This document discusses adaptation strategies for fisheries management in northeastern Minnesota in response to climate change impacts. It finds that winter is warming faster than summer in the region. Key data gaps are identified around temperature and dissolved oxygen profiles of trout lakes, fish barrier inventories, angling data, and long-term stream monitoring. Strategies developed include emphasizing sustainable forest management, natural channel design for restoration, riparian protection, invasive species monitoring, partnership development, and strategic fish barrier removal. Continuous monitoring is needed to detect changes in stream populations over time to inform adaptive management.

1. Adaptation Strategies For Fisheries Management In
a Northeastern Minnesota Forest
Dean Paron
Area Fisheries Supervisor
MN Department of Natural Resources
Finland Fisheries Area

2. MN DNR Finland Fisheries Area
• 561 lakes
– 26 stream trout lakes
– 3 Lake Trout lakes
– Walleye, Northern Pike, Perch,
and some Smallmouth Bass
• 2,178 miles of rivers and
streams
– 1,912 miles of trout streams
(551 trout streams)
• About 160,000 acres of
the BWCAW
Finland Area

3. MN DNR Finland Fisheries Area
• 1,830 square miles
(over 1.1 million
acres)
• Southern edge of
boreal forest
• 77% publicly owned
(mostly forested)
– 51% USFS
– 14% State of MN
– 11% County
– ~1% Nature Conservancy

5. In winter of 2012/13 a Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment on fisheries was
performed in the Finland area.
General agreement on global patterns Disagreement on local patterns and trends
Global climate change ≠ regional or local

6. Minnesota State Climatology
Office to the Rescue
Information provided by Dr. Kenneth A Blumenfeld

8. In Northeast MN Winter is warming 10x
faster than summer
Season
Temperature
Metric
Avg. change
per decade
since 1895
Avg. change
per decade
since 1970
Winter
(Dec -
Feb)
Seasonal Avg. + 0.36°F + 1.00°F
Summer
(Jun -
Aug)
Seasonal Avg. + 0.14°F + 0.10°F

9. Length and Magnitude of 10 F Temperature
Season in NE MN (Duluth)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
DailyAverageTDegreesBelow10F
1956-1975

10. Length and Magnitude of 10 F
Temperature Season in NE MN (Duluth)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
DailyAverageTDegreesBelow10F
1956-1975
1976-1995

11. Length and Magnitude of 10 F
Temperature Season in NE MN (Duluth)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
DailyAverageTDegreesBelow10F
1956-1975
1976-1995
1996-2015

12. In NE MN the number and magnitude of
heavy and extreme rainfall events
increasing
• Increases in the frequency of 1, 2, and 3-
inch rainfalls recorded annually

13. Extreme rainfall: “Mega” rain events (6” + over
1000 sq mi) are increasing (7 out of 10 highest in last
15 years)

16. Average change in annual
precipitation (per decade)
1895-2015 1970-2015

17. A “hydrothermal deficit” and stress noted in
northeast MN forests.
Clark, James S., et al. "The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States." Global change biology (2016).

18. Confidence Hazard Expectations beyond 2025
Highest
Extreme cold Continued rapid decline
Extreme rainfall Unprecedented events
expected
High Heat waves Increases in severity, coverage,
and duration expected
Moderately
High
Drought Increases in severity, coverage,
and duration possible
Moderately
Low
Heavy snowfall Large events less frequent as
winter warms
Moderately
Low
Severe
thunderstorms &
tornadoes
More “super events” possible,
even if frequency decreases
Confidence that climate change will impact common
Minnesota weather/climate hazards beyond 2025

19. Based on our assessment we
determined that we needed to develop
an area action plan for trout.

20. WHY THE INITIAL FOCUS
ON TROUT?
• High Sensitivity/Low Adaptive
Capacity
• Coldwater Trout Streams and Lakes
highly influenced by Climate in NE
• Modeled Projections

21. • Scenario planning was used to consider
plausible futures and identify resilient and
strategic decisions.
• Identified Several Critical Data Gaps
– Temperature/D.O. profiles for trout lakes
– Connectivity data (Fish barriers, Culvert
inventory)
– Creel surveys (Angling information)
– Long term continuous stream data
(Geomorphology, Biology, Water Quality, Hydrology)

22. Why is it important?

23. Spring

24. Summer

25. Late summer

26. Extreme summer

27. Extreme summer

28. Fall

29. In Finland the duration and extent of summer stratification
was unknown on most trout lakes
2013 Area began studying oxythermal habitat on trout lakes
http://waterontheweb.org/under/instrumentation/russ.html

30. Stream Trout Lakes
Two Harbors
Beaver Bay
Silver Bay
Finland
Isabella
Hwy 61
Hwy 1
Lake Trout Lakes

31. Creating a
temperature chain
Temp logger
chain with HOBO
Water Temp Pro
loggers
Below-
surface buoy
(placed ~3’
below
surface)
Cement
blocks
Close-up view of HOBO Water
Temp Pro loggers

32. Logger Placement – Stratified Lake
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Temp profile
Logger placement
Interpolated profile
0 10 20 30
10 Loggers 5 Loggers 3 Loggers
Temperature (°C)
Depth(m)

33. The type of interpolated data that can be
generated from temp chains/weekly profile data

34. The type of interpolated data that can be
generated from weekly DO profile data

35. Summer squeeze
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
06/01 06/21 07/11 07/31 08/20 09/09 09/29 10/19
Depth(m)
Date
Temp. @ 20˚ C
DO @ 4mg/l
68 F

36. 3-D mapping of Temperature / Dissolved oxygen
(Oxythermal habitat)

37. In 2015 Lake County SWCD along with other partner (DNR,
USFS, Lake County DOT) began a complete inventory on all
culverts within Lake County to assess for fish passage
Data Gap – Culvert Inventory

38. Data Gap – Creel information on trout lakes

39. • Fishing pressure and angler satisfaction
unknown
– Limitations of traditional creel, $$$
– Evaluation of trout management limited to
lake surveys
– Are angler use and satisfaction goals being
met? Is angler use changing with Climate
Change?
• Initial Success monitoring angling
activity using trail cameras
Data Gap – Creel information on trout lakes

40. Camera Deployment
Time lapse
• Identify line-of-sight
• Installed with panning mounts
• Hourly instantaneous counts
during daylight
Access Trail
• Inconspicuous, but clear view
• perpendicular to trail
• FAP trigger speed
• Daylight motion detection only

41. Image Analysis: Access Trail Cameras

42. Self-survey kiosks

43. Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data
Concerns that would not be able to understand changes within landscape.
Previously, stream surveys were set on 3, 5, and 10 year cycles.

44. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Adults/mi
Year
Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data
Concerns that would not be able to understand changes within landscape.
Previously, stream surveys were set on 3, 5, and 10 year cycles.

45. Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data
Ten Streams Chosen for Continuous Monitoring Program
3 streams that modeled predictions have indicated to be
highly resilient to climate change
3 streams that modeled predictions have indicated to
highly susceptible to climate change
4 streams that have already been sampled yearly since
2008

46. Continuous Sampling Data will
include:
• Hydrology
• Geomorphology/Fish Habitat
• Water Quality
• Biota
Fish community
Invertebrates
Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data

47. Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data
Temperature

48. November 12, 2014
MN DNR Operational Order 131
– It established broad requirements for staff
to consider climate change in agency
planning, operations, communications
and training.

52. Finland Area Specific Adaptive
Management Strategies
1. Emphasis on Sustainable Management of Forested
Watersheds
2. Natural Channel Design for restoration projects
(allow for river to adjust to changing climate)
3. Strategic Emphasis on Riparian Protection
(temperature and overall water quality)
4. Increased monitoring for invasive species
5. Developing partnerships (USFS, Trout Unlimited,
etc) and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes
6. Strategic removal of fish barriers

53. Verry, E. S. (2000). Society of American Foresters. In Society of American Foresters (Ed.), LAND FRAGMENTATION AND
IMPACTS TO STREAMS AND FISH IN THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST (pp. 16–20). Washington, DC: SAF Publ 01-
02
Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management of Forested Watershed

54. Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management of Forested Watershed

55. • “Using LIDAR to Assess the Effects of Open Lands and Young Forest on
in-channel stream erosion for North Shore Tributaries”
Tom Hollenhorst MED-EPA
John Jereczek MN DNR
Use of Lidar in Forest Assessment
DNR-Fisheries Staff
Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management Forested Watershed

57. LiDAR Watershed
Open Landscape
Analysis
 Facilitates condition
Assessment at any point
Along watershed
 Allows for improved analysis
Of DNR land contribution
to watershed condition
 Helps ID stands for
potential watershed condition
influenced coordination
Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management of Forested Watershed

60. Restore river processes which allows for
change in conditions
Adaptation Strategy 2: Use of Natural Channel Design in Restoration

61. Photo by Brandon Spaugh, North State Environmental
Adaptation Strategy 2: Use of Natural Channel Design in Restoration
Restoring connectivity to flood plain is critical

62. Photo by Brandon Spaugh, North State Environmental
Adaptation Strategy 2: Use of Natural Channel Design in Restoration

63. Restoration Site
One Mile
Downstream

64. -strategic purchases of easements
• 8,684 total acres of
fisheries lands
• 8,398 acres of Aquatic
Management Areas
(fee title owned)
• 286 acres (16 linear
miles of stream) of
conservation
easements
Adaptive Strategy 3. Emphasize riparian protection

65. Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species

66. Incorporated long term and strategic monitoring for
spiny water fleas and zebra mussels
Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species

67. Change in Thermal guilds
Guild Lower good
growth
Upper good
growth
Upper
lethal
Optimum
Coldwater 9 (48°F)
(6-12)
19(66°F)
(16-21)
23 (73°F)
(22-27)
15(59°F)
(12-19)
Coolwater 16(61°F)
(13-18)
28(82°F)
(28-29)
30(86°F)
(28-32)
25(77°F)
(24-26)
Warmwater 20(68°F)
(18-23)
32 (90°F)
(31-35)
35(95°F)
(32-36)
29(84°F)
(27-32)
Stefan et al. 2001 TAFS 130:459-477
Temperature °C (°F)
Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species

68. Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species
Largemouth Bass Concerns
• How will increasing/expanding largemouth bass
populations affect walleye?
• Can we predict which lakes are most likely to
have increasing/expanding largemouth bass
populations?

69. Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species
Largemouth Bass within state expansion

70. Adaptive Strategy 3. Increased monitoring for invasive species
Largemouth Bass Range Expansion
in Arrowhead Lakes
• Fisheries Research Study (MN
DNR)
– Bethany Bethke
– 2015-2017
• How do bass populations affect
walleye?
• Can lakes likely to have bass in
near future be predicted based on
changes in:
– Temperature?
– Vegetation?
• 9 Study Lakes
– 3 without bass
– 3 with recently detected largemouth
bass
– 3 with historical largemouth bass
Study Lake Centers.csv Events
<all other values>
Population Type
None
Recent
Historical

71. Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species
Growing degree day evidence
• Graph at left shows:
– Modeled cumulative growing degree
days for each lake from 1980 to 2016
– Red dashed line is threshold for
largemouth bass success
• Hansen et al. In Press. Global
Change Biology
– Dark/light blue lines are lakes
without bass
• One lake (Wilson) was not included
in modeled data
– Graph shows lakes currently without
bass are experiencing >2,200
growing degree days more frequently
• Have potential to support largemouth
bass in the future
• Highlights importance of
understanding interactions between
species

72. Lake Superior Coldwater
Coalition
• TU, Northshore Steelheaders, Lake Superior Steelhead
Association, Izaak Walton League, Cook, Lake, and St.
Louis County, DNR, Arrowhead Flyfishers, USFS
• Mission statement of the Lake Superior Coldwater
Coalition is: Maintain, protect, and restore healthy
cold water ecosystems with relatively stable flows and
a diversity of habitat for fish and wildlife to enhance
our quality of life.
• Coldwater Coalition is in a prioritization process, plan
on arriving with a list of top 20 watersheds in the Lake
Superior Basin
Adaptation Strategy 5: Developing partnerships and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes

73. Partnered with Trout Unlimited to
Reclaim the most resilient Trout Lakes
Adaptation Strategy 5: Developing partnerships and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes

74. Other
Watershed
Efforts:
Coordination
WRAPS
MN Water
Quality
Framework
Adaptation Strategy 5: Developing partnerships and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes

75. Adaptive Strategy 6: Strategic removal of fish barriers
Sawmill Creek Designated Brook Trout Stream
Before After
Use of geomorphic processes for sizing culverts

76. Windy Creek
Adaptive Strategy 6: Strategic removal of fish barriers

77. Questions?

78. Long Term continuous data will allow us to do a prospective power
analysis – Determine number of years to monitor to detect a
difference from background variability
Figure 6. Number of years needed to detect various changes
(as percent change) in abundance (#/mi) of adult (age 1+)
brown trout in selected SE MN streams for a two-sample
t-test design given an alpha=0.05 and a Beta=0.10
(i.e., a 90% chance of detecting a true difference
between population means).
No. of Years (Post-2006) Needed to Sample
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
DetectablePercentChangefromInitialMeanAbundance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
South Branch Whitewater River
Gribben Creek
Winnebago Creek
Trout Run
Garvin Brook

79. Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species