20210216 lezing jones_welkom in het antropoceen_udll_mechelen_webinar-solutions
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Lezing Dr. Peter Tom Jones (SIM² KU Leuven) voor UDLL, Mechelen, 20210216). Topic: Welkom in het Antropoceen - Over(leven) bnnen planetaire grenzen. Over de "global ecosystem breakdown" en de mogelijke uitwegen uit de crisis. Over Business As Usual vs. een gedegen transitiebeleid naar een klimaatneutrale, veerkrachtige circulaire economie.
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20210216 lezing jones_welkom in het antropoceen_udll_mechelen_webinar-solutions
- 1. (Over)leven binnen planetaire grenzen Dr. Ir. Peter Tom Jones (SIM² KU Leuven), UDLL, 16-02-2021 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 1
- 3. Sir David Attenborough “… if we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon” (Katowice, VN Klimaatconferentie-COP24, December 2018) 17/12/2019 Jones - KU Leuven 3 2018
- 4. Jones - KU Leuven 4 09/09/2019 Stockholm, 8 Februari 2019 25 January 2019, WEF, Davos 2019
- 5. "Only if humanity acts quickly and resolutely can we limit global warming, halt the ongoing mass extinction of animal and plant species, and preserve the natural basis for the food supply and well-being of present and future generations. This is what the young people want to achieve. They deserve our respect and full support.“ (Science, 2019: getekend door meer dan 3,000 wetenschappers) Jones - KU Leuven 5 09/09/2019 2019
- 6. In juni 2019 roept de Paus de klimaatnoodtoestand uit 09/09/2019 Jones - KU Leuven 6
- 7. Het Europees Parlement volgt in november 2019 2/12/2019 Jones - KU Leuven 7 Source: The Guardian, 28-11-2019
- 9. Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 9 “We live in the midst of a pandemic, but climate change is just as much of a crisis as it was before. (…) This is not a time to be silent.” The Guardian, 21 September 2020 Vandaag… Pre-corona
- 11. "We must remember there is no vaccine to fix our changing climate. (…) I am deeply concerned that in domestic stimulus plans dirty measures that increase carbon emissions outnumber green initiatives by four to one” (Ban-Ki Moon, Climate Adaptation Summit, January 2021) 2/18/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 11
- 13. We leven niet in een “tijdperk van verandering” dan wel in een “verandering van [geologisch] tijdperk” Cf. Jan Rotmans, Verandering van tijdperk, 2014 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 13
- 14. 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source infographic: Steffen et al., 2005 [IGBP] 14
- 15. Welkom in het Antropoceen The Great Unraveling 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 15
- 16. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009 16
- 17. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009 9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire grenzen 17
- 18. 25% van de wereldbevolking lijdt aan waterstress Source: WRI, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 18
- 19. België (lees: Vlaanderen) staat op nr. 23 in de waterstress-rangorde Source: WRI, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 19
- 20. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009 9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire grenzen 2 kengrenzen (core planetary boundaries): • Biosfeerintegriteit • Klimaatverandering 20
- 21. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009 9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire grenzen 2 kengrenzen (core planetary boundaries): • Biosfeerintegriteit • Klimaatverandering BIO BIO 21
- 22. 1 miljoen soorten worden met uitsterven bedreigd (UN IPBES, 2019) “The biosphere, upon which humanity as a whole depends, is being altered to an unparalleled degree across all spatial scales. Biodiversity (…) is declining faster than at any time in human history.” (6-5-2019, SFP- IPBES, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 BIO BIO 22
- 23. Source: SFP IPBES, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 23
- 27. 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 27 “Because of the way things have been going in the world, it’s more likely we’ll have zoonotic infections causing outbreaks in the future” (…) Greater population density, greater travel, deforestation – all of these things make it more likely that these outbreaks will happen and then something will spread.” Prof. Sarah Gilbert, Oxford University (August 30, 2020, The Independent) Source: The Guardian, 17-6-2020
- 28. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009 9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire grenzen 2 kengrenzen (core planetary boundaries): • Biosfeerintegriteit • Klimaatverandering CLI 28
- 29. Mondiale broeikasgasuitstoot blijft stijgen (i.p.v. te dalen) Source: Guardian Graphic based on data from Global Carbon Project CLI Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 29
- 30. Wat is de impact van COVID-19 op de uitstoot van broeikasgassen? 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 30 Source: J. Tollefson, Nature, 2021 CLI
- 31. Some animals are more equal than others… Source: The Guardian, 21-9-2020 CLI Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 31
- 32. IPCC SRCCL (2019) toont opwarming atmosfeer… Source: SPM Figure 1, IPCC SRCCL (2019) Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 32 CLI
- 33. IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties voor stijging zeeniveau… Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019) Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 33
- 34. IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties voor stijging zeeniveau… Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019) Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 34
- 35. Thomas Slater: “Although we anticipated the ice sheets would lose increasing amounts of ice in response to the warming of the oceans and atmosphere, the rate at which they are melting has accelerated faster than we could have imagined” Lead author “Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections”, Nature Climate Change, 2020. 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 35 Source: The Independent, September 2, 2020
- 36. IPCC SR15 (2018) toonde aan waarom zelfs 2°C opwarming te veel is Source: Figure 3.20, IPCC SR15 [Special Report Global Warming of 1.5 ºC] Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C” (Paris Agreement, 2015) 36
- 37. Review in Science bevestigt de noodzaak om opwarming beneden 1.5°C te houden Source: Hoegh- Guldberg et al., Science, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C” (Paris Agreement, 2015) 37
- 38. Opwarming van meer dan 1,5°C brengt de SDGs in gevaar! Source: Hoegh- Guldberg et al., Science, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 38
- 39. Gemiddelde (atmosferische) temperatuur 2020 was al + 1.25°C (t.o.v. pre- industriële temperatuur) 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 39
- 40. En… we zitten op koers richting opwarming van 3°C tegen 2100 Source: Climate Action Tracker Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 40
- 42. De hamvraag: is er een planetair kantelpunt? Source: Lenton et al., Nature, 2019 Jones - KU Leuven 42 17/12/2019
- 43. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting “Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand? Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 43
- 44. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting “Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand? Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “(..) the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions—Hothouse Earth. (…) a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed. Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only decades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, (…). 44
- 45. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting “Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand? Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “(..) the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions—Hothouse Earth. (…) a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed. Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only deacades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, (…). 45
- 46. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting “Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand? Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “(..) the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions—Hothouse Earth. (…) a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed. Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only decades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, (…). 46
- 48. Het alternatief: planetair rentmeesterschap The Great Turning 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 48
- 49. Naar een “Stabilized Earth” systeemtoestand? Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 49
- 50. Planetair rentmeesterschap → “Stabilised Earth” toestand Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires deliberate management of humanity’s relationship with the rest of the Earth System (..). We suggest that a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorientation of human values, equity, behavior, institutions, economies, and technologies is required.” 50
- 51. Planetair rentmeesterschap → “Stabilised Earth” toestand Source: Steffen et al., PNAS, 2018 Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 “The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires deliberate management of humanity’s relationship with the rest of the Earth System (..). We suggest that a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorientation of human values, equity, behavior, institutions, economies, and technologies is required.” 51
- 52. Leven binnen planetaire grenzen 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 52 Source: Adaptation of Steffen et al., Science, 2015 - Update from Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
- 53. Transitie naar rechtvaardige duurzaamheid & regeneratieve economie 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 53 Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist, 2017
- 55. Ingrediënten voor een ernstig klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid 140 onderzoekers 120 pagina’s 27 maatregelen Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl [Kernpanel voor Klimaat en Duurzaamheid, 14-5-2019] 55
- 56. Ingrediënten voor een ernstig klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid Klimaatneutrale energie en industrie Samenlevings -opbouw Natuurlijke ecosystemen beschermen en uitbreiden Omslag in landgebruik voor wonen, mobiliteit & voeding Duurzame productie en consumptie Samenhangend beleid Wetenschap & innovatie 140 onderzoekers 120 pagina’s 27 maatregelen Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl 56
- 57. Technology alone will not save us…. 140 researchers 120 pages 27 measures https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl Jones - KU Leuven 57 2/12/2019 Source: LPR 2014, WWF
- 58. Maar is wel nodig… 2/12/2019 Jones - KU Leuven 58 New battery technologies for e-mobility & energy storage New resource- efficient e-motors for bikes, buses, cars & ships Carbon Capture and Utilisation Biobased, recyclable plastics Magnetic cooling devices Advanced solar cells & CSP Hydrogen steelmaking Electrification of metallurgy Climate-neutral cement
- 59. Cleantech wordt steeds goedkoper 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven 59 Emissions Gap Report, 2019 (UNEP)
- 60. Cleantech levert (lokale) jobs op… 18/02/2021 Jones - KU Leuven McKinsey, 2012 60
- 61. Lokale secundaire voordelen van regeneratieve economie Gezonde lucht en minder lawaai & “waterslimme”, leefbare steden Nieuwe jobs in cleantech en andere sectoren Veerkracht en sociale cohesie Verminderde materialen- en energie-afhankelijkheid Terugverdieneffecten en vermeden kosten Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 61
- 62. Contact: Peter Tom Jones (KU Leuven) - peter.jones@kuleuven.be [Book: P.T. Jones & V. De Meyere, Terra Reversa, De Transitie naar rechtvaardige duurzaamheid, EPO, 2016.] Jones - KU Leuven 18/02/2021 Dank voor de aandacht 62