Tira Foran presented to the 11th International Society for Industrial Ecology (ISIE) Conference: 'Industrial Ecology in the Asia-Pacific Century: Interdisciplinary science for building sustainable industrial systems and human settlements'.

1. Exploring energy futures for remote Australian
communities
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Tira Foran (on behalf of David Fleming, Bruno Spandonide, Rachel Williams, Digby Race)
ISIE Meeting
18 November 2014

2. Oil & gas resources
significant
offshore NG
geothermal
solar
| Tira Foran2 |

3. | Tira Foran3 |
Remote Australia & energy infrastructure

4. | Tira Foran4 |
A young
population
green >= 25% under age 15

5. • Unemployment rate
2011 census
• Dark brown >= 7%
| Tira Foran5 |
Lower
economic participation

6. | Tira Foran6 |
Indigenous housing
high rate of community owned
high rate of “overcrowding”
Region % overcrowded Number of households
Alice Springs 16% 237
Apatula 50% 646
Sydney-Wollongong 10% 7315
Australia 12% 24668
Source: Biddle 2012 based on 2011 census

7. | Tira Foran7 |
“Local innovation”

8. Method
| Exploring energy futures – May 20148 |

9. Key research question
| Tira Foran9 |
If the future is uncertain, a strong economy, progressive social
attitudes, and policy support for energy-related innovations
cannot be guaranteed. In your region, what particular policies
and innovations should be promoted as no-regrets strategies,
regardless of what the future holds? What policies and
innovative practices may create new synergies or desired
development dynamics?

10. | Tira Foran10 |
Common
Understandings
(waste, luxury,
need)
Practical
knowledge (how
to get things
done)
Materials &
infrastructure
Types of innovation
Market-based (profit /
firms)
Grassroots (meeting a
social need / diverse
actors)
Social practices
(challenging targets
of innovation)

11. | Tira Foran11 |
“Earthship” as example of grassroots innovation

12. Regime of provisioning
| Tira Foran12 |
Social rules,
values, belief
systems
Planning & regulation
Energy, transport
& water, housing
E Citizen influence
constrained by political
opportunities,
enabled by social movements
Livelihoods &
Lifestyles
Power stations
Homes, vehicles
Innovation always takes place within a particular
regime
C Consumer
influence
D Developer
influence

13. | Tira Foran13 |

14. Scenario framework: housing & grassroots
innovation in Alice Springs
| Tira Foran14 |

15. Application of method
| Exploring energy futures – May 201415 |

16. | Tira Foran16 |

17. | Tira Foran17 |

18. | Tira Foran18 |

19. | Tira Foran19 |

20. | Tira Foran20 |

21. | Tira Foran21 |

22. | Tira Foran22 |

23. Scenario framework: housing & grassroots
innovation in Alice Springs
| Tira Foran23 |

24. Key outcomes
Diversity
“No regrets” innovative practices
Institutional flexibility
| Exploring energy futures – May 201424 |

25. Annual heating & cooling requirement

26. Examples of “No regrets” innovative practices (^)
Type of practice Housing Transport
Institutional
innovation
^Culturally appropriate models of
innovation (e.g. CLC approach to youth
housing)
Bushlight solar and hybrid power
systems with management control
features
CoolMob (an influential social network
around sustainable liveability, based in
Alice Springs)
^Multi-user vehicle fleet
systems
^Centre Bush Bus: network
and operational model
Changing dates of
administrative year in NT
Grassroots
innovation
^Self build, community specified
Aboriginal housing
^Recognizing and allowing grassroots
sustainability innovations to persist
Maintenance and recycling
system for vehicle parts
| Exploring energy futures – May 201426 |

27. Summary & Conclusions
• Multi-stakeholder discussion of energy practices and socio-
technical regimes
• Participants appeared to value opportunity for multi-dimensional discussion
of housing- and transport-related energy futures
• We are in process of finalizing governance recommendations
• E.g. (1) “State and territory governments should invest in a . . . review of
building- and transport-related energy performance standards, including
minimum performance standards”
• (3) Research providers should invest in compilation and assessment of
innovative efforts by local networks to meet housing and transport energy-
related challenges
| Tira Foran27 |

28. CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social
Systems Institutions and
Governance Research Group
Dr Tira Foran
Social Scientist
t +61 2 6246 4308
e tira.foran@csiro.au
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Thank you

29. 29 | | Tira Foran

30. Image credits
Alice Solar Cities Program
Bushlight
Community artists at the Warakurna
Artists Art Centre: Tim Acker
Earthships New Mexico: Martin Bond
Earthships, miscellaneous: Google
NT Arts Infrastructure Projects
(ANKAAA/Art Centres/ABA)Munupi
Arts visit (August 2009)
Sitting in the shade: ABC.net.au
Zero Carbon Australia
ALEC & CoolMob
Scenario development process
http://scenarios2strategy.com/assets/
process.gif

31. Annual heating & cooling requirement

32. | Tira Foran32 |
MMA & Strategis
(2009) Scenario
framework
Trends &
Uncertainties
Scenario 1
(Fast rate
of change)
Scenario 2
(An uncertain
world)
Scenario 3
(A
decentralized
world)
Scenario 4
(Oil shock &
adaptation)
Scenario 5
(Slow rate of
change)
Common trends Above average temperatures, more frequent, prolonged droughts
Renewable Energy Targets for electricity sector
(1) Economic
growth
High High Medium Low Low (mixed)
(2) Population
growth
High High Medium Medium Low
(3) Global carbon
policy
Strong
(≤450
ppm)
Weak
(≤550 ppm)
Strong (≤500
ppm)
Moderate (≤500
ppm)
Weak (≤550
ppm)
(4) Centralized
supply-side response
Strong Strong Weak Moderate
(renewable)
Moderate
(5) Decentralized
supply-side
response,
Demand-side
response
Strong Weak Strong Weak Weak
User attitudes Pro-
gressive
Consumerist
Conservative
Very
progressive
Progressive Conservative

33. | Tira Foran33 |

34. Project design
| Tira Foran35 |