-49
18-29
68
71
81
70
60
50
40
100
80
90
30
20
10
0
Other
57
Black
White
Avg.
71%

Doctor assisted suicide (I):
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
60
1986
1984
100
80
1982
1980
1978
1976
40
90
70
50
30
1988
20
0
2012
2010
10
% yes
Q: When a person has a disease that cannot be cured, do you
think doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient's life by
some painless means if the patient and his family request it?
• Percentage of people who find it acceptable
increased until early 90's but has remained
flat since then
• Likely, this is because people are fairly evenly
split among different demographic segments
(e.g., religion, political affiliation, age, race)
and that it mostly comes down to each
individual's personal belief, rather than a
view driven by any particular segments **
see next page for data
• I would imagine that, therefore, this will not
change anytime soon – and remain around
~60-70% range
Observations

Doctor assisted suicide (II):
60
63
100
80
60
40
20
0
90
50
30
10
70
% yes, 2012
No religion
88
Protestant
Catholic
64
75
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% yes, 2012
Strong republican
56
Independent
Strong democrat
75
0
10
30
50
70
90
100
80
60
40
20
70+
58
50-69
68
30-49
68
18-29
% yes, 2012
49
72
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% yes, 2012
Other
68
Black
White
Avg.
68%

The death penalty for murder (I):
70
90
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996
2012
2010
1994
2006
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1980
1978
1976
1974
1982
10
30
50
% favor
Q: Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons
convicted of murder?
• It slightly gained more support through 80's
and early 90's, but then the rate has been
declining for the past 15 years
• Looking at segments – differences among
political affiliation is astonishing (89%
support by strong republican vs. 51%
support by strong democrat)
• Seeing that younger generations have lower
% "favor", the percentage is likely to remain
at its current level, or slightly decline to
~60% level
Observations

The death penalty for murder (II):
62 63
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% favor, 2012
No religion
Protestant
67
Catholic
89
62
51
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% favor, 2012
Strong republican
Independent
Strong democrat
61 61
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50-69
67
30-49
67
18-29
% favor, 2012
70+
70
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% favor, 2012
Other
57
Black
48
White
Avg.
65%

Gay or lesbian relations (I):
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
0
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
100
80
60
40
20
10
30
50
70
90
% not wrong at all
Q: What about sexual relations between two adults of the same
sex? [choices: always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only
sometimes, or not wrong at all]
• Significant increase of "% not wrong at all"
since 1990
– Unclear what was the exact driver
behind this... perhaps the homophobia
from the fear of AIDS was eased with
better understanding/ education? were
there series of rallies that helped change
peoples' views?
• Clear correlation with age (next page)- and
so, "% not wrong at all" is likely to continue
going up
• That being said, it is probably going to
stagger at some point (perhaps ~60%)
– Even the age group 18-29 only has ~60%
"not wrong at all" (religion/political
views will cap the change?)
Observations

Gay or lesbian relations (II):
69
30
50
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
No religion
Protestant
Catholic
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
Strong republican
25
Independent
47
Strong democrat
48
23
39
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
70+
50-69
30-49
46
18-29
59
29
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
Other
36
Black
White
48
Avg.
44%

Abortion (I):
60
40
0
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
10
30
50
70
1976
20
100
80
90
Yes
% yes
Q: Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible
for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if the woman
wants it for any reason?
• No observable long term trends
• Political affiliation seems to be the biggest
driver (Strong republican 21% "yes" vs.
strong democrat 56%)...
• ... at the same time, it also seems that some
% of people just don't accept it regardless of
segments
– "No religion" is usually the segment who
is most socially liberal, but even the
segment only has the 63% "yes"
• Therefore, the percentage will likely remain
between current 40-50% range
Observations

Abortion (II):
63
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% yes, 2012
No religion
Protestant
37
Catholic
38
21
44
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% yes, 2012
Strong republican
Independent
Strong democrat
56
30
44 43
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
% yes, 2012
70+
50-69
30-49
46
18-29
44 42
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
30
50
70
90
White
% yes, 2012
Other
38
Black
Avg.
43%

Extramarital sex (I):
20
10
0
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
2000
1998
1996
2004
1992
100
90
1994
80
70
60
50
40
30
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
% not wrong at all + sometimes wrong
Q: What is your opinion about a married person having sexual
relations with someone other than the marriage partner? [choices:
always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or
not wrong at all]
• Long term decline in % "wrong": ~15% in
1973 vs.~7% today
– It was more socially acceptable/
expected back in the days?
Observations

Extramarital sex (II):
4
12
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% not wrong at all + sometimes
wrong, 2012
No religion
Protestant
Catholic
7
3
11
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Independent
8
Strong democrat
wrong, 2012
Strong republican
3
20
10
0
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
70+
50-69
8
30-49
8
18-29
5
wrong, 2012
11
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
wrong, 2012
5
White
7
Other
Black
Avg.
7%

Do people actually get more 'conservative' as they age?

No strong evidence that people become more
conservative as they age
Thinks premarital sex is "okay" Thinks gay or lesbian relations is "okay"
1980
1978
1976
1974
1982
1972
100
90
80
70
20
1994
1998
2000
10
60
2004
50
40
0
1990
2006
30
2008
2012
2002
1992
2010
1988
1986
1984
1996
% not wrong at all + sometimes wrong
1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s
Segment by birth year
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2012
2010
2006
2004
2002
2000
2008
1996
1994
1992
1990
1998
% not wrong at all
People born in 1940's remain in
60-70% range over the course of
~40 years (age ~30's-70's)
People born in 1950's showed decline from
80% to 70% over the course of ~40 years...
which doesn't seem much (age ~20's-60's)
% "not wrong at all" went up for all segments
of people starting 1990 implying that a same
person could have potentially changed
opinions over time

Deep-dive on 'Extramarital Sex': Statistics of "cheating"

Summary on the statistics of "cheating"
Question
What percentage of people "cheated" at least once while being married?
What percentage of married people cheated last year?
Is it true that people are more likely to cheat when they are older?
Is it true that people cheat even when they think it is bad?
Is it true that the people who cheat are more likely to be unhappy with marriage?
Stats based on GSS
17%
Male: 21% (1 out of 5)
Female: 13% (1 out of 8) 2.9%
Male: 3.7% (1 out of 27)
Female: 2.2% (1 out of 45) No – in fact, quite the opposite
18-24 age group male ~2x likely to cheat than 40-49 age group
The ratio even more exaggerated for women (~4x) Yes
12% of people who answered "always wrong" has cheated at least once Yes (but some people still cheat even when they are happily married)
"Not happy with marriage" had ~7x higher rate of cheating last year (13%) than "Very happy" (2%)
Thoughts
Honestly, I'm not sure whether I should think that these figures are too high or too low...
By the way, multiplying 2.9% to # of married people in US (~1.2 billion) implies ~3.5 million cheaters last year... wow
This was a bit surprising at first... looks like "cheating" is not necessarily just a result of long marriage
I suppose it is one of those things people end up doing even when they know that it is "wrong"
13% for "not happy" gives me hope that people don't immediately resort to cheating even when they are dissatisfied
What I don't quite get is the motivation behind 2% of "very happy" people who still cheat...
1
2
3
4
5
Note: "Cheating" here defined as having sex with a person other than husband or wife while being married (regardless of circumstances)
Source: General Social Survey (2002-2012 – selected multiple years to increase the sample size and the reliability of the analysis)
Caveat: this is based on General Social Survey (self-reported) so numbers could very well be underreported

Back-up: Is it true that people are more likely to
cheat when they are older?
3
Male Female
0.8
3.2
1.5
6.1 5.8
7.8
5
10
0
15
% respondent who have had sex with someone other than
husband or wife while being married (last year)
18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
4.3
0.4
1.0 0.8
2.0
3.8
11.8
3.0
15
10
5
0
% respondent who have had sex with someone other than
husband or wife while being married (last year)
18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Avg.
2.2%
Avg.
3.7%

Back-up: Is it true that people cheat even when they
think it is bad?
42
12
50
40
30
20
10
0
% respondent who have had sex with someone other than husband or wife while being married
(at least once in lifetime)
Always wrong Almost
always wrong
29
Sometimes wrong
28
Not wrong at all
Q. What is your opinion about a
married person having sexual
relations with someone other than
the marriage partner?
83% 11% 5% 1%
4
Avg.
17%

Avg.
2.9%
Back-up: Is it true that the people who cheat are
more likely to be unhappy with marriage?
13
4
2
20
10
0
% respondent who have had sex with someone other than husband or wife while being married
(last year)
~7x
Very happy Pretty happy Not too happy
Q. Taking all things together, how
would you describe your
marriage? 63% 35% 3%
5

Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.

20131223 BH Report: Us Perceived Moral Acceptability

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