IRA KALISH
Chief Global Economist
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.
A look ahead to 2023:
Impasse or
opportunity for a new
path

Economic outlook
Dr. Ira Kalish
Chief Global Economist

3
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Inflation: fueled by pandemic, war, and lockdowns

4
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Shift in composition of demand in OECD economies
Dashed line is pre-pandemic trend

5
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Supply chains disrupted, contributed to inflation, begin to improve
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

6
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Energy crisis boosted inflation, reduced growth

7
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
OECD labor markets tight, but real wages decline
Vacancy Rate

8
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Monetary policy response

9
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
US recession risk
On the one hand On the other hand
• Fed tightening roils markets,
suppresses housing activity,
threatens business investment
• Fiscal contraction
• Declining real incomes
• European recession and
Chinese slowdown
• Strong job market
• Consumer spending stable as
consumers dip into savings
• Consumer and business balance
sheets strong
• Commodity prices declining
• Supply chains improving

10
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Europe
• Russia attempts to undermine
European unity and resolve, cuts off
some gas
• Europe cuts gas consumption, seeks
alternative sources
• Gas crisis exacerbates inflation,
reduces real incomes
• Governments offer subsidies to
consumers
• ECB tightens monetary policy to fight
inflation
Russian Pipeline Gas Supplied to EU

11
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
China China GDP Growth Qtr to Qtr
• Covid restrictions eased, but this comes
with short-term costs.
• China’s economy already slowing due to
problems in residential property market.
• Government policy on state versus private
sector could inhibit growth
• China faces headwinds from weak global
economy, trade disputes, supply chain
disruption.

12
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Future of globalization
• Globalization was based on predictions
of supply and demand.
• Disruptions have damaged the ability to
manage global supply chains.
• Global companies will:
• Reduce exposure to China
• Diversify supply chains to boost
resilience.
• Governments intervene to weaken
dependency on China
Trade as a share of GDP

13
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Climate change
• High temperatures this summer
led to low water levels, affecting
hydroelectric generation, nuclear
power, food production, industrial
production, and inland
transportation.
• Global food prices have reverted
from the war-related highs, but
climate change will likely be
disruptive going forward.

14
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Top 10 Retailers
Walmart continues to dominate the top 10 retailers list, followed by Amazon and Costco, who rounded off the top three rankings;
there were no new retailers in the list this year, with majority of them retaining their positions from last year.
Country of origin
FY2021 Retail revenue
(US$ billions)
Top 250 rank
WALMART INC.
AMAZON.COM, INC.
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION
SCHWARZ GROUP
THE HOME DEPOT, INC.
THE KROGER CO.
JD.COM
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC.
ALDI EINKAUF GMBH & CO. OHG AND ALDI
INTERNATIONAL SERVICES GMBH & CO. OHG
TARGET CORPORATION
US
US
US
Germany
US
US
China
US
Germany
US
$572.7
$239.1
$195.9
$153.7
$151.1
$136.9
$126.3
$122.0
$120.9 e
$104.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
• The top 10 retailers did not see any new entrants in
FY2021, and seven of the retailers retained their position
from last year.
• JD.com was the biggest gainer among the top 10,
advancing two positions since last year to rank to the
seventh position. It also recorded the highest retail
revenue growth year-on-year, as well as was the fastest
growing retailers over a period of five years among the
Top 10 in FY2021.
• The top 10 rankings continued to be distributed among
US and Germany-based retailers, with the exception of
JD.com, who is a China-based retailer.
• US-based retailer Walgreens Boots Alliance and German-
retailer Aldi both fell by one position each among the
rankings, partially offset by JD.com’s double-digit retail
revenue growth rate.
Key highlights
+2
-1
-1
Change in rank
e: estimate

15
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Geographic breakdown
North America continued to represent the largest share of the Top 250 retail revenue compared to other regions, with US
comprising 45.7% of the Top 250 retail revenue share. Europe formed the second largest share, followed by Asia Pacific.
Percentage share of Top 250 retail revenue by region and by top countries. 100% of each company’s sales is accounted for within the region that the company is headquartered in.
US
45.7%
Germany
10.1%
UK
5.6%
France
6.1%
Other Europe
11.6%
China/HK
5.3%
Japan
5.9%
Other Asia Pacific
4.6%
North America
47.9%
Europe
33.2%
Asia Pacific
15.7%
Latin America
1.8%
Africa/Middle
east
1.3%

16
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Product sector breakdown
The FMCG sector continues to be the largest product sector among the Top 250 retailers both in terms of retail revenue share and
number of companies among the Top 250 rankings.
The diversified sector had the second highest year-on-year
growth rate among the Top 250 retailers at 15.6% and
represented 5.4% of the Top 250 share of retail revenue.
Key highlights
Diversified
Apparel and
accessories
Hardlines and
leisure goods
Fast-moving
consumer
goods (FMCG)
Percentage
share of Top
250 revenue
Number of
companies
5.4% 19
9.3% 38
21.4% 57
63.8% 136
Apparel and accessories had the highest year-on-year retail
revenue growth between FY2020 and FY2021 at 31.3%
growth rate.
Hardlines and leisure goods represented the second largest
share of the Top 250 retail revenue figure at 21.4% and had 57
companies among the Top 250.
Fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) continued to represent the
largest share of the Top 250 retail revenue, comprising of 63.8% of
retail revenue among the Top 250. The sector also had the largest
number of companies among the Top 250 at 136 companies.

This presentation contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other
professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect
your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor.
Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation.
Copyright © 2023 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte Tax LLP, a subsidiary of Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of our legal structure.
Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.