The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions

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Presentation at NRF Nexus 2023 July 11, 2023 #nrfnexus Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg Chief Commerce Strategy Officer Publicis Groupe

Retail

2022 Retail
$7.1T
+8.2% v 2021
+31% v 2019

Core Retail Growth YoY
(ex Auto & Gas)
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Adv Monthly, NAISC 44000
Up 6.9% in 2022
Up 14.4% in 2021
Average growth 4.1%

2022
vs 2019
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail
Indicator Branch, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj.

$1T
+5.1% v 2021
+37% v 2019
2023 Retail Jan-May
$2.3T
+2.2% v 2022
+35% v 2019

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$650,000
$550,000
$450,000
$350,000
$
Millons
2019
2020
2021
2022
Monthly Retail Sales
2023

Quarterly Retail Growth
SOURCE: Company Filings, US Dept of Commerce

US Retail Sales
Adjusted for inflation
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publicis Analysis
YTD Up 2.2% (-2.9% adjusted) YoY
Up 35% (13.7% adjusted) Yo4Y

Grocery – 2022
$961B
+8.1% v 2021
+24.2% v 2019
14% of Retail

2023 Grocery Jan - May
$383B
+4.4% v 2022
+27.6% v 2019
14% of Retail

Restaurant vs Grocery
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Adv Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj. Cat 445 vs. 772

Restaurants Back to Normal
SOURCE: OpenTable. 7-day average, same weekday via The New Consumer
OpenTable seated diners change vs. 2019 ‘normal’

US Grocery Sales
Adjusted for inflation
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publicis Analysis
YTD Up 4.4% (-3.6% adjusted) YoY
Up 27.6% (3.0% adjusted) Yo4Y

E-Commerce 2022
$1T
14.6% of US Retail
+8% v 2021
+27% v 2020
+81% v 2019

2023 Non-Store Sales Jan-April
$539B
+7.4% v 2022
+88% v 2019
18% of Retail

E-Commerce vs Retail YoY Growth
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541 v 44000

E-Commerce Share of Retail
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541 v 44000

E-Commerce Revenue
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541

Digitally Influenced Sales
Source: Forrester 2022 Digital-Influenced Retail Sales Forecast, US
51%
61%
70%
offline
Digitally
Influenced
offline
online
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
Digitally
Influenced
Sales
49% 39% 30%
36% 38% 40%
15%
23%
30%

Walmart Earnings Calls
4,000 Stores 50M Stores

Grocery E-Commerce 2022
$96.8B
10% of Grocery

Grocery E-Commerce Jan-May
$40B
-2.68% vs 2022

Digital Grocery was primed for disruption
Retail Ecommerce Sales Share by Product Category
US 2020 (% of total retail sales)
Books, music & video
Computer & consumer electronics
Toys & hobbies
Apparel & accessories
Office equipment & supplies
Furniture & home furnishings
Other
Auto & parts
Food & Beverage
0% 20% 40% 60%

Source: Company Filings, Factset, Stratably
Kroger– Digital Penetration

Over 60% of sales come from e-commerce:
Panera CEO on growth of digital sales
Panera CEO Niren Chaudhary

SHEIN’s LATR Engine
The Large-scale, Automated
Test and Reorder system can
be applied far beyond fashion-
driven commerce into almost
any demand-driven industry.
Source: https://pgillich.medium.com/sheins-latr-is-the-new-tps-lean-kanban-2d3295700860

US Monthly Unique Visitors
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
0
200
100
80
60
40
20
240
220
180
160
140
120
Millions
Shein
Temu
Walmart
Amazon
Target
SOURCE: Comscore Media-Metrics

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The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions

1. State of Commerce July 2023

2. Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg Chief Commerce Strategy Officer, Publicis Groupe @retailgeek Jasonandscot.com Scot Wingo CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor @scotwingo

3. 2022 Retail $7.1T +8.2% v 2021 +31% v 2019

4. Core Retail Growth YoY (ex Auto & Gas) SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Adv Monthly, NAISC 44000 Up 6.9% in 2022 Up 14.4% in 2021 Average growth 4.1%

5. 2022 vs 2019 SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj.

6. $1T +5.1% v 2021 +37% v 2019 2023 Retail Jan-May $2.3T +2.2% v 2022 +35% v 2019

7. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $650,000 $550,000 $450,000 $350,000 $ Millons 2019 2020 2021 2022 Monthly Retail Sales 2023

8. Quarterly Retail Growth SOURCE: Company Filings, US Dept of Commerce

9. Inflation (May 2023) 4.0% 2.3% Dec 2019

10. US Retail Sales Adjusted for inflation SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publicis Analysis YTD Up 2.2% (-2.9% adjusted) YoY Up 35% (13.7% adjusted) Yo4Y

11. Grocery – 2022 $961B +8.1% v 2021 +24.2% v 2019 14% of Retail

12. 2023 Grocery Jan - May $383B +4.4% v 2022 +27.6% v 2019 14% of Retail

13. Restaurant vs Grocery SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Adv Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj. Cat 445 vs. 772

14. Restaurants Back to Normal SOURCE: OpenTable. 7-day average, same weekday via The New Consumer OpenTable seated diners change vs. 2019 ‘normal’

15. US Grocery Sales Adjusted for inflation SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publicis Analysis YTD Up 4.4% (-3.6% adjusted) YoY Up 27.6% (3.0% adjusted) Yo4Y

16. E-Commerce 2022 $1T 14.6% of US Retail +8% v 2021 +27% v 2020 +81% v 2019

17. 2023 Non-Store Sales Jan-April $539B +7.4% v 2022 +88% v 2019 18% of Retail

18. E-Commerce vs Retail YoY Growth SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541 v 44000

19. E-Commerce vs Retail YoY Growth SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541 v 44000

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23. E-Commerce Share of Retail SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541 v 44000

24. E-Commerce Revenue SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch, Monthly, Seasonally Adj. Cat 4541

25. Digitally Influenced Sales Source: Forrester 2022 Digital-Influenced Retail Sales Forecast, US 51% 61% 70% offline Digitally Influenced offline online Yesterday Today Tomorrow Digitally Influenced Sales 49% 39% 30% 36% 38% 40% 15% 23% 30%

26. Walmart Earnings Calls 4,000 Stores 50M Stores

27. Grocery E-Commerce 2022 $96.8B 10% of Grocery

28. Grocery E-Commerce Jan-May $40B -2.68% vs 2022

29. Digital Grocery was primed for disruption Retail Ecommerce Sales Share by Product Category US 2020 (% of total retail sales) Books, music & video Computer & consumer electronics Toys & hobbies Apparel & accessories Office equipment & supplies Furniture & home furnishings Other Auto & parts Food & Beverage 0% 20% 40% 60%

30. Source: Company Filings, Factset, Stratably Kroger– Digital Penetration

31. Over 60% of sales come from e-commerce: Panera CEO on growth of digital sales Panera CEO Niren Chaudhary

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43. Made in China

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47. SHEIN’s LATR Engine The Large-scale, Automated Test and Reorder system can be applied far beyond fashion- driven commerce into almost any demand-driven industry. Source: https://pgillich.medium.com/sheins-latr-is-the-new-tps-lean-kanban-2d3295700860

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51. US Monthly Unique Visitors Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 0 200 100 80 60 40 20 240 220 180 160 140 120 Millions Shein Temu Walmart Amazon Target SOURCE: Comscore Media-Metrics

52. Happy Commercing!

The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions

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