SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 77
Download to read offline
1
Climate Change: Reasons for a green, steady, and
sustainable global economy.
By Justin Singleton
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the Bachelors of Arts degree schoolof
natural science, Hampshire College, Amherst, MA.
May 2015
Committee Chair: Professor Dulasiri Amarasiriwardena
Committee Member: Professor William Ryan
2
Acknowledgement:
I want to give a special thanks to Professor Dulasiri for his unconditional support
throughout my time here at Hampshire College. The amount of dedication shown to me is
unparalleled and not once did he give up on me nor shun me away. The encouragement
provided by Professor Dula allowed for me to complete my division three project with
much clarity and ease. I am forever grateful for the helping hand that Dula has lent out to
me and I will take what he has taught me and apply it everywhere I go for the rest of my
life.
I would also like to give a special thanks to Professor Will Ryan for his support as
my writing instructor and another mentor of mine. His down to earth style and passion for
me as a writer was shown throughout my years at Hampshire College. He taught me how
to write different kinds of papers whether it be scientific research or material given out in
class, either way I was able to complete all the tasks at hand. I am very grateful to have
Will Ryan as a committee member and someday we should go on a fishing trip!
Last but not least, I want to thank the James Baldwin Program for bringing me to
Hampshire and treating me as an individual. The support system is phenomenal filled
with people who share similar backgrounds as I do and come from different walks of life.
Without the help of Madeline Marquez and Karina Fernandez none of this would have
been possible. I am forever thankful for their sincerity and support.
3
Table of Contents:
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Climate Change: The scientific analysis
2.1.1- Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide
2.1.2- Methane
2.1.3- Nitrous Oxide
2.1.4 Ozone
2.1.5- Water Vapor
Chapter 3: Case Study Diesel Exhaust
Chapter 4: Climate Change Impacts
4.1.1: Rising Surface Temperatures
4.1.2: Drought/Desertification
4.1.3: Sea Level Rise
4.1.4: Ocean Acidification
4.1.5: Loss of Biodiversity/ Ecosystem Services
4.2: Social Impact of Climate Change
4.2.1: Energy
4.2.2: Food and Water
4.2.3: Health
4.2.4: Population growth/Poverty
4.3: Economic Impact of Climate Change
4.3.1: Agriculture
4.3.2: Climate Insurance
4.3.3: Infrastructure
4.4: Politics Of Climate Change
Chapter 5: The Green Economy and Solutions
4
Abstract
This dissertation investigates the long and short-term impacts of climate change
from an environmental, social, economic, and political perspective. This work also
incorporated the findings of my summer research internship at Washington State
University regarding the effects of diesel exhaust emissions on atmospheric chemistry
and climate change. Two engine types were compared: a 5.5 kW diesel generator
operated with no electrical load without a catalytic converter, and a 2004 Chevy
Silverado gasoline truck operating without a catalytic converter. Emitted NOx, CO, and
CO2 concentrations were measured using flow-tube connected to the combustion
chamber. The preliminary results demonstrate diesel truck with a catalytic converter
produced elevated levels of NOx, CO and CO2. Under the influence of UV light, steady
pre NOx levels were plummeted but O3 levels were increased while CO2 levels were
dropped. It appears the diesel generator with catalytic converter burns efficiently with
lower global warming gases and fewer photo-induced chemicals. Along with the results
of this case study, I then looked at the broader perspectives and offered solutions on how
we can mitigate climate change by advocating for a switch to a green, steady and
sustainable economy; one in which we can decrease our carbon dioxide emission, while
lifting the quality of life for all humans bringing enormous benefits to planet earth and its
inhabitants.
5
Chapter 1. Introduction
Planet earth-our home-has a very frightening future, there is really no other way
to put it. The planet’s temperature is currently increasing with a general consensus
amongst scientist that this increase is primarily due to human activities. Our primary
sources of energy-- coal, oil, and natural gas— are the Achilles heel of the global
economy because we rely too heavily on them. The combustion of these fuels, and our
over reliance on them is influencing the composition of the earth’s atmosphere; adding
more heat trapping gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane into the
atmosphere. It’s no secret our fossil fuel reserves will inevitably become exhausted
because supply and the availability of these resources will soon steadily decrease all the
while the demand for more energy is projected to increase. If this increase in energy
consumption rises very rapidly without readily available substitutions, we are
jeopardizing or even killing a future for the generations after.
In 2007, scientists warned that we have less than a decade left to head off climate
change. Now it seems that even those dire forecasts went unheard: Recent evidence
shows that the climate is changing much more quickly than predicted just a few years
ago. And it’s not just the climate. From acidifying oceans to depleted aquifers, the natural
systems we depend upon are nearing “tipping points,” beyond which they may not
recover. A future climate that we haven’t seen since our existence will most certainly
have dramatic effects on the quality of living today, and what we do today to mitigate the
worst effects, will most certainly impact future generations.
6
The purpose of this paper is to show that we can most certainly combat climate
change by changing the activities we do that causes the warming problem in the first
place. It isn’t humanity per se that is causing global warming but our actions that are
influencing this change. Changing human behavior in a way that benefits earth can very
likely influence how future societies develop. Within this thesis each section will be
divide into chapters and sub chapters acknowledging the complexities of climate change,
how it will impact us, and what we can do to save our futures.
In chapter two, the science of climate change must be analyzed in such a way that
provides us with some clues for how to proceed. Various questions like, what are the
gases that contribute to climate change? Where do they come from? And how do they
absorb or reflect? These are questions that we will address. There will be a case study--
primary research done at Washington State University-- around the impacts of diesel
exhaust for example on atmospheric compositions, and its influence on climate change
and public health. This intends to display how dynamic and interconnected the planet
systems are, how they influence one another and what it means for humanity. An
understanding of the greenhouse effect, and how it acts, as a thermostat regulating the
temperature of the earth must be explored further because of our actions in adding
climate-changing gases into the atmosphere. The earth system is so dynamic with many
interactions, interrelationships, and feedbacks that scientist even admit that they do not
fully understand everything about the earth. But what we can do is start by picking it
apart, then put it back together like a puzzle, and that is what we will be doing to
understand climate change and its impacts.
7
The various relationships within and between the atmosphere, landmasses, and the
oceans will be analyzed. These interactions support one another and start to explain how
climate change is impacting the planet. Cycles such as the carbon, water, and nitrogen
cycle are necessary for the earth to replenish itself. The relationships may be altered
because of excess greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere, and understanding how this
will influence climate change is crucial. The transport of nutrients, heat, and vital needs
of plants depend the interrelationship within and between these cycles.
As we increase the concentration of carbon dioxide, other greenhouses gases, and
continuously degrade our environment; it may affect the relationship between the
geophysical and geochemical process. Adding more carbon dioxide—a greenhouse—gas
to the atmosphere we would then add more water vapor into the atmosphere resulting in
more warming. Cutting down our forest, too, adds more carbon dioxide into the air
undermining the job trees have to absorb carbon dioxide. As a consequence, climate
change will send rippling effects through the fabric of our society with short and long
term changes; and the four perspectives mentioned above will show portray this
occurring.
Chapter three will discuss the various perspectives of analyzing climate change
such as environmental, social, economic, and political. I will be looking at reports from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and incorporating their data into
this dissertation. Each perspective is to show how climate change will affect society as a
whole with some even overlapping. Chapter 3.1 will explore climate change from an
environmental perspective analyzing the long-term and short-term changes that are
expected to occur because of human activity. Oceanic and land surface impacts,
8
pollution exacerbation, sea level rise and other related effect are environmental issues
that we all face today and in the foreseeable future. 3.2 will discuss the social
implications from global warming and I will discuss food production and accessibility,
mass migrations, impacts on livelihoods, and who in particular may be most vulnerable to
the wrath of climate change. Chapter 3.3-will discuss the economic impacts of climate
change. This will show what the current cost of climate change and what will be lost
throughout various sectors of the global economy-- whether from agriculture,
infrastructure, and even people jobs. And chapter 3.4 will discuss the political impact of
climate change because the politics is very important when making climate change
decisions and a deeper acknowledgement of a gap between science and policy at the
governmental level. We will analyze how environmental decisions are made, who makes
them, and how do they influence the global economy.
Lastly, Chapter four advocated for a greener, steady and sustainable economy that
encompasses humans and nature; but it isn’t easy. Using renewable resources like solar,
wind, geothermal, tidal movement and many other potential candidates can have a major
influence on mitigating climate change. Promoting equity and equality can eradicate
poverty and is simply central to a sustainable economy. The intent is to make the
transition as smooth and easy as possible because there is a huge opportunity in cleaning
up our acts and living within the means of the earth. We need an economy that doesn’t
operate on dirty fuels. We want one that can promote living within the means of the earth.
There are many questions that we must ask ourselves such as; can we combat climate
change and protect future generations? What changes does humanity needs to make in
order to adapt or at least become more resilient than we are now? And lastly, can
9
combating climate change help humanity overcome its immediate social disparities like
racism, classism, and gender marginalization? Looking at developed, developing and
under-developed nations will be critical when talking about whom in particular will face
the brunt of climate change for the foreseeable future. These are questions that certainly
needs attention and this paper intends to unravel climate change, its impacts, and how it
is possible that fundamental changes are needed are all levels of society. Now, it is
important that we note that not every place around the world will feel similar climate
effects; some places may do a bit better in a warmer world while others may not. Most of
the environmental changes that are happening around the world are becoming
irreversible, unless quick and swift action is taken.
The environment may often be taken for granted because of the services they
provide as if it will never end and can always replenish itself. Although some resources
can be replenished but it will take a long time to do that, while others cannot be
replenished. However, the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases can alter
environmental balances and disrupts its functionality. Natural and managed resources and
systems, and their uses all have the potential to be altered. Regional and global changes
in the earth’s surface would come at a major cost to the very inhabitants who depend on
it.
10
Humanity is already known to have a primary hand in global climate change. But
how will these changes in the climate and the environment affect society as a whole?
There are a few sectors we should urgently look at, such as water scarcity, energy
availability, health and social services, food, and infrastructure. These are problems that
nations all over the world will have to address at sometime in the future and it doesn’t
stop there.
We should keep an eye on rising sea levels and future storms that would displace
people living in coastal areas. This is key because it would imply that there will be future
mass migrations of people, mostly within very poor and vulnerable countries looking to
seek shelter elsewhere. Where would they go? How would society deal with a sudden
large group of migrants looking for protection? This is troublesome because there could
be a major backlash if wealthy nations are not prepared nor have a plan in place to deal
with large movements of scared, worried, and sometimes-dangerous people fighting to
survive. Examples from countries that do not have the infrastructure in place to handle
such an emergency will point out that our current economic system has set this up and
climate change will bring it all to light. All these possible effects on the table will come at
a cost, and it is imperative to understand what the cost will be from climate change, and
how we prepare civil society going into the 21st century.
Economic globalization gave the world the opportunity to come together for
commerce and exchange goods and services. We have seen unprecedented growth
throughout the world with many more nations developing a higher quality of life as those
in more developed nations such as the in the United State and around Europe. On one
hand, everyone wants live a good and healthy life, but once again climate change can end
11
that, especially if we continue to lag in our efforts to prepare for it. What implications
would climate change have economically? What are the costs of inactions? Who will feel
the brunt of these costs? Looking at the cost of fossil fuels, economic loss of
biodiversity, the cost of coping with disasters, and maintaining our cities and
infrastructure are all deemed necessary and important. We have to extract the economic
cost-benefits of fossil fuels in the short term and what it means for long-term economic
success.
Rapid globalization may force under-developed nations to utilize more fossil
fuels, exacerbating climate change. The use of fossil fuels will eventually get more
expensive to retrieve and possibly bring the global economy to an eventual slowdown or
maybe a standstill bringing catastrophic consequences. Burning more of the same fuels
responsible for our crisis for short-term benefits is not ideal and can do more harm than
good. Published evidence from the IPCC indicates that the net damage costs of climate
change are projected to be significant and to increase over time. Global mean losses
could be 1 to 5% of GDP for 4°C of warming, but regional losses could be substantially
higher (IPCC, 2007) and a growth in fossil fuel use from other developing countries can
undermine the gains reaped through current caps on global warming gases. This should
be evidence enough to start reevaluating the relationship between our economy and the
environment.
12
Successfully combating our climate crisis will be largely in the hands of the
governing bodies of global societies. This will require governments and the legislations
they produce to properly manage the environment. The politics of climate change in
chapter three, will be dissected in terms of who makes environmental decisions, what
grounds are they made and the current status of politics in the climate and environmental
arena. This chapter will explore what is already being done in the climate field from a
governing perspective and analyze how institutions such as the United Nations for
example, have a major role in dictating future climate related goals, rules and regulations.
Now, this will be tricky because not all countries emit greenhouse gases at the same rate
or amount, and the products of climate change are transnational. When having
negotiations within the U.N about future mitigation techniques, the main purpose,
theoretically is to have the voices of those who are at the forefront discussing their need
for assistance. However, that seems to often not be the case. Who dominates these
conversations? And why are their voices more prevalent than those who are directly
affected?
We will also look at how climate change is debated in the political and business
sectors, and how the larger public absorbs their various messages around climate change.
There are challenges at the local, state, national and international levels that will require
fundamental changes in how incorporate science into policy to become more sustainable.
Modern corporations make substantial profits off the same fuels that are responsible for
climate change and it will be way difficult to persuade them to change their business
practices. At present, public discussion of climate change tends to be partial and
disparate. To really come to terms with this urgent need for mitigation and adaptation
13
will require a broad, policy perspective because climate change challenges all corners of
the globalized state. The global economy and civil society will face a great danger from
the dynamic complexities of climate change and it is up to us to act to save our planet, its
inhabitants and future generations.
14
Chapter Two
Climate Change: The scientific analysis
Here we look at the underpinnings and chemical mechanisms of climate change.
Climate change occurs when physical responses such as changes in surface temperature,
atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, severe events, glaciers, oceans and land ice, and
sea level are altered as a result of either a warming or cooling planet. (IPCC, 2013). Lets
first get an idea behind the basics of radiative transfers. The Earth’s climate is powered
by incoming solar radiation from our sun with a temperature of 5780K (Frierson, 2013),
and it behaves like a blackbody with 100% efficiency in emitting and absorbing light.
Figure 1 shows the electromagnetic spectrum and the various wavelengths of energy
absorption:
(Lambert & Edwards, 2014)
Figure 1. Electromagnetic spectrum
15
The science behind climate change can be quite intimidating; meaning there are
many complexities within the earth’s system and how things we do not see play a role in
shaping the climate. Here, physical and chemical mathematical relationships can helps us
further understand how scientist figure out how the planet is warming. It starts with the
sun, or a black body. A maximum observed solar output occurs in the range of visible
light--wavelengths of 0.75-4 micrometers (μm). Scientists are able to come to know this
by using Wein’s displacement law: For a blackbody (or star), the wavelength of
maximum emission of any body is inversely proportional to its absolute temperature;
λmax= B / T in where the maximum wavelength λmax is given in μm, T (temperature) is in
units of K (Kelvin), and “B” is a constant equal 2897 μm K-1 (Kushnir, 2004).
Substituting the temperature of the earth into the “B” slot of this equation produces a
maximum wavelength of approximately 0.50µm or 500nm (nanometers) and it lies in the
visible light region of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Another formula scientist use to measure blackbody radiation is the Stefan-
Boltzmann equation: E = σT4. The total radiant heat energy emitted from a surface is
proportional to the fourth power of its absolute temperature. E represents the total
intensity of the radiating blackbody; σ (lower-case sigma) represents the Steffan-
Boltzmann constant of 5.67 x10-8W/m2 x the temperature to the power of four (T4)
(Frierson, 2013). Of the energy received by the earth, slightly over half the total is in the
form of infrared radiation, with the remainder being visible light. Of the total incoming
sunlight including all wavelengths that hits earth, about 50% is absorbed by water bodies,
soil, vegetation and other materials that are capable of absorbing light, along with another
20% of the solar radiation is absorbed in the atmosphere, with 17% and 3 % absorbed in
16
the troposphere and stratosphere, respectively. Mainly water droplets in the air and
molecular gases hold them. Then 30% is reflected back into space; 25% by the
atmosphere and 5% by surface coverage (Frierson, 2013). The ultraviolet component of
the spectrum is absorbed by stratospheric ozone (O3), oxygen (O2), and the infrared
component is absorbed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) (Baird & Cann,
2008).
Not all energy is absorbed by the earth nor actually reaches its surface because it
is reflected back into space by clouds, snow and ice that scientist calls “albedo” or the
measure of reflectivity. Clouds and other reflective agents have a combined albedo of
0.30. Clouds in particular for example have albedo ranging from 0.2- 0.7 depending on
the thickness, while snow and ice also have a reflectivity of 0.4-0.9. Our deserts and
forest has an albedo of 0.3 and 0.15, respectively; and because our oceans have poor
ability to reflect light, its albedo is less than 0.1(Frierson, 2013). The earth acts just like a
warm body with the ability to emit energy, and scientists understand that in order for the
planet’s temperature to remain fixed, the amount of energy the planet absorbs and the
amount it releases must be equal over the long-term. However, there is a consensus that
this balanced is no longer a balance and we need to know why.
17
2.1 Greenhouse Gases
As mentioned above we discussed the greenhouse effect, but now we must turn
our attention to the gases themselves that are responsible for climate change. Greenhouse
gases are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal
infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. Beginning
with carbon dioxide, the main contributor to climate change, and scientist look deeply
into this gas perhaps because it may have become too abundant. Figure 2 below from
NASA’s reconstruction of ice core data show why an increase in carbon dioxide levels
should be worrisome. Figure 2 illustrates how the rapid modernization since the industrial
revolution resulted in higher greenhouse gas contributions to atmosphere. The fascinating
thing is that global carbon dioxide levels rose rapidly in just a few hundred years.
(NASA.gov, 2014)
Figure 2: Carbon dioxide concentration for the last 400,000 years.
18
(Pidwirny, 2006)
Figure 3: Ice core and direct measurements from Hawaii both pointing to increasing
carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
Of particular concern is the increased level of carbon dioxide. A closer look at
Figure 3 shows that the concentration rose slowly between 1850 and 1950 and took off
after that at an unprecedented rate. As we emitted more carbon dioxide we have
inadvertently allowed for more of the reflected energy from the earth’s surface to be
absorbed and held in the atmosphere. During the industrial revolution levels were
measured at 280 ppm (parts per million) but by 2006, levels surpassed 382 ppm (Baird &
Cann, 2008). The reason for this change has to do with the fact that carbon dioxide is
constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface as it is both
produced and absorbed by many microorganisms, plants, and animals. If our oceans take
up too much carbon dioxide, delicate shells made up of calcium carbonate in an acidic
19
ocean is damaging to their reproduction, their availability and productivity having severe
consequences for food chains (Spero, 2005). However, the removal of excess CO2 by
these natural processes tends to balance. But as we intrude into the natural environment
by burning fossil fuels and cutting down trees or burning land, we are adding stored
carbon back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.
2.1.2: Methane
In addition to carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) is another potent and powerful
greenhouse gas. It is a colorless, odorless gas with wide distribution in nature. It is about
20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide pound for pound because it is much more
likely to absorb thermal infrared photons that pass through it. About 70% of current
methane emissions are anthropogenic in origin but have an average lifespan of only about
a decade (Baird & Cann, 2008). Methane is produced in various ways, either through
anaerobic decomposition. It is also produced from wetlands, from the burning of biomass
and from the excretion of cattle, sheep, and other wild animals. Methane is also emitted
into the air when pipelines carrying natural gas leaks, when coal is mined, and when the
gas is dissolved in crude oil are released—or incompletely flared—into the air when the
oil is collected or refined (Baird & Cann, 2008). All of these possibilities are increased as
our world become more industrialized. Figure 4 below shows the levels of methane
emission equivalent per metric ton of carbon dioxide, from 1990-2012.
20
(EPA.Gov, 2015)
Figure 4: Methane Emissions in the U.S from 1990-2012
2.1.3 Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another greenhouse trace gas that has been increasing in
our atmosphere. Globally, about 40% of total N2O emissions come from human activities
and in 2012, nitrous oxide accounted for about 6% of all U.S greenhouse gas emissions
(EPA.gov, 2015). The impact of one pound of nitrous oxide on warming the atmosphere
is over 300 times that of one pound of carbon dioxide. Nitrous oxide levels have
increased from 275 ppb (parts per billion) during the preindustrial period to 320 ppb
(Baird & Cann, 2008). It accounts for one-third of the additional warming that methane
has induced. This gas is a by-product of biological denitrification in aerobic (oxygen-
rich) environments and anaerobic (oxygen-poor) environments. Per molecule, nitrous
oxide is about 300 times as effective as carbon dioxide in causing immediate global
warming, because it remains in the atmosphere for an average of 120 years before being
destroyed through chemical reactions (Chatterjee, 2009). This begs me to question why
is carbon dioxide the main culprit when other GHG’s such as nitrous oxide and methane
are more potent? Nonetheless Research done at Washington State University on the
21
impact of diesel exhaust engines also indicate high amounts of NOx being emitted, in
comparison to a conventional gasoline engine, into the atmosphere (Singleton, J. et.al,
2014). Nitrous oxide would mix with volatile organic compounds (VOC’s) in a chemical
reaction producing tropospheric ozone (O3). Below is a graph to show a trend of nitrous
oxide emitted from the 1990’s-2012 and data on the comparison between diesel exhaust
and conventional gasoline exhaust.
( Hockstad, 2015)
Figure 5: Nitrous Oxide Emissions from 1990-2013
22
2.1.4: Ozone
Nitrous Oxide has deterious by-products, as well. Tropospheric ozone, or ground
level ozone is yet another greenhouse gas that has a short residence time and dangerous
health effects even at low concentrations. In the stratosphere ozone filters the harmful
ultraviolet radiation from the sun that poses a threat to plants and animals if they were
exposed to it. A mixture of diatomic oxygen (O2) and nitrogen dioxide NO2 with
exposure to bright light photo chemically produces the ground level ozone. These
mixtures occur mostly in the polluted air of large cities and do not react under normal
temperatures. But in hot temperatures, like summer weather of inside the cylinders of an
internal combustion engine, these two chemical agents can react:
N2 (g) + O2 (g)
Heat
2 NO (g) (1)
The NO formed inside automobile engines reacts spontaneously with O2 in air to form
NO2.
2 NO (g) + O2 (g) 2 NO2 (g) (2)
Nitrogen dioxide is a red-brown gas that dissociates when it is irradiated with bright
light.
NO2 (g)
Light
NO (g) + O (g) (3)
The oxygen atom formed in this process is extremely reactive and readily attaches to a
molecule of O2, forming ozone.
O (g) + O2 (g) O3 (g) (4)
23
This by-product ozone has the ability to absorb light at the 14μm region of the
spectrum because of the vibrations within the molecules, but it doesn’t contribute much
in enhancing the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide already removes much of the
outgoing light at this frequency (Baird & Cann, 2008). The pollution from power plants
and motor vehicles, from forest fires and grass fires as well as from natural processes all
generate the chemical needed to produce ozone.
2.1.5 Water Vapor
Water vapor itself is also considered a greenhouse gas with heat trapping
capabilities. Small amounts of outgoing infrared radiation in the 5.5-7.5µm regions are
intercepted by water vapor. It is the most important of the gases in the sense that it
produces more warming than the other gases, although it is a less efficient absorber than
carbon dioxide (Baird and Cann, 2008). The consequential increase in water vapor
concentration resulting in additional warming. Water vapor increases are an indirect
effect because as more GHG’s warm the planet, the more water can be evaporated and
stored in the atmosphere, thus increasing planetary warming. This is called a positive
feedback loop. However, there can still be much uncertainty surrounding water vapor
because the vapors in the atmosphere can also condense into clouds and help in reflecting
incoming sunlight. Below is a graph showing the amount of energy trapped by water
vapor as the “y” axis and the latitude and longitude along the “x” axis. Figure 6 shows a
peak near 0 or near the equator where most of the suns energy hits earth.
24
Dessler, 2008
Figure 6: Based on climate variations between 2003 and 2008 of energy trapped by
water vapor.
25
Chapter 3:
The impact of Diesel exhaust on atmospheric chemistry.
Abstract:
Diesel exhaust lacks sufficient study of its impact on the earth’s atmosphere.
Using an experimental flow tube photochemical reactor, exhaust processing in the
atmosphere was simulated. Measurements of NO, NOx, CO, CO2 and Ozone were
made to determine engine emissions and chemical transformation rates of these
pollutants in the photo-reactor. Two engine types were compared: a 5.5 kW diesel
generator operated with no electrical load, and a 2004 Chevy Silverado truck
operating without a catalytic converter. We began measuring NOx, CO, and CO2 from
the chamber's sampling manifold in front of the tube. We then took measurements
from the middle section of the tube that measures NOx and O3 levels as the exhaust
pass through the chamber. The preliminary results shows that the truck emitted a
substantial amount of NOx, CO and CO2. The NOx in particular went from a steady
concentration and then rapidly decreased when the lights were turned on in our
flow tube. Ozone seemed to climb as it also made its way through the chamber as
CO2 levels slowly decreased in the same time period. We then compared those
results to what the generator produces and we found that the exhaust contained
much less pollutants, roughly a couple hundred parts per million/billion of NOx, CO
CO2, and O3.
26
Introduction:
Diesel fuel is one of the most understudied fuels used in modern day vehicles.
Diesel exhaust contains gases that have climate-changing effects and may trigger
negative human health effects. Therefore it is imperative to understand the
chemicals that are in diesel exhaust and how they will affect the environment. By
utilizing a Teflon flow-tube reactor with photo-reactive capability as an
experimental environment, we are able to simulate how these gases may interact
photo-chemically in the atmosphere. By monitoring NOx, CO, CO2, and O3 levels
throughout the experiments, we can begin to quantify how much of the presence of
each gas in the atmosphere is due to diesel combustion emissions. By performing
this experiment we hope we can assist in making diesel engines more efficient
resulting in emissions which are safe for the environment, health, and are in
accordance with current EPA regulations and standards.
Experimental Methods:
Teflon flow tube with a total volume of 3601 Liters surrounded by UV lights
was used to simulate the ambient atmosphere. An ejector dilutor is connected to a
capillary tube such that it pulls samples from the exhaust pipe of a 5.5kW diesel
generator. The sample is diluted by a factor of 100 with 30 lpm of zero air from a
zero air generator. The mixture is then injected into the chamber via a ½” SS tube
with 6, 1/16” ID holes drilled along its length. There are six ports along the length of
the 16 foot long flow tube from which the gas sampling can occur, one each on the
junctions between segments, and one on the injection manifold. NOx, CO and CO2
levels of the flow tube were monitored at the injection manifold, representing the
27
direct emissions of these gases from the generator. With the plug-flow assumption,
these gases should take about an hour to get from this initial point to the middle
section of the tube where NOx and O3 was measured. The exhaust was allowed to
reach a steady state inside the chamber then the UV lights were turned on it create a
photo-oxidative environment. The data from the ejection port represented
generator emissions, while the data from the middle of the tube showed changes in
the chemistry within the tube due to photolysis.
Results:
Plots 1-3 show typical NOx, O3, CO2, and CO levels throughout the experiments.
Table 1 gives approximate mixing ratios for each gas under given conditions. It is
clear that turning the lights on around the chamber greatly affects the chemistry
within the chamber; O3 levels increased drastically, NO decreased while NO2
increased, with an overall loss in NOx. CO2 is unaffected by the UV lights, indicating
that it is a reliable ruler by which generator emissions and amount of fuel burned
can be standardized. CO levels for the truck were substantially high. It was above
the full-scale range of the instrument.
Figure 7: Comparison of diesel and gasoline exhaust emission
28
Figure 8: Comparison of ozone and nitrogen dioxide gases within the flow tube.
Figure 9: Comparison of NOx and ozone levels within the flow tube
29
Figure 10: Comparison of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide levels within the
flowtube.
Figure 11: Carbon monoxide and NOx ratios
30
Discussion:
Both gasoline and diesel engines have the potential to cause climate changing
effects and health hazards. We notice that during the day sunlight do have an effect
on the concentration levels of NOx gases that is a good thing. The data shows us that
there is still more room for improvement to make these engines as efficient as
possible to minimize the environmental impacts. The flow tube helped us
understand and quantify the gases present in the exhaust of both the Silverado and
the generator which we can conclude burns more efficiently. It is important to make
all future diesel engines as efficient as possible along with deeper studies into how
various levels of VOC’s can have an impact on human health. Once again, it is very
important that we continue to increase fuel efficiency standards for all diesel
vehicles the way we have been doing so for gasoline engines that have climate
changing potential.
Conclusion:
The overall purpose of this experiment was to determine which of the two
fuels releases the fewest gases and poses less of an environmental and health threat.
Using the flow tube chamber we were able to imitate and simulate the
photochemical interaction between NOx, CO, CO2 and O3 gases. From analyzing the
NOx, CO, O3, and CO2 gases in the tube we saw that the diesel generator burned more
efficiently than the gasoline truck. For our diesel generator different concentrations
of gases were counted for both lights on and off. NOx and NO coming in at ring three;
CO, CO2, and Ozone with lights off had an average of 3094 ppbv, 2052 ppbv,
1351ppbv, 886 ppbv, 10101 ppbv, 1254ppmv, and 34ppbv, respectively. On the
31
other hand with our lights now on for the same generator we got 3313 ppbv,
2204ppbv, 1427 ppbv, 369 ppbv, 10107 ppbv, 1213 ppmv, and 150 ppbv
respectively. From these numbers we can now see the how these gases react with
both lights on and off and know that most of them are in close range to each telling
us that these differences are not the great and only a couple of gases react because
of the light in our flow tube.
Future Work:
In the future it would be very interesting to see how much VOC’s can be
obtained from the exhaust using inert sampling canisters. The data will be
combined with data from the Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometer, Proton
Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometer, Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, and the Fine
Particle Counter to be completed by two graduate students Madeline Fuchs, Graham
VanderSchelden, under the guidance of Dr. Thomas Jobson, in hopes to fully
characterize the behavior of diesel exhaust in the atmosphere.
32
Chapter 4: Climate Change Impacts
ENVIRONMENTAL
The natural environment is a very fragile and extremely delicate when
responding to climate shifts, particularly one that rapidly occurs in less than three
centuries. There are large-scale environmental problems that are man-made such as
deforestation, and the pollution of water, soil and the air. This section of the chapter
aims to analyze the environmental impacts of human-induced climate change to
further understand what is happening and how events can be tied to climate change.
Rising surface temperatures would be first to look at because they set the
stage for future environmental impacts from hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, rising
seas and so on. Looking at the warmest years on record shows that each successive
year and decade has been warmer than the previous ones. As temperatures
continue to increase, many of the environmental problems we face go from bad to
worse all over the world. After looking at Earth’s temperature changes, we will see
what places around the world are being impacted environmentally from this, as well
as show what other environmental challenges we will face for the foreseeable
future.
33
4.1.1 Rising Surface Temperature
The one way scientists understand that the climate is warming globally is by
looking at and compiling changes in the earths surface temperature over periods of time.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the earth’s surface
temperature has risen 0.85 °C, from 1880 to 2012 (IPCC, 2013). The observable effects
are major: the melting of the polar and Greenland ice sheets, higher water evaporation
rates, extreme weather, drought and many more related events are all tangible earth’s
increasing temperature from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Below is an
illustration on just how much parts of the world have warmed up from one period in time
to another, especially within four decades.
NOAA. Gov, 2013
Figure 12: Global mean temperature over Land and Oceans from 1880-2000.
34
World Meteorological Organization, 2013
Figure 13: Decadal global combined surface-air temperature over land and sea-surface
temperature.
Figure 14: Decadal Mean Surface Temperature Hansen. J, 2015
35
Data compiled by The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Climate
Data Center and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services,
Figure 12 below show just how much the earths surface temperature changed since 1880.
The gray vertical bars indicate the range of uncertainty, the red bars representing more
accurate temperature ranges with the blue line tracks the changes in the trend. What is
interesting primarily about Figure 12 is that temperatures began to increase during the
start of world war one from below average through the 1920’s. This time in modern
history is known as the “roaring 20’s” post World War I when manufacturing and
production kicked into high gear resulting in increased CO2 emissions. Around 1940,
global mean temperatures spiked in a positive direction during the start of the second
World War in which again, humanity kicked into high gear to produce materials needed
to fight the bloodiest war humanity has ever seen. The post World War era, shows subtle
oscillations of temperature in the trend through the 1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s as industrial
production increased in post-war production. Figure 14 shows a colored illustration of the
changes in global temperatures over a series of decades. Between 1961 and 1980, mean
temperatures have risen by 0.015°C but increased rapidly by 0.6°C by 2014. The graph
shows that most of the warming is occurring in the northern latitude regions of the world.
But after 1980, the trend steadily increased, as more countries industrialized and constant
consumption became the new norm as demonstrated in figure 13 posts 1980.
36
But, what stands out is that temperatures seem to plateau after 2000. Scientist
suggest natural, short-term fluctuations in the climate system that occur on a year-to-year
basis or longer—may have played the most pivotal role of all by transferring excess heat
from the Earth’s surface into the deep ocean (Kennedy, 2013). Even as temperatures
seemed to have leveled out, it is still concerning that over just a century; globally
averaged temperature has warmed between 0.6-0.8°C above the 20th century average of
14°C primarily driven by anthropogenic forces (IPCC.gov, 2013). Here, we want to look
at the warmest years recorded and see just how much temperatures have increase and
look at what the consequences of this increase are. Earth’s average temperature is about
14°C as seen as the base line in Figure 8, and current scientific data points to rapid
increases since monitoring began. The largest portion of warming has occurred over the
past three decades, with 2014 being the hottest year on record surpassing the previous
record set in 2006 by 0.02°C. The decadal global average temperatures in Figure 13
shows that temperatures were 13.68°C between 1881-1890 ad rose to 14.47°C from
2001-2010 which is a 0.79°C increase.
37
Figure 14 Columbia.edu, 2014
Climate change does not necessarily mean that the effects will be the same
everywhere. The Northern Hemisphere was fifth warmest in the month of December,
while the Southern Hemisphere had its 10th highest December land temperature in the
135-year period of record. Warmer than average temperatures were observed across
North and South America; Europe, Africa, and Australia with temperatures climbing
more than 5°C Celsius from 1981-2010 (NOAA.gov, 2014). There also was cooler than
average temperatures across parts of far East Russia, small regions of southern and
southeast Asia and much of Namibia. The issue is not small differences, but long-term
change. In the United States, 2011 was a record-breaking year for climate extreme, such
as a rise in temperature, precipitation, flooding, and severe weather (NOAA.gov).
38
Between the months of January and October is considered the wettest on record in
northeastern states (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012).
Anthropogenic climate change that is driving our current climate crisis will
worsen and even make environmental problems much more difficult to solve. Water and
its importance in our everyday lives is a good example. We use it for agriculture,
drinking, energy so on and so forth. But what makes rising temperatures a threat is that
the excess heat will further evaporate water from the earth’s surface, especially within
soil, rendering it unable to grow crops or hold the nutrients needed, thus increasing and
intensifying desertification, droughts, and heat waves. The IPCC predicts that over the
next century, there could be a temperature rise of 1.4-5.5°C.
Temperatures increasing to these levels will cause glaciers to melt through the
century causing sea levels to rise and expand onto low-lying coastal communities and
habitats, making adaptation measures extremely difficult. Also, more places around the
world where people already suffer from droughts or live in under-arid regions will face
prolonged hardships due to lack of water availability and vegetation to support their
livelihoods. People will have to find food and shelter elsewhere, and if this occurs on
such a large scale it may provoke conflicts within and between groups of people who
have and do not have access to basic resources. These are just a few consequences of
rising surface temperatures. Overall, taken as a whole, the range of evidence indicates
that the net damage cost of climate change is likely to be very significant and to increase
over time.
39
4.1.2 Drought/Desertification
Another sign that our climate is undergoing a shift is increasing desertification
and prolonged droughts. These are also human-caused events primarily from excessive
agriculture and water use but nonetheless can be stressed by climate change. Adopted and
confirmed by the United Nations Environmental Programme’s Earth Summit in Nairobi
and Rio, Desertification is defined as “ arid, semi-arid and dry-subhumid land
degradation” that currently covers large portions of Africa, parts of North and South
America, Asia and all over the globe (Le Houerou, 1996). Droughts have always been a
normal recurrent event in these parts of the world especially as the world heats up.
However, an increasing global surface temperature, decreasing rainfall, and
higher evaporation and along with human activities will drive further desertification. Dry
lands are not spread equally between poor and rich countries: 72% of the global dry
land area occurs within developing countries and only 28% within industrial ones
(Safriel and Adeel, 2005). According to the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP), globally 54 million km2 or 40% of the land area is occupied by dry lands. Of
that total, 12% is in arid regions, 18% in the semi-arid region and 10% in the dry sub-
humid region. Dry lands are located throughout Asia (39%), Africa (43%), Oceania
(89%), North America (28%), South America (32%), Central America and the Caribbean
(58%), and Europe with (24%) of globally shared dry lands, respectively (Koohafkan &
Stewart, 2008). The earth’s surface is steadily losing vegetation as soil nutrients and lack
of water availability in many places are making the problem much more difficult to
manage or even solve. In other words, areas with the most poverty will have the hardest
time coping to changes.
40
4.1.3 Sea Level Rise
Rising global sea levels is an environmental threat of epic proportions. Glaciers
around the world are melting adding to sea level increases among other climate-related
events. The resulting effect will be the flooding of low-lying coastal cities and habitats.
Because we have never before seen such a thing happening one can say that the oceans
are overflowing or spilling over. What this means is that sea levels are encroaching onto
land and in many places it has already done so. Nonetheless, the rise and decline in sea
levels have occurred throughout the earth’s history and will happen again. It is not a
matter of “if” it happens but when, and how long?
There is very high confidence within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change that sea levels from warm periods during the last three million years exceeded 5
meters (16.4 ft.) above current levels when temperatures was up 2°C warmer than pre-
industrial period (Church, 2014). The current goal among the global community is to
keep global mean temperatures below the 2°C mark. Even if we were to stop the
pollution, we must concern ourselves with the saturation of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere before its “sinks” are able to absorb it. It is widely agreed that seas are rising,
but the extent varies by region, with some areas of the world showing an increase in sea
levels, and others showing a decrease. In the 21st century and beyond, sea level change
will have a strong regional pattern; with some places experiencing significant deviations
of local and regional sea level change from the global mean change.
41
Glaciers all over the world are all showing signs of melting at alarming rate
adding to current sea levels making it such an important threat especially in the long-
term. Global temperatures at 1.5°C will dictate the complete melting of the Greenland ice
sheet, and when completed that is expected to raise sea levels by seven meters. If
temperatures then increase between 2 and 4.5°C, there is a potential to trigger the melting
of the west Antarctic ice sheet that will eventually raise sea levels by more than 5-6
meters. But one doesn’t have to wait until temperatures climate 4.5°C higher then
present levels, because levels above 3°C risk major catastrophic events and a probability
of the thermohaline shutting down up to 50% or more (Watkiss, 2005). Everything from
coastal communities to larger urban cities all faces the threat of inundation. New York,
Los Angeles Tokyo, Shanghai, Rio de Jeneiro, and many more like them are all
vulnerable to rising seas (Paskoff, 2009). It is very likely that sea level will rise in more
than about 95% of the ocean area, with 70% of the coastlines worldwide projected to
experience sea level changes (Gregory, 2013). It would be a disaster on every level of
society if we look at extreme scenarios.
Using a model called the “Representative Concentration Pathways” or RCP,
scientist describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible
depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Using this
model, the IPCC believes global mean sea level rise is likely (medium confidence) to be
in the 5 to 95% range of projections from process based models, which give 0.26 to 0.55
m for RCP 2.6, which assumes levels peak between 2010-2020. There is a possible 0.32
to 0.63 m for RCP 4.5, with emissions peaking around 2040, and then declining. There
could be a rise of 0.33 to 0.63 m in scenario RCP 6.0, with emissions peaking around
42
2080; and 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP 8.5, which assumes emissions continuing to rise
throughout the 21st century, with a rate between 8 to 16 millimeters per year.
It isn't just cities that are in danger, it is also the entire coastal ecosystems that
protect them that are in danger of being destroyed flooding. These cities and population
centers are placed on the coast, which is helpful for trade, but can all be wiped away or
severely damaged from rising seawater. Coastal cities will be swallowed with millions of
people being displaced. This is a serious call for concern because we know how high sea
levels were by looking back at similar climate shifts throughout earth’s history
43
4.1.4 Ocean Acidification
Not all the carbon that we emit goes directly into the atmosphere, with a quarter
of all anthropogenic CO2 are absorbed by oceans (Siegenthaler and Sarmiento, 1993).
Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, the ocean is really one of the planets true
wonders. The oceans removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere has undoubtedly
helped curb the extent of climate change—but this benefit comes at a cost. These
reactions may seem very good at first until you realize that the oceans can only absorb so
much without any adverse side effects. But this isn’t the case. The absorption of carbon
dioxide is fundamentally changing the chemistry of the ocean by triggering reactions that
make seawater more acidic, a phenomenon called ocean acidification. Below is the
chemical reaction of ocean acidification:
CO2 (g) + H2O (l) → H2CO3 (aq) (1)
H2CO3 (aq) ↔ H+ (aq) +HCO3
- (aq) (2)
HCO3
- (aq) ↔ H+(aq) + CO3
2- (3)
Figure 15- Process of Ocean Acidification (University of Maryland)
44
The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would mix with the water molecules in the
ocean and produce carbonic acid, as seen in equation 1. That carbonic acid will break
down into hydrogen ions (H+) and bicarbonate ions (HCO3
-), as seen in equation 2. The
bicarbonate ions will then break down into hydrogen and carbonate. As more hydrogen is
created, the resulting effect is an acidic solution. The ocean has become nearly 30% more
acidic than it was at the beginning of the industrial era—a change larger and more rapid
than seen in the fossil record going back at least 800,000 years, before the appearance of
vertebrates and plants in the fossil record (Bedford, 2005). Seawater currently ranges
between 7.8 and 8.2 and is already on average 0.1-pH unit lower than it was prior to the
industrial revolution. Because of this there are disruptions in ecosystem services and in
the interrelationship between organisms and their environment.
Calcifier-organisms with shells or exo-skeletons made from calcium carbonate-
are among the most abundant forms of marine life. The ability for marine species to
build shells of calcium carbonate is called calcification but as hydrogen ions become
more abundant marine species that depend on calcium carbonate will be endangered. An
increase in acidity can cause shells to dissolve because the excess hydrogen ions reacts
with solid calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and convert it to soluble bicarbonate (HCO3
-) and
(Ca2+) ions.
45
From tiny plankton species that form the basis of marine food chains, to the vast
coral reefs that provide habitat for many ocean animals, calcifiers are an essential part of
many marine ecosystems. For example, pteropods, or tiny sea snail are an important
source of food for many species, including fish, seals, and whales. In a series of
experiments, pteropod shells were placed in seawater at the pH (acidity) projected for the
Southern Ocean by 2100. Within 48 hours, the pteropod shells began to dissolve
Many of the physiological processes of oceanic organisms are fine-tuned to
operate within a narrow pH range, and outside of that range, the biochemical reactions
may be too slow or inefficient to keep the organism healthy. A fish may be able to
compensate by eating more, but their eggs and larvae will have limited energy reserves
and, therefore, may have less capacity to adjust to more acidic conditions. There will also
be a great difficulty for marine organisms to absorb nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, and other
elements essential for growth.
46
4.1.5 Loss of Biodiversity/ecosystem services
In order for the globe to function and perform to the best of its abilities,
biodiversity is essential for providing services and is a crucial support system for our well
being. Ecosystems services provides us with food, clean water, medicine, industrial
materials, and genetic research for human development and remain a strong pillar in the
success in the human species. In the process of understanding extinctions, it is the
genetics, breeding and ecosystem diversity that make painting a global extinction picture
more complex. But on a regional scale, ecosystems such as estuaries, coral reefs, and
coastal and oceanic fish communities are quickly losing populations, species, and entire
functional groups (Worm & Barbier, 2006).
A 1°C above pre-industrial levels will cause up to a ten percent shift of ecosystem
areas worldwide and an increase of 2°C will shift up between 15%-20% worldwide, and
anything above that temperature threshold is likely to go above a 20% shift, much more
in some regions, with coastal wetlands exceeding a 10% shift (Watkiss, 2005). A
decrease in biodiversity may very well result in decrease productivity of the world’s
forest that we depend on to absorb the excess carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. It is a
“carbon sink” just as the oceans are because of the ability to absorb the greenhouse gas.
As the home of two-thirds of all plants and animals living on land, forests are the most
bio diverse terrestrial ecosystems (Fleming et al, 2011). It is these plants and animals that
provide the ecologic services we depend on. But our needs and desire to “develop” is
damaging to the forest and may be doing more harm than good.
47
In Asia, during the 1990’s had a net loss of forest of some 600,000 ha annually
but reported a net gain of more than 2.2 million ha per year between 2000-2010 despite
continued high rates of net loss in many South and Southeast Asian countries
(FAO,2010). In Europe the total loss of forest cover during the last decade still averages
around 13 million hectares per year (FAO, 2010), with South America suffering the
largest net loss of forests between 2000 and 2010 – about 4.0 million hectares per year –
followed by Africa, which lost 3.4 million hectares annually (FAO, 2010. Australia too
started suffering from severe droughts and wildfires from 2000-2010 with a net loss of
700,000 hectares of forest in that decade (UNEP, 2011). It is important to note that some
countries are resource rich and their economies depend heavily on natural resource
extraction.
Another critical problem that climate change will exacerbate is pollution. By
mining and burning coal and oil, contaminants are finding their way into water supplies,
the soil, and in the air. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that about a
quarter of the diseases facing mankind today occur due to prolonged exposure to
environmental pollution. Environments are exposed to pollutants such sulfur dioxide,
nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and many others from the combustion of gasoline in
vehicles from our transportation sector and coal from our electricity-generating sector.
This is this is proven to be hazardous on the environment and will negatively effect
environmental health and productivity.
48
4.2 Social Impact of Climate change
The impact of climate change will be widespread and may vary across regions
around the world due to geographic locations, the degree of association with climate-
sensitive environments, and unique cultural, economic, or political characteristics of
particular landscapes and human populations. Social vulnerability and equity are
extremely important because some countries may have less capacity to prepare for,
respond to, and recover from climate-related hazards and effects. But one thing is for
certain--the impact will be felt throughout human society, and countries around the world
are feeling the effects now.
Environmental changes whether natural or human induced, will cause severe
repercussions because of our dependence on it. Environmental changes around the world
will influence human behavior and dictate how people can cope with changes in the
foreseeable future. This section of this chapter will unravel what a changing climate
means for humanity. Who will be affected? How will they be affected? And what is
happening now to illustrate this. Various examples from around the world in places such
as Asia, which has the largest population, Africa, North and South America, Europe and
Australia, will illustrate that the effects of climate change. These effects can be seen
today and will become a bigger threat in the future, posing a significant danger to those
unable to cope and adapt.
49
4.2.1 Energy
It would be best to start with energy. As we mentioned earlier, the burning of
fossil fuels and the emitting of carbon dioxide is trapping heat in our upper atmosphere.
Energy plays an important role giving us electricity, bringing us water, producing food
along with many more benefits. However, the good times may come to an end as fossil
fuels are nonrenewable and once they're used up they are gone forever. Since we all
depend heavily on these fuels, it is important to note that according to the U.S Energy
Information Administration, the world’s energy consumption will grow by 56% between
2010 and 2040, from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) to 820 quadrillion BTU
(EIA.gov, 2013). If this trend holds up without, without significant investments in
renewable energy, energy resources would be strained sending the entire global economy
into a tailspin and initiating global conflicts for already scarce resources.
It is true that not everyone around the world consumes energy like the average
American, but it is noteworthy that these increases in consumption will come mostly
from developing nations such as China, India and Brazil as their economies continue
grow. Again, one cannot stress enough how important energy is to humanity. Everything
takes energy and being extremely reliant on dirty non-renewable fuels will be reflected as
a societal cost. Simply trying to live will have to be accomplished with great difficulty
because of higher energy cost meaning a higher cost of living. We will discuss that more
in detail later, but it seems that cheap and abundant fossil fuels are still the energy
heavyweights until it is no longer feasible to obtain those fuels. As a global hunger for
cheap energy continue to grow, the problems will become much larger and unstable.
50
4.2.2 Food and Water
It is known that it takes energy to produce food, and provide water but if that
energy source gets expensive what tends to happen is that food prices will increase and
water will decline in supply as well. Now, let’s take this a step further. What would
become of society if food prices spike so much that access to it becomes much more
difficult? People will begin to react with extreme consequences when daily needs can no
longer be met, with nations around the world scrambling for food, water and stability.
Higher average temperatures of 2.5°C in 2080 could result in 50 million
additional people at risk of hunger. With a 3°C rise, developing countries, mostly those
with the most of the population, will see the food deficit double (Watkiss, 2005). For
many regions already under water-stress, global mean temperatures above 1.5°C will lead
to more decreases in the water supply. This means as temperatures increase, water
availability will lessen meaning that a 2-2.5°C or more temperature increase will put
between 2.4 and 3.5 billion additional person at risk (Watkiss, 2005).
The United Nations estimates that by 2050 the world will need to find a way to
feed more than nine billion people-- approximately two billion more than live on the
planet today. The lack of food production and accessibility is becoming clearer every
day. The food and agriculture organization defines food security as ‘all people at all times
have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active life’ (FAO, 1996). The UN considered
four elements of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability-- all of which
are in dire jeopardy if we do not address climate change.
51
However, food security may seem unattainable for many people, especially those
on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum. Approximately 265 million of the 915
million undernourished people worldwide are located in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO,
2009). No continent will be struck as severely by the impact of climate change as Africa.
Because of its geographical position, the continent will be particularly vulnerable due to
the considerably limited adaptive capacity, exacerbated by widespread poverty and
existing low levels of development. This will be a further issue in light of a warmer
planet with many of the crops southern Africans depend on may be in decline because of
global climate change, further causing instability within an already fragile area. By 2020,
between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress;
yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by
2020; agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised
(IPCC, 2007). The report goes on to say that yields from rain-fed agriculture could be
reduced by half severely compromising access to food.
In an analytical report by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics
and Management at Cornell University, 14 countries in African continent fell prone to
food riots between 2006 and 2008. These riots swept across the continent, from Egypt
and Tunisia in the North, to Burkina Faso and Senegal in the west, and Madagascar and
Zimbabwe (Berazneva &Lee, 2011). These riots were caused by a sudden spike in oil and
food prices, also around time of the global financial crisis that was felt around the world.
52
To make matters worse, the rise in surface temperature will result in more
evapotranspiration that will lower soil moisture levels meaning that some cultivated areas
around Africa will become unsuitable for crop growing. This will not only occur in
Africa, but also around the world and will most directly affect those whose entire lives
revolve around agriculture and food production. If global temperatures continue to rise
unchecked damages to global agriculture will be more prominent and even irreversible.
4.2.3 Health
Environmental health corresponds directly with human health and if the
environment isn’t in good shape, it will eventually and surely get reflected in how we
live. Because our dependence on fossil fuels is so great that there seems to be divergence
between economic globalization and the connection between climate change and one’s
health. Adverse health effects can occur directly from changes in temperature and
precipitation and in the occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires; and
indirectly by ecological disruptions such as crop failures, shifting patterns of disease
vectors or even through social responses such as the displacement of populations
(IPCC.ch, 2014). We understand that climate change will bring forth many environmental
changes and we must ask ourselves, how will it impact our health?
The health of the human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and
other aspects of global warming, but this sensitivity won’t influence the emergence of a
new disease. Nonetheless, the higher probability of increased food, water, and vector-
borne diseases are expected to become more common, even in places where it was once
non-existent, mainly in northern latitudes as they become warmer and wetter. Malaria, for
example, is a disease transmitted by mosquitos mainly found in the tropical and
53
subtropical regions of the world. It kills about 1 million children each year with 2.4
billion people living under this threat (Fischer and Bialek, 2002). With global
temperatures to rise to 2.3°C by 2080 puts up to 270 million at risk; and another one
degree rise would put up to 330 million at risk (Watkiss, 2005). Africa will continue to
carry the greatest burden of the disease and in particular Eastern and Southern Africa.
Mountainous regions in South Asia are likely to experience an increase in transmission
the same goes for highland region of South East Asia and pacific countries. On the other
hand places like the Europe, Canada and New Zealand are unlikely to be affected in the
near future. This also may be a result of superior climates and even medical treatments
between those more prone and those who are not. Diseases from ticks were also found in
parts of Sweden increased in response to a succession of warmer winters, although this
interpretation remains contested it is the geographical range of ticks that transmit Lyme
borreliosis and viral encephalitis has extended northwards in Sweden and increased in
altitude in the Czech Republic (McMichael et.al, 2006). These extensions have
accompanied recent trends in climate change.
Health hazard due to climate change will be a result of warmer temperatures and
extreme weather events that will mostly affect those already with pre-existing health
concerns such as cardiovascular disease and mental illness superior among children.
Also, epidemiological studies of extreme temperatures in Europe and North America has
shown a positive association between heat waves and mortality amongst elderly people,
with mainly women being most affected. During the extreme heat wave of August 2003,
there were approximately 30,000 deaths as a result throughout Europe, especially in
France (McMichael et.al, 2006). In Paris, many nursing homes for example were not
54
well equipped to deal with a heat wave because of the lack of air-conditioning and may
not have promptly given rehydrating fluids to those live in these homes. Flooding can
overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience, and social organization. Some
health consequences arise during or soon after a flooding such as injuries, communicable
diseases or exposure to toxic pollutants, where as others such as malnutrition and mental
health disorders occur later. Excessive precipitation initiates entry of human sewage and
animal waste into waterways and drinking water supplies increasing the likely hood of
water-borne diseases.
55
4.2.4 Population growth/Poverty
Another social constraint that may affect how we combat climate change will be a
growth in the population size resulting in a further appetite for already scarce resources,
food and fuel. These events will force people to migrate to other places to accommodate
their needs. Over the last century, greenhouse gas emissions have risen in tandem with
an ever-larger human population; the curve of soaring carbon dioxide emissions is neatly
matched by the curve of world population growth (O’Neill, 2010). On the other hand, not
every person on earth consumes at the same rate as lets say, the average American, who
have the highest consumption rate per capita in the world.
Demographic trends have an important connection to both the challenges and
solutions to the problem of climate change. Rapid population growth exacerbates
vulnerability to the negative consequences of climate change, and exposes growing
numbers of people to climate risk. A slower population growth would indeed lead to
lower emissions, making climate-change problems a bit easier to solve. A growing global
population and different weather events will in fact make our climate problem worse as
people begin to migrate bringing diseases, anger, fear and hunger with them.
A great example is Bangladesh, where land degradation and scarcity in have been
growing since the 1950’s. Those that are poor and dependent on agriculture became less
able to make a living and frequent storms, floods, and droughts made things worst.
Between 12-17 million Bangladeshis moved to India. Another example that is closer to
home is the famous dust bowl of the 1930’s, initiated by strong winds, a prolonged
drought, and aggressive land cultivating that forced 2.5 million people to leave the Great
Plains region of the United States as farm output and quality of life fell (Reuveny, 2007).
56
This shows that environmental factors has a major influence on human activity and
movement and will occur more often with a higher growth in population. As more
nations look to uplift their people into higher standards of living without adequate clean
energy sources, more fossil fuels will be utilized.
Most of the growth in the world’s population is taking place in urban areas in
low-and middle-income nations, and it is likely to continue. Because cities contribute a
large portion of greenhouse gas emissions, assessing this contribution from the
perspective of where GHG’s are produced or from consumption perspective is important.
If cities concentrate energy intensive production, this will push up their average GHG
emissions per person meaning that cities with heavy industry or fossil fuelled power
stations can have higher CO2 emissions per person.
Today, over 2 billion people are struggling to survive on an income of less than
$1 a day. Moving 1 billion people out of absolute poverty as stated in the Millennium
Development Goals means that by 2015 there will still be the same number of people, if
not more, in absolute poverty because of demographic increases (O’Brien, 2008). People
with low-income is only one component of poverty of the multiple and interactive
deprivations of human capabilities that sustains it. Millions of people around the world
lack instrumental and substantive freedoms, including economic opportunities, political
freedoms, social facilities, transparency guarantees, and protective security; this lack of
freedom extends the lack of basic freedom to survive. The suffering of millions of people
through unnecessary hardships, illness, misery and death—they are vulnerable.
57
4.3: Economic Impact of Climate change
Economic globalization and climate change are both considered important areas
for contemporary research, but it is important that we consider these two issues together.
As our world becomes more interconnected, activities taking place in one side of the
world will have an effect on the other. This section of the chapter will look at what the
various cost of climate change will be and how these cost can accumulate. A changing
climate will eventually become more or too burdensome, especially for under-developed
countries as it has weak economic ability in comparison to the developed countries in
order to minimize the impact of climate change.
The economy is a very vital and important component of human society and it
has given us a lot of prosperity to say the least. But without an environment that is
healthy, intact, and sustainable, the economy will inevitably collapse. This is simply
because everything we have came from somewhere and we must realize that the
environment is truly valuable, not what we can extract and produce from it. A disruption
in daily life related to change can mean lost work and school days and harm trade,
transportation, fisheries, energy production, and tourism. Severe rainfall events and
snowstorms can delay planting and harvesting, cause power outages, congest traffic,
delay air travel, and otherwise make it difficult for people to go about their daily lives.
Climate-related health also reduces productivity; such as extreme heat lessening
construction or even higher allergy levels and more air pollution leading to lost school
and workdays.
58
4.3.1: Agriculture
Agriculture contributes merely three percent to global gross domestic product and
was one-third of the contribution a few decades ago. More than 25 percent of GDP is
derived from many least-developed countries (FAO, 2005) The World Bank, in 2007
identified five main factors through which climate change will effect the productivity of
agricultural crops: changes in precipitation, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2)
fertilization, climate variability, and surface water runoff. The production of crops is
directly influenced by precipitation and temperature, and it is a precipitation that
determines the availability of freshwater and the level of soil moisture, which are critical
inputs for crop growth. But as the climate begins to warm and patterns begin to vary from
place to place, crop production may face decline in various parts of the world with heat
stress likely to affect subtropics/tropics regions under a 1.7°C increase (Watkiss, 2005).
A study of Asian agriculture, by Yale University, found that Asia is responsible
for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. The study explains the variations of observed
net revenue per hectare of cropland. They found that if surface temperatures were to rise
1.5° C, there would be small aggregate effects on crops, but if temperatures were to climb
to 3°C warmer above 1960-1990 levels, there would be a net loss of $84 billion dollars in
revenue just in China alone (Mendelsohn, 2013). Other Asian countries, such as Bhutan,
Cambodia, India, Kyrgystan, Laos, Nepal, and Turkmenistan, are predicted to lose more
than 20% of their crop net revenue. India alone is responsible for two thirds of the lost net
revenue in Asia (Mendelsohn, 2013). It is important to look at how climate change will
impact Asia, since it produces two-thirds of the world’s food and is clearly a place that
deserves a lot of attention.
59
A seemingly small rise in temperature can cost Asia a lot of money, and it would
further devastate their agriculture sector if planetary warming continues to go unchecked.
The study also found that in a 3°C warmer scenario, overall damages rises to $195
billion, representing a 28% loss of net revenue. But this isn’t all bad news for many
countries in the region: Afghanistan, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and Tajikistan all
gain more net revenue with the additional warming even though they will be relatively
small (Mendelsohn, 2013). Also, yields increases in Europe and the United States if
temperatures remain below the 2°C threshold but beyond that, there will be a decline in
output (Watkiss, 2005). Rising temperatures are too causing devastation to Africa’s
already-stressed agricultural sector. Projected reductions in yield in some countries could
be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by
2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected (IPCC.Ch, 2007).
60
4.3.2: Climate Insurance
Insurance is something many people have in case of a sudden emergency and
hope we wouldn’t have to ever use it. It is organized either through private markets,
publicly, or public-private partnerships. It internalizes catastrophe risk costs prior to
catastrophic events, reducing the economic impact of weather-related and other disasters
to individuals, enterprises and governments—thus stabilizing income and consumption,
and decreasing societal vulnerability. A large portfolio of uncorrelated and relatively
small risk can accurately average a loss per policy and can be predicted and charged
accordingly. Besides spreading risk over a diversified insured population, insurance
spreads risk over time instead.
But this will not be the case for infrastructure prone to climate change such as
homes, cars, and anything else that can be insured but vulnerable to being destroyed.
Natural disasters will be an insurance company’s worst nightmare as it becomes more
frequent and the most expensive of infrastructure sit mainly in vulnerable places, like on
the coast or in the path of tornadoes for example. But natural disasters will be very
expensive for insurance companies and climate change itself is a threat to these
companies and the broader economy (Mills, 2007).
61
The insurance sector now finds itself on the frontlines of climate change, meaning
that companies will now have try an limit their exposure to high-risk areas along
coastlines and areas prone to wildfires. Allstate, for instance, was prompted to cancel or
not renew its policies in many Gulf Coast states with hurricanes wiping out all of its
profits in had generated in 75 years of selling homeowner insurance. Also, in Florida,
they have cut the number of homeowners’ policies from 1.2 million to just 400,000
(Mills, 2007). These companies are aware of the threat climate change pose and will take
necessary action to limit their exposure.
When hurricane Sandy pummeled the east coast of the United States and the
Caribbean in October of 2012, it exposed millions of people and billions of dollars worth
of assets to the sorts of hazards that might be expected to increase as a result of climate
change. An estimated 1.8 million structures and homes were destroyed or damaged, with
economic losses exceeding $65 billion. Among the business most negatively affected by
Sandy, were tourism, which accounted for a loss of more than $1billion dollars and
10,000 jobs. Hurricane Katrina too, was an expensive storm in which $40 billion in
claims filed, an amount equivalent to almost half of the worldwide catastrophic claims
made in 2005 (Liverman & Glasmeier, 2014). Europe’s largest insurer, Allianz, stated
that climate change stands to increase losses by 37% within just a decade and losses in a
bad year could top $1 trillion (Mills, 2007). This weather related disasters affect many at
the same time and violates the principle of uncorrelated risk, leading to large losses that
are more probable, a loss of variance is greater, and tail risk is much higher (IPCC.Ch,
2014).
62
4.3.3: Infrastructure
Global infrastructure will have great difficulty coping with climate change as sea
levels rise, floods occur, droughts, wildfires and extreme storms would require extensive
repair. This will include homes, roads, bridges, railroad tracks, airport runways, power
lines, dams, levees, and seawalls. In a study regarding the future cost for Alaska’s
infrastructure from climate change estimates that it could add another $3.6-$6.1 billion
(+10% to +20% above normal wear and tear) to future cost from now to 2030, and by
2080, those cost can range from $5.6-$7.6 billion (Larsen et al. 2007). This accruing cost
will be commonplace for infrastructure around the globe. Here in the U.S, a Gulf Coast
study found that approximately 2400 miles of major roads, 246 miles of railway, 3
airports and three-quarters of freight facilities would be inundated by a four-foot rise in
sea level. It also found that more than half of the major roads and all of the ports were
susceptible to flooding from a storm surge of just 18 feet. Katrina’s surge was estimated
at 28 feet at landfall. The effects of damaged infrastructure on essential services pose an
even more complex set of challenges and lessons about the interdependence on
infrastructure, its vulnerabilities and its impact on society and the economy.
63
4.4: Politics of climate change:
The first global climate conference took place on February 1979, in Geneva,
Switzerland. Leaders from all over the world began to hold discussions around the
implications of climate change. This set the stage for future conversations at the local,
national, and international levels about climate change and what it means for the future of
humanity, and how we can start adapting and mitigating the serious impacts to come. But
within this realm of dealing with climate change there is a complex web of those who
shape human activity warming the planet and the relationship they have with the
regulators who regulate such activities.
This section of the chapter will explore the following questions: who makes
environmental decisions? How are the decisions made? And how do is science
incorporated in policy decisions. Looking at how different sectors of nations economies
depend on degrading practices such as fishing, and mining, for example that is
perpetuating climate change, trying to grow their economies. The political arena around
climate change is often lopsided, complicated and lacks recognition of true implications
of climate change. The discussion revolving around climate change comes mainly from
nations, most of who are capable of coping with future climate-related disasters to be the
primary voices in the environmental-political arena.
64
Science and policy often times are at odds because it tells us to bring down our
over consumption and emissions. But that approach conflicts with the long held
economic belief of growth at any cost. Lets look at the actors in the environmental arena
from local, national, and international levels and analyze the interest involved when
making environmental decisions and see how various influences may be doing more
harm than good.
States are what nations are called when discussing climate change within the
United Nations. They are the most important actors in global environmental politics.
They adopt the broad economic, regulatory trade, and development policies that impact
the environment. They decide which issues receive formal consideration by the
international community and climate change has surely become one (Chasek, 2009). At a
national level, climate change is debated as if it is something that is still debatable. This is
why making political decisions to address climate change is seen as “harming the
economy” and that addressing it may be the worst thing we can do. Any environmental
move forward will have to be swayed by the public and there is a far and wide climate
denial body that represents the very actors who benefits greatly from business practices
that is changing the climate.
The conversation around climate change from a public perception tends to be
partial and disparate. There is a loose connection between what the evidence shows and
the potential impacts that will occur. This is largely imparted because of well organized
and well-funded disinformation campaigns to rally against climate change mitigation, and
this have been occurring over decades in spite of the overwhelming evidence and
consensus. For example, Koch Brother industries—a company rooted in chemical and
65
fossil fuel operations-- have spent at least $80 million to groups denying climate change
science since 1997 (Greenpeace.org). Many opponents of climate change also believe
and will argue that policies will limit individual freedoms if governments step in and
begin dictating how one should begin interacting with the environment. Also, companies
that makes a huge profit off of environmental exploitation such as the fossil fuel and
energy industry are at the frontlines of the denial campaign, and spend large sums of
money to alter public perception and mitigation policies that may hurt their short-term
profits.
Lets not forget about the medias role in talking about climate change. Their job is
to take scientific literature, disseminate it and put it into terms average people can
understand. But over the years this seems not to be the case. Many media outlets pit
climate change believers against deniers as if both arguments are equal in which they are
not. Scientist all over the world says that the climate is changing and it is human activity
that is causing it. But somehow there is this idea that denying climate change is just as
credible.
Many politicians in the United States argue that climate change still debatable, but
also all over the world many national interests are at odds with global environmental
agendas because it often times reflect the interest of the dominant socio-economic elites.
In 1995, Indonesia allocated control over a large portion of its forest resources to twenty
Indonesian conglomerates that then controlled more than 63% of the 62 million hectares
of the country’s timber (Chasek, 2009). These businesses had close ties with the family of
former president Suharto, which in turn allowed the businesses to ignore logging
regulations and dominate the regimes forest policy. In-fact, Indonesia opposed proposals
66
for new international norms on forest management in the 1990’s and agreed with the
Canadian premise—that each major timber-exporting country to create its own Eco
labeling system. A nation that is influenced by big business or a business with conflicting
interest with environmental policies will make international negotiations sluggish
because one’s economy depends on specific resources.
67
Chapter 5: The Green Economy/solutions
My research for a steady, green, and sustainable economic system because it can
uplift many people out of poverty and restore the planet to a healthier state and
economically intelligent. The United Nations defines the green economy as one that
results in improved human well-being and social equity, while reducing environmental
risk and ecological scarcities (UNEP, 2011). People per se do not cause human-induced
GHG emissions in general, but the specific human activities by specific people or groups
of people are causing this climatic change. If this is the case then we should have a
societal structure in place or at least begin putting one in place that promotes heavier
investment into clean energy and new social behaviors.
A sustainable economy will encompass social, political, economic, and
environmental factors because each one overlaps with the other. From a social standpoint,
no one should be left out of the new economy regardless of race, economic standing, or
gender. This should be an all inclusive and non-discriminatory, making everyone feel like
they are citizens of earth and have an obligation to protect it. I say this because there are
immediate social issues such as racism, classism, and gender oppression that will hinder
the climate movement at national and international levels. Tackling climate change can
and will bring an end to immediate social issues because it shows that humanity can
come together regardless of what history tells us about who we are and our places in it.
68
A new alternative economic system and way of governance will affect how
quickly we can combat climate change. Indeed, government will play a major role in this
transition by creating an inclusive green economy—by setting standards, spurring
innovation, realigning existing investments, and making new investments. This will
ensure that we make the transition rapidly, while protecting and benefiting our most
vulnerable populations. Van Jones, the author of “The Green Collar Economy” says this
can happen in three steps: first by regulating conduct in which governments sets the rules
of the new economy, lays down the law, establishes standards, and tells members of
society what they can and cannot do. Second, they can invest money from direct
spending, to offering incentives, to underwriting risk. Lastly, they can convene leaders—
spurring the formation of new collaborative institutions that solves problems by bringing
together public, private, and nonprofit stakeholders. All levels of government will have to
remove barriers to green growth because we have solved big problems in the past and we
most certainly can do it now.
In 2010, new investment in clean energy is estimated to have reached a record
high of US$243 billion, up from US$186 billion in 2009 and US$180 billion in 2008
(Dril & Tilburg 2011). Countries such as China, Brazil, and India have seen an
increasing growth in renewables because of they are emerging economies with large
populations that need employment within this sector. The costs of adaptation are
estimated to reach $50-170 billion per year by 2020, and if we are to keep global
temperatures below the 2C mark, the global economy will have to commit $1.7 trillion.
Every year of delay in bringing the energy sector on the 450ppm trajectory would add
$500 billion to the global cost for mitigating climate change (Dril & Tilburg, 2011). With
69
the proper investments not only would many nations become energy independent, but
they will have a better work force in an area still under developed. There are many people
throughout the world that do not have access to a job or an education, making this the
perfect opportunity to give people economic stability and security.
The United States, for example, spends at least $600 billion dollars on military-
related expenditure--more than the next ten countries in line combined (NationalDefence.
Gov, 2014). But one must ask, is that amount of money for defense truly necessary?
Also, we give away massive tax breaks to the same companies causing the problem while
solar and wind industries are left behind begging and pleading—just to get extensions on
their modest tax credits. I believe this should not be the case especially for a wealthy
nation such as the United States. The subsidies must come to an end and money must be
redirected at clean technologies research, poverty eradication, education, and production
throughout the nation.
Paying people to grow plants and trees that absorb carbon dioxide would help pull
gases from the atmosphere while, at the same time cutting emissions. Around the world
there are many people who need work and are looking for income. Why not give these
people a chance to come together with their governments to implement new green
strategies that allows them to grow plants, fruits, and vegetables, or get and maintain their
own energy independence? We can allocate money to poor nations to help them combat
climate change by giving them the technological capabilities to do so. Developing and
under-developed nations holds the largest portion of the global population and future
emissions will come from those countries; why not help them grow without having to
70
pollute? They do not have to be like the U.S and the west that had to get “dirty” in order
to get “clean”.
Climate change and constant environmental degradation are the biggest threats
facing humanity today. In the long term, oceans will continue to rise, become more
acidic, and flood low-lying coastal communities and habitats. Short-term threats such as
extreme weather, threats to agriculture, water shortages all pose serious threats to
humanity and we must try our hardest and act swiftly to avoid the worst possible effects.
Our current economic structure that depends heavily on fossil fuels is driving our climate
problems and we must alter the way our economic and monetary policies influence the
global environment. We should strive for a green, stead and sustainable economy, and
one that benefits the earth and all of it inhabitants.
A global green new deal must be reached before we hit environmental and
climatic tipping points that will be irreversible. A green, steady, and sustainable
economy is one that puts the environment first and allows for the global economy to
prosper. According to the Brundtland commission of 1987, sustainability is defined as “
…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs” (Redclift, 2005). But one may still remain
critical of this definition by analyzing this a bit closer. Meeting the needs of the present
is systematically unsustainable, and that the needs of the worlds poorest are being met are
in complete disparities and extreme inadequacy around the world. This has many
economic, social, environmental, technological, and political inequities especially in a
fast moving society.
71
Also, one does not know what the needs of future generations are or will be
because it is shaped by our current actions. Also, one has to ask why aren’t “needs” met
in underserved, impoverished nations around the world, with 1.2 billion people living in
extreme poverty. There are billions of people without access to food, water, shelter,
medicine, and other “needs” for survival, so I do not believe that this definition cannot
hold up as truly “sustainable”. The concept of sustainability nonetheless, has evolved
and was once seen as an operational concern that consists largely as defensive efforts to
reduce a company’s environmental footprint and cut waste. But a more strategic stance is
needed and the focus must shift from cost reductions to innovation, and initiatives begin
to consider whole value chains. The overall argument is simply how will the future of
business be done?
Sustainability should be seen as a common global development system that values
high quality living within and throughout the very fabric of society. Lets develop and put
forth an economic system that contributes to the environment, a global communal
economic developmental system that lives within the means of the earth that uses natural
processes to generate energy, restoring the health of degraded environments. Let’s not
forget to use our technology to measure energy efficiency, monitor the quality and
quantity of environmental processes and goods.
Humanity cannot truly be sustainable if we do not contribute back to the same
environments that we take from. We must live within the means of the earth for present
generations to get through while contributing back for the next generations and so on. We
can plant trees, make our own energy, grow our own food without chemicals; we have
72
the technology to make energy because of mimicking environmental processes or even
enhance environmental productivity. Solar panels, wind turbines, greener cities, top
energy efficient policies are all options that we can and start implementing at a global
level, one in which can all enhance the productivity of people without harming the
environment.
This sustainable economy is an economy that should not be profit-driven because
we clearly see what even competing for the most money has already done to people, the
planet, and its resources. It emphasizes the crucial point that economic growth and
environmental stewardship can be complementary strategies, challenging the still
common view that there are significant tradeoffs between the two objectives.
There must be a new system in place that caters to the environment but adds to it
instead of taking away from the goods it produces. We have spent many years degrading
and even destroying the environment and it will be extremely expensive to try and restore
it to a healthier and functioning order. Of course, the bounty of nature is priceless, but
the unfortunate effects of our seeing these inputs to well being as incalculable has been
that they are treated as free. It is this economic and systematic mindset that creates
problems when resources turn out not to be limitless or indestructible.
Ending our dependence on fossil fuels will not only curb our emissions but also
slow the rate of our warming even though it may not completely reach equilibrium more
many more centuries or even in millennia. We can cut our emissions sharply and even
bring it down to an extreme minimum. That will be very helpful and we can implement
economic incentives and mandates for companies and people as well to do the same.
73
My view of a sustainable economy from a social perspective is one in which we as
humans spend our time rebuilding and contributing to the planet instead of taking away
from it. We can give back more than what we take so that future generations can have a
habitable planet and it be in better shape then when previous generations found it. I
strongly believe that all people of the world want to establish a higher quality of living
and we can most certainly accomplish that. Our future generations depend on it.
Climate Change Disertation
Climate Change Disertation
Climate Change Disertation
Climate Change Disertation

More Related Content

What's hot

Climate Change - Prof Michael Bird
Climate Change - Prof Michael BirdClimate Change - Prof Michael Bird
Climate Change - Prof Michael BirdMeg Collis
 
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change Policy
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change PolicyClean It Cool It - Climate Change Policy
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change PolicyAnnastasia Stewart
 
Advocacy on Climate Change
Advocacy on Climate ChangeAdvocacy on Climate Change
Advocacy on Climate ChangeCrestianTadlip1
 
Cannon summary
Cannon summaryCannon summary
Cannon summaryGDCKUL
 
[Challenge:Future] Alternative development
[Challenge:Future] Alternative development[Challenge:Future] Alternative development
[Challenge:Future] Alternative developmentChallenge:Future
 
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3George E Wendleton
 
Just War Climate Change
Just War Climate ChangeJust War Climate Change
Just War Climate ChangeBenjamin Stitt
 
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...ipcc-media
 
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical Analysis
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical AnalysisE3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical Analysis
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical AnalysisPrashant Mehta
 
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copy
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copyFinal Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copy
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copyTobbi Stewart
 
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...TANKO AHMED fwc
 
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012Coralie Rigaud
 
Why climate models fail
Why climate models failWhy climate models fail
Why climate models failJason Thompson
 
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere
 
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimate
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimateIce melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimate
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimatesim8283
 

What's hot (20)

Don wuebbles 2014 wed keynote
Don wuebbles 2014 wed keynoteDon wuebbles 2014 wed keynote
Don wuebbles 2014 wed keynote
 
Fracking_Paper
Fracking_PaperFracking_Paper
Fracking_Paper
 
Climate Change - Prof Michael Bird
Climate Change - Prof Michael BirdClimate Change - Prof Michael Bird
Climate Change - Prof Michael Bird
 
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change Policy
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change PolicyClean It Cool It - Climate Change Policy
Clean It Cool It - Climate Change Policy
 
Advocacy on Climate Change
Advocacy on Climate ChangeAdvocacy on Climate Change
Advocacy on Climate Change
 
Bending_the_Curve_Univ-of-Cal_2015
Bending_the_Curve_Univ-of-Cal_2015Bending_the_Curve_Univ-of-Cal_2015
Bending_the_Curve_Univ-of-Cal_2015
 
Cannon summary
Cannon summaryCannon summary
Cannon summary
 
Climate Change 1.2.3
Climate Change 1.2.3Climate Change 1.2.3
Climate Change 1.2.3
 
[Challenge:Future] Alternative development
[Challenge:Future] Alternative development[Challenge:Future] Alternative development
[Challenge:Future] Alternative development
 
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3
PP-Global Climate and Atmospheric Change 3
 
Just War Climate Change
Just War Climate ChangeJust War Climate Change
Just War Climate Change
 
Course 7/7 Vladimir jankovic
Course 7/7 Vladimir jankovicCourse 7/7 Vladimir jankovic
Course 7/7 Vladimir jankovic
 
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...
Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assess...
 
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical Analysis
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical AnalysisE3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical Analysis
E3: Earth's Environment of Edge: A Critical Analysis
 
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copy
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copyFinal Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copy
Final Draft Research Paper_Sustainability copy
 
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS: WHITHER GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FOR MITIGA...
 
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012
coralie-rigaud-DDO9-memoire-2012
 
Why climate models fail
Why climate models failWhy climate models fail
Why climate models fail
 
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
 
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimate
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimateIce melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimate
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimate
 

Similar to Climate Change Disertation

Middle Range Theory Essay
Middle Range Theory EssayMiddle Range Theory Essay
Middle Range Theory EssayKimberly Jones
 
A christian view on social eco justice
A christian view on social eco justiceA christian view on social eco justice
A christian view on social eco justiceminasinvest
 
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docx
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docxKc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docx
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docxcroysierkathey
 
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docx
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxRunning Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docx
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxjoellemurphey
 

Similar to Climate Change Disertation (6)

Middle Range Theory Essay
Middle Range Theory EssayMiddle Range Theory Essay
Middle Range Theory Essay
 
Climate Change Essays
Climate Change EssaysClimate Change Essays
Climate Change Essays
 
A christian view on social eco justice
A christian view on social eco justiceA christian view on social eco justice
A christian view on social eco justice
 
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docx
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docxKc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docx
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docx
 
Climate change
Climate changeClimate change
Climate change
 
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docx
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxRunning Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docx
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docx
 

Climate Change Disertation

  • 1. 1 Climate Change: Reasons for a green, steady, and sustainable global economy. By Justin Singleton Submitted in partial fulfillment of the Bachelors of Arts degree schoolof natural science, Hampshire College, Amherst, MA. May 2015 Committee Chair: Professor Dulasiri Amarasiriwardena Committee Member: Professor William Ryan
  • 2. 2 Acknowledgement: I want to give a special thanks to Professor Dulasiri for his unconditional support throughout my time here at Hampshire College. The amount of dedication shown to me is unparalleled and not once did he give up on me nor shun me away. The encouragement provided by Professor Dula allowed for me to complete my division three project with much clarity and ease. I am forever grateful for the helping hand that Dula has lent out to me and I will take what he has taught me and apply it everywhere I go for the rest of my life. I would also like to give a special thanks to Professor Will Ryan for his support as my writing instructor and another mentor of mine. His down to earth style and passion for me as a writer was shown throughout my years at Hampshire College. He taught me how to write different kinds of papers whether it be scientific research or material given out in class, either way I was able to complete all the tasks at hand. I am very grateful to have Will Ryan as a committee member and someday we should go on a fishing trip! Last but not least, I want to thank the James Baldwin Program for bringing me to Hampshire and treating me as an individual. The support system is phenomenal filled with people who share similar backgrounds as I do and come from different walks of life. Without the help of Madeline Marquez and Karina Fernandez none of this would have been possible. I am forever thankful for their sincerity and support.
  • 3. 3 Table of Contents: Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Climate Change: The scientific analysis 2.1.1- Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide 2.1.2- Methane 2.1.3- Nitrous Oxide 2.1.4 Ozone 2.1.5- Water Vapor Chapter 3: Case Study Diesel Exhaust Chapter 4: Climate Change Impacts 4.1.1: Rising Surface Temperatures 4.1.2: Drought/Desertification 4.1.3: Sea Level Rise 4.1.4: Ocean Acidification 4.1.5: Loss of Biodiversity/ Ecosystem Services 4.2: Social Impact of Climate Change 4.2.1: Energy 4.2.2: Food and Water 4.2.3: Health 4.2.4: Population growth/Poverty 4.3: Economic Impact of Climate Change 4.3.1: Agriculture 4.3.2: Climate Insurance 4.3.3: Infrastructure 4.4: Politics Of Climate Change Chapter 5: The Green Economy and Solutions
  • 4. 4 Abstract This dissertation investigates the long and short-term impacts of climate change from an environmental, social, economic, and political perspective. This work also incorporated the findings of my summer research internship at Washington State University regarding the effects of diesel exhaust emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate change. Two engine types were compared: a 5.5 kW diesel generator operated with no electrical load without a catalytic converter, and a 2004 Chevy Silverado gasoline truck operating without a catalytic converter. Emitted NOx, CO, and CO2 concentrations were measured using flow-tube connected to the combustion chamber. The preliminary results demonstrate diesel truck with a catalytic converter produced elevated levels of NOx, CO and CO2. Under the influence of UV light, steady pre NOx levels were plummeted but O3 levels were increased while CO2 levels were dropped. It appears the diesel generator with catalytic converter burns efficiently with lower global warming gases and fewer photo-induced chemicals. Along with the results of this case study, I then looked at the broader perspectives and offered solutions on how we can mitigate climate change by advocating for a switch to a green, steady and sustainable economy; one in which we can decrease our carbon dioxide emission, while lifting the quality of life for all humans bringing enormous benefits to planet earth and its inhabitants.
  • 5. 5 Chapter 1. Introduction Planet earth-our home-has a very frightening future, there is really no other way to put it. The planet’s temperature is currently increasing with a general consensus amongst scientist that this increase is primarily due to human activities. Our primary sources of energy-- coal, oil, and natural gas— are the Achilles heel of the global economy because we rely too heavily on them. The combustion of these fuels, and our over reliance on them is influencing the composition of the earth’s atmosphere; adding more heat trapping gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane into the atmosphere. It’s no secret our fossil fuel reserves will inevitably become exhausted because supply and the availability of these resources will soon steadily decrease all the while the demand for more energy is projected to increase. If this increase in energy consumption rises very rapidly without readily available substitutions, we are jeopardizing or even killing a future for the generations after. In 2007, scientists warned that we have less than a decade left to head off climate change. Now it seems that even those dire forecasts went unheard: Recent evidence shows that the climate is changing much more quickly than predicted just a few years ago. And it’s not just the climate. From acidifying oceans to depleted aquifers, the natural systems we depend upon are nearing “tipping points,” beyond which they may not recover. A future climate that we haven’t seen since our existence will most certainly have dramatic effects on the quality of living today, and what we do today to mitigate the worst effects, will most certainly impact future generations.
  • 6. 6 The purpose of this paper is to show that we can most certainly combat climate change by changing the activities we do that causes the warming problem in the first place. It isn’t humanity per se that is causing global warming but our actions that are influencing this change. Changing human behavior in a way that benefits earth can very likely influence how future societies develop. Within this thesis each section will be divide into chapters and sub chapters acknowledging the complexities of climate change, how it will impact us, and what we can do to save our futures. In chapter two, the science of climate change must be analyzed in such a way that provides us with some clues for how to proceed. Various questions like, what are the gases that contribute to climate change? Where do they come from? And how do they absorb or reflect? These are questions that we will address. There will be a case study-- primary research done at Washington State University-- around the impacts of diesel exhaust for example on atmospheric compositions, and its influence on climate change and public health. This intends to display how dynamic and interconnected the planet systems are, how they influence one another and what it means for humanity. An understanding of the greenhouse effect, and how it acts, as a thermostat regulating the temperature of the earth must be explored further because of our actions in adding climate-changing gases into the atmosphere. The earth system is so dynamic with many interactions, interrelationships, and feedbacks that scientist even admit that they do not fully understand everything about the earth. But what we can do is start by picking it apart, then put it back together like a puzzle, and that is what we will be doing to understand climate change and its impacts.
  • 7. 7 The various relationships within and between the atmosphere, landmasses, and the oceans will be analyzed. These interactions support one another and start to explain how climate change is impacting the planet. Cycles such as the carbon, water, and nitrogen cycle are necessary for the earth to replenish itself. The relationships may be altered because of excess greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere, and understanding how this will influence climate change is crucial. The transport of nutrients, heat, and vital needs of plants depend the interrelationship within and between these cycles. As we increase the concentration of carbon dioxide, other greenhouses gases, and continuously degrade our environment; it may affect the relationship between the geophysical and geochemical process. Adding more carbon dioxide—a greenhouse—gas to the atmosphere we would then add more water vapor into the atmosphere resulting in more warming. Cutting down our forest, too, adds more carbon dioxide into the air undermining the job trees have to absorb carbon dioxide. As a consequence, climate change will send rippling effects through the fabric of our society with short and long term changes; and the four perspectives mentioned above will show portray this occurring. Chapter three will discuss the various perspectives of analyzing climate change such as environmental, social, economic, and political. I will be looking at reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and incorporating their data into this dissertation. Each perspective is to show how climate change will affect society as a whole with some even overlapping. Chapter 3.1 will explore climate change from an environmental perspective analyzing the long-term and short-term changes that are expected to occur because of human activity. Oceanic and land surface impacts,
  • 8. 8 pollution exacerbation, sea level rise and other related effect are environmental issues that we all face today and in the foreseeable future. 3.2 will discuss the social implications from global warming and I will discuss food production and accessibility, mass migrations, impacts on livelihoods, and who in particular may be most vulnerable to the wrath of climate change. Chapter 3.3-will discuss the economic impacts of climate change. This will show what the current cost of climate change and what will be lost throughout various sectors of the global economy-- whether from agriculture, infrastructure, and even people jobs. And chapter 3.4 will discuss the political impact of climate change because the politics is very important when making climate change decisions and a deeper acknowledgement of a gap between science and policy at the governmental level. We will analyze how environmental decisions are made, who makes them, and how do they influence the global economy. Lastly, Chapter four advocated for a greener, steady and sustainable economy that encompasses humans and nature; but it isn’t easy. Using renewable resources like solar, wind, geothermal, tidal movement and many other potential candidates can have a major influence on mitigating climate change. Promoting equity and equality can eradicate poverty and is simply central to a sustainable economy. The intent is to make the transition as smooth and easy as possible because there is a huge opportunity in cleaning up our acts and living within the means of the earth. We need an economy that doesn’t operate on dirty fuels. We want one that can promote living within the means of the earth. There are many questions that we must ask ourselves such as; can we combat climate change and protect future generations? What changes does humanity needs to make in order to adapt or at least become more resilient than we are now? And lastly, can
  • 9. 9 combating climate change help humanity overcome its immediate social disparities like racism, classism, and gender marginalization? Looking at developed, developing and under-developed nations will be critical when talking about whom in particular will face the brunt of climate change for the foreseeable future. These are questions that certainly needs attention and this paper intends to unravel climate change, its impacts, and how it is possible that fundamental changes are needed are all levels of society. Now, it is important that we note that not every place around the world will feel similar climate effects; some places may do a bit better in a warmer world while others may not. Most of the environmental changes that are happening around the world are becoming irreversible, unless quick and swift action is taken. The environment may often be taken for granted because of the services they provide as if it will never end and can always replenish itself. Although some resources can be replenished but it will take a long time to do that, while others cannot be replenished. However, the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases can alter environmental balances and disrupts its functionality. Natural and managed resources and systems, and their uses all have the potential to be altered. Regional and global changes in the earth’s surface would come at a major cost to the very inhabitants who depend on it.
  • 10. 10 Humanity is already known to have a primary hand in global climate change. But how will these changes in the climate and the environment affect society as a whole? There are a few sectors we should urgently look at, such as water scarcity, energy availability, health and social services, food, and infrastructure. These are problems that nations all over the world will have to address at sometime in the future and it doesn’t stop there. We should keep an eye on rising sea levels and future storms that would displace people living in coastal areas. This is key because it would imply that there will be future mass migrations of people, mostly within very poor and vulnerable countries looking to seek shelter elsewhere. Where would they go? How would society deal with a sudden large group of migrants looking for protection? This is troublesome because there could be a major backlash if wealthy nations are not prepared nor have a plan in place to deal with large movements of scared, worried, and sometimes-dangerous people fighting to survive. Examples from countries that do not have the infrastructure in place to handle such an emergency will point out that our current economic system has set this up and climate change will bring it all to light. All these possible effects on the table will come at a cost, and it is imperative to understand what the cost will be from climate change, and how we prepare civil society going into the 21st century. Economic globalization gave the world the opportunity to come together for commerce and exchange goods and services. We have seen unprecedented growth throughout the world with many more nations developing a higher quality of life as those in more developed nations such as the in the United State and around Europe. On one hand, everyone wants live a good and healthy life, but once again climate change can end
  • 11. 11 that, especially if we continue to lag in our efforts to prepare for it. What implications would climate change have economically? What are the costs of inactions? Who will feel the brunt of these costs? Looking at the cost of fossil fuels, economic loss of biodiversity, the cost of coping with disasters, and maintaining our cities and infrastructure are all deemed necessary and important. We have to extract the economic cost-benefits of fossil fuels in the short term and what it means for long-term economic success. Rapid globalization may force under-developed nations to utilize more fossil fuels, exacerbating climate change. The use of fossil fuels will eventually get more expensive to retrieve and possibly bring the global economy to an eventual slowdown or maybe a standstill bringing catastrophic consequences. Burning more of the same fuels responsible for our crisis for short-term benefits is not ideal and can do more harm than good. Published evidence from the IPCC indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are projected to be significant and to increase over time. Global mean losses could be 1 to 5% of GDP for 4°C of warming, but regional losses could be substantially higher (IPCC, 2007) and a growth in fossil fuel use from other developing countries can undermine the gains reaped through current caps on global warming gases. This should be evidence enough to start reevaluating the relationship between our economy and the environment.
  • 12. 12 Successfully combating our climate crisis will be largely in the hands of the governing bodies of global societies. This will require governments and the legislations they produce to properly manage the environment. The politics of climate change in chapter three, will be dissected in terms of who makes environmental decisions, what grounds are they made and the current status of politics in the climate and environmental arena. This chapter will explore what is already being done in the climate field from a governing perspective and analyze how institutions such as the United Nations for example, have a major role in dictating future climate related goals, rules and regulations. Now, this will be tricky because not all countries emit greenhouse gases at the same rate or amount, and the products of climate change are transnational. When having negotiations within the U.N about future mitigation techniques, the main purpose, theoretically is to have the voices of those who are at the forefront discussing their need for assistance. However, that seems to often not be the case. Who dominates these conversations? And why are their voices more prevalent than those who are directly affected? We will also look at how climate change is debated in the political and business sectors, and how the larger public absorbs their various messages around climate change. There are challenges at the local, state, national and international levels that will require fundamental changes in how incorporate science into policy to become more sustainable. Modern corporations make substantial profits off the same fuels that are responsible for climate change and it will be way difficult to persuade them to change their business practices. At present, public discussion of climate change tends to be partial and disparate. To really come to terms with this urgent need for mitigation and adaptation
  • 13. 13 will require a broad, policy perspective because climate change challenges all corners of the globalized state. The global economy and civil society will face a great danger from the dynamic complexities of climate change and it is up to us to act to save our planet, its inhabitants and future generations.
  • 14. 14 Chapter Two Climate Change: The scientific analysis Here we look at the underpinnings and chemical mechanisms of climate change. Climate change occurs when physical responses such as changes in surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, severe events, glaciers, oceans and land ice, and sea level are altered as a result of either a warming or cooling planet. (IPCC, 2013). Lets first get an idea behind the basics of radiative transfers. The Earth’s climate is powered by incoming solar radiation from our sun with a temperature of 5780K (Frierson, 2013), and it behaves like a blackbody with 100% efficiency in emitting and absorbing light. Figure 1 shows the electromagnetic spectrum and the various wavelengths of energy absorption: (Lambert & Edwards, 2014) Figure 1. Electromagnetic spectrum
  • 15. 15 The science behind climate change can be quite intimidating; meaning there are many complexities within the earth’s system and how things we do not see play a role in shaping the climate. Here, physical and chemical mathematical relationships can helps us further understand how scientist figure out how the planet is warming. It starts with the sun, or a black body. A maximum observed solar output occurs in the range of visible light--wavelengths of 0.75-4 micrometers (μm). Scientists are able to come to know this by using Wein’s displacement law: For a blackbody (or star), the wavelength of maximum emission of any body is inversely proportional to its absolute temperature; λmax= B / T in where the maximum wavelength λmax is given in μm, T (temperature) is in units of K (Kelvin), and “B” is a constant equal 2897 μm K-1 (Kushnir, 2004). Substituting the temperature of the earth into the “B” slot of this equation produces a maximum wavelength of approximately 0.50µm or 500nm (nanometers) and it lies in the visible light region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Another formula scientist use to measure blackbody radiation is the Stefan- Boltzmann equation: E = σT4. The total radiant heat energy emitted from a surface is proportional to the fourth power of its absolute temperature. E represents the total intensity of the radiating blackbody; σ (lower-case sigma) represents the Steffan- Boltzmann constant of 5.67 x10-8W/m2 x the temperature to the power of four (T4) (Frierson, 2013). Of the energy received by the earth, slightly over half the total is in the form of infrared radiation, with the remainder being visible light. Of the total incoming sunlight including all wavelengths that hits earth, about 50% is absorbed by water bodies, soil, vegetation and other materials that are capable of absorbing light, along with another 20% of the solar radiation is absorbed in the atmosphere, with 17% and 3 % absorbed in
  • 16. 16 the troposphere and stratosphere, respectively. Mainly water droplets in the air and molecular gases hold them. Then 30% is reflected back into space; 25% by the atmosphere and 5% by surface coverage (Frierson, 2013). The ultraviolet component of the spectrum is absorbed by stratospheric ozone (O3), oxygen (O2), and the infrared component is absorbed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) (Baird & Cann, 2008). Not all energy is absorbed by the earth nor actually reaches its surface because it is reflected back into space by clouds, snow and ice that scientist calls “albedo” or the measure of reflectivity. Clouds and other reflective agents have a combined albedo of 0.30. Clouds in particular for example have albedo ranging from 0.2- 0.7 depending on the thickness, while snow and ice also have a reflectivity of 0.4-0.9. Our deserts and forest has an albedo of 0.3 and 0.15, respectively; and because our oceans have poor ability to reflect light, its albedo is less than 0.1(Frierson, 2013). The earth acts just like a warm body with the ability to emit energy, and scientists understand that in order for the planet’s temperature to remain fixed, the amount of energy the planet absorbs and the amount it releases must be equal over the long-term. However, there is a consensus that this balanced is no longer a balance and we need to know why.
  • 17. 17 2.1 Greenhouse Gases As mentioned above we discussed the greenhouse effect, but now we must turn our attention to the gases themselves that are responsible for climate change. Greenhouse gases are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. Beginning with carbon dioxide, the main contributor to climate change, and scientist look deeply into this gas perhaps because it may have become too abundant. Figure 2 below from NASA’s reconstruction of ice core data show why an increase in carbon dioxide levels should be worrisome. Figure 2 illustrates how the rapid modernization since the industrial revolution resulted in higher greenhouse gas contributions to atmosphere. The fascinating thing is that global carbon dioxide levels rose rapidly in just a few hundred years. (NASA.gov, 2014) Figure 2: Carbon dioxide concentration for the last 400,000 years.
  • 18. 18 (Pidwirny, 2006) Figure 3: Ice core and direct measurements from Hawaii both pointing to increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Of particular concern is the increased level of carbon dioxide. A closer look at Figure 3 shows that the concentration rose slowly between 1850 and 1950 and took off after that at an unprecedented rate. As we emitted more carbon dioxide we have inadvertently allowed for more of the reflected energy from the earth’s surface to be absorbed and held in the atmosphere. During the industrial revolution levels were measured at 280 ppm (parts per million) but by 2006, levels surpassed 382 ppm (Baird & Cann, 2008). The reason for this change has to do with the fact that carbon dioxide is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface as it is both produced and absorbed by many microorganisms, plants, and animals. If our oceans take up too much carbon dioxide, delicate shells made up of calcium carbonate in an acidic
  • 19. 19 ocean is damaging to their reproduction, their availability and productivity having severe consequences for food chains (Spero, 2005). However, the removal of excess CO2 by these natural processes tends to balance. But as we intrude into the natural environment by burning fossil fuels and cutting down trees or burning land, we are adding stored carbon back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. 2.1.2: Methane In addition to carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) is another potent and powerful greenhouse gas. It is a colorless, odorless gas with wide distribution in nature. It is about 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide pound for pound because it is much more likely to absorb thermal infrared photons that pass through it. About 70% of current methane emissions are anthropogenic in origin but have an average lifespan of only about a decade (Baird & Cann, 2008). Methane is produced in various ways, either through anaerobic decomposition. It is also produced from wetlands, from the burning of biomass and from the excretion of cattle, sheep, and other wild animals. Methane is also emitted into the air when pipelines carrying natural gas leaks, when coal is mined, and when the gas is dissolved in crude oil are released—or incompletely flared—into the air when the oil is collected or refined (Baird & Cann, 2008). All of these possibilities are increased as our world become more industrialized. Figure 4 below shows the levels of methane emission equivalent per metric ton of carbon dioxide, from 1990-2012.
  • 20. 20 (EPA.Gov, 2015) Figure 4: Methane Emissions in the U.S from 1990-2012 2.1.3 Nitrous Oxide Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another greenhouse trace gas that has been increasing in our atmosphere. Globally, about 40% of total N2O emissions come from human activities and in 2012, nitrous oxide accounted for about 6% of all U.S greenhouse gas emissions (EPA.gov, 2015). The impact of one pound of nitrous oxide on warming the atmosphere is over 300 times that of one pound of carbon dioxide. Nitrous oxide levels have increased from 275 ppb (parts per billion) during the preindustrial period to 320 ppb (Baird & Cann, 2008). It accounts for one-third of the additional warming that methane has induced. This gas is a by-product of biological denitrification in aerobic (oxygen- rich) environments and anaerobic (oxygen-poor) environments. Per molecule, nitrous oxide is about 300 times as effective as carbon dioxide in causing immediate global warming, because it remains in the atmosphere for an average of 120 years before being destroyed through chemical reactions (Chatterjee, 2009). This begs me to question why is carbon dioxide the main culprit when other GHG’s such as nitrous oxide and methane are more potent? Nonetheless Research done at Washington State University on the
  • 21. 21 impact of diesel exhaust engines also indicate high amounts of NOx being emitted, in comparison to a conventional gasoline engine, into the atmosphere (Singleton, J. et.al, 2014). Nitrous oxide would mix with volatile organic compounds (VOC’s) in a chemical reaction producing tropospheric ozone (O3). Below is a graph to show a trend of nitrous oxide emitted from the 1990’s-2012 and data on the comparison between diesel exhaust and conventional gasoline exhaust. ( Hockstad, 2015) Figure 5: Nitrous Oxide Emissions from 1990-2013
  • 22. 22 2.1.4: Ozone Nitrous Oxide has deterious by-products, as well. Tropospheric ozone, or ground level ozone is yet another greenhouse gas that has a short residence time and dangerous health effects even at low concentrations. In the stratosphere ozone filters the harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun that poses a threat to plants and animals if they were exposed to it. A mixture of diatomic oxygen (O2) and nitrogen dioxide NO2 with exposure to bright light photo chemically produces the ground level ozone. These mixtures occur mostly in the polluted air of large cities and do not react under normal temperatures. But in hot temperatures, like summer weather of inside the cylinders of an internal combustion engine, these two chemical agents can react: N2 (g) + O2 (g) Heat 2 NO (g) (1) The NO formed inside automobile engines reacts spontaneously with O2 in air to form NO2. 2 NO (g) + O2 (g) 2 NO2 (g) (2) Nitrogen dioxide is a red-brown gas that dissociates when it is irradiated with bright light. NO2 (g) Light NO (g) + O (g) (3) The oxygen atom formed in this process is extremely reactive and readily attaches to a molecule of O2, forming ozone. O (g) + O2 (g) O3 (g) (4)
  • 23. 23 This by-product ozone has the ability to absorb light at the 14μm region of the spectrum because of the vibrations within the molecules, but it doesn’t contribute much in enhancing the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide already removes much of the outgoing light at this frequency (Baird & Cann, 2008). The pollution from power plants and motor vehicles, from forest fires and grass fires as well as from natural processes all generate the chemical needed to produce ozone. 2.1.5 Water Vapor Water vapor itself is also considered a greenhouse gas with heat trapping capabilities. Small amounts of outgoing infrared radiation in the 5.5-7.5µm regions are intercepted by water vapor. It is the most important of the gases in the sense that it produces more warming than the other gases, although it is a less efficient absorber than carbon dioxide (Baird and Cann, 2008). The consequential increase in water vapor concentration resulting in additional warming. Water vapor increases are an indirect effect because as more GHG’s warm the planet, the more water can be evaporated and stored in the atmosphere, thus increasing planetary warming. This is called a positive feedback loop. However, there can still be much uncertainty surrounding water vapor because the vapors in the atmosphere can also condense into clouds and help in reflecting incoming sunlight. Below is a graph showing the amount of energy trapped by water vapor as the “y” axis and the latitude and longitude along the “x” axis. Figure 6 shows a peak near 0 or near the equator where most of the suns energy hits earth.
  • 24. 24 Dessler, 2008 Figure 6: Based on climate variations between 2003 and 2008 of energy trapped by water vapor.
  • 25. 25 Chapter 3: The impact of Diesel exhaust on atmospheric chemistry. Abstract: Diesel exhaust lacks sufficient study of its impact on the earth’s atmosphere. Using an experimental flow tube photochemical reactor, exhaust processing in the atmosphere was simulated. Measurements of NO, NOx, CO, CO2 and Ozone were made to determine engine emissions and chemical transformation rates of these pollutants in the photo-reactor. Two engine types were compared: a 5.5 kW diesel generator operated with no electrical load, and a 2004 Chevy Silverado truck operating without a catalytic converter. We began measuring NOx, CO, and CO2 from the chamber's sampling manifold in front of the tube. We then took measurements from the middle section of the tube that measures NOx and O3 levels as the exhaust pass through the chamber. The preliminary results shows that the truck emitted a substantial amount of NOx, CO and CO2. The NOx in particular went from a steady concentration and then rapidly decreased when the lights were turned on in our flow tube. Ozone seemed to climb as it also made its way through the chamber as CO2 levels slowly decreased in the same time period. We then compared those results to what the generator produces and we found that the exhaust contained much less pollutants, roughly a couple hundred parts per million/billion of NOx, CO CO2, and O3.
  • 26. 26 Introduction: Diesel fuel is one of the most understudied fuels used in modern day vehicles. Diesel exhaust contains gases that have climate-changing effects and may trigger negative human health effects. Therefore it is imperative to understand the chemicals that are in diesel exhaust and how they will affect the environment. By utilizing a Teflon flow-tube reactor with photo-reactive capability as an experimental environment, we are able to simulate how these gases may interact photo-chemically in the atmosphere. By monitoring NOx, CO, CO2, and O3 levels throughout the experiments, we can begin to quantify how much of the presence of each gas in the atmosphere is due to diesel combustion emissions. By performing this experiment we hope we can assist in making diesel engines more efficient resulting in emissions which are safe for the environment, health, and are in accordance with current EPA regulations and standards. Experimental Methods: Teflon flow tube with a total volume of 3601 Liters surrounded by UV lights was used to simulate the ambient atmosphere. An ejector dilutor is connected to a capillary tube such that it pulls samples from the exhaust pipe of a 5.5kW diesel generator. The sample is diluted by a factor of 100 with 30 lpm of zero air from a zero air generator. The mixture is then injected into the chamber via a ½” SS tube with 6, 1/16” ID holes drilled along its length. There are six ports along the length of the 16 foot long flow tube from which the gas sampling can occur, one each on the junctions between segments, and one on the injection manifold. NOx, CO and CO2 levels of the flow tube were monitored at the injection manifold, representing the
  • 27. 27 direct emissions of these gases from the generator. With the plug-flow assumption, these gases should take about an hour to get from this initial point to the middle section of the tube where NOx and O3 was measured. The exhaust was allowed to reach a steady state inside the chamber then the UV lights were turned on it create a photo-oxidative environment. The data from the ejection port represented generator emissions, while the data from the middle of the tube showed changes in the chemistry within the tube due to photolysis. Results: Plots 1-3 show typical NOx, O3, CO2, and CO levels throughout the experiments. Table 1 gives approximate mixing ratios for each gas under given conditions. It is clear that turning the lights on around the chamber greatly affects the chemistry within the chamber; O3 levels increased drastically, NO decreased while NO2 increased, with an overall loss in NOx. CO2 is unaffected by the UV lights, indicating that it is a reliable ruler by which generator emissions and amount of fuel burned can be standardized. CO levels for the truck were substantially high. It was above the full-scale range of the instrument. Figure 7: Comparison of diesel and gasoline exhaust emission
  • 28. 28 Figure 8: Comparison of ozone and nitrogen dioxide gases within the flow tube. Figure 9: Comparison of NOx and ozone levels within the flow tube
  • 29. 29 Figure 10: Comparison of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide levels within the flowtube. Figure 11: Carbon monoxide and NOx ratios
  • 30. 30 Discussion: Both gasoline and diesel engines have the potential to cause climate changing effects and health hazards. We notice that during the day sunlight do have an effect on the concentration levels of NOx gases that is a good thing. The data shows us that there is still more room for improvement to make these engines as efficient as possible to minimize the environmental impacts. The flow tube helped us understand and quantify the gases present in the exhaust of both the Silverado and the generator which we can conclude burns more efficiently. It is important to make all future diesel engines as efficient as possible along with deeper studies into how various levels of VOC’s can have an impact on human health. Once again, it is very important that we continue to increase fuel efficiency standards for all diesel vehicles the way we have been doing so for gasoline engines that have climate changing potential. Conclusion: The overall purpose of this experiment was to determine which of the two fuels releases the fewest gases and poses less of an environmental and health threat. Using the flow tube chamber we were able to imitate and simulate the photochemical interaction between NOx, CO, CO2 and O3 gases. From analyzing the NOx, CO, O3, and CO2 gases in the tube we saw that the diesel generator burned more efficiently than the gasoline truck. For our diesel generator different concentrations of gases were counted for both lights on and off. NOx and NO coming in at ring three; CO, CO2, and Ozone with lights off had an average of 3094 ppbv, 2052 ppbv, 1351ppbv, 886 ppbv, 10101 ppbv, 1254ppmv, and 34ppbv, respectively. On the
  • 31. 31 other hand with our lights now on for the same generator we got 3313 ppbv, 2204ppbv, 1427 ppbv, 369 ppbv, 10107 ppbv, 1213 ppmv, and 150 ppbv respectively. From these numbers we can now see the how these gases react with both lights on and off and know that most of them are in close range to each telling us that these differences are not the great and only a couple of gases react because of the light in our flow tube. Future Work: In the future it would be very interesting to see how much VOC’s can be obtained from the exhaust using inert sampling canisters. The data will be combined with data from the Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometer, Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometer, Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, and the Fine Particle Counter to be completed by two graduate students Madeline Fuchs, Graham VanderSchelden, under the guidance of Dr. Thomas Jobson, in hopes to fully characterize the behavior of diesel exhaust in the atmosphere.
  • 32. 32 Chapter 4: Climate Change Impacts ENVIRONMENTAL The natural environment is a very fragile and extremely delicate when responding to climate shifts, particularly one that rapidly occurs in less than three centuries. There are large-scale environmental problems that are man-made such as deforestation, and the pollution of water, soil and the air. This section of the chapter aims to analyze the environmental impacts of human-induced climate change to further understand what is happening and how events can be tied to climate change. Rising surface temperatures would be first to look at because they set the stage for future environmental impacts from hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, rising seas and so on. Looking at the warmest years on record shows that each successive year and decade has been warmer than the previous ones. As temperatures continue to increase, many of the environmental problems we face go from bad to worse all over the world. After looking at Earth’s temperature changes, we will see what places around the world are being impacted environmentally from this, as well as show what other environmental challenges we will face for the foreseeable future.
  • 33. 33 4.1.1 Rising Surface Temperature The one way scientists understand that the climate is warming globally is by looking at and compiling changes in the earths surface temperature over periods of time. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the earth’s surface temperature has risen 0.85 °C, from 1880 to 2012 (IPCC, 2013). The observable effects are major: the melting of the polar and Greenland ice sheets, higher water evaporation rates, extreme weather, drought and many more related events are all tangible earth’s increasing temperature from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Below is an illustration on just how much parts of the world have warmed up from one period in time to another, especially within four decades. NOAA. Gov, 2013 Figure 12: Global mean temperature over Land and Oceans from 1880-2000.
  • 34. 34 World Meteorological Organization, 2013 Figure 13: Decadal global combined surface-air temperature over land and sea-surface temperature. Figure 14: Decadal Mean Surface Temperature Hansen. J, 2015
  • 35. 35 Data compiled by The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Climate Data Center and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services, Figure 12 below show just how much the earths surface temperature changed since 1880. The gray vertical bars indicate the range of uncertainty, the red bars representing more accurate temperature ranges with the blue line tracks the changes in the trend. What is interesting primarily about Figure 12 is that temperatures began to increase during the start of world war one from below average through the 1920’s. This time in modern history is known as the “roaring 20’s” post World War I when manufacturing and production kicked into high gear resulting in increased CO2 emissions. Around 1940, global mean temperatures spiked in a positive direction during the start of the second World War in which again, humanity kicked into high gear to produce materials needed to fight the bloodiest war humanity has ever seen. The post World War era, shows subtle oscillations of temperature in the trend through the 1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s as industrial production increased in post-war production. Figure 14 shows a colored illustration of the changes in global temperatures over a series of decades. Between 1961 and 1980, mean temperatures have risen by 0.015°C but increased rapidly by 0.6°C by 2014. The graph shows that most of the warming is occurring in the northern latitude regions of the world. But after 1980, the trend steadily increased, as more countries industrialized and constant consumption became the new norm as demonstrated in figure 13 posts 1980.
  • 36. 36 But, what stands out is that temperatures seem to plateau after 2000. Scientist suggest natural, short-term fluctuations in the climate system that occur on a year-to-year basis or longer—may have played the most pivotal role of all by transferring excess heat from the Earth’s surface into the deep ocean (Kennedy, 2013). Even as temperatures seemed to have leveled out, it is still concerning that over just a century; globally averaged temperature has warmed between 0.6-0.8°C above the 20th century average of 14°C primarily driven by anthropogenic forces (IPCC.gov, 2013). Here, we want to look at the warmest years recorded and see just how much temperatures have increase and look at what the consequences of this increase are. Earth’s average temperature is about 14°C as seen as the base line in Figure 8, and current scientific data points to rapid increases since monitoring began. The largest portion of warming has occurred over the past three decades, with 2014 being the hottest year on record surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.02°C. The decadal global average temperatures in Figure 13 shows that temperatures were 13.68°C between 1881-1890 ad rose to 14.47°C from 2001-2010 which is a 0.79°C increase.
  • 37. 37 Figure 14 Columbia.edu, 2014 Climate change does not necessarily mean that the effects will be the same everywhere. The Northern Hemisphere was fifth warmest in the month of December, while the Southern Hemisphere had its 10th highest December land temperature in the 135-year period of record. Warmer than average temperatures were observed across North and South America; Europe, Africa, and Australia with temperatures climbing more than 5°C Celsius from 1981-2010 (NOAA.gov, 2014). There also was cooler than average temperatures across parts of far East Russia, small regions of southern and southeast Asia and much of Namibia. The issue is not small differences, but long-term change. In the United States, 2011 was a record-breaking year for climate extreme, such as a rise in temperature, precipitation, flooding, and severe weather (NOAA.gov).
  • 38. 38 Between the months of January and October is considered the wettest on record in northeastern states (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012). Anthropogenic climate change that is driving our current climate crisis will worsen and even make environmental problems much more difficult to solve. Water and its importance in our everyday lives is a good example. We use it for agriculture, drinking, energy so on and so forth. But what makes rising temperatures a threat is that the excess heat will further evaporate water from the earth’s surface, especially within soil, rendering it unable to grow crops or hold the nutrients needed, thus increasing and intensifying desertification, droughts, and heat waves. The IPCC predicts that over the next century, there could be a temperature rise of 1.4-5.5°C. Temperatures increasing to these levels will cause glaciers to melt through the century causing sea levels to rise and expand onto low-lying coastal communities and habitats, making adaptation measures extremely difficult. Also, more places around the world where people already suffer from droughts or live in under-arid regions will face prolonged hardships due to lack of water availability and vegetation to support their livelihoods. People will have to find food and shelter elsewhere, and if this occurs on such a large scale it may provoke conflicts within and between groups of people who have and do not have access to basic resources. These are just a few consequences of rising surface temperatures. Overall, taken as a whole, the range of evidence indicates that the net damage cost of climate change is likely to be very significant and to increase over time.
  • 39. 39 4.1.2 Drought/Desertification Another sign that our climate is undergoing a shift is increasing desertification and prolonged droughts. These are also human-caused events primarily from excessive agriculture and water use but nonetheless can be stressed by climate change. Adopted and confirmed by the United Nations Environmental Programme’s Earth Summit in Nairobi and Rio, Desertification is defined as “ arid, semi-arid and dry-subhumid land degradation” that currently covers large portions of Africa, parts of North and South America, Asia and all over the globe (Le Houerou, 1996). Droughts have always been a normal recurrent event in these parts of the world especially as the world heats up. However, an increasing global surface temperature, decreasing rainfall, and higher evaporation and along with human activities will drive further desertification. Dry lands are not spread equally between poor and rich countries: 72% of the global dry land area occurs within developing countries and only 28% within industrial ones (Safriel and Adeel, 2005). According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), globally 54 million km2 or 40% of the land area is occupied by dry lands. Of that total, 12% is in arid regions, 18% in the semi-arid region and 10% in the dry sub- humid region. Dry lands are located throughout Asia (39%), Africa (43%), Oceania (89%), North America (28%), South America (32%), Central America and the Caribbean (58%), and Europe with (24%) of globally shared dry lands, respectively (Koohafkan & Stewart, 2008). The earth’s surface is steadily losing vegetation as soil nutrients and lack of water availability in many places are making the problem much more difficult to manage or even solve. In other words, areas with the most poverty will have the hardest time coping to changes.
  • 40. 40 4.1.3 Sea Level Rise Rising global sea levels is an environmental threat of epic proportions. Glaciers around the world are melting adding to sea level increases among other climate-related events. The resulting effect will be the flooding of low-lying coastal cities and habitats. Because we have never before seen such a thing happening one can say that the oceans are overflowing or spilling over. What this means is that sea levels are encroaching onto land and in many places it has already done so. Nonetheless, the rise and decline in sea levels have occurred throughout the earth’s history and will happen again. It is not a matter of “if” it happens but when, and how long? There is very high confidence within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that sea levels from warm periods during the last three million years exceeded 5 meters (16.4 ft.) above current levels when temperatures was up 2°C warmer than pre- industrial period (Church, 2014). The current goal among the global community is to keep global mean temperatures below the 2°C mark. Even if we were to stop the pollution, we must concern ourselves with the saturation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before its “sinks” are able to absorb it. It is widely agreed that seas are rising, but the extent varies by region, with some areas of the world showing an increase in sea levels, and others showing a decrease. In the 21st century and beyond, sea level change will have a strong regional pattern; with some places experiencing significant deviations of local and regional sea level change from the global mean change.
  • 41. 41 Glaciers all over the world are all showing signs of melting at alarming rate adding to current sea levels making it such an important threat especially in the long- term. Global temperatures at 1.5°C will dictate the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and when completed that is expected to raise sea levels by seven meters. If temperatures then increase between 2 and 4.5°C, there is a potential to trigger the melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet that will eventually raise sea levels by more than 5-6 meters. But one doesn’t have to wait until temperatures climate 4.5°C higher then present levels, because levels above 3°C risk major catastrophic events and a probability of the thermohaline shutting down up to 50% or more (Watkiss, 2005). Everything from coastal communities to larger urban cities all faces the threat of inundation. New York, Los Angeles Tokyo, Shanghai, Rio de Jeneiro, and many more like them are all vulnerable to rising seas (Paskoff, 2009). It is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area, with 70% of the coastlines worldwide projected to experience sea level changes (Gregory, 2013). It would be a disaster on every level of society if we look at extreme scenarios. Using a model called the “Representative Concentration Pathways” or RCP, scientist describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Using this model, the IPCC believes global mean sea level rise is likely (medium confidence) to be in the 5 to 95% range of projections from process based models, which give 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP 2.6, which assumes levels peak between 2010-2020. There is a possible 0.32 to 0.63 m for RCP 4.5, with emissions peaking around 2040, and then declining. There could be a rise of 0.33 to 0.63 m in scenario RCP 6.0, with emissions peaking around
  • 42. 42 2080; and 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP 8.5, which assumes emissions continuing to rise throughout the 21st century, with a rate between 8 to 16 millimeters per year. It isn't just cities that are in danger, it is also the entire coastal ecosystems that protect them that are in danger of being destroyed flooding. These cities and population centers are placed on the coast, which is helpful for trade, but can all be wiped away or severely damaged from rising seawater. Coastal cities will be swallowed with millions of people being displaced. This is a serious call for concern because we know how high sea levels were by looking back at similar climate shifts throughout earth’s history
  • 43. 43 4.1.4 Ocean Acidification Not all the carbon that we emit goes directly into the atmosphere, with a quarter of all anthropogenic CO2 are absorbed by oceans (Siegenthaler and Sarmiento, 1993). Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, the ocean is really one of the planets true wonders. The oceans removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere has undoubtedly helped curb the extent of climate change—but this benefit comes at a cost. These reactions may seem very good at first until you realize that the oceans can only absorb so much without any adverse side effects. But this isn’t the case. The absorption of carbon dioxide is fundamentally changing the chemistry of the ocean by triggering reactions that make seawater more acidic, a phenomenon called ocean acidification. Below is the chemical reaction of ocean acidification: CO2 (g) + H2O (l) → H2CO3 (aq) (1) H2CO3 (aq) ↔ H+ (aq) +HCO3 - (aq) (2) HCO3 - (aq) ↔ H+(aq) + CO3 2- (3) Figure 15- Process of Ocean Acidification (University of Maryland)
  • 44. 44 The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would mix with the water molecules in the ocean and produce carbonic acid, as seen in equation 1. That carbonic acid will break down into hydrogen ions (H+) and bicarbonate ions (HCO3 -), as seen in equation 2. The bicarbonate ions will then break down into hydrogen and carbonate. As more hydrogen is created, the resulting effect is an acidic solution. The ocean has become nearly 30% more acidic than it was at the beginning of the industrial era—a change larger and more rapid than seen in the fossil record going back at least 800,000 years, before the appearance of vertebrates and plants in the fossil record (Bedford, 2005). Seawater currently ranges between 7.8 and 8.2 and is already on average 0.1-pH unit lower than it was prior to the industrial revolution. Because of this there are disruptions in ecosystem services and in the interrelationship between organisms and their environment. Calcifier-organisms with shells or exo-skeletons made from calcium carbonate- are among the most abundant forms of marine life. The ability for marine species to build shells of calcium carbonate is called calcification but as hydrogen ions become more abundant marine species that depend on calcium carbonate will be endangered. An increase in acidity can cause shells to dissolve because the excess hydrogen ions reacts with solid calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and convert it to soluble bicarbonate (HCO3 -) and (Ca2+) ions.
  • 45. 45 From tiny plankton species that form the basis of marine food chains, to the vast coral reefs that provide habitat for many ocean animals, calcifiers are an essential part of many marine ecosystems. For example, pteropods, or tiny sea snail are an important source of food for many species, including fish, seals, and whales. In a series of experiments, pteropod shells were placed in seawater at the pH (acidity) projected for the Southern Ocean by 2100. Within 48 hours, the pteropod shells began to dissolve Many of the physiological processes of oceanic organisms are fine-tuned to operate within a narrow pH range, and outside of that range, the biochemical reactions may be too slow or inefficient to keep the organism healthy. A fish may be able to compensate by eating more, but their eggs and larvae will have limited energy reserves and, therefore, may have less capacity to adjust to more acidic conditions. There will also be a great difficulty for marine organisms to absorb nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, and other elements essential for growth.
  • 46. 46 4.1.5 Loss of Biodiversity/ecosystem services In order for the globe to function and perform to the best of its abilities, biodiversity is essential for providing services and is a crucial support system for our well being. Ecosystems services provides us with food, clean water, medicine, industrial materials, and genetic research for human development and remain a strong pillar in the success in the human species. In the process of understanding extinctions, it is the genetics, breeding and ecosystem diversity that make painting a global extinction picture more complex. But on a regional scale, ecosystems such as estuaries, coral reefs, and coastal and oceanic fish communities are quickly losing populations, species, and entire functional groups (Worm & Barbier, 2006). A 1°C above pre-industrial levels will cause up to a ten percent shift of ecosystem areas worldwide and an increase of 2°C will shift up between 15%-20% worldwide, and anything above that temperature threshold is likely to go above a 20% shift, much more in some regions, with coastal wetlands exceeding a 10% shift (Watkiss, 2005). A decrease in biodiversity may very well result in decrease productivity of the world’s forest that we depend on to absorb the excess carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. It is a “carbon sink” just as the oceans are because of the ability to absorb the greenhouse gas. As the home of two-thirds of all plants and animals living on land, forests are the most bio diverse terrestrial ecosystems (Fleming et al, 2011). It is these plants and animals that provide the ecologic services we depend on. But our needs and desire to “develop” is damaging to the forest and may be doing more harm than good.
  • 47. 47 In Asia, during the 1990’s had a net loss of forest of some 600,000 ha annually but reported a net gain of more than 2.2 million ha per year between 2000-2010 despite continued high rates of net loss in many South and Southeast Asian countries (FAO,2010). In Europe the total loss of forest cover during the last decade still averages around 13 million hectares per year (FAO, 2010), with South America suffering the largest net loss of forests between 2000 and 2010 – about 4.0 million hectares per year – followed by Africa, which lost 3.4 million hectares annually (FAO, 2010. Australia too started suffering from severe droughts and wildfires from 2000-2010 with a net loss of 700,000 hectares of forest in that decade (UNEP, 2011). It is important to note that some countries are resource rich and their economies depend heavily on natural resource extraction. Another critical problem that climate change will exacerbate is pollution. By mining and burning coal and oil, contaminants are finding their way into water supplies, the soil, and in the air. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that about a quarter of the diseases facing mankind today occur due to prolonged exposure to environmental pollution. Environments are exposed to pollutants such sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and many others from the combustion of gasoline in vehicles from our transportation sector and coal from our electricity-generating sector. This is this is proven to be hazardous on the environment and will negatively effect environmental health and productivity.
  • 48. 48 4.2 Social Impact of Climate change The impact of climate change will be widespread and may vary across regions around the world due to geographic locations, the degree of association with climate- sensitive environments, and unique cultural, economic, or political characteristics of particular landscapes and human populations. Social vulnerability and equity are extremely important because some countries may have less capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related hazards and effects. But one thing is for certain--the impact will be felt throughout human society, and countries around the world are feeling the effects now. Environmental changes whether natural or human induced, will cause severe repercussions because of our dependence on it. Environmental changes around the world will influence human behavior and dictate how people can cope with changes in the foreseeable future. This section of this chapter will unravel what a changing climate means for humanity. Who will be affected? How will they be affected? And what is happening now to illustrate this. Various examples from around the world in places such as Asia, which has the largest population, Africa, North and South America, Europe and Australia, will illustrate that the effects of climate change. These effects can be seen today and will become a bigger threat in the future, posing a significant danger to those unable to cope and adapt.
  • 49. 49 4.2.1 Energy It would be best to start with energy. As we mentioned earlier, the burning of fossil fuels and the emitting of carbon dioxide is trapping heat in our upper atmosphere. Energy plays an important role giving us electricity, bringing us water, producing food along with many more benefits. However, the good times may come to an end as fossil fuels are nonrenewable and once they're used up they are gone forever. Since we all depend heavily on these fuels, it is important to note that according to the U.S Energy Information Administration, the world’s energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040, from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) to 820 quadrillion BTU (EIA.gov, 2013). If this trend holds up without, without significant investments in renewable energy, energy resources would be strained sending the entire global economy into a tailspin and initiating global conflicts for already scarce resources. It is true that not everyone around the world consumes energy like the average American, but it is noteworthy that these increases in consumption will come mostly from developing nations such as China, India and Brazil as their economies continue grow. Again, one cannot stress enough how important energy is to humanity. Everything takes energy and being extremely reliant on dirty non-renewable fuels will be reflected as a societal cost. Simply trying to live will have to be accomplished with great difficulty because of higher energy cost meaning a higher cost of living. We will discuss that more in detail later, but it seems that cheap and abundant fossil fuels are still the energy heavyweights until it is no longer feasible to obtain those fuels. As a global hunger for cheap energy continue to grow, the problems will become much larger and unstable.
  • 50. 50 4.2.2 Food and Water It is known that it takes energy to produce food, and provide water but if that energy source gets expensive what tends to happen is that food prices will increase and water will decline in supply as well. Now, let’s take this a step further. What would become of society if food prices spike so much that access to it becomes much more difficult? People will begin to react with extreme consequences when daily needs can no longer be met, with nations around the world scrambling for food, water and stability. Higher average temperatures of 2.5°C in 2080 could result in 50 million additional people at risk of hunger. With a 3°C rise, developing countries, mostly those with the most of the population, will see the food deficit double (Watkiss, 2005). For many regions already under water-stress, global mean temperatures above 1.5°C will lead to more decreases in the water supply. This means as temperatures increase, water availability will lessen meaning that a 2-2.5°C or more temperature increase will put between 2.4 and 3.5 billion additional person at risk (Watkiss, 2005). The United Nations estimates that by 2050 the world will need to find a way to feed more than nine billion people-- approximately two billion more than live on the planet today. The lack of food production and accessibility is becoming clearer every day. The food and agriculture organization defines food security as ‘all people at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active life’ (FAO, 1996). The UN considered four elements of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability-- all of which are in dire jeopardy if we do not address climate change.
  • 51. 51 However, food security may seem unattainable for many people, especially those on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum. Approximately 265 million of the 915 million undernourished people worldwide are located in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2009). No continent will be struck as severely by the impact of climate change as Africa. Because of its geographical position, the continent will be particularly vulnerable due to the considerably limited adaptive capacity, exacerbated by widespread poverty and existing low levels of development. This will be a further issue in light of a warmer planet with many of the crops southern Africans depend on may be in decline because of global climate change, further causing instability within an already fragile area. By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress; yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by 2020; agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised (IPCC, 2007). The report goes on to say that yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by half severely compromising access to food. In an analytical report by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University, 14 countries in African continent fell prone to food riots between 2006 and 2008. These riots swept across the continent, from Egypt and Tunisia in the North, to Burkina Faso and Senegal in the west, and Madagascar and Zimbabwe (Berazneva &Lee, 2011). These riots were caused by a sudden spike in oil and food prices, also around time of the global financial crisis that was felt around the world.
  • 52. 52 To make matters worse, the rise in surface temperature will result in more evapotranspiration that will lower soil moisture levels meaning that some cultivated areas around Africa will become unsuitable for crop growing. This will not only occur in Africa, but also around the world and will most directly affect those whose entire lives revolve around agriculture and food production. If global temperatures continue to rise unchecked damages to global agriculture will be more prominent and even irreversible. 4.2.3 Health Environmental health corresponds directly with human health and if the environment isn’t in good shape, it will eventually and surely get reflected in how we live. Because our dependence on fossil fuels is so great that there seems to be divergence between economic globalization and the connection between climate change and one’s health. Adverse health effects can occur directly from changes in temperature and precipitation and in the occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires; and indirectly by ecological disruptions such as crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors or even through social responses such as the displacement of populations (IPCC.ch, 2014). We understand that climate change will bring forth many environmental changes and we must ask ourselves, how will it impact our health? The health of the human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of global warming, but this sensitivity won’t influence the emergence of a new disease. Nonetheless, the higher probability of increased food, water, and vector- borne diseases are expected to become more common, even in places where it was once non-existent, mainly in northern latitudes as they become warmer and wetter. Malaria, for example, is a disease transmitted by mosquitos mainly found in the tropical and
  • 53. 53 subtropical regions of the world. It kills about 1 million children each year with 2.4 billion people living under this threat (Fischer and Bialek, 2002). With global temperatures to rise to 2.3°C by 2080 puts up to 270 million at risk; and another one degree rise would put up to 330 million at risk (Watkiss, 2005). Africa will continue to carry the greatest burden of the disease and in particular Eastern and Southern Africa. Mountainous regions in South Asia are likely to experience an increase in transmission the same goes for highland region of South East Asia and pacific countries. On the other hand places like the Europe, Canada and New Zealand are unlikely to be affected in the near future. This also may be a result of superior climates and even medical treatments between those more prone and those who are not. Diseases from ticks were also found in parts of Sweden increased in response to a succession of warmer winters, although this interpretation remains contested it is the geographical range of ticks that transmit Lyme borreliosis and viral encephalitis has extended northwards in Sweden and increased in altitude in the Czech Republic (McMichael et.al, 2006). These extensions have accompanied recent trends in climate change. Health hazard due to climate change will be a result of warmer temperatures and extreme weather events that will mostly affect those already with pre-existing health concerns such as cardiovascular disease and mental illness superior among children. Also, epidemiological studies of extreme temperatures in Europe and North America has shown a positive association between heat waves and mortality amongst elderly people, with mainly women being most affected. During the extreme heat wave of August 2003, there were approximately 30,000 deaths as a result throughout Europe, especially in France (McMichael et.al, 2006). In Paris, many nursing homes for example were not
  • 54. 54 well equipped to deal with a heat wave because of the lack of air-conditioning and may not have promptly given rehydrating fluids to those live in these homes. Flooding can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience, and social organization. Some health consequences arise during or soon after a flooding such as injuries, communicable diseases or exposure to toxic pollutants, where as others such as malnutrition and mental health disorders occur later. Excessive precipitation initiates entry of human sewage and animal waste into waterways and drinking water supplies increasing the likely hood of water-borne diseases.
  • 55. 55 4.2.4 Population growth/Poverty Another social constraint that may affect how we combat climate change will be a growth in the population size resulting in a further appetite for already scarce resources, food and fuel. These events will force people to migrate to other places to accommodate their needs. Over the last century, greenhouse gas emissions have risen in tandem with an ever-larger human population; the curve of soaring carbon dioxide emissions is neatly matched by the curve of world population growth (O’Neill, 2010). On the other hand, not every person on earth consumes at the same rate as lets say, the average American, who have the highest consumption rate per capita in the world. Demographic trends have an important connection to both the challenges and solutions to the problem of climate change. Rapid population growth exacerbates vulnerability to the negative consequences of climate change, and exposes growing numbers of people to climate risk. A slower population growth would indeed lead to lower emissions, making climate-change problems a bit easier to solve. A growing global population and different weather events will in fact make our climate problem worse as people begin to migrate bringing diseases, anger, fear and hunger with them. A great example is Bangladesh, where land degradation and scarcity in have been growing since the 1950’s. Those that are poor and dependent on agriculture became less able to make a living and frequent storms, floods, and droughts made things worst. Between 12-17 million Bangladeshis moved to India. Another example that is closer to home is the famous dust bowl of the 1930’s, initiated by strong winds, a prolonged drought, and aggressive land cultivating that forced 2.5 million people to leave the Great Plains region of the United States as farm output and quality of life fell (Reuveny, 2007).
  • 56. 56 This shows that environmental factors has a major influence on human activity and movement and will occur more often with a higher growth in population. As more nations look to uplift their people into higher standards of living without adequate clean energy sources, more fossil fuels will be utilized. Most of the growth in the world’s population is taking place in urban areas in low-and middle-income nations, and it is likely to continue. Because cities contribute a large portion of greenhouse gas emissions, assessing this contribution from the perspective of where GHG’s are produced or from consumption perspective is important. If cities concentrate energy intensive production, this will push up their average GHG emissions per person meaning that cities with heavy industry or fossil fuelled power stations can have higher CO2 emissions per person. Today, over 2 billion people are struggling to survive on an income of less than $1 a day. Moving 1 billion people out of absolute poverty as stated in the Millennium Development Goals means that by 2015 there will still be the same number of people, if not more, in absolute poverty because of demographic increases (O’Brien, 2008). People with low-income is only one component of poverty of the multiple and interactive deprivations of human capabilities that sustains it. Millions of people around the world lack instrumental and substantive freedoms, including economic opportunities, political freedoms, social facilities, transparency guarantees, and protective security; this lack of freedom extends the lack of basic freedom to survive. The suffering of millions of people through unnecessary hardships, illness, misery and death—they are vulnerable.
  • 57. 57 4.3: Economic Impact of Climate change Economic globalization and climate change are both considered important areas for contemporary research, but it is important that we consider these two issues together. As our world becomes more interconnected, activities taking place in one side of the world will have an effect on the other. This section of the chapter will look at what the various cost of climate change will be and how these cost can accumulate. A changing climate will eventually become more or too burdensome, especially for under-developed countries as it has weak economic ability in comparison to the developed countries in order to minimize the impact of climate change. The economy is a very vital and important component of human society and it has given us a lot of prosperity to say the least. But without an environment that is healthy, intact, and sustainable, the economy will inevitably collapse. This is simply because everything we have came from somewhere and we must realize that the environment is truly valuable, not what we can extract and produce from it. A disruption in daily life related to change can mean lost work and school days and harm trade, transportation, fisheries, energy production, and tourism. Severe rainfall events and snowstorms can delay planting and harvesting, cause power outages, congest traffic, delay air travel, and otherwise make it difficult for people to go about their daily lives. Climate-related health also reduces productivity; such as extreme heat lessening construction or even higher allergy levels and more air pollution leading to lost school and workdays.
  • 58. 58 4.3.1: Agriculture Agriculture contributes merely three percent to global gross domestic product and was one-third of the contribution a few decades ago. More than 25 percent of GDP is derived from many least-developed countries (FAO, 2005) The World Bank, in 2007 identified five main factors through which climate change will effect the productivity of agricultural crops: changes in precipitation, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization, climate variability, and surface water runoff. The production of crops is directly influenced by precipitation and temperature, and it is a precipitation that determines the availability of freshwater and the level of soil moisture, which are critical inputs for crop growth. But as the climate begins to warm and patterns begin to vary from place to place, crop production may face decline in various parts of the world with heat stress likely to affect subtropics/tropics regions under a 1.7°C increase (Watkiss, 2005). A study of Asian agriculture, by Yale University, found that Asia is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. The study explains the variations of observed net revenue per hectare of cropland. They found that if surface temperatures were to rise 1.5° C, there would be small aggregate effects on crops, but if temperatures were to climb to 3°C warmer above 1960-1990 levels, there would be a net loss of $84 billion dollars in revenue just in China alone (Mendelsohn, 2013). Other Asian countries, such as Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Kyrgystan, Laos, Nepal, and Turkmenistan, are predicted to lose more than 20% of their crop net revenue. India alone is responsible for two thirds of the lost net revenue in Asia (Mendelsohn, 2013). It is important to look at how climate change will impact Asia, since it produces two-thirds of the world’s food and is clearly a place that deserves a lot of attention.
  • 59. 59 A seemingly small rise in temperature can cost Asia a lot of money, and it would further devastate their agriculture sector if planetary warming continues to go unchecked. The study also found that in a 3°C warmer scenario, overall damages rises to $195 billion, representing a 28% loss of net revenue. But this isn’t all bad news for many countries in the region: Afghanistan, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and Tajikistan all gain more net revenue with the additional warming even though they will be relatively small (Mendelsohn, 2013). Also, yields increases in Europe and the United States if temperatures remain below the 2°C threshold but beyond that, there will be a decline in output (Watkiss, 2005). Rising temperatures are too causing devastation to Africa’s already-stressed agricultural sector. Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected (IPCC.Ch, 2007).
  • 60. 60 4.3.2: Climate Insurance Insurance is something many people have in case of a sudden emergency and hope we wouldn’t have to ever use it. It is organized either through private markets, publicly, or public-private partnerships. It internalizes catastrophe risk costs prior to catastrophic events, reducing the economic impact of weather-related and other disasters to individuals, enterprises and governments—thus stabilizing income and consumption, and decreasing societal vulnerability. A large portfolio of uncorrelated and relatively small risk can accurately average a loss per policy and can be predicted and charged accordingly. Besides spreading risk over a diversified insured population, insurance spreads risk over time instead. But this will not be the case for infrastructure prone to climate change such as homes, cars, and anything else that can be insured but vulnerable to being destroyed. Natural disasters will be an insurance company’s worst nightmare as it becomes more frequent and the most expensive of infrastructure sit mainly in vulnerable places, like on the coast or in the path of tornadoes for example. But natural disasters will be very expensive for insurance companies and climate change itself is a threat to these companies and the broader economy (Mills, 2007).
  • 61. 61 The insurance sector now finds itself on the frontlines of climate change, meaning that companies will now have try an limit their exposure to high-risk areas along coastlines and areas prone to wildfires. Allstate, for instance, was prompted to cancel or not renew its policies in many Gulf Coast states with hurricanes wiping out all of its profits in had generated in 75 years of selling homeowner insurance. Also, in Florida, they have cut the number of homeowners’ policies from 1.2 million to just 400,000 (Mills, 2007). These companies are aware of the threat climate change pose and will take necessary action to limit their exposure. When hurricane Sandy pummeled the east coast of the United States and the Caribbean in October of 2012, it exposed millions of people and billions of dollars worth of assets to the sorts of hazards that might be expected to increase as a result of climate change. An estimated 1.8 million structures and homes were destroyed or damaged, with economic losses exceeding $65 billion. Among the business most negatively affected by Sandy, were tourism, which accounted for a loss of more than $1billion dollars and 10,000 jobs. Hurricane Katrina too, was an expensive storm in which $40 billion in claims filed, an amount equivalent to almost half of the worldwide catastrophic claims made in 2005 (Liverman & Glasmeier, 2014). Europe’s largest insurer, Allianz, stated that climate change stands to increase losses by 37% within just a decade and losses in a bad year could top $1 trillion (Mills, 2007). This weather related disasters affect many at the same time and violates the principle of uncorrelated risk, leading to large losses that are more probable, a loss of variance is greater, and tail risk is much higher (IPCC.Ch, 2014).
  • 62. 62 4.3.3: Infrastructure Global infrastructure will have great difficulty coping with climate change as sea levels rise, floods occur, droughts, wildfires and extreme storms would require extensive repair. This will include homes, roads, bridges, railroad tracks, airport runways, power lines, dams, levees, and seawalls. In a study regarding the future cost for Alaska’s infrastructure from climate change estimates that it could add another $3.6-$6.1 billion (+10% to +20% above normal wear and tear) to future cost from now to 2030, and by 2080, those cost can range from $5.6-$7.6 billion (Larsen et al. 2007). This accruing cost will be commonplace for infrastructure around the globe. Here in the U.S, a Gulf Coast study found that approximately 2400 miles of major roads, 246 miles of railway, 3 airports and three-quarters of freight facilities would be inundated by a four-foot rise in sea level. It also found that more than half of the major roads and all of the ports were susceptible to flooding from a storm surge of just 18 feet. Katrina’s surge was estimated at 28 feet at landfall. The effects of damaged infrastructure on essential services pose an even more complex set of challenges and lessons about the interdependence on infrastructure, its vulnerabilities and its impact on society and the economy.
  • 63. 63 4.4: Politics of climate change: The first global climate conference took place on February 1979, in Geneva, Switzerland. Leaders from all over the world began to hold discussions around the implications of climate change. This set the stage for future conversations at the local, national, and international levels about climate change and what it means for the future of humanity, and how we can start adapting and mitigating the serious impacts to come. But within this realm of dealing with climate change there is a complex web of those who shape human activity warming the planet and the relationship they have with the regulators who regulate such activities. This section of the chapter will explore the following questions: who makes environmental decisions? How are the decisions made? And how do is science incorporated in policy decisions. Looking at how different sectors of nations economies depend on degrading practices such as fishing, and mining, for example that is perpetuating climate change, trying to grow their economies. The political arena around climate change is often lopsided, complicated and lacks recognition of true implications of climate change. The discussion revolving around climate change comes mainly from nations, most of who are capable of coping with future climate-related disasters to be the primary voices in the environmental-political arena.
  • 64. 64 Science and policy often times are at odds because it tells us to bring down our over consumption and emissions. But that approach conflicts with the long held economic belief of growth at any cost. Lets look at the actors in the environmental arena from local, national, and international levels and analyze the interest involved when making environmental decisions and see how various influences may be doing more harm than good. States are what nations are called when discussing climate change within the United Nations. They are the most important actors in global environmental politics. They adopt the broad economic, regulatory trade, and development policies that impact the environment. They decide which issues receive formal consideration by the international community and climate change has surely become one (Chasek, 2009). At a national level, climate change is debated as if it is something that is still debatable. This is why making political decisions to address climate change is seen as “harming the economy” and that addressing it may be the worst thing we can do. Any environmental move forward will have to be swayed by the public and there is a far and wide climate denial body that represents the very actors who benefits greatly from business practices that is changing the climate. The conversation around climate change from a public perception tends to be partial and disparate. There is a loose connection between what the evidence shows and the potential impacts that will occur. This is largely imparted because of well organized and well-funded disinformation campaigns to rally against climate change mitigation, and this have been occurring over decades in spite of the overwhelming evidence and consensus. For example, Koch Brother industries—a company rooted in chemical and
  • 65. 65 fossil fuel operations-- have spent at least $80 million to groups denying climate change science since 1997 (Greenpeace.org). Many opponents of climate change also believe and will argue that policies will limit individual freedoms if governments step in and begin dictating how one should begin interacting with the environment. Also, companies that makes a huge profit off of environmental exploitation such as the fossil fuel and energy industry are at the frontlines of the denial campaign, and spend large sums of money to alter public perception and mitigation policies that may hurt their short-term profits. Lets not forget about the medias role in talking about climate change. Their job is to take scientific literature, disseminate it and put it into terms average people can understand. But over the years this seems not to be the case. Many media outlets pit climate change believers against deniers as if both arguments are equal in which they are not. Scientist all over the world says that the climate is changing and it is human activity that is causing it. But somehow there is this idea that denying climate change is just as credible. Many politicians in the United States argue that climate change still debatable, but also all over the world many national interests are at odds with global environmental agendas because it often times reflect the interest of the dominant socio-economic elites. In 1995, Indonesia allocated control over a large portion of its forest resources to twenty Indonesian conglomerates that then controlled more than 63% of the 62 million hectares of the country’s timber (Chasek, 2009). These businesses had close ties with the family of former president Suharto, which in turn allowed the businesses to ignore logging regulations and dominate the regimes forest policy. In-fact, Indonesia opposed proposals
  • 66. 66 for new international norms on forest management in the 1990’s and agreed with the Canadian premise—that each major timber-exporting country to create its own Eco labeling system. A nation that is influenced by big business or a business with conflicting interest with environmental policies will make international negotiations sluggish because one’s economy depends on specific resources.
  • 67. 67 Chapter 5: The Green Economy/solutions My research for a steady, green, and sustainable economic system because it can uplift many people out of poverty and restore the planet to a healthier state and economically intelligent. The United Nations defines the green economy as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while reducing environmental risk and ecological scarcities (UNEP, 2011). People per se do not cause human-induced GHG emissions in general, but the specific human activities by specific people or groups of people are causing this climatic change. If this is the case then we should have a societal structure in place or at least begin putting one in place that promotes heavier investment into clean energy and new social behaviors. A sustainable economy will encompass social, political, economic, and environmental factors because each one overlaps with the other. From a social standpoint, no one should be left out of the new economy regardless of race, economic standing, or gender. This should be an all inclusive and non-discriminatory, making everyone feel like they are citizens of earth and have an obligation to protect it. I say this because there are immediate social issues such as racism, classism, and gender oppression that will hinder the climate movement at national and international levels. Tackling climate change can and will bring an end to immediate social issues because it shows that humanity can come together regardless of what history tells us about who we are and our places in it.
  • 68. 68 A new alternative economic system and way of governance will affect how quickly we can combat climate change. Indeed, government will play a major role in this transition by creating an inclusive green economy—by setting standards, spurring innovation, realigning existing investments, and making new investments. This will ensure that we make the transition rapidly, while protecting and benefiting our most vulnerable populations. Van Jones, the author of “The Green Collar Economy” says this can happen in three steps: first by regulating conduct in which governments sets the rules of the new economy, lays down the law, establishes standards, and tells members of society what they can and cannot do. Second, they can invest money from direct spending, to offering incentives, to underwriting risk. Lastly, they can convene leaders— spurring the formation of new collaborative institutions that solves problems by bringing together public, private, and nonprofit stakeholders. All levels of government will have to remove barriers to green growth because we have solved big problems in the past and we most certainly can do it now. In 2010, new investment in clean energy is estimated to have reached a record high of US$243 billion, up from US$186 billion in 2009 and US$180 billion in 2008 (Dril & Tilburg 2011). Countries such as China, Brazil, and India have seen an increasing growth in renewables because of they are emerging economies with large populations that need employment within this sector. The costs of adaptation are estimated to reach $50-170 billion per year by 2020, and if we are to keep global temperatures below the 2C mark, the global economy will have to commit $1.7 trillion. Every year of delay in bringing the energy sector on the 450ppm trajectory would add $500 billion to the global cost for mitigating climate change (Dril & Tilburg, 2011). With
  • 69. 69 the proper investments not only would many nations become energy independent, but they will have a better work force in an area still under developed. There are many people throughout the world that do not have access to a job or an education, making this the perfect opportunity to give people economic stability and security. The United States, for example, spends at least $600 billion dollars on military- related expenditure--more than the next ten countries in line combined (NationalDefence. Gov, 2014). But one must ask, is that amount of money for defense truly necessary? Also, we give away massive tax breaks to the same companies causing the problem while solar and wind industries are left behind begging and pleading—just to get extensions on their modest tax credits. I believe this should not be the case especially for a wealthy nation such as the United States. The subsidies must come to an end and money must be redirected at clean technologies research, poverty eradication, education, and production throughout the nation. Paying people to grow plants and trees that absorb carbon dioxide would help pull gases from the atmosphere while, at the same time cutting emissions. Around the world there are many people who need work and are looking for income. Why not give these people a chance to come together with their governments to implement new green strategies that allows them to grow plants, fruits, and vegetables, or get and maintain their own energy independence? We can allocate money to poor nations to help them combat climate change by giving them the technological capabilities to do so. Developing and under-developed nations holds the largest portion of the global population and future emissions will come from those countries; why not help them grow without having to
  • 70. 70 pollute? They do not have to be like the U.S and the west that had to get “dirty” in order to get “clean”. Climate change and constant environmental degradation are the biggest threats facing humanity today. In the long term, oceans will continue to rise, become more acidic, and flood low-lying coastal communities and habitats. Short-term threats such as extreme weather, threats to agriculture, water shortages all pose serious threats to humanity and we must try our hardest and act swiftly to avoid the worst possible effects. Our current economic structure that depends heavily on fossil fuels is driving our climate problems and we must alter the way our economic and monetary policies influence the global environment. We should strive for a green, stead and sustainable economy, and one that benefits the earth and all of it inhabitants. A global green new deal must be reached before we hit environmental and climatic tipping points that will be irreversible. A green, steady, and sustainable economy is one that puts the environment first and allows for the global economy to prosper. According to the Brundtland commission of 1987, sustainability is defined as “ …development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Redclift, 2005). But one may still remain critical of this definition by analyzing this a bit closer. Meeting the needs of the present is systematically unsustainable, and that the needs of the worlds poorest are being met are in complete disparities and extreme inadequacy around the world. This has many economic, social, environmental, technological, and political inequities especially in a fast moving society.
  • 71. 71 Also, one does not know what the needs of future generations are or will be because it is shaped by our current actions. Also, one has to ask why aren’t “needs” met in underserved, impoverished nations around the world, with 1.2 billion people living in extreme poverty. There are billions of people without access to food, water, shelter, medicine, and other “needs” for survival, so I do not believe that this definition cannot hold up as truly “sustainable”. The concept of sustainability nonetheless, has evolved and was once seen as an operational concern that consists largely as defensive efforts to reduce a company’s environmental footprint and cut waste. But a more strategic stance is needed and the focus must shift from cost reductions to innovation, and initiatives begin to consider whole value chains. The overall argument is simply how will the future of business be done? Sustainability should be seen as a common global development system that values high quality living within and throughout the very fabric of society. Lets develop and put forth an economic system that contributes to the environment, a global communal economic developmental system that lives within the means of the earth that uses natural processes to generate energy, restoring the health of degraded environments. Let’s not forget to use our technology to measure energy efficiency, monitor the quality and quantity of environmental processes and goods. Humanity cannot truly be sustainable if we do not contribute back to the same environments that we take from. We must live within the means of the earth for present generations to get through while contributing back for the next generations and so on. We can plant trees, make our own energy, grow our own food without chemicals; we have
  • 72. 72 the technology to make energy because of mimicking environmental processes or even enhance environmental productivity. Solar panels, wind turbines, greener cities, top energy efficient policies are all options that we can and start implementing at a global level, one in which can all enhance the productivity of people without harming the environment. This sustainable economy is an economy that should not be profit-driven because we clearly see what even competing for the most money has already done to people, the planet, and its resources. It emphasizes the crucial point that economic growth and environmental stewardship can be complementary strategies, challenging the still common view that there are significant tradeoffs between the two objectives. There must be a new system in place that caters to the environment but adds to it instead of taking away from the goods it produces. We have spent many years degrading and even destroying the environment and it will be extremely expensive to try and restore it to a healthier and functioning order. Of course, the bounty of nature is priceless, but the unfortunate effects of our seeing these inputs to well being as incalculable has been that they are treated as free. It is this economic and systematic mindset that creates problems when resources turn out not to be limitless or indestructible. Ending our dependence on fossil fuels will not only curb our emissions but also slow the rate of our warming even though it may not completely reach equilibrium more many more centuries or even in millennia. We can cut our emissions sharply and even bring it down to an extreme minimum. That will be very helpful and we can implement economic incentives and mandates for companies and people as well to do the same.
  • 73. 73 My view of a sustainable economy from a social perspective is one in which we as humans spend our time rebuilding and contributing to the planet instead of taking away from it. We can give back more than what we take so that future generations can have a habitable planet and it be in better shape then when previous generations found it. I strongly believe that all people of the world want to establish a higher quality of living and we can most certainly accomplish that. Our future generations depend on it.