Poster for Society of American Foresters 2015 National Convention Authors: Maria Janowiak, Leslie Brandt, Chris Swanston, Patricia Butler, Stephen Handler, Danielle Shannon, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Abstract: There is a growing interest among forest managers for integrating information about anticipated climate impacts and risks into management planning and activities. Vulnerability assessments can serve a critical role in this integration by providing credible, high-quality information at the scales most relevant to management. Most importantly, vulnerability assessments can increase the availability and use of complex scientific information by synthesizing key impacts and their implications in a manner that is more accessible to natural resource professionals than the existing scientific literature. We developed a process for creating climate change vulnerability assessments at the ecoregion level in order to inform management planning and actions. At the core of this process were “expert panels” of research scientists and forest practitioners that worked together to consider wide-ranging information from the scientific literature and the results of multiple forest impact models, as well as their personal experience and expertise on local ecosystems. This process has so far been applied to five assessment areas in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, covering more than 135 million acres, and is continuing to be applied across an even greater area. Most importantly, these assessments fulfill a critical need among managers wanting to consider the effects of climate change on the forests that they manage. www.forestadaptation.org

1. • Adaptive capacity is the ability (or lack thereof) of a species
or ecosystem to accommodate or cope with potential
climate change impacts with minimal disruption
Assess factors that enhance adaptive
capacity4
TRANSLATING BROAD CLIMATE CHANGE
INFORMATION TO MEANINGFUL SCALES
Maria Janowiak1, Leslie Brandt1, Chris Swanston1, Patricia Butler2, Stephen Handler1, Danielle Shannon2
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science 1USDA Forest Service, 2Michigan Technological University
We have developed a 7-step approach that was applied to each assessment
area. Panels of experts in climate change impacts on forests, forest ecology,
and management were assembled for a two-day workshop in each region.
This process was completed for each ecosystem or forest type in each region.
NIACS is a multi-institutional
organization led by the
USDA Forest Service.
Northern Forests
Climate Hub
NIACS coordinates the USDA Northern Forests
Climate Hub. The Climate Change Response
Framework is a core forest adaptation
component of both the Midwest and
Northeast Regional Climate Hubs.
Climate Change Response Framework
The Framework is a collaborative, cross-boundary approach among
scientists, managers, and landowners to incorporate climate change
considerations into natural resource management
The Framework has 4 components:
Partnerships
Vulnerability
Assessment
Forest
Adaptation
Resources
Demonstration
Projects
Work with scientists and land managers
at federal, state, university, conservation,
and private organizations
Understand how climate change
may affect forests at an ecoregional scale
Incorporate information
into decision-making and on-the
ground projects
Identify strategies, approaches, and
tactics to adapt to climate change
• Drivers contribute to the
presence of that community
on the landscape
• Stressors are major physical,
biological, or anthropogenic
factors that may reduce the
long-term viability or
productivity of a community
• Dominant species are the most
common canopy species
Identify current drivers, stressors, and
dominant species1
• Impacts are the direct and indirect consequences (either positive
or negative) of climate change on systems
Assess potential climate change impacts on
drivers, stressors, and dominant species2
• Interactions are the direct or indirect effects (either positive or
negative) of one potential impact on another
Describe potential interactions among impacts3
• Uncertainty of each
vulnerability determination is
evaluated by evidence and
agreement
• Evidence is defined as
observational, modeled, or
theoretical information that
contribute to a vulnerability
determination
• Evidence is considered robust
when multiple observations or
models are available as well as
established theoretical
understanding to support a
vulnerability determination
• Panelists evaluate agreement
based on whether theories,
observations, and models tend
to suggest similar outcomes
Determine uncertainty6
• Panelists indicate their
individual determinations on a
2-dimensional space
• Individual ratings are discussed
among the group, and the
group reaches a determination
of vulnerability by consensus
• The group vulnerability
determination is placed into
one of five categories:
Low, Low-Moderate, Moderate,
Moderate-High, and High
• The group uncertainty
determination is made in a
similar fashion, with ratings for
both evidence and agreement
falling into one of five
categories
7
Group vulnerability determination example
Group uncertainty determination example
Example vulnerability and uncertainty determination
for community types in the Central Hardwoods region.
Determine vulnerability and uncertainty as a group
Find assessments and
more information at Forestadaptation.org
Assessment Areas
Vulnerability assessments are a key component of the Framework,
synthesizing information on climate change to inform future forest
management decisions. To date, 5 assessments have been published by
the US Forest Service as General Technical Reports, covering more than
135 million acres.
Central
Hardwoods
Northwoods
Central
Appalachians
New
England
Assessment
underway!
Mid-Atlantic
Assessment
underway!
Urban:
Chicago
Wilderness
Assessment in
publication
Abstract
Vulnerability assessments synthesize climate change impacts and
implications to help inform future management decisions. We
developed a vulnerability assessment process at the ecoregion
level. These assessments fulfill a critical need among managers
wanting to consider the effects of climate change on the forests that
they manage.
• Vulnerability is the degree to
which a system is susceptible to
and unable to cope with
adverse effects of climate
change
• We consider a forest system to
be vulnerable if it is susceptible
to a reduction in health and
productivity or a change in
species composition that would
alter its fundamental identity
• Vulnerability is determined
based upon the balance of the
potential impacts and adaptive
capacity.
Determine vulnerability5
Community Type
Potential
Impacts
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability Confidence
Barrens Moderate High Low
Medium-high agreement;
Medium evidence
Closed Woodland Positive High Low
Medium agreement;
Limted evidence
Open Woodland Positive High Low
Medium agreement:
Medium to Limited
evidence
Dry-Mesic Upland
Forest
Moderate High Low-Moderate
Medium to high
agreement; Medium
evidence
Flatwoods
Slightly
Positive
Moderate Low-Moderate
Medium agreement.;
Limited to medium
evidence
Glade
Slightly
Positive
Moderate Low-Moderate
Medium to high
agreement; Medium
evidence
Mesic Bottomland
Forest
Moderate Moderate Moderate
Medium agreement;
Medium to limited
evidence
Wet Bottomland
Forest
Slightly
Negative
Moderate Moderate- High
Medium agreement;
medium to limited
evidence
Mesic Upland Forest Negative Low High
Medium-high agreement;
medium evidence
Collaboration Color Key
Determined by each panelist based on information
compiled in steps 1-4
Collaborative effort to evaluate results of downscaled climate
projections, habitat suitability models, landscape process
models, and panelists’ expertise
Determined by the group consensus
Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach