Ipsos MORI’s first Political Monitor in 2016 shows the Conservatives opening up their biggest lead over Labour on a number of key party image attributes. When asked which of the parties has the best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems, 43% of Britons say the Conservatives with 16% choosing Labour. This is an increase of 9 points for the Conservatives and a fall of 7 points for Labour since June 2014, and is the biggest lead for the Conservatives since we started asking the question in 1989.

1. 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR
29.01.2016

2. VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
39%
33%
10%
5%
8%
5%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +6 Conservative lead = +9
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
40%
31%
11%
4%
7%
7%
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and
always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have
given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3

4. SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
+2.5%
swing from December
2015
-0.5%
swing from December
2015
-1.5%
swing from December
2015
-1.5%
swing from December
2015
-1.5%
swing from December
2015
-9 Net -18 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 Net
SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 56%

6. Satisfaction with Party leaders Dec’8 – Jan’16
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
6HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
42%
31%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
31%
22%

7. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8. David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
8ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
51%
7%
January 2016 August 2006 –January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-06
Oct-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -9
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

9. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 332 Conservative supporters 18+ 23rd – 25th January 2016.
9ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
82%
14%
4%
January 2016 July 2006 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May06
Aug06
Jan07
Jun07
Sep07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 82
DISSATISFIED 14
DON’T KNOW 4
Net = +68
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Jan-16

10. 31%
49%
20%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
SATISFIED 31
DISSATISFIED 49
DON’T KNOW 20
Net = -18
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

11. 54%
32%
14%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 306 Labour supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = +22
January 2016 September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

12. 22%
32%
46%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
12ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 46%
Net = -10
September 2015 – January 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

13. 61%
22%
17%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 72 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016 (Lib Dem supporters only)
SATISFIED 61%
DISSATISFIED 22%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = +39
September 2015 – January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

14. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
31%
49%
20%
January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 49%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = -18
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

15. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
87%
12%
1%
January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016
SATISFIED 87%
DISSATISFIED 12%
DON’T KNOW 1%
Net = +75
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

16. ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

17. Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-04
Dec-04
Sep-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
May-08
Feb-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Jun-11
Mar-12
Dec-12
Sep-13
Jun-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
IMPROVE 26%
STAY THE SAME 31%
GET WORSE 39%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -13

18. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec1997
Jul1998
Feb1999
Sep1999
Apr2000
Nov2000
Jun2001
Jan2002
Aug2002
Mar2003
Oct2003
May2004
Dec2004
Jul2005
Feb2006
Sep2006
Apr2007
Nov2007
Jun2008
Jan2009
Aug2009
Mar2010
Oct2010
May2011
Dec2011
Jul2012
Feb2013
Sep2013
Apr2014
Nov2014
Jun2015
Jan2016
-13

19. EUROPE

20. 61
52 53
50
27
39
36
38
12
9
11 12
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Stay in Get out Don’t know
European referendum
Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
20
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21. Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Trend since 1977
21
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
26%
60% 63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
61%
50%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-78
Jan-79
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT

22. EU Referendum question:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Base: 513 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
22SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
36%
52%
12%
32%
58%
10%
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
EUROPEAN UNION?
December 2015
36%
55%
9%
January 2016

23. 6 5 4 5
32
32
30
26
37 36 37 38
20
24
26 25
4 3 3
5
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don’t know
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU
deal for Britain
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.
23
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD
DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONFIDENT 38
NOT CONFIDENT 57
CONFIDENT 37
NOT CONFIDENT 60
CONFIDENT 34
NOT CONFIDENT 63
CONFIDENT 31
NOT CONFIDENT 63

24. 57%
40%
3%
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
24
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: 919 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 918 British adults 18+ giving an opinion, 17th – 19th October 2015
January 2016
58%
39%
3%

25. 1%
17%
64%
13%
5%
Will Cameron achieve his goals?
25
DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS IN
THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW
December 2015
2%
18%
64%
11%
5%
January 2016

26. PARTY IMAGE

27. Parties and their leaders, and whether they look after
the interests of people like you
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
43%
16%
4%2%
3%
16%
16%
….has the best team of leaders to deal with the
country’s problems?
….would be best at looking after the interests of people like
you
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
27
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW
33%
29%
8%
5%
5%
9%
10%

28. Parties and their policies
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
25%
6%
4%
4%
10%
15%
….has the best policies for the country as a whole? ….is most clear and united about what its polices should be
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
28
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW
33%
13%
11%5%
8%
15%
15%

29. SHAREHOLDER DIVIDEND AND THE
LIVING WAGE

30. Support for withholding shareholder dividend if do not
pay the living wage. (Split Sample)
30
I’D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE LIVING WAGE. THE LIVING WAGE IS A SALARY WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR WORKERS TO HAVE A
NORMAL STANDARD OF LIVING, MEANING THEY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD EVERYDAY THINGS LIKE FOOD, TRANSPORT
AND PAYING BILLS.
Source: Ipsos MORI
17%
66%
5%
SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
24%
60%
5%
A) Does not mention Jeremy Corbyn B) Mentions Jeremy Corbyn
Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
IT HAS BEEN PROPOSED [BY JEREMY CORBYN] THAT COMPANIES SHOULD BE BANNED FROM PAYING THEIR SHAREHOLDERS DIVIDENDS
UNLESS THEIR STAFF EARN THE LIVING WAGE. PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THIS IDEA?

31. TRIDENT AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS

32. Support for nuclear disarmament (Split Sample)
32
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
58%
34%
8%
SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
70%
24%
6%
A) Could you please tell me whether you support
or oppose the following policy? Get rid of all
nuclear weapons in Britain.
B) Could you please tell me whether you support or
oppose the following policy? Get rid of all nuclear
weapons in Britain even if other countries keep theirs.

33. 52%
28%
16%
5%
Future of Britain's Trident submarines
AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE IS A DEBATE CURRENTLY ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD REPLACE ITS TRIDENT SUBMARINES WHICH ARE
NEARING THE END OF THEIR LIFE. THESE ARE THE SUBMARINES FROM WHICH BRITAIN WERE TO LAUNCH NUCLEAR MISSILES IF IT WAS EVER TO
DO SO
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BUILD NEW SUBMARINES AND
HAVE THEM CARRY NUCLEAR
WARHEADS
BUILD NEW SUBMARINES BUT
DO NOT HAVE THEM CARRY
NUCLEAR WARHEADS
DO NOT BUILD NEW
SUBMARINES SO TO
DISCONTINUE THE TRIDENT
PROGRAMME
DON’T KNOW
33
Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016
IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, JEREMY CORBYN, THE LABOUR LEADER, SAID IF THESE SUBMARINES ARE REPLACED THEY "DON’T HAVE TO HAVE
NUCLEAR WARHEADS ON THEM". THIS WOULD MEAN THE SUBMARINES WOULD BE REPLACED BUT DO NOT CARRY NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DO SO.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ABOUT RENEWING BRITAIN’S TRIDENT SUBMARINES?

34. 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR