20200217 lezing jones_welkom in het antropoceen_knooppunt_kortrijk

Welkom in het Antropoceen:
(over)leven binnen planetaire grenzen
Dr. Ir. Peter Tom Jones (SIM² KU Leuven), Kortrijk, 17-02-2020
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
1

“… Scientists have a moral
obligation to clearly warn
humanity of any catastrophic
threat and to “tell it like it is.”
(…), we declare, with more
than 11,000 scientist
signatories from around the
world, clearly and
unequivocally that planet
Earth is facing a climate
emergency.”
(W. Ripple et al., BioScience, 2019)
2/12/2019Jones-KULeuven
2

“…the consideration of tipping
points helps to define that we
are in a climate emergency
and strengthens this year’s
chorus of calls for urgent
climate action — from
schoolchildren to scientists,
cities and countries.”
(Lenton et al., Nature, 28-11-2019)
3

7
“This is a disastrous, profoundly distressing outcome – the worst I have ever seen. At a time when
scientists are queuing up to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, and
schoolchildren taking to the streets in their millions, what we have here in Madrid is a betrayal of
people across the world. It is disgraceful and governments are simply not doing their job of
protecting the planet.” (M. Adow, Director Power Shift Africa)
COP25,
December,
Madrid
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters

8
“This is a disastrous, profoundly distressing outcome (…) At a time when scientists are queuing up
to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, and schoolchildren taking to the
streets in their millions, what we have here in Madrid is a betrayal of people across the world. It is
disgraceful and governments are simply not doing their job of protecting the planet.” (M. Adow,
Director Power Shift Africa)
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters
COP25,
December,
Madrid

“The scientific evidence is clearer day by
day [with respect to] how quickly and
disastrous the consequences of
unrestrained climate change are
affecting us. (…) I am just reporting
what is actually happening. It is urgent,
it is essential; it is undeniable that we
need to take action. The risks will only
increase, as the earth gets hotter and the
climate gets more disturbed.”
(28-1-2020)
9

“The scientific evidence is clearer day by
day [with respect to] how quickly and
disastrous the consequences of
unrestrained climate change are
affecting us. (…) I am just reporting
what is actually happening. It is urgent,
it is essential; it is undeniable that we
need to take action. The risks will only
increase, as the earth gets hotter and the
climate gets more disturbed.”
(28-1-2020)
10
Frans Timmermans
(Executive Vice President Timmermans,
European Green Deal, Conference first
European Climate Law, 28-1-2020)

Cleantech wordt steeds goedkoper
11
Emissions Gap
Report, 2019
(UNEP)

17/12/2019
De Bond, 27-11-2019
Jones-KULeuven
12

We leven niet in een
“tijdperk van
verandering” dan wel in
een “verandering van
[geologisch] tijdperk”
Cf. Jan Rotmans, Verandering van tijdperk, 2014
14

Source infographic:
Steffen et al., 2005 [IGBP]
15

Welkom in het
Antropoceen
The Great Unraveling
16

Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord
Source:
Adaptation of Steffen et al.,
Science, 2015 - Update from
Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
17

Source:
9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire
grenzen
18

25% van de wereldbevolking lijdt aan
waterstress
Source: WRI, 2019
19

België (lees: Vlaanderen) staat op nr.
23 in de waterstress-rangorde
Source: WRI, 2019
20

Source:
grenzen
2 kengrenzen (core planetary
boundaries):
• Biosfeerintegriteit
• Klimaatverandering
21

Source:
grenzen
boundaries):
BIO
22

1 miljoen soorten worden met uitsterven
bedreigd (UN IPBES, 2019)
“The biosphere, upon
which humanity as a
whole depends, is
being altered to an
unparalleled degree
across all spatial
scales. Biodiversity
(…) is declining faster
than at any time in
human history.”
(6-5-2019, SFP-
IPBES, 2019
BIO
23

Source: SFP IPBES, 2019
24

Mondiale plastic crisis …
Source & credits images: (left) South Carolina Aquarium, 2019 - (right) Pestpillis.hu
25

Source:
grenzen
boundaries):
CLI
26

Mondiale broeikasgasuitstoot blijft
stijgen (i.p.v. te dalen)
Source: Guardian
Graphic based on
data from Global
Carbon Project
CLI
27

[Intermezzo: “Global energy-related
CO2 emissions stable in 2019: IEA”]
28

IPCC SRCCL (2019) toont
opwarming atmosfeer…
Source: SPM Figure 1, IPCC SRCCL (2019)
29

IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties
voor stijging zeeniveau…
Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019)
30

IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties
voor stijging zeeniveau…
Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019)
31

IPCC SR15 (2018) toonde aan waarom
zelfs 2°C opwarming te veel is
Source: Figure
3.20, IPCC SR15
[Special Report
Global Warming of
1.5 ºC]
“to avoid dangerous
climate change by
limiting global warming
to well below 2°C and
pursuing efforts to limit it
to 1.5°C”
(Paris Agreement, 2015)
33

Review in Science bevestigt de noodzaak
om opwarming beneden 1.5°C te houden
Source: Hoegh-
Guldberg et al.,
Science, 2019
“to avoid dangerous
climate change by
limiting global warming
to well below 2°C and
pursuing efforts to limit it
to 1.5°C”
(Paris Agreement, 2015)
34

Opwarming van meer dan 1,5°C
brengt de SDGs in gevaar!
Source: Hoegh-
Guldberg et al.,
Science, 2019
35

MAAR… we zitten op koers richting
opwarming van 3°C tegen 2100
Source:
Climate Action
Tracker
36

Source:
UNEP, 2019
Jones-KULeuven
40
17/12/2019
The Emissions
Gap
3°C
tegen
2100 !

De hamvraag: is er een planetair
kantelpunt?
Source: Lenton et al., Nature, 2019
Jones-KULeuven
41
17/12/2019

Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting
“Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand?
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
42

PNAS, 2018
“(..) the Earth System may be approaching a
planetary threshold that could lock in a
continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter
conditions—Hothouse Earth.
(…) a pathway that could not be reversed,
steered, or substantially slowed.
Where such a threshold might be is uncertain,
but it could be only decades ahead at a
temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above
preindustrial, (…).
43

PNAS, 2018
but it could be only deacades ahead at a
44

PNAS, 2018
but it could be only decades ahead at a
45

VN Rapport over “Climate
Apartheid” (HRC, 25 Juni 2019)
“We have reached a point
where the best-case outcome
is widespread death and
suffering by the end of this
century, and the worst case
puts humanity on the brink of
extinction”
(Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur
on extreme poverty and human rights)
46

“We have reached a point
where the best-case outcome
is widespread death and
suffering by the end of this
century, and the worst case
puts humanity on the brink of
extinction”
(Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur
on extreme poverty and human rights)
47

Het alternatief:
planetair
rentmeesterschap
The Great Turning
48

Planetair rentmeesterschap 
“Stabilised Earth” toestand
PNAS, 2018
“The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires
deliberate management of humanity’s
relationship with the rest of the Earth
System (..).
We suggest that a deep transformation
based on a fundamental reorientation of
human values, equity, behavior,
institutions, economies, and technologies
is required.”
49

Planetair rentmeesterschap 
“Stabilised Earth” toestand
PNAS, 2018
“The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires
deliberate management of humanity’s
relationship with the rest of the Earth
System (..).
We suggest that a deep transformation
based on a fundamental reorientation of
human values, equity, behavior,
institutions, economies, and technologies
is required.”
50

Ingrediënten voor een ernstig
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
140 onderzoekers
120 pagina’s
27 maatregelen
https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl
[Kernpanel voor Klimaat en
Duurzaamheid, 14-5-2019]
52

Ingrediënten voor een ernstig
Klimaatneutrale
energie en
industrie
Samenlevings
-opbouw
Natuurlijke
ecosystemen
beschermen en
uitbreiden
Omslag in
landgebruik
voor wonen,
mobiliteit &
voeding
Duurzame
productie en
consumptie
Samenhangend
beleid
Wetenschap &
innovatie
140 onderzoekers
120 pagina’s
27 maatregelen
53

Technology alone will not save us….
140 researchers
120 pages
27 measures
Jones-KULeuven
54
2/12/2019
Source: LPR 2014, WWF

Maar is wel nodig…
55
New battery
technologies for
e-mobility &
energy storage
New resource-
efficient e-motors
for bikes, buses,
cars & ships
Carbon Capture
and Utilisation
Biobased,
recyclable
plastics
Magnetic cooling
devices
Advanced solar
cells & CSP
Hydrogen
steelmaking
Electrification of
metallurgy

Financiering via Horizon
Europe
56
Source: EC, Horizon Europe, 2019

Europe
57
€ 100 billion
35% for
climate-
related R&I

Europe
58
€ 100 billion
35% for
climate-
related R&I

Financiering via ETS
Innovation Fund
59
Source: EC, Climate
Action, 2019
€ 10 billion
100% for
climate &
energy-
related R&I

Financiering via Moonshot
Programma (VL)
60
Source: Catalisti, 2019
€ 200 million
100% for climate &
energy-related R&I

Over kosten en baten
van klimaatbeleid
& kansen voor lokale besturen
61

Wat is de kost van Business as
Usual?
Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate
Change, 2006
5-20% van het
mondiaal BNP…
62

Wat is de kost van een ernstig*
klimaatbeleid?
Stern Review on the
Change, 2006
2006 rapport:
1% van het
BNP
2008 update:
2% van het
BNP
* Stabilisatie bij 500-550 ppm CO2(eq.)
63

Wat is de kost van een ernstig*
klimaatbeleid?
Stern Review on the
Change, 2006
2006 rapport:
1% van het
BNP
2008 update:
2% van het
BNP“The Stern Review's main
conclusion is that the benefits
of strong, early action on
climate change far outweigh
the costs of not acting.” * Stabilisatie bij 500-550 ppm CO2(eq.)
64

Vandaag, meer dan 10 jaar later,
zegt Lord Stern:
65

Economen schenken klare wijn: there
is no alternative
66

Economen schenken klare wijn: there
is no alternative
Investeringskosten
Jaarlijkse investering: ~2-3%
BNP (cf. klimaatneutraliteit
tegen 2050)
Financiële voordelen
Vermeden kosten t.g.v.
klimaatschade (> 5-20% BNP)
Terugverdieneffecten en/of
secundaire voordelen (lokaal!)
67

Lokale secundaire voordelen van
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
68

Gezonde lucht en minder
lawaai & “waterslimme”,
leefbare steden
en vermeden kosten
69

Waterslimme
steden
combineren
mitigatie- en
adaptatiemaat-
regelen
CDP Cities 2011: Global
Report on C40 Cities
70

leefbare steden
Nieuwe jobs in cleantech
en andere sectoren
en vermeden kosten
71

Cleantech levert (lokale) jobs op…
McKinsey, 2012
72

Cleantech wordt steeds goedkoper
73
Emissions Gap
Report, 2019
(UNEP)

leefbare steden
en andere sectoren
Veerkracht en sociale
cohesie
Verminderde materialen-
en energie-afhankelijkheid
en vermeden kosten
74

Veerkrachtige, circulaire en
klimaatvriendelijke lokale economieën
www.gussingren
ewable.com
“money stays in
the region and
the air [stays]
clean”
75

leefbare steden
en andere sectoren
Veerkracht en sociale
cohesie
Verminderde materialen-
en energie-afhankelijkheid
en vermeden kosten
76

Tot slot
Over hoop
77

Jones-KULeuven
78
09/09/2019
Stockholm,
8 February 201925 January 2019, WEF, Davos

(Actieve) Hoop is een werkword…
80
“Ben ik bang of ben ik hoopvol? Ja ik ben bang, en ja ik ben
hoopvol. En dat is goed. Dat geeft me de kracht om actief aan de
slag te gaan. En ik ben niet alleen. Ik ben met miljoenen mensen.
Ik ga dus voor mijn pixels in de foto. Ik ga actief hopen. Daarom
ben ik hier. Met jullie. 1 + 1 is zoveel meer dan 2. Bedankt om
mee actief te hopen. Het doet deugd om met zoveel te zijn. Dat
geeft me hoop!!”
(Marian Jones (12 jaar), Kids for Climate
Speech, Theater Aan Zee, Oostende (4-8-2019)

Contact: Peter Tom Jones (KU
Leuven) - peter.jones@kuleuven.be
[Book: P.T. Jones & V. De Meyere,
Terra Reversa, De Transitie naar
rechtvaardige duurzaamheid,
EPO, 2016.]
Dank voor de aandacht
81

20200217 lezing jones_welkom in het antropoceen_knooppunt_kortrijk

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