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NEURAL NETWORKS AND BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION IN PREDICTION OF OUTCOME OF NON-SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER PATIENTS AFTER COMPLETE LOBECTOMIES AND PNEUMONECTOMIES      Oleg Kshivets, MD, PhD Surgery Department,Siauliai Cancer Center, Lithuania The Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland Annual  Scientific  Meeting ,  London , the UK, March  5-8, 2005.
Abstract ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Factors: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Main Problem of Analysis of Alive Supersystems (e.g. Lung Cancer Patient Homeostasis):  Phenomenon of «Combinatorial Explosion» ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Basis: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Antropometric Factors: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Radical Procedures: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Combined &   E xtensive  R adical  P rocedures with  R esection of  P ericardium,  L eft  A trium,  A orta,  V ena  C ava  S uperior,  V ena  A zygos,  C arina,  Trachea, D iaphragm,  C hest  W all , Ribs, etc.……………………. 143 Sistematic Mediastinal Lymph Node-N2 Dissection………….. 386
Staging: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after  Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies by TNMG-system (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Survival Rate of Lung Cancer Patients after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (R0) (n=511): ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Adjuvant Therapy after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Significant  Factors  between Lung Cancer Losses & 5-Year Survivors  (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Significant  Factors  between Lung Cancer Losses & 5-Year Survivors  (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Significant  Factors  between Lung Cancer Losses & 5-Year Survivors  (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Product-Limit (Kaplan-Maier) Analysis Results in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=511)  Graph of Survival Times vs. Cum. Proportion Surviving
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
Results of Multivariate Proportional Hazard Cox Regression Analysis: Chi2=312.447; df=37; n=511; P=0.000000 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Multivariate Proportional Hazard Cox Regression Analysis: Chi2=312.447; df=37; n=511; P=0.000000 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Multivariate Proportional Hazard Cox Regression Analysis: Chi2=312.447; df=37; n=511; P=0.000000 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Multifactor Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=511)
Results of Discriminant Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Logistic Regression Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) Chi2=158.07; df=14; P=0.00000; Odds ratio=9.71 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Clustering in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Multifactor Clustering of Clinicomorphologic Factors in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of  Correspondence  Analysis in Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
Results of  Correspondence  Analysis in Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
Results of  Correspondence  Analysis in Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
Results of  Correspondence  Analysis in Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
Classification Tree in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Classification Tree in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Neural Networks in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)     Error=0.0456; Area under ROC Curve=0.996; Correct Classification Rate=99.8% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N0 after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=274)   Error=0.00318; Area under ROC Curve=1.0; Correct Classification Rate=100% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N1 after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=115)   Error=0.0007; Area under ROC Curve=1.0; Correct Classification Rate=100% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N2 after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=92)   Error=0.0008; Area under ROC Curve=1.0; Correct Classification Rate=100% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decision  Tree in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival  with N0 (n=274) and with N2 (n=92)  after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies
Results of  Kohonen Self-Organizing  Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N 0 (n=274) and with N2 (n=92)  after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival   after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after  Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Prediction of  Lung  Cancer Patients Survival after  Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations  &  Blood Glucose Level  in  Prediction  of Lung Cancer  Patients Survival  (n= 481 )
Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations  &  Blood Glucose Level  in  Prediction  of Lung Cancer  Patients Survival  (n= 481 )
Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations  &  Blood Glucose Level  in  Prediction  of Lung Cancer  Patients Survival  (n= 481 )
Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations  &  Blood Glucose Level  in  Prediction  of Lung Cancer  Patients Survival  (n= 481 )
Networks between Clinicopathologic, Biochemic, Hemostasis & Hematologic Data and 5-Year Survival of Lung cancer Patients after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
SEPATH Networks in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
Lung Cancer Dynamics
 
Conclusions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Patents: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Address: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Kshivets O. Lung Cancer Surgery

  • 1. NEURAL NETWORKS AND BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION IN PREDICTION OF OUTCOME OF NON-SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER PATIENTS AFTER COMPLETE LOBECTOMIES AND PNEUMONECTOMIES     Oleg Kshivets, MD, PhD Surgery Department,Siauliai Cancer Center, Lithuania The Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland Annual Scientific Meeting , London , the UK, March 5-8, 2005.
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  • 8. Combined & E xtensive R adical P rocedures with R esection of P ericardium, L eft A trium, A orta, V ena C ava S uperior, V ena A zygos, C arina, Trachea, D iaphragm, C hest W all , Ribs, etc.……………………. 143 Sistematic Mediastinal Lymph Node-N2 Dissection………….. 386
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  • 16. Product-Limit (Kaplan-Maier) Analysis Results in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=511) Graph of Survival Times vs. Cum. Proportion Surviving
  • 17. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
  • 18. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
  • 19. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
  • 20. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
  • 21. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) (n=511)
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  • 25. Results of Multifactor Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=511)
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  • 29. Results of Multifactor Clustering of Clinicomorphologic Factors in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 30. Results of Correspondence Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
  • 31. Results of Correspondence Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
  • 32. Results of Correspondence Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
  • 33. Results of Correspondence Analysis in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n= 481 )
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  • 35. Classification Tree in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
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  • 41. Decision Tree in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N0 (n=274) and with N2 (n=92) after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies
  • 42. Results of Kohonen Self-Organizing Neural Networks Computing in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival with N 0 (n=274) and with N2 (n=92) after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies
  • 43. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
  • 44. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
  • 45. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
  • 46. Cumulative Proportion Lung Cancer Patients Surviving (Kaplan-Meier) with N0 (n=297), with N1-2 (n=214), with N1 (n=116) and with N2 (n=98)
  • 47.
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  • 49. Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 50. Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 51. Results of Bootstrap simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 52.
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  • 54. Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations & Blood Glucose Level in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival (n= 481 )
  • 55. Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations & Blood Glucose Level in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival (n= 481 )
  • 56. Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations & Blood Glucose Level in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival (n= 481 )
  • 57. Ratio of Erythrocytes, Leucocytes, Eosinophils, Healthy Cells and Cancer Cell Populations & Blood Glucose Level in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival (n= 481 )
  • 58. Networks between Clinicopathologic, Biochemic, Hemostasis & Hematologic Data and 5-Year Survival of Lung cancer Patients after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 59. Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 60. Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 61. Results of Monte Carlo Simulation in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 62. SEPATH Networks in Prediction of Lung Cancer Patients Survival after Lobectomies and Pneumonectomies (n=481)
  • 63. Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
  • 64. Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
  • 65. Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
  • 66. Holling-Tenner Models of Alive Supersystem “Lung Cancer-Cytotoxic Cell Population ”
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